The argument now distracting and dominating the European Union is an unequal battle with the potential for far-reaching consequences.
On one side is Poland, enthusiastically supported by Hungary, and determined to prove that one of the fundamental tenets of European solidarity isn’t so fundamental after all.
On the other side is, well, just about everyone else. Some of them pressing for a conciliatory “let’s not be too harsh” debate; others wanting to go in hard.
The cause of all this anger is one of those bits of domestic news that sounds dry but has explosive potential.
Image: Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo speaks to journalists at the summit
In short, the country’s top court, acting on a request from Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, declared that, in some areas, the national constitution took precedence over European law.
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And that has set great, big alarm bells ringing. Because the golden rule of EU Club is that EU Club laws always come first. They must take primacy, to coin a phrase that has popped up a lot over the past few days.
“If you want to have the advantages of being in a club, then you need to respect the rules,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo said. “You can’t be a member of a club and say ‘the rules don’t apply to me’.”
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The Polish Prime Minister does not agree, accusing the EU of “blackmail” because of suggestions that Poland could now face sanctions. He said his country was “ready for dialogue” but refused to distance himself from the controversial court ruling.
There is no mechanism for throwing Poland out of the EU (not that anybody would want to go anywhere near that far) and, realistically, Poland has no desire to leave, either. So instead, the question is whether the EU wants to levy a punishment.
That could mean withholding financial payments, for instance, or curtailing the country’s rights as a member state.
It wouldn’t be unprecedented – Poland is already facing daily fines of half a million Euros for continuing to extract lignite from a mine near the border with the Czech Republic in defiance of a court order. There is a suspicion that Mr Morawiecki is rather relishing his battle with Brussels.
Image: Mr Morawiecki at a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels
But he is not alone. Viktor Orban, the populist Prime Minister of Hungary, has repeatedly infuriated the EU with his own policies. Here, he came to town ready to leap to Poland’s defence.
“Poland – the best country in Europe – there’s no need to have any sanctions,” he said.
“We are not building fronts here, we are fighting for issues which are important for our own nations. So we make an alliance and fight together – this is the logic we are doing here. It’s not like the cold war or something like that, creating blocs.”
So, I asked Mr Orban, did he agree – did he think that Hungarian law held primacy over EU law?
He smiled. In fact, he almost laughed. “The fact is very clear that the primacy of EU law is not in the treaty at all. So the EU has primacy where it has competences. The question is about the competences.
“What’s going on here is that – regularly – European Institutions circumvent the rights of the national parliament and government and modify the treaty without having any legitimate authority to do so. So the Polish are right.”
He told me there was no schism between the east and west of Europe, but rather “between common sense and non-common sense”. With a shrug, he declared that the idea of levying sanctions against Poland was “ridiculous”.
So we are heading for a proper row. Is it worth it – the EU going into a political battle with one of its own members? It’s a question I put to the Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte.
Image: Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte says Poland has to take ‘the necessary steps’
“I think we have to be tough but I think the question is how do you get there,” he told me. “My argument will be that the independence of the Polish judiciary is the key issue which we have to discuss and we have to settle.
“Poland has to take the necessary steps – that is non-negotiable. This has to do with the foundations of our democracy in this part of the world. So here we cannot negotiate.”
Of course, the EU has plenty of form at creating a crisis, only to then come up with a way to solve it. But this doesn’t feel stage-managed. It feels awkward and painful – the Germans, for instance, don’t seem to want to interfere, but nor do they want to be seen as too passive.
But Poland has popped up repeatedly in recent missives from Brussels. Its border with Belarus has been the site for migrants being pushed towards Europe by President Lukashenko, only to be stopped in their tracks by the Polish police.
Its rules on LGBTQ+ rights have been widely criticised, as have the country’s laws on equality.
And, just like Mr Orban, Poland’s prime minister seems to see political capital in having a row with other EU leaders (especially ones from the west) while retaining the financial advantages of EU membership.
So this won’t end with Poland leaving, or being dismissed from the club. But we may be heading for an almighty row, that leads to… we don’t know where.
The 69-year-old Chicago-born cardinal was not seen as a frontrunner but quickly secured the required two-thirds majority.
