Why fear of growth setback has spooked investors
News of a potentially fast-spreading new coronavirus variant has already triggered a violent reaction on markets and in a number of different asset classes.
While much attention has naturally alighted on equity markets, with big falls in the FTSE-100 and continental European indices such as the DAX in Germany and the CAC-40 in France, probably the most significant move has been in the oil price.
At one point this morning, the price of a barrel of Brent crude fell to $77.28 – a level it has not seen since 24 September.
And, while a new coronavirus variant is undoubtedly unwelcome news, the fall in the price of oil may be one piece of good news emerging from the situation.
For a start, because oil prices move in close correlation to the price of other energy sources such as natural gas, a big decline will relieve inflationary pressures.
News of a fresh coronavirus variant has triggered a violent reaction on markets, including the FTSE 100
These, as was shown by this week’s co-ordinated release of crude reserves by the US, China and others, have been exercising governments in a number of countries.
It has also been exercising policy makers. The Bank of England has been dropping ever heavier hints of a looming increase in interest rates and, while it surprised the markets by not raising its main policy rate this month, at least one rise was being priced by the end of February next year.
But a sustained decline in the price of oil – and the threat to growth posed by the new variant – will relieve pressure on the Bank of England to act quickly and especially at a time when a number of members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee are still extremely wary of the possible impact of even a modest increase in Bank Rate.
That is also the calculation markets have been making this morning about the US. Yields on US Treasuries (US government IOUs) have fallen this morning – the yield falls as the price rises – as investors started to reconsider the likely timing of the next rise in US interest rates.
The odds against an early rate hike from the US Federal Reserve had been shortening since, on Monday, President Joe Biden reappointed Jay Powell as chairman of the Fed rather than going for the more dovish Lael Brainard.
Those bets have now started to unwind as some investors calculate the spread of a new coronavirus variant could push back the timing of the Fed’s first hike.
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Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey explains why it decided to hold interest rates at 0.1% – despite predicting inflation will hit 5% next year
A bigger concern, when it comes to the potential impact of another COVID variant, will be Europe. The main European economies have not rebounded from the pandemic as rapidly as the United States, as borne out on Thursday by confirmation of weaker-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter of this year in Germany, the continent’s biggest economy.
Those concerns also apply to the UK, whose economy is further away from recapturing its pre-pandemic levels than any other country in the G7, other than Japan.
What is particularly striking about market reaction to this new variant is that it has been far more violent than the response, earlier this week, to new COVID lockdowns in Austria, Slovakia and other parts of continental Europe. On that occasion, investors calculated that spending prevented from taking place due to lockdowns would be merely deferred, not postponed altogether.
Markets around the world were down on Friday as news of a worrying new variant spooked investors
With the new variant, as so little information is currently available about the speed with which it can be transmitted and the impact it will have on sufferers, the same assumption cannot be made.
That explains the punishment meted out this morning to aviation stocks, such as International Airlines Group (IAG) and Lufthansa and tourism-related stocks, such as TUI, Intercontinental Hotels and Whitbread, the owner of the Premier Inn chain.
But it cannot be stressed how unknowable the situation is.
As Neil Shearing, group chief economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, put it in a note to clients this morning: “It goes without saying that it’s still too early to say exactly how big a threat the new B.1.1.529 strain poses to the global economy.”
Mr Shearing said there were three key points to make, though, the first of which is that – as Delta showed – it is very hard to stop the spread of virulent new variants. Secondly, it is the restrictions imposed in response to the virus, rather than the virus itself, that causes the bulk of the economic damage.
Thirdly, he said, the global economic backdrop is different than in previous waves, with supply chains already stretched, while labour shortages are widespread.
He added: “All of this will complicate the policy response. At the margin, the threat of a new, more serious, variant of the virus may be a reason for central banks to postpone plans to raise interest rates until the picture becomes clearer.
