Brexit is done, and for many, there’s genuine relief it’s over.
But ongoing disagreements and post-treaty disputes are having real world costs to businesses who say they feel let down and misled by the Brexit process.
The row over fishing rights and the threat of retaliatory action from the French have already cost one oyster producer in Kent tens of thousands of pounds worth of business.
Meanwhile, Sky News has learned that the Department for Transport has asked a Kent lorry park that is due to close shortly, to stay open for a few months longer over Christmas to help with anticipated extra pressure on an already strained supply chain.
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2:41
France postpones sanctions over fishing row
“There are only so many hits, so many body punches you can take as a business and get back up and start again,” says James Green, director of The Whitstable Oyster Company.
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Mr Green’s business is based in the picturesque north Kent town, famous for its oysters.
It has farmed oysters for generations and is responsible for about a third of the UK’s entire production.
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But Brexit has already cost them dearly. New rules mean he can no longer export fully-grown market-sized oysters to France – those exports had accounted for around 50% of his orders, and that disappeared overnight.
Image: James Green voted for Brexit but says he feels misled
He moved his focus to building up the domestic market, an encouraging albeit slow process, and continuing to export juvenile oysters to France.
This is still allowed because the juveniles are put back in the sea off the coast of France, to be harvested later by his buyers.
But last week as the post-Brexit fishing row intensified, French threats set him back further.
In a disagreement over how many licenses have been granted to French trawlers operating in British waters, France’s president Emmanuel Macron set an ultimatum, demanding the UK grant more or face retaliatory measures including British boats being banned from landing their catch in France and increased customs checks on exported British goods.
Such tightened restrictions might have included the removal of veterinary checks in France that are necessary for James to sell his oysters there. His buyers got nervous and cancelled orders – he lost roughly £25,000 worth in just a few days.
Image: Mr Green’s business is based in the picturesque north Kent town of Whitstable
“With farms you can’t stop, you’ve got to continue otherwise the stock becomes unsellable,” he said.
“There are quite a lot of costs involved in continuing that process, so it’s frustrating.
“Coupled with COVID, coupled with Brexit, coupled with water quality from Southern Water, this is the fourth thing in the space of less than a year that has had a massive impact on our industry.
“You can’t just take away that main market overnight and expect these businesses to continue because they’re just not.”
Image: Whitstable is famous for its oysters
Mr Green voted for Brexit in 2016, and said fishing rights were his key motivator. But the reality has not been as he was promised, and he said repeated reassurances that his exports would not be affected now feel misleading.
“I think the deal we got was very, very poor, very poor,” he said. “So I probably would change my vote, if I’m honest.”
The threats from France were deferred this week, paving the way for talks between Lord Frost, the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator and France’s Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clément Beaune.
Under the Brexit deal, French trawlermen who had traditionally fished between six and 12 miles off the coast of the UK would be allowed to continue to do so as long as they could provide proof they had fished there every year since 2016.
While the French have said that too few licenses have been granted, the British have said that those not approved have not provided sufficient evidence.
But despite all the smiles and handshakes for the cameras, positions on both sides are still entrenched and no significant progress was made.
The context this side of the Channel is not just businesses suffering, but a supply chain already stacked up.
Some say a system still grappling with global delays and a shortage of lorry drivers can’t cope with much more pressure.
Image: Mr Green’s business has farmed oysters for generations
Any further delays or customs checks at ports may well be seen and felt in lorry parks across Kent.
Sky News has learnt that the Department for Transport has asked one such site, Ashford International Truck Stop that was due to close shortly in favour of a new bigger site next door, to remain open for a few extra months over Christmas.
A sense perhaps that preparations are being made for extra seasonal pressure.
On the other side of the Channel there is another side to this story.
Image: New rules mean Mr Green can no longer export fully-grown market-sized oysters to France
Laurent Merlin fishes for crab from Boulogne sur Mer. He has been fishing in British waters since the 1990s and his father did the same for years before him. But he hasn’t been granted a license yet and he’s getting desperate.
“It’s frustrating because it has now been 10 months that we’ve been waiting,” he said.
“If we get nothing, we will have to react. If we don’t we won’t be able to continue. French waters have been overfished, there are no fish left there.”
Officials will talk again in the coming days and while they’re talking, threats are unlikely to be actioned.
On different sides of these waters there’s different sides to this story, but ongoing disputes are costing.
Food inflation has hit its highest level in almost a year and could continue to go up, according to an industry body.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported a 2.6% annual lift in food costs during April – the highest level since May last year and up from a 2.4% rate the previous month.
The body said there was a clear risk of further increases ahead due to rising costs, with the sector facing £7bn of tax increases this year due to the budget last October.
It warned that shoppers risked paying a higher price – but separate industry figures suggested any immediate blows were being cushioned by the effects of a continuing supermarket price war.
Kantar Worldpanel, which tracks trends and prices, said spending on promotions reached its highest level this year at almost 30% of total sales over the four weeks to 20 April.
It said that price cuts, mainly through loyalty cards, helped people to make the most of the Easter holiday with almost 20% of items sold at respective market leaders Tesco and Sainsbury’s on a price match.
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Its measure of wider grocery inflation rose to 3.8%, however.
Wider BRC data showed overall shop price inflation at -0.1% over the 12 months to April, with discounting largely responsible for weaker non-food goods.
But its chief executive, Helen Dickinson, said retailers were “unable to absorb” the surge in costs they were facing.
“The days of shop price deflation look numbered,” she said, as food inflation rose to its highest in 11 months, and non-food deflation eased significantly.
