Hockey betting: First-period wagering, early trends and other tips
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Published
3 years agoon
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adminNHL games can be incredibly entertaining, but let’s be honest: They do require an investment of time. If your wager requires you to wait around until the final score, you can push three hours of investment if the thing goes to a shootout.
That’s why wagers made on the first period of games offer instant gratification and, in many cases, more predictability than wagers made on the full game.
The first period offers the same wagers as other period-specific bets, including:
*Money line: The team that leads after the first period. This bet can end in a tie and your money is returned. Or you can make a wager without a tie factoring in.
*Puck line: Usually plus or minus 0.5 goals.
*Goal total: Usually 1.5 goals total, and the bet is over or under.
*Both teams scoring in the first or not.
*If a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of a game or not.
There are also a series of prop bets involving the number of goals scored and the team that ends up leading after one.
My personal preference is the first-period goal total. First, because I’m an impatient sort when it comes to results. But mostly because the trend lines that are established for first-period scoring tend to remain consistent.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of the most notorious “slow starters” in the NHL so far this season. Through Sunday’s games, the total goals in the Lightning’s first periods have been one goal or fewer in two of their 11 games. They’ve scored only six goals in the first period on the season.
On the flip side are the Edmonton Oilers, who are among the strongest starters in the league this season. In 10 games, the first period over has hit seven times. They lead the league with 15 goals scored in the opening stanza.
“That is the most predictable part of a hockey game,” said Chris Otto, known as @PSUOtto on Twitter. Otto posts regular updates on which NHL teams go over the first-period total and which have a goal scored in the first 10 minutes of games most frequently. (The Vegas Golden Knights, for example, have had a goal scored in the first 10 minutes of nine of their 12 games.)
Otto didn’t even know first-period bets existed until 2019, when he noticed a group of teams were hitting the first-period over at a 90% clip.
“The way in which teams want to start games off something that is driven by the coach, based on their philosophy of the game. It’s quite obvious that some teams want to come out in games with tons of speed and chances, to try and score an early goal to put immediate pressure on their opponents,” he said. “There are other teams that want to slow the game down, knowing they cannot compete with these faster-paced teams over a full 60-minute game. So they’re going to want to start the game slow, eliminate chances and hope that they can get to the third period in a tight game, where they can then take some chances.”
Basically, the first period is how the teams intend to play the game, before variables start to impact game flow and strategy.
“Ultimately, circumstances happen within games sometimes that don’t reflect the model,” Otto said, “but on most occasions, the trends tend to hold with how teams generally want to play the game.”
Experts’ corner (Q&A)
Andy MacNeil had a “quiet and boring existence” growing up in Nova Scotia before heading to Alberta to make money in the oil and gas industry. For the past 10 years, he said, his “interest in hockey has been totally driven by gambling.” He made connections in the industry, the folks at VSiN heard about him through the grapevine and he was hired as a hockey-wagering pundit. He also does occasional work with the New York Post.
We asked Andy some questions about hockey wagering:
What’s your favorite bet on hockey?
MACNEIL: I enjoy betting the money line the most. It’s simple. It’s “who is going to win the game?” and unless otherwise stated, it includes overtime and shootouts. And it’s what got me to where I am, I guess. But it’s not just picking the straight winner of the game. I’m estimating the odds of the game and then I’m trying to find odds that offer value, relative to what they should be. It’s the easiest bet for anyone to make, even if they don’t have a statistical model.
What’s a sucker bet on hockey?
MACNEIL: The goal-scorer props. They’re the most fun bets to make, and don’t get me wrong, you’ll find a good one here or there. They are some of the most attractive bets, but they’re also the ones that are going to suck in people in the most and result in no profit made.
Actually, betting on players not to do things is a good bet to make. It’s going to be super frustrating sometimes, but betting against human achievement is the way to go.
I’m from New Jersey, and I’m not even that cynical.
