Barnwell: How Jon Gruden’s roster-building left the Raiders in terrible shape, and what’s next
As you’ve surely heard by now, the Las Vegas Raiders and Jon Gruden parted ways on Monday. It goes without saying that the emails uncovered as part of the NFL’s investigation into Daniel Snyder and the Washington Football Team were abhorrent and unbecoming of a leader. My colleagues have addressed Gruden’s firing, and what’s now left in the wake of his absence is a suddenly rudderless Raiders organization.
The franchise was rebuilt to Gruden’s specifications after he took over as coach and de-facto football czar in 2018, and while general manager Mike Mayock and the rest of the staff remain, there’s no doubt that things will change without him in charge. Special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia has been given the interim job, and team owner Mark Davis suggested Wednesday that the arrangement of power has moved from a split of 51% Gruden, 49% Mayock to 51% Mayock, 49% Bisaccia.
By the time we hit next offseason, the Raiders might be in a new arrangement altogether. As the only coach with a 10-year contract, the one sure thing for the organization seemed to be that Gruden would be in charge. Now, on the fly, everything is changing.
Let’s evaluate the lasting effects of Gruden’s second run with the Raiders in terms of player personnel and where Mayock and Bisaccia — or whomever takes over in 2022 — sit with the current roster. Gruden took over a 6-10 team that was one year removed from a 12-4 season and a trip to the postseason. The Raiders were 22-31 in Gruden’s second tenure, and I’m not sure they’re much closer to the postseason than they were before he was hired. Let’s see where the Raiders stand with 12 games to go this season.
Jump to a section:
The big trades | The draft record
Free-agency issues | The roster
What’s next? | Postmortem
Gruden’s big trades
Gruden’s most significant personnel moves came early in his run, as he tore apart the young core of former general manager Reggie McKenzie’s teams. With two trades, Gruden dealt away cornerstones on both sides of the football in edge rusher Khalil Mack and wide receiver Amari Cooper. In return, he netted four high draft picks, including three first-rounders. Those selections became running back Josh Jacobs, cornerback Damon Arnette, safety Johnathan Abram and wide receiver Bryan Edwards.
These moves set back the franchise significantly. Jacobs has struggled with injuries and doesn’t have a role in the passing game at a position in which two-down backs are readily available for the veterans minimum. Arnette was responsible for the coverage breakdown on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s big play at the end of the game in the crucial Week 16 loss to the Dolphins last season; he lost his starting job in camp and has been the subject of trade rumors. Abram missed all of his rookie season with an injury and was a mess in coverage in Year 2. He has been better this season, but his most notable moment has been getting stiff-armed by Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris. Edwards, the only one of the four not to be drafted in the first round, looks to be the most promising player among them.
Gruden repeatedly traded for veterans over the course of his tenure, and those moves almost universally failed. The most notable came when the team sent third- and fifth-round picks to the Steelers for receiver Antonio Brown, which failed in ignominious fashion before Brown ever suited up for the team.
I couldn’t fault the Raiders for that deal at the time, but Gruden’s other deals for wide receivers looked bad at first glance and got worse quickly. The Raiders sent a third-rounder to the Steelers for Martavis Bryant and then cut him at the end of camp. Defensive end Jihad Ward was shipped off for Ryan Switzer, who was then dealt away for a swap of late-round picks without having played for the team. The Raiders sent a fifth-rounder to the Bills for Zay Jones and a sixth-rounder to the Packers for Trevor Davis, who was cut after two and a half months. The Packers used that pick on Jon Runyan, who is now starting for Green Bay at guard.
Receiver wasn’t the only spot in which the Raiders traded picks for players with limited success. Gruden shipped a fifth-round pick to the Bills for quarterback AJ McCarron, who threw a total of three passes before leaving. The seventh-rounder Gruden sent the Jets for QB Christian Hackenberg was a conditional pick, thankfully. Last year, the Raiders swapped midround picks with the Dolphins to acquire linebacker Raekwon McMillan; he played a total of 169 defensive snaps before leaving the team. McMillan served as a special-teamer, but that’s the sort of player organizations should be able to find with the late-round picks Gruden was shipping away in failed swaps.
0:44
Booger McFarland shares his thoughts on the reports Jon Gruden is out as the Las Vegas Raiders’ head coach.
