How the spread of Omicron went from patient zero to all around the globe

Published

4 years ago

November 29, 2021

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The speed with which new variants of the COVID-19 virus spread around the world can leave government’s scrambling to catch up. What is sometimes more remarkable is the speed with which those new variants are detected.

It has taken barely two weeks from the initial testing of ‘patient zero’, before potentially the entire globe is readying itself to examine COVID test samples to see if they contain the Omicron variant.

Patient zero, called n=1 or the index case by the scientific community, arrived at Hong Kong International Airport on 11 November, having flown in from South Africa via Doha in Qatar, on flight QR818.

He had been in South Africa for almost three weeks, and had tested negative the day before he began his trip there.

On his return to the territory on the Qatar Airways flight, the 36-year-old was in seat 31A, and was showing no symptoms when he checked into the Regal Airport Hotel in Chek Lap Kok, to begin his mandatory quarantine. He also tested negative on his return.

Hong Kong has some of the most stringent regulations on arrival in the world.

Anyone coming from a “high-risk” country can only board flights for the territory if they are fully-vaccinated Hong Kong residents and even then they have to undergo compulsory isolation for 21 days in a designated quarantine hotel when they arrive.

While in quarantine, they must undergo six COVID tests and then they must monitor themselves for the following seven days, after which they are tested again 26 days after the day of their arrival.

The man in question had fulfilled all the requirements, having received the Pfizer vaccine on 13 May and 4 June, and outwardly there were no signs his case was anything unusual.

But two days into his quarantine, he was tested again, on 13 November, and after showing a high viral load was sent to hospital the next day.

Meanwhile, another passenger that had arrived in Hong Kong the day before the man who later became patient zero, was staying in a room opposite him on the fifth floor of the same quarantine hotel.

He tested negative twice before, on 18 November, a result showed he too had a high viral load and he was also rushed to hospital.

Like all arrivals who test positive after coming to Hong Kong, they were give case numbers – 12388 and 12404.

Early conclusions from Hong Kong’s health authorities were that case 12404 might have been infected with the variant as air flowed into the corridor when case 12388 opened his hotel room door as he was not wearing a surgical mask.

While the test results from the Hong Kong travellers were being analysed, other researchers in South Africa and Botswana were also looking into a newly emerging variant.

Just three days after the Hong Kong traveller went to his quarantine hotel, a number of people were being routinely tested in the South African province of Gauteng.

At around the same time, South Africa, and particularly Gauteng, began to see a sudden uptick in cases.

South African scientists began to come to the conclusion they were seeing something new after detecting a group of related SARS-CoV-2 viruses that were turning up in large numbers, compared to other variants.

Out of the specimens collected between 14 and 23 November, more than 70% were of the same type.

They raised the alarm on 22 November.

The next day the new variant was picked up by GISAID, the open-access database of flu viruses and coronavirus variants that has been critical to spreading news around the world about emerging forms of COVID-19.

On 24 November, it was given a new name under the criteria given to emerging COVID variants – B.1.1.529.

On the same day, the new variant was reported to the World Health Organisation, which convened its technical advisory group – similar to WHO’s equivalent to SAGE – to assess what should be done.

The UK, responding to the rapidly evolving situation, designated the virus type a variant under investigation, VUI-21NOV-01, on 25 November.

As it did so, cases in South Africa were shooting up.

Professor Sharon Peacock of COG-UK Genomics UK Consortium, which oversees sequencing in the UK, said on Friday: “The number of recorded COVID-19 infections on 16 November 2021 was 273 cases. By 25 November this had risen to more than 1,200 cases.

“More than 80% of these were from Gauteng province. Cases in Gauteng province initially appeared to be clustered, but over time there has been more widespread dispersal of infections across the province.

“An analysis of the R value (a measure of growth rate) is 1.47 for South Africa as a whole, but initial estimates for Gauteng province are 1.93. Based on this measurement, it indicates that growth rate of cases is considerably higher in Gauteng province than the rest of the country.

“Around 100 B.1.1.529 genomes have now been identified in South Africa, mostly from Gauteng province. But this region is also where the sequencing has been targeted, and the question is whether the variant is present over a wider geographic area.”

In total, according to the European Centre for Disease Control, South African investigators examined 77 samples in Gauteng taken between 12 and 20 November looking for a specific mutation that suggested Omicron was present, and found it in all cases.

The results, say the ECDC, suggest that Omicron is already dominant in Gauteng and is present in significant proportions in most parts of South Africa.

The question is, what does this mean for the rest of the world?

It is clear that Omicron has been in the UK for several days.

After one of the first cases in England was revealed to have been identified in Brentwood, Essex County Council said staff, customers and delivery workers who visited a branch of KFC on Brentwood High Street on Friday 19 November, between 1pm and 5pm, should take a PCR test immediately – suggesting a person with the variant was in the restaurant at the time.

Likewise, they asked anyone in the congregation of the town’s Trinity Church on Sunday 21 November to do the same.

Essex’s director of public health Dr Mike Gogarty told the BBC’s World At One programme that the person in question was tested on 20 November and has contracted the variant from someone who had been in contact with someone who had been to South Africa – in a clear case of community transmission.

He said: “We are talking probably about two weeks from now since that person returned from Africa.”

Both the UK cases identified on Saturday, which also included one in Nottingham, were linked to travel in South Africa. A third case in the London borough of Westminster, who had previously been in southern Africa, has since left the country.

But while South Africa, like the UK, has an effective system to sequence COVID test samples, many other countries in Africa do not.

Omicron has been detected early in Botswana, but there are concerns it may be widespread in several other nations in southern Africa.

Some 98 samples were sequenced in Botswana to allow the identification of six cases of Omicron by Friday, reported the ECDC, but in the same period countries like Kenya sequenced just five cases, with no Omicron cases.

Israel, one of the world’s most vaccinated countries, said on Friday it had also detected the country’s first case of Omicron in a traveller who had returned from Malawi. Two other suspected cases were also placed in isolation.

On that day, as the world became aware of the extent of the spread, markets reacted with oil prices plunging and airlines shares suffering major losses.

A case was also confirmed in Belgium and on Saturday suspected cases were reported in Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic.

Denmark and Australia announced two cases and the Netherlands identified 13 Omicron cases in dozens of COVID-positive travellers from South Africa on Sunday.

On Monday, further cases were announced in Portugal, where 13 players and staff members of Lisbon soccer team Belenenses were found to be positive for the variant even though only one player had been recently to South Africa.

Countries across the planet have reacted by closing their borders or reintroducing severe travel restrictions.

While scientists have raised the alarm, and have said they expected it to spread, many say there is no more cause for concern in terms of the impact on people, than there might have been if the Delta variant stays dominant.

Reacting to the news cases had been discovered in Scotland, Professor Rowland Kao, the Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science at the University of Edinburgh, said: “It is now clear that the Omicron variant has been spreading around the world for some days, if not weeks prior to the alarms being raised, and this is only to be expected for a virus which transmits as easily as SARS-CoV-2, and with international travel now substantial (even though not quite at the level pre-pandemic).

“Evidence of community spread in two locations in Scotland (ie cases with no obvious risks other than community spread) and no obvious source yet, are strong indicators that we shall see more cases in Scotland arise over the next few days and weeks.

“As always, anything individuals can do to mitigate spread (physical distancing, taking lateral flow tests when appropriate and being aware of COVID symptoms and testing) will be beneficial.

“However it is important to remember that the omicron variant may not pose an increased health risk – it may in fact cause milder infections. However we shall only know for sure in the next few weeks.”

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At least eight people killed in car explosion in New Delhi, police say

Published

15 hours ago

November 10, 2025

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At least eight people killed in car explosion in New Delhi, police say

At least eight people have been killed and at least 19 others injured after a car exploded in New Delhi, say Indian police.

The blast, which triggered a fire that damaged several vehicles parked nearby, happened at the gates of the metro station at the Red Fort, a former Mughal palace and a busy tourist spot.

New Delhi’s international airport, metro stations and government buildings were put on a high security alert after the explosion, the government said. The cause of the explosion is being investigated.

The city’s police commissioner, Satish Golcha, said it happened a few minutes before 7pm.

“A slow-moving vehicle stopped at a red light. An explosion happened in that vehicle, and due to the explosion,
nearby vehicles were also damaged,” he told reporters.

One resident, who did not give a name, told NDTV: “We heard a big sound, our windows shook.”