MACNEIL: Most of these sportsbooks are shading the player props. You’re going to have the top players — and I don’t recommend betting against the top players all the time — shaded towards the over because most people go to the sportsbook to bet on their favorite player to score a goal or to bet on Connor McDavid to score more than 1.5 points.
Do you bet against the shooter in craps, too?
MACNEIL: I specifically stick to hockey. I’m not kidding myself. I’m not super high-IQ genius where they’re going to make movies about me beating the sportsbooks, right? I’m just trying to take my piece of the pie while it’s here. I never looked at games like blackjack or poker, thinking I could destroy people doing that. That would be foolish. The only thing I ever looked at as something I could really beat up on is hockey. I was willing to forget everything I knew about hockey to drop the preconceived biases that I had about things.
How long into a season before you get a real handle on trends?
MACNEIL: You’re starting to see who teams are right now, but things can change so quickly. You saw that the other night between the Dallas Stars and the Calgary Flames, a team that the market absolutely fell in love with because they have great underlying numbers. Dallas hadn’t looked good. But when it got to minus-145 [on Calgary] when I woke up, that’s when I start to back off. You start to feel bad if you put too much stock into teams too early. These teams are not going to be who you thought they were. The trends like home ice are up and down each week. It’s always in flux. I look at the underlying metrics: The shot share, the expected goals and score adjustments — you don’t want to just look at the raw numbers, you want to take the score into account to see how your bet did. If all that’s trending in one direction vs. core analytics and I have to make adjustments, then I’ll make adjustments. And of course stay on top of injuries.
Finish this sentence: When I get on hockey, the identity of the starting goalie is _______.
MACNEIL: Something that I project more often than not. I strongly believe that if we were to take the element of surprise away from the betting marketing, with injuries and goaltending announcements, sportsbooks could keep the limits really low during the day. I think it would have adverse effects. If you’re a recreational bettor, it’s tough to sit in front of the computer all day. I don’t expect anyone to do that. But there are websites like Daily Faceoff that are diligent in tweeting that information all day. Just set an alert on your phone for it and then be ready to get the bet in. When I had a real job, I used to spend time away from work to get a bet in. Those 15-minute trips to the bathroom, when you don’t have to go to the bathroom, you know? You gotta do what you gotta do.
What would make hockey betting more fun?
MACNEIL: I wish I had a good answer here, but … I don’t enjoy the games. [Laughs] The most exciting thing for me is waking up at 5 a.m. and getting down on a good price for a team before news comes out and the market moves. That’s the goal. That’s winning to me. I can’t control if Mikko Koskinen lets in five goals for the Oilers, but I can control what price I play. Really early on, it was about what price I paid, and that was fun to me. I find myself turning the games off some of the times — especially if the games aren’t going well.
So the thrill’s in the chase for you?
MACNEIL: It’s like chasing a stock price. That is the thrill for me. If people look at it that way, then it can be fun. This is an area where an average guy like me can hone his craft, open his mind up to thinking about things differently, and it was due to gambling. Because I don’t want to lose money.
Trick or trend
A look at some of the recent betting trends and if they’ll hold.
Seattle Kraken 7-3-2 over/under: We’ve all been trying to get a handle on who or what the Kraken are going to be this season, a debate complicated by confounding losses like that one against the then-winless Arizona Coyotes. The fact that seven of their first 12 games have gone over is a surprise, given the expectations we had for their goaltending. But Philipp Grubauer has been the league’s most disappointing goalie (minus-9.9 goals saved above average) and Chris Driedger has been limited by injury, resulting in an NHL-worst .871 team save percentage. We have to imagine that won’t last.
Verdict: Trick
Kyle Connor shot props: The Winnipeg Jets winger is third in NHL this season with 46 shots in 11 games. The typical shots on goal over/under prop is 2.5 for most players with a decent volume. Connor has topped that total in eight of his 11 games. But everyone with a box score knows this, so there might not be much value here as a prop unless his shot totals fall off. Which they won’t.
