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While the NFL Power Rankings prefer to look at the league through a positive lens, sometimes we have to go to Negative Town. That’s where we are this week, as we asked our NFL Nation writers to pick the weakest aspect of their team through eight weeks.

Of course, some teams have more problem areas to choose from than others, and some of those issues are a bit more detrimental to winning games. So while teams such as the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and the residents of New York City had quite a few more ailments than the relatively minor problems of the NFC’s Fab Five (or six if you ask the New Orleans Saints), every team has wrinkles to iron out. The entire game experience is covered this week, from not being able to rush the passer to not converting on third down to not being able to defend onside kicks (Los Angeles Rams fans know that pain). So here’s what your team, and every other team, is bad at midway through the 2021 season.

How we rank our Power Rankings: Our power panel — a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities — evaluates how teams stack up throughout the season.

Previous rankings: 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Preseason

Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Previous ranking: 4

Biggest Achilles’ heel: The red zone

The Packers were one of the best red zone teams last season on both sides of the ball. They led the NFL in red zone offense, scoring touchdowns on 80% of their trips inside the opponents’ 20. This season, they’re tied for 20th at 57.6%. On defense in 2020, they were eighth, allowing opponent touchdowns on 57.7% of their red zone possessions. This season, they’re 30th at 78.3%. They had the awful run of 15 straight touchdowns allowed on opponent red zone possessions. That finally ended in Week 7, when punchless Washington went 0-for-4. But the same issues recurred Thursday against the Cardinals, who went 3-for-4. The one stop, however, was Rasul Douglas‘ game-clinching interception in the end zone in the final seconds. — Rob Demovsky


Previous ranking: 1

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Run defense

As the world saw Thursday night, when the Packers ran for 151 yards, if a team can eat the clock on the ground, the Cardinals become vulnerable. Their run defense has been suspect throughout the season, giving up an average of 120.1 yards per game but 4.88 yards per carry, which is the second most in the NFL. Arizona has given up more than 100 rushing yards in five of its eight games. Running against Arizona has become a team’s best defense against quarterback Kyler Murray, who sits on the sideline as teams pound the ground for yards and clock. — Josh Weinfuss

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Sam Acho explains what LB Von Miller brings to the Rams’ already impressive defense.


Previous ranking: 3

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Special teams

The Rams have been unable to settle on a consistent kick and punt returner, leaning instead on sure-handed receiver Cooper Kupp, which makes it difficult not to hold your breath when such duty is required of the NFL’s leading receiver. Rookies Jake Funk, Tutu Atwell and Ben Skowronek have also tried their hand at returning, but Funk suffered a season-ending injury, and neither Atwell nor Skowronek has proved capable of handling the full-time job. And it’s not just the Rams’ return game that’s in question. In a Week 7 win over the Lions, the Rams allowed an early onside kick and watched as two fake punts were converted into first downs. — Lindsey Thiry


Previous ranking: 2

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Penalties

If the secondary was the Bucs’ Achilles’ heel last season, penalties are this season. The Bucs’ 59 penalties this season are one shy of the league high of 60 by the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bucs’ 580 yards in penalties are also the most in the league. Their 11 penalties for 99 yards were a key culprit in the Saints’ advancing the ball despite losing Jameis Winston in the Bucs’ 36-27 loss Sunday. — Jenna Laine


Previous ranking: 6

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Big plays allowed

To a degree this feels like a nitpick because the Cowboys’ defense has outperformed expectations so far entering the season. But when they play better quarterbacks down the stretch — and potentially in the playoffs — they can’t have these types of lapses. They have allowed 31 plays of at least 20 yards in the first seven games. They allowed the same amount through the first seven games a season ago. The difference is this season they are getting takeaways and coming up with stops. This was a focus of the coaches during the bye week, but the Cowboys allowed four more big plays against the Vikings. It has not hurt them yet, but it could later. — Todd Archer


Previous ranking: 5

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Special-teams inconsistency

Buffalo doesn’t punt often (third fewest in the NFL with 21). But when Matt Haack has been needed, he has been inconsistent, averaging a net of 36.1 yards (second lowest of any team). Only 28.6% of his punts have been taken over inside the 20-yard line. Kicker Tyler Bass has been solid for the Bills this season, and defensive back Siran Neal has been dynamic in kick coverage, but returner Isaiah McKenzie muffed a punt vs. the Dolphins in Week 8 and was bailed out by Jake Kumerow. The inconsistencies on special teams have put the Bills in some dangerous situations. — Alaina Getzenberg


Previous ranking: 8

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Tackling

Lamar Jackson can produce big plays, but he can’t stop them. In Baltimore’s two losses, the Ravens’ pass defense has allowed 15 completions over 20 yards. It’s not because receivers are getting behind the defense. It’s the inability of Baltimore to get receivers on the ground. The Ravens’ poor tackling has led to 1,200 yards allowed after the catch — worst in the NFL. “Until we get that [tackling problem] fixed, we’ll be a very mediocre defense,” coach John Harbaugh said. — Jamison Hensley

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Rex Ryan and Ryan Clark explain how crucial of a loss Derrick Henry’s injury is to the Titans’ season.


