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The annual rate of inflation in the US has hit its highest level in more than three decades, fed by faster than expected rises in the cost of fuel and food.

The headline consumer prices measure rose to 6.2% in October – a level not seen since 1990 – after a 0.9% surge on the previous month.

It represented a sharp acceleration in the cost of living that is being experienced globally, including the UK, as economies reopen from COVID-19 disruption but are hampered by supply struggling to keep pace with demand.

The bottlenecks have been exacerbated by worker shortages – hampering both production and deliveries.

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President Biden has pledged action to tackle high fuel costs. File pic

The price surge is a concern because it risks harming spending power in the recovery from the pandemic disruption, but central banks can only do so much to limit the pace because things like energy costs are outside their control.

The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both last week maintained their views that much of the factors behind rising inflation are “transitory” – that they are temporary factors and inflation will fall back in the medium term.

But while the Fed took some action to take some heat out of the economy and prices, its counterpart in London stopped short of a policy response through an interest rate rise, as financial markets had expected.

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The UK’s inflation rate currently stands at 3.1%, but is tipped to rise sharply when the next set of figures is released next week.

The Bank expects the CPI measure to rise above 5% next year.

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‘Interest rate rise wouldn’t tackle supply issues’

In the case of the US, economists also believe there is more inflation to come, as factory gate data suggests higher costs in the early supply chain.

Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, told the Reuters news agency: “Supply disruptions and the recovery of services poses a substantial concern that higher-than-expected inflation could persist for longer than the Fed believes.

“We expect goods inflation to hand the baton to services over the course of the next year, but all signs indicate that supply chain bottlenecks will keep fanning the flames on inflation in the near term.”

The country’s latest employment figures showed wage growth at an eight-month high.

President Joe Biden, who reacted to the figures by saying they were a “top priority”, is under pressure to help ease fuel prices by relaxing curbs on the country’s domestic oil producers after major oil-pumping nations snubbed last week his call to increase supply.

US pump costs are currently at seven-year highs ahead of the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays on the back of a 60% rise in wholesale costs in the year to date.

The dollar rallied and Bitcoin – increasingly seen as a new risk-off asset class – hit record highs in the wake of the inflation data, while stock markets fell back on Wall St as investors saw the prospect of a Fed U-turn ahead.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at ONADA, wrote: “It’s getting harder and harder for the Fed to describe inflation as transitory, and the response to today’s data suggests the narrative won’t work on investors anymore.

“The chances are, the central bank would have phased it out over the next couple of meetings anyway as it was losing credibility on that front, but today may have hastened that.”

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Burberry checks out contenders to replace Murphy as chairman

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Burberry checks out contenders to replace Murphy as chairman

Burberry is kicking off a formal search for a new chairman nearly a year after installing the latest in a string of chief executives charged with reviving the luxury fashion brand.

Sky News understands that Burberry is working with headhunters on a hunt for Gerry Murphy’s successor.

Mr Murphy, who also chairs Tesco, is not expected to step down this year, although the precise timing has yet to be formally determined, according to insiders.

Last summer, Sky News reported that Burberry had commenced a search for a non-executive director capable of taking over from Mr Murphy in due course.

That mandate is now said to have evolved into a more straightforward hunt for a new chair, sources suggested.

Planning for his departure comes as Burberry and other luxury goods manufacturers grapple with the uncertainty of swingeing tariffs amid an escalating international trade war.

The company is now being run by Joshua Schulman, the former Jimmy Choo boss, who was drafted in last July to arrest its decline.

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Mr Schulman replaced Jonathan Akeroyd, who left in the wake of a string of profit warnings.

Shares in Burberry closed on Tuesday at 738.8p, giving it a market value of about £2.6bn.

The stock is down by more than a third over the last year.

A spokesperson for Burberry said: “In the normal course of business, we look at succession planning for board roles as they reach term.”

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Food inflation highest in almost a year – more to come, industry warns

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Food inflation highest in almost a year - more to come, industry warns

Food inflation has hit its highest level in almost a year and could continue to go up, according to an industry body.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported a 2.6% annual lift in food costs during April – the highest level since May last year and up from a 2.4% rate the previous month.

The body said there was a clear risk of further increases ahead due to rising costs, with the sector facing £7bn of tax increases this year due to the budget last October.

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It warned that shoppers risked paying a higher price – but separate industry figures suggested any immediate blows were being cushioned by the effects of a continuing supermarket price war.

Kantar Worldpanel, which tracks trends and prices, said spending on promotions reached its highest level this year at almost 30% of total sales over the four weeks to 20 April.