“The key dates are 15 December, when the Fed meets, and 16 December, when several central banks, including the Bank of England and European Central Bank, meet.
“But unless a new wave causes widespread and significant damage to economic activity, it may not prevent some central banks from lifting interest rates next year.”
Much will depend on what information comes from the World Health Organisation in coming days and how governments respond.
As Jim Reid, head of global fundamental credit strategy at Deutsche Bank, noted today: “At this stage very little is known. Mutations are often less severe so we shouldn’t jump to conclusions but there is clearly a lot of concern about this one.
Also South Africa is one of the world leaders in sequencing so we are more likely to see this sort of news originate from there than many countries.
“Suffice to say at this stage no one in markets will have any idea which way this will go.”
Exactly. At the moment, travel bans have only been imposed to and from six southern African countries. It may well be that, if the new variant has already taken hold elsewhere, there may be little point in imposing new travel restrictions.
But this is not a situation many investors either expected or wanted to return to. They have seen this story before. And they do not wish to be caught out in the way they were during earlier waves of the pandemic.
The United States and European Union have agreed a trade deal, says Donald Trump.
The announcement was made as the US president met European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen at one of his golf resorts in Scotland.
Speaking after talks in Turnberry, Mr Trump said the EU deal was the “biggest deal ever made” and it will be “great for cars”.
The US will impose 15% tariffs on EU goods into America, after Mr Trump had threatened a 30% levy.
He said there will be an EU investment of $600bn in the US, the bloc will buy $750bn in US energy and will also purchase US military equipment.
Mr Trump had earlier said the main sticking point was “fairness”, citing barriers to US exports of cars and agriculture.
He went into the talks demanding fairer trade with the 27-member EU and threatening steep tariffs to achieve that, while insisting the US will not go below 15% import taxes.
For months, Mr Trump has threatened most of the world with large tariffs in the hope of shrinking major US trade deficits with many key trading partners, including the EU.
Ms von der Leyen said the agreement would include 15% tariffs across the board, saying it would help rebalance trade between the two large trading partners.
In case there was no deal and the US had imposed 30% tariffs from 1 August, the EU has prepared counter-tariffs on €93bn (£81bn) of US goods.
Ahead of their meeting on Sunday, Ms von der Leyen described Mr Trump as a “tough negotiator and dealmaker”.
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Retail sales grew in June as warm weather boosted spending and day trips, official figures show.
Spending on goods such as food, clothes and household items rose 0.9%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
It’s a bounce back from the 2.8% dip in May, but last month’s figure was below economists’ forecast 1.2% uplift as consumers dealt with higher prices from increased inflation.
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Also weighing on spending was reduced consumer confidence amid talk of higher taxes, according to a closely watched indicator from market research firm GfK.
Retail sales figures are significant as they measure household consumption, the largest expenditure in the UK economy.
Growing retail sales can mean economic growth, which the government has repeatedly said is its top priority.
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What does ‘inflation is rising’ mean?
Where have people been shopping?
June’s retail sales rise came as people bought more in supermarkets, and retailers said drinks sales were up.
While hot and sunny weather boosted some brick-and-mortar shops, the heat led some to head online.
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Non-store retailers, which include mainly online shops, but also market stalls, had sold the most in more than three years.
Not since February 2022 had sales been so high as the Met Office said England had its warmest ever June, and the second warmest for the UK as a whole.
The June increases suggest that the May drop was a bump in the road. When looked at as a whole, the first six months of the year saw retail sales up 1.7%.
Filling up the car for day trips to take advantage of the sun played an important role in the retail sales growth.
When fuel is excluded, the rise was smaller, just 0.6%.
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Despite lower consumer sentiment and more expensive goods, consumers are benefitting from rising wages and are cutting back on savings.
The ONS lifestyle survey – backed up by hard data like the Bank of England’s money and credit figures – shows that households have rebuilt their rainy day savings and are cutting back on the amount of money they squirrel away each month.
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