Verdict: Trend
Toronto Maple Leafs 4-8-0 over/under: The Leafs have hit the over in two of their past six games, including their 5-2 win over the Boston Bruins on Saturday. Lost in the attention given to Toronto’s offensive stars is that the Leafs have been among the best 5-on-5 defensive teams in the NHL over the last two seasons (2.06 expected goals against). In seven of 12 games, they’ve held opponents to two goals or fewer.
Verdict: Trend
Washington Capitals 8-3 on puck line: The Capitals are 5-2-4 on the season. Their puck-line record is an indication that they’re beating the underdogs soundly and hanging close when they’re the underdog, like in two one-goal losses against the Florida teams. They have an interesting stretch coming up against the Sabres, Red Wings and Blue Jackets that’ll test this.
Verdict: Trick
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Sports
Ted Williams’ 1946 MVP award sells for over $500K
Published
33 mins agoon
November 17, 2024By
admin-
Associated Press
Nov 17, 2024, 06:55 PM ET
A rare souvenir postcard picturing Hank Aaron as a rookie with the Indianapolis Clowns of the Negro Leagues sold for nearly $200,000 at a baseball memorabilia auction that also included Ted Williams’ 1946 AL MVP award, which went for $528,750.
The Aaron postcard from the scrapbook of scout Ed Scott, who discovered Aaron, went for $199,750 following a bidding war that soared past the pre-sale estimate of $5,000-$10,000, Hunt Auctions said.
The auction included 280 items from Williams’ personal collection that had been held by his daughter, Claudia, who died last year. Among the other items were a silver bat awarded for his 1958 batting title, which sold for more than $270,000, and the Presidential Medal of Freedom presented to him by fellow naval aviator George H.W. Bush, which went for $141,000.
The sale also included items from the collection of Rutherford Hayes Jones, the business manager of the Washington Giants, one of the earliest Black baseball teams. The trove was discovered in 2001 in a suitcase, where it had been unseen for 40 years.
A first batch of items from Claudia Williams’ collection went up for auction in 2012 at Fenway Park and garnered more than $5 million.
Sports
Power Rankings: Oregon remains on top, LSU drops out of top 25 after Week 12
Published
3 hours agoon
November 17, 2024By
adminWas something in the air in Week 12? We are now down to three undefeated FBS teams following No. 6 BYU’s loss to Kansas on Saturday night, and in total, five AP Top 25 teams lost to unranked opponents.
With BYU suffering its first loss of the season and now tied with Colorado in the Big 12 standings, what do the Cougars need to do in the last few weeks to reach the conference title game?
Georgia gained a much-needed win over Tennessee at home Saturday. The Bulldogs are well positioned to make a College Football Playoff appearance, but injuries have taken a toll on their roster depth. How can Georgia prepare for the playoff over the next few weeks, should it gain one of the 12 spots?
How did Saturday’s action affect our Power Rankings?
Here’s the latest top 25 from our college football experts, who provide their insight on each team following Week 12.
Previous ranking: 1
The 11-0 Ducks escaped Wisconsin with a 16-13 comeback victory in the fourth quarter. But again, Oregon couldn’t stifle the opposing team’s running game, as Badgers running back Tawee Walker kept the Ducks offense off the field with 97 yards on 20 carries. Oregon now ranks 71st nationally in EPA (expected points added) on run defense (minus-8.99), and 12th in the Big Ten. The league’s other playoff contenders — Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State — all rank in the top 11 nationally in EPA run defense. Oregon is sure to face prolific rushing attacks in the playoff. Getting key stops against the run — and getting its high-powered offense back on the field — will be paramount, if the Ducks are going to make a run to their first national championship. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 2
The Buckeyes’ defense has responded very well from its loss to Oregon, holding its past four opponents to under 20 points and fewer than 275 yards per game. But the Buckeyes (9-1) will need to be a bit sharper on third down this coming week against Indiana, which entered Week 12 ranked 10th nationally in third-down conversions (49.1%). Northwestern converted five of its first 11 third-down chances against Ohio State on Saturday at Wrigley Field, and could have made the game more competitive if it had finished drives in Buckeyes territory.