“Everyday essentials including bread, meat, and fish, all increased prices on the month. This comes in the same month retailers face a mountain of new employment costs in the form of higher employer National Insurance Contributions and increased NLW [national living wage],” she added.
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Five hacks to beat rising bills
While retail sales growth has proved somewhat resilient this year, it is believed big rises to household bills in April – from things like inflation-busting water, energy and council tax bills – will bite and continue to keep a lid on major purchases.
Also pressing on both consumer and business sentiment is Donald Trump’s trade war – threatening further costs and hits to economic growth ahead.
A further BRC survey, also published on Tuesday, showed more than half of human resources directors expect to reduce hiring due to the government’s planned Employment Rights Bill.
The bill, which proposes protections for millions of workers including guaranteed minimum hours, greater hurdles for sacking new staff and increased sick pay, is currently being debated in parliament.
The BRC said one of the biggest concerns was that guaranteed minimum hours rules would hit part-time roles.
On the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City, factory workers at Dony Garment have been working overtime for weeks.
Ever since Donald Trump announced a whopping 46% trade tariff on Vietnam, they’ve been preparing for the worst.
They’re rushing through orders to clients in three separate states in America.
Sewing machines buzz with the sound of frantic efforts to do whatever they can before Mr Trump’s big decision day. He may have put his “Liberation Day” tariffs on pause for 90 days, but no one in this factory is taking anything for granted.
Image: Staff have been working overtime
Workers like Do Thi Anh are feeling the pressure.
“I have two children to raise. If the tariffs are too high, the US will buy fewer things. I’ll earn less money and I won’t be able to support my children either. Luckily here our boss has a good vision,” she tells me.
Image: Do Thi Anh
That vision was crafted back in 2021. When COVID struck, they started to look at diversifying their market.
Previously they used to export 40% of their garments to America. Now it’s closer to 20%.
The cheery-looking owner of the firm, Pham Quang Anh, tells me with a resilient smile: “We see it as dangerous to depend on one or two markets. So, we had to lose profit and spend on marketing for other markets.”
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That foresight could pay off in the months to come. But others are in a far more vulnerable state.
Some of Mr Pham’s colleagues in the industry export all their garments to America. If the 46% tariff is enforced, it could destroy their businesses.
Down by the Saigon River, young couples watch on as sunset falls between the glimmering skyscrapers that stand as a testament to Vietnam’s miracle growth.
Image: Cuong works in finance
Cuong, an affluent-looking man who works in finance, questions the logic and likelihood that America will start making what Vietnam has spent years developing the labour, skills and supply chains to reliably deliver.
“The United States’ GDP is so high. It’s the largest in the world right now. What’s the point in trying to get jobs from developing countries like Vietnam and other Asian nations? It’s unnecessary,” he tells me.
But the Trump administration claims China is using Vietnam to illegally circumvent tariffs, putting “Made in Vietnam” labels on Chinese products.
There’s no easy way to assess that claim. But market watchers believe Vietnam does need to signal its willingness to crack down on so-called “trans-shipments” if it wants to cut a deal with Washington.
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The US may also demand a major cutback in Chinese manufacturing in Vietnam.
That will be a much harder deal to strike. Vietnam can’t afford to alienate its big brother.
Image: Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam
Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam, is however cautiously optimistic.
“If Vietnam goes into these trade talks saying we will be a reliable manufacturer of the core products you need and the core products America wants to sell, the outcome could be good,” he says.
But the key question is just how much influence China will have on Vietnamese negotiators.
Anything above 10-20% tariffs would be intensively challenging
This moment is a huge test of Vietnam’s resilience.
Anything like 46% tariffs would be ruinous. Analysts say 10-20% would be survivable. Anything above, intensely challenging.
But this looming threat is also an opportunity for Vietnam to negotiate and grow. Not, though, without some very testing concessions.
Trade talks between the UK and the United States are “moving in a very positive way”, according to the White House.
President Donald Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt spoke about the likelihood of the long-discussed agreement during a press briefing.
In Westminster, there are hopes such a deal could soften the impact of the Trump tariffs announced last month.
Leavitt told reporters: “As for the trade talks, I understand they are moving in a very positive way with the UK.
“I don’t want to get ahead of the president or our trade team in how those negotiations are going, but I have heard they have been very positive and productive with the UK.”
She said Mr Trump always “speaks incredibly highly” of the UK.
“He has a good relationship with your prime minister, though they disagree on domestic policy issues,” she added.
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“I have witnessed the camaraderie between them first hand in the Oval Office, and there is a deep mutual respect between our two countries that certainly the president upholds.”
Image: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said she was positive about a deal. Pic: AP
He was careful to not get ahead of developments, however, saying: “I think an agreement is possible – I don’t think it’s certain, and I don’t want to say it’s certain, but I think it’s possible.”
He went on to say the government wanted an “agreement in the UK’s interests” and not a “hasty deal”, amid fears from critics that Number 10 could acquiesce a deal that lowers food standards, for example, or changes certain taxes in a bid to persuade Donald Trump to lower some of the tariffs that have been placed on British goods.
Mr McFadden’s tone was more cautious than Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ last week.
She had been in the US and, speaking to Sky News business and economics correspondent Gurpreet Narwan, the chancellor said she was “confident” a deal could be done.
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6:28
‘We’re confident’, says Reeves
But she sought to play down fears that UK standards could be watered down, both on food and online safety.
“On food standards, we’ve always been really clear that we’re not going to be watering down standards in the UK and similarly, we’ve just passed the Online Safety Act and the safety, particularly of our children, is non-negotiable for the British government,” Ms Reeves said.