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The latest AP poll is out.
It was a tough week for ranked teams. Four teams in last week’s top 10 — the Georgia Bulldogs, LSU Tigers, Penn State Nittany Lions and the Florida State Seminoles all lost.
The Ole Miss Rebels knocked off LSU to jump into the top 5 of the rankings. Rebels QB Trinidad Chambliss had 385 total yards and a score, and the Tigers struggled on both sides of the ball. They failed to score 20 points for the third time in the past five games. The LSU defense allowed 480 yards. The Tigers have allowed 944 total yards in their past two games against the Rebels.
Elsewhere, the Indiana Hoosiers, Texas A&M Aggies, Tennessee Volunteers and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets all got narrow wins.
What does it all mean for the AP Top 25? Let’s break down the rankings.
Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.
All times Eastern
Previous ranking: 1
2025 record: 4-0
Week 5 result: Defeated Washington 24-6
Stat to know: Ohio State has held its opponent under 10 points in each of the first four games of a season for the first time since 1973.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Minnesota, 7:30 p.m., NBC
Previous ranking: 6
2025 record: 5-0
Week 5 result: Defeated Penn State 30-24
Stat to know: First road win against an AP top-5 team since 2021 at Ohio State.
What’s next: Oct. 11 vs. Indiana
Previous ranking: 2
2025 record: 4-0
Week 5 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Florida State, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 13
2025 record: 5-0
Week 5 result: Defeated LSU 24-19
Stat to know: QB Trinidad Chambliss is the first SEC player with at least 300 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in three straight games in the past 30 years.
What’s next: Oct. 11 vs. Washington State, 12:45 p.m., SEC Network
Previous ranking: 7
2025 record: 4-0
Week 5 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday vs. Kent State, 4 p.m., SEC Network
Previous ranking: 9
2025 record: 4-0
Week 5 result: Defeated Auburn 16-10
Stat to know: Texas A&M is 4-0 to start a season for the first time since 2016 (started 6-0).
What’s next: Saturday vs. Mississippi State, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
Previous ranking: 3
2025 record: 3-1
Week 5 result: Lost to Oregon 30-24
Stat to know: Penn State’s six-game win streak in White Out games was snapped in the loss to Oregon.
What’s next: Saturday at UCLA, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Previous ranking: 11
2025 record: 5-0
Week 5 result: Defeated Iowa 20-15
Stat to know: Indiana has started 5-0 in consecutive seasons. Before this current run, the Hoosiers started 5-0 only twice in program history (1967, 1910).
What’s next: Oct. 11 at Oregon
Previous ranking: 10
2025 record: 3-1
Week 5 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Florida, 3:30 p.m.
Previous ranking: 17
2025 record: 3-1
Week 5 result: Defeated Georgia 24-21
Stat to know: Alabama has won 10 of its past 11 games against Georgia.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Vanderbilt, 3:30 p.m.
Previous ranking: 12
2025 record: 4-0
Week 5 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday at Houston, 7 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 5
2025 record: 3-1
Week 5 result: Lost to Alabama 24-21
Stat to know: The loss to Alabama was Georgia’s first home loss since 2019.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Kentucky, noon, ABC
Previous ranking: 4
2025 record: 4-1
Week 5 result: Lost to Ole Miss 24-19
Stat to know: LSU has allowed 450 or more total yards three times in the past two years. Two of those came against Ole Miss.
What’s next: Oct. 11 vs. South Carolina
Previous ranking: 14
2025 record: 4-0
Week 5 result: Defeated Arizona 39-14
Stat to know: Iowa State is the first Big 12 program to start 5-0 in consecutive seasons since Oklahoma State in 2021.
What’s next: Saturday at Cincinnati, noon, ESPN2
Previous ranking: 15
2025 record: 4-1
Week 5 result: Defeated Mississippi State 41-34 (OT)
Stat to know: Tennessee has never lost multiple overtime games in the same season.
What’s next: Oct. 11 vs. Arkansas
Previous ranking: 18
2025 record: 5-0
Week 5 result: Defeated Utah State 55-35
Stat to know: Vanderbilt has scored 50 or more points in consecutive games for the first time since 1915.
What’s next: Saturday at Alabama, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 16
2025 record: 5-0
Week 5 result: Defeated Wake Forest 30-29 (OT)
Stat to know: In the win, Haynes King recorded his 13th game with a passing and rushing score, the most by a Georgia Tech player over the past 20 years.