Previous ranking: 9

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Kickoff return

Entering training camp, the Titans were excited about having Darrynton Evans make an impact as a kick returner. That never happened as Evans suffered a knee injury and was placed on injured reserve before the season even started. Evans was activated and added to the 53-man roster last month only to end up on injured reserve once again, which ended his season. Chester Rogers, Marcus Johnson, Cameron Batson, Jeremy McNichols and Evans have all gotten a shot to return kicks. Through eight games, the Titans are averaging 17.3 yards per kick return, tying the Dolphins for the worst in the NFL. — Turron Davenport


Previous ranking: 7

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Offensive inconsistency

Cincinnati’s boom-or-bust offense is a problem. The Bengals rank 31st in plays per drive and have the second-highest three-and-out percentage in the league. And yet, Cincinnati is still fourth in touchdowns. But the inability to sustain drives has proved to be a problem, as evidenced by the minus-71 play differential, which is also the second highest in the league. If that trend continues, it will continue to place significant pressure on the defense and leave that side of the ball weary in December, which is when the Bengals are hoping to secure their first playoff berth since 2015. — Ben Baby


Previous ranking: 13

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Passing game

Quarterback is the obvious choice in the wake of Jameis Winston‘s knee injury. But even when he was healthy, the Saints’ lack of proven WR and TE targets was a glaring problem. They rank 31st in the NFL in passing yards per game (180.9) and completion percentage (58.8) — and dead last in receptions by WRs (7.9 per game) and receptions by TEs (2.4 per game). Needless to say, they’re eagerly awaiting Michael Thomas‘ return from an ankle injury. — Mike Triplett


Previous ranking: 11

Biggest Achilles’ heel: The constantly reshuffled offensive line

Derek Carr‘s personal protectors of LT Kolton Miller, LG John Simpson, C Andre James, RG Alex Leatherwood and RT Brandon Parker have kept the Raiders QB upright and clean without a sack the past six quarters. But the reshuffled O-line is just that — constantly in flux and a work in progress. The bye week should have helped with nagging injuries, and veteran left guard Richie Incognito, who has not practiced since injuring his right calf in a joint practice with the Rams on Aug. 19, could potentially start practicing this week. — Paul Gutierrez


Previous ranking: 10

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Lack of consistency on offense

Never thought I’d write this, not with Justin Herbert at QB and the number of top receivers the Chargers have, but they have struggled at times, especially this past Sunday against the Patriots. Herbert threw two interceptions against the Pats (one of which was returned for a pick-six), which gives him six on the year. He had just 10 as a rookie. He hasn’t been helped by his receivers, because of either drops (running back Austin Ekeler) or running the wrong routes (tight end Jared Cook). Worse yet, the Chargers have put themselves in tough third-down situations due to inconsistent play on first and second down. — Shelley Smith

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Ryan Clark breaks down Mac Jones’ play in the Patriots Week 8 win over the Chargers.


Previous ranking: 18

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Cornerback

After trading Stephon Gilmore and placing top slot Jonathan Jones on injured reserve, the Patriots are thin at cornerback. J.C. Jackson and Jalen Mills are the starters — with opponents often attacking Mills, as the Chargers did on their late TD on Sunday — and practice-squad call-up Myles Bryant is the top slot option. Joejuan Williams and Shaun Wade are next on the CB depth chart. Chargers coach Brandon Staley made the point that the Patriots played more zone than man Sunday, in part because of their short-handed situation. — Mike Reiss


Previous ranking: 15

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Vertical passing attack

The Steelers are slowly developing into a balanced offense as their run game emerges, but their biggest weakness is obvious: the vertical passing attack, particularly over the middle. Against the Browns, Ben Roethlisberger attempted just three passes of more than 20 air yards and only one between the numbers. Each fell incomplete. Roethlisberger has completed just 25.5% of deep passes since 2020, down from 30.5% between 2016 and 2019, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Relying too heavily on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage risks a one-dimensional attack. A bolstered run game and offensive line will divert just enough to attention to open up more efficient, vertical options — especially in crunch time. — Brooke Pryor