Gruden’s track record of trading up and down in the draft was more mixed. He had success trading down in his first draft to acquire offensive tackle Kolton Miller, Gruden’s most successful first-round pick. He also moved up for wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, but trades up for defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, edge rusher Arden Key and offensive lineman Brandon Parker weren’t successful. It’s difficult to look at Gruden’s track record of trading as much more than a brutal failure.
Gruden’s draft record
Gruden oversaw four drafts, which means that we should be seeing his picks make up the core of the existing Vegas team and the teams we’ll see over the next couple of seasons. Let’s take a look at the picks he made over the first three rounds of the 2018, 2019, and 2020 drafts:
2018:
2019:
2020:
We’ve already discussed some of these selections. Ferrell, the highest-drafted player of the Gruden era at No. 4 overall, was viewed as a significant overdraft at the time and hasn’t looked like an impact player at any point of his career. The former Clemson pass-rusher lost his starting job this offseason and was a healthy scratch in Week 1. He has played 18% of the defensive snaps this season. The next player selected in that first round was linebacker Devin White, who has become one of the league’s best players at his position for the Bucs.
The only first-rounder we haven’t discussed is Ruggs, who has flashed significant potential while struggling to command a significant target share. The hope is naturally that he takes a step forward in his second season, in which he’s on pace to rack up 1,113 receiving yards (although his average of 20.5 yards per reception will be tough to sustain). He was the first wideout taken in a draft that included CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman and Chase Claypool; he wouldn’t be the first wideout off the board in a redraft today.
It doesn’t get much better after the first round. Miller has been a solid tackle, but Parker was bad as a rookie and hasn’t been trusted as more than a swing tackle since. Hall and Key are no longer on the roster. Neither is Bowden, who was moved to a “Joker” role as a hybrid running back/wide receiver after being drafted. He was traded before ever playing with the Raiders, who sent him with a sixth-round pick to Miami for a fourth-round selection. Muse was also released without ever playing a snap for the Raiders. Two of the their three third-rounders from 2020 are no longer on their roster; of the other 39 players drafted, just one has been cut or traded (Jabari Zuniga of the Jets).
In all, while acknowledging that there’s plenty of time left on the clock for these young players, the only players the Raiders would take again at their same spots would probably be Miller, Mullen and Edwards. That’s a disaster for a team that had six first-round picks over this span.
It’s too early to say anything about the 2021 class, but as was the case with Ferrell and Jacobs, the Raiders used a first-round pick on offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood when most public resources pegged him as a midround selection. Leatherwood struggled enough at right tackle for the Raiders to move him to guard during the Week 5 loss to the Bears. Teams sometimes take prospects much higher than public perception and prove to be right, as the Cowboys did with center Travis Frederick in 2013. It’s too early to make any proclamations about Leatherwood, but if he doesn’t pan out, the Raiders will have repeatedly gone against the grain and been wrong about it every time.
The best pick Gruden made during his time in charge was likely someone taken outside the top 100: edge rusher Maxx Crosby, a 2019 fourth-round pick. The Eastern Michigan product racked up 10 sacks as a rookie, and while he has only two sacks in five games to start 2021, he has been a consistent disruptor and has 13 quarterback hits this season. Renfrow, taken a round later, has proven to be a valuable slot receiver. Those are nice finds, but the Raiders also used a fifth-round pick on a punter in Johnny Townsend, who lasted a season before being released.
1:30
Keyshawn Johnson looks back at his two years playing under Jon Gruden.
Naturally, it’s difficult to parse the responsibility for these selections between Gruden and Mayock, whose primary work over the prior decade had been as a draft analyst for NFL Network before joining the Raiders in 2019. Given how poorly the top picks have performed and how long Gruden had left on his contract, it’s entirely possible that Mayock would have been the fall guy for a disappointing 2021 season. Now, that’s no longer the case.
