The Bar For Climate Ambition Is Set By Science, Not Congressional Politics

Published

3 years ago

October 23, 2021

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Originally published by Union of Concerned Scientists, The Equation.
By Julie McNamara, senior energy analyst with the Climate & Energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists

In April 2021, President Biden committed the United States to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, in line with science-informed targets, in line with the collective hunt to keep global warming below 2 degrees C, in line with the fight, the fight, the global fight to beat back the worst of climate impacts we could see.

Ever since, the scramble has been on for our nation to advance the charge.

Because while President Biden’s commitment to robust climate action is critical to setting the forward course, words alone will not guarantee progress. Wish as we might, we will not whoopsie-pie our way into the Great Decarbonized Place.

We need actual action.

We need actual policy, actual progress, actual change, commensurate with the level of action these climate targets require. And they will require a lot, as new modeling makes clear:

Credit: Rhodium Group, Pathways to Paris (October 2021)

Precisely because the present emissions gap is so great, we cannot solely lean on the incredible progress enabled by leading states, localities, businesses, and individuals. To truly bend the curve, we need federal action, too.

And that is what makes the repeated and escalating broadsides to the climate integrity of the Build Back Better Act — foremost among them attacks on the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) — so infuriating.

Because no matter what words are spun, what justifications are launched, we will still need to make up the gap. So for every measure of weakening Congress allows, for every degree of ambition our lawmakers abandon, it will simply make the hard task harder, placing a heavier burden on all the other efforts we need to make.

The Build Back Better Act as a chance for change

There was never going to be one legislative package to resolve the path to 2030 and beyond — not least because action will be required across all facets of government, not just Congress. But the Build Back Better Act (also referred to as the budget reconciliation package) was set up to advance climate action — along with so much else — at a level of ambition not previously seen, finally showing Congress going beyond its long-favored realm of tinkering at the edges to enact climate policies that would actually drive path-shifting, curve-bending change.

This is the type of ambition we’ve been waiting for; this is the type of ambition we need.

And this is the type of ambition that fossil fuel interests cannot abide.

So here we are now, staring down significant and multifaceted attacks to the very heart of that ambition, primarily through threats to the CEPP — which would spur the power sector to swiftly transition to clean sources — but also from additional threats to broader programmatic budgets and ambitions.

While compromise is par for the course, legislators cannot capitulate when it comes to including policies that enable major change. So for every cut, for every slash, they must answer: If not this, then what? Because we need major change.

Meeting 2030 targets hinges on power sector transition

To get climate action on track, emissions reductions will need to be drawn from all parts of the economy, all the way from cars on the road to buildings and homes. The Build Back Better Act includes multiple major policies to advance these efforts.

But for the race to 2030 targets, foremost among all the rest is achieving swift, deep reductions from the nation’s electric power sector. This is the foundation upon which so much else of our climate progress will be built, because the end goal for much of what runs on fossil fuels in our economy today is for it to run on electricity tomorrow — and that electricity must be clean.

We need policy interventions to support that.

Because while the nation’s power sector has been undergoing a significant transition away from heavily polluting coal, progress has been uneven and far too much of what has come online to fill the gaps has been still-polluting gas. The country is still hovering at 60 percent fossil fuels in its electricity mix, and coal generation is projected to increase, not decrease, this year.

To address this, policies can do two things: boost the good, and limit the bad.

We need both. We need both because while the former is vital to clean energy deployment, it studiously avoids antagonizing the fossil fuel-fired status quo, and history makes clear that fossil fuel interests will not voluntarily undertake this mission on their own.

This is the reason that the threat of the CEPP falling out of the Build Back Better Act is so significant. It’s not that there aren’t multiple additional policies that will help to spur clean electricity deployment in the bill—there are, and they are incredible, from updated and broadened tax incentives to support for transitioning fossil fuel assets — it’s that the CEPP includes targets, and the CEPP includes sticks.

Without the CEPP, renewables would still be cheap, but they might not be evenly — or sufficiently — deployed, and too many utilities are at risk of sticking too tightly to coal and gas. And that could lead to a non-trivial erosion of the emissions reduction potential of the legislation, as estimated by multiple recent analyses.