Previous ranking: 14

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Pass rush

The Chiefs had a league-low eight sacks and a feeble pass rush win rate of 35.2% heading into Monday night’s game against the Giants. There’s no mystery why opposing quarterbacks had a 61.4 QBR against them. It’s difficult to see any hope that the defense will make significant improvement unless these numbers improve. The Chiefs were getting little from Chris Jones and Frank Clark, two of the highest-paid players on their roster. The two combined for two sacks, with Clark contributing zero going into the Giants game. — Adam Teicher


Previous ranking: 12

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Passing attack

The Browns’ passing attack has fallen off a cliff, and it’s not just due to the injuries — even if they have been a major factor. Baker Mayfield, battling the torn labrum to his non-throwing shoulder, has been up and down, but he isn’t getting much help from his highly paid star receivers, either. Jarvis Landry had multiple drops late in the fourth quarter in the loss to Pittsburgh, along with a key fumble. Odell Beckham Jr., meanwhile, has become a total nonfactor. Cleveland’s passing game last season gradually got better. This season, it seems to be getting worse. — Jake Trotter


Previous ranking: 20

Biggest Achilles’ heel: The turnover battle

There are plenty of things we could discuss here, but let’s keep it simple: The Niners are minus-6 in turnover differential, which is fourth worst in the NFL through the first eight weeks. This is actually the perfect choice because it points to deficiencies on both sides of the ball and it’s the single stat that most correlates to winning. The offense has 11 giveaways, the defense has just five takeaways and the Niners have been on the positive side of this stat just once in seven games. Given that, it’s no surprise that San Francisco sits at 3-4 right now. — Nick Wagoner


Previous ranking: 21

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Offense

The Broncos currently reside in a points-scoring neighborhood where they’ve spent the past six seasons. They are one of 10 teams averaging fewer than 20 points per game this season, and of those 10 teams, only the Broncos (4-4) and the Steelers (4-3) do not have losing records. In short, that’s not where a legitimate playoff hopeful finds itself. The Broncos haven’t averaged more than 21 points a game in any of the previous four years and haven’t averaged more than 23 points per game since 2014. — Jeff Legwold


Previous ranking: 17

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Offense

A seven-game sample size reveals the Vikings’ offense is not cut out for the modern NFL. Minnesota has routinely come out of the gates swinging and scoring on its first possession, but the offense has disappeared after that to the tune of no second-half touchdowns in five of seven games. In a loss to Dallas, the game plan turned quarterback Kirk Cousins into a predictable checkdown machine whose average depth of target was 4.5 yards and totaled a measly 184 yards passing. This unit went from explosive to dull and conservative in a year’s time and has evolved into Minnesota’s chief downfall this season. — Courtney Cronin


Previous ranking: 24

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Pass protection

The offensive line proved it could run block, paving the way for Carolina to rush for a season-high 203 yards on 47 attempts in Sunday’s win at Atlanta. That kept the Falcons from loading up against the pass as teams did the past four weeks, collecting 15 sacks against Sam Darnold during that span. But teams will load the box and force the Panthers to pass, and the line remains vulnerable. — David Newton


Previous ranking: 23

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Not having QB Russell Wilson

On Sunday, Geno Smith played his best game since Wilson went down in Week 5 with his finger injury. But when Smith replaced Wilson in that game and in his next two starts, Seattle’s offense only functioned in spurts and didn’t have the finishing touch it has under Wilson. Smith and the Seahawks were dominant against the one-win Jaguars, but with tougher games ahead — at Green Bay following this week’s bye, then at home vs. Arizona — the Seahawks will have to be better finishers than they’ve been so far. And with no guarantee that Wilson will be back for the Packers game, they might need Smith at quarterback. — Brady Henderson

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Stephen A. Smith is fed up with Carson Wentz and says that he is holding back the Colts.


Previous ranking: 16

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Pass rush

For as good as Colts GM Chris Ballard has been in selecting some talent in the draft — RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr., LB Darius Leonard and G Quenton Nelson — he has struggled mightily in finding pass-rushers. The Colts are tied for 16th in the NFL in sacks with 17. To put things in perspective, the Colts are tied for the league lead in takeaways with 18. — Mike Wells


Previous ranking: 22

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Offense

The Bears’ defense collapsed in last Sunday’s loss to the 49ers, but Chicago’s offense has been its biggest Achilles’ heel throughout the season. The Bears rank at the bottom or near the bottom of almost every major offensive category, including points per game and yards per game. It really says something when scoring 22 points — as the Bears did versus San Francisco — is considered an offensive explosion. The Bears’ offense played a little better in Week 8, but it’s nowhere close to good enough. — Jeff Dickerson


