Do the Astros or the Braves have the edge? Your complete World Series guide
Here we go, the Houston Astros versus the Atlanta Braves for World Series glory. While this matchup would have been a reasonable prediction back in spring training, it was an unlikely scenario at the trade deadline on July 30, when the Braves had a 2% chance to represent the National League and superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. had been lost for the season with a torn ACL.
The Astros are in the World Series thanks to an offense that has scored 67 runs in 10 playoff games, with six of their seven wins coming by at least five runs. Forty-five of those 67 runs have come with two outs, a testament to a lineup that had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors in the regular season. The Braves are here after knocking off the powerful defending champion Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Their 88 wins were the fewest of the 10 playoff teams — not including 2020, this is the first World Series without at least one 100-win team since 2015 (and the Rays and Dodgers were both on a 100-win pace last season) — but Atlanta has been a roll since early August.
Here’s your guide to the 2021 World Series, which starts Tuesday at Minute Maid Field in Houston:
What the Astros have on the line: Can a villain atone for previous sins? It happens in the movies, but this is baseball. It will take a long time before the Astros are viewed as anything but the sport’s outlaws, so instead of redemption they’ll seek history. After reaching their fifth straight league championship series — just the third franchise to do that — they now appear in their third World Series in five seasons. Along the way, they had seasons of 101, 103 and 107 wins. With a second championship in this run, one without an asterisk, they will cement a legacy as one of the best teams of all time. Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel are the core four who have been there all along. Altuve has won an MVP award, Altuve and Gurriel have won batting titles, Bregman has finished second in the MVP voting. With Correa heading into free agency, these could be their final games together — a final opportunity to secure their place as one of the greatest infields ever.
What the Braves have on the line: The opportunity to erase years of playoff failure. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz helped win the only World Series title in the franchise’s Atlanta era in 1995. The Braves have made 16 trips to the postseason since then without a championship. That includes 12 appearances since their last World Series berth in 1999. This is hardly the best Atlanta team in that stretch, but it has been clicking the past two-plus months. Remember, the Braves didn’t have a winning record until Aug. 6. Since then, including the playoffs, they’re 40-21, becoming just the fourth team to reach the World Series despite having a losing record at the All-Star break (joining the 1991 Braves, 1973 Mets and 1964 Cardinals). The 88 wins aren’t an impressive season total, but they dispatched the 95-win Brewers and 106-win Dodgers to get here.
What Dusty Baker has on the line: The Hall of Fame. The 72-year-old Astros manager is back in the World Series for the first time since his 2002 Giants lost to the Angels in seven games. It’s the longest span between World Series appearances since Bucky Harris was the player-manager for the Washington Senators in 1925 and then the manager for the Yankees in 1947. Baker is 12th in regular-season wins. The 11 managers ahead of him have all won a World Series and all except Bruce Bochy are in the Hall of Fame. Dusty’s managerial career has been filled with heartbreaking losses, mostly notably his Game 6 defeats with the Giants in that 2002 World Series and the Cubs in the 2003 NLCS. As the Astros wrapped up the ALCS with a 5-0 win in Game 6, he thought of those games. “Game 6 has been my nemesis in most playoffs and that’s what I was thinking,” Baker said after the victory. “I mean, you got to get past your nemesis. I was afraid of electricity when I was a kid, so now I’m an owner of an energy company. You try to get past things in your life.”
Except the Astros still need four more wins. If they can do it — and for Dusty’s sake, maybe they better do it in five games — Baker should start preparing his Cooperstown speech, a final reward for a remarkable professional baseball adventure that began in 1967. If that day arrives, let’s hope he gives the speech with a toothpick in his mouth while wearing his wristbands to wipe away the tears.
What Brian Snitker has on the line: The 66-year-old Atlanta manager hasn’t lived most of his baseball life in the headlines like Baker, but his story honors all those baseball lifers out there. He has been a member of the Braves organization since 1977. As a player, he reached Triple-A for two games. He began managing in the minors in 1982 and had been a loyal organization member for 40 years when the Braves first named him interim manager in 2016. They kept him in the job after he went 72-90 in his first full season in 2017, and he has since managed the club to four straight NL East titles.
