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Rishi Sunak has claimed his budget will deliver a stronger economy “fit for a new age of optimism”.

In comments released by the Treasury ahead of the chancellor’s address to MPs in the Commons on Wednesday, Mr Sunak said the budget will commence the “work of preparing for a new economy post-COVID”.

“An economy of higher wages, higher skills, and rising productivity. Of strong public services, vibrant communities and safer streets,” he said.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak works on his Budget speech. Pic: HM Treasury/Flickr
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Critics have said the wage increases announced by the chancellor will not be enough amid a cost of living crisis

“An economy fit for a new age of optimism. That is the stronger economy of the future.”

Much of the contents of the chancellor’s economic set piece are already known, following a raft of announcements in recent days.

Extra funding for the NHS, more money for local transport, an end to the public sector pay freeze and rises in the national living wage and minimum wage have all been pre-trailed.

Other measures announced already include:

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• £1.4bn to encourage foreign investment into UK businesses and attract overseas talent
• £700m to be spent mainly on the new post-Brexit borders and immigration system, as well as a new maritime patrol fleet
• £435m for victims services, crime prevention and the Crown Prosecution Service
• £560m for adult maths coaching to help increase numeracy
• A six-month extension to the COVID recovery loan scheme to June 2022

The announcements on pay, which will take effect in April, are the most high-profile so far.

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Sky’s Ed Conway previews the budget

However, critics have pointed out that the end of the Universal Credit uplift, an upcoming 1.25% rise in National Insurance and continuing cost of living pressures, including rising petrol prices and soaring energy bills, will mean that many of those who see their salaries bumped up will not be much better off in real terms, if at all.

Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the chancellor has to “create a more resilient economy and take the pressure off working people” amid continuing cost of living pressures.

Setting out the party’s approach, she continued: “Labour would grow our economy, with our plan to buy, make and sell more in Britain, and a Climate Investment Pledge to create the jobs of the future.

“With costs growing and inflation rising, Labour would ease the burden on households, cutting VAT on domestic energy bills immediately for six months.

“And we would not raise taxes on working people and British businesses, while online giants get away without paying their fair share.”

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Minister: Chancellor is ‘keen to give a pay rise’

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats said Mr Sunak was treating education as an “afterthought”.

“Rishi Sunak is setting up our children to fail, while hammering families with tax hikes and a cost of living crisis,” party leader Sir Ed Davey said.

“We need an emergency children’s budget, with £15bn for schools catch-up funding as recommended by the government’s own adviser.

“Parents and children who have sacrificed so much during the pandemic deserve a fair deal.

“Instead this budget looks set to treat education and our children’s future as an afterthought.

“You can’t build a strong economy without investing in younger generations and allowing them to fulfil their potential.”

Ian Blackford, Westminster leader of the SNP, warned the chancellor he must not “short-change” Scotland, calling for a “multi-billion-pound Brexit Recovery Fund – to provide Scotland with compensation and to ensure proper financial support for struggling businesses and industries.”

“With Brexit playing a major role in the ongoing severe staffing shortages, rotting food in the fields, empty supermarket shelves, plunge in UK exports, and rising cost of goods and services, the chancellor must wake up and smell the coffee before that also ends up running out in our stores,” he said.

The series of pre-announcements ahead of the budget has angered Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle, who allowed a second urgent question in as many days on Tuesday to compel ministers to appear before MPs to answer questions on the budget.

“I was disappointed to see more stories in the media today with apparently very well-briefed information about what will be in tomorrow’s budget,” the speaker told the Commons.

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Speaker angry at government ignoring Commons

Accusing ministers of treating parliament in a “discourteous manner”, Sir Lindsay added: “This house will not be taken for granted, it’s not right for everybody to be briefed, it’s not more important to go on the news in the morning, it’s more important to come here.

“Let us get the message across that these elected members represent this United Kingdom. It is not done through Sky TV.”

Follow budget coverage live on Sky News on Wednesday with the chancellor’s announcement from 12.30pm

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US and EU agree trade deal, says Donald Trump

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US and EU agree trade deal, says Donald Trump

The United States and European Union have agreed a trade deal, says Donald Trump.

The announcement was made as the US president met European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen at one of his golf resorts in Scotland.

Speaking after talks in Turnberry, Mr Trump said the EU deal was the “biggest deal ever made” and it will be “great for cars”.

The US will impose 15% tariffs on EU goods into America, after Mr Trump had threatened a 30% levy.

He said there will be an EU investment of $600bn in the US, the bloc will buy $750bn in US energy and will also purchase US military equipment.

Mr Trump had earlier said the main sticking point was “fairness”, citing barriers to US exports of cars and agriculture.

He went into the talks demanding fairer trade with the 27-member EU and threatening steep tariffs to achieve that, while insisting the US will not go below 15% import taxes.

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For months, Mr Trump has threatened most of the world with large tariffs in the hope of shrinking major US trade deficits with many key trading partners, including the EU.

Ms von der Leyen said the agreement would include 15% tariffs across the board, saying it would help rebalance trade between the two large trading partners.

In case there was no deal and the US had imposed 30% tariffs from 1 August, the EU has prepared counter-tariffs on €93bn (£81bn) of US goods.

Ahead of their meeting on Sunday, Ms von der Leyen described Mr Trump as a “tough negotiator and dealmaker”.

