A new and more infectious version of the Delta variant now accounts for 15% of coronavirus cases in the UK, according to the latest government data.
AY.4.2 is an evolutionary spin-off of the original Delta variant first found in India.
The UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) designated it a ‘variant under investigation’ on 20 October.
Data shows it made up 14.7% of sequenced cases in the week ending 6 November and is continuing to grow.
But as AY.4.2 starts to take over, Sky News looks at how the new variant could affect people’s COVID immunity in the run-up to Christmas.
Advertisement
What do we know about AY.4.2?
AY.4.2 is a sub-lineage of the Delta variant.
More on Covid-19
Related Topics:
There are currently nine versions of Delta present in the UK.
But government experts have classified AY.4.2 as a ‘variant under investigation’ because it has accounted for a “slowly increasing proportion of cases in the UK” since September.
Imperial College London’s REACT-1 study suggested it could be up to 10% more infectious than Delta, first found in Kent in late 2020. Delta was around 60% more transmissible than Alpha.
Scientists are not sure why it appears to spread more easily.
But the latest UKHSA data suggests vaccines are just as effective against it as they are against Delta – and it could carry a slightly lesser risk of hospitalisation.
The REACT-1 study of 100,000 people between 19 and 5 November also showed only a third of people with AY.4.2 had the classic COVID symptoms of a cough, fever, loss or change in taste and smell – compared to 46% who had the original Delta variant.
Authors of the study said people with the new variant were less likely to show any other symptoms as well.
If I’ve had COVID recently, does a new variant mean I could get it again?
Both vaccines and natural infection offer varying levels of immunity from getting reinfected with COVID-19.
Previous studies have shown getting COVID gives people around 80% protection from getting reinfected within five months.
But there is not yet enough data on AY.4.2 to know how long natural immunity from the new variant might last.
This means that if you have been recently infected with AY.4.2 it is not clear whether you are largely protected from contracting the original Delta variant within the following months.
But if the vaccines are just as effective against it, catching it naturally could offer similar levels of protection, Dr Raghib Ali, of the University of Cambridge’s epidemiology unit, tells Sky News.
“We don’t have reinfection data yet,” he says.
“But what we do have is data that shows no real difference in vaccine effectiveness between AY.4.2 and Delta.
“Getting a vaccine induces an immune response that is based on the spike protein.
“And when you get infected naturally you also produce an immune response – so there shouldn’t be much difference.”
But he claims this only applies to people who have been vaccinated with two or three doses.
“In general, if you’ve been infected with Delta and you’ve had both vaccines, you should have good protection from AY.4.2 and vice versa,” he says.
A Harvard study has also showed that people who have had a combination of vaccines and natural infection have “substantially higher antibody responses” than people who have only been vaccinated.
“They have very good levels of protection,” Dr Ali adds.
“Because each time you are exposed to the vaccine or the virus, you develop an immune response.”
‘It’s not a hard shield’
Although most people develop some level of immunity from getting the virus naturally, it is not guaranteed, Dr Deepti Gurdasani warns.
“Neither natural infection nor vaccination should be seen as a hard shield,” the clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary University tells Sky News.
“You get more varying levels of immune response from natural infection than you do from vaccination.
“Not everyone who gets infected naturally seroconverts [produces an immune response].”
She also says lower immune responses are more common in people who get no or mild symptoms, as well as children and young people.
“Some don’t produce immune responses at all,” she adds.
“If you have had two doses and a natural infection – you have got some boosted immunity, but the protection you get from both is just a layer – it’s not absolute.”
Boosters, tests and hand washing important for Christmas
As Christmas approaches, with more socialising and case rates still considerably high, experts have warned the UK is facing a tough winter – and the NHS being overwhelmed.
And with immunity waning a few months after getting a second vaccine, both scientists are urging people to get booster jabs if they are eligible.
“There is more and more evidence that this [coronavirus] is a three-dose vaccine,” Dr Gurdasani says.
“Lots of people are at the stage now where they’re three or four-months post-vaccination and are getting breakthrough infections.