What’s next: Oct. 11 vs. Virginia Tech
Previous ranking: 8
2025 record: 3-1
Week 5 result: Lost to Virginia 46-38 (2OT)
Stat to know: In the loss, Randy Pittman Jr. joined Clemson’s C.J. Spiller as the only non-QBs in the ACC in the past 20 years with a passing, rushing and receiving score in the same game.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Previous ranking: 20
2025 record: 5-0
Week 5 result: Defeated UMass 42-6
Stat to know: Mizzou is 5-0 for the second time in the last 12 seasons.
What’s next: Oct. 11 vs. Alabama, noon
Previous ranking: 19
2025 record: 3-1
Week 5 result: Idle
What’s next: Saturday vs. Wisconsin, noon, Fox
Previous ranking: 22
2025 record: 2-2
Week 5 result: Defeated Arkansas 56-13
Stat to know: The 56 points were the most scored by Notre Dame against an SEC opponent since scoring 59 against Tulane in 1947.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Boise State, 3:30 p.m., NBC
Previous ranking: 23
2025 record: 4-1
Week 5 result: Defeated USC 34-32
Stat to know: QB Luke Altmyer is the first Illinois player to have a passing, rushing and receiving touchdown in the same game since Kurt Kittner did it in 1999.
What’s next: Saturday at Purdue, noon, Big Ten Network
Previous ranking: 25
2025 record: 4-0
Week 5 result: Defeated Colorado 24-21
Stat to know: BYU has started 4-0 in consecutive seasons and for the fourth time in 10 seasons under Kalani Sitake.
What’s next: Friday vs. West Virginia, 10:30 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 4-1
Week 5 result: Defeated Florida State 46-38 (2OT)
Stat to know: Virginia’s 46 points were its most ever against an AP top-10 team.
What’s next: Saturday at Louisville, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
Previous ranking: NR
2025 record: 4-1
Week 5 result: Defeated TCU 27-24
Stat to know: Arizona State has won nine straight at home.
What’s next: October 11 at Utah
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David Hale
The beauty of college football, the thing that keeps us coming back week after week in spite of the exasperating morass of everything that happens off the field, is that the sport keeps surprising us.
This shouldn’t be possible. Once you’ve seen the band on the field, the kick-six and a player mimic a urinating dog after a touchdown, we should be immune to such astonishment. And yet, here were are, in Week 5, awash in shock and awe once more.
Who would’ve thought that Alabama, reeling in the aftermath of a Week 1 loss to Florida State, would waltz into Athens and swat down Georgia 24-21 behind a brilliant performance from QB Ty Simpson? Kalen DeBoer has gone from the hot seat to the SEC’s throne in the span of a month.
Who might’ve imagined that James Franklin, three quarters of the way through yet another root canal of a performance in a big game, would see his Penn State team rally from 14 points down to force overtime against Oregon? Even if it all still came to an end with a 30-24 defeat in double overtime, the game felt more like last year’s battle of titans between the Ducks and Ohio State, an appetizer before an entree to come later — in the conference title game or the College Football Playoff or at Dan Lanning’s annual Big Ten family trip to Six Flags.
Who would have imagined that a clattering of cowbells would come within a few yards of upending the SEC’s power structure, that Virginia‘s football program, which had fallen asleep watching Tony Bennett’s offense six years ago, would suddenly awaken to stun Florida State, or that, just days after Brian Kelly promised LSU would keep the Magnolia Trophy, Lane Kiffin would come away with a win and troll Kelly on social media?
OK, so we probably should’ve seen that last one coming.
— Lane Kiffin (@Lane_Kiffin) September 27, 2025
And so, we’ve reached September’s end, and so much of what seemed certain has come undone. No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 LSU, No. 5 Georgia and No. 8 Florida State all went down in a raucous Week 5 that reshuffled expectations for October and offered a reminder of just how little we know so early in a season.
In Week 1, we got our first true stunner of the new season, as Tommy Castellanos and the Seminoles upended Alabama. After Saturday, it seems impossible to believe that just five weeks have passed since then.
For the Tide, every glaring weakness on display in Tallahassee on Aug. 30 had been miraculously remedied in Athens on Saturday night. Simpson was terrific, throwing for 276 yards and two scores, the defense was stalwart, and DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb worked magic, from a rejuvenated rushing attack to a near flawless night of third-down playcalling to the inspired use of left tackle Kadyn Proctor on a trick play that we assume Bama calls “No, seriously, get out of his way for your own safety! Our health insurance plan does not cover what will happen to you if you attempt to tackle him!”
0:33
Ty Simpson throws pass to 6-foot-7, 366-pound tackle Kayden Proctor
Ty Simpson throws it out to Kayden Proctor, who barrels over everyone to set up first-and-goal.
