Oil prices could climb higher despite the U.S. and other major consumers releasing millions of barrels of oil from their reserves to try to keep energy prices down, one analyst told CNBC.
“It’s not going to work simply because the strategic petroleum reserve — any country’s strategic petroleum reserve is not there to try to manipulate price,” Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report, said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
Strategic petroleum reserves exist only to offset short-term, unexpected supply disruptions, he explained.
“There’s a considerable amount of bets out there that we will see $100 a barrel oil,” Schork said, adding it could happen as early as the first quarter of next year, especially if there is a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Calming oil prices
Oil prices have jumped more than 50% this year, with demand outstripping supply as more countries emerge from national lockdowns and severe restrictions imposed since last year due to the pandemic. Resumption of international travel as more nations re-open borders is also boosting jet fuel demand.
Global benchmark Brent surpassed the psychologically key threshold of $80 per barrel in October and prices have held near that level. As of Wednesday afternoon in Asia, the international contract traded near $82.50.
It is a clear sign of desperation that this is the only tool in the box and it is not going to work.
Stephen Schork
editor of the Schork Report
U.S. President Joe Biden announced Tuesday that the U.S. will release 50 million barrels from its reserves as part of a global effort by energy-consuming countries to calm the rapid rise in fuel prices. Of that total, 32 million barrels will be an exchange over the next few months, and 18 million barrels will be an acceleration of a previously authorized sale.
Other countries that made the joint commitment include China, India, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom.
“We are talking 50 million barrels coming out of the United States, potentially another 50 from our partners. That’s 100 million barrels of oil — that is one day’s worth of a global demand for crude oil,” Schork said.
Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy commodities analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, was more conservative in his estimates. He predicted in a Wednesday note that the number of barrels released by the six oil-consuming countries could amount to “just north of 70 million,” as the release of oil stockpiles from the other countries may be “relatively tame.”
The world consumed 97.53 million barrels of oil per day this year, up from 92.42 million barrels a day in 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In 2022, that figure is set to rise to 100.88 million barrels a day.
“It is a clear sign of desperation that this is the only tool in the box and it is not going to work. I do believe the market will call the U.S.’s bluff on this and we’re likely to see higher prices rather than lower prices one month from now,” Schork said.
Under such conditions, countervailing moves by each side are likely to lead to increased volatility, producing seesawing oil prices and added uncertainty.
Eurasia Group
The U.S. should consider bringing American producers to the table and ask them to ramp up output to offset the supply imbalance, he added.
Commonwealth Bank’s Dhar said a rebound in oil prices on Tuesday indicated that “markets were underwhelmed with the co-ordinated release of strategic oil reserves.”
Showdown with OPEC+
The latest development came after OPEC and its oil-producing allies decided not to pump more oil despite crude prices climbing to multi-year highs and U.S. pressure to help cool the market.
Under its current output plan, the group, known as OPEC+, will gradually increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day each month. They are due to meet again next month.
Oil well pump jacks operated by Chevron Corp. in San Ardo, California, U.S., on Tuesday, April 27, 2021.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
“There have, as of yet, been no signs that OPEC+ is reconsidering its plan,” Eurasia Group analysts said in a note dated Nov. 22, prior to Biden’s announcement overnight. A large-scale stock release by oil consumers before OPEC+ meets may prompt a countermove by the group, resulting in a “disruptive standoff,” they said.
“Under such conditions, countervailing moves by each side are likely to lead to increased volatility, producing seesawing oil prices and added uncertainty,” the Eurasia Group analysts said.
“This would neither alleviate consumer price pressure nor give producers the required stability to ensure steady and reliable supply to a global economy that is still grappling with the worst pandemic in a century,” they added.
Owner-operators are a huge part of the heavy truck market, and they’ve been among the most hesitant groups to transition from diesel to electric semi trucks. That may be changing, however, as Saldivar’s Trucking becomes first independent owner-operator in the US to deploy a Volvo VNR Electric Class 8 truck.