The easy answer is to say that they both deserve some of the blame, because it’s impossible to know why the selections are failing. Are the Raiders struggling to bring through young talent because they’re picking the wrong players? Or are they picking useful players and struggling to develop them into viable starters? There’s one reason to think that the latter might be the bigger problem with Vegas …
Gruden in free agency
… That reason? That just about every significant free agent who came to play for the Raiders looked much worse in silver and black than they had in their prior stop. Free agency isn’t the best way to build a roster, but it’s hard to think of a team that has gotten less out of its significant signings than the Raiders over the past several seasons. Here’s every free agent, with an average annual salary of $5 million or more, the Raiders added over the Gruden era, and what happened next:
2018:
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WR Jordy Nelson (two years, $14.2 million): cut after one season
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LB Tahir Whitehead (three years, $19 million): lost starting role in Year 2, cut
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CB Rashaan Melvin (one year, $5.5 million): started seven games
2019:
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OT Trent Brown (four years, $66 million): started 16 games over two seasons, salary dumped to NE
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WR Tyrell Williams (four years, $44.3 million): started one game over two seasons, cut
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S LaMarcus Joyner (Four years, $42 million): moved to CB, benched in Year 2, cut
2020:
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LB Cory Littleton (three years, $35.3 million): suffered drastic decline in play
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LB Nick Kwiatkoski (three years, $21 million): lost starting job after one season
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EDGE Carl Nassib (three years, $25.3 million): four sacks in 19 games
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QB Marcus Mariota (two years, $17.6 million): 28 pass attempts with LAR
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DT Maliek Collins (one year, $6 million): one QB hit in 504 snaps
2021:
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EDGE Yannick Ngakoue (Two years, $26 million): two sacks in five games
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RB Kenyan Drake (Two years, $11 million): playing almost exclusively as receiving back, averaging 2.4 yards per carry
That’s a brutal list, and it might even undersell how dramatically these players dropped off. Whitehead, Nelson and Littleton went from being excellent in their prior spots to wildly disappointing with the Raiders. Williams might have been unlucky with injuries — and Mariota hasn’t been needed very often behind Derek Carr — but the franchise has nobody but itself to blame with someone such as Joyner. The 2014 second-rounder had bounced around the Rams’ defense before settling at free safety, where he emerged as a star. The Raiders promptly signed him and moved him back to slot corner, where he struggled wildly for two season before being released.
On the other hand, the best move the team made during the Gruden era was a much less notable free-agent signing. After Darren Waller dealt with substance abuse and moved to tight end, the Raiders signed him off Baltimore’s practice squad in 2018. He emerged as one of the most exciting tight ends in all of football in 2019. They quickly moved to sign him to a four-year, $29.8 million deal that October. At that price tag, he is one of the league’s most valuable non-quarterbacks on a veteran deal.
Owing to the missing draft picks and the disappointing top-100 selections, the Raiders have needed to be active in signing veterans to short-term, low-cost deals in free agency. The vast majority of those contracts are one-year pacts. The Raiders might be happy with players such as Casey Hayward Jr., Solomon Thomas and K.J. Wright, and their contracts are reasonable, but they’re all free agents after the season.
What’s left on the roster
The Raiders have one of the league’s least impressive cores. A coach or a general manager looking to build the organization would be looking at Miller and Crosby as the only under-25 players on whom they can count as above-average starters. A second tier might include players who have shown some promise but haven’t been consistently impactful, such as Edwards, Ruggs and Mullen, plus anyone who emerges from the 2021 class, with fifth-round corner Nate Hobbs off to a promising start. Waller just turned 29, and Carr is 30. Both will be looking for new deals after the season. So will Jacobs and Renfrow, who are useful, albeit at positions in which it’s often easy to find useful players. The Raiders simply aren’t in the same universe in terms of core talent as the other teams in the AFC West.
They have been able to approach league-average play by staying efficient and effective on offense. Gruden’s best asset as a coach was getting the most out of his offensive talent, especially in the passing game. Carr’s best seasons came in 2019 and 2020. Waller went from being a practice-squad player to a superstar. Every team passed on Renfrow multiple times. Receiver Nelson Agholor was essentially a meme before producing a career season with the Raiders in 2020.
These guys aren’t going to suddenly turn into afterthoughts without Gruden around, and the defense has been much better in 2021 than it was across the first three years of his regime, but the final game of his tenure was an example of how this team would look if the offense isn’t up to its prior level of play. In a 20-9 defeat to the Bears, the Raiders were buried with subpar field position, didn’t have a single play produce 30 yards or more and scored nine points on 10 possessions. Vegas’ 3-0 start marked the third year in a row in which it has enjoyed a three-game winning streak at some point during the season, but after the past two-plus weeks, it feels like another lifetime.
