“Take it from me, please don’t come… it’s bad here.”
This is one of hundreds of messages sent by migrants on the Belarus border seen by Sky News. The texts warn others not to follow in their footsteps.
“To those who are saying ‘the border is open’, it’s not open. It’s a lie,” another migrant urges. “Smugglers are spreading these rumours.”
Thousands of migrants have been gathering at the border hoping to enter Poland.
Buses and planes are being organised to relocate some of the 2,000 men, women and children at the border after two weeks of rising tensions.
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Many come from Iraq and Syria, with a number of Iraqi Kurds among them.
At least one repatriation flight is set to take place today and will return some of the migrants to Iraq.
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Harsh conditions mean many at the border may take up the offer to return home.
Messages shared on social media show some migrants are scared, tired and regret having attempted the journey.
The texts also show those selling visas to Belarus have hiked up their prices in an attempt to capitalise on the migrant rush.
Migrants have spent thousands attempting to reach the EU, with some claiming they were attacked during their journey.
One man says: “Take it from me, please don’t come and join everyone… It’s bad here. I paid [smuggler’s name] 4000 euros (£3,357) and I failed to cross.
“On top of that, we were beaten.”
In a different chat, a man makes the same claim: “The Belarusian army started to beat anyone who comes near the wire.”
Image: Users discussed their plans in open Telegram groups
Returning home is on the minds of many, as one man explains: “I wish that I didn’t come. I paid 3800 euros (£3190) and I have spent a thousand while I’ve been here. Now I will need to pay 800 euros(£670) for my return ticket home.”
The mood has changed and many are resigned. Some believe the moment to make the dash into Europe has passed. They blame those who arrived before them and alongside them.
“The mass gatherings have ruined everything for us,” one man complains. “If people didn’t gather as they are now, tens of thousands would have crossed easily. We have lost the opportunity.”
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2:24
Sky News goes inside the migrant camp on the Belarus border.
Some still have hope and are attempting to make the journey. One person currently in Iraq is one of many online searching for answers on Telegram, a messaging app.
“What is the situation there? Based on what I understood, people are coming there now,” he asks in a group chat.
A migrant who claims to have made the journey replies: “It is very tense at the border. It’s similar to what you see on the news.”
Some ask for information and reassurance despite reaching as far as Minsk, the capital of Belarus.
“I just saw the news on Facebook but I am in Minsk now and can’t leave… I am a girl and by myself. I have no one with me,” one woman writes.
Image: The prices and phone numbers for smugglers have been shared in these groups. Here someone tells a woman she can be smuggled for $3,000
Others encourage her to pay a smuggler $3000 (£2,200) to help her across the border, through Poland and into Germany – a route many migrants say they intend to travel.
Frightened, she replies: “I don’t know. I am scared and don’t speak the language.”
Many migrants in these groups appear distrustful, confused and uncertain about the situation.
A video shared in one Telegram chat shows Polish authorities stopping migrants from crossing the border. The user asks: “How do we know this is true”. No one replies.
Image: A video of migrants being stopped by Polish authorities was shared, with the questions: ‘How do we know this is true?
Basic questions are asked: Are there still flights? How much is a winter coat? What’s the cheapest visa?
And pleas for help are shared.
A father-of-three has fallen sick on the border. His nephew writes: “I am writing this and begging as there is someone’s life in danger right now.
“My uncle is now lying on the ground in a very critical condition… his friends can’t look after him anymore.”
He continues: “I am writing this out of despair… I appeal to anyone who can help us take him to the hospital or contact charities. I know his location on the border.”
The EU and NATO accuse Belarus of giving migrants tourist visas and encouraging them to enter EU countries like Poland in retaliation to sanctions imposed by the Union.
Adverts for Belarusian visas are still easily found online.
Image: Adverts for Belarusian visas are still easily found across social media sites
Belarus denies creating the crisis and accuses Poland of not handling the situation properly.
Belarus, as well as EU countries Lithuania and Latvia, reported a sharp increase in migrants attempting to cross from Belarus since the summer.
Analysis of the number of flights to the Belarus capital Minsk from Iraq in the summer shows a substantial rise this year. The flights increased by 75% rise compared to the average number of flights between the countries before the pandemic in 2018 and 2019.
Then, after months of tension, the migrant crisis on the Belarus-Poland border escalated this month.
On 6 November, migrants were seen gathering in Minsk.
It’s not yet clear why but today migrants have started gathering in very large groups in Minsk Nemiga district. Perhaps, something is going to happen pic.twitter.com/JfU6BPx392
The large numbers of migrants heading to the border prompted Poland’s Ministry of National Defence to tweet this aerial footage on 8 November.
It shows a group of migrants in Kuznica, a Polish border village.
The Ministry tweeted another video on 8 November, directly accusing Belarus of escorting and encouraging the migrants to attempt to breach the border.
The tweet reads: “All activities of the migrants are carried out under the supervision and control of Belarusian soldiers.”
The following day, the crisis escalated. Poland deployed more than 12,000 soldiers to help protect its border.
