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UK economic growth picked up in August as bars, restaurants and festivals benefited from a first full month without COVID restrictions in England, official figures show.

Gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – slightly below experts’ average forecast of 0.5% growth.

However the report also pointed to a setback for the previous month, with July GDP, initially estimated to have shown a small 0.1% increase, now believed to have seen a 0.1% decline.

People sit at an outdoor restaurant on the South Bank in London
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Restaurants and hotels boosted growth

That was after revisions to data from sectors including car manufacturing – an industry which has been badly hit by the global shortage of semiconductor chips.

Overall it meant that GDP in August was 0.8% below the pre-pandemic levels of February 2020, the ONS said.

Darren Morgan, ONS director of economic statistics, said: “The economy picked up in August as bars, restaurants and festivals benefited from the first full month without COVID-19 restrictions in England.

“This was offset by falls in health activity with fewer people visiting GPs and less testing and tracing.

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“However, later and slightly weaker data from a number of industries now mean we estimate the economy fell a little overall in July.”

Chancellor Rishi Sunak responded by pointing to recent data showing growth in payroll jobs numbers and forecasts that UK growth will outpace other G7 countries.

File photo dated 30/08/21 of people enjoying the Bank Holiday weather on Bournemouth beach.
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The bounce-back has been partly attributed to staycations this summer

The ONS figures showed a mixed picture for different parts of the economy in August.

Within the services sector – which makes up four-fifths of output – it was hotels and restaurants together with arts, entertainment and recreation that led the way though retailers saw a decline.

There was also a pick-up for crude oil and natural gas after a recent closure of oil field production sites for planned maintenance. But the construction sector shrank.

Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said: “August was a strong month for the UK economy, with the easing of restrictions and staycation boom causing a welcome growth in the service sector when compared with the previous month.

“Retail sales, however, were more muted but this could have been due to a higher proportion of disposable income being spent instead on going out over the summer.

“While the construction sector appears to have been affected by supply shortages, elsewhere in the economy there are signs that previous bottlenecks are able to self-correct to a certain extent.”

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said that for the third quarter from July-September, growth may have fallen short of the Bank of England’s forecast – suggesting this could dampen prospects for an interest rate hike.

Britain’s economy shrank by 9.7% last year as the coronavirus pandemic crushed economic activity – its biggest annual decline in 99 years.

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Bread producers Hovis and Kingsmill close in on historic merger

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Bread producers Hovis and Kingsmill close in on historic merger

The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill are closing in on a definitive agreement to merge two of Britain’s most famous grocery brands following months of talks.

Sky News has learnt Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, has proposed paying roughly £75m to acquire Hovis from its long-term private equity backers.

Banking sources said a deal could be formally agreed to combine the businesses as early as the end of next week, although they cautioned the complexity of the transaction meant the timing could yet slip.

Confirmation of a tie-up would come nearly three months after Sky News revealed ABF and Endless – Hovis’s owner since 2020 – were in discussions.

Industry sources have estimated that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of annual cost savings from a merger.

ABF has also been exploring options for the future of Allied Bakeries separate from its talks with Hovis in the event a deal could not be agreed or is prevented from completing by competition regulators.

If it does go ahead, the merger will unite two historic bread producers under common ownership, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

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Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning “strength of man”.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair breadmakers’ financial health in recent decades, however.

In accounts filed at Companies House earlier this month, Hovis said it had “achieved positive financial progress despite continued tough trading conditions”.

The company reported sales of £439.6m in the 52 weeks to 28 September last year, down from £477.6m in the 53 weeks to 30 September 2023.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell from £20.9m to £18.7m, which Hovis said was the result of the revenue decline and higher distribution costs.

“Overall bread share remained stable, despite significant price inflation and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, demonstrating the resilience of the Hovis brand and its iconic status as one of Britain’s most loved food brands,” the accounts said.

This week, the trade publication The Grocer reported that Britain’s big four supermarkets, including Asda and Sainsbury’s, had delisted a number of Hovis-branded products.

The publication quoted a Hovis spokeswoman as saying the company was “aware of some adjustments to Hovis product lines in certain stores”.

