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When Rishi Sunak stands up to deliver his budget and three-year spending review on Wednesday it will be his first real opportunity to set the tenor of his chancellorship unencumbered from the immediate crisis of COVID – although the fall-out of this pandemic will undoubtedly loom large.

It will make a change for a chancellor who has spent his first 20 months in office embroiled in the biggest public health crisis seen in a century, which in turn triggered an economic crisis that has left the public debt – borrowing accumulated over time – at about 95% of GDP, the highest level in more than 50 years.

Having guided the country through the past 18 months, spending hundreds of billions to prop up public services, people’s pay packets, and businesses, the chancellor is now focused on the post-pandemic rebuild.

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What can we expect from the budget?

On Wednesday, Mr Sunak will set out on that journey in his first-ever joint budget and Spending Review, in which he will set the ‘spending envelope’ – how much total government spending will be over the next three years – as he divides up funds between different departments.

‘Highly unlikely’ to see further tax rises

A big set piece event, government ministers and economists are not expecting a big tax and spend budget, those decisions have already been taken: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has only just announced a manifesto-busting £12bn hike in national insurance to fund the NHS and social care, while Mr Sunak lifted corporation tax and the freezing of personal allowances in the March budget.

“This is the third big fiscal event of the year. We’ve already had a budget and huge tax rises, so it’s highly unlikely we’ll see the raising of any taxes,” said Paul Johnson of the Institute of Fiscal Studies.

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“We don’t expect to see a cut in spending, but a lot of departments will still have less to spend, not least because spending on the NHS keeps taking a big slice of pie.”

Government insiders say all departments will see an increase in their day-to-day budgets in real terms, but eyes will be on how unprotected areas of government – the Ministry of Justice, the Home Office, local government – fare in terms of their spending settlements, given that more than 40% of spending overall is now funnelled into the NHS and social care.

But if this is not to be a headline-grabbing budget, allies hope it will be the moment in which this war-footing chancellor finally gets to show his peacetime approach to the job is reforming and fiscally responsible.

Mr Sunak cites Nigel Lawson – the Thatcher-era chancellor who reduced the top rate of income tax from 83% to 40% – as the predecessor from whom he draws inspiration.

“He doesn’t want to be driven just by events,” says one ally.

“He wants to be a reformer and come out of this crisis with fresh eyes about how the Treasury might do things better.”

Business rate reform on the back-burner

To that end, the chancellor is expected to announce a simplification of alcohol duties in this budget, halving the 15 different bands of duties to simplify taxes.

It will be billed as totemic of Mr Sunak’s desire to reform and simplify the tax system as well as a post-Brexit opportunity – the UK can do this because it’s no longer bound by EU directives on alcohol taxation.

File photo dated 15/1/2021 of people walking along the high street in Loughborough, Leicestershire. The Prime Minister is being urged not to rip up another tax pledge by increasing the tax burden on high street shops, pubs and restaurants. Retail tax experts have warned that the Government could land firms with a 700 million rise in business rates in England next April unless it confirms changes to the property tax system. Issue date: Monday September 13, 2021.
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The reform of business rates has been put on the back burner

What he won’t do this time around however is reform business rates, delaying again the fundamental overhaul of the system promised in the Conservative Party’s 2019 manifesto and followed up by a review in Spring 2020.

Allies say Mr Sunak does want to reform the system, and level up between bricks and mortar businesses and virtual ones – he is considering whether to introduce an online sales tax – but has decided to push business rates reforms into next year.

One ally said the reality is that the chancellor hasn’t had the time to do the work on what is a policy-dense and politically fiddly policy area. It will no doubt disappoint businesses, and the chancellor’s ability to overhaul the system before the next election will become a test of how much of a reforming chancellor he really is.

Mr Sunak will also use the budget to build on his conference speech as he stresses again the need for fiscal responsibility – his slogan for the speech will be along the lines of ‘responsible choices for a stronger economy’.

Reining in government borrowing

The chancellor has set current spending plans around an ambition to stop borrowing to fund day-to-day spending within three years, and the expectation is that he could use the budget to set out formal rules to rein in government borrowing in order to demonstrate fiscal discipline ahead of the next election.

But this budget is more than just an opportunity for Mr Sunak to signal he is both a reformer and fiscally disciplined, he will also use this moment to reiterate the prime minister’s amorphous levelling-up agenda.

England’s city regions will receive £7bn for transport improvements as the chancellor looks to improve services for those living in Greater Manchester, the West Midlands and South Yorkshire.

