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Coronavirus cases could fall significantly in November without any restrictions being reintroduced, modelling seen by the government suggests.

Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have predicted that – even without the government’s ‘Plan B’ – COVID cases, hospital admissions and deaths in England will peak in November and start to fall rapidly to much lower levels by Christmas.

According to their modelling, if the government reintroduces restrictions, delaying ‘back-to-normal’ behaviour until the spring, there will still be a drop in the coming weeks, but rates will rise again much faster next year.

Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, told Sky News the modelling suggests the UK is close to ‘endemic equilibrium’.

Modelling shows rates dropping in November. Credit: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Image:
Modelling shows rates dropping in November. Credit: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

“Once you reach endemic equilibrium, non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing and mask wearing) stop having much of an effect.”

He said the main reason behind this is immunity levels.

“At the moment we’re hearing a lot of voices calling for increased restrictions,” he added.

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“But the modellers are predicting incredibly low numbers by mid-December in pretty much all of their scenarios.

“So if they’re suggesting that even if we do nothing cases are going to decline substantially, more restrictions don’t seem to be the appropriate response.”

The LSHTM findings were one of several reports presented to the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-MO) last week, who warned that they could be “too optimistic”.

This is because the data they used does not take into account how certain events can change the way people behave – such as Euro 2020 or Christmas.

SPI-MO’s latest report cautions: “Increases in transmission around the time of the Euro 2020 football matches were not visible in the data sources.

“The mid-winter festive period usually sees different mixing behaviour that could have a similar effect to the Euro 2020 football matches.

“If similar were to happen again… it is possible that these modelling results may be too optimistic.”

They also do not take into account the new mutation of the Delta variant – AY4.2 – which scientists say could be 10% more infectious.

Similar modelling done by the University of Warwick uses a “more precautionary behaviour metric” and takes into account other winter pressures such as flu.

But despite the differences, Warwick, like LSHTM, predicts that a delay in ‘normal’ behaviour would see a more gradual decline in hospital admissions than if it stayed as it is.

It also predicts that “later, a combination of waning immunity, behaviour change and seasonality would result in a further wave”.

Warwick said the timing of another winter wave is “highly uncertain” but could peak anywhere between January and May.

SPI-MO advisers say that whatever happens to coronavirus case rates this winter, it is “highly unlikely” hospital admissions will peak as high as they did last winter.

They believe vaccine protection would have to decline significantly for changes in public behaviour to result in a repeat of last year.

The LSHTM also models potential drops in vaccine protection and the uptake of booster vaccines, but these both still point to a drop in rates this winter.

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If COVID immunity offered by vaccines wanes far more than it has so far, modellers predict there will be a much bigger peak next spring.

But Professor Hunter adds that booster vaccines – currently being given to the over-50s, NHS and social care workers and the clinically vulnerable – are proving “a lot more effective than we were expecting”.

A recent study by Pfizer showed that a third dose of its vaccine offers 95.6% protection against symptomatic infection.

“If that’s the case, then possibly there will be an increase in the speeding up of that reduction in rates,” Professor Hunter said.

The government has repeatedly resisted calls to reintroduce mandatory face masks and working from home as part of a Plan B to protect the NHS this winter.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid told Times Radio on Monday: “At the moment… we don’t think the data shows that we need to move to Plan B but that said, it’s really important that we all keep playing our part and that means getting vaccinated, especially if you’re eligible for the booster jab please come forward, and also just being cautious on a daily basis and following the advice.”

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Brent shooting: Police name 55-year-old man shot dead in Stonebridge

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Brent shooting: Police name 55-year-old man shot dead in Stonebridge

A man shot dead in northwest London has been named as 55-year-old Simon Whyte.

Detectives from the Metropolitan Police‘s Specialist Crime Team are appealing for witnesses, information and anyone with dashcam footage to come forward following the incident in Stonebridge, Brent, on Friday evening.

They are particularly keen to hear from a small group who were congregated nearby at the time.

Detective Chief Inspector Neil John said his thoughts were with Mr Whyte’s family and friends at this “incredibly difficult time”.

He added: “There’s no doubt this incident will cause concern in the local community and more widely, but we have increased patrols in the area.

“I’d like to reassure the public that our investigation remains a priority.”

He continued: “I would urge anyone who may have witnessed the incident or has information, including dashcam footage, that will assist us with our enquiries to contact us at the earliest opportunity.”

