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As you’ve surely heard by now, the Las Vegas Raiders and Jon Gruden parted ways on Monday. It goes without saying that the emails uncovered as part of the NFL’s investigation into Daniel Snyder and the Washington Football Team were abhorrent and unbecoming of a leader. My colleagues have addressed Gruden’s firing, and what’s now left in the wake of his absence is a suddenly rudderless Raiders organization.

The franchise was rebuilt to Gruden’s specifications after he took over as coach and de-facto football czar in 2018, and while general manager Mike Mayock and the rest of the staff remain, there’s no doubt that things will change without him in charge. Special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia has been given the interim job, and team owner Mark Davis suggested Wednesday that the arrangement of power has moved from a split of 51% Gruden, 49% Mayock to 51% Mayock, 49% Bisaccia.

By the time we hit next offseason, the Raiders might be in a new arrangement altogether. As the only coach with a 10-year contract, the one sure thing for the organization seemed to be that Gruden would be in charge. Now, on the fly, everything is changing.

Let’s evaluate the lasting effects of Gruden’s second run with the Raiders in terms of player personnel and where Mayock and Bisaccia — or whomever takes over in 2022 — sit with the current roster. Gruden took over a 6-10 team that was one year removed from a 12-4 season and a trip to the postseason. The Raiders were 22-31 in Gruden’s second tenure, and I’m not sure they’re much closer to the postseason than they were before he was hired. Let’s see where the Raiders stand with 12 games to go this season.

Jump to a section:
The big trades | The draft record
Free-agency issues | The roster
What’s next? | Postmortem

Gruden’s big trades

Gruden’s most significant personnel moves came early in his run, as he tore apart the young core of former general manager Reggie McKenzie’s teams. With two trades, Gruden dealt away cornerstones on both sides of the football in edge rusher Khalil Mack and wide receiver Amari Cooper. In return, he netted four high draft picks, including three first-rounders. Those selections became running back Josh Jacobs, cornerback Damon Arnette, safety Johnathan Abram and wide receiver Bryan Edwards.

These moves set back the franchise significantly. Jacobs has struggled with injuries and doesn’t have a role in the passing game at a position in which two-down backs are readily available for the veterans minimum. Arnette was responsible for the coverage breakdown on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s big play at the end of the game in the crucial Week 16 loss to the Dolphins last season; he lost his starting job in camp and has been the subject of trade rumors. Abram missed all of his rookie season with an injury and was a mess in coverage in Year 2. He has been better this season, but his most notable moment has been getting stiff-armed by Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris. Edwards, the only one of the four not to be drafted in the first round, looks to be the most promising player among them.

Gruden repeatedly traded for veterans over the course of his tenure, and those moves almost universally failed. The most notable came when the team sent third- and fifth-round picks to the Steelers for receiver Antonio Brown, which failed in ignominious fashion before Brown ever suited up for the team.

I couldn’t fault the Raiders for that deal at the time, but Gruden’s other deals for wide receivers looked bad at first glance and got worse quickly. The Raiders sent a third-rounder to the Steelers for Martavis Bryant and then cut him at the end of camp. Defensive end Jihad Ward was shipped off for Ryan Switzer, who was then dealt away for a swap of late-round picks without having played for the team. The Raiders sent a fifth-rounder to the Bills for Zay Jones and a sixth-rounder to the Packers for Trevor Davis, who was cut after two and a half months. The Packers used that pick on Jon Runyan, who is now starting for Green Bay at guard.

Receiver wasn’t the only spot in which the Raiders traded picks for players with limited success. Gruden shipped a fifth-round pick to the Bills for quarterback AJ McCarron, who threw a total of three passes before leaving. The seventh-rounder Gruden sent the Jets for QB Christian Hackenberg was a conditional pick, thankfully. Last year, the Raiders swapped midround picks with the Dolphins to acquire linebacker Raekwon McMillan; he played a total of 169 defensive snaps before leaving the team. McMillan served as a special-teamer, but that’s the sort of player organizations should be able to find with the late-round picks Gruden was shipping away in failed swaps.

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Booger McFarland shares his thoughts on the reports Jon Gruden is out as the Las Vegas Raiders’ head coach.