Previous ranking: 25

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Inexperience

Nick Sirianni is a first-year head coach surrounded by the youngest coaching staff in the NFL. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has started 12 games in the NFL and doesn’t have a primary wide receiver over 23 years old. The result is inconsistency in both game plan and performance. The Eagles have beaten a pair of teams by 26-plus points and have also been manhandled at times. You never know what you’re going to get. — Tim McManus


Previous ranking: 19

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Pass rush

There are a lot of issues with the Falcons at the moment, but the team has had very little pass rush throughout the season — particularly with Dante Fowler Jr. on injured reserve. No Falcons player has more than two sacks (Fowler, Deion Jones and Jacob Tuioti-Mariner) and more critical, only two Falcons have more than five quarterback hits — Grady Jarrett with six and Foyesade Oluokun with five. Pressure is sometimes worth sending only if the players can get there, and that’s been a problem for Atlanta, but it also alters the entirety of what the Falcons can and can’t do on defense. — Michael Rothstein


Previous ranking: 27

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Pass rush

Forget about sacks. The Giants’ defense can’t even get consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks without a high-end edge rusher. The team entered Monday night 24th in the NFL with a 25.2% pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It has prevented this defense from repeating its success from last season and is the Giants’ biggest weakness. — Jordan Raanan


Previous ranking: 26

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Pass coverage

Washington is tied for 29th in the NFL with seven passing touchdowns of 20 or more yards, and most of those stem from a secondary not in synch with its reads, leading to blown coverages. It ranks 26th in yards allowed per pass attempt and last in the NFL in third-down conversions at 56.5% — a lot of which is the result of opposing quarterbacks having completed 70.6% of their passes vs. Washington on third down. No defense has allowed a worse number. This isn’t just on the secondary, though. The corners have not played as well as anticipated, and the linebackers have blown their share of assignments, too. And the pass rush must be better. — John Keim


Previous ranking: 30

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Quarterback inexperience

It might seem like an odd time to single this out, considering Mike White just passed for 405 yards and three touchdowns, but it doesn’t change the fact that White and Zach Wilson have only seven combined starts in their careers. The Jets have a league-high 13 interceptions, in large part because of their inexperience. There will be good days and bad days, depending on the quality of the opponent and style of defense. There’s nothing the Jets can do to change it; they just have to ride this out, hoping it pays long-term dividends. — Rich Cimini


Previous ranking: 29

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Pass defense

The Jaguars have given up more than 300 yards passing four times in seven games (Teddy Bridgewater, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa) and they’re allowing opposing QBs to complete 74% of their passes — the second-highest completion percentage in the league. QBs are also averaging 8.94 yards per attempt against Jacksonville (the second-highest mark) and have a Total QBR of 64.2, the highest in the NFL. — Mike DiRocco


Previous ranking: 28

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Offensive inefficiency

This is a question with about a dozen different answers, but Miami’s struggles on offense stand out. The Dolphins rank 30th in yards per game, 31st in yards per play and 28th in scoring. In almost unbelievable fashion, Miami attempts the fourth-most passes per game yet still ranks 25th in passing yards. As Sunday’s loss to the Bills proved, Miami is still capable of playing good defense — but without an offense that can carry its own weight, the Dolphins won’t win many more games. — Marcel Louis-Jacques


Previous ranking: 31

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Running game

It’s hard to pick just one category for a 1-7 team, but one area the Texans have struggled in all season — and not because of injury — is running the ball. Houston ranks dead last in Football Outsider‘s rush DVOA and is averaging 76.1 rushing yards per game. Now that Houston has traded lead back Mark Ingram II, it has four running backs: veterans David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay and Rex Burkhead and second-year pro Scottie Phillips. After Ingram was traded, it was Burkhead who led the way in Sunday’s loss to the Rams — but the group was still held to 44 yards on 14 carries. — Sarah Barshop


Previous ranking: 32

Biggest Achilles’ heel: Offense

Following a 44-6 loss to the Eagles on Halloween, the Lions fell to 0-8 for the first time since the infamous 0-16 season. Coach Dan Campbell acknowledged that the offense looked “very anemic,” which has been the case all season. The Lions rank near the bottom of nearly every offensive category, notably offensive efficiency and points scored. Jared Goff has suffered 11 consecutive losses, including the playoffs, which is the longest active streak for any quarterback. Tight end T.J. Hockenson feels that the offense hasn’t been able to overcome self-inflicted wounds such as penalties and mistakes in critical moments. “That’s what good offenses do is be able to keep moving the ball and overcome mistakes that you make on yourself,” Hockenson said. — Eric Woodyard

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Branch Bros. commit to Georgia after USC exit

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Branch Bros. commit to Georgia after USC exit

Former USC wide receiver Zachariah Branch and safety Zion Branch have committed to Georgia, the brothers told ESPN on Sunday.

