The speed with which new variants of the COVID-19 virus spread around the world can leave government’s scrambling to catch up. What is sometimes more remarkable is the speed with which those new variants are detected.
It has taken barely two weeks from the initial testing of ‘patient zero’, before potentially the entire globe is readying itself to examine COVID test samples to see if they contain the Omicron variant.
Patient zero, called n=1 or the index case by the scientific community, arrived at Hong Kong International Airport on 11 November, having flown in from South Africa via Doha in Qatar, on flight QR818.
He had been in South Africa for almost three weeks, and had tested negative the day before he began his trip there.
On his return to the territory on the Qatar Airways flight, the 36-year-old was in seat 31A, and was showing no symptoms when he checked into the Regal Airport Hotel in Chek Lap Kok, to begin his mandatory quarantine. He also tested negative on his return.
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Hong Kong has some of the most stringent regulations on arrival in the world.
Anyone coming from a “high-risk” country can only board flights for the territory if they are fully-vaccinated Hong Kong residents and even then they have to undergo compulsory isolation for 21 days in a designated quarantine hotel when they arrive.
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While in quarantine, they must undergo six COVID tests and then they must monitor themselves for the following seven days, after which they are tested again 26 days after the day of their arrival.
The man in question had fulfilled all the requirements, having received the Pfizer vaccine on 13 May and 4 June, and outwardly there were no signs his case was anything unusual.
Image: The Regal Airport Hotel, where Omicron patient zero was staying when it was found out he had the variant. Pic: Google Streetview
But two days into his quarantine, he was tested again, on 13 November, and after showing a high viral load was sent to hospital the next day.
Meanwhile, another passenger that had arrived in Hong Kong the day before the man who later became patient zero, was staying in a room opposite him on the fifth floor of the same quarantine hotel.
He tested negative twice before, on 18 November, a result showed he too had a high viral load and he was also rushed to hospital.
Like all arrivals who test positive after coming to Hong Kong, they were give case numbers – 12388 and 12404.
Early conclusions from Hong Kong’s health authorities were that case 12404 might have been infected with the variant as air flowed into the corridor when case 12388 opened his hotel room door as he was not wearing a surgical mask.
Image: Patient zero is said by the Hong Kong authorities to live in the Rambler Crest blocks, in the suburb of Tsing Yi. Pic: Google Streetview
While the test results from the Hong Kong travellers were being analysed, other researchers in South Africa and Botswana were also looking into a newly emerging variant.
Just three days after the Hong Kong traveller went to his quarantine hotel, a number of people were being routinely tested in the South African province of Gauteng.
At around the same time, South Africa, and particularly Gauteng, began to see a sudden uptick in cases.
South African scientists began to come to the conclusion they were seeing something new after detecting a group of related SARS-CoV-2 viruses that were turning up in large numbers, compared to other variants.
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What is the new COVID variant?
Out of the specimens collected between 14 and 23 November, more than 70% were of the same type.
They raised the alarm on 22 November.
The next day the new variant was picked up by GISAID, the open-access database of flu viruses and coronavirus variants that has been critical to spreading news around the world about emerging forms of COVID-19.
On 24 November, it was given a new name under the criteria given to emerging COVID variants – B.1.1.529.
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Scotland and Wales are calling for all UK travellers to isolate for eight days when arriving in the country.
On the same day, the new variant was reported to the World Health Organisation, which convened its technical advisory group – similar to WHO’s equivalent to SAGE – to assess what should be done.
The UK, responding to the rapidly evolving situation, designated the virus type a variant under investigation, VUI-21NOV-01, on 25 November.
As it did so, cases in South Africa were shooting up.
Professor Sharon Peacock of COG-UK Genomics UK Consortium, which oversees sequencing in the UK, said on Friday: “The number of recorded COVID-19 infections on 16 November 2021 was 273 cases. By 25 November this had risen to more than 1,200 cases.
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Health minister Edward Argar says Omicron cases will rise across the UK in the run-up to Christmas.
“More than 80% of these were from Gauteng province. Cases in Gauteng province initially appeared to be clustered, but over time there has been more widespread dispersal of infections across the province.
“An analysis of the R value (a measure of growth rate) is 1.47 for South Africa as a whole, but initial estimates for Gauteng province are 1.93. Based on this measurement, it indicates that growth rate of cases is considerably higher in Gauteng province than the rest of the country.