Gruden’s track record of trading up and down in the draft was more mixed. He had success trading down in his first draft to acquire offensive tackle Kolton Miller, Gruden’s most successful first-round pick. He also moved up for wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, but trades up for defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, edge rusher Arden Key and offensive lineman Brandon Parker weren’t successful. It’s difficult to look at Gruden’s track record of trading as much more than a brutal failure.


Gruden’s draft record

Gruden oversaw four drafts, which means that we should be seeing his picks make up the core of the existing Vegas team and the teams we’ll see over the next couple of seasons. Let’s take a look at the picks he made over the first three rounds of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 drafts:

2018:

2019:

2020:

We’ve already discussed some of these selections. Ferrell, the highest-drafted player of the Gruden era at No. 4 overall, was viewed as a significant overdraft at the time and hasn’t looked like an impact player at any point of his career. The former Clemson pass-rusher lost his starting job this offseason and was a healthy scratch in Week 1. He has played 18% of the defensive snaps this season. The next player selected in that first round was linebacker Devin White, who has become one of the league’s best players at his position for the Bucs.

The only first-rounder we haven’t discussed is Ruggs, who has flashed significant potential while struggling to command a significant target share. The hope is naturally that he takes a step forward in his second season, in which he’s on pace to rack up 1,113 receiving yards (although his average of 20.5 yards per reception will be tough to sustain). He was the first wideout taken in a draft that included CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman and Chase Claypool; he wouldn’t be the first wideout off the board in a redraft today.

It doesn’t get much better after the first round. Miller has been a solid tackle, but Parker was bad as a rookie and hasn’t been trusted as more than a swing tackle since. Hall and Key are no longer on the roster. Neither is Bowden, who was moved to a “Joker” role as a hybrid running back/wide receiver after being drafted. He was traded before ever playing with the Raiders, who sent him with a sixth-round pick to Miami for a fourth-round selection. Muse was also released without ever playing a snap for the Raiders. Two of the their three third-rounders from 2020 are no longer on their roster; of the other 39 players drafted, just one has been cut or traded (Jabari Zuniga of the Jets).

In all, while acknowledging that there’s plenty of time left on the clock for these young players, the only players the Raiders would take again at their same spots would probably be Miller, Mullen and Edwards. That’s a disaster for a team that had six first-round picks over this span.

It’s too early to say anything about the 2021 class, but as was the case with Ferrell and Jacobs, the Raiders used a first-round pick on offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood when most public resources pegged him as a midround selection. Leatherwood struggled enough at right tackle for the Raiders to move him to guard during the Week 5 loss to the Bears. Teams sometimes take prospects much higher than public perception and prove to be right, as the Cowboys did with center Travis Frederick in 2013. It’s too early to make any proclamations about Leatherwood, but if he doesn’t pan out, the Raiders will have repeatedly gone against the grain and been wrong about it every time.

The best pick Gruden made during his time in charge was likely someone taken outside the top 100: edge rusher Maxx Crosby, a 2019 fourth-round pick. The Eastern Michigan product racked up 10 sacks as a rookie, and while he has only two sacks in five games to start 2021, he has been a consistent disruptor and has 13 quarterback hits this season. Renfrow, taken a round later, has proven to be a valuable slot receiver. Those are nice finds, but the Raiders also used a fifth-round pick on a punter in Johnny Townsend, who lasted a season before being released.

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1:30

Keyshawn Johnson looks back at his two years playing under Jon Gruden.

Naturally, it’s difficult to parse the responsibility for these selections between Gruden and Mayock, whose primary work over the prior decade had been as a draft analyst for NFL Network before joining the Raiders in 2019. Given how poorly the top picks have performed and how long Gruden had left on his contract, it’s entirely possible that Mayock would have been the fall guy for a disappointing 2021 season. Now, that’s no longer the case.

The easy answer is to say that they both deserve some of the blame, because it’s impossible to know why the selections are failing. Are the Raiders struggling to bring through young talent because they’re picking the wrong players? Or are they picking useful players and struggling to develop them into viable starters? There’s one reason to think that the latter might be the bigger problem with Vegas …


Gruden in free agency

… That reason? That just about every significant free agent who came to play for the Raiders looked much worse in silver and black than they had in their prior stop. Free agency isn’t the best way to build a roster, but it’s hard to think of a team that has gotten less out of its significant signings than the Raiders over the past several seasons. Here’s every free agent, with an average annual salary of $5 million or more, the Raiders added over the Gruden era, and what happened next:

