Sharp surge in energy prices threatens economic recovery and is already slowing growth

Published

4 years ago

October 12, 2021

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Woman pumps gas outside of Wawa storefront

Saul loeb

Energy prices are surging, and the economy is already feeling the pinch of higher fuel costs though it is far from stalling out.

There is an unusual coincidence of much higher oil, natural gas and coal prices, combined with other rising commodities and supply chain disruptions. That perfect storm of shortages and higher prices begs the question of whether the economy could go into a serious tailspin or even a recession.

Economists say, for now, the jump in prices is not the type of oil shock that will turn U.S. growth negative, but there will be economic consequences of higher energy costs, particularly in places like Europe where natural gas prices have skyrocketed.

“Periods of trending oil prices tend not to be a problem,” JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman said. “The periods of spiking oil prices tend to be what gets you into trouble. They tend to be largely supply driven, and they tend to have disruptive elements that are more broad in terms of their potential drags on growth.”

“We do have a rise in energy that will be a drag on fourth quarter growth,” he added. “It’s not at a point where we’re warning about recession, but it’s at the point where you have to worry about it hurting growth in a material way.”

American consumers have already been paying up for gasoline, and heating and electricity costs could rise more this winter. Oil prices are up more than 65% this year so far, while natural gas prices have jumped more than 112% since January.

“We’re looking at GDP growth in the 4% to 6% range … We would have to see massive doubling and tripling of oil prices for it to have such a bad effect that we go … to negative growth,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle.

Since last October, gasoline prices have risen about $1.10 per gallon, and are now at $3.27 per gallon of unleaded, according to AAA. Oil prices were depressed and even turned negative when the pandemic shut down the economy in 2020. Now, forecasts for $100 oil are getting more common, as West Texas Intermediate oil futures trade above $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014.

“What’s different about this is normally it’s oil that leads an energy crisis, but in this case it’s the tail that’s being wagged by natural gas, coal and renewables,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “Oil is filling in to make up for the fact that [liquified natural gas] is maxed out and wind in Europe has been a lot lower than normal.”

Trouble brewing in energy markets

Yergin said oil will likely remain under pressure, and within several months about 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day could be used as a substitute for natural gas in Europe and Asia, where supplies are short. Oil can be substituted for electricity generation and in some manufacturing.

Citigroup forecasts a winter price shock that could see natural gas prices in Europe average over $30 per one million British thermal unit in the fourth quarter and over $32 in Asia. But Citi energy analysts also say if there is a very cold winter that could spike as high as $100 mmBtus, the equivalent of about a $580 barrel of oil. By comparison, U.S. natural gas futures are currently trading at $5.25 per mmBtu.

Coal prices have also been rising and supplies are short, creating a power supply crunch in China. The country burns coal to generate electricity, but the inventory at its power plants faced a 10-year low in August. That has also increased the demand for natural gas.

“While China unambiguously needs as much coal as it can get its hands on to avert a [fourth-quarter] slowdown due to the tyranny of rolling power shortages, geopolitical tensions with Australia have waylaid the most convenient source of high-calorific coal from Down Under,” Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Asia and Oceania treasury department at Mizuho, said in a recent note.

Economists say the rise in energy prices would have to be sharper and much more prolonged to cause a recession.

Bernstein energy analysts looked at past periods where prices rose sharply, and found that recessions followed periods where energy costs were at 7% of global GDP, as they reached in October.

They note the probability of recession rises when the energy costs stay above that level for a period, greater than a year.

“While the recent spike in energy costs may prove transient, a protracted period of energy costs [greater than a year] or further rise in oil to over US$100/bbl could trigger a slowdown in global economic growth as disposable income gets squeezed,” Bernstein analysts wrote.

Even though the share of energy costs is the highest in nearly a decade, on an annual basis it is still 5.2% of GDP so far in 2021, and that is not yet a dangerous level, they added.

“Annual energy costs as a percentage of GDP are above the 30-year average of 4.4%, but below that of 1979 or 2008 when annual energy costs reached over 7% of GDP,” the Bernstein analysts wrote. “If energy prices rises prove to be transient, then the risk of an energy induced recession remains low.”

U.S. as a producer

Changes in the U.S. energy industry over the past two decades have provided some insulation from some of the current global energy crisis.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the hit from an energy price surge would not be all negative, since the U.S. is now a large energy producer. The U.S. produces about 11.3 million barrels a day, and exports oil and refined products.

Even with its huge production, the U.S. remains an importer of crude, bringing in an average 3.8 million barrels a day over four weeks, according to the latest Energy Information Administration weekly data.

The U.S. is providing natural gas to Europe and Asia, in the form of LNG exports, but U.S. gas prices are tied more to the domestic market and have been elevated because U.S. supplies remain lower than normal for this time of year.

