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Chancellor Rishi Sunak has set out a budget for a “new economy” after the COVID crisis with a £150bn increase in government spending – but he also warned of “challenging” months ahead due to the continuing pandemic and rising inflation.

In his statement to the House of Commons, Mr Sunak promised “the largest increase this century” in total spending across government departments.

The £150bn increase would include “a real terms rise in overall spending for every single department” and also saw Mr Sunak confirm money for the NHS, prisons, local transport and housing.

However, the chancellor also used his budget to warn of the “challenging backdrop of rising inflation” as he promised to provide “help for working families with the cost of living”.

Having previously removed a pandemic-inspired £20 per week uplift to Universal Credit, Mr Sunak said he would now be lowering the benefits taper rate from 63% to 55%.

This means, for every extra £1 somone earns, their Universal Credit will be reduced by 55p rather than 63p.

Mr Sunak claimed the move, which will be implemented no later than 1 December, would see nearly two million families keep, on average, an extra £1,000 a year.

More on Budget 2021

In a series of tax changes, Mr Sunak announced a new post-Brexit system of alcohol duties, including a lower rate of tax on draught beer and cider to boost pubs.

He also sought to support high streets across the country with a new year-long 50% business rates discount for businesses in the retail, hospitality and leisure sectors.

But, in a move that might worry environmentalists and in the week before the COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow, the chancellor revealed a new lower rate of Air Passenger Duty for domestic flights.

As he outlined the current state of the economy, Mr Sunak said he was keeping a cash reserve to “protect ourselves against economic risks”.

“That is the responsible decision at a time of increasing global economic uncertainty, when our public finances are twice as sensitive to changes in interest rates as they were before the pandemic and six times as sensitive as they were before the financial crisis,” the chancellor said.

“Just a one percentage point increase in inflation and interest rates would cost us around £23bn.”

Mr Sunak set out new government spending rules said he would keep the public finances “on the path of discipline and responsibility” with his new rules.

These include underlying public sector net debt – excluding the impact of the Bank of England – falling as as a percentage of GDP.

And Mr Sunak also said that, in normal times, the government should only borrow to invest in “future growth and prosperity”.

“Everyday spending must be paid for through taxation,” the chancellor said, as he set out action to pay back the multi-billion pound spending during the COVID crisis.

Mr Sunak said his budget “does not draw a line under COVID” as he warned of “challenging months ahead” and encouraged “everyone eligible to get their booster jabs right away”.

But the chancellor added his budget “does begin the work of preparing for a new economy” after the coronavirus crisis.

The OBR now expects the UK’s economic recovery from the COVID pandemic to be “quicker” than previously thought, Mr Sunak told MPs, with growth revised up from 4% to 6.5% for this year.

In 2022, the OBR expects the UK economy to grow by 6% and 2.1%, 1.3% and 1.6% over the following three years.

And they have also revised down their estimates of long-term “scarring” to the UK economy of the COVID crisis.

The chancellor also told the Commons that the OBR expects a lesser peak of unemployment, of 5.2%, which means “over two million fewer people out of work than previously feared”.

Wednesday’s statement was the third budget delivered by Mr Sunak as chancellor and the second of this year, following his statement in March.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer was unable to respond to Mr Sunak’s budget in the House of Commons after earlier testing positive for COVID.

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UK central bank still ‘disproportionately cautious’ about stablecoins

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UK central bank still ‘disproportionately cautious’ about stablecoins

The UK’s central bank, the Bank of England (BOE), has released a proposed regulatory regime for stablecoins. The consultation paper took into account the perspectives of the crypto industry, but some observers say it remains restrictive.

BOE released the document on Nov. 10 — some two years after it announced the initial discussion paper. The original offered a vision for crypto that many in the industry claimed would doom the UK’s digital asset space.

The BOE said that it received comments and feedback from a broad range of 46 different stakeholders, including “banks, non-bank payment service providers, payment system operators, trade associations, academia, and individuals.”

The UK’s central bank may have scrapped some more hardline requirements, but some in the industry believe that it isn’t enough. Tom Rhodes, chief legal officer at UK-based stablecoin issuer Agant, said the bank remains “disproportionately cautious and restrictive.”

The bank also released a roadmap for further rulemaking. Source: Bank of England

Bank of England still cautious on stablecoins

The new iteration presents a number of improvements on the 2023 version, Rhodes told Cointelegraph.

“The latest proposals do include some innovative features, such as direct BOE liquidity lines and the ability to repo reserves for liquidity purposes.”

