How the spread of Omicron went from patient zero to all around the globe

Published

3 years ago

November 29, 2021

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The speed with which new variants of the COVID-19 virus spread around the world can leave government’s scrambling to catch up. What is sometimes more remarkable is the speed with which those new variants are detected.

It has taken barely two weeks from the initial testing of ‘patient zero’, before potentially the entire globe is readying itself to examine COVID test samples to see if they contain the Omicron variant.

Patient zero, called n=1 or the index case by the scientific community, arrived at Hong Kong International Airport on 11 November, having flown in from South Africa via Doha in Qatar, on flight QR818.

He had been in South Africa for almost three weeks, and had tested negative the day before he began his trip there.

On his return to the territory on the Qatar Airways flight, the 36-year-old was in seat 31A, and was showing no symptoms when he checked into the Regal Airport Hotel in Chek Lap Kok, to begin his mandatory quarantine. He also tested negative on his return.

Hong Kong has some of the most stringent regulations on arrival in the world.

Anyone coming from a “high-risk” country can only board flights for the territory if they are fully-vaccinated Hong Kong residents and even then they have to undergo compulsory isolation for 21 days in a designated quarantine hotel when they arrive.

While in quarantine, they must undergo six COVID tests and then they must monitor themselves for the following seven days, after which they are tested again 26 days after the day of their arrival.

The man in question had fulfilled all the requirements, having received the Pfizer vaccine on 13 May and 4 June, and outwardly there were no signs his case was anything unusual.

But two days into his quarantine, he was tested again, on 13 November, and after showing a high viral load was sent to hospital the next day.

Meanwhile, another passenger that had arrived in Hong Kong the day before the man who later became patient zero, was staying in a room opposite him on the fifth floor of the same quarantine hotel.

He tested negative twice before, on 18 November, a result showed he too had a high viral load and he was also rushed to hospital.

Like all arrivals who test positive after coming to Hong Kong, they were give case numbers – 12388 and 12404.

Early conclusions from Hong Kong’s health authorities were that case 12404 might have been infected with the variant as air flowed into the corridor when case 12388 opened his hotel room door as he was not wearing a surgical mask.

While the test results from the Hong Kong travellers were being analysed, other researchers in South Africa and Botswana were also looking into a newly emerging variant.

Just three days after the Hong Kong traveller went to his quarantine hotel, a number of people were being routinely tested in the South African province of Gauteng.

At around the same time, South Africa, and particularly Gauteng, began to see a sudden uptick in cases.

South African scientists began to come to the conclusion they were seeing something new after detecting a group of related SARS-CoV-2 viruses that were turning up in large numbers, compared to other variants.

Out of the specimens collected between 14 and 23 November, more than 70% were of the same type.

They raised the alarm on 22 November.

The next day the new variant was picked up by GISAID, the open-access database of flu viruses and coronavirus variants that has been critical to spreading news around the world about emerging forms of COVID-19.

On 24 November, it was given a new name under the criteria given to emerging COVID variants – B.1.1.529.

On the same day, the new variant was reported to the World Health Organisation, which convened its technical advisory group – similar to WHO’s equivalent to SAGE – to assess what should be done.

The UK, responding to the rapidly evolving situation, designated the virus type a variant under investigation, VUI-21NOV-01, on 25 November.

As it did so, cases in South Africa were shooting up.

Professor Sharon Peacock of COG-UK Genomics UK Consortium, which oversees sequencing in the UK, said on Friday: “The number of recorded COVID-19 infections on 16 November 2021 was 273 cases. By 25 November this had risen to more than 1,200 cases.

“More than 80% of these were from Gauteng province. Cases in Gauteng province initially appeared to be clustered, but over time there has been more widespread dispersal of infections across the province.

“An analysis of the R value (a measure of growth rate) is 1.47 for South Africa as a whole, but initial estimates for Gauteng province are 1.93. Based on this measurement, it indicates that growth rate of cases is considerably higher in Gauteng province than the rest of the country.

“Around 100 B.1.1.529 genomes have now been identified in South Africa, mostly from Gauteng province. But this region is also where the sequencing has been targeted, and the question is whether the variant is present over a wider geographic area.”

In total, according to the European Centre for Disease Control, South African investigators examined 77 samples in Gauteng taken between 12 and 20 November looking for a specific mutation that suggested Omicron was present, and found it in all cases.

The results, say the ECDC, suggest that Omicron is already dominant in Gauteng and is present in significant proportions in most parts of South Africa.