Zandi said the dominance of the U.S. energy industry also has a positive impact on energy-producing parts of the economy as prices rise.

“That doesn’t mean that higher energy prices under certain scenarios wouldn’t cause a recession,” he said. “It’s just much less likely, and it would take much higher prices than it has in the past.”

Zandi said every penny increase in the cost of a gallon of gas costs U.S. consumers $1 billion. When it rises $1, as it has in the last year, that’s about $100 billion.

Another $1 jump would be harmful.

“That’s $100 billion, just a half percent of GDP. It would do damage. It would ding the economy, but I don’t think it would derail it,” he said. “If it went to $5.25, that’s $200 billion. That’s a percent of GDP. If energy prices are rising like that it’s likely other prices are rising.”

The immediate impact of higher energy costs is higher inflation, which creates a drag on consumer spending.

Kasman said the increase in energy prices, as of last week, would add about 2.5% to the consumer price index in the fourth quarter, if prices remain at that level. That could translate to a drag of a half percentage point or more on GDP, he noted.

“That is not small, but it’s not a recession,” he said. Kasman said he expects a pretty strong global economy next year, but the higher energy costs do raise concerns there could be an even big enough drag on purchasing power and that could chip away at growth.

Kasman said the impacts gets worse, the higher prices go. JPMorgan economists ran an analysis where they projected another 50% jump in energy prices.

“In this scenario, in which crude oil prices move quickly above US$100/bbl, the shock to US incomes is very large — as CPI inflation is pushed up by 10%-pts annualized — nearly twice the impact we estimate for the Euro area,” they said in a note. “While this scenario does not appear likely, it is important to recognize the threat posed by the combination of supply shocks now buffeting the global economy.”

JPMorgan forecasts fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth of 3.5%, and now expects the third quarter grew at a 4% pace, down from an earlier forecast of 8%. The firm expects average growth of 3.5% next year. They also forecast CPI gains to average more than 4% during the second half of the year.

CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Saheli Roy Choudhury contributed to this report.

Environment

MOKE launches its 50 MPH open-top electric fun-mobiles in California

Published

10 hours ago

December 11, 2025

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MOKE launches its 50 MPH open-top electric fun-mobiles in California

Iconic British brand Moke International is officially landing in California, bringing a splash of retro style and electric fun to the West Coast with the launch of its California Collection. The medium-speed, open-air electric vehicles – reminiscent of classic beach buggies – are now street-legal in the state, with reservation deposits now open.

It’s a move that’s been years in the making, and we’re finally ready to see these fun-looking rides roll out on US streets thanks to a retail partnership with Shaver Automotive.

The California Collection marks the first time MOKE’s EVs are being sold in the US as fully compliant, street-legal vehicles, following a multi-year process to obtain certification under California’s tough emissions and safety regulations. The vehicles have now gone beyond the 25 MPH limitations of Low Speed Vehicles, doubling that figure to offer rides at up to 50 MPH (80 km/h).

The collection also includes three new colorways inspired by the nostalgic hues of the Golden State: ‘Sonoma Red’, ‘Laguna Blue’ and ‘Venice White.’

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As the company explained, “This foray into the state follows MOKE’s groundbreaking achievement as the first low-volume EV manufacturer to secure California Air Resources Board (CARB) approval. With unmatched quality, all genuine MOKEs are handcrafted in the UK, with over 70% of parts sourced from Europe. A limited quantity of 325 MOKEs will be available to purchase throughout the US in 2026.”

Originally based on a British military vehicle from the 1960s, the Moke evolved into a cult-favorite beach car beloved in tropical destinations from the Caribbean to the French Riviera.

Now, it’s gone all-electric, with a 54-mile (87 km) range and a top speed of 50 mph (80 km/h) from a 33 kW motor that prioritizes fun over freeway.

“Launching in California feels like a true homecoming for us at MOKE,” said Lorne Vary, CEO of MOKE International. “California’s love of sunshine, freedom, and outdoor adventure reflects everything our brand stands for. Partnering with Shaver Automotive means we can finally share that feeling with Californians who have been waiting for their MOKE moment.”

Sonoma Red, MOKE International California Collection

The Electric MOKE is available for order now in California, via Shaver Automotive, with prices starting from $49,500. That puts it well into premium territory, meaning it likely won’t replace the family car, but could be a fun plaything to park at your beach house… for those who own a beach house.

While the MOKE won’t be replacing your daily commuter or long-range EV, it could be the perfect picturesque ride along a coastal road, in a resort rental fleet, or for anyone who values open-air, zero-emission fun over raw performance.

Electrek’s Take

We’ve seen a number of street-legal Low Speed Vehicles (LSVs) make their way into beach towns and gated communities in recent years, but few bring the retro flair and lifestyle appeal of the MOKE. And by going the low-volume manufacturer route, they get to offer speeds of twice that allowed by LSVs without needing to meet as many of the complicated Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (for better or for worse).

