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The French government has stepped back from a threat to impose disruptive port checks on lorries and boats after the UK threatened to take legal action in a row over post-Brexit fishing licences.

Key talks between the two sides will take place later this week aimed at resolving the disagreement, but the risk of further escalation remains.

Sky News examines what is behind the row between the UK and France and what measures London could take if the impasse rumbles on.

What is the dispute about?

Under the terms of the Brexit trade deal, which came into force on 1 January, EU access to UK waters and UK access to EU waters is now managed through a licensing system for fishing vessels.

The current row erupted after the UK authorities refused to give licences to some French fishing vessels to operate in UK waters because they believed they did not meet the requirements.

According to the French government, the UK has only issued half the fishing licences that Paris believes it is entitled to.

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Environment Secretary George Eustice told Sky News last week that the UK has issued post-Brexit licences to 1,700 vessels, including 750 French fishing boats, which amounts to 98% of applicants.

But the row deepened when the Cornelis Gert Jan scallop trawler was detained by French authorities last Thursday near the port of Le Havre.

The owners of the British vessel denied French claims that it did not have the correct licence to fish in French waters and said the Cornelis was being used as a “pawn” in the wider UK-France fishing dispute.

France initially said that if the UK did not grant more licences for its fishing vessels it would, from Tuesday, block its ports, carry out security checks on British vessels, reinforce controls of lorries to and from the UK, reinforce customs and hygiene controls, and raise tariffs.

However, Paris has stepped back from introducing these measures.

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France postpones sanctions over fishing row

Downing Street says talks will take place with France on Wednesday about the situation, as well as other “issues important to the UK-EU relationship, including the Northern Ireland Protocol”.

What are dispute resolution measures?

It is against this backdrop that the UK has threatened to take legal action.

The prospect was raised by Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week and repeated by the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in a Sky News interview on Monday.

The foreign secretary set a 48-hour deadline for the fishing dispute to be resolved, although it’s not clear if that deadline still stands in light of recent moves from Paris.

If legal action were to be taken, this would involve the UK triggering the dispute resolution measures contained in the Brexit trade deal, officially known as the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).

The measures are designed to be used when one side feels that the other is in breach of the TCA.

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PM ‘worried’ that treaty may have been broken on fishing

Initially, this would mean a 30-day period of consultation between the two sides which can be extended if both parties agree.

The aim of this first step is to resolve any disagreement through dialogue.

But if a solution cannot be found, the complainant can progress things further and ask for an independent arbitration tribunal to be set up.

This would be made up of three members: one nominated by the UK, one put forward by the EU and a jointly-agreed chair.

The tribunal would then rule within 130 days of being set up, although an interim report would be issued earlier.

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Minister: French reaction ‘unacceptable’

One side can ask for this timeline to be sped up, which would see it cut in half.

Tribunal rulings are legally binding and if a side is found to have breached the agreement they have 30 days to set out how they will comply.

Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said of the process: “In terms of the legal mechanisms we are very much talking about a process here that could drag on for a while.”

What happens if one side does not comply?

The other party can ask for compensation or suspend certain obligations contained in the agreement in areas like trade, aviation, road transport and fisheries.

The tribunal can be asked to rule on whether the suspension is appropriate, while the suspension should be rescinded if the other side then decides to follow its ruling.

There are also specific steps that one side can take in relation to fishing.

What measures can be taken on fishing?

One side could decide to entirely suspend access to its waters and scrap the preferential tariff agreement that applies to fishery products.

Again, an arbitration tribunal could end up getting involved, with it ruling if the measure is a proportionate response.

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Brexit: Fishermen frustrated by fishing row

The UK, or indeed France, could choose to go further and apply tariffs on fisheries and non-fisheries products or even suspend elements of the TCA relating to trade and road transport.

Either side can also decide to bin the agreement on fisheries with a notice period of nine months.

What would the impact be on UK-EU relations long-term?

According to Sam Lowe: “If the UK feels the diplomatic route has been exhausted, proceeding with dispute resolution within the confines of the TCA is the proper way to go about things.

“At least in the TCA there are rules, processes to be followed; much better than spilling out into an unconstrained trade war with both the EU and UK free to do whatever they want.”

However, he warned that a simmering dispute could have a wider impact, adding: “These disputes do have political ramifications: they chip away at the good will necessary to reach a compromise on other outstanding issues such as Northern Ireland.”

Are the dispute resolution mechanisms different when it comes to Northern Ireland?

Yes.

The UK and EU are currently locked in talks over potential changes to the protocol, which is designed to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

The protocol is part of the withdrawal agreement between the two sides and is separate from the TCA.

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Do we need a new Northern Ireland Protocol?

If these talks break down or do not prove fruitful, either side has the option of activating Article 16 of the protocol.

This states that if the protocol is causing “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist”, or leading to a “diversion of trade” then either the UK or EU can introduce “appropriate safeguard measures” to tackle the problems.

Brussels at one stage proposed using Article 16 to stop COVID vaccine exports from the EU moving to Great Britain from Northern Ireland, but stepped back from this after a backlash.

Opponents of the protocol in Northern Ireland have been calling on the UK government to invoke Article 16 to stop checks and controls on goods.

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

Read more:
Jobs market continues to slow
Banks step up lobbying over threat of tax hikes

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The big issues facing the UK economy

‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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