COVID cases could fall significantly in November even without ‘Plan B’, modelling suggests
Coronavirus cases could fall significantly in November without any restrictions being reintroduced, modelling seen by the government suggests.
Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have predicted that – even without the government’s ‘Plan B’ – COVID cases, hospital admissions and deaths in England will peak in November and start to fall rapidly to much lower levels by Christmas.
According to their modelling, if the government reintroduces restrictions, delaying ‘back-to-normal’ behaviour until the spring, there will still be a drop in the coming weeks, but rates will rise again much faster next year.
Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, told Sky News the modelling suggests the UK is close to ‘endemic equilibrium’.
Modelling shows rates dropping in November. Credit: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
“Once you reach endemic equilibrium, non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing and mask wearing) stop having much of an effect.”
He said the main reason behind this is immunity levels.
“At the moment we’re hearing a lot of voices calling for increased restrictions,” he added.
“But the modellers are predicting incredibly low numbers by mid-December in pretty much all of their scenarios.
“So if they’re suggesting that even if we do nothing cases are going to decline substantially, more restrictions don’t seem to be the appropriate response.”
The LSHTM findings were one of several reports presented to the government’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-MO) last week, who warned that they could be “too optimistic”.
This is because the data they used does not take into account how certain events can change the way people behave – such as Euro 2020 or Christmas.
SPI-MO’s latest report cautions: “Increases in transmission around the time of the Euro 2020 football matches were not visible in the data sources.
“The mid-winter festive period usually sees different mixing behaviour that could have a similar effect to the Euro 2020 football matches.
“If similar were to happen again… it is possible that these modelling results may be too optimistic.”
They also do not take into account the new mutation of the Delta variant – AY4.2 – which scientists say could be 10% more infectious.
Similar modelling done by the University of Warwick uses a “more precautionary behaviour metric” and takes into account other winter pressures such as flu.
But despite the differences, Warwick, like LSHTM, predicts that a delay in ‘normal’ behaviour would see a more gradual decline in hospital admissions than if it stayed as it is.
It also predicts that “later, a combination of waning immunity, behaviour change and seasonality would result in a further wave”.
Warwick said the timing of another winter wave is “highly uncertain” but could peak anywhere between January and May.
SPI-MO advisers say that whatever happens to coronavirus case rates this winter, it is “highly unlikely” hospital admissions will peak as high as they did last winter.
They believe vaccine protection would have to decline significantly for changes in public behaviour to result in a repeat of last year.
The LSHTM also models potential drops in vaccine protection and the uptake of booster vaccines, but these both still point to a drop in rates this winter.
Follow the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker
If COVID immunity offered by vaccines wanes far more than it has so far, modellers predict there will be a much bigger peak next spring.
But Professor Hunter adds that booster vaccines – currently being given to the over-50s, NHS and social care workers and the clinically vulnerable – are proving “a lot more effective than we were expecting”.
A recent study by Pfizer showed that a third dose of its vaccine offers 95.6% protection against symptomatic infection.
“If that’s the case, then possibly there will be an increase in the speeding up of that reduction in rates,” Professor Hunter said.
The government has repeatedly resisted calls to reintroduce mandatory face masks and working from home as part of a Plan B to protect the NHS this winter.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid told Times Radio on Monday: “At the moment… we don’t think the data shows that we need to move to Plan B but that said, it’s really important that we all keep playing our part and that means getting vaccinated, especially if you’re eligible for the booster jab please come forward, and also just being cautious on a daily basis and following the advice.”
A fresh weather warning for snow has been issued for southern England, with cautions for snow and ice already in place across much of the country.
The Met Office’s yellow weather warning for snow covers the southern counties of England from 9am until midnight on Wednesday.
The warning stretches from Kent to Cornwall and up to south London and the Met Office said between two and five centimetres of snow could accumulate fairly widely, with as much as 10cm over higher ground.
Pic: Met Office
This week is expected to see the coldest nights of the year, with temperatures potentially reaching -14C on Wednesday night and -16C on Thursday night, both in the North East of England and Scotland, the Met Office said.
Weather warnings issued on Tuesday for snow and ice covering the Midlands, parts of North Wales, the North West of England, west and northern parts of Scotland as well as Northern Ireland will remain in place until midday on Wednesday.
The forecaster said some roads and railways are likely to be affected and there could be icy patches on untreated roads.
Pics: AP
Meanwhile the Environment Agency has said at least 300 properties have flooded across England since New Year’s Eve. It estimates more than 41,000 properties have been protected.