The brothers are former top-100 recruits who loom as significant additions for the Bulldogs in 2025. They both have two seasons of eligibility remaining.

Zachariah Branch is the No. 9 overall player and No. 4 wide receiver in ESPN’s transfer portal rankings. He earned first-team All-American honors in 2023 while emerging as one of the most electric players in college football.

“I chose Georgia because I felt like the culture was something special,” Zachariah Branch told ESPN. “They have a great coaching staff, the brotherhood within the program, their will to win, being prepared for the next level and being as successful as possible on and off the field was important to me.”

Zachariah Branch can boost a Georgia receiving room that was beset this season by off-field issues and inconsistent play. Georgia led the country with 36 wide receiver drops, per ESPN Research.

“I see their potential as a contender for the national championship and to defend their SEC title in 2025,” Zachariah Branch said.

He accounted for 1,863 all-purpose yards during his two seasons at USC, including two kicks returned for touchdowns in 2023. As a receiver he caught 78 passes for 823 yards and three touchdowns. He tied for the team lead in receptions this season with 47. He rushed for 87 yards and another touchdown during his two seasons in coach Lincoln Riley’s offense.

Zion Branch played in all 12 games for USC as a redshirt sophomore safety this season, recording 19 tackles, 3 pass breakups and 1 sack in a reserve role. He’s the older of the two brothers and dealt with season-ending injuries in both 2022 and 2023.

“I chose the University of Georgia because of its great coaching staff, their pedigree, and the history of the program,” Zion Branch told ESPN. “Georgia has consistently been one of the best programs in college football, and the culture of excellence they’ve built is something I want to be a part of. The coaches are not just about winning games; they’re about building character, fostering growth and pushing players to be their absolute best both on and off the field.”

The brothers joined the Trojans after starring at Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas. Zachariah was the No. 7 overall recruit in the ESPN 300 for 2023, and Zion was No. 76 in 2022.

The Georgia receiving room was full of steady players but with no true standout; nobody finished in the SEC’s top 10 for receiving yards. Senior Arian Smith, who accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl but still has a season of eligibility left, led the Bulldogs with 817 yards. Receiver/punt returner Anthony Evans III entered the transfer portal, and Dominic Lovett, who is out of eligibility, led the team with 59 catches.

Zachariah Branch offers rare dynamism and downfield speed that will make him a candidate to be Georgia’s top target in 2025. He scored just one touchdown for USC in 2024 after scoring five as a true freshman — two in the return game, two receiving and one rushing.

The brothers see themselves as contributors toward the program’s bigger goals.

“This team is poised to do something truly special — competing for championships and setting a standard of excellence that few can match,” Zion Branch said. “With the talent that’s already there and the elite-level recruits coming in, the future is incredibly bright. I have no doubt Georgia will not only win a lot of games but also continue to lead the nation in innovation and performance on the field.”

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FCS title game preview: Can North Dakota State knock off undefeated Montana State?

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FCS title game preview: Can North Dakota State knock off undefeated Montana State?

On Dec. 15, 1984, Montana State completed a worst-to-first run for the ages. One season after going 1-10, Dave Arnold’s Bobcats began the season 2-2 but caught fire offensively, beat a top-10 Boise State team in October and even upset Fresno State 35-31 late in the season. They charged into the 12-team playoff with the No. 3 seed, beat Arkansas State and Rhode Island by a combined 29 points, then unleashed hell on Louisiana Tech in the title game. Quarterback Kelly Bradley threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, Tech didn’t score until the final minute of the game, and MSU cruised 19-6.

Montana State has been chasing that title feeling for 40 years. And Monday night in Frisco, Texas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN), the Bobcats have their best chance yet of earning a second ring. All that’s left is to defeat FCS’ ultimate final boss.

After ceding control of FCS to rival South Dakota State for a couple of years, North Dakota State defeated the Jackrabbits twice in 2024; the Bison are back in the final for the 11th time in 14 years. They knocked Montana State out of the playoffs in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023, and after winning eight of nine titles between 2011 and 2019, they’re looking for their second title of the 2020s.

Will we see another North Dakota State coronation or will Montana State conjure the spirit of 1984?

How they got here

Record: 15-0

SP+ rankings: first overall, first on offense, second on defense

Key regular-season results: def. New Mexico 35-31, def. Idaho 38-7, def. UC Davis 30-28, def. Montana 34-11

Playoff run: def. UT Martin 49-17, def. No. 8 Idaho 52-19, def. No. 4 South Dakota 31-17

Defeating FCS royalty comes with its own set of challenges, but there should be no doubting who the best team in FCS has been through 15 games. Montana State has been devastating from start to finish. Despite handing New Mexico a pair of defensive touchdowns, the Bobcats still overcame the FBS Lobos, dominating statistically (total yards: 567-324) and scoring 21 fourth-quarter points to win their season opener.