2018:

  • WR Jordy Nelson (two years, $14.2 million): cut after one season

  • LB Tahir Whitehead (three years, $19 million): lost starting role in Year 2, cut

  • CB Rashaan Melvin (one year, $5.5 million): started seven games

2019:

  • OT Trent Brown (four years, $66 million): started 16 games over two seasons, salary dumped to NE

  • WR Tyrell Williams (four years, $44.3 million): started one game over two seasons, cut

  • S LaMarcus Joyner (Four years, $42 million): moved to CB, benched in Year 2, cut

2020:

  • LB Cory Littleton (three years, $35.3 million): suffered drastic decline in play

  • LB Nick Kwiatkoski (three years, $21 million): lost starting job after one season

  • EDGE Carl Nassib (three years, $25.3 million): four sacks in 19 games

  • QB Marcus Mariota (two years, $17.6 million): 28 pass attempts with LAR

  • DT Maliek Collins (one year, $6 million): one QB hit in 504 snaps

2021:

  • EDGE Yannick Ngakoue (Two years, $26 million): two sacks in five games

  • RB Kenyan Drake (Two years, $11 million): playing almost exclusively as receiving back, averaging 2.4 yards per carry

That’s a brutal list, and it might even undersell how dramatically these players dropped off. Whitehead, Nelson and Littleton went from being excellent in their prior spots to wildly disappointing with the Raiders. Williams might have been unlucky with injuries — and Mariota hasn’t been needed very often behind Derek Carr — but the franchise has nobody but itself to blame with someone such as Joyner. The 2014 second-rounder had bounced around the Rams’ defense before settling at free safety, where he emerged as a star. The Raiders promptly signed him and moved him back to slot corner, where he struggled wildly for two season before being released.

On the other hand, the best move the team made during the Gruden era was a much less notable free-agent signing. After Darren Waller dealt with substance abuse and moved to tight end, the Raiders signed him off Baltimore’s practice squad in 2018. He emerged as one of the most exciting tight ends in all of football in 2019. They quickly moved to sign him to a four-year, $29.8 million deal that October. At that price tag, he is one of the league’s most valuable non-quarterbacks on a veteran deal.

Owing to the missing draft picks and the disappointing top-100 selections, the Raiders have needed to be active in signing veterans to short-term, low-cost deals in free agency. The vast majority of those contracts are one-year pacts. The Raiders might be happy with players such as Casey Hayward Jr., Solomon Thomas and K.J. Wright, and their contracts are reasonable, but they’re all free agents after the season.


What’s left on the roster

The Raiders have one of the league’s least impressive cores. A coach or a general manager looking to build the organization would be looking at Miller and Crosby as the only under-25 players on whom they can count as above-average starters. A second tier might include players who have shown some promise but haven’t been consistently impactful, such as Edwards, Ruggs and Mullen, plus anyone who emerges from the 2021 class, with fifth-round corner Nate Hobbs off to a promising start. Waller just turned 29, and Carr is 30. Both will be looking for new deals after the season. So will Jacobs and Renfrow, who are useful, albeit at positions in which it’s often easy to find useful players. The Raiders simply aren’t in the same universe in terms of core talent as the other teams in the AFC West.

They have been able to approach league-average play by staying efficient and effective on offense. Gruden’s best asset as a coach was getting the most out of his offensive talent, especially in the passing game. Carr’s best seasons came in 2019 and 2020. Waller went from being a practice-squad player to a superstar. Every team passed on Renfrow multiple times. Receiver Nelson Agholor was essentially a meme before producing a career season with the Raiders in 2020.

These guys aren’t going to suddenly turn into afterthoughts without Gruden around, and the defense has been much better in 2021 than it was across the first three years of his regime, but the final game of his tenure was an example of how this team would look if the offense isn’t up to its prior level of play. In a 20-9 defeat to the Bears, the Raiders were buried with subpar field position, didn’t have a single play produce 30 yards or more and scored nine points on 10 possessions. Vegas’ 3-0 start marked the third year in a row in which it has enjoyed a three-game winning streak at some point during the season, but after the past two-plus weeks, it feels like another lifetime.


