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Here are the key points from Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s budget speech:

Economy - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• The chancellor says there are “challenging” months ahead, adding that inflation in September was 3.1% and is likely to rise further – the OBR expect it to average 4% over the next year

• Pressures caused by supply chains and energy crisis will “take months to ease”.

• Economy to return to its pre-COVID level at the turn of the year – an improvement on OBR forecasts revealed in March

• Economy expected to grow by 6% in 2022, and 2.1%, 1.3% and 1.6% over the next three years

• In July last year, at the height of the pandemic, unemployment was expected to peak at 12% but the OBR now expect it to peak at 5.2%

• Compared to 2020, wages have grown by 3.4%

Debt and borrowing - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• Underlying debt is forecast to be 85.2% of GDP this year

• It will reach 85.4% in 2022-23, before peaking at 85.7% in 2023-24

• It then falls in the final three years of the forecast from 85.1% to 83.3%

• Total departmental spending over this parliament will increase by £150bn, growing by 3.8% a year in real terms

NHS - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• Spending on healthcare to increase by £44bn to over £177bn by the end of this parliament

• Extra revenue from health and social care levy will go towards NHS and social care as promised

• Health budget will be the largest since 2010, with record investment in research and development, better screening, 40 new hospitals and 70 hospital upgrades

Crime - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• Mr Sunak says the budget funds an ambition to recruit 20,000 new police officers

• Extra £2.2bn for courts, prisons and probation services, including £500m to reduce the backlog in courts

• Programmes to tackle neighbourhood crime, reoffending, county lines crimes, violence against women and girls, victims’ services, and improved response to rape allegations

• £3.8bn for the “largest prison-building programme in a generation”

Housing - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• £11.5bn to build up to 180,000 affordable home – 20% more than the previous programme

• £1.8bn to bring 1,500 hectares of brownfield land into use

• £640m a year to help those who are rough sleepers and homeless

Cladding - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• £5bn to remove unsafe cladding from the highest risk buildings, partly funded by a residential property developers’ tax, which will be levied on developers with profits over £25m at the rate of 4%

Transport - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• £21bn for roads as part of a larger investment in transport

• £2.6bn for upgrades of over 50 local roads

• More than £5bn for road maintenance – enough to fill one million more potholes a year

• More than £5bn for buses, cycling and walking improvements

• HGV levy (previously suspended until August) will now be suspended until 2023

• Vehicle excise duty for heavy goods vehicles to be frozen

• Funding to improve lorry park facilities

Rail - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• £46bn investment in railways, with an integrated rail plan to be published soon

• £5.7bn for London-style transport settlements in Greater Manchester, Liverpool City Region, Tees Valley, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, West Midlands, West of England

Child services - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• £300m for parenting programmes for families, tailored services to help with perinatal mental health

• £150m to support training and development for early years workforce

• £200m for Supporting Families programme which helps families with varied needs

• Over £200m to continue the holiday activity and food programme

• £560m for youth services – enough to fund up to 300 youth clubs in England

• More than £200m to build or transform up to 8,000 community football pitches in the UK

• £2bn new funding to help schools and colleges, bringing total support (some already announced) to almost £5bn

• Restoring per pupil funding to 2010 levels in real terms, equivalent to a cash increase for every pupil of more than £1,500

• 30,000 new school places for children with special needs and disabilities

Business support - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• New 50% business rates discount for businesses in the retail, hospitality and leisure sectors, including pubs, music venues, cinemas, restaurants, hotels, theatres, and gyms

• This will mean any eligible business can claim a discount up to a maximum of £110,000 – a tax cut worth almost £1.7bn

• Mr Sunak says that, together with small business rates relief, this means more than 90% of all businesses in these sectors will see a discount of at least 50%

Alcohol duty - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• An overhaul of alcohol duty, cutting the number of main duty rates from 15 to six – the stronger the drink, the higher the rate

• Small producer relief will extend the principle of small brewers’ relief to small cidermakers and others making alcoholic drinks of less than 8.5% ABV

• Sparkling wines will pay the same duty as still wines of equivalent strength, rather than the 28% they currently pay. Duty will also be cut for fruit cider

Fuel duty - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• Planned rise in fuel duty will be cancelled, meaning that – after 12 consecutive years of frozen rates, the average car driver will save a total of £1,900

Coronavirus - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• National living wage to increase next year by 6.6% to £9.50 an hour. For a full time worker, that’s a pay rise worth over £1,000

• This move will help more than two million of the lowest-paid workers, Mr Sunak says

Tax - graphic for rolling budget coverage 27 October

• Mr Sunak says his goal is to reduce taxes and the universal credit taper, which reduces financial support as people work more hours, is in his sights

• The rate is currently 63%, so for every extra £1 someone earns, their universal credit is reduced by 63p. Mr Sunak announces plans to cut this by 8 percentage points (from 63% to 55%). This will come into effect “within weeks”

• Work allowances being increased by £500 – combined with the change to the taper, this is a tax cut worth more than £2bn, he says. Nearly two million families will keep, on average, an extra £1,000 a year

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At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

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At least 13 people may have taken their own lives linked to Post Office scandal, public inquiry finds

At least 13 people may have taken their own lives after being accused of wrongdoing based on evidence from the Horizon IT system that the Post Office and developers Fujitsu knew could be false, the public inquiry has found.