The higher up-front cost of electric semi trucks has been a huge obstacle for smaller fleets. That’s there are incentives from governments, utilities, and even non-profits to help overcome that initial obstacle. And the smart dealers are the ones who are putting in the hours to learn about those incentives, educate their customers, and ultimately sell more vehicles.
TEC Equipment is a smart dealer, and they worked closely with South Coast Air Quality Management District to secure the CARB funding and ensure Saldivar’s was able to ssecure $410,000 in funding from CARB’s On-Road Heavy-Duty Voucher Incentive Program (HVIP), which provides funding to replace older, heavy-duty trucks with zero-emission vehicles. The program is directed exclusively to small fleets with 10 vehicles or less that operate in California and aims to bridge the gap between the regulatory push for clean transportation and the financial realities faced by small business owners.
“TEC Equipment has been instrumental in supporting owner-operators like Saldivar’s Trucking through the transition to battery-electric vehicles,” explains Peter Voorhoeve, president of Volvo Trucks North America. “Their dedication to providing comprehensive support and securing necessary funding demonstrates how crucial dealer partners are in turning the vision of owning a battery-electric vehicle into a reality for fleets of all sizes.”
Saldivar’s Volvo VNR Electric features a six-battery configuration, with 565 kWh of storage capacity and a 250 kW charging capability. The zero-tailpipe emission truck can charge to 80% in 90 minutes to provide a range of up to 275 miles.
“While large fleets often make headlines for their ambitious investments in battery-electric vehicles, nearly half of the 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the U.S. are owner-operators running their businesses with just one truck,” adds Voorhoeve. “These small operations face unique challenges, from the initial capital investment to securing adequate charging infrastructure … this collaboration is a perfect example of the important role to be played by truck dealers and why stakeholders need to work together to succeed in this new era of sustainable transportation.” We need solutions that work for different fleets of all sizes in the marketplace,” added Voorhoeve.”
Electrek’s Take
Electrifying America’s commercial trucking fleet can’t happen soon enough – for the health of the people who live and work near these vehicles, the health of the planet they drive on, and (thanks to their substantially lower operating costs) the health of the businesses that deploy them. TEC is doing a great job advancing the cause, and acting as true expert partners for their customers.
Mercedes released a look at the powertrain technology of its upcoming electric CLA, and it includes tons of neat EV tech and some interesting options for battery technology and what looks to be the most flexible charging system we’ve seen yet.
We’ve already learned a fair amount about the CLA after first seeing the concept last year, and Mercedes released a few new specifics today regarding its powertrain.
In keeping with previous information we knew, the CLA is targeting extremely high efficiency of 12kWh/100km, which translates to just 193Wh/mi or 5.2mi/kWh. That’s more efficient than anything else on the road today – with Lucid’s Air Pure reaching 200Wh/mi, or 5mi/kWh. And just less than what Tesla is claiming the Cybercab will be capable of, at 5.5kWh/mi.
This is thanks to Mercedes’ new compact EDU 2.0 electric motor, which is part of its new Mercedes Modular Architecture (MMA) which will underpin its upcoming electric vehicles. The drive motor will be 200kW on the rear axle, though all-wheel drive models will be available with an additional 80kW unit on the front axle. A two-speed transmission will ensure efficiency at high speeds and low.
For more efficiency in cold weather, the CLA will use an air-to-air heat pump which is able to capture heat from the motor, battery, and ambient air to heat the cabin. While batteries and motors don’t make nearly as much waste heat as inefficient ICE engines, it’s still good to be able to channel heat to wherever you need it.
Mercedes says that the CLA will come equipped with a choice of two different batteries, each with different chemistries.
The larger 85kWh model will be capable of an unnecessarily-high 750km (466mi) of WLTP range – though WLTP numbers are always higher than EPA numbers, so expect something in the high-300s in EPA parlance. This battery will add silicon oxide to the anode for higher energy density, a technology that has been pioneered by Sila Nanotechnologies, a company which Mercedes is a lead investor in.
