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Woman pumps gas outside of Wawa storefront
Saul loeb

Energy prices are surging, and the economy is already feeling the pinch of higher fuel costs though it is far from stalling out.

There is an unusual coincidence of much higher oil, natural gas and coal prices, combined with other rising commodities and supply chain disruptions. That perfect storm of shortages and higher prices begs the question of whether the economy could go into a serious tailspin or even a recession.

Economists say, for now, the jump in prices is not the type of oil shock that will turn U.S. growth negative, but there will be economic consequences of higher energy costs, particularly in places like Europe where natural gas prices have skyrocketed.

“Periods of trending oil prices tend not to be a problem,” JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman said. “The periods of spiking oil prices tend to be what gets you into trouble. They tend to be largely supply driven, and they tend to have disruptive elements that are more broad in terms of their potential drags on growth.”

“We do have a rise in energy that will be a drag on fourth quarter growth,” he added. “It’s not at a point where we’re warning about recession, but it’s at the point where you have to worry about it hurting growth in a material way.”

American consumers have already been paying up for gasoline, and heating and electricity costs could rise more this winter. Oil prices are up more than 65% this year so far, while natural gas prices have jumped more than 112% since January.

“We’re looking at GDP growth in the 4% to 6% range … We would have to see massive doubling and tripling of oil prices for it to have such a bad effect that we go … to negative growth,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle.

Since last October, gasoline prices have risen about $1.10 per gallon, and are now at $3.27 per gallon of unleaded, according to AAA. Oil prices were depressed and even turned negative when the pandemic shut down the economy in 2020. Now, forecasts for $100 oil are getting more common, as West Texas Intermediate oil futures trade above $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014.

“What’s different about this is normally it’s oil that leads an energy crisis, but in this case it’s the tail that’s being wagged by natural gas, coal and renewables,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “Oil is filling in to make up for the fact that [liquified natural gas] is maxed out and wind in Europe has been a lot lower than normal.”

Trouble brewing in energy markets

Yergin said oil will likely remain under pressure, and within several months about 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day could be used as a substitute for natural gas in Europe and Asia, where supplies are short. Oil can be substituted for electricity generation and in some manufacturing.

Citigroup forecasts a winter price shock that could see natural gas prices in Europe average over $30 per one million British thermal unit in the fourth quarter and over $32 in Asia. But Citi energy analysts also say if there is a very cold winter that could spike as high as $100 mmBtus, the equivalent of about a $580 barrel of oil. By comparison, U.S. natural gas futures are currently trading at $5.25 per mmBtu.

Coal prices have also been rising and supplies are short, creating a power supply crunch in China. The country burns coal to generate electricity, but the inventory at its power plants faced a 10-year low in August. That has also increased the demand for natural gas.

“While China unambiguously needs as much coal as it can get its hands on to avert a [fourth-quarter] slowdown due to the tyranny of rolling power shortages, geopolitical tensions with Australia have waylaid the most convenient source of high-calorific coal from Down Under,” Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Asia and Oceania treasury department at Mizuho, said in a recent note.

Economists say the rise in energy prices would have to be sharper and much more prolonged to cause a recession.

Bernstein energy analysts looked at past periods where prices rose sharply, and found that recessions followed periods where energy costs were at 7% of global GDP, as they reached in October.

They note the probability of recession rises when the energy costs stay above that level for a period, greater than a year.

“While the recent spike in energy costs may prove transient, a protracted period of energy costs [greater than a year] or further rise in oil to over US$100/bbl could trigger a slowdown in global economic growth as disposable income gets squeezed,” Bernstein analysts wrote.

Even though the share of energy costs is the highest in nearly a decade, on an annual basis it is still 5.2% of GDP so far in 2021, and that is not yet a dangerous level, they added.

“Annual energy costs as a percentage of GDP are above the 30-year average of 4.4%, but below that of 1979 or 2008 when annual energy costs reached over 7% of GDP,” the Bernstein analysts wrote. “If energy prices rises prove to be transient, then the risk of an energy induced recession remains low.”

U.S. as a producer

Changes in the U.S. energy industry over the past two decades have provided some insulation from some of the current global energy crisis.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the hit from an energy price surge would not be all negative, since the U.S. is now a large energy producer. The U.S. produces about 11.3 million barrels a day, and exports oil and refined products.