“It highlights the importance of boosters and of seeing each thing you do, whether that be a test, wearing a mask or recovering from infection, as a layer of protection – not absolute protection.”
Dr Ali adds: “The most important thing is still to have the vaccine, but it’s also true that the vaccine isn’t 100% effective.
“So if you’re mixing with vulnerable or elderly relatives over Christmas, basic interventions like taking a lateral flow test and washing your hands regularly are still important.”
Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.
Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.
Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.
Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.
“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”
Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.
“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”
Spreaker
This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spreaker cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spreaker cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spreaker cookies for this session only.
Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”
He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
10:43
Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France
Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.
Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.
Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.
With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.
The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.
It is “shameful” that black boys growing up in London are “far more likely” to die than white boys, Metropolitan Police chief Sir Mark Rowley has told Sky News.
In a wide-ranging interview with Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the commissioner saidthat relations with minority communities are “difficult for us”, while also speaking about the state of the justice system and the size of the police force.
Sir Mark, who came out of retirement to become head of the UK’s largest police force in 2022, said: “We can’t pretend otherwise that we’ve got a history between policing and black communities where policing has got a lot wrong.
“And we get a lot more right today, but we do still make mistakes. That’s not in doubt. I’m being as relentless in that as it can be.”
He said the “vast majority” of the force are “good people”.
However, he added: “But that legacy, combined with the tragedy that some of this crime falls most heavily in black communities, that creates a real problem because the legacy creates concern.”
Sir Mark, who also leads the UK’s counter-terrorism policing, said black boys growing up in London “are far more likely to be dead by the time they’re 18” than white boys.
“That’s, I think, shameful for the city,” he admitted.
“The challenge for us is, as we reach in to tackle those issues, that confrontation that comes from that reaching in, whether it’s stop and search on the streets or the sort of operations you seek.
“The danger is that’s landing in an environment with less trust.
“And that makes it even harder. But the people who win out of that [are] all of the criminals.”
Image: Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley
The commissioner added: “I’m so determined to find a way to get past this because if policing in black communities can find a way to confront these issues, together we can give black boys growing up in London equal life chances to white boys, which is not what we’re seeing at the moment.
“And it’s not simply about policing, is it?”
Sir Mark said: “I think black boys are several times more likely to be excluded from school, for example, than white boys.
“And there are multiple issues layered on top of each other that feed into disproportionality.”
‘We’re stretched, but there’s hope and determination’
Sir Mark said the Met is a “stretched service” but people who call 999 can expect an officer to attend.
“If you are in the middle of a crisis and something awful is happening and you dial 999, officers will get there really quickly,” Sir Mark said.
“I don’t pretend we’re not a stretched service.
“We are smaller than I think we ought to be, but I don’t want to give a sort of message of a lack of hope or a lack of determination.”
“I’ve seen the mayor and the home secretary fighting hard for police resourcing,” he added.
“It’s not what I’d want it to be, but it’s better than it might be without their efforts.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:39
How police tracked and chased suspected phone thief
‘Close to broken’ justice system facing ‘awful’ delays
Sir Mark said the criminal justice system was “close to broken” and can be “frustrating” for police officers.
“The thing that is frustrating is that the system – and no system can be perfect – but when the system hasn’t managed to turn that person’s life around and get them on the straight and narrow, and it just becomes a revolving door,” he said.
“When that happens, of course that’s frustrating for officers.
“So the more successful prisons and probation can be in terms of getting people onto a law-abiding life from the path they’re on, the better.
“But that is a real challenge. I mean, we’re talking just after Sir Brian Leveson put his report out about the close-to-broken criminal justice system.
“And it’s absolutely vital that those repairs and reforms that he’s talking about happen really quickly, because the system is now so stressed.”
Giving an example, the police commissioner went on: “We’ve got Snaresbrook [Crown Court] in London – it’s now got more than 100 cases listed for 2029.”
Sir Mark asked Trevor Phillips to imagine he had been the victim of a crime, saying: “We’ve caught the person, we’ve charged him, ‘great news, Mr Phillips, we’ve got him charged, they’re going to court’.
“And then a few weeks later, I see the trial’s listed for 2029. That doesn’t feel great, does it?”
