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Prime Minister Liz Truss’s external adviser on the economy has told Sky News that the chancellor had “taken his eye off the ball” and “overstepped the mark” with his mini-budget.

Gerard Lyons, who is often referred to as Ms Truss’s favourite economist, said Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng failed to adequately prepare the financial markets ahead of his announcement.

Speaking on The Take With Sophy Ridge, Mr Lyons said: “The chancellor, whilst he had focused on the general public and on British businesses, he had not really prepared the financial markets fully.

“And I think he had taken his eye off the ball slightly, shall we say, in having not prepared the markets for what he was doing in the budget and I felt that he overstepped the mark last week.

“So it was a combination of all three factors – the febrile markets because of the global backdrop, the actions of the Bank of England last Thursday, but let’s be in no doubt, it was primarily the mini-budget last Friday that triggered this latest series of events.”

Asked if he had had any conversations with Ms Truss or her team, Mr Lyons said he had “made my thoughts known”. He said he was “highlighting in my writing… about the febrile state of the markets and the need to keep the markets onside”.

Pushed on whether they had taken his advice, he said: “Well, sometimes people listen, sometimes they don’t, but there were positives that came out of it. But as we saw last Friday, there was just not enough in line with what the markets had been prepped for and were expecting.”

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Despite his remarks, Mr Lyons said the budget was “very positive in many respects”.

He said it was “very much on a pro-growth agenda” which was needed to “break out of this low-growth phrase”.

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‘Mini-budget not what the markets were expecting’

Mr Lyons’s remarks about the chancellor failing to prepare the financial markets were contrasted by a minister who told deputy political editor Sam Coates it was “bulls***t” to say market movement was related to the mini-budget announcement.

And on The Take with Sophy Ridge, chief secretary to the Treasury Chris Philp denied the government had any responsibility and said there would be no change of course.

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Chief Sec bullish on tax cuts

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“Getting Britain’s economy growing is so important. Important to raise wages and important to pay the tax bills of the future,” he said.

Mr Philp suggested benefits may not be hiked in line with spiralling inflation. He said a commitment by former chancellor Rishi Sunak to uprate benefits in line with inflation was under consideration amid reports different government departments have been asked to draw up plans for efficiency savings.

Mr Philp told ITV’s Peston: “We are going to look for efficiencies wherever we can find them.”

But he said the Treasury would not commit to an expected uprating of benefits in line with inflation.

Pressed about the decision, he said: “I am not going to make policy commitments on live TV, it is going to be considered in the normal way, we will make a decision and it will be announced I am sure in the first instance to the House of Commons.”

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On Wednesday the Bank of England was forced to launch an emergency government bond-buying programme to prevent borrowing costs from spiralling out of control and stave off a “material risk to UK financial stability”.

The Bank will buy as many long-dated government bonds as needed between now and 14 October in a bid to stabilise financial markets.

The announcement had an immediate effect on the market, with data showing 30-year bond yields fell back to 4.3%, having risen to levels above 5% not seen since 2002, earlier on Wednesday. There were similar falls for 20-year yields.

Ms Truss is expected to face public questioning about her economic plans for the first time on Thursday as she tours regional BBC radio stations in a morning round of interviews. Neither the prime minister nor the chancellor were anywhere to be seen or heard on the economy on Wednesday.

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Spending review 2025: The key announcements

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Spending review 2025: The key announcements

Rachel Reeves is setting out her spending review in the House of Commons.  

It outlines how much funding individual government departments will receive over the next three years and state infrastructure investment for the next four years.

The last spending review took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, and before that, in 2015.

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Here’s what’s been announced so far – please refresh this page for updates.

Defence

A major recipient of funds is the Ministry of Defence. Defence spending will rise from 2.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 2.6% by 2027. An £11bn uplift and a £600 million uplift for security and intelligence agencies.

Within that there’ll be £4.5bn of investment in munitions made in Glasgow and more than £6bn to upgrade to nuclear submarine production.

Border security

The chancellor goes onto border security, where she says funding will increase with up to £280m more per year by the end of the spending review for the new Border Security Command.

She said the Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will end the costly use of hotels to house asylum seekers by 2029.

The chancellor says funding she has announced today, including from the transformation fund, will also cut the asylum backlog, see more appeal cases heard and “return people who have no right to be here”.

This will save the taxpayer £1bn a year, she says.

Energy

The biggest nuclear building programme for half a century has been announced with £14.2bn being poured into the Sizewell C nuclear power station on the Suffolk coastline.

A total of £14bn will go to the Sizewell C nuclear power plant. Another £2.5bn will be invested in a new small modular reactor programme.

A commitment to nuclear was reiterated, with £30bn allocated.

Science and technology

Moving on from energy and infrastructure, the chancellor says she wants the country’s high tech industries in Britain to continue to lead the world in the years to come.

Research and development funding will go to a record high of £22bn a year by the end of the spending period.

The government’s artificial intelligence action plan will receive £2bn.

Housing

Government funding of social and affordable housing has been allocated £39bn – which she called the “biggest cash injection into social housing in 50 years”.

She says she is providing an additional £10bn for financial investments, including to be delivered through Homes England, to help unlock hundreds of thousands more homes.

Transport

The chancellor announced £15bn for new rail, tram and bus networks across the West Midlands and the North. She’s also green-lit a new rail line between Liverpool and Manchester.