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Police were called just after 9.30pm on Friday to reports of a shooting in West End Close.

Officers administered emergency first aid and the London Ambulance Service attended the incident but Mr Whyte died at the scene.

No arrests have been made.

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Facewatch: The controversial tech that retailers have deployed to tackle shoplifting and violence

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Facewatch: The controversial tech that retailers have deployed to tackle shoplifting and violence

The Christmas period is upon us, and goods are flying off the shelves, but for some reason, the tills are not ringing as loudly as they should be.

Across the country, the five-finger discount is being used with such frequency that retailers are taking action into their own hands.

With concerns about the police response to shoplifting, many are now resorting to controversial facial recognition technology to catch culprits before they strike.

Sainsbury’s, Asda, Budgens and Sports Direct are among the high-street businesses that have signed up to Facewatch, a cloud-based facial recognition security system that scans faces as they enter a store. Those images are then compared to a database of known offenders and, if a match is found, an alert is set off to warn the business that a shoplifter has entered the premises.

It comes as official figures show shoplifting offences rose by 13% in the year to June, reaching almost 530,000 incidents. Figures reported in August showed more than 80% result in no charge.

At the same time, retailers are reporting more than 2,000 cases of violence or abuse against their staff every day. Faced with mounting losses and safety concerns, businesses say they are being forced to take security into their own hands because stretched police forces are only able to respond to a fraction of incidents.

A Facewatch camera
Image:
A Facewatch camera

At Ruxley Manor Garden Centre in south London, managing director James Evans said theft had become increasingly brazen and organised, with losses from shoplifting now accounting for around 1.5% of turnover. “That may sound small, but it represents a significant hit to the bottom line,” he said, pointing out that thousands of pounds’ worth of goods can be stolen in a single visit.

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“We have had instances where the children get sent in to do it. They know that the parents will be waiting in the car park and they’ll know that there’s nothing that we can do to stop them.”

Gurpreet Narwan is seen at the garden centre while being shown how Facewatch works
Image:
Gurpreet Narwan is seen at the garden centre while being shown how Facewatch works

Staff members here have also had their fair share of run-ins with shoplifters. In one case, employees trying to stop a suspected shoplifter were nearly struck by an accomplice in a car. “This is no longer just about stock loss,” said James, “It is about the safety of our staff.”

However, the technology is not without its critics. Civil liberties groups have warned that the expansion of this type of technology is eroding our privacy.

Silkie Carlo, director of Big Brother Watch, called it “a very dangerous kind of privatised policing industry”.

Facewatch is seen in operation as retailers look to crack down on crime.
Image:
Facewatch is seen in operation as retailers look to crack down on crime.

“[It] really threatens fairness and justice for us all, because now it’s the case that just going to do your supermarket shopping, a company is quietly taking your very sensitive biometric data. That’s data that’s as sensitive as your passport, and [it’s] making a judgement about whether you’re a criminal or not.”

Silkie said the organisation was routinely receiving messages from people who said they had been mistakenly targeted. They include Rennea Nelson, who was wrongly flagged as a shoplifter at a B&M store after being mistakenly added to the facial recognition database. Nelson said she was threatened with police action and warned that her immigration status could be at risk.

Gurpreet's profile can be seen on the Facewatch database
Image:
Gurpreet’s profile can be seen on the Facewatch database

“He said to me, if you don’t get out, I’m going to call the police. So at that point I turned around and I was like, are you speaking to me? Then he was like yes, yes, your face set off the alarm because you’re a thief… At that point, I was around six to seven months pregnant and I was having a high-risk pregnancy. I was already going through a lot of anxiety and, so him coming over and shouting at me, it was like really triggering me.”

The retailer later acknowledged the error and apologised, describing it as a rare case of human mistake.

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A spokesperson for B&M said: ‘This was a simple case of human error, and we sincerely apologise to Ms Nelson for any upset caused. Reported incidents like this are rare. Facewatch services are designed to operate strictly in compliance with UK GDPR and to help protect store colleagues from incidents of aggressive shoplifting.”

The cloud-based technology has critics who argue that it amounts to a misuse of personal data and privacy
Image:
The cloud-based technology has critics who argue that it amounts to a misuse of personal data and privacy

Nick Fisher, chief executive of Facewatch, said the backlash was disproportionate.

