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As we begin to hit the shops ahead of Christmas, retail sales are back to pre-pandemic levels for the first time since restrictions eased in April.

We are now spending more on items like clothing and furnishings than we were in February 2020, according to real-time credit and debit card data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

But Sky News analysis of new data from the Local Data Company suggests there are fewer shops for us to visit – and that the slump of the high street long pre-dated the pandemic.

The decline of the British pub has been well-documented, but since 2016, retail shops have experienced similar closures. The number of retail units in Great Britain has fallen almost 7% over the past decade.

But many of them are being replaced by hospitality outlets. Since 2013, the number of independent cafes and tearooms has risen 10% and the number of chain coffee shops has increased by 7%.

Is cafe culture spreading across the UK?

The fastest growth has been in the East of England and the West Midlands, which now have almost a fifth more cafes and coffee shops as they had in 2013.

The North West has also experienced relatively rapid growth and now has the second highest density of hospitality venues after London at 28 per 100,000 people.

Of course, the capital has long been the cafe-centre of the UK. But while it still has by far the most cafes, coffee shops and tearooms per 100,000 people at almost 43, there’s only been modest growth since 2013.

Professor Michael Kenny, director of the Bennett Institute of Public Policy, says that many places are rebuilding their high streets around social spaces.

“There’s evidence to suggest that the more social opportunities there are, the more likely it is that people will spend more time and – some research suggests – more money in the town centre,” he says.

The government’s High Streets Task Force found that more retail-dependent high streets experienced a larger decline in footfall in the year to June 2020 than those also offering shoppers a range of social and leisure services.

This chimes with a survey by business consultancy CACI, which found that consumers who visit cafes and restaurants spend around 48% more in the surrounding retail businesses.

So, how are the UK’s high streets faring?

Despite the pick up in spending ahead of Christmas, average high-street footfall at the start of November was still only three-quarters of the level it was in early 2020, and as low as 53% in London, according to data from Centre for Cities.

Footfall has returned to normal in only a handful of places like Blackpool and Southend.

The Centre for Cities data compares today’s footfall with average levels in February and March 2020. One reason for the differences between cities could be seasonal variations, such as more people travelling to seaside towns during half-term holidays.

However, Valentine Quinio, an analyst at the Centre for Cities, says that this is unlikely to affect the most recent data.

“Comparing November to February, I would assume there’s not that much difference in terms of seasonality,” she says. “When we look at what’s happened in the first week of November, that’s post-half term and so we’re looking at a normal period.”

Is this helping to level up the rest of the UK?

A comparison of the Centre for Cities’ high street recovery index with pre-pandemic average earnings shows that poorer areas have bounced back quicker.

Ms Quinio says that city size and affluence are key determinants of a high street’s recovery.

“Large cities tend to have a high proportion of office jobs, which can be done from home and that’s of course related to affluence,” she says.

“The fact that people are still reluctant to go back to the office explains why we’re still seeing slower recovery in larger cities, while smaller places rely a bit more on the weekend trade and that’s bounced back.”

But, this will not necessarily help to level up smaller, less affluent areas, as many of them had relatively weak local economies to start with.

“In many of these places, the levelling up challenges that they faced – lack of footfall, lack of consumer spending power, high vacancy rates on the high street – all these issues are still there and still need to be addressed,” she says.

“It’s not the restaurant that attracts the high-skilled jobs, it’s the opposite. That means to address the levelling up agenda we need to invest in skills and we need to make city centres a good place to do business.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Eco-tycoon Vince weighs sale of solar energy project

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Eco-tycoon Vince weighs sale of solar energy project

The energy group founded by Dale Vince, the eco-tycoon, is kicking off a hunt for investors in a solar park which is expected to become one of Britain’s biggest renewable energy projects.

Sky News understands that Ecotricity, Mr Vince’s company, has hired KPMG to explore talks with prospective investors or buyers for the project at Heckington Fen in Lincolnshire.

The development was approved by Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, earlier this year, and when completed it is expected to generate roughly 600MW of solar power.

It has been designated a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project by the government.

Heckington Fen will also provide 400MW of battery storage capacity.

According to documents circulated to potential bidders, Ecotricity is prioritising the sale of 100% of the project, but is open to retaining a minority stake.

The company wants to complete a deal during the third quarter of the year.

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Responding to an enquiry from Sky News, Mr Vince said: “Heckington Fen is a fabulous opportunity; it’s also a massive one, possibly the biggest onshore renewable initiative in Britain.

“The project is shovel-ready with a grid connection in 2028 – something which is increasingly hard to find these days.

“Whilst this is a great project which is going to go ahead, the sums of money required to build this alone in a short timeframe, means we’re looking for investors or partners to help make this happen.”

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Sir Keir Starmer pledges to protect UK companies from Trump tariff ‘storm’

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Sir Keir Starmer pledges to protect UK companies from Trump tariff 'storm'

Sir Keir Starmer has said his government stands ready to use industrial policy to “shelter British business from the storm” after Donald Trump’s new 10% tariff kicked in.

The UK was among a number of countries hit with the lowest import duty rate following the president’s announcement on 2 April – which he called ‘Liberation Day’, while other nations, such as Vietnam, Cambodia and China face much higher US levies.

But a global trade war will hurt the UK’s open economy.

The prime minister said “these new times demand a new mentality”, after the 10% tax on British imports into America came into force on Saturday. A 25% US levy on all foreign car imports was introduced on Thursday.