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Bread producers Hovis and Kingsmill close in on historic merger

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Bread producers Hovis and Kingsmill close in on historic merger

The owners of Hovis and Kingsmill are closing in on a definitive agreement to merge two of Britain’s most famous grocery brands following months of talks.

Sky News has learnt Associated British Foods (ABF), the London-listed company which owns Kingsmill’s immediate parent, Allied Bakeries, has proposed paying roughly £75m to acquire Hovis from its long-term private equity backers.

Banking sources said a deal could be formally agreed to combine the businesses as early as the end of next week, although they cautioned the complexity of the transaction meant the timing could yet slip.

Confirmation of a tie-up would come nearly three months after Sky News revealed ABF and Endless – Hovis’s owner since 2020 – were in discussions.

Industry sources have estimated that a combined group could benefit from up to £50m of annual cost savings from a merger.

ABF has also been exploring options for the future of Allied Bakeries separate from its talks with Hovis in the event a deal could not be agreed or is prevented from completing by competition regulators.

If it does go ahead, the merger will unite two historic bread producers under common ownership, with Allied Bakeries having been founded in 1935 by Willard Garfield Weston, part of the family which continues to control ABF.

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Hovis traces its history back even further, having been created in 1890 when Herbert Grime scooped a £25 prize for coming up with the name Hovis, which was derived from the Latin ‘Hominis Vis’ – meaning “strength of man”.

Persistent inflation, competition from speciality bread producers and shifting consumer habits towards lower-carb diets have combined to impair breadmakers’ financial health in recent decades, however.

In accounts filed at Companies House earlier this month, Hovis said it had “achieved positive financial progress despite continued tough trading conditions”.

The company reported sales of £439.6m in the 52 weeks to 28 September last year, down from £477.6m in the 53 weeks to 30 September 2023.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell from £20.9m to £18.7m, which Hovis said was the result of the revenue decline and higher distribution costs.

“Overall bread share remained stable, despite significant price inflation and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, demonstrating the resilience of the Hovis brand and its iconic status as one of Britain’s most loved food brands,” the accounts said.

This week, the trade publication The Grocer reported that Britain’s big four supermarkets, including Asda and Sainsbury’s, had delisted a number of Hovis-branded products.

The publication quoted a Hovis spokeswoman as saying the company was “aware of some adjustments to Hovis product lines in certain stores”.

“We remain fully committed to working collaboratively with our retail partners to grow our mutual businesses.”

The overall UK bakery market is estimated to be worth about £5bn in annual sales, with the equivalent of 11m loaves being sold each day.

Critical to the prospects of a merger of Allied Bakeries, which also owns the Sunblest and Allinson’s bread brands, and Hovis taking place will be the view of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) at a time when economic regulators are under intense pressure from the government to support growth.

Warburtons, the family-owned business which is the largest bakery group in Britain, is estimated to have a 34% share of the branded wrapped sliced bread sector, with Hovis on 24% and Allied on 17%, according to industry insiders.

A merger of Hovis and Kingsmill would give the combined group the largest share of that segment of the market, although one source said Warburtons’ overall turnover would remain higher because of the breadth of its product range.

Responding to Sky News’ report in May of the talks, ABF said: “Allied Bakeries continues to face a very challenging market.

“We are evaluating strategic options for Allied Bakeries against this backdrop and we remain committed to increasing long-term shareholder value.”

In a separate presentation to analysts, ABF – which is also in the process of closing its Vivergo bioethanol plant in Hull after pleading for government support – described the losses at Allied, which also owns own-label bread manufacturer Speedibake, as unsustainable.

The company does not disclose details of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance.

Prior to its ownership by Endless, Hovis was owned by Mr Kipling-maker Premier Foods and the Gores family.

At the time of the most recent takeover, High Wycombe-based Hovis employed about 2,700 people and operated eight bakery sites, as well as its own flour mill.

Hovis’s current chief executive, Jon Jenkins, is a former boss of Allied Milling and Baking.

This weekend, ABF declined to comment, while Endless could not be reached for comment.

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

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Good economic news as sunny weather boosted retail sales

Retail sales grew in June as warm weather boosted spending and day trips, official figures show.

Spending on goods such as food, clothes and household items rose 0.9%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It’s a bounce back from the 2.8% dip in May, but last month’s figure was below economists’ forecast 1.2% uplift as consumers dealt with higher prices from increased inflation.

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Also weighing on spending was reduced consumer confidence amid talk of higher taxes, according to a closely watched indicator from market research firm GfK.

Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.

Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.

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What does ‘inflation is rising’ mean?

Where have people been shopping?

June’s retail sales rise came as people bought more in supermarkets, and retailers said drinks sales were up.

While hot and sunny weather boosted some brick-and-mortar shops, the heat led some to head online.

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Non-store retailers, which include mainly online shops, but also market stalls, had sold the most in more than three years.

Not since February 2022 had sales been so high as the Met Office said England had its warmest ever June, and the second warmest for the UK as a whole.

The June increases suggest that the May drop was a bump in the road. When looked at as a whole, the first six months of the year saw retail sales up 1.7%.

Filling up the car for day trips to take advantage of the sun played an important role in the retail sales growth.

When fuel is excluded, the rise was smaller, just 0.6%.

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Despite lower consumer sentiment and more expensive goods, consumers are benefitting from rising wages and are cutting back on savings.

The ONS lifestyle survey – backed up by hard data like the Bank of England’s money and credit figures – shows that households have rebuilt their rainy day savings and are cutting back on the amount of money they squirrel away each month.

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