Decisions on the future of the High Speed 2 rail line from London to northern England and an upgrade of the trans-Pennine line from Leeds to Manchester (dubbed HS3) will be made after the budget, when the Integrated Rail Plan is announced.

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Is there going to be HS2 extension into Leeds?

The chancellor is also expected to announce a standard annual rise for the minimum wage in the budget, pushing it closer to £10, from £8.91 an hour for over-23s (the National Living Wage). In 2019, the former chancellor Sajid Javid promised to lift the minimum wage to £10.50 an hour for over-21s by 2024.

COVID still looms large

If you asked the chancellor what most worried him about the coming months, I suspect COVID would inevitably loom large.

The risk of a new COVID variant could put the country, and the economy, back on its heels – and even if the gloomiest scenario doesn’t come to pass, what is more certain is that this chancellor is living with uncertainty.

File photo dated 12/01/21 of ambulances at Whitechapel hospital in London. A majority of the issues in Scotland's hospitals and the knock-on effect to the ambulance service are not due to Covid, a top surgeon has said. Issue date: Friday September 17, 2021.
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The aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis will still loom large

Supply chain shortages, inflation, rising prices, and the possibility of rising interest rates: it is a fiendishly complicated and volatile landscape upon which to build a post-COVID recovery.

While the prime minister told Sky News last month that fears over inflation have proved “unfounded”, it is thought that the chancellor and other cabinet ministers are very worried about inflationary pressure and the knock-on effect it could have on the cost of living, interest rates and public finances, as a 1% interest rate rise increases government debt repayments by £21bn a year – equivalent to the entire defence budget.

“It’s unpredictable at the moment,” says the IFS’s Paul Johnson.

“The fiscal outlook is so dependent on what the OBR forecast the economy will be in three years time, but determining what he’s got to spend because of fiscal rules, comes with huge uncertainty.

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“Even ignoring COVID we don’t really understand where the economy is at the moment. And in addition, we don’t know whether COVID will peter out or cause more problems, so he is fighting in fog.”

A chance then this week for the chancellor to set out the principles that will guide him. But the path ahead is still too hard to tread with any confidence.

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Jeremy Corbyn declines to call Zarah Sultana a friend as Your Party holds first conference

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Jeremy Corbyn declines to call Zarah Sultana a friend as Your Party holds first conference

Jeremy Corbyn has declined to say his Your Party co-founder Zarah Sultana is a friend as supporters of the new grouping gather in Liverpool.

Speaking to Sky News on the eve of the conference, Mr Corbyn acknowledged “stresses and strains” in the set-up of the party but said it had become “a lot better in the last few days and weeks and we’re going to get through this weekend”.

The former Labour leader has publicly clashed with Ms Sultana, the MP for Coventry South, over the launch and structure of the new party.

Asked if they were friends, Mr Corbyn said they were “colleagues in parliament, and we obviously communicate and so on”.

The pair appeared at separate events on the eve of the party’s inaugural gathering.

Ms Sultana had previously claimed she was being “sidelined” by a “sexist boys’ club” within the fledgling party.

Mr Corbyn said her comments were an “unfortunate choice of words” but added that he had been more involved in the organisation of the conference than she had.

The co-founders have had a strained relationship since setting up the party. Pic: Your Party
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The co-founders have had a strained relationship since setting up the party. Pic: Your Party

The Islington North MP also said that Your Party was still waiting for Ms Sultana to transfer all of the funds she had raised from supporters.

“Obviously having money up front for a conference is a big help,” he said.

Ms Sultana has insisted she is transferring the donations in stages.

The weekend gathering in Liverpool will see supporters choose between four options for a permanent party name: Your Party, Our Party, Popular Alliance, For the Many.

The preferred choice of Ms Sultana – The Left – did not make the ballot.

Similarly, the Coventry MP had said she favoured a co-leader approach, but members will only be able to pick between single leadership or collective leadership models.

Speaking at her own pre-conference rally, Ms Sultana blamed a “nameless, faceless bureaucrat” for restricting the choices.

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The meeting also risked being disrupted by a series of member expulsions. One of those ejected, Lewis Nielsen, accused a “clique” of trying to “take over”.

Your Party sources said expulsions related to members of the Socialist Workers Party and that holding another national party membership was not allowed.

Ms Sultana blamed a “culture of paranoia at the top” and said she believed the same people who had been briefing against her were now also expelling members.

Mr Corbyn will open the conference on Saturday, while the results of the main decision-making votes will be announced on Sunday.