The question is, what does this mean for the rest of the world?

It is clear that Omicron has been in the UK for several days.

After one of the first cases in England was revealed to have been identified in Brentwood, Essex County Council said staff, customers and delivery workers who visited a branch of KFC on Brentwood High Street on Friday 19 November, between 1pm and 5pm, should take a PCR test immediately – suggesting a person with the variant was in the restaurant at the time.

Likewise, they asked anyone in the congregation of the town’s Trinity Church on Sunday 21 November to do the same.

Essex’s director of public health Dr Mike Gogarty told the BBC’s World At One programme that the person in question was tested on 20 November and has contracted the variant from someone who had been in contact with someone who had been to South Africa – in a clear case of community transmission.

He said: “We are talking probably about two weeks from now since that person returned from Africa.”

Both the UK cases identified on Saturday, which also included one in Nottingham, were linked to travel in South Africa. A third case in the London borough of Westminster, who had previously been in southern Africa, has since left the country.

But while South Africa, like the UK, has an effective system to sequence COVID test samples, many other countries in Africa do not.

Omicron has been detected early in Botswana, but there are concerns it may be widespread in several other nations in southern Africa.

Some 98 samples were sequenced in Botswana to allow the identification of six cases of Omicron by Friday, reported the ECDC, but in the same period countries like Kenya sequenced just five cases, with no Omicron cases.

Israel, one of the world’s most vaccinated countries, said on Friday it had also detected the country’s first case of Omicron in a traveller who had returned from Malawi. Two other suspected cases were also placed in isolation.

On that day, as the world became aware of the extent of the spread, markets reacted with oil prices plunging and airlines shares suffering major losses.

A case was also confirmed in Belgium and on Saturday suspected cases were reported in Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic.

Denmark and Australia announced two cases and the Netherlands identified 13 Omicron cases in dozens of COVID-positive travellers from South Africa on Sunday.

On Monday, further cases were announced in Portugal, where 13 players and staff members of Lisbon soccer team Belenenses were found to be positive for the variant even though only one player had been recently to South Africa.

Countries across the planet have reacted by closing their borders or reintroducing severe travel restrictions.

While scientists have raised the alarm, and have said they expected it to spread, many say there is no more cause for concern in terms of the impact on people, than there might have been if the Delta variant stays dominant.

Reacting to the news cases had been discovered in Scotland, Professor Rowland Kao, the Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science at the University of Edinburgh, said: “It is now clear that the Omicron variant has been spreading around the world for some days, if not weeks prior to the alarms being raised, and this is only to be expected for a virus which transmits as easily as SARS-CoV-2, and with international travel now substantial (even though not quite at the level pre-pandemic).

“Evidence of community spread in two locations in Scotland (ie cases with no obvious risks other than community spread) and no obvious source yet, are strong indicators that we shall see more cases in Scotland arise over the next few days and weeks.

“As always, anything individuals can do to mitigate spread (physical distancing, taking lateral flow tests when appropriate and being aware of COVID symptoms and testing) will be beneficial.

“However it is important to remember that the omicron variant may not pose an increased health risk – it may in fact cause milder infections. However we shall only know for sure in the next few weeks.”

World

Trump doubles down on Putin criticism – as Russia offers Ukraine a date and location for peace talks

Published

4 hours ago

May 28, 2025

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Trump doubles down on Putin criticism - as Russia offers Ukraine a date and location for peace talks

Donald Trump has doubled down on his criticism of Vladimir Putin – adding he will know soon if the Russian leader is just “tapping” him along.

The US president told reporters at the White House that he believed his counterpart in Moscow may be intentionally delaying ceasefire talks, while he also expressed disappointment at heavy Russian bombing over the weekend.

While Mr Trump has so far stopped short of imposing sanctions – to avoid, he says, “screwing up” negotiations – he warned his stance could change.

Ukraine Q&A: Are we any closer to war ending?

The president said: “We’re going to find out whether or not he’s tapping us along or not, and if he is, we’ll respond a little differently,” adding that he “can’t tell you” if Mr Putin wanted peace.

His comments in the Oval Office came minutes after Russia’s foreign minister announced that the Kremlin had offered Ukraine a second round of talks on 2 June in Istanbul.

Kyiv did not immediately respond to the proposal, which Sergei Lavrov said would see Moscow hand their proposals for a potential peace deal directly to Ukraine.

“We hope that all those who are sincerely, and not just in words, interested in the success of the peace process will support holding a new round of direct Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul,” Mr Lavrov added.

Later on Wednesday, Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov said his government was “not against” further meetings, but called for Russia to deliver its memorandum to Kyiv beforehand.

The words that suggest Russia’s proposal for talks are just for show

By being the first to propose a date and location for the second round of direct talks, Russia is trying to portray itself as the principal driver towards peace.

Its recent barrage of attacks on Ukraine have drawn harsh words from Donald Trump.

This is an attempt to soothe his concerns and to show Washington that Moscow is still interested in a deal.

But it feels much more performative than anything else, because Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s statement makes it clear that Russia’s position hasn’t softened one bit.

Referring to a memorandum outlining the contours of a settlement, he said it details “all aspects of reliably overcoming the root causes of the crisis”.

In Moscow’s opinion, the “root causes” of the conflict were NATO expansion and the persecution of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.

So, if that’s the basis of its memorandum, then the document will essentially be a list of Moscow’s maximalist demands, including permanent neutrality for Ukraine.

Lavrov also confirmed that Russia’s delegation will again be led by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, who Kyiv last time dismissed as being too junior for the talks to achieve anything meaningful.

Expectations of a breakthrough at round two will be similarly low.

Meanwhile, Mr Lavrov also hit out at Germany for agreeing to finance the production of long-range missiles in Ukraine, accusing Berlin of showing it is “already a participant in the war”.

However, German leader Friedrich Merz declined to say that his country would hand over the Taurus missiles that Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy – who was in Berlin on Wednesday – has long wanted.

Ukraine’s need for ammunition has become all the more urgent after Russia launched some of the largest aerial assaults of the war so far over the weekend.

Russia said it had downed 296 Ukrainian drones over 13 regions overnight, while Ukraine said it had struck several weapon production sites.

Kyiv, in turn, said Moscow had launched 88 drones and five ballistic missiles since Tuesday.

World

Hamas’s Gaza chief ‘eliminated’, says Netanyahu – but military sources say they cannot confirm death

Published

5 hours ago

May 28, 2025

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Hamas's Gaza chief 'eliminated', says Netanyahu - but military sources say they cannot confirm death

Hamas’s Gaza chief Mohammed Sinwar has been “eliminated”, according to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

But Israeli military sources have said they are not yet able to confirm the death.

Hamas has also not yet confirmed the apparent killing of its leader.

Meanwhile, with Gaza on the brink of famine, the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations broke down in tears as he spoke of the suffering of its people.

Riyah Mansour told the Security Council: “Children are dying of starvation. The images of mothers embracing their motionless bodies. Caressing their hair, talking to them, apologising to them, is unbearable.”

He added: “I have grandchildren. I know what they mean to their families. And to see this situation over the Palestinians without us having hearts to do something is beyond the ability of any normal human being to tolerate. Flames and hunger are devouring Palestinian children. This is why we are so outraged as Palestinians everywhere.”

Sinwar was one of Israel‘s most wanted and the younger brother of the Palestinian militant group’s former leader Yahya Sinwar.

The older sibling was the mastermind of the October 7 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 people in Israel, with around 250 others taken hostage into Gaza.

The attack triggered Israel’s assault on Gaza which decimated the territory, with more than 53,000 people killed, mostly women and children, and over two million displaced, according to health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants in their tally of fatalities.

Yahya Sinwar was killed in a gun battle with Israeli troops in Gaza last October. His younger sibling was believed to have then become the head of Hamas’s armed wing.

Speaking to the Knesset on Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu included Mohammed Sinwar in a list of Hamas leaders killed in Israeli strikes. Later, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) sources said they were not yet able to confirm the death.

The prime minister said: “We have killed tens of thousands of terrorists. We killed (Mohammed) Deif, (Ismail) Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Sinwar.” He did not elaborate.

Mohammed Sinwar had reportedly been the target of an Israeli strike on a hospital in southern Gaza on 13 May and Mr Netanyahu said on 21 May that it was likely he had been killed.

The Israeli military had said it struck a Hamas command centre under the European Hospital in the Sinwars’ hometown of Khan Younis, and it declined to comment on whether Sinwar was targeted or killed.

At least six people were killed in the strike and 40 wounded, Gaza’s health ministry said at the time.

Sinwar rose through ranks

Like his older brother, Mohammed Sinwar joined Hamas after it was founded in the late 1980s as the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. He became a member of the group’s military wing, known as the Qassam Brigades.

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Sinwar rose through the ranks to become a member of its so-called joint chiefs of staff, bringing him close to its longtime commander, Deif, who was killed in a strike last year.

“In the last two days, we have been in a dramatic turn towards a complete defeat of Hamas,” the Israeli leader told the Knesset.

Mr Netanyahu also spoke about how Israel was “taking control of food distribution”, a reference to a new aid distribution system that has been criticised and boycotted by humanitarian groups and the UN.

One killed at site of aid hub

The development comes after one person was killed and 48 others injured when forces opened fire on a crowd that overwhelmed an aid hub in Gaza, according to local health officials.

Palestinians have become increasingly desperate for food after almost three months of Israeli border closures. A blockade has recently been eased.

People broke through fences around the distribution site on Wednesday, and a journalist with the Associated Press said they heard Israeli tank and gunfire, and saw a military helicopter firing flares.

It was not yet known whether the death and injuries were caused by Israeli forces, private contractors or others.

The Israeli and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which set up the hub outside Rafah, said its military contractors had not fired on the crowd but “fell back” before resuming aid operations. Israel said its troops nearby had fired warning shots.

The UN and other humanitarian organisations have rejected the new system, saying it will not meet the needs of Gaza’s 2.3 million people and allows Israel to use food to control the population.

Israel has vowed to seize control of Gaza and fight until Hamas is destroyed or disarmed and exiled, and until the militant group returns the last 58 hostages, including around a third thought to be still alive.

‘This is a man-made catastrophe’

Meanwhile, a US trauma surgeon who has been working in Gaza urged the UN Security Council to not “claim ignorance” about the humanitarian devastation.

Dr Feroze Sidhwa said: “Let’s not forget, this is a man-made catastrophe. It is entirely preventable. Participating in it or not allowing it to happen is a choice.

“This is a deliberate denial of conditions necessary for life: food, shelter, water and medicine. Preventing genocide means refusing to normalise these atrocities.”

The UN World Health Organization has documented around 700 attacks on healthcare facilities in Gaza during the war. Israel accuses Hamas of using hospitals as command centres and to hide fighters.

World

Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan charged with rape in the UK

Published

7 hours ago

May 28, 2025

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Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan charged with rape in the UK

Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan Tate have been charged with rape and other offences in the UK.

Andrew Tate, 38, faces 10 charges, including rape, actual bodily harm, human trafficking and controlling prostitution for gain, relating to three women.

His brother Tristan Tate, 36, faces 11 charges relating to one woman – including rape, actual bodily harm and human trafficking.

The charges were authorised in January 2024, but full details have only been released now.

Bedfordshire Police issued an international arrest warrant for the brothers over allegations, which they “unequivocally deny”, said to have occurred between 2012 and 2015.

The Tate brothers are facing separate allegations of trafficking minors, sexual intercourse with a minor and money laundering in Romania.

They are also accused of human trafficking and forming a criminal gang to sexually exploit women in a different case, which has been sent back to prosecutors.

They are due to be extradited to the UK following the conclusion of proceedings in Romania.

A Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) spokesperson said: “We can confirm that we have authorised charges against Andrew and Tristan Tate for offences including rape, human trafficking, controlling prostitution and actual bodily harm against three women.

“These charging decisions followed receipt of a file of evidence from Bedfordshire Police.

“A European Arrest Warrant was issued in England in 2024, and as a result the Romanian courts ordered the extradition to the UK of Andrew and Tristan Tate.”

The spokesperson added: “However, the domestic criminal matters in Romania must be settled first.

“The Crown Prosecution Service reminds everyone that criminal proceedings are active, and the defendants have the right to a fair trial.

“It is extremely important that there be no reporting, commentary or sharing of information online which could in any way prejudice these proceedings.”

Representatives for Andrew Tate have been contacted by Sky News for comment.

Lawyer Matt Jury, of McCue Jury & Partners, representing several alleged British victims of Andrew Tate, said: “We welcome the clarity from the Crown Prosecution Service that our authorities are working to ensure the Tates face justice here in the UK – they cannot be allowed to escape extradition.

“At the same time, we ask once more that CPS admit its mistake in failing to prosecute Tate when he lived in the UK and finally charge him for the rape and assault of the other three women, our clients, who originally filed criminal complaints against him as long ago as 2014 but were failed by the system.

“They deserve justice, too.”

The allegations were subject to a police investigation, which was closed in 2019.