A further 59 people told the inquiry they considered ending their lives, 10 of whom tried on at least one occasion, while other postmasters and family members recount suffering from alcoholism and mental health disorders including anorexia and depression, family breakup, divorce, bankruptcy and personal abuse.

Follow latest on public inquiry into Post Office scandal

Writing in the first volume of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry report, chairman Sir Wyn Williams concludes that this enormous personal toll came despite senior employees at the Post Office knowing the Horizon IT system could produce accounts “which were illusory rather than real” even before it was rolled out to branches.

Sir Wyn said: “I am satisfied from the evidence that I have heard that a number of senior, and not so senior, employees of the Post Office knew or, at the very least, should have known that Legacy Horizon was capable of error… Yet, for all practical purposes, throughout the lifetime of Legacy Horizon, the Post Office maintained the fiction that its data was always accurate.”

Referring to the updated version of Horizon, known as Horizon Online, which also had “bugs errors and defects” that could create illusory accounts, he said: “I am satisfied that a number of employees of Fujitsu and the Post Office knew that this was so.”

The first volume of the report focuses on what Sir Wyn calls the “disastrous” impact of false accusations made against at least 1,000 postmasters, and the various redress schemes the Post Office and government has established since miscarriages of justice were identified and proven.

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‘It stole a lot from me’

Recommendations regarding the conduct of senior management of the Post Office, Fujitsu and ministers will come in a subsequent report, but Sir Wyn is clear that unjust and flawed prosecutions were knowingly pursued.

“All of these people are properly to be regarded as victims of wholly unacceptable behaviour perpetrated by a number of individuals employed by and/or associated with the Post Office and Fujitsu from time to time and by the Post Office and Fujitsu as institutions,” he says.

What are the inquiry’s recommendations?

Calling for urgent action from government and the Post Office to ensure “full and fair compensation”, he makes 19 recommendations including:

• Government and the Post Office to agree a definition of “full and fair” compensation to be used when agreeing payouts
• Ending “unnecessarily adversarial attitude” to initial offers that have depressed the value of payouts, ⁠and ensuring consistency across all four compensation schemes
• The creation of a standing body to administer financial redress to people wronged by public bodies
• Compensation to be extended to close family members of those affected who have suffered “serious negative consequences”
• The Post Office, Fujitsu and government agreeing a programme for “restorative justice”, a process that brings together those that have suffered harm with those that have caused it

Regarding the human impact of the Post Office’s pursuit of postmasters, including its use of unique powers of prosecution, Sir Wyn writes: “I do not think it is easy to exaggerate the trauma which persons are likely to suffer when they are the subject of criminal investigation, prosecution, conviction and sentence.”

He says that even the process of being interviewed under caution by Post Office investigators “will have been troubling at best and harrowing at worst”.

Read more:
Post Office inquiry lays bare heart-breaking legacy – analysis

‘Hostile and abusive behaviour’

The report finds that those wrongfully convicted were “subject to hostile and abusive behaviour” in their local communities, felt shame and embarrassment, with some feeling forced to move.

Detailing the impact on close family members of those prosecuted, Sir Wyn writes: “Wives, husbands, children and parents endured very significant suffering in the form of distress, worry and disruption to home life, in employment and education.

“In a number of cases, relationships with spouses broke down and ended in divorce or separation.

“In the most egregious cases, family members themselves suffered psychiatric illnesses or psychological problems and very significant financial losses… their suffering has been acute.”

The report includes 17 case studies of those affected by the scandal including some who have never spoken publicly before. They include Millie Castleton, daughter of Lee Castleton, one of the first postmasters prosecuted.

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Three things you need to know about Post Office report

She told the inquiry how her family being “branded thieves and liars” affected her mental health, and contributed to a diagnosis of anorexia that forced her to drop out of university.

Her account concludes: “Even now as I go into my career, I still find it so incredibly hard to trust anyone, even subconsciously. I sabotage myself by not asking for help with anything.

“I’m trying hard to break this cycle but I’m 26 and am very conscious that I may never be able to fully commit to natural trust. But my family is still fighting. I’m still fighting, as are many hundreds involved in the Post Office trial.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the inquiry’s report “marks an important milestone for sub-postmasters and their families”.

He added that he was “committed to ensuring wronged sub-postmasters are given full, fair, and prompt redress”.