Even with its huge production, the U.S. remains an importer of crude, bringing in an average 3.8 million barrels a day over four weeks, according to the latest Energy Information Administration weekly data.

The U.S. is providing natural gas to Europe and Asia, in the form of LNG exports, but U.S. gas prices are tied more to the domestic market and have been elevated because U.S. supplies remain lower than normal for this time of year.

Zandi said the dominance of the U.S. energy industry also has a positive impact on energy-producing parts of the economy as prices rise.

“That doesn’t mean that higher energy prices under certain scenarios wouldn’t cause a recession,” he said. “It’s just much less likely, and it would take much higher prices than it has in the past.”

Zandi said every penny increase in the cost of a gallon of gas costs U.S. consumers $1 billion. When it rises $1, as it has in the last year, that’s about $100 billion.

Another $1 jump would be harmful.

“That’s $100 billion, just a half percent of GDP. It would do damage. It would ding the economy, but I don’t think it would derail it,” he said. “If it went to $5.25, that’s $200 billion. That’s a percent of GDP. If energy prices are rising like that it’s likely other prices are rising.”

The immediate impact of higher energy costs is higher inflation, which creates a drag on consumer spending.

Kasman said the increase in energy prices, as of last week, would add about 2.5% to the consumer price index in the fourth quarter, if prices remain at that level. That could translate to a drag of a half percentage point or more on GDP, he noted.

“That is not small, but it’s not a recession,” he said. Kasman said he expects a pretty strong global economy next year, but the higher energy costs do raise concerns there could be an even big enough drag on purchasing power and that could chip away at growth.

Kasman said the impacts gets worse, the higher prices go. JPMorgan economists ran an analysis where they projected another 50% jump in energy prices.

“In this scenario, in which crude oil prices move quickly above US$100/bbl, the shock to US incomes is very large — as CPI inflation is pushed up by 10%-pts annualized — nearly twice the impact we estimate for the Euro area,” they said in a note. “While this scenario does not appear likely, it is important to recognize the threat posed by the combination of supply shocks now buffeting the global economy.”

JPMorgan forecasts fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth of 3.5%, and now expects the third quarter grew at a 4% pace, down from an earlier forecast of 8%. The firm expects average growth of 3.5% next year. They also forecast CPI gains to average more than 4% during the second half of the year.

CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Saheli Roy Choudhury contributed to this report.

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BYD takes the spotlight in the heart of Europe after sales surge by +750% in April

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May 6, 2025

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BYD takes the spotlight in the heart of Europe after sales surge by +750% in April

BYD-Germany-sales-April

China’s EV leader is quickly making a name for itself in Europe. In April, BYD outsold Tesla in Germany and the UK as sales surged in the region. With new models on the way, this looks to be just the start of BYD’s global sales run.

BYD sales outpace Tesla in Germany and the UK in April

BYD is like a freight train right now. There’s no slowing its roll. The company sold over 380,000 new energy vehicles (NEVs) last month, up 21% from April 2024.

Like most Chinese automakers, BYD reports NEV sales, or electric (EV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles. Since it stopped making gas-powered cars in 2022, BYD has focused entirely on EVs and PHEVs. So far, it has paid off.

For the first time in over a year, BYD’s electric vehicles outsold its plug-in models. Last month, the company sold over 195,000 electric cars (+45% YOY) and nearly 176,000 (+0%) PHEVs.

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Although its EVs got most of the attention, BYD sold over 79,000 vehicles overseas last month, its fifth straight month of growth. Through April, the company has sold over 285,000 vehicles in overseas markets, more than doubling from last year.

BYD-sales-Germany-April
BYD launches Sealion 7 smart electric SUV at 2024 Paris Motor Show (Source: BYD)

According to the latest sales numbers released by the German federal road traffic agency, KBA, BYD even outsold Tesla in Germany, Europe’s largest auto market.

BYD sold 1,566 vehicles in Germany last month, an over eightfold (+756%) increase from April 2024. In comparison, Tesla’s sales fell 46% with just 855 cars sold in Germany last month.