Polish forces at the border have been using water cannon and tear gas in attempt to push back migrants, who in turn have thrown stones and logs across the barbed wire fence.
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1:15
Water cannon were used on migrants at the border between Belarus and Poland.
Some migrants claim to have been violently abused. The men in this video, who are Iraqi Kurds, allege Belarusian police set dogs on them. At the end of the video, the man speaking says the group have no food or water.
Warning this video contains images of injuries.
On Wednesday, the EU pledged to send 700,000 euros (£587,000) worth of food, blankets and other aid to migrants at the Belarus border to ease the harsh conditions at the border.
However Poland’s defence minister Mariusz Blaszczak cautioned the crisis will not go away quickly.
Speaking on Polish public radio, he said: “We have to be prepared that this situation on the Belarusian border won’t settle swiftly.”
Credits:
Writing and reporting: Jack Taylor, Sanya Burgess, Adam Parker
Data journalism: Kieran Devine, Ganesh Rao
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won the election in Canada, according to Canadian broadcasters, but it is too soon to say whether they will form a majority government.
Mr Carney, who took over as prime minister after Justin Trudeau stepped down earlier this year, has beaten the leader of the Conservative Party Pierre Poilievre, according to CBC and CTV News projections.
However, it is too soon to say whether the Liberals will form a majority government, they added. The party has not yet secured the 172 electoral districts it needs for a majority.
Image: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Pic: Reuters
The election initially appeared to be a clear-cut race for the opposition Conservatives, who were enjoying a double-digit lead over the Liberals before Mr Trudeau resigned, and an intervention by Donald Trump led to a surge in support for Mr Carney’s party.
Mr Trump has repeatedly called for Canada to become the 51st US state since he was elected president for a second time and has imposed sweeping tariffs on Canada.
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1:02
Trump on why he wants Canada to be 51st state
Mr Carney has vowed to take a tougher approach with Washington over its tariffs and has said Canada will need to spend billions to reduce its reliance on the US.
Image: Liberal supporters celebrate after Canadian broadcasters project their party has retained power. Pics: Reuters
If Mr Carney’s party only captures a minority of the House’s 343 seats, he will be forced to negotiate with other parties in order to stay in power.
Such minority governments rarely last longer than two-and-a-half years in Canada.
Canadians went to the polls after 11 people were killed in a deadly attack at a Vancouver street fair over the weekend that led to the suspension of campaigning for several hours.
Police have ruled out terrorism and said the suspect is a local man with a history of mental health issues.
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Mr Carney previously ran Canada’s central bank and later became the first non-Briton to become governor of the Bank of England.
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Power supplies have been returning in Spain and Portugal after large parts, including the capitals Madrid and Lisbon, were hit by a huge outage on Monday.
Millions of people were caught up in the chaos after the mass blackout brought many areas to a standstill, with trains stopping, planes grounded, internet and mobile phone services cut, traffic lights and ATMs down, and some routine hospital operations suspended.
Spain‘s interior ministry declared a national emergency and the two countries’ governments convened emergency cabinet meetings as officials tried to find out what caused the outage which started around 12.30pm (11.30am UK time).
Image: A police car passes as vehicles wait in a traffic jam on the other side of the road in Madrid. Pic: Reuters
Image: People gather outside Barcelona-Sants train station during a power outage. Pic: Reuters
About half the electricity supplies in Spain have now been restored by the grid operator, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Monday evening, adding the rest should be back by Tuesday.
In a televised address, Mr Sanchez said authorities have not yet worked out what had caused the blackout in the Iberian Peninsula and were not ruling anything out.
He asked the public to refrain from speculation, and urged people to call emergency services only if really necessary.
Eduardo Prieto, the head of operations at Spanish power grid operator Red Electrica, said the event was unprecedented, calling it “exceptional and extraordinary”.
Meanwhile, Portugal‘s Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said power in his country would be fully restored in the coming hours.
He said all the state services remained operating in the country despite all the difficulties. He also said there was “no indication” a cyberattack was the cause.
Image: A chef in Madrid works in a dark kitchen with the aid of his phone’s flashlight. Pic: Reuters
Image: Fans are seen after Madrid Open matches were suspended due to a power outage. Pic: Reuters
‘Rare atmospheric phenomenon’
Portugal’s grid operator Ren claimed the outage was caused by a fault in the Spanish electricity grid, related to a “rare atmospheric phenomenon”.
Ren says that, due to extreme temperature variations in Spain, there were “anomalous oscillations” in very high-voltage lines.
It also says that given the complexity of the issue, it could take up to a week for the network to fully normalise again.
It comes as France briefly lost power following the outages in Spain and Portugal, French grid operator RTE said.
Parts of Madrid underground were evacuated and traffic lights in the city were not working, according to local media.
Play was suspended at the Madrid Open tennis tournament due to the outage – with Britain’s Jacob Fearnley forced off court in a critical moment during his third-round tie with Grigor Dimitrov.
The loss of power affected scoreboards and the camera above the court. Organisers later announced the tournament would not be able to resume on Monday, with afternoon and evening sessions cancelled.
What has been affected by the blackout?
