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Attacks by Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) in Afghanistan have become more deadly since the withdrawal of NATO forces, with at least 346 civilians killed by the group since late August.

The insurgents carried out bombings in areas where previously they had little presence. A security expert told Sky News this could be a sign of the group’s growing strength.

Earlier this week, US Pentagon officials suggested ISIS-K intended to carry out attacks against the West and could have the ability to do so within six months.

The group is an affiliate of Islamic State based in South and Central Asia and are ideologically opposed to the Taliban’s nationalist view of Afghanistan, instead seeking to establish an Islamic State across the region.

During and after the US withdrawal, Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) have carried out a suspected 21 attacks in Afghanistan.

The deadliest of these was on 26 August when a suicide bomb at Kabul’s main airport killed 170 civilians and 13 US marines.

Since then, there have been several ISIS-K attacks across Afghanistan, including seven between 18 September – 6 October that killed 18 people.

On 8 October an ISIS-K suicide bomber targeted a Hazara mosque in the northern city of Kunduz, killing at least 43 people.

The picture below shows the damage caused by the bomb inside the mosque.

Shortly after, between 8-12 October, five attacks in four days around Jalalabad, an ISIS-K stronghold, targeted both the Taliban and civil society activists.

A few days later on 15 October, CCTV captured two men attacking a Shia mosque in Kandahar, in the south of the country.

At least 47 people were killed in the suicide attack carried out when prayers were underway in the courtyard of the mosque.

The footage shows the attackers entering the mosque and detonating a device.

At least five further attacks have occurred since the 15 October mosque attack in Kandahar, meaning around 408 people have been killed by ISIS-K in Afghanistan since August 26, including 346 civilians.

This level of ISIS-K attacks is not unprecedented. In 2018 they were responsible for more deaths globally than all but three other terrorist groups that year. Operations by the Afghan government and NATO forces helped reduce the threat throughout 2019 and 2020.

But now the number of attacks is rising again, with civilian casualties in October 2021 alone higher than in the first nine months of 2020.

Many of these attacks have taken place in the east of the country in Nangarhar province, where ISIS-K has a strong presence.

The Taliban has retaliated, with reports of people being dragged from their homes and killed in Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar, for allegedly being ISIS-K members or supporters.

The worsening situation is only exacerbating the existing humanitarian crisis within Afghanistan. The UN has warned that without urgent humanitarian relief the country is on a “countdown to catastrophe”.

It already has one of the largest populations internationally facing acute hunger and it is estimated that up to a million children are at risk of starvation.

Who are ISIS-K?

They were formed in 2015 by disaffected members of the Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban, and Uzbek Islamists and have a “cadre of a few thousand” fighters according to the US Department of Defence.

They want to establish an Islamic caliphate across the region and have targeted ethnic minorities such as Hazara Muslims as well as civil society activists, aid agencies, and the former Afghan government.

Yet many of their actions have been against the Taliban, with 11 of 20 of their fatal attacks carried out in Afghanistan since NATO’s withdrawal being aimed at the new governing group.

What has changed since the withdrawal?

The flurry of attacks highlight the challenge facing the Taliban, who are now expected to provide security across the country despite lacking the manpower, skills, and finance of the previous Afghan government.

Dr Antionio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute, said: “ISIS-K’s main enemy has always been the Taliban – there were relatively few incidents between them and the Americans previously.

“What’s different now is the spread of their activity across Afghanistan – Charikar, Kunduz, and Kandahar – these are places ISIS-K didn’t have overt activity before.

“The Islamic State sees the Taliban as being in a weak position right now as they are stretched very thin financially and militarily. Their manpower is taken up controlling the cities, so ISIS-K see now as the right time to strike.”

This week, a US Department of Defence official said that ISIS-K also intends to attack Western countries but that they don’t currently have the means to do so.

Analysis by Deborah Haynes, Security and Defence Editor

The big fear among western security chiefs is that Afghanistan again becomes a haven for terrorist groups to launch attacks against the United States, the UK and other allies.

Al-Qaeda was allowed to plan and direct the 2001 terror attacks on the United States from the country under the previous Taliban regime.

It prompted the US-led invasion to destroy the group’s training camps and hunt down and kill or capture its leaders.

But 20 years on, al-Qaeda militants are regrouping and still enjoy close links with the Taliban. At the same time, a new threat in the form of the Islamic State offshoot Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) has taken root.

Unlike al-Qaeda, ISIS-K is an enemy of the Taliban. Taliban leaders will also know that if the group is able to conduct attacks on the West from their soil they will face the possibility of US-led airstrikes and possibly even special forces raids inside Afghanistan once more.