Georgia had its chances, but came up small is so many big moments, including a misplayed fourth-down call near the goal line. Gunner Stockton was held to just 130 yards through the air in what was surely his most disappointing performance since his pickup truck got a flat tire and he completely missed his chance to score Aerosmith tickets.
It was 17 years ago, in Nick Saban’s second season as Alabama’s head coach, that the Tide arrived in Athens for a “blackout” and stomped Matthew Stafford, A.J. Green and a star-studded Georgia team in a game that announced the new coach’s arrival as the conference’s standard. Whether DeBoer’s win will prove as significant depends entirely on where Alabama goes from here, but after a year of questions and criticism, the possibility no longer feels so far-fetched.
For the better part of three quarters, Oregon-Penn State felt as if Tony Petitti had accidentally cut and pasted an Iowa game into Happy Valley, but when Oregon scored on back-to-back drives to go up 17-3, the boos erupted from the white-clad faithful, the Nittany Lions appeared headed to another dismal defeat at the hands of an elite foe, and Franklin again remained frustratingly stoic, as if he was watching his laundry dry rather than seeing the football gods spite his team once again.
This is how close Oregon was to not being down on the overturned fumble call 👀
📺:NBC pic.twitter.com/62yfJoeORR
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 28, 2025
And then, just as suddenly, it all shifted. Drew Allar remembered he can throw the ball forward, Kaytron Allen delivered body blows in the run game befitting a heavyweight boxer, and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki flipped his play card around and realized he had been reading it upside down the whole time
Yes, it was still ultimately a loss for Penn State after Dillon Thieneman picked off Allar in the second overtime. Yes, Oregon’s win warrants ample praise, and the Ducks should comfortably move into the AP top three, as Dante Moore looks like a poised veteran, the corps of tailbacks is deep and dynamic, and the defensive front is utterly ferocious. And yes, Franklin’s reputation for falling short in big games will remain intact a little longer. He’s now 4-21 against AP top-10 opponents, though it seems unfair no one ever mentions he’s 12-0 against the MAC. But Saturday’s fourth quarter did feel different, as if this Penn State team had awoken from a long slumber and was finally now ready to play like a team capable of winning it all, and a Big Ten battle that includes Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and the Nittany Lions should be among the nation’s best in the coming months.
And all of that was but the grand finale to a weekend that saw so much of the conventional wisdom upended.
Mississippi State‘s dream season nearly reached a new crescendo, but for a failed fourth-down try in overtime against Tennessee.
Florida State was riding high, then it hit a wall against Virginia, who forced the Seminoles into a second overtime, thwarted their final drive and then stormed the field with the pent-up enthusiasm of a stable of racehorses, all but throwing cash at ACC commissioner Jim Phillips to cover the fines before announcing he could keep the change.
Kiffin’s own daughter revealed on social media earlier this week that she was dating LSU star linebacker Whit Weeks, which might have been enough to rattle a lesser father. Not Kiffin though. His Rebels ran roughshod over LSU, as backup QB Trinidad Chambliss continued his unlikely ascent, accounting for 385 yards in a 24-19 win, even if it didn’t cover the total, as Kiffin had promised.
“I’m looking for Whit [Weeks] right now to see if we covered the over.”
Lane Kiffin after beating No. 4 LSU 😭 pic.twitter.com/YcBG6agyp7
— ESPN (@espn) September 27, 2025
It’s hard to blame Kiffin for the low total. LSU has now failed to crack 24 points in any of its four games against FBS competition this year.
The end result of the weekend is a playoff picture that looks as garbled and vague as ever.
Is Alabama back? Is Penn State a contender? Is Oregon the Big Ten’s best? Is Florida State cooked? Will Brian Kelly’s head explode like a piñata if LSU doesn’t figure out how to run the ball?
September provided more surprises than answers, which is all we could’ve asked for.
More:
Trends | Under the radar
Heisman five
Week 5 vibe check
Each week, big games help dictate the playoff landscape, but a lot of smaller shifts in the college football ecosystem can go unnoticed. We try to keep tabs on those here.
Trending up: Frustration at Southern Cal
USC was off to a 4-0 start and had climbed back into the AP Top 25. Illinois was coming off of a loss to Indiana so horrendous that a lesser coach than Bret Bielema would have faked his own death and started a new life in South America under the name Bert Gunderson.
So, advantage for the Trojans, right?
Of course not! This is USC, a team that would get lost in the drive-through at an In-N-Out Burger.