What’s next for the Raiders

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Raiders a 31.7% chance to make the playoffs. Making it to the postseason would probably encourage Davis to stick with the combination of Mayock and Bisaccia into 2022. If they fall short, they would presumably look to hire another coach, although Mayock’s future in that scenario would be unclear. Former head coaches such as Gus Bradley, Tom Cable and Rod Marinelli are also on staff, so it’s possible the Raiders could decide to promote one of their other assistants into the head role, as the Browns did when they named Freddie Kitchens head coach ahead of interim coach Gregg Williams before the 2019 season.

I’m not sure this will be a particularly appealing job. Vegas will be an exciting destination for free agents, but the talent gap between the Raiders and the rest of the division is apparent. Davis has been willing to spend on talent, and he’ll be saving money by not paying the remaining $60 million or so left on Gruden’s deal.

At the same time, consider what happened before Gruden arrived. Former general manager McKenzie took over a team that was in horrific salary-cap shape and missing draft picks after years of disastrous decisions by Al Davis and months of poor choices from former coach Hue Jackson. McKenzie’s Raiders ate nearly $77 million in dead money over 2012 and 2013 and began to work their way back. After drafting Mack and Cooper, they jumped from 3-13 in 2014 to 7-9 in 2015 and 12-4 in 2016. Their record was inflated by an unsustainable performance in one-score games, but for a team that hadn’t been to the playoffs or posted a winning record since 2002, 12-4 is 12-4.

A year later, Davis got distracted by shiny things and fired coach Jack Del Rio after a disappointing season to give Gruden full control of football operations (McKenzie was let go in December 2018). That example is going to be in the back of anyone’s mind if they get approached by the organization. The next guy probably isn’t getting a 10-year deal.


What we learned

Gruden’s second act with the Raiders was an unqualified failure. Focusing solely on his work over the past few years, it was a failure in exactly the ways we would have expected based on his time in Tampa Bay. He did a solid job of running the offense and got just about everything else wrong. Virtually every one of his significant personnel decisions turned out to be a mistake. He dismantled the organization and turned the core he inherited into pennies on the dollar.

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Stephen A. Smith believes Jon Gruden’s career is finished after reports of offensive emails he wrote over a 10-year period.

Organizations should learn from the tenures of Gruden and Jacksonville’s Urban Meyer, the other coach who was in the spotlight before Gruden resigned. Both would qualify as offensive minds with success in their past. They were each charismatic on television and capable of convincing ownership that they were single-handedly capable of turning around their fallen franchises. They were each given control of football operations despite the fact that Meyer has never been involved with pro personnel and Gruden’s track record as football czar in Tampa, Florida, was spotty at best.

If you’re hiring a coach, giving him complete control of football operations and resting the entire organization on his shoulders, you better make sure he’s up to the task. Even before the revelations of the past few days, it was clear that Gruden was not.

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Branch Bros. commit to Georgia after USC exit

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Branch Bros. commit to Georgia after USC exit

Former USC wide receiver Zachariah Branch and safety Zion Branch have committed to Georgia, the brothers told ESPN on Sunday.

The brothers are former top-100 recruits who loom as significant additions for the Bulldogs in 2025. They both have two seasons of eligibility remaining.

Zachariah Branch is the No. 9 overall player and No. 4 wide receiver in ESPN’s transfer portal rankings. He earned first-team All-American honors in 2023 while emerging as one of the most electric players in college football.

“I chose Georgia because I felt like the culture was something special,” Zachariah Branch told ESPN. “They have a great coaching staff, the brotherhood within the program, their will to win, being prepared for the next level and being as successful as possible on and off the field was important to me.”

Zachariah Branch can boost a Georgia receiving room that was beset this season by off-field issues and inconsistent play. Georgia led the country with 36 wide receiver drops, per ESPN Research.

“I see their potential as a contender for the national championship and to defend their SEC title in 2025,” Zachariah Branch said.

He accounted for 1,863 all-purpose yards during his two seasons at USC, including two kicks returned for touchdowns in 2023. As a receiver he caught 78 passes for 823 yards and three touchdowns. He tied for the team lead in receptions this season with 47. He rushed for 87 yards and another touchdown during his two seasons in coach Lincoln Riley’s offense.

Zion Branch played in all 12 games for USC as a redshirt sophomore safety this season, recording 19 tackles, 3 pass breakups and 1 sack in a reserve role. He’s the older of the two brothers and dealt with season-ending injuries in both 2022 and 2023.