So if the CEPP falls out, what comes next?

Within the Build Back Better Act, Congress can approximate the same power sector intent from other types of programs that similarly support both sides of this transition, i.e., toward renewables and away from polluting fossil fuels. It can also look elsewhere to achieve deeper cuts in other sectors.

But it would be a heavy lift. And all the more so if other major initiatives in the Build Back Better Act fall out, from critical environmental justice initiatives to the robust clean energy tax incentives to the methane fee, which the fossil fuel industry is doing everything in its power to unwind.

And otherwise? It’s on to other actors, and a heavier burden for each.

If not this, then what?

No matter what happens with the Build Back Better Act, to reach the 2030 climate targets set by President Biden, the country will need to bring every lever to bear, from states, localities, and businesses to the federal government, Congress and the administration both, and the country will need to look to every economic sector for gains, and the country will need to sustain these efforts throughout the years to come. Any less in one area means more required by the rest.

Recent modeling by Rhodium Group supports this finding, making clear that a forward path exists even if the CEPP falls out. But it would require even more progress by leading states, and rapid action by the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal agencies across multiple sectors, from standards limiting new, unmitigated gas-fired power plants to near-term coverage of refineries and other major emitters.

Much as fossil fuel interests might wish it, undermining one major tool for climate action doesn’t make the problem go away — it just forces taking other, often more difficult, ways.

We do not have time for craven capitulation to inaction. It’s time to make the leap.

Featured image courtesy of NASA. When launched, the TROPICS satellites will work together to provide near-hourly microwave observations of a storm’s precipitation, temperature, and humidity. The mission is expected to help scientists understand the factors driving tropical cyclone intensification and to improve forecasting models. Credits: NASA

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Environment

In a milestone, the US exceeds 5 million solar installations

Published

6 hours ago

May 16, 2024

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In a milestone, the US exceeds 5 million solar installations

US solar installations — Photo by RAZE Solar on Unsplash

The US has now officially surpassed 5 million solar installations, a significant landmark in its shift toward clean energy, according to data released by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie.

The 5 million milestone comes just eight years after the US achieved its first million in 2016 – a stark contrast to the four decades it took to reach that initial milestone since the first grid-connected solar project in 1973.

Since the beginning of 2020, more than half of all US solar installations have come online, and over 25% have been activated since the Inflation Reduction Act became law 20 months ago. Solar arrays have been installed on homes and businesses and as utility-scale solar farms. The US solar market was valued at $51 billion in 2023.

SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said, “Today, 7% of homes in America have solar, and this number will grow to over 15% of US homes by 2030. Solar is quickly becoming the dominant source of electricity on the grid, allowing communities to breathe cleaner air and lead healthier lives.”

Even with changes in state policies, market trends indicate robust growth in solar installations across the US. According to SEIA forecasts, the number of solar installations is expected to double to 10 million by 2030 and triple to 15 million by 2034.

The residential sector represents 97% of all US solar installations. This sector has consistently set new records for annual installations over the past several years, achieving new highs for five straight years and in 10 out of the last 12 years. The significant growth in residential solar can be attributed to its proven value as an investment for homeowners who wish to manage their energy costs more effectively.

California is the frontrunner with 2 million solar installations, though recent state policies have significantly damaged its rooftop solar market. Meanwhile, other states are experiencing rapid growth. For example, Illinois, which had only 2,500 solar installations in 2017, now boasts over 87,000. Similarly, Florida has seen its solar installations surge from 22,000 in 2017 to 235,000 today.

By 2030, 22 states or territories are anticipated to surpass 100,000 solar installations. The US has enough solar installed to cover every residential rooftop in the Four Corners states of Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico.

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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. – ad*

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Environment

In April, Tesla prices were higher month-over-month but lower year-over-year

Published

13 hours ago

May 15, 2024

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In April, Tesla prices were higher month-over-month but lower year-over-year

Tesla posted larger-than-average ATP (average transaction price) increases month-over-month in April, but its prices were lower year-over-year, reports Kelley Blue Book.

