COVID cases could fall significantly in November even without ‘Plan B’, modelling suggests
Coronavirus cases could fall significantly in November without any restrictions being reintroduced, modelling seen by the government suggests.
Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have predicted that – even without the government’s ‘Plan B’ – COVID cases, hospital admissions and deaths in England will peak in November and start to fall rapidly to much lower levels by Christmas.
According to their modelling, if the government reintroduces restrictions, delaying ‘back-to-normal’ behaviour until the spring, there will still be a drop in the coming weeks, but rates will rise again much faster next year.
Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, told Sky News the modelling suggests the UK is close to ‘endemic equilibrium’.
Modelling shows rates dropping in November. Credit: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
“Once you reach endemic equilibrium, non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing and mask wearing) stop having much of an effect.”
He said the main reason behind this is immunity levels.
“At the moment we’re hearing a lot of voices calling for increased restrictions,” he added.
“But the modellers are predicting incredibly low numbers by mid-December in pretty much all of their scenarios.
“So if they’re suggesting that even if we do nothing cases are going to decline substantially, more restrictions don’t seem to be the appropriate response.”
The LSHTM findings were one of several reports presented to the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-MO) last week, who warned that they could be “too optimistic”.
This is because the data they used does not take into account how certain events can change the way people behave – such as Euro 2020 or Christmas.
SPI-MO’s latest report cautions: “Increases in transmission around the time of the Euro 2020 football matches were not visible in the data sources.
“The mid-winter festive period usually sees different mixing behaviour that could have a similar effect to the Euro 2020 football matches.
“If similar were to happen again… it is possible that these modelling results may be too optimistic.”
They also do not take into account the new mutation of the Delta variant – AY4.2 – which scientists say could be 10% more infectious.
Similar modelling done by the University of Warwick uses a “more precautionary behaviour metric” and takes into account other winter pressures such as flu.
But despite the differences, Warwick, like LSHTM, predicts that a delay in ‘normal’ behaviour would see a more gradual decline in hospital admissions than if it stayed as it is.
It also predicts that “later, a combination of waning immunity, behaviour change and seasonality would result in a further wave”.
Warwick said the timing of another winter wave is “highly uncertain” but could peak anywhere between January and May.
SPI-MO advisers say that whatever happens to coronavirus case rates this winter, it is “highly unlikely” hospital admissions will peak as high as they did last winter.
They believe vaccine protection would have to decline significantly for changes in public behaviour to result in a repeat of last year.
The LSHTM also models potential drops in vaccine protection and the uptake of booster vaccines, but these both still point to a drop in rates this winter.
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If COVID immunity offered by vaccines wanes far more than it has so far, modellers predict there will be a much bigger peak next spring.
But Professor Hunter adds that booster vaccines – currently being given to the over-50s, NHS and social care workers and the clinically vulnerable – are proving “a lot more effective than we were expecting”.
A recent study by Pfizer showed that a third dose of its vaccine offers 95.6% protection against symptomatic infection.
“If that’s the case, then possibly there will be an increase in the speeding up of that reduction in rates,” Professor Hunter said.
The government has repeatedly resisted calls to reintroduce mandatory face masks and working from home as part of a Plan B to protect the NHS this winter.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid told Times Radio on Monday: “At the moment… we don’t think the data shows that we need to move to Plan B but that said, it’s really important that we all keep playing our part and that means getting vaccinated, especially if you’re eligible for the booster jab please come forward, and also just being cautious on a daily basis and following the advice.”
UK
‘A catastrophic scandal’: Inside the tower block so dangerous residents face being kicked out at any moment
The moment we step into Willow Rise, the smell of damp is overpowering.
There are water stains across the carpet and rotten wood on the doors.
Around the corner, there’s a hole in the wall, barely patched up with a piece of polystyrene sheet.
We’re meeting a resident on the 13th floor of the building in Kirkby, Merseyside – but the lifts are broken and wires hang out of the service panel.
Like everyone living here, we will have to walk.
The disrepair in this block is everywhere you look.
Damp staining and ceiling damage around the block
It has now been deemed so unsafe by Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service that they are days away from serving a rare prohibition notice on this tower and its neighbour, Beech Rise, meaning residents will have to leave with immediate effect.
In total, 160 households here face instant homelessness.
After climbing 13 flights of stairs, we meet Chris Penfold-Ivany.
‘A catastrophic scandal’
He has terminal cancer, and after chemotherapy and a liver transplant, that climb is now the only way he can get up to his flat.
Chris Penfold-Ivany warns ‘this is another Grenfell in the making’
He tells us it’s making him breathless. He can no longer get his prescriptions delivered, as the drivers won’t come up all the stairs.
“It’s a catastrophic scandal that we have been left like this,” he says.
He has lived in this flat for 15 years and has watched the block slowly begin to fall apart over the last decade.
He tells us that numerous complaints have achieved nothing. “I’m going to say it,” he says, “this is another Grenfell in the making.”
