“Take it from me, please don’t come… it’s bad here.”
This is one of hundreds of messages sent by migrants on the Belarus border seen by Sky News. The texts warn others not to follow in their footsteps.
“To those who are saying ‘the border is open’, it’s not open. It’s a lie,” another migrant urges. “Smugglers are spreading these rumours.”
Thousands of migrants have been gathering at the border hoping to enter Poland.
Buses and planes are being organised to relocate some of the 2,000 men, women and children at the border after two weeks of rising tensions.
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Many come from Iraq and Syria, with a number of Iraqi Kurds among them.
At least one repatriation flight is set to take place today and will return some of the migrants to Iraq.
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Harsh conditions mean many at the border may take up the offer to return home.
Messages shared on social media show some migrants are scared, tired and regret having attempted the journey.
The texts also show those selling visas to Belarus have hiked up their prices in an attempt to capitalise on the migrant rush.
Migrants have spent thousands attempting to reach the EU, with some claiming they were attacked during their journey.
One man says: “Take it from me, please don’t come and join everyone… It’s bad here. I paid [smuggler’s name] 4000 euros (£3,357) and I failed to cross.
“On top of that, we were beaten.”
In a different chat, a man makes the same claim: “The Belarusian army started to beat anyone who comes near the wire.”
Returning home is on the minds of many, as one man explains: “I wish that I didn’t come. I paid 3800 euros (£3190) and I have spent a thousand while I’ve been here. Now I will need to pay 800 euros(£670) for my return ticket home.”
The mood has changed and many are resigned. Some believe the moment to make the dash into Europe has passed. They blame those who arrived before them and alongside them.
“The mass gatherings have ruined everything for us,” one man complains. “If people didn’t gather as they are now, tens of thousands would have crossed easily. We have lost the opportunity.”
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2:24
Sky News goes inside the migrant camp on the Belarus border.
Some still have hope and are attempting to make the journey. One person currently in Iraq is one of many online searching for answers on Telegram, a messaging app.
“What is the situation there? Based on what I understood, people are coming there now,” he asks in a group chat.
A migrant who claims to have made the journey replies: “It is very tense at the border. It’s similar to what you see on the news.”
Some ask for information and reassurance despite reaching as far as Minsk, the capital of Belarus.
“I just saw the news on Facebook but I am in Minsk now and can’t leave… I am a girl and by myself. I have no one with me,” one woman writes.
Others encourage her to pay a smuggler $3000 (£2,200) to help her across the border, through Poland and into Germany – a route many migrants say they intend to travel.
Frightened, she replies: “I don’t know. I am scared and don’t speak the language.”
Many migrants in these groups appear distrustful, confused and uncertain about the situation.
A video shared in one Telegram chat shows Polish authorities stopping migrants from crossing the border. The user asks: “How do we know this is true”. No one replies.
Basic questions are asked: Are there still flights? How much is a winter coat? What’s the cheapest visa?
And pleas for help are shared.
A father-of-three has fallen sick on the border. His nephew writes: “I am writing this and begging as there is someone’s life in danger right now.
“My uncle is now lying on the ground in a very critical condition… his friends can’t look after him anymore.”
He continues: “I am writing this out of despair… I appeal to anyone who can help us take him to the hospital or contact charities. I know his location on the border.”
The EU and NATO accuse Belarus of giving migrants tourist visas and encouraging them to enter EU countries like Poland in retaliation to sanctions imposed by the Union.
Adverts for Belarusian visas are still easily found online.
Belarus denies creating the crisis and accuses Poland of not handling the situation properly.
Belarus, as well as EU countries Lithuania and Latvia, reported a sharp increase in migrants attempting to cross from Belarus since the summer.
Analysis of the number of flights to the Belarus capital Minsk from Iraq in the summer shows a substantial rise this year. The flights increased by 75% rise compared to the average number of flights between the countries before the pandemic in 2018 and 2019.
Then, after months of tension, the migrant crisis on the Belarus-Poland border escalated this month.