Coach Ryan Day noted the early third-down struggles and the defense’s improvement as the game went along, saying, “We settled down a little bit.” Ohio State will need its veteran defensive line to pressure Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has been sacked only 10 times this season, and fluster a Hoosiers offensive line that struggled against Michigan. — Adam Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 3
The 9-1 Longhorns avoided a major pothole on their road to a showdown with Texas A&M that could have SEC championship game implications, fending off a pesky Arkansas team. Texas still couldn’t get its vertical passing game on track due to the Hogs’ three-safety approach on defense, and Texas players admitted it was frustrating. But in a road game against old rivals who anxiously awaited a chance to break Texas’ hearts the way the Longhorns had done to them for years, Steve Sarkisian’s team adjusted and was able to grind out the 20-10 win. The star was the defense, which was smothering all day, holding an offense that averaged 484 yards per game to just 231. Texas has Kentucky on Saturday before the Aggies on Nov. 30. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 5
Areas of improvement are tough to find for an Indiana team that leads the nation in scoring margin (301) and is 10-0 for the first time. But the Hoosiers’ offensive struggles in the second half on Nov. 9 against Michigan sounded some alarm bells, especially since they will face an Ohio State team with a lot more talent this week. IU had only 17 net yards on 24 plays in the second half against the Wolverines, as reliable quarterback Kurtis Rourke threw an interception near the goal line and a banged-up offensive line showed cracks for the first time.
The second open week came at a good time, as Rourke is still recovering from surgery on the thumb on his throwing hand, while wide receiver Myles Price and others had a chance to rest up. Indiana’s line-of-scrimmage play has been overlooked with all the other highlights, but the Hoosiers must hold up there against Ohio State to have a chance in Columbus. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 6
Penn State thrashed Purdue 49-10, as expected. But if the Nittany Lions are going to make a playoff run, they’re going to need to be sharper in the red zone. Coming into the weekend, Penn State (9-1) ranked just 48th in red zone scoring percentage (87.2%). Missed opportunities in the red zone doomed the Nittany Lions in their Nov. 2 loss to Ohio State.
Twice, Penn State had first-and-goal at the Buckeyes’ 3-yard line, but both times it came up empty. Ohio State’s Davison Igbinosun wrestled the ball away for an interception just before halftime. Then, with a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, Penn State couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone. Had the Nittany Lions converted both of those opportunities, they’d still be undefeated. Penn State can’t afford to come up empty on deep drives if it wants to advance in the playoff. — Trotter
Previous ranking: 8
It wasn’t supposed to be close, and it wasn’t Saturday in Alabama’s 52-7 rout of outmanned FCS foe Mercer. It was a scrimmage of sorts for the Crimson Tide (8-2, 4-2) before diving into their final two games of the season and what would almost certainly be a berth in the SEC championship game if they can win out against Oklahoma on the road this coming weekend and then Auburn at home on Nov. 30.
Turnovers will be key for Alabama the rest of the way. The Crimson Tide hurt themselves with turnovers in their two losses, so taking care of the ball will be critical. Quarterback Jalen Milroe was done midway through the third quarter after piling up 229 total yards of total offense and accounting for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). He has also been better at limiting his turnovers. Alabama’s defense forced three turnovers in what was the Tide’s third straight dominant performance. Since the 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt on Oct. 5, Alabama has not given up more than 25 points in a game. — Chris Low
Previous ranking: 10
After what might end up being a season-defining win over Georgia, Ole Miss (8-2) enjoyed a bye in Week 12 in anticipation of a manageable but anxious home stretch. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels will wrap the season with a trip to Florida and an Egg Bowl visit from Mississippi State. They will be comfortably favored in both games, and at 11th in the CFP rankings, they’ll have a solid shot at ending up in the playoff if they win out. But it’s not a guarantee, and Florida, who just beat LSU on Saturday, is a pretty dangerous underdog at the moment. The Gators will test Ole Miss’ big-play prevention capabilities: On six of 43 snaps against LSU, Florida gained at least 20 yards. MSU can bite off chunk plays as well, and if Ole Miss is to win out, discipline in the back will be a must. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 13
Now that the sky is no longer falling in Athens, Georgia, after the Bulldogs took down Tennessee 31-17 on Saturday night, they need to focus on trying to get healthy for the stretch run. Tailback Trevor Etienne missed the game with a rib injury, leaving freshmen Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens to carry the load against the Volunteers. Receiver Dillon Bell went down with an ankle injury; coach Kirby Smart didn’t know the severity of the injury. Georgia’s depleted receiver corps, which was missing suspended Colbie Young, was already razor thin in terms of depth.
