Attacks by Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) in Afghanistan have become more deadly since the withdrawal of NATO forces, with at least 346 civilians killed by the group since late August.
The insurgents carried out bombings in areas where previously they had little presence. A security expert told Sky News this could be a sign of the group’s growing strength.
Earlier this week, US Pentagon officials suggested ISIS-K intended to carry out attacks against the West and could have the ability to do so within six months.
The group is an affiliate of Islamic State based in South and Central Asia and are ideologically opposed to the Taliban’s nationalist view of Afghanistan, instead seeking to establish an Islamic State across the region.
During and after the US withdrawal, Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) have carried out a suspected 21 attacks in Afghanistan.
The deadliest of these was on 26 August when a suicide bomb at Kabul’s main airport killed 170 civilians and 13 US marines.
Since then, there have been several ISIS-K attacks across Afghanistan, including seven between 18 September – 6 October that killed 18 people.
On 8 October an ISIS-K suicide bomber targeted a Hazara mosque in the northern city of Kunduz, killing at least 43 people.
The picture below shows the damage caused by the bomb inside the mosque.
Shortly after, between 8-12 October, five attacks in four days around Jalalabad, an ISIS-K stronghold, targeted both the Taliban and civil society activists.
A few days later on 15 October, CCTV captured two men attacking a Shia mosque in Kandahar, in the south of the country.
At least 47 people were killed in the suicide attack carried out when prayers were underway in the courtyard of the mosque.
The footage shows the attackers entering the mosque and detonating a device.
At least five further attacks have occurred since the 15 October mosque attack in Kandahar, meaning around 408 people have been killed by ISIS-K in Afghanistan since August 26, including 346 civilians.
This level of ISIS-K attacks is not unprecedented. In 2018 they were responsible for more deaths globally than all but three other terrorist groups that year. Operations by the Afghan government and NATO forces helped reduce the threat throughout 2019 and 2020.
But now the number of attacks is rising again, with civilian casualties in October 2021 alone higher than in the first nine months of 2020.
Many of these attacks have taken place in the east of the country in Nangarhar province, where ISIS-K has a strong presence.
The Taliban has retaliated, with reports of people being dragged from their homes and killed in Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar, for allegedly being ISIS-K members or supporters.
The worsening situation is only exacerbating the existing humanitarian crisis within Afghanistan. The UN has warned that without urgent humanitarian relief the country is on a “countdown to catastrophe”.
It already has one of the largest populations internationally facing acute hunger and it is estimated that up to a million children are at risk of starvation.
Who are ISIS-K?
They were formed in 2015 by disaffected members of the Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, and Uzbek Islamists and have a “cadre of a few thousand” fighters according to the US Department of Defence.
They want to establish an Islamic caliphate across the region and have targeted ethnic minorities such as Hazara Muslims as well as civil society activists, aid agencies, and the former Afghan government.
Yet many of their actions have been against the Taliban, with 11 of 20 of their fatal attacks carried out in Afghanistan since NATO’s withdrawal being aimed at the new governing group.
What has changed since the withdrawal?
The flurry of attacks highlight the challenge facing the Taliban, who are now expected to provide security across the country despite lacking the manpower, skills, and finance of the previous Afghan government.
Dr Antionio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute, said: “ISIS-K’s main enemy has always been the Taliban – there were relatively few incidents between them and the Americans previously.
“What’s different now is the spread of their activity across Afghanistan – Charikar, Kunduz, and Kandahar – these are places ISIS-K didn’t have overt activity before.
“The Islamic State sees the Taliban as being in a weak position right now as they are stretched very thin financially and militarily. Their manpower is taken up controlling the cities, so ISIS-K see now as the right time to strike.”
This week, a US Department of Defence official said that ISIS-K also intends to attack Western countries but that they don’t currently have the means to do so.
Analysis by Deborah Haynes, Security and Defence Editor
The big fear among western security chiefs is that Afghanistan again becomes a haven for terrorist groups to launch attacks against the United States, the UK and other allies.
Al-Qaeda was allowed to plan and direct the 2001 terror attacks on the United States from the country under the previous Taliban regime.
It prompted the US-led invasion to destroy the group’s training camps and hunt down and kill or capture its leaders.
But 20 years on, al-Qaeda militants are regrouping and still enjoy close links with the Taliban. At the same time, a new threat in the form of the Islamic State offshoot Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) has taken root.
Unlike al-Qaeda, ISIS-K is an enemy of the Taliban. Taliban leaders will also know that if the group is able to conduct attacks on the West from their soil they will face the possibility of US-led airstrikes and possibly even special forces raids inside Afghanistan once more.