When the Braves made the final out to eliminate the Dodgers, he thought of his wife, Ronnie, and his two kids. “I know that she’s been real emotional through a lot of this, and rightly so,” he said afterward. “She’s the one that drug our kids all over the Southeast and I would leave in February and come home in September and she would hold a job and cheerleading and baseball and all that and it was a lot of that stuff.” He also pointed out that the Snitker family is now guaranteed a World Series trophy: Son Troy is an assistant hitting coach for the Astros.
Neither Baker nor Snitker was hired for his analytics acumen and both hires went against the managerial trend of younger, recently retired players. Both, however, might be described best as baseball people, and were the right person for the job at the right time — Baker to help bring stability to the Astros after the cheating scandal rocked the organization, Snitker to help guide a young team out of a minor rebuilding project and into contention.
Don’t overlook what they’ve done this postseason, however. Both have adapted to the times. Baker has had quick hooks with his starters as needed and understands the importance of relying on a bullpen. Snitker used a bullpen game to win Game 4 of the NLCS, and his decision to hit for starter Ian Anderson in the bottom of the fourth in Game 6 proved to be one of the key moves of the postseason when Ehire Adrianza singled to set the stage for Eddie Rosario’s game-deciding three-run home run.
0:32
Eddie Rosario hits a big three-run home run to right field in the bottom of the fourth inning to give the Braves a 4-1 lead over the Dodgers.
Last call for Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman? You can argue the Astros’ turnaround began when they drafted Correa with the first pick in the 2012 draft. He reached the majors in 2015 and the Astros made the playoffs that season, the first of six postseasons in Correa’s seven seasons with the team. Freeman is the face of the Atlanta franchise, one of the most popular players in the majors. Like Correa, he reached the majors when he was just 20 years old. He has been a five-time All-Star and won the 2020 NL MVP before finally reaching his first World Series.
After all the playoff disappointments through the years, Freeman described beating the Dodgers as “pure joy. It really is. … Usually we’re sitting in our locker, you know, and just like just thinking about the whole season and getting ready for next year, and we actually did it.”
Since Correa reached the majors, the two have been among the best players in the majors, Correa ranking sixth in Baseball-Reference WAR among position players, Freeman ninth.
Both players are set to become free agents after this World Series. It’s hard to imagine Freeman playing for another team given his stature with the Braves and his still high level of production at 32 years old, but any time a star player reaches free agency there is the risk of seeing him leave. Correa, on the other hand, is viewed as likely to leave the Astros — with perhaps the Yankees and Tigers leading the pursuit to sign him.
Relievers, relievers and more relievers: Heading into the World Series, relievers have thrown 54% of postseason innings. For the Astros, it’s been 57%, and for the Braves, 49%. So if you haven’t watched much postseason baseball this year, don’t be surprised to see the churn of relievers starting early in the game.
For Baker, the heavy relief usage was born out of necessity when Astros starters pitched a combined 6.2 innings in the first four games of the ALCS. It was a minor miracle the Astros were able to split those four games before Framber Valdez bounced back with eight dominant innings in Game 5 (the longest stint of any starter this postseason) and Luis Garcia tossed 5.2 scoreless innings in Game 6. Still, with Lance McCullers Jr. likely to miss the World Series after not pitching since leaving Game 4 of the ALDS with forearm discomfort, Baker will have to rely on his bullpen.
The Braves have used just three traditional starters in their playoff run, starting Charlie Morton on short rest in Game 4 against the Brewers and going with a bullpen game against the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS (with Drew Smyly pitching 3.1 innings in relief as the long man).
Some of the key relievers to watch:
A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek and Will Smith, Braves: The three lefties have allowed just two runs in 24.2 innings in the postseason with 35 strikeouts, no home runs and nine hits. They can get righties out as well as lefties and Snitker will use Minter and Matzek for more than three outs (Minter went two innings in Games 4 and 6 against the Dodgers). Matzek has appeared in nine of the Braves’ 10 postseason games and blew away the Dodgers in his two-inning stint in Game 6.