The smaller battery will be 58kWh, and will use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry. LFP is a cheaper but lower energy density technology, with higher long-term durability and simpler sourcing of minerals (it uses no cobalt, whereas Mercedes says cobalt has been “reduced” in the larger batteries). However, LFP generally has slower fast charging and cold weather performance.
On charging: the “premium” battery will have an 800V configuration capable of up to 320kW charging speeds. Mercedes says this can add 300km (186mi) of range in 10 minutes, and also says that the car will have a broad charging curve, which means you’ll get high charge rates even if the battery isn’t close to empty. It didn’t specify if the smaller LFP battery will have the same charge rate.
This high charging rate allowed Mercedes to set a record traveling 3,717km (2,309mi) in 24 hours at the Nardo test track in Italy in a pre-production CLA. That’s an average travel rate of 96mph – including time spent charging.
We also learned something about Mercedes’ NACS adoption plans. While just about everyone has committed to transitioning cars to NACS, it has taken longer than expected (largely due to Tesla’s chaotic CEO firing the whole supercharger team for little reason), and few cars have native NACS inlets yet. Some brands can already charge at Superchargers with adapters, but Mercedes is still on Tesla’s “coming soon” page.
As a result of delays in onbaording automakers, some seem to have pulled back on their plans, pushing NACS ports to later model years. But Mercedes has a new and unique solution – it will just put both CCS and NACS ports on the CLA, right on top of each other.
Mercedes says “in the future, new entry-level models will be capable of bidirectional charging,” but isn’t clear whether this model will be capable of that.
Electrek’s Take
While this is short of a full release of specs, we’re excited by what we see here. Mercedes seems to confirm that they’re meeting the efficiency goals they set out, and we like that they’re offering a variety of options and taking advantage of some newer EV tech like 800V charging infrastructure.
The inclusion of both NACS and CCS is very interesting, again offering options to owners during the transition. That seems to be the big message from Mercedes here – we’re not going to just pick one tool, we’re going to use all of them.
But pricing and availability are obviously big questions, as is design.
The concept looks fantastic, but concepts always change on their way into production. The shape of the camouflaged test vehicle is very different – but looks to have some shrouding on the front and back to hide its shape, so we’ll have to wait until we see this thing unveiled for more.
And as for pricing – Mercedes says the CLA will be an “entry-level” car, but who knows what that means anymore these days. The base ICE CLA starts at around $44k currently, so lets see if they can hit that number.
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Daimler Truck North America has helped alcohol distributor Reyes Beverage Group deploy fully 29 zero-emission Freightliner eCascadia Class 8 electric semi trucks in its California delivery fleet.
Reyes Beverage Group (RGB) plans to deploy the first twenty Freightliner electric semi trucks at its Golden Brands – East Bay and Harbor Distributing – Huntington Beach warehouses, marking the first phase in the company’s transition to a fully zero emission truck fleet by 2039. An additional nine eCascadia Class 8 HDEVs are scheduled for delivery to RBG’s Gate City Beverage – San Bernardino warehouse before the end of 2024.
RBG’s decision to adopt the Freightliner eCascadia builds on its recent transition to renewable diesel and its ongoing idle-time reduction program. These electric vehicles (EVs) “go electric” will contribute significantly toward the company’s stated goal of reducing its carbon emissions 60 percent by 2030. These 2 trucks will save some 98,000 gallons of diesel fuel annually, and avoid putting nearly 700 metric tons of carbon dioxide and other harmful emissions into California’s air each year.
“We are excited to be among the first in our industry to adopt these electric vehicles,” explains Tom Reyes, President of RBG West. “This is a significant step toward our sustainability goals and ensuring compliance with state regulation as we transition our fleet to EV.”
Freightliner’s eCascadia electric semi trucks offer a number of battery and drive axle configurations with ranges between 155 and 230 miles, depending on the truck specification, to perfectly match customers’ needs without compromising on performance and load capacity. RBG’s Freightliner eCascadia tractors will rely on electric charging stations installed at each facility, allowing them to recharge to 80% capacity in as little as 90 minutes for RGB’s trucks, which feature a typical driving range of 220 miles as equipped.