‘Nobody can live like this‘
A few floors down, Arunee Leerasiri opens the door to us, in floods of tears.
The stress of the last few weeks has left her anxious and overwhelmed. There are boxes everywhere, bare hooks on the walls where pictures hung.
She is packing up her life just three years after putting her life savings into buying this flat.
Arunee Leerasiri says she doesn’t even recognise her flat as her home anymore
Her elderly mother has come to visit, but she had to hire removal men already to take her mattress into storage as she couldn’t manage without the lifts.
Tonight, and until they are told they must leave, they will sleep on the floor.
“I can’t eat, I can’t sleep,” she tells us, through tears. “Sometimes, if I’m honest, I can’t even think. This used to be my home, and now I look around and I don’t even recognise it.”
“Nobody can live like this,” she adds.
‘Danger, 415 volts’
Water damage around electrical equipment, including a ‘Danger high voltage’ labelled box
She shows us a video she filmed just a few weeks ago, of one of the electrical risers on the ground floor.
None of us can quite believe what we are seeing – water is pouring through the ceiling, directly on to fuse boxes and electrical wiring.
Arunee takes us down to show us the cupboard. The water has now stopped but there are damp stains all over the floor and around the electrical equipment.
The water pipes and electric boxes are just inches away from one another within the cupboard.
One of the boxes, marked ‘Danger, 415 volts’, is rusted through.
Next to it, there is a notice stuck to a resident’s door telling them a leak has been identified in their flat – and as a leaseholder, they will be responsible for paying to fix it.
“Tell me, how is this safe?” Arunee says. “Why is this building allowed to be open for the public, as a dwelling, with this kind of set-up?”
A hole in a wall patched up with polystyrene
Hidden owners and a plea to the government
Merseyside Fire and Rescue tell us they have been serving enforcement notices on the building managers for years, to no avail.
They have now been told there is no money for the millions of pounds worth of repairs that will be needed to bring the blocks up to a safe standard.
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They have mandated a ‘waking watch’, where teams physically patrol the buildings daily to check for fire risks, without which they will serve the prohibition notice and tell residents they must leave straight away.
Knowsley Council has stepped in to pay for this temporarily – at a cost of £3,000 per day.
Their deputy leader tells us, though, that the money will soon run out.
Willow Rise and Beech Rise Towers in Merseyside have both been condemned by the fire service
Where to go?
With a complex management structure and several owners, managers and agents over the years, the council says it doesn’t even know who is to blame for the disrepair – or who even has the legal responsibility for maintaining the buildings.
It says discussions are ongoing with central government about whether any extra help – or money – can be provided to try to fix the mess.
Right now though, all the residents can do is wait.
With no date to leave and no idea if anything can be done to keep the buildings open, they are spending every day fearing the call to tell them they have to go.
They can only hope there will be somewhere for them if they do.
Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf has reversed his decision to quit the party, saying “the mission is too important” and that he “cannot let people down”.
Instead, he said he will return in a new role, heading up an Elon Musk-inspired “UK DOGE” team.
In a statement, he said: “Over the last 24 hours I have received a huge number of lovely and heartfelt messages from people who have expressed their dismay at my resignation, urging me to reconsider.”
He added: “I know the mission is too important and I cannot let people down.
“So, I will be continuing my work with Reform, my commitment redoubled.”
Mr Yusuf said he would be returning in a new role, seemingly focusing on cuts and efficiency within government.
He said he would “fight for taxpayers”.
Only two days prior, Mr Yusuf dramatically handed in his resignation.
He claimed he no longer thought getting a Reform government elected was a “good use of my time” – but has now seemingly changed his mind.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage welcomed the news of Mr Yusuf’s return.
He said: “I am delighted that Zia Yusuf will head up Reform UK’s DOGE department.”
Nigel Farage welcomed Zia Yusuf’s return. File pic: PA
Read more:
Why did Zia Yusuf resign as chairman of Reform UK?
Reform’s rise forces rethink for SNP
‘Farage could become PM’
Mr Yusuf’s initial decision to quit came after he publicly distanced himself from the party’s new MP, Sarah Pochin, when she asked Sir Keir Starmer about banning the burka at Prime Minister’s Questions.
Reform said a ban was not party policy – and the chairman called it a “dumb” thing to ask.
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What is DOGE?
DOGE is a meme-coin inspired creation of Musk’s, standing for the Department of Government Efficiency.
It is the latest right-wing US import into British politics.
Before his public fallout with Donald Trump, the tech billionaire said his focus was saving taxpayers’ money by locating wasteful spending within government and cutting it.
Read more: How Elon Musk’s mission to cut government spending fell flat
However, opposition politicians questioned the impact of his efforts and how much he actually saved.
Musk initially had ambitions to slash government spending by $2trn (£1.5trn) – but this was dramatically reduced to $1trn (£750bn) and then to just $150bn (£111bn).
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