“Around 100 B.1.1.529 genomes have now been identified in South Africa, mostly from Gauteng province. But this region is also where the sequencing has been targeted, and the question is whether the variant is present over a wider geographic area.”
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South Africa’s president says Omicron is now responsible for the majority of cases in the country’s most populated area.
In total, according to the European Centre for Disease Control, South African investigators examined 77 samples in Gauteng taken between 12 and 20 November looking for a specific mutation that suggested Omicron was present, and found it in all cases.
The results, say the ECDC, suggest that Omicron is already dominant in Gauteng and is present in significant proportions in most parts of South Africa.
The question is, what does this mean for the rest of the world?
It is clear that Omicron has been in the UK for several days.
After one of the first cases in England was revealed to have been identified in Brentwood, Essex County Council said staff, customers and delivery workers who visited a branch of KFC on Brentwood High Street on Friday 19 November, between 1pm and 5pm, should take a PCR test immediately – suggesting a person with the variant was in the restaurant at the time.
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Sky’s Charlotte Lomas looks at what scientists know so far about the Omicron COVID variant and how it behaves.
Likewise, they asked anyone in the congregation of the town’s Trinity Church on Sunday 21 November to do the same.
Essex’s director of public health Dr Mike Gogarty told the BBC’s World At One programme that the person in question was tested on 20 November and has contracted the variant from someone who had been in contact with someone who had been to South Africa – in a clear case of community transmission.
He said: “We are talking probably about two weeks from now since that person returned from Africa.”
Both the UK cases identified on Saturday, which also included one in Nottingham, were linked to travel in South Africa. A third case in the London borough of Westminster, who had previously been in southern Africa, has since left the country.
But while South Africa, like the UK, has an effective system to sequence COVID test samples, many other countries in Africa do not.
Omicron has been detected early in Botswana, but there are concerns it may be widespread in several other nations in southern Africa.
Some 98 samples were sequenced in Botswana to allow the identification of six cases of Omicron by Friday, reported the ECDC, but in the same period countries like Kenya sequenced just five cases, with no Omicron cases.
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Dr Chaand Nagpaul says there needs to be a consistent policy in mask wearing in public.
Israel, one of the world’s most vaccinated countries, said on Friday it had also detected the country’s first case of Omicron in a traveller who had returned from Malawi. Two other suspected cases were also placed in isolation.
On that day, as the world became aware of the extent of the spread, markets reacted with oil prices plunging and airlines shares suffering major losses.
A case was also confirmed in Belgium and on Saturday suspected cases were reported in Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic.
Image: The OR Tambo airport at the weekend after countries around the world banned flights from the country where Omicron was sourced to
Denmark and Australia announced two cases and the Netherlands identified 13 Omicron cases in dozens of COVID-positive travellers from South Africa on Sunday.
On Monday, further cases were announced in Portugal, where 13 players and staff members of Lisbon soccer team Belenenses were found to be positive for the variant even though only one player had been recently to South Africa.
Countries across the planet have reacted by closing their borders or reintroducing severe travel restrictions.
While scientists have raised the alarm, and have said they expected it to spread, many say there is no more cause for concern in terms of the impact on people, than there might have been if the Delta variant stays dominant.
Image: The home ground of Belenenses SAD football club in Lisbon, Portugal, after 13 cases of omicron were identified there. Pic: AP
Reacting to the news cases had been discovered in Scotland, Professor Rowland Kao, the Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science at the University of Edinburgh, said: “It is now clear that the Omicron variant has been spreading around the world for some days, if not weeks prior to the alarms being raised, and this is only to be expected for a virus which transmits as easily as SARS-CoV-2, and with international travel now substantial (even though not quite at the level pre-pandemic).
“Evidence of community spread in two locations in Scotland (ie cases with no obvious risks other than community spread) and no obvious source yet, are strong indicators that we shall see more cases in Scotland arise over the next few days and weeks.
“As always, anything individuals can do to mitigate spread (physical distancing, taking lateral flow tests when appropriate and being aware of COVID symptoms and testing) will be beneficial.
“However it is important to remember that the omicron variant may not pose an increased health risk – it may in fact cause milder infections. However we shall only know for sure in the next few weeks.”
The assassination attempt on a former Russian spy was authorised by Vladimir Putin, who is “morally responsible” for the death of a woman poisoned by the nerve agent used in the attack, a public inquiry has found.