It comes as Jaguar Land Rover announced it would “pause” shipments to the US for a month, as firms grapple with the new taxes.

On Saturday, the car manufacturer said it was working to “address the new trading terms” and was looking to “develop our mid to longer-term plans”.

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Jobs fears as Jaguar halts shipments

Referring to the tariffs, Sir Keir said “the immediate priority is to keep calm and fight for the best deal”.

Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, he said that in the coming days “we will turbocharge plans that will improve our domestic competitiveness”, adding: “We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm.”

It is believed a number of announcements could be made soon as ministers look to encourage growth.

NI contribution rate for employers goes up

From Sunday, the rate of employer NICs (national insurance contributions) increased from 13.8% to 15%.

At the same time, firms will also pay more because the government lowered the salary threshold at which companies start paying NICs from £9,100 to £5,000.

Also, the FTSE 100 of leading UK companies had its worst day of trading since the start of the pandemic on Friday, with banks among some of the firms to suffer the sharpest losses.

Sir Keir said: “This week, the government will do everything necessary to protect Britain’s national interest. Because when global economic sands are shifting, our laser focus on delivering for Britain will not. And these new times demand a new mentality.”

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Trump defiant despite markets

UK spared highest tariff rates

Some of the highest rates have been applied to “worst offender” countries including some in Southeast Asia. Imports from Cambodia will be subject to a 49% tariff, while those from Vietnam will face a 46% rate. Chinese goods will be hit with a 34% tariff.

Imports from France will have a 20% tariff, the rate which has been set for European Union nations. These will come into effect on 9 April.

Read more:
Red wall on Wall Street – but Trump undeterred
How will UK respond to Trump’s tariffs?

Sir Keir has been speaking to foreign leaders on the phone over the weekend, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, to discuss the tariff changes.

A Downing Street spokesperson said of the conversation between Sir Keir and Mr Macron: “They agreed that a trade war was in nobody’s interests but nothing should be off the table and that it was important to keep business updated on developments.

“The prime minister and president also shared their concerns about the global economic and security impact, particularly in Southeast Asia.”

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Trump’s warning

Mr Trump has warned Americans the tariffs “won’t be easy”, but urged them to “hang tough”.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said: “We are bringing back jobs and businesses like never before.

“Already, more than FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS OF INVESTMENT, and rising fast!

“THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy, but the end result will be historic.”

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Santander UK lines up ex-Treasury chief Scholar as new chair

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Santander UK lines up ex-Treasury chief Scholar as new chair

Sir Tom Scholar, the former top Treasury civil servant sacked by Liz Truss during her premiership, is being lined up as the next chairman of Santander UK, Britain’s fifth-biggest high street bank.

Sky News has learnt that Sir Tom, who played a pivotal role in the UK’s response to the 2008 financial crisis, is the leading candidate to replace William Vereker.

The appointment, which is subject to regulatory approval, could be announced later in the spring, according to insiders.

Sir Tom’s prospective recruitment comes amid a period of intense speculation about the future of Santander UK, which bulked up rapidly during the banking crisis by absorbing Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley.

The Spanish banking giant entered the British retail market in 2004 when it bought Abbey National, setting in motion a chain of dealmaking which would result in it becoming a serious challenger to Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest Group.

If confirmed in the role, Sir Tom will follow a pattern of former senior public officials in taking on the chairmanship of Santander UK.

The post has been held in the past by Baroness Vadera, a Treasury minister during the 2008 meltdown, and Lord Burns, the former Treasury permanent secretary.

Sir Tom also held that latter role until his ousting during the shortlived Truss government, which led to him receiving a payoff of more than £350,000.

In addition to his position during the banking crisis, he was instrumental in devising the COVID-19 furlough scheme, which protected millions of private sector jobs during the series of lockdowns imposed on the British public.

He was widely respected among international banking regulators and finance ministers, and his sacking by Ms Truss sparked fury among senior civil servants.

Since leaving the Treasury, he has been appointed as chair of the European operations of Nomura, the Japanese bank.

At Santander UK, he will work closely with Mike Regnier, the former building society boss who has been its chief executive since 2022.

In recent months, there has been growing speculation that Santander UK’s parent is open to a sale of the business amid frustration about the scope and burden of British banking regulation.

Both Barclays and NatWest have been sounded out about a potential merger of their UK retail businesses with that of Santander UK, although formal talks have not progressed to a meaningful stage.

Ana Botin, Santander’s group executive chair, has appeared to publicly rule out a disposal, saying that the UK remains a “core market” for the group.

An attractively priced offer could yet gain Ms Botin’s attention, according to people close to the earlier talks.

One insider said, however, that Sir Tom’s recruitment was likely to dampen further speculation about a possible sale of the British business.

Shares in the Madrid-listed parent company, Banco Santander, have performed strongly in recent months, but fell by more than 8% on Friday as investors digested the fallout from President Donald Trump’s global tariffs blitz.

The company now has a market capitalisation of about €83.25bn (£70.7bn).

City sources said the search for Mr Vereker’s successor had been led by Heidrick & Struggles, the headhunter, in conjunction with Baroness Morgan, the former cabinet minister who sits on Santander UK’s board as its senior independent director.

This weekend, Santander UK said in a statement issued to Sky News: “Santander UK is conducting a thorough appointment process.

“The new chair will be announced once that process has concluded, including having obtained board and regulatory approval.”

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