Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has admitted he is “very uneasy” about high inflation – but dismissed the idea that Britain could face a 1970s style wage-price spiral.
Mr Bailey was being questioned by MPs over the Bank’s latest decision to leave interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.1% – surprising investors – despite inflation being higher than its 2% target and on course to top 5% in coming months.
Speaking to the Commons Treasury select committee, he defended the decision not to act by saying he wanted to first see an answer to the “puzzle” of what has happened to the jobs market after the furlough scheme ended in September.
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Mr Bailey said: “I am very uneasy about the inflation situation.
“It is not of course where we want it to be, to have inflation above target.”
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Pressed on the danger of a wage-price spiral – where workers ask for more money to cover rising inflation and those demands result in higher prices, which then in turn prompts further wage demands, Mr Bailey said: “The structure of the economy, the structure of the labour market is very different to the 1970s.
“I tend to play down the comparison with the 1970s.
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“Of course the inflation story in the 1970s was much worse, and persistent throughout the decade.”
Mr Bailey said one reason was that, even though some employers were having to pay more to hire new staff “that doesn’t necessarily translate at the moment into paying their existing staff more”.
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0:51
‘Supply shocks’ caused by COVID and Brexit
He added: “We are a very long way from the 1970s.”
Interest rates were slashed to 0.1% early on during the pandemic in order to try to help the UK weather the coronavirus crisis which saw much of Britain’s economic activity suspended.
But as the economy recovers and with inflation surging, there is pressure to increase rates – a lever traditionally seen as a tool by which central banks can keep a lid on price rises.
The Bank governor reiterated that the recent decision on interest rates was a “very close call”.
On the one hand, he said, Britain’s economic recovery was starting to slow partly due to supply chain strains dragging on growth.
But at the same time, the energy market and global goods prices were pushing up inflation.
Image: Higher energy prices are among the factors behind rising inflation
Rehearsing his previously-stated rationale for not hiking interest rates, Mr Bailey said that doing so was not “going to supply more gas or supply more computer chips”.
He added that by the time of the Bank’s next interest rate meeting it would know more about what had happened to the one million jobs that were still on furlough when the scheme ended.
Mr Bailey was speaking a day ahead of official labour market figures which will for the first time give an indication of the impact of the withdrawal of that support on UK payrolls.
Inflation figures out on Wednesday, expected to show the rate of price increases at their highest level in nearly a decade, will also be closely watched by the Bank.
Michael Saunders, a member of the BoE’s rate-setting committee who did vote for a rate rise earlier this month, backed the governor in agreeing that there was “no risk of a wage-price spiral”.
But Mr Saunders told MPs his fear about not increasing interest rates now was that it would mean when they do eventually have to go up, the increase may have to be faster and potentially higher.
English water companies have collectively been given the lowest environmental rating by the Environment Agency (EA) since records began.
Companies were ranked on a scale of one to four stars. Out of a maximum score of 36 stars for all nine companies, the firms together scored 19, the lowest since the EA began monitoring.
The only utility to receive the highest four-star rank was Severn Trent, the agency said in its annual performance assessment.
The number of serious incidents, in which “significant” environmental harm was caused, increased by 60% last year compared to 2023.
Just three companies were responsible for the vast majority of incidents.
Thames Water – the country’s biggest supplier – Southern Water and Yorkshire Water were responsible for 81% of all incidents.
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Only two firms out of nine – Northumbrian Water and Wessex Water – recorded no serious incidents.
More monitoring, inspections and data have meant that knowledge of pollution in English waterways is now greater than ever. In turn, the amount of reporting has been greater.
Other factors driving the figures are underinvestment and poor maintenance of infrastructure, as well as wet and stormy weather.
Firms have again been called on by the Environment Agency to “urgently” improve their performance. There had previously been a trend of improvement since records began in 2011, but the latest figures indicated a “dip”.
In addition to pollution incidents, companies were assessed on self-reporting and compliance with permits.
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Is Thames Water a step closer to nationalisation?
A separate report by water regulator Ofwat published on Thursday showed “mixed” performance with improvements in sewer flooding and pipe leakage, but only two companies reported a reduction in pollution incidents over five years.
Regulation of the sector has been criticised in a once-in-a-generation review of the water industry by career civil servant Sir Jon Cunliffe. In the wake of it, the government says Ofwat is to be retired.
Pressure has mounted on utilities across the UK as the public has sought action on poor water quality and rising bills.
An autistic man who was told he could no longer stack shelves at Waitrose when he asked to be paid has been offered a job by Asda.
Tom Boyd, 28, began volunteering unpaid at the branch of WaitroseinCheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester, in 2021, supported by a care worker, to develop skills for the workplace on a further education course he was taking.