What’s next for the Raiders
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Raiders a 31.7% chance to make the playoffs. Making it to the postseason would probably encourage Davis to stick with the combination of Mayock and Bisaccia into 2022. If they fall short, they would presumably look to hire another coach, although Mayock’s future in that scenario would be unclear. Former head coaches such as Gus Bradley, Tom Cable and Rod Marinelli are also on staff, so it’s possible the Raiders could decide to promote one of their other assistants into the head role, as the Browns did when they named Freddie Kitchens head coach ahead of interim coach Gregg Williams before the 2019 season.
I’m not sure this will be a particularly appealing job. Vegas will be an exciting destination for free agents, but the talent gap between the Raiders and the rest of the division is apparent. Davis has been willing to spend on talent, and he’ll be saving money by not paying the remaining $60 million or so left on Gruden’s deal.
At the same time, consider what happened before Gruden arrived. Former general manager McKenzie took over a team that was in horrific salary-cap shape and missing draft picks after years of disastrous decisions by Al Davis and months of poor choices from former coach Hue Jackson. McKenzie’s Raiders ate nearly $77 million in dead money over 2012 and 2013 and began to work their way back. After drafting Mack and Cooper, they jumped from 3-13 in 2014 to 7-9 in 2015 and 12-4 in 2016. Their record was inflated by an unsustainable performance in one-score games, but for a team that hadn’t been to the playoffs or posted a winning record since 2002, 12-4 is 12-4.
A year later, Davis got distracted by shiny things and fired coach Jack Del Rio after a disappointing season to give Gruden full control of football operations (McKenzie was let go in December 2018). That example is going to be in the back of anyone’s mind if they get approached by the organization. The next guy probably isn’t getting a 10-year deal.
What we learned
Gruden’s second act with the Raiders was an unqualified failure. Focusing solely on his work over the past few years, it was a failure in exactly the ways we would have expected based on his time in Tampa Bay. He did a solid job of running the offense and got just about everything else wrong. Virtually every one of his significant personnel decisions turned out to be a mistake. He dismantled the organization and turned the core he inherited into pennies on the dollar.
1:14
Stephen A. Smith believes Jon Gruden’s career is finished after reports of offensive emails he wrote over a 10-year period.
Organizations should learn from the tenures of Gruden and Jacksonville’s Urban Meyer, the other coach who was in the spotlight before Gruden resigned. Both would qualify as offensive minds with success in their past. They were each charismatic on television and capable of convincing ownership that they were single-handedly capable of turning around their fallen franchises. They were each given control of football operations despite the fact that Meyer has never been involved with pro personnel and Gruden’s track record as football czar in Tampa, Florida, was spotty at best.
If you’re hiring a coach, giving him complete control of football operations and resting the entire organization on his shoulders, you better make sure he’s up to the task. Even before the revelations of the past few days, it was clear that Gruden was not.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day was candid in his postgame assessment of the Buckeyes’ 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling on Saturday, acknowledging it was “not a matchup game.”
That was the theme of Week 2, which featured multiple contenders playing FCS opponents or other unranked, lower-level teams. That doesn’t mean there weren’t a few lessons learned.
“Regardless of your opponent, you can see good execution,” Day said. “Whether it’s penalties, assignments, spacing, timing — there’s a crispness to anybody you play.”
Not everyone demonstrated that crispness on Saturday against weaker competition — and it changed the playoff pecking order. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Clemson.) This list is fluid — and it should be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The win against Texas gives the Buckeyes a case for the top spot, as does the eye test, as quarterback Julian Sayin continues to flourish with his accuracy, consistency and minimal mistakes in his first year as a starter. The defense under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia continues to look stifling. Ohio State also benefited this week from Clemson’s struggles against Troy, because it takes some of the shine off LSU’s season-opening road win against Clemson. While Clemson struggled, Texas reasserted itself. The selection committee members would include those results in their discussions as they determine who had the better Week 1 win. With Clemson dropping out of this week’s top 12, that honor now goes to Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still believe that LSU is the better team and reward it for a season-opening road win. Ohio State manhandled Grambling from the onset, a glorified practice in the Shoe against a SWAC team that trailed 35-0 at the half. The committee would consider that both of Ohio State’s wins were at home.