Matzek is a great story. He’s a former first-round pick of the Rockies in 2009, but he developed such a bad case of the yips that he was out of baseball in 2017. He was then released by the White Sox, Mariners and Diamondbacks before the Braves signed him in 2019 and he found the strike zone. Since the All-Star break he has allowed runs in just four of 43 appearances, and he keeps telling Snitker that he wants the ball every game. Minter had to return to Triple-A for a short spell in late July when he was struggling with his control, but he has a 1.37 ERA in 26.1 innings since returning to the majors.
Even Smith struggled early this season, going 1-5 with a 4.74 ERA through June 9. A concern most of the season, the Atlanta bullpen now looks like a strength and the lefties will help the Braves match up against Astros left-handed hitters Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker in a way the Red Sox could not.
“I felt like I’ve let this team down so many different times in the past few years and I let the fans down and I felt like I just went out there and I just wanted to give it all for them,” Minter said after Game 6. “We all have our story and I’ve been through failure and I felt like I wouldn’t be in this spot tonight if I hadn’t gone through that failure. It just made me prepare for this moment and that’s what life is all about. Nothing’s supposed to be easy, it’s not supposed to be given to you and you have to earn it.”
Cristian Javier, Astros: Javier started the year in the Houston rotation, but pitched out of the bullpen since late May. His ability to go multiple innings gives Baker the comfort that he can have a quick hook with his starters. Javier has had three scoreless appearances in the postseason of 2.2, 2 and 3 innings, striking out 13 over those 7.2 innings.
Blake Taylor and Brooks Raley, Astros: Ryan Pressly has been one of the best closers in the majors. Kendall Graveman and Ryne Stanek are the primary setup guys and have combined to allow two runs in 13.2 innings in the postseason. But it could get a little interesting if Baker has to bridge the gap from the starters and Javier to the late-game crew. Taylor and Raley are the two lefties Baker has at his disposal, but neither is on the level of the Braves’ lefties. It will be interesting to see if Baker uses them against the Eddie Rosario/Freeman part of the order to get the matchup advantage or forgoes that and sticks with his righties.
Yordan Alvarez and Eddie Rosario: Speaking of Rosario, he and Alvarez are the hot hitters coming off LCS MVP honors. Rosario had 14 hits against the Dodgers, tying the postseason record for hits in one series with four others players (but they all did it in seven games while Rosario did it in six). Alvarez is hitting .441/.535/.794 in the postseason and went 9-for-13 in the final three games of the ALCS. In fact, he outhit the entire Red Sox lineup over the final two games of the series.
Rosario was one of the outfield pickups Alex Anthopoulos made to help cover for the injured Acuna, along with Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler. Rosario hadn’t hit that well for Cleveland and was actually injured when the Braves acquired him, but including the postseason he has hit .331/.388/.639 with Atlanta. Soler had solidified the leadoff spot in September, but when he missed the first four games of NLCS after testing positive for COVID-19, Rosario took over and crushed it. Given the right-handed nature of the Houston pitching staff — other than Valdez — look for Snitker to keep the Rosario/Freeman one-two punch at the top of the lineup, almost daring Baker to bring in Taylor or Raley. (The Braves will also be able to deploy Soler as the DH in the games in Houston, keeping Joc Pederson in right field. As we saw in the NLCS, Atlanta’s strong bench can be a big bonus.)
Baker will have to make a decision when the series moves to Atlanta for the middle three games. Who plays left field, Brantley or Alvarez? Alvarez did start 39 games there in the regular season and two so far in the postseason, so the way he’s hitting, you have to think he’ll get the starts, even if he is a defensive liability.
How the rotations line up: Hey, starting pitchers are still important! The Atlanta rotation should go as follows:
Game 1: Charlie Morton (six days of rest)
Game 2: Max Fried (four days of rest)
Game 3: Ian Anderson (five days of rest)
Game 4: Bullpen game
Assuming McCullers is out, the Astros might go like this:
Game 1: Framber Valdez (five days of rest)
Game 2: Luis Garcia (four days of rest)
Game 3: Jose Urquidy (10 days of rest)
Game 4: Zack Greinke/bullpen game
Baker has a couple of options. He could go with Urquidy in Game 2 in order to give the rookie Garcia more rest (his second dominant start against the Red Sox came on five days of rest), but Baker might not want two potential Urquidy-Fried matchups given Urquidy pitched poorly in his one postseason start so far (six runs in 1.2 innings). Greinke also didn’t look good against the Red Sox, so Jake Odorizzi or one of the relievers could get the start.