It said that price cuts, mainly through loyalty cards, helped people to make the most of the Easter holiday with almost 20% of items sold at respective market leaders Tesco and Sainsbury’s on a price match.

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Its measure of wider grocery inflation rose to 3.8%, however.

Wider BRC data showed overall shop price inflation at -0.1% over the 12 months to April, with discounting largely responsible for weaker non-food goods.

But its chief executive, Helen Dickinson, said retailers were “unable to absorb” the surge in costs they were facing.

“The days of shop price deflation look numbered,” she said, as food inflation rose to its highest in 11 months, and non-food deflation eased significantly.

“Everyday essentials including bread, meat, and fish, all increased prices on the month. This comes in the same month retailers face a mountain of new employment costs in the form of higher employer National Insurance Contributions and increased NLW [national living wage],” she added.

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Five hacks to beat rising bills

While retail sales growth has proved somewhat resilient this year, it is believed big rises to household bills in April – from things like inflation-busting water, energy and council tax bills – will bite and continue to keep a lid on major purchases.

Also pressing on both consumer and business sentiment is Donald Trump’s trade war – threatening further costs and hits to economic growth ahead.

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A further BRC survey, also published on Tuesday, showed more than half of human resources directors expect to reduce hiring due to the government’s planned Employment Rights Bill.

The bill, which proposes protections for millions of workers including guaranteed minimum hours, greater hurdles for sacking new staff and increased sick pay, is currently being debated in parliament.

The BRC said one of the biggest concerns was that guaranteed minimum hours rules would hit part-time roles.

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Inside the Vietnamese factory preparing for the worst since Trump’s tariff threat

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Inside the Vietnamese factory preparing for the worst since Trump's tariff threat

On the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City, factory workers at Dony Garment have been working overtime for weeks.

Ever since Donald Trump announced a whopping 46% trade tariff on Vietnam, they’ve been preparing for the worst.

They’re rushing through orders to clients in three separate states in America.

Sewing machines buzz with the sound of frantic efforts to do whatever they can before Mr Trump’s big decision day. He may have put his “Liberation Day” tariffs on pause for 90 days, but no one in this factory is taking anything for granted.

Staff have been working overtime
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Staff have been working overtime

Workers like Do Thi Anh are feeling the pressure.

“I have two children to raise. If the tariffs are too high, the US will buy fewer things. I’ll earn less money and I won’t be able to support my children either. Luckily here our boss has a good vision,” she tells me.

Do Thi Anh
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Do Thi Anh

That vision was crafted back in 2021. When COVID struck, they started to look at diversifying their market.

Previously they used to export 40% of their garments to America. Now it’s closer to 20%.

The cheery-looking owner of the firm, Pham Quang Anh, tells me with a resilient smile: “We see it as dangerous to depend on one or two markets. So, we had to lose profit and spend on marketing for other markets.”

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That foresight could pay off in the months to come. But others are in a far more vulnerable state.

Some of Mr Pham’s colleagues in the industry export all their garments to America. If the 46% tariff is enforced, it could destroy their businesses.

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Doubts US will start making what Vietnam delivers

Down by the Saigon River, young couples watch on as sunset falls between the glimmering skyscrapers that stand as a testament to Vietnam’s miracle growth.

Cuong works in finance
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Cuong works in finance

Cuong, an affluent-looking man who works in finance, questions the logic and likelihood that America will start making what Vietnam has spent years developing the labour, skills and supply chains to reliably deliver.

“The United States’ GDP is so high. It’s the largest in the world right now. What’s the point in trying to get jobs from developing countries like Vietnam and other Asian nations? It’s unnecessary,” he tells me.

But the Trump administration claims China is using Vietnam to illegally circumvent tariffs, putting “Made in Vietnam” labels on Chinese products.

There’s no easy way to assess that claim. But market watchers believe Vietnam does need to signal its willingness to crack down on so-called “trans-shipments” if it wants to cut a deal with Washington.

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Vietnam can’t afford to alienate China

The US may also demand a major cutback in Chinese manufacturing in Vietnam.

That will be a much harder deal to strike. Vietnam can’t afford to alienate its big brother.

Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam
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Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam

Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam, is however cautiously optimistic.

“If Vietnam goes into these trade talks saying we will be a reliable manufacturer of the core products you need and the core products America wants to sell, the outcome could be good,” he says.

But the key question is just how much influence China will have on Vietnamese negotiators.

Anything above 10-20% tariffs would be intensively challenging

This moment is a huge test of Vietnam’s resilience.

Anything like 46% tariffs would be ruinous. Analysts say 10-20% would be survivable. Anything above, intensely challenging.

But this looming threat is also an opportunity for Vietnam to negotiate and grow. Not, though, without some very testing concessions.

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