“Well, I think it’s designed to be quite alarmist, using language like ‘dystopian’, ‘orwellian’, ‘turning people into barcodes’,” he said.

“The inference of that is that we will identify people using biometric technology, hold and store their own, store their data. And that’s just, quite frankly, misleading. We only store and retain data of known repeat offenders, of which it’s been deemed to be proportionate and responsible to do so… I think in the world that we are currently operating in, as long as the technology is used and managed in a responsible, proportionate way, I can only see it being a force for good.”


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Yet, there is obviously widespread unease, if not anger, at the proliferation of this technology. Businesses are obviously alert to it, but the bottom line is calling.

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The links between Jeffrey Epstein and the UK revealed in new files

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The links between Jeffrey Epstein and the UK revealed in new files

Jeffrey Epstein led two different lives – sex offender and celebrity networker – and he did that in the UK as well as the US.

The newly released Epstein documents reveal, in particular, how the paedophile financier ascended into the highest levels of British society.

This photo of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor sprawled across the lap of several women, whose identities have been protected, speaks to his close relationship with Epstein’s former girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell, who was jailed for child sex trafficking and other offences in connection with Epstein. But the furnishings are even more revealing.

Epstein files – latest updates

Andrew Mountbatten Windsor pictured with Ghislaine Maxwell. Note: inclusion in Epstein files does not infer wrongdoing
Image:
Andrew Mountbatten Windsor pictured with Ghislaine Maxwell. Note: inclusion in Epstein files does not infer wrongdoing

Sky News matched the fireplace in this photo with the one in Sandringham, the estate where the royals tend to spend Christmas – (Andrew is not invited this year).

Andrew has vigorously denied any accusations against him.

Prince Charles, now King Charles III, at Sandringham with Prince Edward. Pic: PA
Image:
Prince Charles, now King Charles III, at Sandringham with Prince Edward. Pic: PA

Also included in the latest release are Epstein’s flight records. They provide some useful corroborating evidence.

A flight log from the Epstein files
Image:
A flight log from the Epstein files

On 9 March 2001, his plane landed at “EGGW” – Luton Airport – with JE, GM and VR on board – Jeffrey Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell and Virginia Roberts, better known by her married name of Virginia Giuffre and perhaps Epstein’s most famous accuser.

The next day is when this photo was alleged to have been taken, in London, of Giuffre and Andrew.

Prince Andrew, Virginia Roberts, aged 17, and Ghislaine Maxwell at Ghislaine Maxwell's townhouse in London, in March 2001
Image:
Prince Andrew, Virginia Roberts, aged 17, and Ghislaine Maxwell at Ghislaine Maxwell’s townhouse in London, in March 2001

Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell hunting, date unknown. Pic: US DoJ
Image:
Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell hunting, date unknown. Pic: US DoJ

Other photos show Maxwell on the steps of Downing Street – and power was as much a draw as celebrity.

Ghislaine Maxwell outside 10 Downing Street, date unknown. Pic: US DoJ
Image:
Ghislaine Maxwell outside 10 Downing Street, date unknown. Pic: US DoJ

On 15 May 2002, the flight records show Epstein again arriving at Luton.

A flight log from the Epstein files
Image:
A flight log from the Epstein files

The next day is when he met Tony Blair, prime minister at the time. This was before Epstein’s first arrest and there is no suggestion of wrongdoing.

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The meeting was arranged by Peter Mandelson, who lost his job as ambassador to the US because of his Epstein connections, and who features prominently in the files.

Peter Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein. Pic: US DoJ
Image:
Peter Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein. Pic: US DoJ

The UK was a draw for Epstein’s wider circle too – Maxwell here is pictured touring the Churchill War Rooms with Bill Clinton and Kevin Spacey. Neither are accused of wrongdoing or knowledge of Epstein’s crimes.

(L-R) Ghislaine Maxwell, Kevin Spacey and Bill Clinton, with three other men. Pic: US DoJ
Image:
(L-R) Ghislaine Maxwell, Kevin Spacey and Bill Clinton, with three other men. Pic: US DoJ

And the other grim life that Epstein led, of sex trafficking, also had British links.

A page from the Epstein files
Image:
A page from the Epstein files

Another document released in the files, from 2019, shows witness testimony from Maxwell’s trial. In it, a victim is mentioned who is “17 years old” and who grew up “in England”. She would later be taken to Epstein’s private Caribbean island.

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