Heavy rainfall over the New Year caused significant river and surface water flooding across the North West of England and Yorkshire and snowmelt has brought further disruption to parts of England, particularly the Midlands, the agency said.
Read more from Sky News:
Terrifying firestorm rips through home of film stars and billionaires
Homes destroyed – how people are coping with floods
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Man says flooding ‘came out of nowhere’
Floods minister Emma Hardy said: “My sympathies go out to the people, businesses and communities impacted by the recent flooding across the country.
“I want to express my heartfelt thanks for the vital work that the Environment Agency and emergency services are doing to keep people safe. People must continue to follow their advice and sign up for flood warnings.”
Flood warnings
Some 100 flood warnings were in force across England on Wednesday, with people urged to remain vigilant over the coming days.
A danger-to-life warning was issued on Tuesday morning for the River Soar near Barrow upon Soar, Leicestershire, but was later removed.
People living in caravan parks in the area were urged by the Environment Agency to act, with a large-scale evacuation needed to save lives.
Firefighters have rescued dozens of people across Leicestershire since Monday, Leicestershire Fire and Rescue Service said.
Hundreds of schools were closed across the UK, with road and rail links blocked, as Manchester, Bristol and Liverpool John Lennon airports suspended flights because of the conditions.
A six-month-old baby who died after a collision in a multi-storey car park was on a family holiday to Wales.
Sophia Kelemen from Leigh, Manchester, died after the crash in a car park in the coastal town of Tenby, Pembrokeshire, on 2 January.
Sophia’s aunt, Adriana Kelemen, has now launched a fundraiser to help cover funeral costs.
Writing on the page, Ms Kelemen said “never in a million years” did she think she would have to write such a post.
Ms Kelemen said she hoped to “ease a very small part of [her] brother and sister-in-law’s hurt” by raising money to cover part of the funeral costs.
Sophia was taken to hospital after the crash and treated for her injuries but died the following day, police confirmed.
Dyfed-Powys Police said the crash happened on the ground floor of the car park and that a man had been charged in connection with the incident.
Sophia Kelemen. Pic: Adriana Kelemen/GoFundMe
Speaking to the Manchester Evening News, Ms Kelemen described her niece as “smiley and bubbly” and “so advanced for her age”.
Sophia was “playful and energetic” and “the cutest and most adorable girl”, her aunt added.
Read more from Sky News:
Hospital declares critical incident amid rising flu cases
Ex-husband shares tribute to RuPaul’s Drag Race star
A spokesperson for Dyfed-Powys Police said Sophia’s family were being supported by specialist officers.
The force said it was a “tragic incident” and asked the public not to speculate on the circumstances.
Jess Phillips has said “nothing is off the table” when dealing with the grooming gangs scandal – including a new national inquiry if victims want one.
The safeguarding minister told Sky’s political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast that she would listen to victims on a new panel that was announced by the government this week.
“Nothing is off the table,” she said.
“And if the victims come forward to me in this victims panel and they say, ‘actually, we think there needs to be a national inquiry into this’, I’ll listen to them.”
Politics latest: Tories told to ‘put up or shut up’
Her comments come days after it emerged she had rejected calls from Oldham Council to hold a government inquiry into grooming gangs in the town, and said the council should commission one instead.
That has led to tech billionaire Elon Musk attacking her and Sir Keir Starmer for not holding a national inquiry and accusing the prime minister of being “complicit” in the abuse.
Professor Alexis Jay finished an eight-year national inquiry into child sexual abuse in 2022 and set out recommendations for the government.
Read more:
What happened in the grooming gangs scandal?
Why the Tories’ attempts to force inquiry won’t work
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Education sec ‘not interested’ in Musk comments
The Conservatives tabled an amendment to the Children’s Safeguarding and Schools Bill on Wednesday to require a statutory inquiry into grooming gangs.
However, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson told Sky News the Tories “don’t care about children” as the amendment could prevent the entire bill from going forward.
She said: “The measures that I’m setting out today and the legislation in many ways go further because it puts a requirement on all councils to have teams working to keep children safe.
“And the bandwagon jumpers that have come along in recent days, they don’t care about children, they don’t care about making sure that we stop this and we take action.
“They had years to do it and they didn’t do it.”
The Conservatives also rejected a call from Oldham Council for a government inquiry in 2022.
You can listen to Beth’s full interview with Jess Phillips in a special episode of Electoral Dysfunction released on Thursday.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway