‘Sabotage’: What we know about the Nord Stream gas leaks and who was behind them
The EU has declared three leaks in two Russia-Germany gas pipelines to be the work of sabotage and suspicion has fallen on Russia.
Some commentators have suggested the leaks are linked to the Ukraine war, though the Kremlin has described the accusations it was behind them as “predictable” and “stupid”.
Here is what we know about what happened to Nord Stream 1 and 2, who could have been responsible and what’s being done about it.
What happened and where
On Monday morning, at around 2am local time, bubbles are thought to have started erupting on the surface of a section of the Baltic Sea between Sweden and Poland, about 14 miles (23km) southeast of Denmark’s Bornholm Island.
That morning, it was reported that pressure in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline had dropped overnight from 105 bars to 7 bars, indicating a leak.
The Nord Stream 2 pipe runs for 764 miles (1,230km) from Russia through the Baltic Sea to Germany and had been due to carry billions of cubic feet of gas to Europe until Russia invaded Ukraine and Germany refused to grant the pipeline’s operators a licence, leaving it mothballed.
Denmark scrambled military aircraft to look for signs of a leak and identified an area of disturbed sea, which they designated a danger to shipping.
The time of the leak was confirmed by readings taken by seismologists in neighbouring countries, who registered the equivalent of an earthquake magnitude of 1.8, which they triangulated to have occurred at almost exactly the same spot as the leak was bubbling to the surface.
About 17 hours after the Nord Stream 2 reading was taken, a second reading was recorded by seismologists northeast of Bornholm, indicating another incident.
Shortly after, Nord Stream AG, the operator of the Nord Stream 1, said it was looking into causes of a drop in pressure in the pipeline.
Again, seismologists’ readings located the incident to a specific location – around 34 miles (55km) northeast of Bornholm Island.
The following morning, Sweden’s Maritime Authority issued a warning of two leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in its and Danish waters, bringing the total number of leaks to three.
Nord Stream 1 follows a similar but not identical route from Russia to Germany and had been used to ship Russian gas to Europe since 2011, until the outbreak of the Ukraine war.
As Europe reeled from the Vladimir Putin’s invasion, it moved to reduce its reliance on gas from Russia, and simultaneously, flows through Nord Stream 1 to Europe from Russia decreased until no gas was flowing through the pipeline.
Footage from the scene taken from a Danish plane showed frothy seas, up to a kilometre wide.
What do the experts say
Initially, the European countries nearby were cautious, saying investigation was needed to find out what had happened.
The operator of the pipelines said the leaks were “unprecedented”, but did not have an explanation for them.
The Kremlin was quick to say sabotage could not be ruled out.
In the course of Tuesday, seismologists who had recorded the incidents said their analysis indicated the tremors had been caused by explosions.
Bjorn Lund, director of the Swedish National Seismic Network, said: “There’s no doubt, this is not an earthquake.”
By Wednesday, many politicians were adamant that the damage to the pipes was caused by human activity and deliberate, rather than because of earthquakes or accidental.
Danish defence minister Morten Bodskov said on Wednesday: “Our assessment is… that the breakage on the pipes is not an accident but a deliberate act.”
The Danish and Swedish military have been observing the bubbling at the surface. Pic: Swedish Coast Guard
Who was responsible
Very early on, suspicion fell on Russia. A number of commentators asked who would profit from such ruptures in the pipelines, noting how it had the potential to affect gas prices.
Ukraine blamed Russia immediately, with presidential adviser Myhailo Podolyak saying the leak was “a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU”, without offering any evidence.
Gas prices soared again on Monday, largely in reaction to a threat from Moscow to sanction Ukrainian energy firm Naftogaz, raising the possibility that one of the last functioning Russian gas supply routes to Europe would close down.
But many expressed disbelief that Russia would target infrastructure that carried gas that it had sold, threatening its future revenues. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called such accusations “predictable and… stupid”.
Yet there has been much speculation that an attack by Russia on the pipelines could be a warning to the West not to escalate the Ukraine war further.
This is because the pipelines were not operational at the time and they supplied Russian gas, so would be less likely to be seen as a further significant provocation.
Russia has been becoming increasingly frustrated that Western supplied weapons have been helping Ukraine resist Moscow’s invasion.
On Tuesday Poland’s President Andrzej Duda symbolically opened the valve of a yellow pipe belonging to the Baltic Pipe, a new system sending Norwegian gas across Denmark and the Baltic Sea to Poland, which he hailed as ending “Russian domination in the gas sphere”.
Some commentators have pointed out that while the gas leaks erupted in Denmark and Sweden’s Exclusive Economic Zones, they were outside their territorial waters, and therefore could be classed as having happened in international waters, making retaliation more complicated.
Others have cited the fact that there are significant networks of piping under the North Sea that could be vulnerable to attack. If the cause of the leaks is proven to have been an attack, it would reveal the ease with which undersea infrastructure can be targeted.
The method used by any potential saboteurs is far from clear. Russia has submarines which Western experts say are equipped to attack international internet cables, but there are suggestions the vessel was out of range at the time. Others say deep sea divers, travelling from the nearby Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, could have planted a device.
How will we find out
Experts say they expect that navies from surrounding countries will send teams with specialist experience into the area to carry out investigations.
Mr Bodskov said the Danish military had increased its presence within and around the area of Bornholm and they would be “doing everything within their power to get this clarified which is happening in close collaboration with our partners”.
But he said it may take some weeks.
“If you listen to the experts about how much gas there is the pipes and how long it will take before the pressure drops, then the reality is that might take a week, 14 days before it is calm enough in the area to actually see what has happened,” he added.
Any investigation is likely to look closely at damage to the pipes, which, at around 1,153mm in diameter with 34mm thick steel walls, surrounded by, in some cases, more than 110mm of concrete, would be difficult to crack.
Investigations are likely to look at damage to the pipe which is 34mm thick steel and covered, when underwater, with more than 100mm of concrete
Peter Faulding, one of the foremost British underwater forensic investigators, whose Specialist Group International has been involved in numerous undersea investigations carried out by UK police, said he expects the initial investigation to involve remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), which are also known as drones.
“People will be very wary about putting divers near it because… you’ve got a large amount of gas coming out,” he told Sky News.
“I would say they’d be using remote operated vehicles to go down. An ROV, because they have manipulators on the front. If there was any debris, the manipulator… can retrieve the evidence and an ROV will give crystal clear pictures without putting a diver in jeopardy.
“A lot them are autonomous now. They can send them down without a cable and they can actually pick things up off the sea bed.
“You would see what it was. If it was done with explosive, it will be very rough. There’ll be residues. There’d be fragments.“
“From that, they can carry out appropriate forensic tests to see what explosive it was, if an explosive has been used.”
Mr Faulding, who has previous military experience and carries out consultancy work for the energy industry, said once it was safe, because the pipelines are at a depth of about 70m, the navies would probably put down divers operating out of a diving bell, but they would have to breathe a special mixture and would work in a similar way to those who carry out work on undersea oil facilities.
He said it should not be difficult to work out which explosive, if any, had been used, but it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to work out who carried out an attack.
What are the consequences
In the immediate aftermath, European leaders expressed concern and said they would work to find out what had happened.
The gas markets remained volatile, but experts said that much of Tuesday’s volatility was due to fears that Russia would stop shipping gas through Ukraine, rather that because of the possibility of an attack on Nord Stream 1 or 2.
Nonetheless, experts said that the leaks had added to the uncertainty that has been fuelling much higher gas prices this year than in previous years.
Norway has a substantial gas and oil industry network across the North Sea, supplying much of Europe
Gas analyst Tom Marzec-Manser told Sky News: “The market opened bullishly yesterday in response to the Nord Stream stuff. But then it jumped significantly when that Ukraine development happened, when Gazprom threatened the sanctions. That actually was a larger wedge of the gains yesterday. But it’s definitely all part and parcel of the… loss of yet more Russian gas (being) the main driver to a 27% jump yesterday in wholesale prices.”
Despite doubts in the gas industry that any potential attacks could spread, Norway’s state oil company, Equinor, said it would raise its level of preparedness.
The alert was raised overnight and applies to all of Equinor’s facilities.
Norway is a major producer of offshore oil and gas and its energy exports have surged as European countries scramble to find alternatives to Russian energy supplies.
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said: “We are concerned with taking good care of the safety of our own oil and gas installations, and we have stepped up the state of preparedness regarding them today.”
Royal Norwegian Navy officer Lieutenant Commander Tor Ivar Strommen warned that there could be attacks on Norwegian energy exports “in the next half year”.
NATO and the European Union stressed the need to protect critical infrastructure and warned of a “robust and united response” should there be more attacks.
Mr Strommen told Reuters: “The Norwegian government has to realise that by far the most important strategic object in all of Europe now is the energy or gas imports from Norway.
“If those deliveries should be cut or stopped or reduced by a large amount, this would cause a complete energy crisis in Europe.”
A controversial Israeli minister has said Gaza could be a “real estate bonanza” – and that a business plan for redeveloping it had been sent to the US president.
Bezalel Smotrich, the country’s far-right finance chief, told a Tel Aviv conference he had “started negotiations” with the US on how to share the proceeds of any future deal.
The comments echo controversial remarks by Donald Trump in February, when he said America would take over Gaza and redevelop it into the “riviera of the Middle East” – with its population going to “various domains”.
He later shared a AI-generated video showing it as a Dubai-style city, featuring exotic beaches, skyscrapers, luxury yachts and people partying.
Mr Smotrich told the urban regeneration event “there’s a business plan set by the most professional people there is and is on President Trump’s table and how this thing turns into a real estate bonanza. I’m not kidding; it pays off”.
The minister, who is sanctioned by countries including the UK, Canada and Australia, claimed discussions were already under way on how cash from redeveloping Gaza’s shattered landscape would be allocated.
Mr Smotrich said Israel had “paid a lot of money for this war, so we need to divide how we make a percentage on the land marketing later in Gaza”.
He added: “We’ve done the demolition phase, which is always the first phase of urban renewal. Now we need to build; it’s much cheaper.”
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Tanks roll into Gaza as Israeli offensive begins
Any effort to forcibly displace Gaza’s population for a building project would almost certainly breach the Geneva Convention and cause international outrage – as Mr Trump found when he mooted his plan earlier this year.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza ratcheted up this week as it launched a major ground offensive to seize all of Gaza City and destroy Hamas.
Thousands are heading south with whatever they can in an effort to avoid being killed in the fighting.
The operation has prompted widespread condemnation, with UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper calling it “utterly reckless and appalling”.
Ms Cooper – who helped greet the pro-Israel President Trump when he landed in Britain on Tuesday – said it would “only bring more bloodshed, kill more innocent civilians & endanger the remaining hostages”.
With no sign of an imminent ceasefire in Gaza and the situation increasingly dire, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is expected to shortly announce Britain’s recognition of a Palestinian state.
It is believed he could make the declaration at the weekend to avoid causing division on the issue while President Trump is in the country.
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Sky News analysis shows major escalation in war
The two leaders are holding talks today at Chequers, with the prime minister under pressure to urge Mr Trump to use his influence over Israel to rein in its new offensive.
The prime minister said in July that recognition would come unless Israel met certain conditions, including taking “substantive steps” to end the war and commit to long-term peace.
France, Canada and Australia are also set to recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly next month, while Ireland, Spain and Norway all took the step last year.
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Israel says the recognition of a Palestinian state is unacceptable, rewards Hamas, and makes it harder to create the conditions needed to free the remaining hostages.
More than 65,000 people in Gaza have now been killed in the war, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. The figure does not specify the number of Hamas members killed.
At least 63 people were killed on Wednesday, with most of the casualties in Gaza City, local health authorities said.
The Hamas terror attack on Israel in October 2023 saw around 1,200 people killed and 251 people taken hostage. Forty-eight remain in Gaza, but fewer then half are thought to still be alive.
A report this week from a UN commission said Israel was committing genocide in Gaza – a claim the country vehemently denies as “distorted and false”.
Sky News analysis shows thousands of families remain in crowded tent camps in Gaza City, with the UN estimating last week that a million people remain there.
Israel, however, believes 40% of the population has already fled south and on Wednesday opened a new evacuation route for 48 hours.
Ukraine’s defence of the crucial city of Pokrovsk, which has held out for more than a year despite fierce Russian assaults, could be coming to an end as invading forces squeeze the resistance out.
Elsewhere, Ukraine’s troops are facing attacks along the frontline, with Moscow reportedly using a pipeline to move personnel in the northeast near Kupyansk as it seeks to create even more pressure on Kyiv’s stretched resources.
It comes after Volodymyr Zelenskyy used an exclusive interview with Sky News to call on Donald Trump to take a “clear position” on a sanctions package for Russia and security guarantees for Ukraine.
Sky News has a look at what has been happening at some key parts of the frontline.
‘Kill zone’ as around Pokrovsk
Ukrainian forces have been engaged in a bitter struggle to hold the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk for more than a year, with Russian troops at times attempting to encircle the defenders there.
The situation there is worsening, says Dr Marina Miron, an expert at the defence studies department at King’s College London.
She cited reports that Russian forces are controlling all supply routes and have “created a kill zone” using drones, making it very difficult for Ukraine to resupply its troops there.
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Sky’s exclusive interview with Zelenskyy: What are the key takeaways?
A road and rail node, Pokrovsk had a pre-war population of around 60,000 people. It’s viewed by Russia as “the gateway to Donetsk”.
Capturing it would severely hamper Ukrainian supply lines and endanger crucial cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
“It will take time because what the Russians are trying to do essentially is to squeeze the Ukrainians out,” Dr Miron told Sky News.
“They don’t want to storm the city as it’s too difficult and too manpower intensive – assuming a lot of losses.” Instead, they are trying to surround it completely, she added.
This reflects a “changed approach”, Dr Miron says, with the Russian military appearing to favour slower encirclement operations rather than the high-casualty assault waves with which places like Bakhmut were captured.
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Battles in the northeast
Meanwhile, Russian forces have advanced near Kupyansk in northeast Ukraine, not far from the fortress city of Kharkiv, the Institute for the Study of War thinktank reported on Monday.
Like other targets along the Ukrainian frontline, Kupyansk is a key transport and logistics hub, being the location at which several major rail lines converge.
“It seems like they are pretty close,” Dr Miron said, discussing the positions of Russian forces around Kupyansk.
The aftermath of a Russian drone attack in Kharkiv. Pic: Reuters
Earlier this week, Ukraine’s military said Russia had moved personnel to the area via a pipeline, but said the exit from the pipe is under control of Ukrainian defenders.
“A counter-sabotage operation is underway in the city, and search and strike operations are underway around the city,” the Kyiv’s General Staff said on Telegram on Saturday.
A Ukrainian gunner on the Pokrovsk defensive line fires a self-propelled howitzer towards Russian forces. Pic: Reuters
Ukrainian police try to persuade residents to evacuate Pokrovsk. Pic: Reuters
Kupyansk, which was recaptured by Ukrainian troops in their counteroffensive in autumn 2022, has been largely destroyed in the course of the war and continues to face attacks.
Dr Miron said it’s likely that the push towards Kupyansk is part of an effort by Moscow to retake some of those lost territories, or perhaps an effort to seize land that it can then use as a bargaining chip in any future negotiations.
The suspect in the Madeleine McCann case celebrated his release from prison with a fast-food breakfast of chicken nuggets and a burger.
Christian B, 49, was smuggled from a jail near Hanover, hidden in the back of his lawyer’s car and managed to avoid being filmed or pictured by scores of camera operators who had been waiting for several days.
But a photographer caught up with him as he stopped briefly at a McDonald’s restaurant.
Read more: Madeleine McCann suspect released after serving rape sentence
Christian B, who cannot be fully identified under German privacy laws, stood outside and smoked a cigarette before eating his food.
Dressed in a lilac shirt, beige trousers and trainers, he ordered chicken nuggets with sweet-and-sour sauce, a burger and a hot drink.
He wore sunglasses, but they did little to disguise the distinctive features that have appeared on TV and on the front of newspapers around the world.
After 15 minutes, he left the restaurant as police blocked the street to allow him to leave freely.
Pic: Markus Hibbeler/Bild
Pic: Markus Hibbeler/Bild
He was driven off again in the black Audi saloon in which his lawyer Friedrich Fulscher had collected him an hour earlier from Sehnde prison.
It’s not known where Christian B was headed after completing an unrelated sentence for the rape of an elderly woman, or who will help him adjust to his new life of freedom.
As part of his release conditions, he’s been fitted with an electronic ankle tag, has had to surrender his passport and register his permanent address with probation officers.
Another of his lawyers, Philipp Marquort, said: “This is an attempt by the public prosecutor’s office to keep him in a kind of pre-trial detention where they would have access to him at any time. We will not accept that.”
German prosecutor Hans Christian Wolters, who leads the Madeleine investigation, believes Christian B abducted and murdered the three-year-old during a family holiday in Portugal in 2007.
The suspect, who has convictions for child sex abuse, theft, drug trafficking and forgery, denies any involvement.
Explainer: The chequered history of Christian B
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Madeleine McCann suspect released from jail
Madeleine vanished from her bed in a rented apartment as her parents and their friends dined nearby at the hotel complex in Praia da Luz.
Mr Wolters told Sky News he had “almost” enough evidence to charge the suspect, but could not justify arresting him and stopping him from being freed.
He said: “He is dangerous, a psychopath, and we hope he does not commit more crimes, but it is likely he will.”
He said he hadn’t ruled out the chance of charging Christian B: “At the moment, we still have lines of investigation we are pursuing, and we hope we may gain more evidence or indications.
“If that happens, our situation would of course improve, and we would prefer to go to court with that stronger position.”
Madeleine McCann has been missing since 2007. Pic: PA
Christian B, who flitted between Germany and Portugal, has served seven years for the rape of a 72-year-old American woman in Praia da Luz – two years before Madeleine vanished.
He is expected to appear in a German court next month to face a charge of using insulting behaviour towards a female prison warder. A conviction could put him back in jail.
He also faces a possible retrial after the prosecutor’s appeal against his acquittal last year on unrelated rape and child sex allegations.
Scotland Yard detectives, who failed to charge anyone in their own investigation, revealed this week they had asked Christian B to answer their questions, but he refused, as he has with their German and Portuguese colleagues.
His lawyers dismissed it as an illegal request because investigators had shared none of the prosecution files with him.
According to the prosecutor, the evidence against Christian B in the Madeleine case is circumstantial; his mobile phone was nearby her apartment at the time she vanished, he was a convicted child sex abuser, he had allegedly confessed to a friend, and he had re-registered his car the day after.
There is no forensic evidence to link the suspect to the abduction – and after 18 years, the chances of finding it must be remote.
Read more from Martin Brunt:
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‘Different theory’ in McCann case
German criminal profiler Mark T Hofmann told Sky News: “I’m a big believer in second chances, but I’m not that much of a big believer in tenth chances.
“So if you commit a crime, and you do it again and again and again and again, then you need to ask yourself like, why should we believe that he will stop now?
“I wish, and I hope that also he realises that he can maybe now live a different life anonymously in some place, and hopefully stop committing crimes.”
Madeleine’s parents Kate and Gerry McCann, from Leicestershire, cling to the hope their daughter might still be found alive, in the absence of any evidence they are aware of to show she is dead.
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