Need to know: The selection committee isn’t supposed to consider last year’s results, so Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t a part of its deliberations, nor is the Associated Press poll ranking. The group evaluates the teams based on their current résumés, so how Texas fares will eventually impact how much the committee values that season-opening win against the Longhorns.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will again have home-field advantage for another marquee matchup, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes’ win against Notre Dame in the season opener separates them from the teams ranked below. They also showed no signs of a letdown against FCS Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Quarterback Carson Beck completed 22 of his first 24 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Canes also accounted for three touchdowns on the ground — a balanced offense the Wildcats had no answer for. The biggest difference for Miami through two games, though, has been a dominant defense.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still reward LSU for winning on the road, whereas both of Miami’s wins were at home. The Seminoles’ win against Bama will carry weight in the room as long as the Tide keep winning, but the reality is that Miami’s win against Notre Dame looks better — at least through two weeks.
Need to know: With Clemson struggling against Troy and losing to LSU, Miami now has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff (46.5%) and earn a first-round bye as one of the committee’s top four teams (14.6%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes get rival Florida at home later this month, but they have to travel to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles have quickly asserted themselves as a team to take seriously this year.
Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still separating the Tigers from other contenders, but it lost some of its impact after Clemson had an underwhelming defensive performance and its offense was stagnant for a second straight week — this time against Troy. LSU had its own issues offensively against Louisiana Tech, which was able to put pressure on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier throughout the game. LSU struggled to establish the run and push the ball downfield through the bulk of three quarters against Louisiana Tech. While LSU struggled, both Ohio State and Miami left no doubt they were the better team.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee does consider factors such as where the game was played, and of the top three teams, LSU is the only one with a win on the road against what is probably still a CFP Top 25 team.
Need to know: The CFP selection committee this year is using a metric called “record strength” to help determine how a team performed against its schedule. LSU entered Week 2 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, second only to Ohio State.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Kentucky 30-23 for their first SEC win and have a 69.8% chance to beat LSU, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Seminoles are still scoring. FSU racked up 70 points against FCS team East Texas A&M — through three quarters. It finished with a 77-3 victory. This FSU team is doing everything it can to make the selection committee forget the 2024 team that won two games. Florida State’s Week 1 win against Alabama was one of the most notable nationally and will continue to help the Noles if the Tide finish as a Top 25 CFP team. The committee also compares common opponents, and although beating East Texas A&M will be a moot point on Selection Day, it’s at least interesting to note that fellow ACC team SMU set the bar in Week 1 when it beat the Lions 42-13.
Why they could be lower: The committee tracks wins against FCS opponents and rewards teams that played tougher opponents. Beating the now 0-2 Lions from the Southland Conference — even with a sledgehammer — isn’t going to earn the Seminoles any bonus points in the room.
Need to know: If the Seminoles can win the unofficial state title by beating rivals Miami and Florida, they could be competing for one of the top four spots and an at-large bid, assuming they finish with one loss or better. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives FSU less than a 50% chance to beat each in-state rival.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win. If that’s FSU’s only regular-season loss, though, the two could meet again in the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State — they led 41-3 at the half — giving them a win against a struggling Big 12 program. The selection committee would view this as a better win than the lopsided beatdown the Ducks handed FCS opponent Montana State in Week 1. The committee respects sheer dominance, though, as evidenced by last year’s evaluation of Indiana, and for the second straight week, Oregon scored at least 59 points.
Why they could be lower: Both of the Ducks’ wins have come against significantly weaker opponents, and both were at home.
Need to know: Oregon won’t play a ranked opponent until it travels to Penn State later this month, and if the Ducks don’t win that game, their best chances to impress the selection committee against CFP Top 25 opponents during the regular season will likely be against Indiana and USC.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 67.7% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule that they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: Penn State shut out FIU and played a clean game with no penalties or turnovers — the first time the program has done that since Oct. 25, 2008, at Ohio State — but every team ranked above the Nittany Lions here has a better win on its résumé.
Why they could be lower: There are still some questions about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions converted just 3 of 12 third downs and were 2-of-4 on fourth down. They also had a slow start — 10-0 halftime lead — and the pass protection from the offensive line was shaky at times.
Need to know: If Penn State goes 0-2 against Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions might have only one win against a CFP Top 25 opponent (Indiana). That’s a scenario where a weak nonconference lineup (Nevada, FIU and Villanova) could haunt them.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols have scored at least 45 points in back-to-back games. They have not missed a step without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The season-opening win against Syracuse was respectable, but the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2, so the jury is still out on the true value of that nonconference win. It’s still better, though, than what some other contenders are lining up and knocking down. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, when the Vols hammered FCS opponent East Tennessee State.