Despite Illinois twice fumbling inside the red zone, and despite USC driving 80 yards for a go-ahead touchdown with just 1:55 to play, there was really never any doubt what would happen Saturday, because of course, Lane Kiffin used his last wish on that enchanted monkey’s paw he bought at Ed Orgeron’s garage sale to put a curse on the program as revenge for firing him.
In any case, USC is now 13-12 in its past 25 games, dating back to 2023. As a general rule, if Trojans are that ineffective, there’s either a coaching change or the theft of a monarch’s wife by a rival nation-state. What this means for Lincoln Riley is complicated, as firing him would be extremely expensive and also result in so much exuberant laughter in Oklahoma that the wind created would risk another dust bowl situation.
Trending down: SEC job security
Saturday’s performance in Fayetteville might have been the point of no return for Sam Pittman at Arkansas. The Hogs lost for the third straight game, this time in horrific fashion as Notre Dame utterly shredded the D to the tune of 641 yards in a 56-13 win. Jeremiyah Love scored four times in the first half — two on receptions, two runs — and CJ Carr threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in the win.
During the Razorbacks’ three-game losing streak, they have surrendered a whopping 129 points, which would normally make DC Travis Williams the most reviled coordinator of the Pittman era, but Dan Enos also worked there, so that honor is locked up.
Meanwhile, lurking in the shadows, Bobby Petrino’s diabolical scheme to regain power like the Empire building a second Death Star is finally coming to fruition.
Things are only slightly more secure for Auburn‘s Hugh Freeze, who was brought to The Plains with the expressed intent of ending Nick Saban’s dynasty and building an offensive juggernaut as he had done at Ole Miss and Liberty before. Turns out, Freeze managed the first job by default, with Saban retiring to spend more time with his insurance duck. The second task, however, has proven more difficult, and on Saturday, Auburn’s offense mustered just 155 total yards against Texas A&M, racking up more penalties (10) and as many punts (nine) as first downs.
Freeze is now 5-13 in SEC play since taking over at Auburn. Things are so bleak he’s already confirmed tee times for November, and Auburn boosters are texting Houston Nutt to file a FOIA for Freeze’s phone records.
Then there’s Mark Stoops, who’s hoping he can just fly under the radar until basketball season and then everyone will forget that Kentucky stinks again this year. The Wildcats were waxed 35-13 by South Carolina, and new starting QB Cutter Boley threw two costly interceptions amid another dismal offensive performance. Frankly, if a QB with as SEC a name as “Cutter Boley” can’t get the job done, there doesn’t seem to be any hope for UK to turn things around.
Trending up: Throwback celebrations
Kansas tight end Boden Groen went old-school after catching a touchdown pass early in the second half against Cincinnati, reintroducing the world to “The Dab,” which amazingly is now having a better year than “The Dabo.”
Haven’t seen someone hit the dab in ten years pic.twitter.com/zLCF2MjjcO
— Derek Duke (@DerekDuke25) September 27, 2025
Unfortunately, turning back the clock to the mid-2010s isn’t a good thing for Kansas, which spent most of that decade tying its shoelaces together, then running down a hill covered with banana peels. Predictably, the Jayhawks 34-30 lead with 1:45 to play evaporated quickly as Cincinnati engineered a brilliant 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to secure a 37-34 win.
The Bearcats then celebrated by doing the ice bucket challenge before riding hoverboards into the locker room while blaring “Old Town Road.”
Trending down: Second-half leads in the ACC
Wake Forest was on the brink of scripting the latest chapter in the best-selling memoir “Why the ACC Can’t Have Nice Things,” leading Georgia Tech by as many as 17 in the second half. But Wake let the lead slip away in part due to a controversial missed call in the final two minutes of regulation, and in part because of what Yellow Jackets coach Brent Key called a halftime “hard reset,” which presumably means they unplugged Haynes King and then plugged him back in again.
Wake had a chance to close out the game on a third-and-5 play with 1:48 to go. A Tech defender was clearly offsides, and QB Robby Ashford used the free play opportunity to throw deep. The pass was incomplete, the flag never came, and Wake had to punt — giving Tech a chance to kick a tying field goal and send the game to overtime. The Deacons failed to convert a 2-point try after a Demond Claiborne touchdown, and the Jackets held on for a 30-29 win.
Meanwhile, each new season of Pitt football continues to be akin to a trip to IKEA. It all begins with such optimism and a true sense of adventure, but soon enough devolves into a series of epithets and frustration until Pat Narduzzi is lost in the kitchen appliances section and all those Swedish meatballs suddenly aren’t sitting so well, and you’re screaming at your partner, “I don’t know why we needed a Holstëin in the first place! I was perfectly happy using some plywood atop a stack of cinder blocks!”