Here’s what we know has been impacted so far:
:: Transport, including trains, metros and airports – with traffic lights also down.
:: Internet and mobile coverage.
:: Lighting in homes, businesses and other buildings, though backup generators are in place in many.
:: ATMs and card payments, as well as most till systems.
:: Lifts in buildings are stuck.
:: Electric car chargers and fuel pumps are also down.
:: Air conditioning units.
:: A significant quantity of water pumps, meaning some homes have no access to drinking water.
Airports affected
Aena, which runs international airports across Spain, said earlier that “some incidents were occurring” at the airports due to the outage.
The company added in a statement: “Contingency generators are active. Please check with your airline, as there may be disruptions to access and ground transportation.”
People ‘had nowhere to go’
Maddie Sephton, who is from west London, was on the Madrid Metro when the power outage occurred.
“We got on the train and everything was fine,” she told Sky News. “But then everything went dark.”
She was stuck on the train for 20 minutes until a staff member opened the doors manually.
Image: A metro worker passes underneath barricade tape to enter Legazpi Metro station after the outage. Pic: Reuters
Image: A view shows a transmission tower during a power outage near Barcelona in Spain. Pic: Reuters
Mrs Sephton says she was on her way to the airport at the time – and had to exit the station by walking up 15 flights of stairs with her luggage.
“No lifts are operating – making it difficult for elderly people with limited mobility,” she added.
Above ground, she said that “everyone is just standing around and waiting”.
Image: Medical staff relocate a patient in Pamplona, Pic: AP
Bars were unable to take card payments, cash machines are down, and traffic lights weren’t working either.
“I currently don’t have any internet service and just €15 in my wallet – I can’t withdraw any money from the ATM,” she added.
“A couple have offered to let us get a ride in their taxi to the airport. Their flight is at 4.30pm so they’re pretty relaxed – but my flight back to London is at 3pm and I’m nervous.”
Mrs Sephton said: “People are just walking but have nowhere to go, and nothing to do.”
Image: Traffic lights have stopped working following a power outage in downtown Lisbon, Portugal. Pic: AP
Image: People try to board a crowded bus after the subway stopped running following a power outage in Lisbon, Portugal. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, thousands of passengers had to be evacuated after the blackout left the metro service in Barcelona without power.
The blackout was also reported to have forced the closure of the city’s tram system and rendered some traffic lights there inoperable.
It has also impacted medical facilities, with hospitals in Madrid and Catalonia forced to suspend routine medical work. Staff have been able to attend to critical patients using power from backup generators.
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It comes as Metrovalencia, the urban rail system, encompassing both metro and tram services in Valencia, said traffic in the city was “disrupted” due to a “general power outage in the city”.
The outage also hit the Portuguese capital Lisbon and surrounding areas, as well as northern and southern parts of the country.
Portugal’s government said the incident appeared to stem from problems outside the country, an official told national news agency Lusa.
“It looks like it was a problem with the distribution network, apparently in Spain. It’s still being ascertained,” Cabinet Minister Leitão Amaro was quoted as saying.
It’s likely the outage will surpass Europe’s largest blackout to date when 56 million people in Italy and Switzerland lost power for up to 12 hours in 2023.
The cause of the outage is unclear. Portugal’s grid operator has blamed a “rare atmospheric phenomenon” that caused “anomalous oscillations” in high voltage power lines in Spain.
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Spain’s grid operator has yet to respond to that or provide an update on the cause. But it’s unlikely whatever caused the outage was a single, localised event.
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1:07
Mayhem in Spain after major power outage
A major power line going down can cause a large outage – as it did in 2021, when an interconnector between France and Spain failed leaving a million people without power for a few hours.
But it’s unlikely to cause a system-wide failure of the kind we’re seeing now.
However, when things do start to fail on a power grid, they can cascade uncontrollably.
Keeping a grid running is a constant and highly complex balancing act.
Image: People outside a terminal at Lisbon Airport during the blackout. Pic: Reuters
Spain’s mains AC electricity supply grid, like ours in the UK, runs at 50Hz. That frequency is based on the speed at which generating hardware such as gas and nuclear turbines spin.
If there are sudden fluctuations in power supply or demand – a power station failing or a high voltage power line going down, for example – the frequency of AC power in the transmission lines changes and circuit breakers trip to protect either the transmission network, or power plant hardware from burning out.
To prevent such failures, grid engineers constantly measure and forecast supply and demand to keep the grid balanced.
To protect the system in emergencies, they occasionally have to “shed load” by cutting power to parts of the grid – the reason we’ve all experienced the occasional short-lived power cut.
But if balance is lost, a grid can fail in a domino effect with sections of the grid tripping, then power plants shutting down to protect themselves from the drop in demand, one after another.
The challenge now, and it’s a nightmare for Spain and Portugal’s power engineers, is to gradually restore the grid section by section while maintaining the balance of supply and demand.
Act too fast, and the grid can trip again. Take too long and some power plants or substations might struggle to restart – especially if they rely on battery power to do so.
While some regions of Spain have already had power restored, and Portugal says its power will be back to normal within hours, it could take much longer for the system to be fully restored.