Have the last few weeks seen a turning point in Boris Johnson’s premiership? 

Dozens of Tories have refused to follow the prime minister’s orders in the voting lobbies on issues as diverse as sleaze and social care.

Meanwhile a handful of Tory MPs have gone public with demands for change, with many more complaining in Westminster’s cafes and bars. At times, it has felt like Mr Johnson was losing his political agility.

“There are too many issues at the moment in which the government is shooting itself in the foot with issues and problems which as I say colleagues are warning and warning and warning about and that are visible from Venus, Mars even maybe visible from Pluto,” northern Tory and ex minister Andrew Percy told Sky News.

“And that has got to stop because we owe the people of this country better than that.”

Mr Percy hasn’t always been a rebel, though he accepts that description now.

Not that long ago he occupied the high profile portfolio of Northern Powerhouse minister until 2017 and was an early backer of Mr Johnson’s leadership in the summer of 2019.

Nor can he just be dismissed as one of a small number of irreconcilables.

Almost one in seven Tory MPs – 52 of them – have rebelled more often than Mr Percy, according to the Public Whip website which provides a crude tally of how many times he and his colleagues have voted against their party.

Yet he is one of the few prepared to go on the record in a television interview quite so expansively with their concerns, and as he sits in his office next to a full size Yorkshire flag, he worries, the government’s political antennae is wonky.

“Those are questions that people around the prime minister and then the senior levels of government have to ask themselves.

“They have to look and see if the setup of this government is broad enough, if it is drawn wide enough from the party if it is reflective of our new voter base, if it’s reflective even of our new base on the back benches.”

Last week, he voted like many others against the government’s social care plans because they will mean the less well off having to pay more than affluent voters before the state steps in and picks up care home bills.

Tory rebels cut the government majority from 80 to 26, setting off alarm bells across the party.

Mr Percy blasts Rishi Sunak’s department, saying their focus on keeping control of public spending is getting in the way of the party meeting its promises.

He said: “The Treasury has to be cognizant of what we promised people, what we told people, and I understand absolutely, you know, public spending is at record levels, you know, the amount of debt we are facing following COVID and all the rest of it is really, really very challenging.

“And these same conversations are happening in governments all across the world. I totally appreciate the challenge, but commitments were made, be that on rail, they were made on social care, they were put into our manifesto, people voted for us on the basis of those and therefore, you know, we need to ensure that we are making good on those promises.”

Beneath the surface this argument, between Tories who want to spend whatever it takes to deliver for voters, and those who think strong public finances are the bedrock of the Tory claim to competence.

Not all promises cost money, however, and Tories across the party are worried one of their biggest weaknesses stems from making offers that never materialise.

Ex-minister Tim Loughton, now a Tory on the home affairs select committee, points the finger firmly at France for the migrant crisis.

However he worries that the government has talked up its ability to find a quick fix too often when it is unable to find an easy solution.

“There is a genuine concern that the government has talked tough,” he told me. “The government genuinely wants this trade to end, as we all do, but we haven’t been able to achieve that on our own because most of the cards are in the hands of French.

“And perhaps it wasn’t wise to overpromise when we couldn’t rely on the partnership we need to solve this.”

Soon there will be two opportunities for voters to pass their verdict, with two traditionally safe Tory seats heading to the polls for a byelection.

This Thursday will see the vote in Bexley and Old Sidcup where the south London voters will choose a successor to popular minister James Brokenshire, who died of cancer in October.

Two weeks later, voters in North Shropshire will elect a successor to disgraced ex-minister Owen Paterson. Few expect an upset in Bexley, although some Liberal Democrats say they are putting in a concerted effort in Shropshire.

On the streets of Bexley, however, there was little sign of danger for Mr Johnson, where at times voters appeared more forgiving than his own MPs.

Tory voters there talk of Mr Johnson going “off the boil” and “fumbling” and doing things that mean they “lack confidence”.

Asked if that means they will take their vote elsewhere, most said not, often arguing he had been dealt an unprecedented bad hand.

This could be dismissed as an outlier result in a safe Tory seat, but the national opinion polls suggest that even after the most recent few weeks, Mr Johnson’s party enjoys an advantage.

The most recent YouGov survey from last week puts the Tories on 36% and Labour on 35%.

Older voters in the 65 and above category are twice as likely to vote Tory than Labour, an advantage Labour has not yet begun to directly tackle.

Meanwhile there is little sign Keir Starmer’s Labour is winning over Tory votes directly. Amongst those who voted Tory in 2019, 6% would now choose to vote for Labour but twice as many, 11%, would go for the little known Brexit Party successor, Reform UK.

The last three weeks have seen doubts about Mr Johnson in Westminster unthinkable even during Tory conference in early October, as well as calls for him to shake up his team and signs of fissures in government.

It is not yet clear those doubts in Westminster have filtered through and changed the voting habits in the country.

The government is hoping the French will work with the UK on halting migrant crossings despite being disinvited from talks.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid defended Boris Johnson after the prime minister tweeted out a letter he sent to French President Emmanuel Macron, which angered Paris and got Home Secretary Priti Patel disinvited from a meeting on the crossings today.

He told Sky News’ Trevor Phillips On Sunday: “We can’t just do it on our own, we do need the co-operation of the French and again, you asked me about the prime minister’s letter and I think what the prime minister has set out, those are exactly the kind of things that we need to do and I hope that the French will take that and work with us.”

The meeting, organised after 27 people died trying to cross the Channel on Wednesday, will go ahead without Ms Patel today. Interior ministers from France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and the European Commission will attend.

Mr Javid called France “our friend” and said he thinks the five points Mr Johnson set out to tackle the issue of people crossing the Channel in small boats “are all the right issues”.

“We should be working together on them,” he added.

One of the points called for asylum seekers arriving in the UK in boats to be returned to France as the government says they should claim asylum in the first safe country they get to.

This is also said to have angered the French government.

Mr Javid said: “Whatever we can do, we still need to have co-operation with our French friends.

“I think reaching out to them and suggesting, making proactive suggestions, whether it is joint patrolling, whether it is a terms agreement, I think these are all the right things to do.”

Labour criticised both the UK and French governments, with shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy saying they are “engaging in a blame game while children drown off our coastline”.

She told Phillips: “It’s just simply unconscionable and any responsible government on either side of the Channel would set aside those differences and work together to deal with what is a collective shared problem that will only be solved together.”

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Ms Nandy added that legitimate routes to the UK to help people fleeing war and persecution need to be developed.

“These routes simply don’t exist, and they won’t exist as long as the government continues to engage in a blame game with others and doesn’t do the hard yards of sitting down around the table and agreeing how we’re going to tackle this together,” she said.

It has been a tough month for the prime minister, who has faced sleaze accusations over now-ex Conservative MP Owen Paterson’s lobbying breaches, saw his majority slashed over social care changes, praised Peppa Pig World in a speech, had a diplomatic argument with France over migrant crossings and now a new variant.

Backbench MPs have heavily criticised the prime minister on all accounts but asked whether Mr Johnson could still win an election, Mr Javid said: “Yes, absolutely.

“This is a government that delivers on its promises and deals with the challenges they face.”

The health secretary has said it is going to be a “great Christmas” as he defended not imposing stricter restrictions to combat the new COVID variant.

Sajid Javid told Trevor Phillips On Sunday it would be “irresponsible to make guarantees” but the measures announced this week in reaction to the Omicron variant will “buy us time” to enable scientists to assess it.

“People should continue with their plans as normal for Christmas, I think it’s going to be a great Christmas,” he said.

Mr Javid said he did not think stricter measures needed to be imposed just yet as social distancing and work from home directives “carry a very heavy price, economically, socially, in terms of non-COVID health outcomes”.

“If one was to make decisions like that they’d have to be made very very carefully, we’re not there yet, we’re nowhere near that,” he added.

The new measures are:

• Anyone arriving in the UK will have to take a PCR test and self-isolate until they get a negative result

• From Tuesday, face coverings will also be compulsory in shops and on public transport in England

• Those who come into contact with someone who tests positive for the Omicron variant will need to self-isolate for 10 days, even if they are fully vaccinated – this will be introduced “as soon as possible”

• South Africa, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Angola, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia are now on the red list so arrivals will have to quarantine in a government-approved hotel for 10 days at a cost of £2,285.

Challenged on whether people will listen to the mask mandate given a drop in the public wearing masks, Mr Javid said: “This is about protecting the progress we’ve made.

“You said in your estimation about a third of people don’t wear masks but I would think you probably haven’t been taking those soundings since people have begun to understand more about this new variant and why the government has thought these new measures are appropriate.

“I do think people will take this more seriously and I think that will apply to public transport, it will apply to shops, it will be a regulation as it has been before.

“But it’s important to react in a proportionate, and also a temporary way, I hope this is something we can remove within weeks.”