“We remain fully committed to working collaboratively with our retail partners to grow our mutual businesses.”

The overall UK bakery market is estimated to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

Critical to the prospects of a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis taking place will be the view of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) at a time when economic regulators are under intense pressure from the government to support growth.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group the largest share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain higher because of the breadth of its product range.

Responding to Sky News’ report in May of the talks, ABF said: “Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we remain committed to increasing long-term shareholder value.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF – which is also in the process of closing its Vivergo bioethanol plant in Hull after pleading for government support – described the losses at Allied, which also owns own-label bread manufacturer Speedibake, as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Prior to its ownership by Endless, Hovis was owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites, as well as its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF declined to comment, while Endless could not be reached for comment.

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

Retail sales grew in June as warm weather boosted spending and day trips, official figures show.

Spending on goods such as food, clothes and household items rose 0.9%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It’s a bounce back from the 2.8% dip in May, but last month’s figure was below economists’ forecast 1.2% uplift as consumers dealt with higher prices from increased inflation.

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Also weighing on spending was reduced consumer confidence amid talk of higher taxes, according to a closely watched indicator from market research firm GfK.

Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.

Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.

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What does ‘inflation is rising’ mean?

Where have people been shopping?

June’s retail sales rise came as people bought more in supermarkets, and retailers said drinks sales were up.

While hot and sunny weather boosted some brick-and-mortar shops, the heat led some to head online.

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Non-store retailers, which include mainly online shops, but also market stalls, had sold the most in more than three years.

Not since February 2022 had sales been so high as the Met Office said England had its warmest ever June, and the second warmest for the UK as a whole.

The June increases suggest that the May drop was a bump in the road. When looked at as a whole, the first six months of the year saw retail sales up 1.7%.

Filling up the car for day trips to take advantage of the sun played an important role in the retail sales growth.

When fuel is excluded, the rise was smaller, just 0.6%.

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Despite lower consumer sentiment and more expensive goods, consumers are benefitting from rising wages and are cutting back on savings.

The ONS lifestyle survey – backed up by hard data like the Bank of England’s money and credit figures – shows that households have rebuilt their rainy day savings and are cutting back on the amount of money they squirrel away each month.

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Former Poundland owner lines up advisers as restructuring looms

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Former Poundland owner lines up advisers as restructuring looms

The former owner of Poundland is lining up advisers to supervise its transition to new shareholders through a court-sanctioned process that will involve store closures and job cuts at the discount retailer.

Sky News has learnt that Pepco Group, which is listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, is drafting in FRP Advisory weeks after it struck a deal to sell Poundland to Gordon Brothers.

Industry sources said FRP had been asked by Pepco to act as an observer, with the High Court scheduled to sanction a restructuring plan in the last week of August.

Under the proposed deal, 68 Poundland shops would close in the short term, along with two distribution centres.

More shops are expected to be shut under Gordon Brothers over time, resulting in hundreds of job losses.

Pepco is said to be particularly focused on IT systems which Poundland uses in common with Pepco’s operations in Poland.

Barry Williams, managing director of Poundland, said at the time of the deal’s announcement: “It’s no secret that we have much work to do to get Poundland back on track.

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“While Poundland remains a strong brand, serving 20 million-plus shoppers each year, our performance for a significant period has fallen short of our high standards and action is needed to enable the business to return to growth.

“It’s sincerely regrettable that this plan includes the closure of stores and distribution centres, but it’s necessary if we’re to achieve our goal of securing the future of thousands of jobs and hundreds of stores.

Prior to the deal’s announcement, Poundland employed roughly 16,000 people across an estate of over 800 shops in the UK and Ireland.

Tax hikes announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in last autumn’s Budget have increased the financial pressure on high street retailers.

In recent months, chains including WH Smith, Lakeland and The Original Factory Shop have changed hands amid challenging circumstances.

In June, Sky News revealed that River Island, the family-owned clothing retailer, was also working with advisers on a rescue plan aimed at averting its collapse.

Pepco and Poundland declined to comment.

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