Rise in Islamic State Khorasan deadly attacks could be sign of group’s growing strength in Afghanistan
Attacks by Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) in Afghanistan have become more deadly since the withdrawal of NATO forces, with at least 346 civilians killed by the group since late August.
The insurgents carried out bombings in areas where previously they had little presence. A security expert told Sky News this could be a sign of the group’s growing strength.
Earlier this week, US Pentagon officials suggested ISIS-K intended to carry out attacks against the West and could have the ability to do so within six months.
The group is an affiliate of Islamic State based in South and Central Asia and are ideologically opposed to the Taliban’s nationalist view of Afghanistan, instead seeking to establish an Islamic State across the region.
During and after the US withdrawal, Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) have carried out a suspected 21 attacks in Afghanistan.
The deadliest of these was on 26 August when a suicide bomb at Kabul’s main airport killed 170 civilians and 13 US marines.
Since then, there have been several ISIS-K attacks across Afghanistan, including seven between 18 September – 6 October that killed 18 people.
On 8 October an ISIS-K suicide bomber targeted a Hazara mosque in the northern city of Kunduz, killing at least 43 people.
The picture below shows the damage caused by the bomb inside the mosque.
Shortly after, between 8-12 October, five attacks in four days around Jalalabad, an ISIS-K stronghold, targeted both the Taliban and civil society activists.
A few days later on 15 October, CCTV captured two men attacking a Shia mosque in Kandahar, in the south of the country.
At least 47 people were killed in the suicide attack carried out when prayers were underway in the courtyard of the mosque.
The footage shows the attackers entering the mosque and detonating a device.
At least five further attacks have occurred since the 15 October mosque attack in Kandahar, meaning around 408 people have been killed by ISIS-K in Afghanistan since August 26, including 346 civilians.
This level of ISIS-K attacks is not unprecedented. In 2018 they were responsible for more deaths globally than all but three other terrorist groups that year. Operations by the Afghan government and NATO forces helped reduce the threat throughout 2019 and 2020.
But now the number of attacks is rising again, with civilian casualties in October 2021 alone higher than in the first nine months of 2020.
Many of these attacks have taken place in the east of the country in Nangarhar province, where ISIS-K has a strong presence.
The Taliban has retaliated, with reports of people being dragged from their homes and killed in Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar, for allegedly being ISIS-K members or supporters.
The worsening situation is only exacerbating the existing humanitarian crisis within Afghanistan. The UN has warned that without urgent humanitarian relief the country is on a “countdown to catastrophe”.
It already has one of the largest populations internationally facing acute hunger and it is estimated that up to a million children are at risk of starvation.
What has changed since the withdrawal?
The flurry of attacks highlight the challenge facing the Taliban, who are now expected to provide security across the country despite lacking the manpower, skills, and finance of the previous Afghan government.
Dr Antionio Giustozzi, a senior research fellow at the defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute, said: “ISIS-K’s main enemy has always been the Taliban – there were relatively few incidents between them and the Americans previously.
“What’s different now is the spread of their activity across Afghanistan – Charikar, Kunduz, and Kandahar – these are places ISIS-K didn’t have overt activity before.
“The Islamic State sees the Taliban as being in a weak position right now as they are stretched very thin financially and militarily. Their manpower is taken up controlling the cities, so ISIS-K see now as the right time to strike.”
This week, a US Department of Defence official said that ISIS-K also intends to attack Western countries but that they don’t currently have the means to do so.
It is not just the US that will be monitoring developments with ISIS-K closely.
For the threat to be controlled, the support of other external powers will likely be needed. According to Dr Guistozzi: “The Taliban can only consolidate with support of the regional powers, notably China and Russia. Both of these countries are against the Islamic State – ISIS-K fear Russia in particular and their ruthless airstrikes, like they carried out in Syria.”
Reporting: Jack Taylor and Kieran Devine
Maps and Digital Production: Ganesh Rao
Satellite imagery: Google Earth
Data: The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won the election in Canada, according to Canadian broadcasters, but it is too soon to say whether they will form a majority government.
Mr Carney, who took over as prime minister after Justin Trudeau stepped down earlier this year, has beaten the leader of the Conservative Party Pierre Poilievre, according to CBC and CTV News projections.