Garcia feels like the key guy here. He apparently made a slight mechanical tweak before his Game 6 start against the Red Sox and his average four-seam fastball velocity was 96.0 mph, up from his season average of 93.3. He threw 26 pitches of 96-plus mph — after reaching 96 just 18 times all season prior to that. Maybe it was the adrenaline of the moment, but if Garcia can bring that velocity — and control — against the Braves, that’s a huge, huge bonus for the Astros.
The favorite: Caesars Sportsbook opened with the Astros as -150 favorites, with the price since dropping to -145 with the Braves listed at +125. Home-field advantage is a small factor, but don’t forget the Astros lost all four games at home to the Nationals in the 2019 World Series.
The Braves did run into some good fortune in the playoffs so far, not having to play the Giants or Dodgers in the division series and then catching a Dodgers team that was already down Max Muncy and Clayton Kershaw before Justin Turner got injured during the series and Max Scherzer missed his Game 6 start. Eddie Rosario had the best week of his life and a shaky bullpen got hot at the right time. This isn’t to knock the Braves for their accomplishment, but the Dodgers were running on fumes by the NLCS.
The Astros have that chip, to prove something to the haters and doubters. “Ever since the news came out, the bad news that we’ve had to deal with about what happened in 2017, I think we’ve all wanted to prove what kind of class of players that we are and team that we are,” Alvarez said after beating the Red Sox. “I wasn’t here with the team in 2017, but I’ve gotten booed just as equal as anybody else. So I think we all have the same mentality that we really want to win a World Series to demonstrate that we are just a great team.”
Does that matter in a seven-game series? Probably not. The Braves want to win, too. Back in the days when the Braves were on TBS, they were the self-proclaimed “America’s Team.” In this series, that is truer than ever.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day was candid in his postgame assessment of the Buckeyes’ 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling on Saturday, acknowledging it was “not a matchup game.”
That was the theme of Week 2, which featured multiple contenders playing FCS opponents or other unranked, lower-level teams. That doesn’t mean there weren’t a few lessons learned.
“Regardless of your opponent, you can see good execution,” Day said. “Whether it’s penalties, assignments, spacing, timing — there’s a crispness to anybody you play.”
Not everyone demonstrated that crispness on Saturday against weaker competition — and it changed the playoff pecking order. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Clemson.) This list is fluid — and it should be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The win against Texas gives the Buckeyes a case for the top spot, as does the eye test, as quarterback Julian Sayin continues to flourish with his accuracy, consistency and minimal mistakes in his first year as a starter. The defense under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia continues to look stifling. Ohio State also benefited this week from Clemson’s struggles against Troy, because it takes some of the shine off LSU’s season-opening road win against Clemson. While Clemson struggled, Texas reasserted itself. The selection committee members would include those results in their discussions as they determine who had the better Week 1 win. With Clemson dropping out of this week’s top 12, that honor now goes to Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still believe that LSU is the better team and reward it for a season-opening road win. Ohio State manhandled Grambling from the onset, a glorified practice in the Shoe against a SWAC team that trailed 35-0 at the half. The committee would consider that both of Ohio State’s wins were at home.
Need to know: The selection committee isn’t supposed to consider last year’s results, so Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t a part of its deliberations, nor is the Associated Press poll ranking. The group evaluates the teams based on their current résumés, so how Texas fares will eventually impact how much the committee values that season-opening win against the Longhorns.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will again have home-field advantage for another marquee matchup, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes’ win against Notre Dame in the season opener separates them from the teams ranked below. They also showed no signs of a letdown against FCS Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Quarterback Carson Beck completed 22 of his first 24 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Canes also accounted for three touchdowns on the ground — a balanced offense the Wildcats had no answer for. The biggest difference for Miami through two games, though, has been a dominant defense.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still reward LSU for winning on the road, whereas both of Miami’s wins were at home. The Seminoles’ win against Bama will carry weight in the room as long as the Tide keep winning, but the reality is that Miami’s win against Notre Dame looks better — at least through two weeks.