“I chose the University of Georgia because of its great coaching staff, their pedigree, and the history of the program,” Zion Branch told ESPN. “Georgia has consistently been one of the best programs in college football, and the culture of excellence they’ve built is something I want to be a part of. The coaches are not just about winning games; they’re about building character, fostering growth and pushing players to be their absolute best both on and off the field.”

The brothers joined the Trojans after starring at Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas. Zachariah was the No. 7 overall recruit in the ESPN 300 for 2023, and Zion was No. 76 in 2022.

The Georgia receiving room was full of steady players but with no true standout; nobody finished in the SEC’s top 10 for receiving yards. Senior Arian Smith, who accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl but still has a season of eligibility left, led the Bulldogs with 817 yards. Receiver/punt returner Anthony Evans III entered the transfer portal, and Dominic Lovett, who is out of eligibility, led the team with 59 catches.

Zachariah Branch offers rare dynamism and downfield speed that will make him a candidate to be Georgia’s top target in 2025. He scored just one touchdown for USC in 2024 after scoring five as a true freshman — two in the return game, two receiving and one rushing.

The brothers see themselves as contributors toward the program’s bigger goals.

“This team is poised to do something truly special — competing for championships and setting a standard of excellence that few can match,” Zion Branch said. “With the talent that’s already there and the elite-level recruits coming in, the future is incredibly bright. I have no doubt Georgia will not only win a lot of games but also continue to lead the nation in innovation and performance on the field.”

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FCS title game preview: Can North Dakota State knock off undefeated Montana State?

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FCS title game preview: Can North Dakota State knock off undefeated Montana State?

On Dec. 15, 1984, Montana State completed a worst-to-first run for the ages. One season after going 1-10, Dave Arnold’s Bobcats began the season 2-2 but caught fire offensively, beat a top-10 Boise State team in October and even upset Fresno State 35-31 late in the season. They charged into the 12-team playoff with the No. 3 seed, beat Arkansas State and Rhode Island by a combined 29 points, then unleashed hell on Louisiana Tech in the title game. Quarterback Kelly Bradley threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, Tech didn’t score until the final minute of the game, and MSU cruised 19-6.

Montana State has been chasing that title feeling for 40 years. And Monday night in Frisco, Texas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN), the Bobcats have their best chance yet of earning a second ring. All that’s left is to defeat FCS’ ultimate final boss.

After ceding control of FCS to rival South Dakota State for a couple of years, North Dakota State defeated the Jackrabbits twice in 2024; the Bison are back in the final for the 11th time in 14 years. They knocked Montana State out of the playoffs in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023, and after winning eight of nine titles between 2011 and 2019, they’re looking for their second title of the 2020s.

Will we see another North Dakota State coronation or will Montana State conjure the spirit of 1984?

How they got here

Record: 15-0

SP+ rankings: first overall, first on offense, second on defense

Key regular-season results: def. New Mexico 35-31, def. Idaho 38-7, def. UC Davis 30-28, def. Montana 34-11

Playoff run: def. UT Martin 49-17, def. No. 8 Idaho 52-19, def. No. 4 South Dakota 31-17

Defeating FCS royalty comes with its own set of challenges, but there should be no doubting who the best team in FCS has been through 15 games. Montana State has been devastating from start to finish. Despite handing New Mexico a pair of defensive touchdowns, the Bobcats still overcame the FBS Lobos, dominating statistically (total yards: 567-324) and scoring 21 fourth-quarter points to win their season opener.

They’ve barely wobbled since. Their only tight game to date against an FCS opponent was only sort of tight: On Nov. 16, they went on a 30-0 run to take a commanding lead at eventual quarterfinalist UC Davis before the Aggies scored three late touchdowns (thanks in part to an onside kick recovery) to make it close. No one has had the ball with a chance to take a late lead on MSU since the New Mexico game. South Dakota played an awesome game against the Bobcats in the semifinals and still couldn’t get closer than 14 points down the stretch.

Record: 13-2

SP+ rankings: third overall, second on offense, fifth on defense

Key regular-season results: lost to Colorado 31-26, def. North Dakota 41-17, def. South Dakota State 13-9, def. Missouri State 59-21, lost to South Dakota 29-28

Playoff run: def. Abilene Christian 51-31, def. No. 7 Mercer 31-7, def. No. 3 South Dakota State 28-21

NDSU took on a tougher schedule and came within six points of an unbeaten record. The Bison led Colorado at halftime but couldn’t quite overcome a pair of Travis Hunter touchdowns in the second half, falling 4 yards short on a game-ending Hail Mary.