The Bulldogs (8-2) were forced to play only five offensive linemen the entire game because starting tackle Earnest Greene III is battling a shoulder injury. The starting unit of left tackle Monroe Freeling, left guard Dylan Fairchild, center Jared Wilson, right guard Tate Ratledge and right tackle Xavier Truss didn’t allow a sack and gave quarterback Carson Beck plenty of time to work. He completed 25 of 40 passes for 347 yards with three total touchdowns. Georgia had four scoring drives of 75 yards or more. With non-SEC games remaining against UMass and Georgia Tech at home, Georgia is well-positioned to make the CFP. — Mark Schlabach
Previous ranking: 11
The Irish (9-1) continued their dominance of the ACC, walloping Virginia 35-14 and finishing 5-0 against their part-time conference for the year. Since beginning a scheduling agreement with the ACC that guarantees five games against the conference each season in 2014, Notre Dame has finished without a regular-season loss six times and is 50-11 overall against the ACC. In the win over Virginia, Riley Leonard threw for three touchdowns, and Jeremiyah Love ran for two more. Notre Dame’s playoff hopes likely come down to next week’s game against undefeated Army. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 9
The 9-1 Hurricanes had an open date to prepare for their final two regular-season games, with an ACC championship game berth on the line. There is little doubt Miami spent that time focusing on its defense, and ways to ensure the breakdowns we have seen in recent weeks — especially in a loss to Georgia Tech — are fixed. While the Miami secondary had shown inconsistency throughout the season, what was particularly galling in the loss to the Yellow Jackets was a run defense that simply was out of position and unable to adjust — allowing 271 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Up next is Wake Forest and running back Demond Claiborne, one of the better rushers in the league. The matchup will provide a good test to see whether Miami has fixed one of its bigger issues. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 12
With BYU’s loss to the Kansas Jayhawks, Boise State (9-1) is inching closer toward the possibility of receiving a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos got off to a slow start at San José State on Saturday, but after falling behind 14-0, they closed the game on a 42-7 run to win convincingly as Ashton Jeanty broke the single-season school rushing record. With 1,893 yards through 10 games, Jeanty is sure to be a Heisman Trophy finalist and could soon be within striking distance of Barry Sanders’ single-season FBS rushing record of 2,628 yards from 1988. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 4
The Volunteers’ eighth straight loss to Georgia didn’t necessarily knock them out of the CFP, but they’re going to face an uphill battle to get back into the top 12 unless there are some upsets in the final two weeks of the regular season. Tennessee (8-2) had a great win over Alabama at home, but victories over struggling NC State and Oklahoma won’t do much to help its chances. Against the Bulldogs, the Volunteers couldn’t protect quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who returned after suffering a concussion last week, and couldn’t get enough pressure on Georgia quarterback Carson Beck.