“The recommendations contained in Sir Wyn’s report require careful reflection, including on further action to complete the redress schemes,” Mr Reynolds said.

“Government will promptly respond to the recommendations in full in parliament.”

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Public finances in ‘relatively vulnerable position.’, OBR warns

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Public finances in 'relatively vulnerable position.', OBR warns

The UK’s public finances are in a “relatively vulnerable position”, the government’s official forecaster has warned.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) cited a drag from successive economic shocks, recent U-turns on spending cuts and higher-than-expected policy commitments.

It sounded alarm over the projected path for debt as a result, in its annual fiscal risks and sustainability report.

It saw total debt above 270% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the early 2070s – up from a current level of 96.5% – declaring that rising debts have led to “a substantial erosion of the UK’s capacity to respond to future shocks”.

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The OBR’s report highlighted damage from the COVID pandemic and cost of living crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But it raised fears that past and current government policies were further harming the sustainability of the public finances.

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The report said that the pension triple lock, for example, was now estimated to cost £15.5bn annually by 2029-30.

That was “around three times higher than initial expectations”, it said.

The lock, which rises each year in line with inflation, wage growth or 2.5% – whichever is higher – had risen by more than the 2.5% base in eight of the 13 years of operation to date, the report stated.

The watchdog said it reflected more volatile inflation than expected.

It also picked up on the latest government U-turns over planned welfare and winter fuel payment cuts in the face of rebellions by Labour MPs.

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Welfare U-turn ‘has come at cost’

The decisions are expected to leave Chancellor Rachel Reeves facing a black hole of £6.75bn while weaker-than-expected economic growth could add a further £9bn to that sum in the run-up to the autumn budget, according to Sky News projections that see a void of around £20bn.

The OBR highlighted future risks from rising defence spending and the impact of climate change.

Public sector pay demands could also prove a drag, with resident doctors voting in favour of strikes over pay.

While ministers acknowledge damage to the public purse from the U-turns, Ms Reeves has repeatedly ruled out a new wave of borrowing to fund a spending spree.

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Could the rich be taxed to fill black hole?

As such, the government has not ruled out the prospect of some form of wealth tax to help meet its commitments despite the top 1% of earners contributing almost a third of all income tax already – on top of other targeted taxes such as capital gains.

The report said: “Efforts to put the UK’s public finances on a more sustainable footing have met with only limited and temporary success in recent years in the aftermath of the shocks, debt has also continued to rise and borrowing remained elevated because governments have reversed plans to consolidate the public finances.

“Planned tax rises have been reversed, and, more significantly, planned spending reductions have been abandoned.”

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said of the report: “The OBR’s report lays bare the damage: Britain now has the third-highest deficit and the fourth-highest debt burden in Europe, with borrowing costs among the highest in the developed world.

“Under Rachel Reeves’ economic mismanagement and Keir Starmer’s weak leadership, our public finances have become dangerously exposed – vulnerable to future shocks, welfare spending rising unsustainably, taxes rising to record highs and crippling levels of debt interest.

“Labour’s recklessness risks it all – your pension, your job, your home, your savings.”

A Number 10 spokesman said: “We recognise the realities set out in the OBR’s report and we’re taking the decisions needed to provide stability to the public finances.”

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UK to miss deadline to agree steel and aluminium tariffs

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UK to miss deadline to agree steel and aluminium tariffs

The UK will miss the White House-imposed deadline to agree a trade deal on steel and aluminium this week, according to insiders from government and industry.

Donald Trump had insisted that unless Britain could finalise the details of its metals trade deal with the US by 9 July, he would raise the tariffs faced by steel and aluminium imports from the 25% the UK currently pays to the 50% paid by other countries. If it could seal the deal, those tariffs could drop to zero.

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However, despite weeks of negotiations and promises that the deal would be completed by the end of June, talks have foundered on two key issues. First, the US is insisting that only steel “melted and poured” in the UK (in other words, forged in blast furnaces or electric arc furnaces) can be included in the deal. However, one of Britain’s biggest steel exporters to the US, Tata Steel, is not melting and pouring its UK steel because of the closure of its blast furnaces.

Second, the US is wary of the fact that while the government has taken control of British Steel, which operates Britain’s last remaining blast furnaces in Scunthorpe, the company itself still legally has Chinese owners.

Government insiders have told businesses they still expect to have a deal done by the end of this month, and that they are confident the White House will not impose the 50% tariffs for the time being. They say one of the chief challenges they face is that the administration is so overwhelmed by attempts to negotiate with other countries that they lack the bandwidth to deal with the small print on Britain’s deal.

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Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces

“As far as the Americans are concerned, the UK is already a done deal,” said one person close to the negotiations. The problem is that while a deal has been done on car and aerospace exports to the US, the metals element of the trade agreement is still some way from being signed. In the meantime, steel exports continue to incur tariffs – albeit lower than those imposed on other countries around the world.

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