Need to know: With Clemson struggling against Troy and losing to LSU, Miami now has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff (46.5%) and earn a first-round bye as one of the committee’s top four teams (14.6%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes get rival Florida at home later this month, but they have to travel to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles have quickly asserted themselves as a team to take seriously this year.
Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still separating the Tigers from other contenders, but it lost some of its impact after Clemson had an underwhelming defensive performance and its offense was stagnant for a second straight week — this time against Troy. LSU had its own issues offensively against Louisiana Tech, which was able to put pressure on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier throughout the game. LSU struggled to establish the run and push the ball downfield through the bulk of three quarters against Louisiana Tech. While LSU struggled, both Ohio State and Miami left no doubt they were the better team.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee does consider factors such as where the game was played, and of the top three teams, LSU is the only one with a win on the road against what is probably still a CFP Top 25 team.
Need to know: The CFP selection committee this year is using a metric called “record strength” to help determine how a team performed against its schedule. LSU entered Week 2 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, second only to Ohio State.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Kentucky 30-23 for their first SEC win and have a 69.8% chance to beat LSU, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Seminoles are still scoring. FSU racked up 70 points against FCS team East Texas A&M — through three quarters. It finished with a 77-3 victory. This FSU team is doing everything it can to make the selection committee forget the 2024 team that won two games. Florida State’s Week 1 win against Alabama was one of the most notable nationally and will continue to help the Noles if the Tide finish as a Top 25 CFP team. The committee also compares common opponents, and although beating East Texas A&M will be a moot point on Selection Day, it’s at least interesting to note that fellow ACC team SMU set the bar in Week 1 when it beat the Lions 42-13.
Why they could be lower: The committee tracks wins against FCS opponents and rewards teams that played tougher opponents. Beating the now 0-2 Lions from the Southland Conference — even with a sledgehammer — isn’t going to earn the Seminoles any bonus points in the room.
Need to know: If the Seminoles can win the unofficial state title by beating rivals Miami and Florida, they could be competing for one of the top four spots and an at-large bid, assuming they finish with one loss or better. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives FSU less than a 50% chance to beat each in-state rival.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win. If that’s FSU’s only regular-season loss, though, the two could meet again in the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State — they led 41-3 at the half — giving them a win against a struggling Big 12 program. The selection committee would view this as a better win than the lopsided beatdown the Ducks handed FCS opponent Montana State in Week 1. The committee respects sheer dominance, though, as evidenced by last year’s evaluation of Indiana, and for the second straight week, Oregon scored at least 59 points.
Why they could be lower: Both of the Ducks’ wins have come against significantly weaker opponents, and both were at home.
Need to know: Oregon won’t play a ranked opponent until it travels to Penn State later this month, and if the Ducks don’t win that game, their best chances to impress the selection committee against CFP Top 25 opponents during the regular season will likely be against Indiana and USC.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 67.7% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule that they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: Penn State shut out FIU and played a clean game with no penalties or turnovers — the first time the program has done that since Oct. 25, 2008, at Ohio State — but every team ranked above the Nittany Lions here has a better win on its résumé.
Why they could be lower: There are still some questions about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions converted just 3 of 12 third downs and were 2-of-4 on fourth down. They also had a slow start — 10-0 halftime lead — and the pass protection from the offensive line was shaky at times.
Need to know: If Penn State goes 0-2 against Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions might have only one win against a CFP Top 25 opponent (Indiana). That’s a scenario where a weak nonconference lineup (Nevada, FIU and Villanova) could haunt them.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols have scored at least 45 points in back-to-back games. They have not missed a step without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The season-opening win against Syracuse was respectable, but the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2, so the jury is still out on the true value of that nonconference win. It’s still better, though, than what some other contenders are lining up and knocking down. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, when the Vols hammered FCS opponent East Tennessee State.
Why they could be higher: There could be a debate between the Vols and Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are the only team ranked above Tennessee without a Power 4 win. Tennessee’s win against a Southern Conference team won’t impress the committee, but unlike Penn State, the Vols have been consistently dominant on offense.