At nearly $50k, it’s a luxury toy, sure. But for the right buyer, it looks like an awesome time on four wheels. California might just be the perfect place for this beach cruiser comeback.

Oh, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t share the image below of Electrek’s founder Seth Weintraub from his youth when he used to ride old school Mokes around Macau, and with a left-hand manual 4-speed gearbox, no less!

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Environment

bp pulse cranks up DC fast charging with Arizona debut

Published

18 hours ago

December 10, 2025

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bp pulse cranks up DC fast charging with Arizona debut

bp pulse fast charging Arizona — Photo: bp pulse

bp pulse is continuing to roll out public DC fast charging across the US, and the company has opened its first-ever site in Arizona, along with new fast-charging locations in Texas, Florida, and Ohio.

In Arizona, bp pulse’s first site is now online at the Petro Travel Center in Eloy, just off Interstate 10 at Exit 200 (pictured). The location features 16 charging bays delivering up to 400 kilowatts, with both CCS and NACS connectors available. While charging, drivers can take advantage of the travel center’s onsite diner, convenience store, ATM, barber shop, and restrooms.

In South Florida, bp pulse’s new fast-charging site is at 2400 Miami Road in Fort Lauderdale, about three miles from Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International Airport. The site features 16 charging bays, offering a mix of 150 kW and 400 kW speeds, with both CCS and NACS connectors. Its proximity to the airport makes it a handy stop for ride-hail drivers, EV rental returns, and airport pickups and drop-offs, with hotels, restaurants, and convenience stores nearby.

Texas is also getting more high-power charging, with a new bp pulse site at the Petro Travel Center in El Paso, located off Interstate 10 at Exit 37. This location offers 12 charging bays capable of delivering up to 400 kW, again with both CCS and NACS connectors. Drivers can take advantage of the diner, convenience store, barber shop, and restrooms while they charge.

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In Ohio, bp pulse has opened a smaller but still high-powered site at a TravelCenters of America location in Hebron, just off Interstate 70 at Exit 126. The site includes six 400 kW charging bays with CCS and NACS connectors, along with access to a convenience store, fast-food options, and restrooms.

These openings are part of bp pulse’s broader plan to build out EV charging across bp’s retail footprint, including bp, Amoco, ampm, Thorntons, and TravelCenters of America locations. Many of those sites are designed to combine fast charging with food, restrooms, and other travel amenities. bp has also said it plans to begin adding EV chargers at Waffle House locations starting in 2026.

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Cadillac Lyriq, Chevy Blazer EV had some of the biggest lease price drops in December

Published

19 hours ago

December 10, 2025

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Cadillac Lyriq, Chevy Blazer EV had some of the biggest lease price drops in December

The Cadillac Lyriq and Chevy Blazer EV were among the vehicles that saw the biggest lease price drops in December.

Cadillac and Chevy EV lease prices drop in December

With the $7,500 federal EV tax credit now gone, automakers are filling the gap with their own incentives. Some are passing on the savings as bonus cash, conquest cash, lease discounts, and more.

Two General Motors electric SUVs, the Chevy Blazer EV and the Cadillac Lyriq, had some of the largest lease price drops of any vehicle in December.

The 2026 Cadillac Lyriq AWD Luxury model is now listed at $439 per month for 24 months. With $4,979 due at signing, the effective rate is $646, or $28 less per month than in November.

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That’s after the Lyriq already saw prices drop by $115 a month from October. However, the December deal includes a $2,000 competitive bonus for owners and lessees of a 2011 model year or newer non-GM vehicle.

The 2026 Chevy Blazer EV FWD LT is now available to lease for as low as $319 a month for 24 months. With $6,039 due at signing, the effective rate is $571 per month, about $60 less than in November. The deal includes a $750 competitive bonus and $1,000 customer cash allowance.

Chevy and Cadillac are offering discounts across their entire EV lineup. All 2025 Chevy electric vehicles, including the Blazer EV, Equinox EV, and Silverado EV, are available with 0% APR financing for 60 months.

Intestingly, the 2026 Chevy Equinox EV is also available with 0% APR financing, while the 2026 Blazer EV is listed with 1.9% APR for 36 months.

Cadillac is offering a $2,000 conquest or loyalty bonus for the 2026 Cadillac Vistiq and select 2025/2026 Optiq and Lyriq models, plus 2.9% APR for 60 months.

The 2026 Cadillac Optiq is available to lease for as low as $319 per month for 24 months, while the 2026 Vistiq is available to lease for $619 per month for 24 months.

Want to try one out? We’ve got you covered. Check out the links below to see what Cadillac and Chevy EVs are nearby.

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