He said that, as it concerns the UK market, “these proposals can be further explored and potentially expanded to create a more competitive backing asset regime, without compromising on stability.”

But despite the “welcome progress in the BOE’s sentiment towards stablecoins,” it has been “unusually vocal about the perceived risks of stablecoins,” said Rhodes.

One of the more controversial restrictions in the paper was limits on what the BOE called a “systemic retail stablecoin.” In the paper, this is defined as a stablecoin that is “widely used by individuals to make everyday payments such as for shopping and receiving salaries.”

The central bank wants to see limits of 20,000 pounds for individuals and 10 million pounds for businesses that accept it as a form of payment. This is an increase from the initial proposal, but the idea of limits on how much crypto you can hold didn’t sit well with some. 

Crypto influencer Aleksandra Huk wrote, “Bank of England wants to cap stablecoin holdings at £20,000. Who gave them the right to tell us what to buy, where to store our money and how much we can have? […] Honestly, this is the best advert ever for privacy coins and for leaving the UK.”

Related: UK crypto hopes stall, but ‘encouraging signs’ are there

There are a few caveats to the suggested rule. Geoff Richards, head of community at the Ontology Network, noted, “The proposal applies only to sterling-denominated stablecoins used in UK payment systems that could become ‘systemic.’ Not USDT, not USDC, not random DeFi tokens.”

Ian Taylor, board member of crypto industry advocacy group CryptoUK, told Cointelegraph that he understands the central bank’s more cautious approach, at least as it applies to the stablecoin limits:

“The Bank of England has a mandate to protect against financial stability. And that financial stability is connected to the banking system. So insofar as banks take deposits and they issue loans against those deposits […] creates credit, this is an economic benefit to any economy that we have.”

The BOE is rightfully worried that taking deposits out of banks would reduce their ability to lend, affecting financial stability. “So, that’s why they want to baby-step this.”

Rhodes said that the “vast majority” of UK stablecoins will not fall under the regime anyway, at least not as stated in the paper. He noted that Mastercard was only recognized as a systemically important payment system in 2021 and that non-systemic stablecoins will be regulated under the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) ruleset, “which is less restrictive.”

Still work to be done as UK opens up to crypto

Access to central bank liquidity and deposit accounts at the BOE was a welcome update for stablecoin issuers. But crypto industry representatives believe that there is still room for improvement in the central bank’s plan.

Regarding the stablecoin caps, “The systemic thresholds remain uncertain,” said Rhodes. He said it would be helpful to have clarification from His Majesty’s Treasury when an issuer has reached sufficient scale to “pose a risk to the UK economy as a whole, before they will recognize the issuer as systemic.”

Taylor also noted the difficulty of enforcing these stablecoin caps. If the government is licensing an issuer, then they’re the ones “responsible for monitoring each individual client or customer, whether wholesale, corporate or retail, as to how many stablecoins they’ve given them.”

The problem is that many people get their stablecoins on secondary markets or a “host of different sources.” People can receive stablecoins as compensation at work or on an exchange or peer-to-peer transaction. “So, the actual operational enforcement of that I question, and we’ve seen no detail in regards to that.”

Overall, “clarity and speed” will make the UK stablecoin ecosystem more competitive, said Arvin Abraham, partner at Goodwin Procter. He told Cointelegraph that regulators need to give issuers “a clean runway and predictable timelines” to navigate the approvals process.

Speed isn’t the government’s strong suit, however.

The British government has been working on crypto regulations since 2017, when it first adopted Anti-Money Laundering and Know Your Customer requirements for crypto-related businesses like exchanges. Now, eight years later, the central bank is still developing its policies based on industry feedback.

The slow pace of progress presents a problem. According to Taylor, “We’ve been consulting on a wider framework to regulate stablecoins for almost five years, and we still haven’t gotten any actual license framework in place, which is problematic for a number of reasons,” he said.

“It doesn’t help businesses that want to launch stablecoins in the UK. They don’t have a clear roadmap of how to do that,” he said, “which in turn forces them to move offshore to jurisdictions where there are other regulatory frameworks already live.”

This is for a number of reasons, Taylor explained, including consecutive changes in government, as well as a lack of “real champions in any of our key stakeholders, be that the current government, be that Treasury, be that the FCA.”

Progress on crypto regulations may be slow in the UK — slower than many in the industry would like — but for Abraham, “The Bank is being pragmatic and fair. The overriding message is that innovation is welcome, but if you want your token to function like money, you need money-grade controls.”

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