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Spending review: More cash for schools, NHS and defence expected as chancellor unveils plans

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Spending review: More cash for schools, NHS and defence expected as chancellor unveils plans

The chancellor will unveil the spending review at lunchtime – with plans to invest billions of pounds across the UK.

However, Rachel Reeves will admit that “too many people” are yet to feel the benefits of the government’s work so far.

In the House of Commons, she will confirm the budgets for each government department over the next three years – with boosts expected for schools, defence and the NHS.

Ms Reeves will vow to spend vast sums of money across the country to “ensure that renewal is felt in people’s everyday lives, their jobs, their communities”.

She is also pledging to set out “reforms that will guarantee towns and cities outside London and the South East can benefit from new investment”.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the government's spending plans for the next three years. Pic: Reuters
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the government’s spending plans for the next three years. Pic: Reuters

Ms Reeves is expected to say: “This government is renewing Britain. But I know too many people in too many parts of the country are yet to feel it.

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“This government’s task – my task – and the purpose of this spending review – is to change that … So that people can see a doctor when they need one. Know that they are secure at work. And feel safe on their local high street.

“The priorities in this spending review are the priorities of working people. To invest in our country’s security, health and economy so working people all over our country are better off.”

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What to expect from the spending review

Watch live coverage of the spending review on Sky News from 12pm

Ms Reeves will formally confirm “the biggest-ever local transport infrastructure investment in England’s city regions” – worth £15.6bn – as well as £86bn to “boost science and technology”, including by building the Sizewell C nuclear power station.

She will also announce the extension of the £3 cap on bus fares, Sky News understands. The cap – which Labour lifted from £2 – was due to expire at the end of this year.

Meanwhile, £39bn for a new Affordable Homes Programme over the next 10 years is set to be unveiled, with the government seeking to ramp up housebuilding to hit its manifesto pledge of 1.5 million new homes by the end of this parliament.

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‘You are everyone’s worst enemy’

The chancellor will argue: “The choices in this spending review are possible only because of the stability I have introduced and the choices I took in the autumn.”

One of those choices included cutting the winter fuel allowance for almost all pensioners – a decision the government has now U-turned on at a cost of £1.25bn. However, she is not expected to explain where that money will come from until the budget this autumn.

Ms Reeves will tell MPs: “I have made my choices. In place of chaos, I choose stability. In place of decline, I choose investment. In place of retreat, I choose national renewal.

“These are my choices. These are this government’s choices. These are the British people’s choices.”

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But shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said this will be “the ‘spend today, tax tomorrow’ spending review” – arguing that the government is “spending money it doesn’t have, with no credible plan to pay for it”.

He said in a statement: “Rachel Reeves talks about ‘hard choices’ – but her real choice has been to take the easy road. Spend more, borrow more, and cross her fingers. This spending review won’t be a plan for the future – it will be a dangerous gamble with Britain’s economic stability.”

He went on: “Today, we’ll hear slogans, spin and self-congratulation – but not the truth. Don’t be fooled. Behind the spin lies a dangerous economic gamble that risks the country’s financial future.”

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Jobless rate above predicted peak as budget tax hikes kick in

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Jobless rate above predicted peak as budget tax hikes kick in

The UK’s jobless rate ticked up to 4.6% in April while payrolled employment has fallen sharply since, according to official figures covering the period when budget tax hikes on businesses came into effect.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the new unemployment rate covering the three months to April was the highest since July 2021.

It had previously stood at 4.5% – a total of more than 1.6 million people.

At 4.6%, it is above the peak level predicted for this year, just in March, by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

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Figures from the taxman also highlighted by the ONS showed the number of people in payrolled employment during May fell by 109,000 – double April’s revised figure of 55,000 and the biggest monthly drop in five years.

The ONS Labour Force Survey data was the first to cover April’s rises in employer national insurance contributions and the national living wage – hikes to costs for businesses which lobby groups had warned would result in job losses, price rises and lower wage settlements.

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The ONS figures showed average weekly earnings, excluding the effects of bonuses, over the three months to April were weaker, from a downwardly revised 5.5% to 5.2% year on year.

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Cost of living impacts families

Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, said: “There continues to be weakening in the labour market, with the number of people on payroll falling notably.

“Feedback from our vacancies survey suggests some firms may be holding back from recruiting new workers or replacing people when they move on.”

The ONS data piles more pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, just a day after she confirmed her winter fuel U-turn would cost £1.25bn.

She has consistently defenced her budget, arguing the taxes on business were a one-off necessary evil to account for a £22bn “black hole” in the public finances inherited from the last government.

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How big is winter fuel payments U-turn?

Employment minister Alison McGovern said in response to the data: “Six months after we launched Get Britain Working, we are already seeing the benefits with economic activity at a record high, with 500,000 more people in employment since we entered office and real wages growing more since July than in the decade after 2010.

“People all over the country are benefiting from increased training opportunities and the newly launched Jobs and Careers Service will allow us to test new and innovative approaches to personalise employment support.”

Despite the wage figure easing, that 5.2% level remains comfortably ahead of the 3.5% rate of the pace of price growth – inflation.

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The curb to consumer spending power will be welcomed by the Bank of England as its rate-setters continue to fret that strong wage growth represents an inflation risk ahead.

The ONS figures did little to boost financial market expectations of a further rate cut next month.

LSEG data showed 90% of market participants believed there would be no no change – with just one further cut this year being fully priced in.

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