There was jubilation in St Peter’s Square when white smoke emerged and about an hour later the Pope’s identity was revealed when he stepped onto the balcony.
The choice of Leo is the first time the name has been used since Leo XII – the pope from 1878 to 1903.
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Moment new pope emerges on balcony
Image: People celebrated the new pope’s announcement in St Peter’s Square. Pic: Reuters
Sky News understands one of the first things the Pope did was greet staff at his former residence, Sant’Uffizio Palace, just outside the Vatican.
All eyes will now be on his first mass, when he and other cardinals return to the Sistine Chapel around 10am.
Pope Leo’s first words as leader of 1.4 billion Catholics on Thursday evening were “may peace be with all of you”.
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Conclave: How the last 48 hours unfolded
His balcony speech also paid tribute to his predecessor – who only made him cardinal two years ago and brought him from Peru for a senior Vatican role.
“The pope that blessed Rome gave his blessing to the whole world on that Easter morning. So let us follow up that blessing,” said Leo.
He also called for a “church that builds bridges” and is “able to receive everybody that needs our charity, our presence, dialogue and love”.
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0:43
Trump comments on first US pope
There has long been a taboo against a US pope – given the influence the country already has – but Leo was promoted as a “compromise candidate” ahead of conclave.
His many years as a missionary in Peru are also believed to have given him more universal appeal, especially among the cardinals from Central and South America.
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President Donald Trump told reporters having an American in the role for the first time was a “great honour” – and Time magazine has already revealed its cover celebrating the moment.
However, the Pope appears to have taken issue with some of the Trump administration’s views and policies.
His X account posted a link in February to an article criticising comments by the vice president entitled: “JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn’t ask us to rank our love for others”.
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In April, when President Trump met El Salvador’s leader about using a notorious prison for suspected US gang members, he shared another post stating: “Do you not see the suffering? Is your conscience not disturbed? How can you stay quiet?”
‘Pope played Wordle before conclave’
With many now waiting on the Pope’s next public comments, his brothers have revealed their surprise when they saw him emerge in the white robes on TV.
“When the cardinal came out and started to read his name, as soon as he went “raw” I knew he was gonna say ‘Roberto’ – and he did – and I just freaked out.”
Mr Prevost added: “We’ve kind of known he was special, and we used to tease him about being pope when he was six years old and stuff.”
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The Pope’s other brother said he had been in contact with him before conclave and joked about watching the hit film of the same name.
“I said did you watch the movie Conclave so you know how to behave,” John Prevost told NBC News.
“And he had just finished watching the movie so knew how to behave; so it’s that kind of stuff because I wanted to take his mind off of it – because this is now an awesome responsibility.”
He also revealed the brothers had played online puzzles Wordle and Words with Friends to take the Pope’s mind off things in the run-up to the election.
He was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023 and appointed head of the dicastery for bishops, a powerful position responsible for selecting new bishops.
Significantly, he presided over one of Francis’s most revolutionary reforms when he added three women to the voting bloc which decides on the bishop nominations sent to the Pope.
Image: Bishop Robert Prevost leading a celebration in Peru last August. Pic: AP
As cardinal, he said little on key issues of the church, but some of his positions are known.
He is reportedly very close to Francis’s vision regarding the environment, outreach to the poor and migrants. He said in 2024 “the bishop is not supposed to be a little prince sitting in his kingdom”.
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He also supported Pope Francis’s stance on allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion.
However, he only showed mild support for Francis allowing priests to bless same-sex couples.
Image: Cardinal Prevost being appointed by Francis in 2023. Pic: EPA/Shutterstock
Pope Leo has years of experience in leadership roles within the church.
He was twice elected to the top position of the Augustinian religious order and Francis clearly had an eye on his progress – moving him from the Augustinian leadership back to Peru in 2014, where he served as administrator and later archbishop of Chiclayo.
He acquired Peruvian citizenship in 2015 and remained in Chiclayo until 2023, when Francis brought him to Rome.