However, it is too soon to say whether the Liberals will form a majority government, they added. The party has not yet secured the 172 electoral districts it needs for a majority.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Pic: Reuters
The election initially appeared to be a clear-cut race for the opposition Conservatives, who were enjoying a double-digit lead over the Liberals before Mr Trudeau resigned, and an intervention by Donald Trump led to a surge in support for Mr Carney’s party.
Mr Trump has repeatedly called for Canada to become the 51st US state since he was elected president for a second time and has imposed sweeping tariffs on Canada.
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Trump on why he wants Canada to be 51st state
Mr Carney has vowed to take a tougher approach with Washington over its tariffs and has said Canada will need to spend billions to reduce its reliance on the US.
Liberal supporters celebrate after Canadian broadcasters project their party has retained power. Pics: Reuters
If Mr Carney’s party only captures a minority of the House’s 343 seats, he will be forced to negotiate with other parties in order to stay in power.
Such minority governments rarely last longer than two-and-a-half years in Canada.
Canadians went to the polls after 11 people were killed in a deadly attack at a Vancouver street fair over the weekend that led to the suspension of campaigning for several hours.
Police have ruled out terrorism and said the suspect is a local man with a history of mental health issues.
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Mr Carney previously ran Canada’s central bank and later became the first non-Briton to become governor of the Bank of England.
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Power supplies have been returning in Spain and Portugal after large parts, including the capitals Madrid and Lisbon, were hit by a huge outage on Monday.
Millions of people were caught up in the chaos after the mass blackout brought many areas to a standstill, with trains stopping, planes grounded, internet and mobile phone services cut, traffic lights and ATMs down, and some routine hospital operations suspended.
Spain‘s interior ministry declared a national emergency and the two countries’ governments convened emergency cabinet meetings as officials tried to find out what caused the outage which started around 12.30pm (11.30am UK time).
A police car passes as vehicles wait in a traffic jam on the other side of the road in Madrid. Pic: Reuters
People gather outside Barcelona-Sants train station during a power outage. Pic: Reuters
Blackouts in Spain and Portugal: Follow latest updates
About half the electricity supplies in Spain have now been restored by the grid operator, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Monday evening, adding the rest should be back by Tuesday.
In a televised address, Mr Sanchez said authorities have not yet worked out what had caused the blackout in the Iberian Peninsula and were not ruling anything out.
He asked the public to refrain from speculation, and urged people to call emergency services only if really necessary.
Eduardo Prieto, the head of operations at Spanish power grid operator Red Electrica, said the event was unprecedented, calling it “exceptional and extraordinary”.
Meanwhile, Portugal‘s Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said power in his country would be fully restored in the coming hours.
He said all the state services remained operating in the country despite all the difficulties. He also said there was “no indication” a cyberattack was the cause.
Read more: Analysis – How electricity grids fail
A chef in Madrid works in a dark kitchen with the aid of his phone’s flashlight. Pic: Reuters
Fans are seen after Madrid Open matches were suspended due to a power outage. Pic: Reuters
‘Rare atmospheric phenomenon’
Portugal’s grid operator Ren claimed the outage was caused by a fault in the Spanish electricity grid, related to a “rare atmospheric phenomenon”.
Ren says that, due to extreme temperature variations in Spain, there were “anomalous oscillations” in very high-voltage lines.
It also says that given the complexity of the issue, it could take up to a week for the network to fully normalise again.
It comes as France briefly lost power following the outages in Spain and Portugal, French grid operator RTE said.
Parts of Madrid underground were evacuated and traffic lights in the city were not working, according to local media.
Play was suspended at the Madrid Open tennis tournament due to the outage – with Britain’s Jacob Fearnley forced off court in a critical moment during his third-round tie with Grigor Dimitrov.
The loss of power affected scoreboards and the camera above the court. Organisers later announced the tournament would not be able to resume on Monday, with afternoon and evening sessions cancelled.
Airports affected
Aena, which runs international airports across Spain, said earlier that “some incidents were occurring” at the airports due to the outage.
The company added in a statement: “Contingency generators are active. Please check with your airline, as there may be disruptions to access and ground transportation.”
People ‘had nowhere to go’
Maddie Sephton, who is from west London, was on the Madrid Metro when the power outage occurred.
“We got on the train and everything was fine,” she told Sky News. “But then everything went dark.”
She was stuck on the train for 20 minutes until a staff member opened the doors manually.
A metro worker passes underneath barricade tape to enter Legazpi Metro station after the outage. Pic: Reuters
A view shows a transmission tower during a power outage near Barcelona in Spain. Pic: Reuters
Mrs Sephton says she was on her way to the airport at the time – and had to exit the station by walking up 15 flights of stairs with her luggage.