The chairman, Lord Hughes, found there were “failings” in the management of Sergei Skripal, 74, who was a member of Russian military intelligence, the GRU, before coming to the UK in 2010 on a prisoner exchange after being convicted of spying for Britain.
But he found the assessment that he wasn’t at “significant risk” of assassination was not “unreasonable” at the time of the attack in Salisbury on 4 March 2018, which could only have been avoided by hiding him with a completely new identity.
Mr Skripal and his daughter Yulia, 41, who was also poisoned, were left seriously ill, along with then police officer Nick Bailey, who was sent to search their home, but they all survived.
Image: Sergei Skripal and Yulia Skripal.
Pic: Shutterstock
Dawn Sturgess, 44, died on 8 July, just over a week after unwittingly spraying herself with novichok given to her by her partner, Charlie Rowley, 52, in a perfume bottle in nearby Amesbury on 30 June 2018. Mr Rowley was left seriously ill but survived.
In his 174-page report, following last year’s seven-week inquiry, costing more than £8m, former Supreme Court judge Lord Hughes said she received “entirely appropriate” medical care but her condition was “unsurvivable” from a very early stage.
The inquiry found GRU officers using the aliases Alexander Petrov, 46, and Ruslan Boshirov, 47, had brought the Nina Ricci bottle containing the novichok to Salisbury after arriving in London from Moscow with a third agent known as Sergey Fedotov to kill Mr Skripal on 2 March.
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Image: L-R Suspects who used the names of Sergey Fedotov, Ruslan Boshirov and Alexander Petrov. Pics: UK Counter Terrorism Policing
The report said it was likely the same bottle Petrov and Boshirov used to apply the military-grade nerve agent to the handle of Mr Skripal’s front door before it was “recklessly discarded”.
“They can have had no regard to the hazard thus created, of the death of, or serious injury to, an uncountable number of innocent people,” it said.
It is “impossible to say” where Mr Rowley found the bottle, but was likely within a few days of it being abandoned on 4 March, meaning there is “clear causative link” with the death of mother-of-three Ms Sturgess.
Image: Novichok was in perfume bottle. Pic: Reuters
Lord Hughes said he was sure the three GRU agents “were acting on instructions”, adding: “I have concluded that the operation to assassinate Sergei Skripal must have been authorised at the highest level, by President Putin.
“I therefore conclude that those involved in the assassination attempt (not only Petrov, Boshirov and Fedotov, but also those who sent them, and anyone else giving authorisation or knowing assistance in Russia or elsewhere) were morally responsible for Dawn Sturgess’s death,” he said.
Russian ambassador summonsed
After the publication of the report, the government announced the GRU has been sanctioned in its entirety, and the Russian Ambassador has been summonsed to the Foreign Office to answer for Russia’s ongoing campaign of alleged hostile activity against the UK.
Sir Keir Starmer said the findings “are a grave reminder of the Kremlin’s disregard for innocent lives” and that Ms Sturgess’s “needless” death was a tragedy that “will forever be a reminder of Russia’s reckless aggression”.
“The UK will always stand up to Putin’s brutal regime and call out his murderous machine for what it is,” the prime minister said.
He said deploying the “highly toxic nerve agent in a busy city centre was an astonishingly reckless act” with an “entirely foreseeable” risk that others beyond the intended target would be killed or injured.
The inquiry heard a total of 87 people presented at A&E.
Image: Pic AP
Lord Hughes said there was a decision taken not to issue advice to the public not to pick anything up which they hadn’t dropped, which was a “reasonable conclusion” at the time, so as not to cause “widespread panic”.
He also said there had been no need for training beyond specialist medics before the “completely unexpected use of a nerve agent in an English city”.
After the initial attack, wider training was “appropriate” and was given but should have been more widely circulated.
In a statement following the publication of his report, Lord Hughes said Ms Sturgess’s death was “needless and arbitrary”, while the circumstances are “clear but quite extraordinary”.
“She was the entirely innocent victim of the cruel and cynical acts of others,” he said.
Image: ‘We can finally put her to peace’ . Pic: Met Police/PA
‘We can have Dawn back now’
Speaking after the report was published, Ms Sturgess’s father, Stanley Sturgess, said: “We can have Dawn back now. She’s been public for seven years. We can finally put her to peace.”
In a statement, her family said they felt “vindicated” by the report, which recognised how Wiltshire police wrongly characterised Ms Sturgess as a drug user.