The work gave him a sense of “purpose and belonging”, his mother, Frances Boyd, told the BBC.
When she asked in July if he could be paid for a few hours every week, however, the supermarket’s head office told him he had to stop and could not return to the shop.
Ms Boyd said they felt “deeply let down” by the decision as he had taken great pride in his work, which included putting out stock and tidying the shelves.
“If I went in and saw him, he was smiling, and it gave him independence, a sense of purpose and belonging,” she said.
“He gave over 600 hours of his time purely because he wanted to belong, contribute, and make a difference…
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“He deserved better. He deserved kindness, respect and the chance for all his hard work to mean something.”
Mr Boyd has now been offered two paid five-hour shifts each week by Asda.
“It’s overwhelming and they are flexible to say if at any time he is struggling they are fine,” his mother said.
Welcoming the news on X, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said he hoped it would lead to more employers accepting a neurodivergent code of best practice he has launched.
An Asda spokesperson said that when the store heard about Mr Boyd’s desire to find meaningful work they knew he would be a “fantastic fit” and were delighted to offer him a role.
“We know that finding meaningful work can be especially challenging for individuals with learning disabilities or difficulties,” they said.
“Asda has a Supported Internship Programme and partnership with DFN Project SEARCH, through which we have welcomed over 30 talented new colleagues into roles across our stores. We have seen the positive impact this has for the individuals who join and for our colleagues and customers too.”
A Waitrose spokesperson said they “care deeply” about helping people into the workplace who might not otherwise be given a chance and that the chain is currently investigating what happened to Mr Boyd.
“We’d like to welcome Tom back, in paid employment, and are seeking support from his family and the charity to do so. We hope to see him back with us very soon,” they added.
US sanctions against Russia’s two largest energy companies, the state-owned Rosneft and privately held Lukoil, are perhaps the most significant economic measures imposed by the West since the invasion of Ukraine.
If fully implemented, they have the potential to significantly choke off the flow of fossil fuel revenue that funds Russia’s war machine, but their power lies not in directly denying Russia access to the tankers, ports and refineries that make the oil trade turn, but the US financial system that greases the wheels.
Ever since the invasion, the Russian government has proved masterful at evading sanctions, aided and abetted by allies of economic convenience and an oil industry with decades of experience.
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2:58
New US sanctions on Russia: What do we know?
While the West, principally the EU, has largely turned off the taps and stopped buying Russian oil, China, India and Turkey became the largest consumers, with a shadow fleet of tankers ensuring exports continued to flow.
Data from the Centre for Research into Energy and Clean Air (CREA) shows that while fossil fuel revenues have fallen from more than €1bn a day before the war, they have remained above €600m since the start of 2023, only dipping towards €500m in the last month.
None of that oil has been heading for the US, but these sanctions will directly impact the ability of the Russian companies, and anyone doing business with them, to operate within America’s financial orbit.
According to the order from the US Office for Foreign Asset Control, the sanctions block all assets of the two companies, their subsidiaries and a number of named individuals, as well as preventing US citizens or financial institutions from doing business with them.
It also threatens foreign financial institutions that “facilitate transactions… involving Russia’s military-industrial base” with direct or secondary sanctions.
Image: Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting in Moscow.
Pic: Sputnik/Reuters
In practice, the measures should prevent the two companies from accessing not just dollars, but trading markets, insurance and other services with any financial connection to the US.
Taken in harness with similar steps announced by the UK earlier this month, analysts believe they can have a genuinely chilling effect on the market for Russian oil and gas.
Russia’s customers for oil in China, India and Turkey will also be affected, with the largest companies, state-owned and private, expected to be unwilling to take the risk of engaging directly with sanctioned entities.
Indian companies are already reported to be “recalibrating” their imports following the announcement, which came just a week after Donald Trump announced an additional 25% import tariff on Indian goods as punishment for the country’s reliance on Russian oil.
That does not mean that Russian oil and gas exports will cease. There are other unsanctioned Russian energy companies that can still trade, and ever since the first barrel of oil was tapped, the industry has proved adept at evading sanctions intended to interrupt its flow from one country or another.
Any significant increase in the oil price beyond the 5% seen in the aftermath of the announcement could also put pressure on the White House, which is at least as sensitive to fuel prices at home as it is to foreign wars.
But analysts Kpler expect the sanctions to cause “an immediate, short-term hiatus in Russian crude exports, as it will take time for sellers to reorganise and rebuild their trading systems to circumvent restrictions and ease buyers’ concerns”.
And Russian gas will, for now, continue to flow into Europe, where distaste for Vladimir Putin‘s imperial ambitions has not killed the appetite for his fuel. While the EU has this week imposed sanctions on liquified natural gas (LNG), they will not be fully enforced until 2027.