Iamaleava was sacked five times. He completed 20 of 33 passes for 167 yards. The UT defense didn’t have a sack and had only two tackles for loss, allowing Beck to throw for 347 yards with two scores. Georgia went 8-for-14 on third down and 5-for-5 in the red zone. If the Vols beat UTEP and Vanderbilt in their final two games, they’ll be in the CFP discussion. They’ll probably be wondering if they’ve done enough. — Schlabach
Previous ranking: 14
Certainly, there is plenty to clean up after a 38-28 win over Boston College in which the Eagles took the Mustangs (9-1) down to the wire. BC was able to run the ball for 180 yards and three touchdowns and held the ball for nearly 11 more minutes than the Mustangs — not a huge surprise, given the Eagles clearly planned to slow down SMU and limit its possessions. But SMU’s defense made the plays it needed to in the end, sacking Grayson James on consecutive plays late in the game to help secure the win.
SMU heads to Virginia next to keep its undefeated league mark intact and move one step closer to an ACC championship game appearance. Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith were spectacular once again, combining to score all four of the Mustangs’ touchdowns. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 7
Another late game-winning drive wasn’t in the cards for BYU, which dropped its first game of the season, 17-13 at home vs. Kansas. The Cougars (9-1) remain tied with Colorado atop the Big 12 standings at 6-1, but are in a position now where they will likely need to win at Arizona State (5-2) on Friday to reach the conference title game. Their 13 points against Kansas were the fewest they have scored in a game this season, as Jake Retzlaff completed 18 of 28 passes for 192 yards with a touchdown and an interception. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 17
The Aggies (8-2) needed a get-right game after getting shut out in the second half of a 44-20 loss at South Carolina on Nov. 2 that snapped their seven-game winning streak. They worked out some kinks against New Mexico State, including allowing just 50 yards to the other Aggies in the first half. Marcel Reed further solidified his place as A&M’s starter with two passing touchdowns and a rush for another.
In the first game without leading rusher Le’Veon Moss, Amari Daniels had five carries for 84 yards, including a 71-yard touchdown, and A&M was able to empty the bench and even get the all-walk-on 12th Man kickoff team some time. The Aggies will have to lock in for a dangerous night game at Auburn on Saturday before returning home to defend Kyle Field against the Longhorns on Nov. 30. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 15
Army (9-0) watched Tulane clinch the other spot in the AAC championship on Saturday; the Green Wave and Black Knights will face off for the title on Dec. 7. But first comes maybe the biggest (non-Navy) Army game in decades Saturday, when the Black Knights head to Yankee Stadium to face Notre Dame in a game that could determine their CFP viability. With a win, they would almost certainly rise into the teens in the CFP rankings. To pull off the upset, though, the Black Knights might have to find their inner disruptor. They are great at the bend-but-don’t-break routine, forcing few negative plays but allowing no big plays and making stops in the red zone. But Notre Dame can run the ball (and finish in the red zone) with ruthless efficiency, and if Army can’t knock the Irish off-schedule, it might not make enough stops. — Connelly
Previous ranking: 16
The Buffaloes (8-2) are on a four-game winning streak and could legitimately win a Big 12 title in Deion Sanders’ second season. But a 49-24 rout of Utah on Saturday left their head coach wanting more from the rushing attack. Arkansas transfer Isaiah Augustave broke a 37-yard touchdown run against the Utes, but the Buffs’ backs combined for 32 yards on 11 carries over the rest of the game. “We can do some remarkable things if we have a more balanced offense,” Sanders said. Colorado has gained 1,017 yards on non-sack rushes this season, fewest among all Power 4 offenses. — Max Olson
Previous ranking: 20
The Gamecocks are one of those teams that nobody is lining up to play right now, and one of the things that will make them even more formidable the rest of the way will be holding on to leads. They’re finding different ways to win, growing up in key areas and smothering opposing offenses with a defensive line that’s right up there with any in college football. The Gamecocks (7-3, 5-3) rallied past Missouri in the final minute for a 34-30 win on Saturday, giving them their fourth straight victory and marking only the second time in the past 11 seasons they have finished with a winning SEC record.