They had to survive an early 38-35 thriller against East Tennessee State, recovering an onside kick and scoring twice in the last two minutes, but once the defense found its rhythm, NDSU started looking like NDSU again. Over their past 11 games, only three have been close: the two wins over South Dakota State and the tight loss at South Dakota.


MSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Tommy Mellott (6-foot-0, 208 lbs., Sr.), RB Scottre Humphrey (5-11, 210, So.), TE Rohan Jones (6-3, 235, Jr.), RG Marcus Wehr (6-4, 300, Sr.), LT Conner Moore (6-5, 310, So.), PR Taco Dowler (5-9, 175, So.)

In his first collegiate game in 2021, he ripped off a 44-yard run. In his fourth, he scored from 74 yards. In his first three playoff games, he threw for 449 yards and rushed for 411 while leading MSU to the national title game.

For most of four years now, Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott has been a unicorn, combining ultra-efficient passing with downright reckless rushing, throwing his 208-pound frame around with abandon and doing whatever it takes to get the job done. He got injured early in the 2021 title game against NDSU, and he has been dinged up at some point basically every year since. But if he’s in the game, he’s probably doing something ridiculous. He has five career 150-yard rushing games (including a 273-yard, three-touchdown performance against Weber State in 2022), and he has five career 225-yard passing games (including a 300-yard, four-touchdown performance against UT Martin in the second round of this year’s playoffs).

In 2024, Mellott and his supporting cast have produced the most brilliant offense in FCS. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for 2,494 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, with Mellott chipping in 915 yards and 14 more scores in less than eight carries per game. Meanwhile, Mellott has completed 69% of his passes at 13.5 yards per completion with a downright unfair 29-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. He doesn’t have a go-to receiver — he has three: Wideouts Taco Dowler (also an ace punt returner) and Ty McCullouch and tight end Rohan Jones have combined for 100 catches, 1,494 yards and 23 scores.

A case could be made that elite line play was the last piece of the puzzle in head coach Brent Vigen’s four-year building project — it’s where the Bobcats most noticeably were lacking in their first few meetings against NDSU and SDSU. But despite starting three sophomores up front, the Bobcats boast an abundance of both talent and raw size up front, averaging 6-4, 305 pounds across the line with a pair of first-team all-Big Sky performers. MSU averages 41.3 points per game and hasn’t been held under 31 all season. It was jarring when South Dakota forced four straight punts in the second half of the semifinals, but it didn’t help all that much since MSU had scored on five of its first six drives.

NDSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: DT Eli Mostaert (6-3, 289, Sr.), LB Logan Kopp (6-1, 220, Jr.)

NDSU’s defense took a little while to shift into gear in 2024. Including the loss to Colorado and the near-upset against ETSU, the Bison allowed at least 24 points and at least 367 yards in three of their first four games. But in the 11 games since, they’ve allowed only 15.7 points and 299.1 yards per game despite playing over half their games in that span against playoff teams.

Veteran linemen Eli Mostaert, Loshiaka Roques and Kody Huisman have combined for 24 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks and 12 QB hurries up front (Huisman also has blocked two kicks), and linebacker Logan Kopp is the prototypical tackling machine. But as has been customary over the last 15 years or so, the Bison’s biggest strength is depth. Nine NDSU defenders have recorded at least four tackles for loss, nine have at least two sacks, 12 have defended (intercepted or broken up) at least three passes, 13 have forced a fumble and 14 have recovered one. MSU has the best offense they’ve faced, but in two games against SDSU (No. 3 in offensive SP+) the Bison allowed an average of just 333 yards and 19 points. They aren’t likely to give up too many easy yards, even to Mellott & Co.


A mistake-free Bison attack

NDSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Cam Miller (6-1, 212, Sr.), WR Bryce Lance (6-3, 204, Jr.), RT Mason Miller (6-7, 305, Sr.), LT Grey Zabel (6-6, 305, Sr.)

