COVID cases could fall significantly in November even without ‘Plan B’, modelling suggests
Coronavirus cases could fall significantly in November without any restrictions being reintroduced, modelling seen by the government suggests.
Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have predicted that – even without the government’s ‘Plan B’ – COVID cases, hospital admissions and deaths in England will peak in November and start to fall rapidly to much lower levels by Christmas.
According to their modelling, if the government reintroduces restrictions, delaying ‘back-to-normal’ behaviour until the spring, there will still be a drop in the coming weeks, but rates will rise again much faster next year.
Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, told Sky News the modelling suggests the UK is close to ‘endemic equilibrium’.
Modelling shows rates dropping in November. Credit: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
“Once you reach endemic equilibrium, non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing and mask wearing) stop having much of an effect.”
He said the main reason behind this is immunity levels.
“At the moment we’re hearing a lot of voices calling for increased restrictions,” he added.
“But the modellers are predicting incredibly low numbers by mid-December in pretty much all of their scenarios.
“So if they’re suggesting that even if we do nothing cases are going to decline substantially, more restrictions don’t seem to be the appropriate response.”
The LSHTM findings were one of several reports presented to the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-MO) last week, who warned that they could be “too optimistic”.
This is because the data they used does not take into account how certain events can change the way people behave – such as Euro 2020 or Christmas.
SPI-MO’s latest report cautions: “Increases in transmission around the time of the Euro 2020 football matches were not visible in the data sources.
“The mid-winter festive period usually sees different mixing behaviour that could have a similar effect to the Euro 2020 football matches.
“If similar were to happen again… it is possible that these modelling results may be too optimistic.”
They also do not take into account the new mutation of the Delta variant – AY4.2 – which scientists say could be 10% more infectious.
Similar modelling done by the University of Warwick uses a “more precautionary behaviour metric” and takes into account other winter pressures such as flu.
But despite the differences, Warwick, like LSHTM, predicts that a delay in ‘normal’ behaviour would see a more gradual decline in hospital admissions than if it stayed as it is.
It also predicts that “later, a combination of waning immunity, behaviour change and seasonality would result in a further wave”.
Warwick said the timing of another winter wave is “highly uncertain” but could peak anywhere between January and May.
SPI-MO advisers say that whatever happens to coronavirus case rates this winter, it is “highly unlikely” hospital admissions will peak as high as they did last winter.
They believe vaccine protection would have to decline significantly for changes in public behaviour to result in a repeat of last year.
The LSHTM also models potential drops in vaccine protection and the uptake of booster vaccines, but these both still point to a drop in rates this winter.
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If COVID immunity offered by vaccines wanes far more than it has so far, modellers predict there will be a much bigger peak next spring.
But Professor Hunter adds that booster vaccines – currently being given to the over-50s, NHS and social care workers and the clinically vulnerable – are proving “a lot more effective than we were expecting”.
A recent study by Pfizer showed that a third dose of its vaccine offers 95.6% protection against symptomatic infection.
“If that’s the case, then possibly there will be an increase in the speeding up of that reduction in rates,” Professor Hunter said.
The government has repeatedly resisted calls to reintroduce mandatory face masks and working from home as part of a Plan B to protect the NHS this winter.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid told Times Radio on Monday: “At the moment… we don’t think the data shows that we need to move to Plan B but that said, it’s really important that we all keep playing our part and that means getting vaccinated, especially if you’re eligible for the booster jab please come forward, and also just being cautious on a daily basis and following the advice.”
UK
Family of nine-year-old Aria Thorpe pay tribute to ‘beautiful soul’ as teen appears in court charged with murder
The family of a nine-year-old girl stabbed to death have said she was a “beautiful soul” who was brave, kind-hearted and “always put a smile on people’s faces”.
Police were called to Lime Close in Weston-super-Mare, Somerset, just before 6.10pm on Monday, where Aria Thorpe had suffered a single stab wound.
The child was pronounced dead at the scene.
In a tribute released by Avon and Somerset Police on Friday, the girl’s family on her mother’s side said: “For those who didn’t have the privilege of knowing Aria, she was the most beautiful little soul – happy-go-lucky, full of light, and joy.
“She loved to sing and dance, and she took such pride in dressing up, always wanting to look just like her mummy.”
Tom Thorpe, the girl’s father, said: “It’s hard to put into words how devastating it is, our little Aria, that you’re up there with the angels looking over us.”
It comes as a 15-year-old boy charged with Aria’s murder appeared in court.
Pic: Avon and Somerset Police
Aria was a ‘precious girl’
In their statement, Aria’s family on her mother’s side said her death “has devastated us beyond words”.
“Our hearts are broken in a way we never imagined possible,” they added.
“As a family, we are holding one another close and doing everything we can to support each other through this unimaginable time.”
They said they were “truly touched by the lovely messages we have received”, before asking “that our privacy is respected, as we try to come to terms with the terrible loss of our precious girl”.
Flowers laid in memory of the young girl
‘Wacky ways and outright madness’
Mr Thorpe said: “How sad it’s going to be not hearing ‘Dad, how long left?’ on our long journeys back and forth at weekends.
He then said that Aria was “such a brave, kind-hearted and a beautiful innocent soul”, and “always put a smile on people’s faces with your wacky ways and just outright madness”.
Mr Thorpe added: “Your other little family down here in Portsmouth will forever miss you.
“We’ll miss you begging to go outside, even in the pouring rain just to have as much fun as possible in the little time we had at weekends.
“You will be greatly missed, you special little angel. A life gone far too early but I hope a life lived well. We all love you dearly. Goodnight darling.”
Teenager in court
Meanwhile, a 15-year-old boy charged with Aria’s murder appeared at Bristol Crown Court on Friday, where he was remanded.
The teenager, who cannot be named because of his age, was arrested in the Somerset village of Worle at 6.19pm on Monday.
He is next due in court on 16 March 2026. Appearing via video link from youth detention accommodation, he spoke only to confirm his name.
Judge Peter Blair KC set a provisional trial date for 15 June during the hearing.
A teenager charged with the murder of nine-year-old Aria Thorpe will stand trial in June next year.
The 15-year-old boy, who cannot be named because of his age, appeared at Bristol Crown Court on Friday.
The defendant, who appeared via video link from youth detention accommodation, spoke only to confirm his name.
During a brief hearing, Judge Peter Blair KC, the Recorder of Bristol, set a provisional trial date for 15 June 2026.
The trial is expected to last two weeks.
Avon and Somerset Police were called to Lime Close in Weston-super-Mare just before 6.10pm on Monday, where nine-year-old Aria had suffered a single stab wound.
Flowers laid in memory of the young girl
The boy was arrested in nearby Worle a short time later.
His father was among those attending in the public gallery.
The teenager is next expected to appear in court on 16 March.
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