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Asylum seekers to be banned from using taxis for medical appointments

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Asylum seekers to be banned from using taxis for medical appointments

A ban on asylum seekers using taxis for most medical journeys has been announced by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.

Under the new rules, taxi use for medical travel will be restricted to “exceptional” cases such as physical disability, pregnancy or serious illness – and these will require government approval.

Ms Mahmood made the announcement after a BBC investigation found “widespread” use of taxis by asylum seekers, including for long journeys – with one case involving a 250-mile trip to see a GP.

Transport for asylum seekers has cost the government an average of almost £16m a year, according to reports.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Pic: PA
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Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Pic: PA

All service providers will be required to stop using taxis for medical journeys from February next year and the government is now working to help introduce alternatives such as public transport.

“This government inherited Conservative contracts that are wasting billions of taxpayers’ hard-earned cash,” the home secretary said.

“I am ending the unrestricted use of taxis by asylum seekers for hospital appointments, authorising them only in the most exceptional circumstances.

“I will continue to root out waste as we close every single asylum hotel.”

Taxi drivers said the system was open to “abuse”, accusing sub-contractors of inflating mileage, for instance by dispatching drivers over long distances to perform much shorter journeys.

One told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme he had been dispatched from Gatwick to take an asylum seeker more than 50 miles away in Reading to an appointment only 1.5 miles from his hotel. A second driver was reportedly sent from Heathrow, about 30 miles away, to bring the same man back from the appointment.

The policy change comes after a Home Office review of transport arrangements for asylum seekers, it is understood.

Asylum system overhaul

It comes after a raft of measures to overhaul the asylum system was set out by Ms Mahmood earlier in November.

In an interview with Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby, she admitted the UK’s illegal immigrant numbers were “too high” – but said Reform UK leader Nigel Farage could “sod off” after he claimed she sounded like a Reform supporter.

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Home secretary sets out migration rules

The “restoring order and control” plan includes:

• The removal of more families with children – either voluntarily through cash incentives up to £3,000, or by force;
• Quadrupling the time successful asylum seekers must wait to claim permanent residency, from five to 20 years;
• Removing the legal obligation to provide financial support for those who have the right to work but choose not to;
• Setting up a new appeals body to significantly speed up the time it takes to decide whether to refuse an application;
• Reforming how the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) is interpreted in immigration cases;
• Banning visas for countries refusing to accept deportees;
• The establishment of new safe and legal refugee routes.

The home secretary told MPs it is an “uncomfortable truth” that Britain’s generous asylum offer, compared with other European countries, is attracting people to the UK – and for British taxpayers the system “feels out of control and unfair”.

However, the wide-ranging reforms have drawn criticism from Labour backbenchers.

Nadia Whittome MP called Ms Mahmood’s plans “dystopian” and “shameful”, while Richard Burgon MP said she should change course rather than be forced into a U-turn later.

So far this year, some 39,292 people have made the journey across the Channel, already more than last year’s numbers, but still below the total for the record year of 2022.

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Budget 2025: Hospitality pleads for ‘lifeline’ as Rachel Reeves accused of imposing ‘stealth tax’

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Budget 2025: Hospitality pleads for 'lifeline' as Rachel Reeves accused of imposing 'stealth tax'

Rachel Reeves has been accused of failing to “support the great British pub” as she promised in the budget, with owners facing skyrocketing business rates bills.

In her speech in the House of Commons on Wednesday, the chancellor said she was backing small businesses by introducing “permanently lower tax rates for over 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties – the lowest tax rates since 1991”.

But while the government gave itself the powers to discount the business rates bills for high street businesses through legislation earlier this year, the chancellor only implemented a reduction of a quarter of what the government is able to, and she is being accused of imposing a “stealth tax”.

It has left small retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses questioning whether their businesses will be viable beyond April next year.

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Sky’s Ed Conway looks at the aftermath of the budget and explains who the winners and losers are.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We’re protecting pubs, restaurants and cafes with the budget’s £4.3bn support package – capping bill rises so a typical independent pub will pay around £4,800 less next year than they otherwise would have.

“This comes on top of cutting licensing costs to help more venues offer pavement drinks and al fresco dining, maintaining our cut to alcohol duty on draught pints, and capping corporation tax.”

Business rates, which are a tax on commercial properties in England and Wales, are calculated through a complex formula of the value of the property, assessed by a government agency every three years, combined with a national “multiplier” set by the Treasury, giving a final cash amount.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been accused of imposing a "stealth tax" on hospitality businesses. Pic: PA
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been accused of imposing a “stealth tax” on hospitality businesses. Pic: PA

Over the last few years, small businesses were given business rates relief of 75% to support them over the COVID pandemic, and Ms Reeves reduced that to 40% at last year’s budget.