Why they could be higher: There could be a debate between the Vols and Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are the only team ranked above Tennessee without a Power 4 win. Tennessee’s win against a Southern Conference team won’t impress the committee, but unlike Penn State, the Vols have been consistently dominant on offense.
Need to know: Tennessee has the eighth-best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor (51%).
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been more productive than the Bulldogs’ so far, but ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 60% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are right where they’re supposed to be — undefeated heading into Tennessee — but it hasn’t always been pretty. Georgia closed as 46.5-point favorites against Austin Peay and was clinging to an 11-point halftime lead, its narrowest against a non-FBS opponent since 2016 against Nicholls State. Wins against Marshall and Austin Peay wouldn’t stack up well in the selection committee meeting room against some of the wins earned by the teams ranked above the Bulldogs.
Why they could be lower: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t have a single passing touchdown against Austin Peay. He didn’t need to with the Bulldogs’ four rushing touchdowns, but the Dawgs were also stuffed to end the first half after a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (79.7%) and a first-round bye (50.7%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. If Arch Manning continues to improve and can find ways to execute the explosive plays he had on Saturday against SEC competition, the Longhorns will again be one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC.
Why they could be here: Arch Manning and the Longhorns got what they needed — a convincing win against an overmatched opponent and a shot of confidence. But a lopsided win against now 0-2 San Jose State isn’t going to give Texas the boost it needs in the selection committee meeting room. The Longhorns won’t have another opportunity against a ranked opponent until their SEC opener on Oct. 4 at Florida — if the Gators are still a Top 25 team after losing at home to South Florida. The offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, though, is something committee members would notice and continue to track. After a slow start, the Longhorns scored three touchdowns in three minutes and 12 seconds. Manning had four touchdowns on 10 completions at one point in the first half.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to see the committee putting Texas lower during a week in which other contenders also played lower-caliber opponents.
Need to know: If Texas doesn’t lock up a spot in the CFP as the SEC champ, it should still have a strong enough résumé as a two-loss team to earn an at-large bid. Where it gets a little tricky is with a third loss, and that’s where not having a nonconference win against a Power 4 opponent would enter the committee’s discussion. ESPN’s FPI, though, projects Texas to finish as a two-loss team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. This could be a preview of the SEC championship game (again). ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 54% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Irish were idle following their 27-24 season-opening loss at Miami, and the selection committee doesn’t typically move teams that don’t play — unless it’s a result of shuffling around them. The loss to the Canes didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the top 10 because it was close and on the road to a ranked team capable of winning the ACC.
Why they could be lower: Simply because other teams have won two games.
Need to know: How Notre Dame’s opponents fare is critical to the selection process, and it helped the Irish (albeit slightly for now) that Boise State rebounded from its season-opening loss to South Florida. The better the Broncos play, the more respect Notre Dame will earn in the committee meeting room if it beats them on Oct. 4.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame will win out and has the second-best chance to do so behind Ohio State. The rivalry game against the Trojans, though, is the closest thing remaining to a coin toss. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 56.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: For the second straight week, the Illini scored at least 45 points, and this time they did it on the road against a respectable Duke team that won nine games last year. It was a convincing nonconference win on the same night South Carolina struggled to get its offense going early at home against South Carolina State. Iowa State garnered some consideration for this spot after its rivalry win against Iowa, but it didn’t help the Cyclones that Kansas State lost to Army (which also lost to Tarleton State). The selection committee considers opponents’ opponents. The Illini’s win wasn’t flawless, but they’re a veteran team that was able to capitalize on Duke’s mistakes on a night when other contenders either beat up on weaker teams or struggled against them.
Why they could be lower: Illinois led by just one at halftime and was aided by five Duke turnovers. South Carolina has a similar nonconference win against an ACC team, as it opened with a win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies also lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Need to know: Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Oregon or Penn State during the regular season. That doesn’t mean the schedule is easy, but it’s manageable enough to earn an at-large spot if Illinois looks the part of a playoff team and doesn’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 81.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: A nonconference win against a ranked Big Ten opponent will earn respect in the selection committee meeting room. It also came on a day when Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State, one of the SEC’s lower-tier teams, and Florida lost to South Florida at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense got enough pressure on Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to disrupt the Wolverines’ passing game. Sooners quarterback John Mateer accounted for two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown but wasn’t flawless.