It is not just the US that will be monitoring developments with ISIS-K closely.
For the threat to be controlled, the support of other external powers will likely be needed. According to Dr Guistozzi: “The Taliban can only consolidate with support of the regional powers, notably China and Russia. Both of these countries are against the Islamic State – ISIS-K fear Russia in particular and their ruthless airstrikes, like they carried out in Syria.”
Reporting: Jack Taylor and Kieran Devine
Maps and Digital Production: Ganesh Rao
Satellite imagery: Google Earth Data: The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
A Ukrainian farmer-turned-soldier in the Donbas has a message for Donald Trump as the US president attempts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.
Anatolii, 59, said: “If someone took a piece of his territory, what would he say to that? The same goes for us.”
He has been fighting ever since, but will have the option to quit next year once he turns 60.
Image: Anatolii and a colleague
Unable to wear body armour anymore because of its weight, Anatolii now operates further back from the frontline in a small workshop on the outskirts of the city of Kramatorsk where he helps to fix and improve the performance of drones – a crucial weapon on the battlefield.
“I want this war to finally end,” he said.“I want to go home, to my family, to my land.”
But not at any price.
More on Ukraine
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He and other soldiers in 107 Brigade of Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Force view Mr Trump’s efforts to negotiate a peace agreement with suspicion.
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1:25
Peace deal: Russia ‘in no mood to compromise’.
An initial proposal envisaged the Ukrainian government giving up Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions that make up the Donbas, to Russia.
This includes large swathes of land that are still under Ukraine’s control, and that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives fighting to defend.
“I feel negative about it,” Anatolii said, referring to the proposal.
“So many people already fell for this land … How can we give away our land? It would be like someone comes to my house and says: ‘Give me a piece of your home.'”
However, he added: “I understand, we have nothing to take it back with. Maybe through some political means…
“I do not want more people to fall, more people to die. I want politicians to somehow come to terms.”
A short drive away from the workshop is a hidden bomb factory where other soldiers from the same unit are focused on a different kind of war effort.
Surrounded by 3D printed gadgets, metal ball bearings and plastic explosives, they make improvised bombs, including anti-personnel mines and devices that can be fitted onto one-way attack drones and exploded onto targets.
Asked whether he felt tired, he said: “We are always tired, we have no motivation as such, but there is the understanding that the enemy will keep coming as long as we do not stop him. If we stop fighting, our children and grandchildren will fight. That keeps us going.”
Vadym is also against simply handing over Ukrainian land to Russia.
“If we now give away borders, give away Donbas, then what?” he said.
“Any country can come to any other country and say: This is our land. Let’s coordinate, do business, and keep living as before. That is not normal in my view.”
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0:47
The Ukrainian president says ‘everyone must be on this side of peace’
The city of Kramatorsk stands testament to Ukraine’s will to fight, remaining firmly in Ukrainian hands, though Russia’s war is inching closer.
Nets stretched like a tunnel line a main road leading into the city to protect vehicles from the threat of small, killer drones.
Coils of barbed wire are also strung across fields around the outskirts of Kramatorsk along with other fortifications such as mounds of dirt and triangular lumps of concrete.
Many civilians have remained here as well as the nearby city of Slovyansk, even as other landmark sites such as Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka have fallen.
Yet the toll of living in a warzone is clear.
Stallholders swept away rubble and broken glass on Sunday after a Russian missile smashed into a central market in Kramatorsk on Saturday night.
Some, like Ella, 60, even chose to reopen despite the carnage.
“It’s frightening. We need to earn a living. I have my mother, I need to look after her, help my children. So we do what we have to do,” she said.
Her adult children live in Kyiv and want her to leave, but Kramatorsk is her home.
“We’ve been living like this for four years now. We’re so used to it. A drone flies overhead and we keep working,” she said.
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1:38
Is the UK prepared to fight a war?
Asked how she felt about what the war had done to her city, Ella’s voice wobbled and she wiped tears from her eyes.
“We keep it all inside, but it still hurts. It’s frightening and painful. I just want things as they used to be. We don’t want anything here to change,” she said.
As for what she would do if a future peace deal forced Ukraine to surrender the area, Ella said: “That’s a hard question … I wouldn’t stay. I’d leave.”
Production by security and defence producer Katy Scholes, Ukraine producer Azad Safarov, camera operator Mostyn Pryce
This community in Sri Lanka’s Kandy District is a mass of mud and loss.
The narrow, filthy streets in Gampola are filled with broken furniture, sodden toys and soiled mattresses. A torrent of floodwater ripped through this neighbourhood and many people had no time to escape.