It is not just the US that will be monitoring developments with ISIS-K closely.

For the threat to be controlled, the support of other external powers will likely be needed. According to Dr Guistozzi: “The Taliban can only consolidate with support of the regional powers, notably China and Russia. Both of these countries are against the Islamic State – ISIS-K fear Russia in particular and their ruthless airstrikes, like they carried out in Syria.”


Reporting: Jack Taylor and Kieran Devine

Maps and Digital Production: Ganesh Rao

Satellite imagery: Google Earth
Data: The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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It’s not ‘traditional’ wildfire season – so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

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It's not 'traditional' wildfire season - so why have the California fires spread so quickly?

A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?

What caused the California wildfires?

There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.

The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.

But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.

However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.

The main culprit so far is the Santa Ana winds.

Follow live: Malibu residents told to get ready to flee

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LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’

What are Santa Ana winds?

So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.

Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.

It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.

These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.

They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.

The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.

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Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared

The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect

The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.

“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”

What role has climate change played?

California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.

Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.

But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.

But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.

Read more:
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State of emergency as wildfires sweep through LA celebrity suburb

A U.S flag flies as fire engulfs a structure while the Palisades Fire burns during a windstorm on the west side of Los Angeles, California.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.

“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.

“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”

The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.

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LA wildfire site is one of most exclusive suburbs – but it’s in the grips of one of mother nature’s terrifying levellers

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LA wildfire site is one of most exclusive suburbs - but it's in the grips of one of mother nature's terrifying levellers

Pacific Palisades is one of Los Angeles’s most expensive and exclusive suburbs, home to film stars and billionaires.

The broad boulevards are framed by palm trees and gated mansions with swimming pools.

But it’s in the grips of one of mother nature’s terrifying levellers, a firestorm which is ripping through community after community, raging and unremitting.

Follow live: 30,000 told to flee

Firefighters battle the Palisades Fire as it burns multiple structures in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
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Pic: AP

A firefighter jumps over a fence while fighting the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighbourhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
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A firefighter jumps over a fence while fighting the Palisades Fire. Pic: AP

A billowing cloud of black smoke loomed over the main shopping street with its fancy restaurants and designer shops, threatening to destroy what many here consider to be their slice of paradise.

It is a reminder of the destructive power of this sort of weather.

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Martha Kelner reports from Pacific Palisades

Reza, a lifelong resident of Pacific Palisades, was evacuating with what belongings he could fit in his SUV.

“This is surreal, this is unbelievable,” he said.

Reza, a lifelong resident of Pacific Palisades, was evacuating with what belongings he could fit in his SUV.
Image:
Reza, a lifelong resident of Pacific Palisades, was evacuating with what belongings he could fit in his SUV.

“I’ve lived here all my life but this is like nothing I’ve ever seen before. This is the worst of the worst.

“I’ve never seen it with these winds, we just keep praying that the direction changes. But if the direction changes it’s to the detriment of somebody else, that’s the horrible part about it all.”

Firefighters hose down flames as the Palisades Fire destroys a residence in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
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Pic: AP

A residence burns as a firefighter battles the Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Eugene Garcia)
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Pic: AP

A residence burns as the Palisades Fire advances in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Ethan Swope)
Image:
Pic: AP

January is not normally wildfire season, but these are not ordinary circumstances, the blazes being propelled by the strongest winds in southern California for more than a decade, fuelled by drought conditions.

Authorities are warning that the winds will grow stronger overnight, meaning that conditions will likely worsen before they get better.

Police and the fire department went door to door, urging people to evacuate or risk losing their lives.

On the main road out of town, there was gridlock traffic, with some abandoning their cars to flee on foot.

Firefighters battle the advancing Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
Image:
Pic: AP

On Mount Holyoake Avenue, Liz Lerner, an 84-year-old with congestive heart failure, was on her driveway and visibly panicked.

“I don’t drive, and I’m by myself,” she said.

“I have no relatives, I’m 100% alone and I don’t know what to do. My father built this house in 1949, this is my family home and this is the end. I’ve never seen anything like this.”

On Mount Holyoake Avenue, Liz Lerner, an 84 year old with congestive heart failure, was on her driveway and visibly panicked.
Image:
Liz Lerner, an 84 year old with congestive heart failure, was on her driveway and visibly panicked

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Around the corner, another man was hosing down his multi-million dollar home in a bid to save his property from the fire bounding towards it from a nearby canyon.

“I can’t decide whether to evacuate or stay and carry on hosing down my house,” he said.

“It’s hard to know which way the flames are heading.”