Asked about the fact that suspects could still be on the streets for years before going to trial, Sir Mark conceded it’s “pretty awful”.
He added: “If it’s someone on bail, who might have stolen your phone or whatever, and they’re going in for a criminal court trial, that could be four years away. And that’s pretty unacceptable, isn’t it?”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
She pinned the primary blame for the Met’s culture on its past leadership and found stop and search and the use of force against black people was excessive.
At the time, Sir Mark, who had been commissioner for six months when the report was published, said he would not use the labels of institutionally racist, institutionally misogynistic and institutionally homophobic, which Baroness Casey insisted the Met deserved.
However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who helped hire Sir Mark – and could fire him – made it clear the commissioner agreed with Baroness Casey’s verdict.
A few months after the report, Sir Mark launched a two-year £366m plan to overhaul the Met, including increased emphasis on neighbourhood policing to rebuild public trust and plans to recruit 500 more community support officers and an extra 565 people to work with teams investigating domestic violence, sexual offences and child sexual abuse and exploitation.
A leading NHS hospital has warned measles is on the rise among children in the UK, after treating 17 cases since June.
Alder Hey Children’s Hospital in Liverpool said it is “concerned” about the increasing number of children and young people who are contracting the highly contagious virus.
It said the cases it has treated since June were for effects and complications of the disease, which, in rare cases, can be fatal if left untreated.
“We are concerned about the increasing number of children and young people who are contracting measles. Measles is a highly contagious viral illness which can cause children to be seriously unwell, requiring hospital treatment, and in rare cases, death,” the hospital said in a statement to Sky News.
In a separate open letter to parents and carers in Merseyside earlier this month, Alder Hey, along with the UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) and directors of Public Health for Liverpool, Sefton and Knowsley, warned the increase in measles in the region could be down to fewer people getting vaccinated.
The letter read: “We are seeing more cases of measles in our children and young people because fewer people are having the MMR vaccine, which protects against measles and two other viruses called mumps and rubella.
“Children in hospital, who are very poorly for another reason, are at higher risk of catching the virus.”
What are the symptoms of measles?
The first symptoms of measles include:
• A high temperature
• A runny or blocked nose
• Sneezing
• A cough
• Red, sore or watery eyes
Cold-like symptoms are followed a few days later by a rash, which starts on the face and behind the ears, before it spreads.
The spots are usually raised and can join together to form blotchy patches which are not usually itchy.
Some people may get small spots in their mouth too.
What should you do if you think your child has measles?
Ask for an urgent GP appointment or call 111 if you think your child has measles.
If your child has been vaccinated, it is very unlikely they have measles.
You should not go to the doctor without calling ahead, as measles is very infectious.
If your child is diagnosed with measles by a doctor, make sure they avoid close contact with babies and anyone who is pregnant or has a weakened immune system.
Image: The skin of a patient after three days of measles infection
It comes after a Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) report released earlier this month determined that uptake of vaccines in the UK has stalled over the last decade and is, in many cases, declining.
It said none of the routine childhood vaccinations have met the 95% coverage target since 2021, putting youngsters at risk of measles, meningitis and whooping cough.
The MMR vaccine has been available through the NHS for years. Two doses gives lifelong protection against measles, mumps and rubella.
Image: Two doses of the MMR vaccine give lifelong protection against measles, mumps and rubella. Pic: iStock
According to the latest NHS data, Liverpool was one of the cities outside London with the lowest uptake of the MMR vaccination in 2023-2024.
By the time children were five years old, 86.5% had been give one dose, decreasing to 73.4% for a second dose.
The RCPCH report put the nationwide decline down to fears over vaccinations, as well as families having trouble booking appointments and a lack of continuous care in the NHS, with many seeing a different GP on each visit.
In the US, measles cases are at their highest in more than three decades.
Cases reached 1,288 on Wednesday this week, according to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, with 14 states battling active outbreaks.
The largest outbreak started five months ago in communities in West Texas, where vaccination uptake is low. Since then, three people have died – including two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico – with dozens more in hospital.