Trying to reach their now destroyed homes is like wading through treacle – the mud knee-deep.
Many locals say they were not warned about the threat Cyclone Ditwah posed here before it struck last Friday, and weren’t told to evacuate. They say they’ve received very little help since.
Resourceful neighbours were left to try to help rescue survivors. But some had to carry the bodies of the dead, too. Mohamed Fairoos was one of them.
Image: Fairoos Mohamed
“We took five bodies from here,” he says, gesturing to a house full of debris, where mattresses hang drying over the balcony.
“We took nine bodies in total and handed them over to the hospital.” He appears both shocked and exasperated at the lack of support this community received.
Image: The house where Fairoos pulled the bodies from
“When I took the bodies, the police, the navy, no one sent for us.” He tells me he even posted a video online appealing for boats, hoping it might help.
I ask him if he thinks the government has done enough. “No,” he says forcefully. “No one called for us. No one helped us. No one gave us any boats.”
Image: Kumudu Wijekon and her husband Kumar Premachandra
‘Five people were killed here’
Just a few doors down, a group of volunteers have come to clear another home filled with floodwater. “Five people were killed here,” one of them tells me.
Five of them came from one family: a mother, father, their two daughters and son. Kumudu Wijekon tells me she was friends with them and they’d fled here to a friend’s house, hoping to escape the threat.
“There was heavy rain, but they didn’t think there would be flooding. They left their own home to save themselves from landslides. If they had stayed, they would have survived.”
Image: Chamilaka Dilrukshi
‘We don’t have a single rupee’
A short drive away, Chamilaka Dilrukshi is sobbing inside the photography studio she shares with her husband Ananda. They have two children aged four and 11.
Chamilaka is clutching a bag of rice – she says it’s been donated by a friend and it’s all they have to eat.
Image: Ananda Wijebandara and his wife Chamilaka Dilrukshi
Everything in the shop is wrecked – expensive cameras and lighting equipment covered in thick layers of mud, and outside, rows of broken frames and ripped pictures.
They think they’ve lost nearly £2,500 and their home is severely damaged. She weeps as she tells us: “We don’t have a single rupee to start our business again. We spent all of our savings on trying to build our house.”
Like Mohamed, she believed they should have been warned. “We didn’t know anything. If we did, we would have taken our cameras and our computers out. We just didn’t know it was coming.”
Image: The studio was caked in mud
Anger at government’s perceived failings
Sri Lankan president Anura Kumara Dissanayake has declared a state of emergency to deal with the aftermath of the cyclone, and international aid has arrived.
But many people are angry at the government’s perceived failings. It’s been criticised for not taking the warnings from meteorologists seriously two weeks before the cyclone made landfall, as well as for not communicating enough messages in the Tamil language.
It is going to take places like Gampola a long time to rebuild, repair and restore trust. And in a country still recovering from an economic collapse, nothing is guaranteed.
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0:22
Trump’s envoys walk around Moscow
They finally got down to business in the Kremlin more than six hours after arriving in Russia. And by that point, it was already clear that the one thing they had come to Moscow for wasn’t on offer: Russia’s agreement to their latest peace plan.
According to Vladimir Putin, it’s all Europe’s fault. While his guests were having lunch, he was busy accusing Ukraine’s allies of blocking the peace process by imposing demands that are unacceptable to Russia.
The Europeans, of course, would say it’s the other way round.
But where there was hostility to Europe, only hospitality to the Americans – part of Russia’s strategy to distance the US from its NATO allies, and bring them back to Moscow’s side.
Image: Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff shaking hands in August. AP file pic
Putin thinks he’s winning…
Russia wants to return to the 28-point plan that caved in to its demands. And it believes it has the right to because of what’s happening on the battlefield.
It’s no coincidence that on the eve of the US delegation’s visit to Moscow, Russia announced the apparent capture of Pokrovsk, a key strategic target in the Donetsk region.
It was a message designed to assert Russian dominance, and by extension, reinforce its demands rather than dilute them.
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0:47
‘Everyone must be on this side of peace’
…and believes US-Russian interests are aligned
The other reason I think Vladimir Putin doesn’t feel the need to compromise is because he believes Moscow and Washington want the same thing: closer US-Russia relations, which can only come after the war is over.
It’s easy to see why. Time and again in this process, the US has defaulted to a position that favours Moscow. The way these negotiations are being conducted is merely the latest example.
With Kyiv, the Americans force the Ukrainians to come to them – first in Geneva, then Florida.
As for Moscow, it’s the other way around. Witkoff is happy to make the long overnight journey, and then endure the long wait ahead of any audience with Putin.
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