The idea was that at the budget this year, the chancellor would remove that remaining relief in favour of reforming the business rates system to compensate for that drop, while shifting the tax burden on to much bigger businesses and companies like Amazon with lots of warehouse space.

However, the chancellor only announced a 5p in the pound discount for small retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses, rather than the assumed 20p drop which the government gave itself the powers to implement, and which trade bodies had been lobbying for.

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How will your personal finances change following the budget announced by the chancellor?

On top of that, small businesses have seen the government-assessed value of their property increase dramatically, which wipes out the discount, and sees their business rates bill shoot far above what they had previously been paying.

One pub owner near Hull, Sam Caroll, has seen the assessed value of one of his two properties increase from £67,000 to £110,000 in just three years – a 64% increase.

He told Sky News that there is a “continual question” of business viability, and while he thinks they can “adapt” in the short term, “there will be a tipping point at some point”. Even at the moment, packing out their pubs seven nights a week, “it’s difficult for us to break even”, he said.

There will be a discount for small businesses to transition to the higher business rates level, but by year three, almost the full amount is expected to be payable, and Mr Carroll described it as “getting f***** slowly, instead of getting f***** overnight”.

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Sean Hughes, who owns multiple hospitality venues in St Albans, has also seen vast increases in the assessed value of his properties, and was sharply critical of the transitional arrangements the government is implementing.

He told Sky News: “Fundamental business rate reform was promised and we have total chaos. If [the system] was fair, why would they need transitional relief periods?”

A spokesperson of the Valuation Office Agency (VOA), which assesses the value of commercial properties for business rates purposes, told Sky News: “At the last revaluation, some sectors including hospitality were significantly affected by the pandemic, which resulted in much lower rateable values than they would have seen otherwise. Businesses that have now seen a recovery in trade are also likely to see an increase in their rateable value.”

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However, Sky News has seen evidence of businesses whose assessed value did not decrease when assessed during the pandemic, but actually rose, and has risen dramatically this year.

Data compiled by the Pubs Advisory Service, shows that the number of pubs in the UK has decreased by nearly 5% in three years, but the average value of the properties has risen by an average of 36.82% per pub.

And analysis by UK Hospitality, the trade body that represents hospitality businesses, has found that over the next three years, the average pub will pay an extra £12,900 in business rates, even with the transitional arrangements, while an average hotel will see its bill soar by £205,200.

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The prime minister has defended the budget after he and the chancellor were accused of breaking their promise to voters.

The body adds that by 2028/29, an average pub’s business rates will have increased by 76% and an average hotel’s by 115%, compared to 16% for a distribution warehouse like the ones the web giants use.

It’s not just the business rates rise that is worrying owners – it is the increase in employers’ national insurance implemented at the last budget, the increase in energy bills over the last few years, and the rise in the minimum wage, particularly for young people.

With the budget set to squeeze disposal income, there is little room for price increases to make up the shortfall either.

In a letter to the chancellor on Friday, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said small business owners “have been pushed to tears as they’re hit with the bombshell of higher business rates bills”, noting that “the government has chosen not to use the full powers it gave itself to throw high streets a lifeline”.

She added that businesses had been promised “permanently lower business rates”, but it appears the government has “broken yet another promise, by imposing a stealth tax not just on people, but on treasured high street businesses too”, and called on ministers to “throw our high streets and Britain’s hospitality sector a lifeline”.

Conservative shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith published his own analysis of the government’s budget measures on Friday morning, that found they will “hammer British pubs”.

Of the chancellor, he said: “She pretended in her budget speech to be supportive, whilst the true detail is that a combination of rate revaluations and scrapping reliefs will leave most pubs paying thousands of pounds more than they cannot afford.”

Kate Nicholls, Chair of UKHospitality, said in a statement: “The government promised in its manifesto that it would level the playing field between the high street and online giants. The plan in the budget to achieve this is quickly unravelling, and will deliver the exact opposite.”

She said they “repeatedly warned the Treasury” of the impending impacted of the value reassessment, but nonetheless, hospitality businesses are now facing “eye-watering increases”.

She added: “We agree with its reforms to deliver permanently lower business rates for hospitality and we appreciate the package of transitional relief, but its current proposal is not delivering lower bills. A 20p discount for hospitality would. We urge the chancellor to revisit.”

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