April saw Tesla post a month-over-month ATP increase of 5.7% compared to March, but the EV giant’s prices were lower year-over-year by 3.3%, according to EV transaction price data from Kelley Blue Book’s newly released April Average Transaction Price report.

Tesla prices have been a key driver of volatile price dynamics in both the luxury and EV markets because it’s the highest-volume seller in both segments. Tesla prices plummeted from $62,269 in January 2023 to $50,099 in December 2023, a decline of 19.5%.

EV transaction prices in April were essentially flat compared to March – up roughly 0.1% – at $55,252, an increase of only $75 from the prior month. Year-over-year, the average transaction price for an EV was down 8.5%, thanks in part to price pressure on EVs driven by slowing sales, healthy inventory, and more competition.

EV incentive packages remain well above the industry average, in many cases more than 15-20% of the average transaction price.

Some popular EVs posted significant year-over-year price reductions in April – Ford F-150 Lightning’s transaction prices were down 23%, Ford Mustang Mach-e’s were down 15%, Tesla Model Ys were down 12%, and Hyundai Ioniq 6s were down 10%.

However, most EVs presently transact for prices lower than a year ago by approximately 4-5%.

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Environment

BYD launches new Shark PHEV as its first pickup to rival Toyota’s Hilux, Ford Ranger

Published

13 hours ago

May 15, 2024

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BYD launches new Shark PHEV as its first pickup to rival Toyota's Hilux, Ford Ranger

A new electrified pickup is hitting the global market. China’s BYD introduced its new Shark plug-in hybrid (PHEV) pickup in Mexico this week. The new BYD Shark is poised to compete against top-selling trucks globally, like the Toyota Hilux and Ford Ranger.

BYD confirmed its first electrified pickup will be called the Shark last month after years of speculation.

The pickup was spotted for the first time by CarNewsChina at BYD’s facility in November 2022, and the anticipation has been building ever since. We’ve seen leaked patents giving away the design, prototype testing, and more, but the Shark is finally officially here.

BYD introduced the Shark PHEV pickup in Mexico at an overnight launch event. The hybrid pickup will be available in two variants: the GL and GS.

The base GL starts at 899,980 pesos ($53,400), while the GS costs 969,800 pesos ($58,100). Based on BYD’s DMO platform, the Shark features 170 kW (228 hp) front and 150 kW (201 hp) rear motors.

With 429 combined hp, the hybrid truck can sprint from 0 to 62 mph (0 to 100 km/h) in 5.7 seconds. Powered by a 29.58 kWh BYD Blade battery, the Shark has all-electric NEDC range of 100 km (62 mi). Combined NEDC range is 840 km (522 mi).

Meet BYD’s first pickup, the Shark plug-in hybrid

According to BYD, the Shark has low charge fuel consumption of 7.5 L per 100 km, which is 40% lower than that of full gas-powered engine pickups.

At 5,457 mm long, 1,971 mm wide, and 1,925 mm tall, the BYD Shark will directly rival top-selling trucks like the Toyota Hilux (5,325 mm long X 1,855 mm wide X 1,815 mm tall) and Ford Ranger (5,370 mm long X 1,918 mm wide X 1,884 mm tall).

BYD’s new pickup has up to 5,512 lbs (2,500 kg) towing capacity and 1,841 lbs (835 kg) max payload.

Inside, you can see other BYD design features, such as a rotatable 12.8″ center screen and 10.25″ instrument panel.

BYD America CEO Stella Li confirmed the company has no plans to sell the Shark, or any passenger EV (BYD already sells electric buses in the US), in the US. Meanwhile, BYD does plan to take the Shark globally.

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BYD Shark PHEV pickup (Source: BYD)

A right-hand drive prototype was spotted testing in Australia earlier this year, suggesting it could launch there soon. Other global markets will likely include Thailand, South Africa, and parts of Europe. Stay tuned for more info on the BYD Shark as it hits new markets.

Source: CnEVPost, BYD

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