BYD-sales-Germany-April
Michael Shu, Managing Director of BYD Europe, speaks at the IAA (Source: BYD)

Closing the gap in Europe

Through the first four months of 2025, BYD sold 2,791 vehicles (+385%) in Germany, while Tesla remains ahead at 5,820 (-60%).

And it’s not just in Germany. BYD outsold Tesla in the UK last month as well. Data from SMNT shows BYD sold 2,511 vehicles in April 2025. Tesla only sold 512 vehicles in the UK last month.

BYD-overseas-EV-sales
BYD’s wide-reaching electric vehicle portfolio (Source: BYD)

BYD is quickly closing in on Tesla in the UK. Through April, BYD sold 11,782 vehicles while Tesla’s sales reached 12,986 vehicles.

Will China’s EV leader overtake Tesla in Europe? With several new vehicles rolling out, BYD is poised to see even more demand later this year. After launching its luxury Denza brand last month, BYD’s cheapest EV, the Seagull, is set to arrive later this year.

BYD-Seagull-EV
BYD Seagull EV (Dolphin Mini) Source: BYD

BYD will launch the low-cost EV later this year in Europe under the name Dolphin Surf with prices starting under £20,000 ($26,000). In China, the Seagull starts at under $10,000 (69,800 yuan) and was BYD’s top seller last month with over 55,000 units sold.

According to forecasts from S&P Global Mobility, BYD’s sales are expected to double in Europe from 83,000 last year to 186,000 in 2025. By 2029, that number could reach upwards of 400,000.

As it looks to drive growth this year, BYD is aggressively expanding overseas. BYD’s fourth car transport ship, the “BYD Shenzhen,” officially set sail last week with enough room for 9,200 vehicles. It is now the world’s largest.

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Game-changing Lectric XP4 next-gen electric bike launched, shocking industry once again

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3 hours ago

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May 6, 2025

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Game-changing Lectric XP4 next-gen electric bike launched, shocking industry once again

In true Lectric style, North America’s largest e-bike company just unveiled the latest generation of its best-selling electric bike in a high-energy, adrenaline-fueled product launch this morning. The Lectric XP4 is the newest generation of the ultra-popular e-bike line, and once again brings a shocking level of upgrades at price points never before seen in the industry.

To put it simply, Lectric has done it again; they’ve absolutely crushed it and set a new high watermark for value in the US folding e-bike market.

The XP line is the best-selling electric bike in the US, so this was bound to be a hotly-anticipated launch. With roughly 1 out of every 10 electric bikes sold in the US being a Lectric XP (out of many hundreds of models available in the market), any new launch in the product line was set to grab eyeballs. And despite the extremely high expectations, Lectric appears to have risen to not only meet them but likely exceed what most could have expected at this price point.

The launch of the new XP4 actually includes a pair of launches, with the base 500W model offering the same $999 price tag we’ve come to know ever since the XP 2.0 days. A new long-range XP4, which swaps the 10.4Ah battery for a massive 17.5Ah battery and upgrades the motor to 750W, bares only a slightly higher $1,299 price tag.

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“Because this model is so important to us and our riding community, we were determined to hold the line on price,” said Lectric eBikes co-founder and CEO Levi Conlow. “While other e-bike companies continue to raise prices and launch new products at higher price points, we know riders are going to appreciate Lectric going against the grain and making huge improvements for the same entry price we set more than four years ago.”

Levi isn’t paying lip service there, either. Both models share a number of key upgrades covering everything from the hardware design to the included componentry, and even the riding feel.

Both models include a new in-house designed torque sensor, offering smoother and more responsive pedal assist across the full range of power levels. A new 56-tooth chainring is larger and provides a more comfortable pedal cadence at higher speeds, meaning those taking advantage of the Class 3-capable 28 mph (45 km/h) speed can do so without their feet needing to spin uncomfortably fast.

The handlebars now feature an upgraded TFT color display with a built in USB-C port for phone and device charging. Having personally tested the e-bike yesterday, I can attest to just how beautifully designed the TFT screen truly is, providing much more information to the rider yet in a neatly laid out way that keeps it clear and easy to read, even in bright sunlight.

My full first ride experience will be coming soon, but first let’s continue with what makes these models so new and innovative.