But they said: “Today’s report has left us with some answers, but also a number of unanswered questions.
“We have always wanted to ensure that what happened to Dawn will not happen to others; that lessons should be learned and that meaningful changes should be made.
“The report contains no recommendations. That is a matter of real concern. There should, there must, be reflection and real change.”
Wiltshire Police Chief Constable Catherine Roper admitted the pain of Ms Sturgess’s family was “compounded by mistakes made” by the force, adding: “For this, I am truly sorry.”
Russia has denied involvement
The Russian Embassy has firmly denied any connection between Russia and the attack on the Skripals.
But the chairman dismissed Russia’s explanation that the Salisbury and Amesbury poisonings were the result of a scheme devised by the UK authorities to blame Russia, and the claims of Petrov and Borisov in a television interview that they were sightseeing.
The inquiry chairman said the evidence of a Russian state attack was “overwhelming” and was designed not only as a revenge attack against Mr Skripal, but amounted to a “public statement” that Russia “will act decisively in its own interests”.
Lord Hughes found “some features of the management” of Mr Skripal “could and should have been improved”, including insufficient regular written risk assessments.
But although there was “inevitably” some risk of harm at Russia’s hands, the analysis that it was not likely was “reasonable”, he said.
“There is no sufficient basis for concluding that there ought to have been assessed to be an enhanced risk to him of lethal attack on British soil, such as to call for security measures,” such as living under a new identity or at a secret address, the chairman said.
He added that CCTV cameras, alarms or hidden bugs inside Mr Skripal’s house might have been possible but wouldn’t have prevented the “professionally mounted attack with a nerve agent”.
Sky News has approached the Russian Embassy for comment on the report.
Something concrete and unarguable has emerged from the diplomatic turbulence generated by Donald Trump’s attempts to end the war in Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine has become Europe’s war – in fact, it is unlikely to be America’s problem for long.
The Trump administration’s 20-something-point peace plan, as shepherded by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is going nowhere.
Image: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the European Union leaders’ summit in Brussels, Belgium. Pic: Reuters
When presented with the proposal on Tuesday, a Russian negotiator said President Putin made, “no secret of our critical and even negative attitude toward a number of elements.”
But the words of the Russian leader himself are more instructive. In a belligerent speech made on the same day, he threatened to “cut Ukraine off from the sea entirely” in retaliation to a series of attacks on Russian-linked oil tankers.
This is not a man thinking about doing a deal. Putin is the obvious obstacle.
None of which will have come as any surprise to leaders in Europe and the UK, who did what they typically do when the situation looks grim.
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Image: Servicemen of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Pic: Reuters
Britain, France, Ireland, Germany and others have been issuing lofty declarations of the “we’ll support Ukraine as long as it takes,” variety.
But this time it is different. European leaders are going to have to treat Ukraine like the emergency it is – or face the consequences.
Presently, they occupy a position that many see as absurd.
Europe, including Britain, bankroll the Ukrainian government. Funding which was split down the middle with the Biden administration has been assumed by Europe in full. Furthermore, the Europeans pay for all American weaponry through a NATO facility called PURL.
Image: Firefighters put out a fire after a drone hit a multi-storey residential building during Russia’s night drone attack in Kyiv. Pic: AP
Thus, Europe has got skin in the game – they are paying the bills. But where are they sitting at the negotiation table?
They are not there at all. The Russians do not want them, and the US does not seem particularly keen. When US secretary of state Marco Rubio met a Ukrainian delegation to discuss the peace plan in Geneva, he said he did not know anything about European counter-proposals
“It’s extraordinary that Europe is picking up the bill but struggles to make itself heard,” says Marc De Vore, of St Andrews University. “It shows the lack of vision, coordination and leadership across the continent.”
The former foreign minister of Lithuania, Gabrielius Landsbergis, is utterly exasperated by Europe’s ineffectiveness.
Image: Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner meet with Ukrainian defence chief Rustem Umerov and his delegation in Florida. Pic: Reuters
“If you are a European leader asking your team to book you on the next flight to Washington to go talk to daddy, please don’t. Not without a plan, not cap in hand, not humiliating us all in front of the cameras at the Oval Office.
“Europe is our continent, our future is decided here, not there. We aren’t poor, we have options, we can finally decide to assist Ukraine to the full extent…”
This frustration is shared by the Ukrainians, who have begun to use a different word to describe this relationship – betrayal.