Image: Pope Leo’s years in Peru made him a more universal candidate for the papacy. Pic: AP
While there has long been a taboo against a US pope – given the geopolitical power the US already wields – Leo was being promoted as a “compromise candidate” ahead of the conclave.
The amount of time he has spent in Peru also allowed him to be seen as a more universal candidate.
The world learned a new pope had been chosen at around 6.08pm local time (5.08pm UK time) on Thursday as white smoke suddenly emerged from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel.
Delivering an address from the balcony, Pope Leo – speaking in Italian – told the crowds: “Peace be with you all.”
He then thanked his predecessor and repeated Francis’s call for a church that is engaged with the modern world and “always looking for peace, charity and being close to people, especially those who are suffering”.
Image: Newly-elected Pope Leo XIV appears on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican. Pic: Reuters
“Together we must try to find out how to be a church that builds bridges, establishes dialogue and is open to receiving everybody,” he said.
Speaking in Spanish, he added: “I would particularly like to say hello to my compatriots from Peru.
There is a long list of demands in the new pope’s in-tray, ranging from the position of women in the church to the ongoing fight against sexual abuse and restoring papal finances.
People both inside the Catholic Church and around the world will be watching how the new pontiff deals with them.
Here, Sky News Europe correspondent Siobhan Robbins takes an in-depth look at the challenges facing the new pontiff.
Sexual abuse
Many Catholic insiders credit Pope Francis with going further than any of his predecessors to address sexual abuse.
He gathered bishops together for a conference on the issue in 2019 and that led to a change that allows cooperating with civil courts if needed during abuse cases.
But it didn’t go as far as forcing the disclosure of all information gathered in relation to child abuse.
Any abuse allegations must now be referred to church leaders, but reformers stopped short of decreeing that such cases should also be automatically referred to the police.
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6:27
Clerical abuse victim says church still has ‘so much to do’
While many abuse victims agree they saw progress under Pope Francis, who spent a lot of time listening to their accounts, they say reforms didn’t go far enough.
The next pope will be under pressure to take strong action on the issue.
Image: Newly-elected Pope Leo XIV appears on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican. Pic: Reuters
Women
Pope Francis also did more to promote women in the Vatican than any other pontiff.
Two years ago, he allowed women to vote in a significant meeting of bishops.
While he was clear he wanted women to have more opportunities, he resisted the idea that they needed to be part of the church hierarchy and didn’t change the rules on women being ordained.
Image: A woman kneels at St. Peter’s Square, on the first day of the conclave to elect the new pope. Pic: Reuters
His successor will need to decide if they push this agenda forward or rein it back in.
It’s a pressing concern as women do a huge amount of the work in schools and hospitals, but many are frustrated about being treated as second-class citizens. 10,000 nuns a year have left in the decade from 2012 to 2022, according to Vatican figures.
Inclusion
“Who am I to judge?” Pope Francis famously said when asked about a gay monsignor in 2013.
His supporters say he sought to make the church more open, including allowing blessings for same sex couples but while critics argue he didn’t go far enough, some conservatives were outraged.
Image: A gay couple kiss at a Catholic protest against the legalisation of gay marriage in Mexico. File pic: Reuters
African bishops collectively rejected blessings for same sex couples, saying “it would cause confusion and would be in direct contradiction to the cultural ethos of African communities”.
How welcome LGBTQ+ people feel in the church will depend partly on decisions made by the pontiff.
Conversely, the Pope must also bring together disparate groups within the Catholic faith.
Many are demanding a leader who can unite the various factions and bring stability in an increasingly unstable world.
The global south
While the Catholic church is losing members in its traditional base of Europe, it’s growing rapidly in the global south.
The area has become the new centre of gravity for Catholicism with huge followings in countries like Brazil, Mexico and the Philippines.
Pope Francis tried to expand representation by appointing more cardinals from different areas of the world, and the new Pope will be expected to continue this.
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1:02
Behind the scenes at the conclave
Finance
The Vatican is facing a serious financial crisis.
The budget deficit has tripled since Pope Francis’s election and the pension fund has a shortfall of up to €2bn (£1.7bn).
These money worries, which were compounded by COVID-19 and long-standing bureaucratic challenges, represent a major concern for the next pope.