On 6 November, migrants were seen gathering in Minsk.
It’s not yet clear why but today migrants have started gathering in very large groups in Minsk Nemiga district. Perhaps, something is going to happen pic.twitter.com/JfU6BPx392
The large numbers of migrants heading to the border prompted Poland’s Ministry of National Defence to tweet this aerial footage on 8 November.
It shows a group of migrants in Kuznica, a Polish border village.
The Ministry tweeted another video on 8 November, directly accusing Belarus of escorting and encouraging the migrants to attempt to breach the border.
The tweet reads: “All activities of the migrants are carried out under the supervision and control of Belarusian soldiers.”
The following day, the crisis escalated. Poland deployed more than 12,000 soldiers to help protect its border.
Polish forces at the border have been using water cannon and tear gas in attempt to push back migrants, who in turn have thrown stones and logs across the barbed wire fence.
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1:15
Water cannon were used on migrants at the border between Belarus and Poland.
Some migrants claim to have been violently abused. The men in this video, who are Iraqi Kurds, allege Belarusian police set dogs on them. At the end of the video, the man speaking says the group have no food or water.
Warning this video contains images of injuries.
On Wednesday, the EU pledged to send 700,000 euros (£587,000) worth of food, blankets and other aid to migrants at the Belarus border to ease the harsh conditions at the border.
However Poland’s defence minister Mariusz Blaszczak cautioned the crisis will not go away quickly.
Speaking on Polish public radio, he said: “We have to be prepared that this situation on the Belarusian border won’t settle swiftly.”
Credits:
Writing and reporting: Jack Taylor, Sanya Burgess, Adam Parker
Data journalism: Kieran Devine, Ganesh Rao
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?
What caused the California wildfires?
There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.
The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.
But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.
However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.
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1:35
LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’
What are Santa Ana winds?
So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.
Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.
It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.
These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.
They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.
The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.
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0:59
Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared
The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect
The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.
“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”
What role has climate change played?
California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.
Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.
But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.
But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.
Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.
“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.
“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”
The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.
A billowing cloud of black smoke loomed over the main shopping street with its fancy restaurants and designer shops, threatening to destroy what many here consider to be their slice of paradise.
It is a reminder of the destructive power of this sort of weather.
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1:02
Martha Kelner reports from Pacific Palisades
Reza, a lifelong resident of Pacific Palisades, was evacuating with what belongings he could fit in his SUV.
“This is surreal, this is unbelievable,” he said.
“I’ve lived here all my life but this is like nothing I’ve ever seen before. This is the worst of the worst.
“I’ve never seen it with these winds, we just keep praying that the direction changes. But if the direction changes it’s to the detriment of somebody else, that’s the horrible part about it all.”
January is not normally wildfire season, but these are not ordinary circumstances, the blazes being propelled by the strongest winds in southern California for more than a decade, fuelled by drought conditions.
Authorities are warning that the winds will grow stronger overnight, meaning that conditions will likely worsen before they get better.
Police and the fire department went door to door, urging people to evacuate or risk losing their lives.
On the main road out of town, there was gridlock traffic, with some abandoning their cars to flee on foot.
On Mount Holyoake Avenue, Liz Lerner, an 84-year-old with congestive heart failure, was on her driveway and visibly panicked.
“I don’t drive, and I’m by myself,” she said.
“I have no relatives, I’m 100% alone and I don’t know what to do. My father built this house in 1949, this is my family home and this is the end. I’ve never seen anything like this.”
Around the corner, another man was hosing down his multi-million dollar home in a bid to save his property from the fire bounding towards it from a nearby canyon.
“I can’t decide whether to evacuate or stay and carry on hosing down my house,” he said.
“It’s hard to know which way the flames are heading.”
Other blazes were breaking out across LA with firefighting planes grounded because of winds which are growing stronger by the hour.
More homes, neighbourhoods and lives are under threat from this perfect and petrifying storm.