Need to know: Tennessee has the eighth-best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor (51%).
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been more productive than the Bulldogs’ so far, but ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 60% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are right where they’re supposed to be — undefeated heading into Tennessee — but it hasn’t always been pretty. Georgia closed as 46.5-point favorites against Austin Peay and was clinging to an 11-point halftime lead, its narrowest against a non-FBS opponent since 2016 against Nicholls State. Wins against Marshall and Austin Peay wouldn’t stack up well in the selection committee meeting room against some of the wins earned by the teams ranked above the Bulldogs.
Why they could be lower: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t have a single passing touchdown against Austin Peay. He didn’t need to with the Bulldogs’ four rushing touchdowns, but the Dawgs were also stuffed to end the first half after a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (79.7%) and a first-round bye (50.7%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. If Arch Manning continues to improve and can find ways to execute the explosive plays he had on Saturday against SEC competition, the Longhorns will again be one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC.
Why they could be here: Arch Manning and the Longhorns got what they needed — a convincing win against an overmatched opponent and a shot of confidence. But a lopsided win against now 0-2 San Jose State isn’t going to give Texas the boost it needs in the selection committee meeting room. The Longhorns won’t have another opportunity against a ranked opponent until their SEC opener on Oct. 4 at Florida — if the Gators are still a Top 25 team after losing at home to South Florida. The offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, though, is something committee members would notice and continue to track. After a slow start, the Longhorns scored three touchdowns in three minutes and 12 seconds. Manning had four touchdowns on 10 completions at one point in the first half.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to see the committee putting Texas lower during a week in which other contenders also played lower-caliber opponents.
Need to know: If Texas doesn’t lock up a spot in the CFP as the SEC champ, it should still have a strong enough résumé as a two-loss team to earn an at-large bid. Where it gets a little tricky is with a third loss, and that’s where not having a nonconference win against a Power 4 opponent would enter the committee’s discussion. ESPN’s FPI, though, projects Texas to finish as a two-loss team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. This could be a preview of the SEC championship game (again). ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 54% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Irish were idle following their 27-24 season-opening loss at Miami, and the selection committee doesn’t typically move teams that don’t play — unless it’s a result of shuffling around them. The loss to the Canes didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the top 10 because it was close and on the road to a ranked team capable of winning the ACC.
Why they could be lower: Simply because other teams have won two games.
Need to know: How Notre Dame’s opponents fare is critical to the selection process, and it helped the Irish (albeit slightly for now) that Boise State rebounded from its season-opening loss to South Florida. The better the Broncos play, the more respect Notre Dame will earn in the committee meeting room if it beats them on Oct. 4.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame will win out and has the second-best chance to do so behind Ohio State. The rivalry game against the Trojans, though, is the closest thing remaining to a coin toss. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 56.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: For the second straight week, the Illini scored at least 45 points, and this time they did it on the road against a respectable Duke team that won nine games last year. It was a convincing nonconference win on the same night South Carolina struggled to get its offense going early at home against South Carolina State. Iowa State garnered some consideration for this spot after its rivalry win against Iowa, but it didn’t help the Cyclones that Kansas State lost to Army (which also lost to Tarleton State). The selection committee considers opponents’ opponents. The Illini’s win wasn’t flawless, but they’re a veteran team that was able to capitalize on Duke’s mistakes on a night when other contenders either beat up on weaker teams or struggled against them.
Why they could be lower: Illinois led by just one at halftime and was aided by five Duke turnovers. South Carolina has a similar nonconference win against an ACC team, as it opened with a win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies also lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Need to know: Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Oregon or Penn State during the regular season. That doesn’t mean the schedule is easy, but it’s manageable enough to earn an at-large spot if Illinois looks the part of a playoff team and doesn’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 81.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: A nonconference win against a ranked Big Ten opponent will earn respect in the selection committee meeting room. It also came on a day when Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State, one of the SEC’s lower-tier teams, and Florida lost to South Florida at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense got enough pressure on Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to disrupt the Wolverines’ passing game. Sooners quarterback John Mateer accounted for two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown but wasn’t flawless.