The only real snag is that the Gamecocks had a two-touchdown lead early and couldn’t hold on. That could come back to bite them down the road. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers, a redshirt freshman, is blossoming at just the right time. He passed for 353 yards and five touchdowns, with the final one being the game winner to Rocket Sanders on a 15-yard shovel pass. Two nonconference games remain for South Carolina: against Wofford at home this coming weekend and then at home vs. bitter in-state rival Clemson on Nov. 30. The Gamecocks are one of the more improved teams in the country from a year ago and a couple of close losses to LSU and Alabama away from being right in the middle of the playoff conversation. — Low
Previous ranking: 19
The Tigers are done with ACC play with two weeks to go in the regular season, going 7-1 (8-2 overall), and still have a slight chance to make it to the ACC championship game after an up-and-down 24-20 win over Pitt on Saturday. The easiest route would be for Miami to lose again. No matter what happens, Clemson suddenly has issues on its offensive line, which lost another player Saturday. The Tigers are down multiple starters, and it showed in a ragged effort against the Panthers in which they were unable to run the ball until Cade Klubnik‘s late touchdown; Klubnik was harassed for the majority of the game. The Citadel is up next, and then a huge matchup against rival South Carolina at home as the Tigers seek to notch another 10-win season. — Adelson
Previous ranking: NR
Kenny Dillingham and his coaching staff continues to pull off one of the best turnarounds in the country. The 8-2 Sun Devils notched another statement win on Saturday with a 24-14 road stunner over No. 16 Kansas State. Redshirt freshman QB Sam Leavitt is playing at a high level, Jordyn Tyson burned the Wildcats for 176 receiving yards and two scores on 12 catches and the Sun Devils’ defense didn’t allow a score until late in the third quarter. One area where they’ll need to improve if they hope to win out: the kicking game. Former USC and Ohio State transfer Parker Lewis has taken over the kicking duties and converted a 47-yard field goal against K-State. — Olson
Previous ranking: 25
It’s difficult to nitpick a Green Wave team that has won eight straight games by an average margin of 28.8 points and clinched a spot in the AAC title game with a 35-0 win over Navy on Saturday. However, if Tulane (9-2) wants to make the most of its outside shot at a playoff berth, it could use an uptick in the passing game. Freshman quarterback Darian Mensah delivered another efficient performance in Week 12 (10-of-14, 138 yards, two TDs), while Tulane’s 10th-ranked rushing attack totalled 220 yards. The Green Wave offense is rolling, but Mensah has eclipsed 14 completions just twice over the past eight games and 200 yards only three times during that stretch. The Tulane run game has carried Jon Sumrall’s program this fall, but it will need a passing attack when it meets Army — and the nation’s No. 3 run defense (82.6 yards per game) entering Week 12 — in the AAC championship game on Dec. 6. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: NR
The Cyclones (8-2) snapped a two-game skid Saturday with a 24-point second half powered by a pair of Rocco Becht touchdowns. But the biggest hitch in Iowa State’s slim Big 12 title game (and playoff) hopes remains a run defense that was gashed for 287 rushing yards in a 34-17 road win over Cincinnati on Saturday night. The injuries that have ravaged Iowa State’s defense in the back half of the season have shown up on the ground, where Jon Heacock’s unit has now given up 200-plus yards in five of the Cyclones’ past eight games. Can Iowa State improve against the run with a depleted and inexperienced defense in the coming weeks? Unclear. But it’s the area in which the Cyclones need to improve if they’re going to scrap back into the conference title race ahead of a visit to Utah and a home game vs. Kansas State to close the regular season. — Lederman
Previous ranking: 18
The Cougars escaped a number of close calls throughout the season, but their luck finally caught up with them in a poor road performance at New Mexico. Wazzu led 28-14 at halftime, only to collapse in a 38-35 loss, with New Mexico scoring the game-winning touchdown with 21 seconds to play. If the Cougars (8-2) win out, they can still tie their single-season school wins record (11), but there’s no sugarcoating this: It was a terrible loss to take this deep in the season. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: NR