They’ve barely wobbled since. Their only tight game to date against an FCS opponent was only sort of tight: On Nov. 16, they went on a 30-0 run to take a commanding lead at eventual quarterfinalist UC Davis before the Aggies scored three late touchdowns (thanks in part to an onside kick recovery) to make it close. No one has had the ball with a chance to take a late lead on MSU since the New Mexico game. South Dakota played an awesome game against the Bobcats in the semifinals and still couldn’t get closer than 14 points down the stretch.

Record: 13-2

SP+ rankings: third overall, second on offense, fifth on defense

Key regular-season results: lost to Colorado 31-26, def. North Dakota 41-17, def. South Dakota State 13-9, def. Missouri State 59-21, lost to South Dakota 29-28

Playoff run: def. Abilene Christian 51-31, def. No. 7 Mercer 31-7, def. No. 3 South Dakota State 28-21

NDSU took on a tougher schedule and came within six points of an unbeaten record. The Bison led Colorado at halftime but couldn’t quite overcome a pair of Travis Hunter touchdowns in the second half, falling 4 yards short on a game-ending Hail Mary.

They had to survive an early 38-35 thriller against East Tennessee State, recovering an onside kick and scoring twice in the last two minutes, but once the defense found its rhythm, NDSU started looking like NDSU again. Over their past 11 games, only three have been close: the two wins over South Dakota State and the tight loss at South Dakota.


MSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Tommy Mellott (6-foot-0, 208 lbs., Sr.), RB Scottre Humphrey (5-11, 210, So.), TE Rohan Jones (6-3, 235, Jr.), RG Marcus Wehr (6-4, 300, Sr.), LT Conner Moore (6-5, 310, So.), PR Taco Dowler (5-9, 175, So.)

In his first collegiate game in 2021, he ripped off a 44-yard run. In his fourth, he scored from 74 yards. In his first three playoff games, he threw for 449 yards and rushed for 411 while leading MSU to the national title game.

For most of four years now, Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott has been a unicorn, combining ultra-efficient passing with downright reckless rushing, throwing his 208-pound frame around with abandon and doing whatever it takes to get the job done. He got injured early in the 2021 title game against NDSU, and he has been dinged up at some point basically every year since. But if he’s in the game, he’s probably doing something ridiculous. He has five career 150-yard rushing games (including a 273-yard, three-touchdown performance against Weber State in 2022), and he has five career 225-yard passing games (including a 300-yard, four-touchdown performance against UT Martin in the second round of this year’s playoffs).

In 2024, Mellott and his supporting cast have produced the most brilliant offense in FCS. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for 2,494 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, with Mellott chipping in 915 yards and 14 more scores in less than eight carries per game. Meanwhile, Mellott has completed 69% of his passes at 13.5 yards per completion with a downright unfair 29-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. He doesn’t have a go-to receiver — he has three: Wideouts Taco Dowler (also an ace punt returner) and Ty McCullouch and tight end Rohan Jones have combined for 100 catches, 1,494 yards and 23 scores.

A case could be made that elite line play was the last piece of the puzzle in head coach Brent Vigen’s four-year building project — it’s where the Bobcats most noticeably were lacking in their first few meetings against NDSU and SDSU. But despite starting three sophomores up front, the Bobcats boast an abundance of both talent and raw size up front, averaging 6-4, 305 pounds across the line with a pair of first-team all-Big Sky performers. MSU averages 41.3 points per game and hasn’t been held under 31 all season. It was jarring when South Dakota forced four straight punts in the second half of the semifinals, but it didn’t help all that much since MSU had scored on five of its first six drives.

NDSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: DT Eli Mostaert (6-3, 289, Sr.), LB Logan Kopp (6-1, 220, Jr.)

NDSU’s defense took a little while to shift into gear in 2024. Including the loss to Colorado and the near-upset against ETSU, the Bison allowed at least 24 points and at least 367 yards in three of their first four games. But in the 11 games since, they’ve allowed only 15.7 points and 299.1 yards per game despite playing over half their games in that span against playoff teams.

Veteran linemen Eli Mostaert, Loshiaka Roques and Kody Huisman have combined for 24 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks and 12 QB hurries up front (Huisman also has blocked two kicks), and linebacker Logan Kopp is the prototypical tackling machine. But as has been customary over the last 15 years or so, the Bison’s biggest strength is depth. Nine NDSU defenders have recorded at least four tackles for loss, nine have at least two sacks, 12 have defended (intercepted or broken up) at least three passes, 13 have forced a fumble and 14 have recovered one. MSU has the best offense they’ve faced, but in two games against SDSU (No. 3 in offensive SP+) the Bison allowed an average of just 333 yards and 19 points. They aren’t likely to give up too many easy yards, even to Mellott & Co.