Sanjay Tyagi, a Delhi police spokesman, said they were still investigating the cause, while the fire service reported that at least six vehicles and three autorickshaws had caught fire.

Images show the burnt-out remnants of several cars and forensic officers at the scene.

Home minister Amit Shah told local media that a Hyundai i20 car exploded near a traffic signal close to the Red Fort. He said CCTV footage from cameras in the area will form part of the investigation.

“We are exploring all possibilities and will conduct a thorough investigation, taking all possibilities into account,” Shah said. “All options will be investigated immediately, and we will present the results to the public.”

The investigation is being conducted by the National Investigation Agency, India’s federal terror investigating agency, and other agencies.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered his condolences to those who have lost their loved ones in the blast.

He posted on X: “May the injured recover at the earliest. Those affected are being assisted by authorities.

“Reviewed the situation with Home Minister Amit Shah Ji and other officials.”

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World

From US enemy to ally? Why ex-jihadist Syrian president’s meeting with Trump is a big deal

Published

1 day ago

November 10, 2025

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From US enemy to ally? Why ex-jihadist Syrian president's meeting with Trump is a big deal

It is a moment few could have imagined just a few years ago but the Syrian president, Ahmed al Sharaa, has arrived in Washington for a landmark series of meetings, which will culminate in a face-to-face with Donald Trump at the White House.

His journey to this point is a remarkable story, and it’s a tale of how one man went from being a jihadist battlefield commander to a statesman on the global stage – now being welcomed by the world’s most powerful nation.

Mr Sharaa became leader of Syria after the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in December last year.

Before that he went by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al Jolani.

During Syria’s brutal civil war, he was the leader of the Nusra Front – a designated terror organisation, the Syrian branch of al Qaeda.

Back then, the thought of him setting foot on US soil and meeting a US president would have been unthinkable. There was a $10m reward for information leading to his capture.

So what is going on? Why is diplomacy being turned on its head?

After 14 years of conflict which started during the so-called Arab Spring, Syria is in a mess.

Mr Sharaa – as the head of the transitional government – is seen by the US as having the greatest chance of holding the country together and stopping it from falling back into civil war and failed state territory.

But to do that, Syria has to emerge from its pariah status and that’s what the US is gambling on and why it’s inclined to offer its support and a warm embrace.

By endorsing Mr Sharaa, it is hoping he will shed his past and emerge as a leader for everyone and unite the country.

Holding him close also means it’s less likely that Iran and Russia will again be able to gain a strong strategic foothold in the country.

So, a man who was once an enemy of the US is now being feted as a potential ally.

There are big questions, though. He has rejected his extremist background, saying he did what he did because of the circumstances of the civil war.

But since he took power, there have been sectarian clashes. In July, fighting broke out between Druze armed groups and Bedouin tribal fighters in Sweida.

It was a sign of just how fragile the country remains and also raises concerns about his ability to be a leader for everyone.

Nonetheless, Mr Sharaa is viewed as the best chance of stabilising Syria and by extension an important part of the Middle East.

Get Syria right, the logic goes, and the rest of the jigsaw will be easier to put and hold together.

The visit to Washington is highly significant and historic. It’s the first-ever official visit by a Syrian head of state since the country’s independence in 1946.

The meeting with Donald Trump is, though, the really big deal. The two men met in Riyadh in May but in the meeting later today they will discuss lifting sanctions – crucial to Syria’s post-war reconstruction – how Syria can help in the fight against Islamic State, and a possible pathway to normalisation of relations with Israel.

The optics will be fascinating as the US continues to engage with a former militant with jihadi links.

It’s a risk, but if successful, it could reshape Syria’s role in the region from US enemy to strong regional ally.

World

Madagascar’s new president Michael Randrianirina denies coup after taking office following Gen Z uprising

Published

1 day ago

November 10, 2025

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Madagascar's new president Michael Randrianirina denies coup after taking office following Gen Z uprising

A Gen Z uprising has pushed Madagascar’s former leader Andry Rajoelina, not only out of office but out of the country.

In his place is Colonel Michael Randrianirina, who was sworn in as president of the island nation last month after his military unit joined the protesters.

Sky News’ Africa correspondent Yousra Elbagir sits down with the new leader.

The first question I ask Colonel Randrianirina, as he sits in an ornate mahogany chair in his military fatigues, is how it feels to be in the palace as president.

He sighs and sinks deeper into the chair. He looks humbled and struggles to find the words.

“How do I put it?” he says. “I am happy and it is also a great honour to have come to this palace to be able to help and support the Malagasy people in deep poverty.”

As commander of an elite non-combatant military unit, Corps d’Administration des Personnels et des Services de l’Armée de Terre (CAPSAT), the colonel rode a wave of Gen Z protests to the palace. On 11 October, he shared a video on social media instructing officers to disobey shoot-to-kill orders and support the movement.

At least 22 protesters have been killed and more than 100 injured after denouncing the power cuts and water shortages that have come to signify government corruption in the impoverished island nation.

Why did he share the pivotal video?

He says: “I am a military officer but I am also part of the people and I will return to the people. When you feel sorry for what the people are suffering from… they have been poor for so long and wealth has been looted – but you still shoot them and kill them. That was not why I entered the military of Madagascar, to kill people.”

Soon after his speech, soldiers allowed the young protesters rejecting then president Andry Rajoelina to occupy Place du 13 Mai Square on Independence Avenue in the heart of Antananarivo, the island nation’s capital.

Colonel Randrianirina paraded through a crowd and addressed them from the hatch of an armoured vehicle. “The president of the nation has to leave… If that does not happen,” he threatened, “we will see”.

After Mr Rajoelina fled Madagascar on 13 October, the National Assembly voted to impeach him for “desertion of duty”. Three days later, Colonel Randrianirina stood in fatigues in front of the palace. With officers by his side, he announced their seizure of power and the dissolution of the constitution and all government institutions outside of the National Assembly.

Shortly after, the African Union suspended Madagascar‘s membership on account of the military takeover.

In the palace as president, he insists that this is not a military coup.

“It is support for the people and the country and for us to not be prone to civil war – between the people – between the military officers and your needs, so you adjust helping to support the people to avoid this.

“We were not conducting any coup at all, it was the president [Rajoelina] himself who decided to leave the country.”

United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres condemned “the unconstitutional change of government in Madagascar” and called for “the return to constitutional order and the rule of law,” when reports of a military takeover first circulated on 16 October. The day we met the new president, he had just been congratulated by France’s President Emmanuel Macron.

Colonel Randrianirina is promising elections in 18 to 24 months, after what he calls a “refoundation and recovery” of the country – a process he admits might take a long time.

Observers are concerned that elections will be postponed and the new president will become another strongman, but Gen Z organisers are holding on to faith that this hard-earned outcome is worth it.

‘We were living under a dictatorship’

I asked a group of five young organisers if they have concerns that the president will become another dictator, just like previous Malagasy rulers who ascended to power off the back of a popular uprising. Ousted president Mr Rajoelina came into power after protests in 2009 that also ended in a CAPSAT-supported coup.

University student Ratsirarisoa Nomena told us: “The new president is not a dictator… he is listening to the people and he is validated by the people.

“We as students also validated him – he is not a dictator because the motivation of the army is from the people for the people.

“We were living under dictatorship. There was no freedom of expression and it was very hard to fight for that in Madagascar. We had to face being injured and losing our lives and the lives of our fellow students. Malagasy citizens who fought with us lost their lives too. This is what we went through – to me, we are halfway to victory.”

Their president is aware of their support and does not credit Gen Z alone for his place in the palace.

“Generation Z are part of the reason [I am here] but the full Malagasy people really wanted change at the time we are speaking,” Mr Randrianirina told me. “The Malagasy people have been suffering for so long and deprived of fundamental rights – no access to water supply and electricity, facing insecurity.

“Malagasy people, including the Gen Z, government officials and trade unions really wanted change so it is the whole Malagasy people that supported me to this point.”

Across Africa, young people are showing their disapproval of the old guard.

Gen Z protesters have made their mark in Tanzania, Kenya, Cameroon, Morocco, Mozambique and Nigeria in 2025 alone – denouncing disputed elections and the corruption impacting their futures.

Is the Gen Z coup of Madagascar a warning for old leaders on a young continent?

“I don’t know what to say about the other countries, but I know my own country,” Mr Randrianirina says.

“If tomorrow the people of Madagascar hate me, then I will leave this palace.”