Anyway, Pitt blew a 17-point lead to Louisville and lost in embarrassing fashion for the second time in as many games, 34-27.
Trending up: Rivalry trophies
This year, the rivalry between UL Monroe and Arkansas State was dubbed the “Rice Bowl Rivalry” with an appropriately designed trophy to go with the new moniker. The Red Wolves had won the past 15 matchups in the series, but the best they had to show for it was some crowns they stole from a Burger King. But things were different this time around. ULM erased an early 10-0 deficit behind two TD passes from Aidan Armenta to pull off a 28-16 win.
3:20 until this baby is awarded pic.twitter.com/WVO7dcvoO0
— WarhawkReport (@warhawk_report) September 27, 2025
Trending down: Hoosier highlights
A week ago, Indiana looked as dominant as any team in the country. On Saturday, the Hoosiers faced Iowa in a far different scenario. Facing Iowa is like riding rollercoasters after a dinner at Golden Corral. It doesn’t matter how good-looking and successful you are, things are going to get gross.
And so it was that the Hoosiers staggered into the fourth quarter trailing 13-10, and after a late interception, looked to be on the verge of an upset.
Instead, Iowa did what Iowa does best: Stalled on a drive, missed a field goal, then turned the ball over on downs after an Indiana TD. The Hoosiers held on for a 20-15 win and immediately determined this game would be remembered like Season 2 of “Friday Night Lights,” a horrible misstep that no one considers canon.
Trending up: Big 12 high jinks
Who’s the best team in the Big 12? We didn’t know a month ago, we don’t know now, and there’s at least a 12% chance we’ll only find out in December after some sort of high stakes game of rock, paper, scissors.
The conference continues to be college football’s equivalent of your quirky uncle whom everyone loves, but no one trusts to babysit their kids, as Week 5 saw Houston stay undefeated after a raucous come-from-behind win in overtime against Oregon State, Iowa State shellack Arizona while utilizing the rare fake PAT, Arizona State reaffirm its place as a conference contender after a late rally against TCU, and Oklahoma State lose once again but this time while Mike Gundy was busy fly fishing in a shopping mall fountain.
The ol’ swinging gate ‼️
📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/cRP5MdaJ6a
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 27, 2025
This, of course, is what makes the Big 12 great. Everything is possible, and it’s entirely possible that by the end of October, Rich Rodriguez will have a Golden Retriever playing QB, Deion Sanders will have Shedeur don a fake mustache and attempt to rejoin Colorado, and Texas Tech will simply just pay Arizona State to forfeit the rest of the season.
Under-the-radar game of the week
Hawai’i outlasted Air Force 44-35 in a game that featured more than 1,000 yards of total offense, 41 points scored in the fourth quarter, 457 yards and three TD passes from Hawai’i QB Micah Alejado and a remarkable performance by the Rainbow Warriors, who converted 14 of 19 third-down tries. After the conclusion, the governor of Iowa proclaimed any footage of this game as contraband unfit for viewing.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Two weeks after firing head coach Brent Pry, who’d been 1-12 in one-possession games, Virginia Tech eked out a 23-21 victory over NC State, thanks in large part to the heroics of tailback Terion Stewart, who rushed for 175 yards in the game, including this 85-yarder.
0:35
Terion Stewart rips an 85-yard rush
Terion Stewart puts Virginia Tech in scoring position with an 85-yard run.
The win for the Hokies how sets up a solid chain of events in the transitive property championships: Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech, who beat NC State, who beat Virginia, who beat Florida State, who beat Alabama, who beat Georgia. Therefore Old Dominion is better than Georgia. T
Heisman five
The Heisman race was already a mess, but things took another turn this week when the presumed front-runner, Oklahoma‘s John Mateer, was lost for the foreseeable future following hand surgery, leading Arch Manning to note, “right, hand surgery! That’s what I have, too! That explains everything. Shoulder surgery. I mean, hand. Hand surgery.” Regardless, we’re revising our top five candidates after Week 5, and we’ll add Mateer back into the mix if he returns quickly enough to keep his Heisman hopes alive.
1. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza wasn’t exactly sharp, but he did throw for a pair of scores in a win over the Hawkeyes. In Homer’s “Odyssey,” playing offense at Iowa is considered one of the most treacherous perils in the hero’s journey, just ahead of the Lotus-Eaters and just behind being drafted by the New York Jets.
2. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss
In three games without starter Austin Simmons, Ole Miss hasn’t missed a beat, as Chambliss — the transfer from Ferris State has emerged as one of college football’s best stories. He has helped the Rebels topple Arkansas, Tulane and LSU, he is averaging better than 10 yards per pass, and he has accounted for seven touchdowns and just one turnover. The only flaw in this amazing narrative is that he doesn’t have a twin brother named Tobago Chambliss who plays slot receiver.
3. Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia
Vandy is 5-0 for the first time since 2008, and much of the success is due to its star QB. Pavia, whose first season in college football coincided with the advent of the forward pass, has thrived, including a six-touchdown performance in Saturday’s 55-35 win over Utah State. After the game, Pavia even showed off his singing voice.
Diego Pavia sang the @VandyFootball alma mater with @AlyssaLang 😂⚓️ pic.twitter.com/KVIkxpVrL2
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 27, 2025
Not to be outdone, Manning quickly attempted to revive his own Heisman hopes by doing a passable karaoke rendition of “Islands in the Stream” with Steve Sarkisian at a local Applebees.
4. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith
The Buckeyes’ offense has been fairly conservative in two tougher matchups against Texas and, Saturday, vs. Washington. Still, Smith has shined, catching eight passes for 81 yards and a score in a 24-6 win over the Huskies. Afterwards, he taught Julian Sayin how to shave.
5. Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy
Another week, another 100-yard game for Hardy. The ULM transfer carried 24 times for 130 yards and three touchdowns in a win over UMass. But if he had stayed at his previous school, he’d be out celebrating with a Rice Bowl trophy right now, so it’s a mixed bag for Hardy.
Oregon’s win at Penn State catapulted the Ducks into the top three this week, but they weren’t the only movers on a statement Saturday where winning on the road provided an extra boost.
Welcome back, Alabama.
There’s a temporary ceiling, though, for some of these contenders, as the selection committee’s head-to-head tiebreaker is factoring into the ranking. It’s one of several tiebreakers they use when comparing teams, and as long as the teams have similar records, the group has historically leaned on the head-to-head result. That’s helping Florida State tremendously right now.
The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to-date, the ones with statement wins and/or multiple wins against respectable teams have the early edge.
The list below is fluid — and will continue to be as teams enter the heart of conference play. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Canes had a bye week to prepare for their trip to Florida State, but entered this week ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — a statistic that has historically aligned with the selection committee’s top four teams. With Notre Dame’s resounding win at Arkansas, the Canes’ season-opening win against the Irish continues to shine. Miami’s wins against South Florida and Florida — both of which had bye weeks — continues to collectively help separate the Canes.
Why they could be lower: The Canes have won all four games at home — at a point in the season when other contenders have had to win tough games on the road. Both Ohio State and Oregon have now won tough conference road games.
Need to know: Saturday’s game against FSU could be Miami’s last game during the regular season against a ranked opponent. Right now, Miami is on track for a top four seed, which means a first-round bye. If the Canes lose to FSU — and/or if they finish as the ACC runner-up — this could impact their seeding because so many SEC teams have loaded schedules in the back half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gave the Canes a 63.6% chance to win. The Canes are projected to win each of their remaining games and have the best chance in the conference (67.9%) to reach the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: It wasn’t an easy trip to the West Coast, where the Buckeyes held a precarious 7-3 halftime lead against Washington, but they found a way. This was Ohio State’s first road game, and it took until the second half to find an offensive groove, but this was a respectable Big Ten win to complement the season-opener against Texas.
Why they could be lower: Oregon’s win at Penn State currently looks better than Ohio State’s home win against the Longhorns. The committee could value that one win more than Ohio State’s two against Texas and Washington.
Need to know: Two of Ohio State’s next three games are on the road — Oct. 11 at Illinois and Oct. 18 at Wisconsin. The Illini rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Indiana with a close win against USC on Saturday. That should keep them in the top 25 and give the Buckeyes another opportunity against a ranked opponent, which they might need if Texas struggles in the SEC and the Buckeyes don’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 against Penn State.
Why they could be here: The Ducks earned their first statement win — and they did it in double overtime on the road — but it was their first win against an FBS opponent above .500. Northwestern is 2-2, Oklahoma State is 1-3 and has already fired its head coach, Oregon State is 0-5 and Montana State is an FCS program. As much hype as there has been around Penn State, the Nittany Lions remain a team without any wins against Power 4 opponents.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has been dominant against the weaker teams and found a way to beat one of the best teams — on the road. The win at Penn State is better than Ohio State’s home win against Texas, and the Ducks have two road wins compared to none for the Canes.
Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, and it has a bye week to prepare for the Hoosiers on Oct. 11.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Indiana. This might be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face during the regular season following USC’s loss to Illinois.
Why they could be here: The Aggies were able to build upon their win at Notre Dame by beating Auburn, giving Texas A&M some staying power in the playoff race. It helped that the Irish won convincingly at Arkansas, meaning A&M’s victory in South Bend remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country. Wins against UTSA and Utah State aren’t going to help the Aggies’ résumé, but their defensive performance against Auburn will impress the committee.
Why they could be lower: Oklahoma also beat Auburn in similar fashion, and has a strong nonconference win against Michigan. The Sooners don’t have a road win on par with beating the Irish in South Bend, though. Ole Miss has a case to be ranked ahead of both of them because of its full body of work, which now includes three SEC wins and a win against Tulane.
Need to know: Saturday’s game against Mississippi State could be tougher than originally expected. The Bulldogs pushed Tennessee to overtime in Week 5. The Aggies should be favored to win their next three games (Mississippi State, Florida and at Arkansas). If they lose one of those games, it puts pressure on them to have a winning record against the remaining three ranked opponents: LSU, Mizzou and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. Even though the Tigers lost, their defense is still one of the best the Aggies will face, and they’ll have home field advantage — possibly at night.
Why they could be here: The Rebels knocked off LSU, and have now won four straight games against respectable opponents, including three SEC teams (LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky). It also helped that Tulane beat Tulsa, and the Green Wave remains in contention for a playoff spot as one of the five highest ranked conference champions if they can win the American. Overall, this is one of the stronger résumés of the contenders, but Ole Miss is also passing the eye test as a complete team.
Why they could be lower: Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 4-5, and Georgia State is 1-3 in the Sun Belt.
Need to know: The Rebels have one of the more winnable remaining SEC schedules of the contenders, with back-to-back trips to Georgia and Oklahoma their biggest looming obstacles. The undefeated Rebels also have something key to impressing the selection committee — two quarterbacks capable of starting. The play of backup quarterbacks is critical to the selection process (it kept undefeated ACC champ Florida State out of the CFP in 2023, but helped Ohio State in during the 2014 season). With Austin Simmons injured, it’s clear backup Trinidad Chambliss is more than capable of leading a team toward an SEC title run.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Rebels also have an Oct. 25 trip to Oklahoma, but it’s unclear if the Sooners will have injured starting quarterback John Mateer back by then (unlikely).
Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye and the committee would rank them based on what they’ve done to-date — with quarterback John Mateer in the lineup. The committee doesn’t project ahead, so the hand injury he suffered in the first quarter isn’t a factor in this week’s prediction. Wins against Auburn and Michigan are still among the best in the country, and the nonconference win against the Wolverines can continue to help separate the Sooners from other teams that played weaker schedules.
Why they could be higher: Oklahoma was passing the eye test with Mateer in the lineup, and the committee doesn’t typically move teams around if they don’t play — unless teams around them are shuffled. The group could give the Sooners more credit for wins against Michigan and Auburn than Ole Miss’ wins against Kentucky and Arkansas. Still, it’s hard for OU to win a debate against the Rebels’ entire résumé, which now includes the LSU win.
Need to know: The committee’s protocol requires their consideration of factors like injuries to key players. If Oklahoma loses a game or two with Mateer sidelined, the committee will understand the circumstance. That doesn’t mean it’s a hall pass to play poorly, but it does mean it can be overcome. A two-loss OU team that rebounds and runs the table with Mateer in the lineup (and playing like he did before he was injured), is almost a shoe-in for the playoff. They’d have to beat all ranked opponents in the second half of the season. The timeline for Mateer’s return, though, is uncertain. And as long as he’s out of the lineup, the committee will rank the Sooners based on if they look like a top-12 team with sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. in the lineup.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. This is suddenly an even bigger challenge, as Mateer should still be recovering from hand surgery. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 66.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The head-to-head with Alabama still looms large because it’s one of the tiebreakers the committee uses to help rank teams with comparable records. As long as FSU and Bama both have one loss, the committee would likely refer to its protocol. The group would also recognize Friday’s loss was in double overtime on the road, and so far, Virginia is a respectable 4-1 opponent. Virginia athletic director Carla Williams is a member of the selection committee, and while she can’t vote or participate in discussions about UVA, she can give information about what she saw from the Noles, and can provide information about her program.
Why they could be lower: The Noles didn’t pass the eye test. They were beaten up front, made two many mistakes early, and were playing from behind most of the game.