A mistake-free Bison attack

NDSU offense, first-team all-conference selections: QB Cam Miller (6-1, 212, Sr.), WR Bryce Lance (6-3, 204, Jr.), RT Mason Miller (6-7, 305, Sr.), LT Grey Zabel (6-6, 305, Sr.)

The bar is high in Fargo, and compared to the absurd talent that has rolled through town over the past 15 years, this NDSU offense is not the most explosive this FCS dynasty has produced. Backs CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu have combined for 1,825 yards and 21 touchdowns, but they average just 5.1 yards per carry — good but not elite. Cam Miller has thrown for 3,052 yards and 31 TDs, but his 12.8 yards per completion is less than you’d expect.

The Bison can still ground teams down with mistake-free efficiency, however. They convert 54% of their third downs and 68% of their fourth downs, and you just can’t take the ball away from them: They’ve committed an FCS-low six turnovers in 15 games. (Granted, there’s some luck involved in that — they’ve lost only one of 10 fumbles. But 10 fumbles in 15 games is minimal too.) The line is still huge, averaging 6-5 and 304 pounds, the backs are still hard to bring down (Brown and Kpeenu are 214 and 209 pounds, respectively), and if your safeties bite on a run fake, they can still go deep with breakout star wideout Bryce Lance (964 yards, 16 TDs), whose unreal, one-handed grab sent NDSU to the title game.

While Miller’s upside probably doesn’t match that of Carson Wentz or Trey Lance (Bryce’s older brother), there’s nothing you can throw at him that he hasn’t seen before: The reigning Missouri Valley offensive player of the year will play in his 67th career game Monday night.

If you aren’t careful, the Bison will score on you with special teams too. For as good as MSU’s Taco Dowler is in returns, NDSU can get you with either a punt return (Jackson Williams: 10.8 yards per return and one TD) or a kick return (Williams and TK Marshall: 29.9 yards per return and two scores).

MSU defense, first-team all-conference selections: Edge Brody Grebe (6-3, 250, Sr.), LB McCade O’Reilly (6-0, 220, Sr.), SS Rylan Ortt (6-1, 210, Sr.)

When MSU got mauled by NDSU in the 2021 title game, the Bobcats’ defense had only two players on the depth chart listed at more than 270 pounds. The Bison did what they do against all overmatched foes and road-graded MSU for 380 rushing yards.

MSU still doesn’t exactly have Georgia’s mammoth defensive front, but the 2024 Bobcats are bigger than they were in 2021. Starting tackles Paul Brott and Alec Eckert are listed at 290 and 280 pounds, respectively, and Brody Grebe is a sturdy 250 at end. New Mexico averaged 262.8 rushing yards per game against FBS opponents but managed only 152 against MSU, and only Eastern Washington topped 152 on the Bobcats.

To move the ball on them, teams typically have to do it through the air. UC Davis’ Miles Hastings, Idaho’s Jack Layne and South Dakota’s Aidan Bouman combined to go 62-for-92 for 795 yards, 5 TDs and 2 interceptions against the Bobcats, and while a lot of that yardage came when these opponents were down double digits, it’s still solid work. Of course, it also came with a cost: MSU sacked those three quarterbacks 10 times. Led by ends Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV (combined: 16.5 sacks) and linebackers McCade O’Reilly and Neil Daily (combined: 15 TFLs), the Bobcats have recorded 36 sacks among 85 TFLs this season. You might be able to hit them for a big play here and there, but only if you get them before they get you.


Projecting the title game

MSU’s Brent Vigen and NDSU’s Tim Polasek both earned their figurative coaching degrees at the University of Craig Bohl — Vigen coached for Bohl at NDSU from 2003-13 and at Wyoming from 2014-20 (mostly as offensive coordinator), while Polasek joined Bohl’s NDSU staff in 2006, stayed in Fargo until 2016 and rejoined Bohl at Wyoming after a stint as Iowa’s offensive line coach. The paths of these two coaches have crossed constantly. So, too, have the paths of these teams, and every time they’ve met in the playoffs, NDSU has prevailed.

Vigen is 47-9 in four seasons at Montana State: 1-2 against FBS teams, 2-2 against rival Montana, 1-4 against NDSU and SDSU and 43-1 against everyone else. He and his Bobcats have been building toward this exact run for a while, and it feels like this is their time to break through. It wouldn’t be a surprise, however, if North Dakota State wrecked the Bobcats’ plans — it’s what dynasties do, after all.