There’s not much to nitpick about the 8-2 Rebels following their 41-20 win over San Diego State late Saturday night. UNLV was never in much danger in this one, pulling away with a 21-point second quarter and surpassing 250 yards both passing and rushing. The Rebels have a top-10 scoring offense in the FBS but haven’t been among the nation’s best in third-down efficiency, ranking 86th entering Saturday with a conversion rate of 38%. They boosted that percentage against the Aztecs by going 8-for-16, but coach Barry Odom knows it’s going to take excellent situational football to win the Mountain West. — Olson
Previous ranking: 24
For the first time since a loss to Kentucky in November 2022, Missouri lost a one-score game. The Tigers’ nine-game winning streak in such games came to an end at the hands of LaNorris Sellers, Raheim Sanders and the South Carolina offense. Mizzou got a gutty performance from quarterback Brady Cook, who started despite being listed as doubtful for much of the week because of a wrist injury; the senior threw for 237 yards and got 150 rushing yards from Nate Noel and a glorious late touchdown from Luther Burden III to give the Tigers the lead with 1:10 left. But the Gamecocks scored 55 seconds later, and Mizzou fell to 6-3. The biggest challenge for the rest of the season: remaining focused. Mizzou entered the season with playoff hopes, and those are out the window, but the Tigers will be favored in each of their last two games and could still finish 9-3. That’s never bad in Columbia. — Connelly
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Sources: No. 2 ’25 QB Lewis decommits from USC
Published
4 hours agoon
November 17, 2024By
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Pete Thamel
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Eli Lederman
CloseEli Lederman
ESPN Staff Writer
- Eli Lederman covers college football and recruiting for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2024 after covering the University of Oklahoma for Sellout Crowd and the Tulsa World.
Nov 17, 2024, 02:11 PM ET
Julian Lewis, the No. 2 player and quarterback in the 2025 class, decommitted from USC on Sunday, sources told ESPN, sealing a seismic development for one of the nation’s top prospects in the closing weeks of the recruiting cycle.
Lewis’ decommitment, which had been expected, comes the day after the 6-foot-1, 195-pound quarterback took an unofficial visit to Georgia for the game against Tennessee. He also visited Colorado on Oct. 26 and expressed interest in Indiana throughout his recruitment.
The plan remains for Lewis to commit in the upcoming weeks and enroll early in school, according to sources. He’s the top uncommitted player in the class of 2025 and his choice looms as one of the biggest stories of the early signing period with Colorado, Georgia and Indiana expected to contend for his signature before the signing period opens Dec. 4.
Sources also told ESPN on Sunday that four-star Texas A&M quarterback pledge Husan Longstreet, No. 47 in the 2025 ESPN 300, has flipped his pledge to USC in the wake of Lewis’ departure from the Trojans’ incoming class.
USC quarterbacks coach Luke Huard attended Longstreet’s playoff game at Corona Centennial High School in California on Friday night, and ESPN’s No. 4 pocket passer visited the Trojans during their game against Nebraska on Saturday.
Lewis had been verbally committed to the Trojans since Aug. 22, 2023. Yet questions had swirled over his recruitment from the summer into the fall and all the way through to his decommitment from USC on Sunday.
Lewis’ move marks the latest blow to a USC class that has now lost six commitments from the 2025 ESPN 300 in this cycle.
That list of high-profile departures from Lincoln Riley’s incoming class includes five-star defenders Justus Terry and Isaiah Gibson, and Lewis’ exit stands as USC’s third recruiting loss in the past seven days following the flips of defensive lineman Hayden Lowe (Miami) and cornerback Shamar Arnoux (Auburn).
The Trojans sat ninth in ESPN’s latest class rankings for the 2025 cycle prior to Lewis’ decommitment.
With the move, Lewis instantly regains status as the one of nation’s most sought-after uncommitted prospects. He first entered that realm in 2022 when he burst onto the national scene with 4,118 yards and 48 touchdowns while leading Carrollton to the Georgia 7A state title game in his freshman season.
That debut campaign earned Lewis a place as the No. 1 prospect in the 2026 class before he reclassified into the 2025 cycle earlier this year, several months after his commitment to USC last August.
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