The frame has been redesigned with a novel rack setup, a larger main frame tube to accommodate the longer-range battery, and a new handlebar stem that provides a more comfortable reach in the cockpit. That rear rack adds to both the bike’s appearance and utility, providing a color and styling accent but also offering more compatibility for accessories mounted to its round tubes while still maintaining the boxier tubes consistent with the design legacy across the XP models’ successive frames.

New hydraulic disc brakes were developed specifically for Lectric and provide punchier stops than the previous version’s hydraulic disc brakes. The brakes’ model number of 602 even pays subtle homage to the area code in Phoenix, Lectric’s headquarters.

The transmission also received an upgrade, with the lower tier 7-speed Tourney derailleur getting replaced with a step up in Shimano’s hierarchy to an 8-speed Altus.

Other hardware improvements on the bike include the quick-release pedals, which have been redesigned, increasing the quality and making them easier to use. The new derailleur is matched with new trigger shifters on the right side of the handlebars paired with Lectric’s upgraded locking ergonomic bar ends. The new shifters and bar ends required a new throttle though, resulting in an updated left-side paddle-style thumb throttle.

The lighting on the XP4 has also been upgraded, now including rear turn signals.

The keyway for locking the battery has been relocated to the non-drive side of the main tube, making it easier to access, and is located next to a newly designed cover for the charging port and on/off button for the battery.

Like all of Lectric’s e-bikes, the XP4 is compliant with UL2849, and the two battery sizes are both compatible with a 5A fast charger that provides a full recharge in either 2 or 3.5 hours for the smaller or larger battery option.

New 20×3.0 tires include a mixed-terrain tread with a novel design that creates a smoother center patch for quieter riding on smooth surfaces like asphalt but retains enough knobbiness on the edges for better grip in off-road riding conditions. The tires’ quiet ride has been specifically designed to complement the ultra-quiet Stealth motor that Lectric has brought from its other models to the new XP4.

Unlike the XP 3.0 that had previously been available in just white or black, the new XP4 comes in multiple color options, a nod to customers who often asked the company for more variety in colorways. The XP4 now includes color options of Stratus White, Tempest Gray, Raindrop Blue, and Pine Green. The bike is also available in two frame styles of standard and step-over.

Pre-orders are now open for the XP4, priced at either $999 or $1,299 for the 500W and 750W versions, with shipping expected to begin next month.

Electrek’s Take

It’s hard to overstate how big of a deal the XP4’s launch is, especially considering that the starting price has remained the same affordable $999. At a time when tariffs are forcing other companies to increase prices, the XP4 stands head and shoulders above other folding e-bikes in the US market, not just on price but also on features.

If you take the $1,299 long-range version with the 750W motor and 840Wh battery, it’s easy to see how far ahead it is of the competition. If the only thing Lectric had done was put that big battery and torque sensor in it, the bike already would have surpassed any other leading brand’s folding e-bike on value. There just isn’t another torque sensor-based 840Wh folding e-bike out there at this price point. But then Lectric went so much further. All of the additions are like a mountain of cherries on top of an already alluring XP4 sundae. From the beautiful new TFT display to the super punchy new brakes, from the upgraded derailleur to the quieter tires and motor, from the easy-to-use quick-release pedals to the improved ergonomics of the handlebars – it’s just more heaped on top of more.

The one feature I wish they would have included would have been Apple FindMy integration to allow for easy tracking of a lost or stolen e-bike. Trust me, I tried to plant the bug in Lectric co-founder and Chief Innovation Officer Robby Deziel’s ear, but to no avail. Oh well, maybe but there’s still hope for including location tracking on the XP5.

There’s one thing for sure though: Everyone else is still competing for second place against Lectric. That’s nothing new, but now the gap between Lectric and others has continued to grow. There was already no better option when it comes to bang-for-your-buck in the folding e-bike space, and now Lectric has grown that value gap even further.

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These are the 3 things driving Coterra’s sell-off — and how we’re viewing the stock now

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May 6, 2025

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These are the 3 things driving Coterra's sell-off — and how we're viewing the stock now

An oil pumpjack is shown near the Callon Petroleum vicinity on March 27, 2024 in Monahans, Texas.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Coterra Energy is cutting back on its oil drilling in response to sagging crude prices and spending more on natural gas production — but that move, announced alongside first-quarter results, is being overshadowed by some operational concerns and leading to a stock sell-off Tuesday.

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