Inna Sovsun is an MP in the Ukrainian parliament. Her husband, a combat medic, is serving at the front.
Image: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy awards a Ukrainian service member, as he visits a frontline position, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
“People on the frontline feel really disappointed with the whole situation, and it does feel like betrayal.
“The challenge is much bigger than which village will be controlled by whom in Donbas. It is about, what does the future of civilisation look like? Does Russia’s barbaric version win? If you are not willing to fight for that, those values aren’t worth much, are they?”
Unsurprisingly perhaps, analysts and others are sketching out what Ukraine would look like if forced to capitulate. The idea here, is that Europe will not like what it sees.
Picture an unstable nation on Europe’s border with a proxy-Russian leader – or different groups battling for control. The population is restive, with many thousands of men both conditioned and traumatised by war. Millions of refugees seek shelter in Europe.
Image: A service member of the 125th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade with a Kalashnikov tank machine gun. Pic: Reuters
Economists have tried to put a figure on such scenarios, with one group estimating costs to Europe approaching €3tn euros in additional defence and refugee-related spending if Ukraine is seriously weakened.
For the Europeans, a test of their resolve is already at hand. The EU must agree on a plan to seize up to €210bn euros in frozen Russian assets as a means of funding the cash-strapped government in Kyiv.
The issue is legally contentious, with countries like Belgium, where much of the money is held, fretting about liability. But the Ukrainians see it as a simple question of commitment.
“Given what is at stake, there just has to be stronger political will. That is what is difficult for us to grasp. (They) say all those good things, the right things, but that doesn’t really matter much,” says Ms Sovsun.
A Palestinian anti-Hamas militia leader has been killed in the Gaza Strip, according to Israeli army radio.
Yasser Abu Shabab, the commander of the former looting gang Popular Forces, along with a large number of members from his group, and senior commander Ghassan al Duhine, reportedly fell into a well-planned ambush set by the resistance factions.
The Reuters news agency reported that Abu Shabab, the most prominent anti-Hamas clan leader in Gaza, had died of his wounds in a hospital in southern Israel. It did not say when he died.
Hamas had no comment, its Gaza spokesperson said, while Israeli authorities did not immediately make any comment.
Image: Ghassan Al Duhine, left, was the deputy commander of the Popular Forces’ military wing. Pic: Facebook
Hamas has accused Abu Shabab of collaborating with Israel, which he denied.
Sky News revealed that Abu Shabab’s Bedouin militia was smuggling vehicles into Gaza with the help of the Israeli military and an Arab-Israeli car dealer.
Popular Forces has been positioning itself as Gaza’s future government, despite denials in June that Abu Shabab had any intention of forming a government in Gaza.
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The militia said at the time that he was focused solely on providing security to aid convoys and Palestinians.
Speaking to Sky News, however, Hassan Abu Shabab, a relative and childhood friend of Yasser Abu Shabab, showed no such restraint – he talked of reforming the school curriculum and holding a referendum on normalising relations with Israel.
“We’d like to run everything,” he said.
Image: Yasser Abu Shabab (right), in a photo uploaded to his social media account. Pic: TikTok
Looting trucks and smuggling cigarettes
He said in October that the recruitment of new militias had swelled Popular Forces’ troops across Gaza to around 3,000.
The headquarters of the militia are located in a small neighbourhood in Gaza’s southern Rafah area, in territory still held by Israeli forces.
The base’s location is strategically important – it sits along the route by which aid trucks must travel when entering Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing, a route that aid officials have named “Looters’ Alley”.
An internal UN report, dated November 2024, identified Abu Shabab and his gang as “the most influential stakeholders behind the systematic and massive looting of convoys”.
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The UN document identified their primary source of income as smuggling cigarettes – one of the many goods which Israel has officially banned from entering Gaza. The price of individual cigarettes has at some points reached $20.
Hassan Abu Shabab admitted that the group was involved in looting trucks and smuggling cigarettes, though he said they only ever targeted commercial trucks they believed to be supplying Hamas.
He said it eventually escalated, with Hamas’s men allegedly killing his cousins in a “massacre” that left 54 people dead.
Sky News could not independently verify his claim, but there were numerous reports of deadly clashes between Abu Shabab’s men and Hamas, which declared the Popular Forces leader a wanted man.