Three years ago, MSU wasn’t quite ready. Mellott got hurt, the Bobcats had no chance of stopping the NDSU run game, and Miller and the Bison rolled. It might be a different story this time around.

ESPN Bet projection: MSU 30.0, NDSU 26.5 (MSU -3.5, over/under 56.5) | SP+ projection: MSU 30.2, NDSU 26.7

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QB recruit back to Cal after portal flip from Ducks

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QB recruit back to Cal after portal flip from Ducks

Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who first committed to Cal in July before his Dec. 4 flip to Oregon, has signed with Golden Bears, he told ESPN on Sunday, after entering the NCAA transfer portal over the weekend.

Sagapolutele becomes the top-ranked member of the Bears’ 2025 recruiting class. The No. 1 prospect from Hawai’i and ESPN’s No. 18 pocket passer will be eligible to play immediately next fall. His decision marks the latest twist in a dramatic cycle for the talented 2025 high school quarterback class, as well as a significant recruiting win for Cal coach Justin Wilcox.

Sagapolutele’s move comes just 32 days after he spurned the Bears and signed with the Ducks’ top-ranked class during the early signing period. He enrolled at Oregon last month and joined the program for its Rose Bowl preparations, even standing on the sideline during the Ducks’ loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal on Jan. 1.

Sagapolutele, who placed a heavy emphasis on early opportunity and development throughout his recruitment, told ESPN that the bowl season experience with Oregon gave him a view of the Ducks’ future outlook at quarterback. With 2024 starter Dillon Gabriel out of eligibility, the Ducks are expected to lean on Dante Moore and Austin Novosad next fall. Behind them, 2025 quarterback signee Akili Smith Jr. (No. 87 in the ESPN 300) is also set to arrive on campus this month as an early enrollee after participating in practices during bowl season.

As Sagapolutele’s confidence over his future at Oregon wavered, he found a pathway back to Cal. Given his December enrollment, he was permitted to use the transfer portal in the five-day window granted to Ducks players following the Rose Bowl defeat, formally entering the transfer portal Saturday.

“I just felt that there was another school in particular that was right for me,” Sagapolutele told ESPN. “I’m excited to be a priority over there and to get to work. I’m ready to see what God has in store for me at Cal.”

Sagapolutele capped his career at Campbell (Hawai’i) High School with 3,404 yards, 46 touchdowns and just three interceptions this season, surpassing Gabriel as the state’s all-time passing leader with 10,653 yards. With his return to the Bears, Sagapolutele can expect a much clearer path to contend for early snaps under center.

After former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza‘s offseason transfer to Indiana and the graduation of veteran Chandler Rogers, the Bears are thin at the quarterback position heading into 2025. While Cal is expected to remain active in the transfer passer market this cycle, Sagapolutele will have a chance to compete immediately in a position room that currently holds just 13 games of college experience between returners CJ Harris and EJ Caminong.

Wilcox and the Bears were among the earliest Power 4 programs to recruit Sagapolutele, a late riser in the 2025 class whose stock soared after an impressive performance at the 2024 Elite 11 Finals in June. That early investment paid off over the summer when Sagapolutele committed to Cal over finalists Oregon State, Boise State and Utah State.

The Bears, however, struggled to hold off late recruiting pushes from Georgia and Oregon in the fall after both schools offered Sagapolutele following the start of his senior season.

Sagapolutele left his October visit with the Ducks blown away by the offense under coordinator Will Stein and encouraged by the time he spent with Gabriel, a fellow Hawaiian who coached Sagapolutele during the Elite 11 event last year. Sagapolutele ultimately canceled a pair of scheduled November visits to Georgia, but he gave the Bulldogs strong consideration before pulling his pledge from Cal and joining the Ducks’ latest stockpile of high school talent.

Sagapolutele said the connection that he developed with Cal’s coaching staff never faded. As he experienced a change of heart with the Ducks, it was Sagapolutele’s relationships with Wilcox, Bears offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch and quarterbacks coach Sterlin Gilbert that pulled him back to Cal, stamping a critical victory for a Bears recruiting class that ranked 65th by ESPN.

“It’s the right environment for me,” Sagapolutele said. “Coach Gilbert is going to develop me and it’s a place where I’m going to be able to go in and compete early on.”

Sagapolutele’s move comes in a cycle that saw nine of ESPN’s top 16 quarterback prospects flip their pledges.

While Sagapolutele’s move through the transfer portal before ever playing a college game represents a feature unique to this modern age of college football, it is not entirely unprecedented. He follows 2024 five-star passer Julian Sayin, who transferred from Alabama to Ohio State last year following Nick Saban’s retirement, as the second high-profile quarterback prospect in as many cycles to enroll with a school in December before entering the transfer portal just weeks later.

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