Why they could be lower: The Sooners got an upgrade in Mateer, but he can’t do everything. The dual-threat quarterback led the team in passing and rushing, but Oklahoma will need more from its ground game against the SEC schedule.
Need to know: This head-to-head result could come into play later if the Sooners and Michigan are competing for an at-large spot. It’s a tiebreaker in the committee meeting room, and as long as their records are the same, OU will have the edge on Michigan. If Oklahoma is going to stay in the playoff race, though, it has to move up in the ranking, because right now it would be bumped out to make room for the Big 12 champ or the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 USF/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 LSU
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
-
Kyle Bonagura
Close
Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
-
Mark Schlabach
Close
Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While Week 2 of the college football season did not offer the blockbuster matchups we saw in Week 1, it nonetheless packed a significant punch.
The biggest blows were delivered by South Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon, which scored significant wins that boosted their standing in the College Football Playoff pecking order. But there were plenty of other results — some upsets, some near-misses and some less-than-stellar victories — that impacted the overall bowl picture.
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas
Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: Welcome to the party, South Florida. After dominating Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls backed that up by shocking Florida 18-16. That’s two wins against ranked opponents to start the season, and while the jury remains out on how good Boise State and Florida actually are, no other Group of 5 team can claim as good a start. And for that reason, USF earns the No. 5 projected-champion spot this week.
The other big move this week is Oklahoma, which jumped into picture with a strong showing against Michigan. The John Mateer pickup has worked out as designed so far, and with Temple, Auburn and Kent State up next on the schedule, the expectation here is that the Sooners will take a 5-0 record into the Red River Rivalry game with Texas on Oct. 11.
Schlabach: Most of the top CFP contenders beat up on lesser opponents this week, but there was some shakeup in my top 12 because of a couple of surprising results. I dropped Clemson and Utah for Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy 27-16 at home (the Trojans led 16-0 late in the second quarter), which was probably a result of a hangover from a season-opening loss to LSU.
Utah is still one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I thought it was appropriate to reward the Cyclones for their 16-13 victory over Iowa on Saturday. Likewise for Oklahoma, which was impressive in its 24-13 win over Michigan at home. With a stingy defense and Mateer running the offense, the Sooners could be a serious CFP player this season.
South Florida also gets my Group of 5 conference champion pick after it stunned Florida in the Swamp. If USF can somehow make it three in a row at No. 5 Miami next week, it would be in the driver’s seat for a CFP bid.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just beat Oklahoma State — the Ducks demoralized the Cowboys. No living person was around the last time Oklahoma State lost by as many points, underscoring how lopsided the 69-3 win was. A quarterfinal matchup between the Ducks and Texas would be appointment viewing, but there are really no bad possibilities for this round — at least at this point in the season. This is another benefit of the change to not grant the byes to the top four conference champions. It ensures better matchups in the quarters.
Schlabach: The top six teams in my bracket remain unchanged, although I did shuffle the order after Georgia looked sloppy in its 28-6 victory against FCS program Austin Peay at home. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles and couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on three straight plays at the end of the first half. It wasn’t the kind of performance Georgia coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee.
I dropped the Bulldogs from No. 4 to No. 6 in the seedings, behind No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks had one of the most impressive performances of the week with their 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State. Oregon piled up 631 yards of offense and returned two interceptions for touchdowns, handing Mike Gundy the worst loss in his 20-year tenure at his alma mater.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: As the SEC and Big Ten arms race continues, just imagine the bragging rights that will come when one of the conferences sends two teams to the championship game for the first time in the expanded playoff era. Both leagues have a chance to achieve that this year, but right now — even though it’s way too early in the season to have a real sense of anything — the Big Ten looks like it has better odds. My current projection has Ohio State and Oregon playing for it all, a repeat of last year’s quarterfinal win by the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Schlabach: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon rolled this week, while LSU looked a little lethargic in its 23-7 win against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers might have still been celebrating their 17-10 win at Clemson in Week 1. They’re going to have to be more consistent if they’re going to be a legitimate CFP title contender.
Like Kyle, I am projecting a rematch of last season’s Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl, but I have them meeting in the semifinals, with the Buckeyes again prevailing.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment11 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024