A firefighter makes a stand in front of the advancing Palisades Fire in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Etienne Laurent)
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Pic: AP

Other blazes were breaking out across LA with firefighting planes grounded because of winds which are growing stronger by the hour.

More homes, neighbourhoods and lives are under threat from this perfect and petrifying storm.

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Soldiers concerned at time SAS had ‘golden pass to get away with murder’ in Afghanistan, inquiry hears

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Soldiers concerned at time SAS had 'golden pass to get away with murder' in Afghanistan, inquiry hears

Soldiers working within the UK’s special forces discussed concerns that Afghans who posed no threat were being murdered in raids against suspected Taliban insurgents, an inquiry has been told.

One soldier, who was reading operational reports of SAS actions, said in an email in 2011 that they feared that UK special forces seemed “beyond reproach”, with “a golden pass allowing them to get away with murder”.

Another soldier said they were aware of rumours of special forces soldiers using “dropped weapons” – which were munitions allegedly placed next to targets to give the impression they were armed when they were shot.

It was also suggested that the act was known as a “Mr Wolf” – supposedly a reference to the fixer “Winston Wolfe” from the film Pulp Fiction.

The claims come from hundreds of pages of documents detailing evidence given to a public inquiry into alleged war crimes committed by British special forces soldiers in Afghanistan between 2010 and 2013.

The independent inquiry was ordered by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) after the BBC reported claims that SAS soldiers from one squadron had killed 54 people in suspicious circumstances during the war in Afghanistan more than a decade ago.

The inquiry is examining a number of night-time raids carried out by British forces from mid-2010 to mid-2013.

On Wednesday, it released evidence from seven UK special forces (UKSF) witnesses who gave their evidence in secret for national security reasons and cannot be named.

None of the soldiers who gave evidence to the inquiry, which opened in 2023, said they had witnessed any such behaviour themselves.

‘Fighting age males’

One of the soldiers, known only as N1799, told the inquiry they had raised concerns in 2011 about a unit referred to as UKSF1 after having a conversation about its operations with one of its members on a training course.

“During these operations it was said that ‘all fighting age males are killed’ on target regardless of the threat they posed, this included those not holding weapons,” their witness statement said.

“It was also indicated that ‘fighting age males’ were being executed on target, inside compounds, using a variety of methods after they had been restrained. In one case it was mentioned a pillow was put over the head of an individual before being killed with a pistol.”

The soldier said he was also informed that weapons were being “dropped” next to victims “to give the impression that a deceased individual had been armed when shot”, the inquiry heard.

Such a dropped weapon was colloquially known as a “Mr Wolf”, but N1799 stated he had “no idea at all” where the term came from.

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Counsel to the inquiry Oliver Glasgow KC asked: “When you heard it described as a ‘Mr Wolf’, was that used by one person or by more than one person or can you not remember?”

N1799 replied: “At least two or three people.”

Mr Glasgow continued: “Have you seen the film Pulp Fiction by Quentin Tarantino, where the individual who introduces himself as Mr Wolf says ‘I’m Mr Wolf and I’m here to solve problems’? Do you remember that?

The witness said: “No, I don’t.”

Mr Glasgow said: “Well, it is probably not essential viewing for anyone, but that particular individual in that film, he acts to clear up problems and to make crimes go away, does he not?”

N1799 responded: “Right. I had not put two and two together.”

The inquiry heard that N1799 escalated their concerns to other senior officers who took them seriously.

But, questioned by Mr Glasgow on whether they had any concerns for their own personal wellbeing after making allegations, the witness said: “I did then and I still do now.”

‘Mud-slinging’

Another officer, referred to as N2107, emailed colleagues expressing his disbelief at summaries of operations which suggested detained suspects had been allowed back into compounds where they were then said to have picked up weapons and attempted to attack the unit.

Meanwhile, a special forces commanding officer told the inquiry he believed reporting allegations of murder to his counterpart in another unit may have been seen as “mud-slinging”.

He said there was an “at times fractious and competitive” relationship between his unit and the accused unit.

In one of the hearings, he was asked whether he thought about reporting the allegations to his direct counterpart within the unit, but said it was a “deliberate act” to report up rather than sideway as it may be seen as “mud-slinging”.

British military police have previously conducted several inquiries into allegations of misconduct by forces in Afghanistan, including those made against the SAS.

However, the MoD has said none found enough evidence for prosecutions.

The inquiry’s aim is to ascertain whether there was credible information of extra-judicial killings, whether investigations
by the military police years later into N1799’s concerns were properly conducted, and if unlawful killings were covered up.

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