Why they could be lower: The Sooners got an upgrade in Mateer, but he can’t do everything. The dual-threat quarterback led the team in passing and rushing, but Oklahoma will need more from its ground game against the SEC schedule.
Need to know: This head-to-head result could come into play later if the Sooners and Michigan are competing for an at-large spot. It’s a tiebreaker in the committee meeting room, and as long as their records are the same, OU will have the edge on Michigan. If Oklahoma is going to stay in the playoff race, though, it has to move up in the ranking, because right now it would be bumped out to make room for the Big 12 champ or the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 USF/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 LSU
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While Week 2 of the college football season did not offer the blockbuster matchups we saw in Week 1, it nonetheless packed a significant punch.
The biggest blows were delivered by South Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon, which scored significant wins that boosted their standing in the College Football Playoff pecking order. But there were plenty of other results — some upsets, some near-misses and some less-than-stellar victories — that impacted the overall bowl picture.
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas
Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: Welcome to the party, South Florida. After dominating Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls backed that up by shocking Florida 18-16. That’s two wins against ranked opponents to start the season, and while the jury remains out on how good Boise State and Florida actually are, no other Group of 5 team can claim as good a start. And for that reason, USF earns the No. 5 projected-champion spot this week.
The other big move this week is Oklahoma, which jumped into picture with a strong showing against Michigan. The John Mateer pickup has worked out as designed so far, and with Temple, Auburn and Kent State up next on the schedule, the expectation here is that the Sooners will take a 5-0 record into the Red River Rivalry game with Texas on Oct. 11.
Schlabach: Most of the top CFP contenders beat up on lesser opponents this week, but there was some shakeup in my top 12 because of a couple of surprising results. I dropped Clemson and Utah for Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy 27-16 at home (the Trojans led 16-0 late in the second quarter), which was probably a result of a hangover from a season-opening loss to LSU.
Utah is still one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I thought it was appropriate to reward the Cyclones for their 16-13 victory over Iowa on Saturday. Likewise for Oklahoma, which was impressive in its 24-13 win over Michigan at home. With a stingy defense and Mateer running the offense, the Sooners could be a serious CFP player this season.
South Florida also gets my Group of 5 conference champion pick after it stunned Florida in the Swamp. If USF can somehow make it three in a row at No. 5 Miami next week, it would be in the driver’s seat for a CFP bid.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just beat Oklahoma State — the Ducks demoralized the Cowboys. No living person was around the last time Oklahoma State lost by as many points, underscoring how lopsided the 69-3 win was. A quarterfinal matchup between the Ducks and Texas would be appointment viewing, but there are really no bad possibilities for this round — at least at this point in the season. This is another benefit of the change to not grant the byes to the top four conference champions. It ensures better matchups in the quarters.
Schlabach: The top six teams in my bracket remain unchanged, although I did shuffle the order after Georgia looked sloppy in its 28-6 victory against FCS program Austin Peay at home. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles and couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on three straight plays at the end of the first half. It wasn’t the kind of performance Georgia coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee.
I dropped the Bulldogs from No. 4 to No. 6 in the seedings, behind No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks had one of the most impressive performances of the week with their 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State. Oregon piled up 631 yards of offense and returned two interceptions for touchdowns, handing Mike Gundy the worst loss in his 20-year tenure at his alma mater.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: As the SEC and Big Ten arms race continues, just imagine the bragging rights that will come when one of the conferences sends two teams to the championship game for the first time in the expanded playoff era. Both leagues have a chance to achieve that this year, but right now — even though it’s way too early in the season to have a real sense of anything — the Big Ten looks like it has better odds. My current projection has Ohio State and Oregon playing for it all, a repeat of last year’s quarterfinal win by the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Schlabach: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon rolled this week, while LSU looked a little lethargic in its 23-7 win against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers might have still been celebrating their 17-10 win at Clemson in Week 1. They’re going to have to be more consistent if they’re going to be a legitimate CFP title contender.
Like Kyle, I am projecting a rematch of last season’s Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl, but I have them meeting in the semifinals, with the Buckeyes again prevailing.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State
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