Soldiers working within the UK’s special forces discussed concerns that Afghans who posed no threat were being murdered in raids against suspected Taliban insurgents, an inquiry has been told.
One soldier, who was reading operational reports of SAS actions, said in an email in 2011 that they feared that UK special forces seemed “beyond reproach”, with “a golden pass allowing them to get away with murder”.
Another soldier said they were aware of rumours of special forces soldiers using “dropped weapons” – which were munitions allegedly placed next to targets to give the impression they were armed when they were shot.
It was also suggested that the act was known as a “Mr Wolf” – supposedly a reference to the fixer “Winston Wolfe” from the film Pulp Fiction.
The claims come from hundreds of pages of documents detailing evidence given to a public inquiry into alleged war crimes committed by British special forces soldiers in Afghanistan between 2010 and 2013.
The independent inquiry was ordered by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) after the BBC reported claims that SAS soldiers from one squadron had killed 54 people in suspicious circumstances during the war in Afghanistan more than a decade ago.
The inquiry is examining a number of night-time raids carried out by British forces from mid-2010 to mid-2013.
On Wednesday, it released evidence from seven UK special forces (UKSF) witnesses who gave their evidence in secretfor national security reasons and cannot be named.
None of the soldiers who gave evidence to the inquiry, which opened in 2023, said they had witnessed any such behaviour themselves.
‘Fighting age males’
One of the soldiers, known only as N1799, told the inquiry they had raised concerns in 2011 about a unit referred to as UKSF1 after having a conversation about its operations with one of its members on a training course.
“During these operations it was said that ‘all fighting age males are killed’ on target regardless of the threat they posed, this included those not holding weapons,” their witness statement said.
“It was also indicated that ‘fighting age males’ were being executed on target, inside compounds, using a variety of methods after they had been restrained. In one case it was mentioned a pillow was put over the head of an individual before being killed with a pistol.”
The soldier said he was also informed that weapons were being “dropped” next to victims “to give the impression that a deceased individual had been armed when shot”, the inquiry heard.
Such a dropped weapon was colloquially known as a “Mr Wolf”, but N1799 stated he had “no idea at all” where the term came from.
Counsel to the inquiry Oliver Glasgow KC asked: “When you heard it described as a ‘Mr Wolf’, was that used by one person or by more than one person or can you not remember?”
N1799 replied: “At least two or three people.”
Mr Glasgow continued: “Have you seen the film Pulp Fiction by Quentin Tarantino, where the individual who introduces himself as Mr Wolf says ‘I’m Mr Wolf and I’m here to solve problems’? Do you remember that?
The witness said: “No, I don’t.”
Mr Glasgow said: “Well, it is probably not essential viewing for anyone, but that particular individual in that film, he acts to clear up problems and to make crimes go away, does he not?”
N1799 responded: “Right. I had not put two and two together.”
The inquiry heard that N1799 escalated their concerns to other senior officers who took them seriously.
But, questioned by Mr Glasgow on whether they had any concerns for their own personal wellbeing after making allegations, the witness said: “I did then and I still do now.”
‘Mud-slinging’
Another officer, referred to as N2107, emailed colleagues expressing his disbelief at summaries of operations which suggested detained suspects had been allowed back into compounds where they were then said to have picked up weapons and attempted to attack the unit.
Meanwhile, a special forces commanding officer told the inquiry he believed reporting allegations of murder to his counterpart in another unit may have been seen as “mud-slinging”.
He said there was an “at times fractious and competitive” relationship between his unit and the accused unit.
In one of the hearings, he was asked whether he thought about reporting the allegations to his direct counterpart within the unit, but said it was a “deliberate act” to report up rather than sideway as it may be seen as “mud-slinging”.
British military police have previously conducted several inquiries into allegations of misconduct by forces in Afghanistan, including those made against the SAS.
However, the MoD has said none found enough evidence for prosecutions.
The inquiry’s aim is to ascertain whether there was credible information of extra-judicial killings, whether investigations by the military police years later into N1799’s concerns were properly conducted, and if unlawful killings were covered up.