“No lifts are operating – making it difficult for elderly people with limited mobility,” she added.
Above ground, she said that “everyone is just standing around and waiting”.
Medical staff relocate a patient in Pamplona, Pic: AP
Bars were unable to take card payments, cash machines are down, and traffic lights weren’t working either.
“I currently don’t have any internet service and just €15 in my wallet – I can’t withdraw any money from the ATM,” she added.
“A couple have offered to let us get a ride in their taxi to the airport. Their flight is at 4.30pm so they’re pretty relaxed – but my flight back to London is at 3pm and I’m nervous.”
Mrs Sephton said: “People are just walking but have nowhere to go, and nothing to do.”
Traffic lights have stopped working following a power outage in downtown Lisbon, Portugal. Pic: AP
People try to board a crowded bus after the subway stopped running following a power outage in Lisbon, Portugal. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, thousands of passengers had to be evacuated after the blackout left the metro service in Barcelona without power.
The blackout was also reported to have forced the closure of the city’s tram system and rendered some traffic lights there inoperable.
It has also impacted medical facilities, with hospitals in Madrid and Catalonia forced to suspend routine medical work. Staff have been able to attend to critical patients using power from backup generators.
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It comes as Metrovalencia, the urban rail system, encompassing both metro and tram services in Valencia, said traffic in the city was “disrupted” due to a “general power outage in the city”.
The outage also hit the Portuguese capital Lisbon and surrounding areas, as well as northern and southern parts of the country.
Portugal’s government said the incident appeared to stem from problems outside the country, an official told national news agency Lusa.
“It looks like it was a problem with the distribution network, apparently in Spain. It’s still being ascertained,” Cabinet Minister Leitão Amaro was quoted as saying.
We rarely think about how essential and reliable electricity grids are until they fail.
Now, millions of people across Spain, Portugal and parts of France are likely thinking of little else.
While local power cuts are fairly common, what’s happened across the Iberian peninsula is something far more extreme.
Much of Spain and Portugal’s electricity transmission system collapsed in seconds including in major cities Lisbon, Madrid, Barcelona and Seville.
Blackouts latest: ‘Rare atmospheric phenomenon’ behind outages
It’s likely the outage will surpass Europe’s largest blackout to date when 56 million people in Italy and Switzerland lost power for up to 12 hours in 2023.
The cause of the outage is unclear. Portugal’s grid operator has blamed a “rare atmospheric phenomenon” that caused “anomalous oscillations” in high voltage power lines in Spain.
Spain’s grid operator has yet to respond to that or provide an update on the cause. But it’s unlikely whatever caused the outage was a single, localised event.
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Mayhem in Spain after major power outage
A major power line going down can cause a large outage – as it did in 2021, when an interconnector between France and Spain failed leaving a million people without power for a few hours.
But it’s unlikely to cause a system-wide failure of the kind we’re seeing now.
However, when things do start to fail on a power grid, they can cascade uncontrollably.
Keeping a grid running is a constant and highly complex balancing act.
People outside a terminal at Lisbon Airport during the blackout. Pic: Reuters
Spain’s mains AC electricity supply grid, like ours in the UK, runs at 50Hz. That frequency is based on the speed at which generating hardware such as gas and nuclear turbines spin.
If there are sudden fluctuations in power supply or demand – a power station failing or a high voltage power line going down, for example – the frequency of AC power in the transmission lines changes and circuit breakers trip to protect either the transmission network, or power plant hardware from burning out.
To prevent such failures, grid engineers constantly measure and forecast supply and demand to keep the grid balanced.
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To protect the system in emergencies, they occasionally have to “shed load” by cutting power to parts of the grid – the reason we’ve all experienced the occasional short-lived power cut.
But if balance is lost, a grid can fail in a domino effect with sections of the grid tripping, then power plants shutting down to protect themselves from the drop in demand, one after another.
The challenge now, and it’s a nightmare for Spain and Portugal’s power engineers, is to gradually restore the grid section by section while maintaining the balance of supply and demand.
Act too fast, and the grid can trip again. Take too long and some power plants or substations might struggle to restart – especially if they rely on battery power to do so.
While some regions of Spain have already had power restored, and Portugal says its power will be back to normal within hours, it could take much longer for the system to be fully restored.
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