Need to know: FSU now has the fourth-best chance to reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN Analytics, behind Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Miami. This might be FSU’s last chance to impress the committee against a ranked opponent during the regular season.
Why they could be here: The Tide reasserted itself as a playoff contender, winning their first statement game of the season after a season-opening loss at Florida State. That head-to-head result, though, is keeping the Tide behind the Noles because it’s one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to rank comparable teams. Still, it was enough to push Alabama back into the playoff conversation after three straight wins and it keeps the Tide in the hunt to win the SEC.
Why they could be higher: The win at Georgia was on the road, and the Tide passed the eye test — something Florida State didn’t do this week.
Need to know: Alabama entered Saturday with the seventh toughest remaining schedule in the country, as five of the next seven opponents are ranked. Saturday’s win at Georgia gives the Tide a slight cushion in the SEC race.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Tennessee. The game against LSU won’t be easy, but Bama’s offense looks better. The Vols gave Georgia fits and could do the same to Bama.
Why they could be here: The head-to-head loss to the Tide will keep Georgia below Alabama, but the same tiebreaker will keep Georgia ahead of the Vols. The win against Tennessee still looks good, even as the Vols struggled to beat Mississippi State. The overtime win against Tennessee is all they have, though, as home wins against Austin Peay and Marshall don’t help their case.
Why they could be lower: Georgia was fortunate to beat Tennessee, and Indiana is still undefeated.
Need to know: Rival Georgia Tech is still undefeated following a scare against Wake Forest on Saturday and should be favored in each of its games leading into the regular-season finale.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. The Rebels might be better than last year, when they had what many believed to be a more talented team.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers escaped on Saturday with a 20-15 win at Iowa, a notoriously difficult place to play. A close win is better than a loss, just ask fellow contenders LSU and Florida State which dropped road games this week. It was the fewest points IU had scored this season, but Indiana now has back-to-back Big Ten wins and its first road win. It also helped IU that Illinois beat USC, further legitimizing the Hoosiers’ 63-10 beatdown of the Illini.
Why they could be lower: If IU is below Penn State after the Nittany Lions lost at home to Oregon, it would simply because more people in the committee meeting room think PSU is the more talented team. It would be tough to justify, though, given Penn State’s three wins weren’t against Power 4 teams. The committee might not think Illinois is a top 25 team, also leaving the Hoosiers without a win against a ranked opponent.
Need to know: The Hoosiers have a bye week to prepare for their Oct. 11 trip to Oregon. IU doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan, but the Hoosiers will have a more difficult path to the playoff this year than last with road trips to Oregon and Penn State still looming.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. The Ducks’ win at Penn State was proof the defending Big Ten champs are still at the top of the league, along with Ohio State. If IU could pull off the upset in Autzen, it would be one of the biggest of the season.
Why they could be here: The loss to Georgia is keeping the Vols behind the Bulldogs, and they got a scare on Saturday at Mississippi State before winning in overtime. The season-opening win against Syracuse doesn’t look as impressive after the Orange lost 38-3 to Duke. Unlike LSU, though, the Vols haven’t had any trouble finding points.
Why they could be lower: The Vols lost at home to Georgia, which took a slight hit after the Bulldogs lost to Alabama. Meanwhile, LSU lost on the road to undefeated Ole Miss. It’s possible the committee would have LSU ahead of Tennessee and Penn State.
Need to know: The Vols have a bye week to prepare for Arkansas before back-to-back SEC road games against Alabama and Kentucky.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. The Tide has improved each week since its loss to Florida State and is favored to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions are a talented team, but don’t have the résumé to show for it. With wins against Villanova, FIU and Nevada, Penn State has the worst résumé of all the contenders. The committee considers how teams lose, too, and the gap between Oregon and Penn State clearly isn’t that wide.
Why they could be lower: LSU lost on the road to an undefeated Ole Miss team, while PSU lost at home. LSU also has wins against Clemson and Florida, and while those teams have struggled this year, they’re still better than what PSU has on its résumé.
Need to know: If Penn State doesn’t beat Ohio State, it’s not a lock to reach the playoff at 10-2. This is already a dangerous spot for the Nittany Lions, as they would be bumped out of the CFP to make room the fourth and fifth highest-ranked conference champions. In this scenario, both the Big 12 and American champs are ranked outside of the projected top 10. If Penn State loses to Ohio State, it has to beat Indiana to have a chance.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. If the Nittany Lions couldn’t beat Oregon at home, how are they going to beat the defending national champs on the road?
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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