The bar is high in Fargo, and compared to the absurd talent that has rolled through town over the past 15 years, this NDSU offense is not the most explosive this FCS dynasty has produced. Backs CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu have combined for 1,825 yards and 21 touchdowns, but they average just 5.1 yards per carry — good but not elite. Cam Miller has thrown for 3,052 yards and 31 TDs, but his 12.8 yards per completion is less than you’d expect.

The Bison can still ground teams down with mistake-free efficiency, however. They convert 54% of their third downs and 68% of their fourth downs, and you just can’t take the ball away from them: They’ve committed an FCS-low six turnovers in 15 games. (Granted, there’s some luck involved in that — they’ve lost only one of 10 fumbles. But 10 fumbles in 15 games is minimal too.) The line is still huge, averaging 6-5 and 304 pounds, the backs are still hard to bring down (Brown and Kpeenu are 214 and 209 pounds, respectively), and if your safeties bite on a run fake, they can still go deep with breakout star wideout Bryce Lance (964 yards, 16 TDs), whose unreal, one-handed grab sent NDSU to the title game.

While Miller’s upside probably doesn’t match that of Carson Wentz or Trey Lance (Bryce’s older brother), there’s nothing you can throw at him that he hasn’t seen before: The reigning Missouri Valley offensive player of the year will play in his 67th career game Monday night.

If you aren’t careful, the Bison will score on you with special teams too. For as good as MSU’s Taco Dowler is in returns, NDSU can get you with either a punt return (Jackson Williams: 10.8 yards per return and one TD) or a kick return (Williams and TK Marshall: 29.9 yards per return and two scores).

MSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: Edge Brody Grebe (6-3, 250, Sr.), LB McCade O’Reilly (6-0, 220, Sr.), SS Rylan Ortt (6-1, 210, Sr.)

When MSU got mauled by NDSU in the 2021 title game, the Bobcats’ defense had only two players on the depth chart listed at more than 270 pounds. The Bison did what they do against all overmatched foes and road-graded MSU for 380 rushing yards.

MSU still doesn’t exactly have Georgia’s mammoth defensive front, but the 2024 Bobcats are bigger than they were in 2021. Starting tackles Paul Brott and Alec Eckert are listed at 290 and 280 pounds, respectively, and Brody Grebe is a sturdy 250 at end. New Mexico averaged 262.8 rushing yards per game against FBS opponents but managed only 152 against MSU, and only Eastern Washington topped 152 on the Bobcats.

To move the ball on them, teams typically have to do it through the air. UC Davis’ Miles Hastings, Idaho’s Jack Layne and South Dakota’s Aidan Bouman combined to go 62-for-92 for 795 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions against the Bobcats, and while a lot of that yardage came when these opponents were down double digits, it’s still solid work. Of course, it also came with a cost: MSU sacked those three quarterbacks 10 times. Led by ends Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV (combined: 16.5 sacks) and linebackers McCade O’Reilly and Neil Daily (combined: 15 TFLs), the Bobcats have recorded 36 sacks among 85 TFLs this season. You might be able to hit them for a big play here and there, but only if you get them before they get you.


Projecting the title game

MSU’s Brent Vigen and NDSU’s Tim Polasek both earned their figurative coaching degrees at the University of Craig Bohl — Vigen coached for Bohl at NDSU from 2003-13 and at Wyoming from 2014-20 (mostly as offensive coordinator), while Polasek joined Bohl’s NDSU staff in 2006, stayed in Fargo until 2016 and rejoined Bohl at Wyoming after a stint as Iowa’s offensive line coach. The paths of these two coaches have crossed constantly. So, too, have the paths of these teams, and every time they’ve met in the playoffs, NDSU has prevailed.

Vigen is 47-9 in four seasons at Montana State: 1-2 against FBS teams, 2-2 against rival Montana, 1-4 against NDSU and SDSU and 43-1 against everyone else. He and his Bobcats have been building toward this exact run for a while, and it feels like this is their time to break through. It wouldn’t be a surprise, however, if North Dakota State wrecked the Bobcats’ plans — it’s what dynasties do, after all.

Three years ago, MSU wasn’t quite ready. Mellott got hurt, the Bobcats had no chance of stopping the NDSU run game, and Miller and the Bison rolled. It might be a different story this time around.

ESPN Bet projection: MSU 30.0, NDSU 26.5 (MSU -3.5, over/under 56.5) | SP+ projection: MSU 30.2, NDSU 26.7

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QB recruit back to Cal after portal flip from Ducks

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QB recruit back to Cal after portal flip from Ducks

Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who first committed to Cal in July before his Dec. 4 flip to Oregon, has signed with Golden Bears, he told ESPN on Sunday, after entering the NCAA transfer portal over the weekend.

Sagapolutele becomes the top-ranked member of the Bears’ 2025 recruiting class. The No. 1 prospect from Hawai’i and ESPN’s No. 18 pocket passer will be eligible to play immediately next fall. His decision marks the latest twist in a dramatic cycle for the talented 2025 high school quarterback class, as well as a significant recruiting win for Cal coach Justin Wilcox.

Sagapolutele’s move comes just 32 days after he spurned the Bears and signed with the Ducks’ top-ranked class during the early signing period. He enrolled at Oregon last month and joined the program for its Rose Bowl preparations, even standing on the sideline during the Ducks’ loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal on Jan. 1.

Sagapolutele, who placed a heavy emphasis on early opportunity and development throughout his recruitment, told ESPN that the bowl season experience with Oregon gave him a view of the Ducks’ future outlook at quarterback. With 2024 starter Dillon Gabriel out of eligibility, the Ducks are expected to lean on Dante Moore and Austin Novosad next fall. Behind them, 2025 quarterback signee Akili Smith Jr. (No. 87 in the ESPN 300) is also set to arrive on campus this month as an early enrollee after participating in practices during bowl season.

As Sagapolutele’s confidence over his future at Oregon wavered, he found a pathway back to Cal. Given his December enrollment, he was permitted to use the transfer portal in the five-day window granted to Ducks players following the Rose Bowl defeat, formally entering the transfer portal Saturday.

“I just felt that there was another school in particular that was right for me,” Sagapolutele told ESPN. “I’m excited to be a priority over there and to get to work. I’m ready to see what God has in store for me at Cal.”

Sagapolutele capped his career at Campbell (Hawai’i) High School with 3,404 yards, 46 touchdowns and just three interceptions this season, surpassing Gabriel as the state’s all-time passing leader with 10,653 yards. With his return to the Bears, Sagapolutele can expect a much clearer path to contend for early snaps under center.

After former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza‘s offseason transfer to Indiana and the graduation of veteran Chandler Rogers, the Bears are thin at the quarterback position heading into 2025. While Cal is expected to remain active in the transfer passer market this cycle, Sagapolutele will have a chance to compete immediately in a position room that currently holds just 13 games of college experience between returners CJ Harris and EJ Caminong.

Wilcox and the Bears were among the earliest Power 4 programs to recruit Sagapolutele, a late riser in the 2025 class whose stock soared after an impressive performance at the 2024 Elite 11 Finals in June. That early investment paid off over the summer when Sagapolutele committed to Cal over finalists Oregon State, Boise State and Utah State.

The Bears, however, struggled to hold off late recruiting pushes from Georgia and Oregon in the fall after both schools offered Sagapolutele following the start of his senior season.

Sagapolutele left his October visit with the Ducks blown away by the offense under coordinator Will Stein and encouraged by the time he spent with Gabriel, a fellow Hawaiian who coached Sagapolutele during the Elite 11 event last year. Sagapolutele ultimately canceled a pair of scheduled November visits to Georgia, but he gave the Bulldogs strong consideration before pulling his pledge from Cal and joining the Ducks’ latest stockpile of high school talent.

Sagapolutele said the connection that he developed with Cal’s coaching staff never faded. As he experienced a change of heart with the Ducks, it was Sagapolutele’s relationships with Wilcox, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch and quarterbacks coach Sterlin Gilbert that pulled him back to Cal, stamping a critical victory for a Bears recruiting class that ranked 65th by ESPN.

“It’s the right environment for me,” Sagapolutele said. “Coach Gilbert is going to develop me and it’s a place where I’m going to be able to go in and compete early on.”

Sagapolutele’s move comes in a cycle that saw nine of ESPN’s top 16 quarterback prospects flip their pledges.

While Sagapolutele’s move through the transfer portal before ever playing a college game represents a feature unique to this modern age of college football, it is not entirely unprecedented. He follows 2024 five-star passer Julian Sayin, who transferred from Alabama to Ohio State last year following Nick Saban’s retirement, as the second high-profile quarterback prospect in as many cycles to enroll with a school in December before entering the transfer portal just weeks later.

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