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With the 2022 regular season wrapping up in seven days, for the most part, all eyes are on the playoffs.

The 18 clubs who are done following their final game are looking towards the offseason; however, six wild-card contenders continue to battle for the final five spots, while the top seven teams in the majors have all secured a postseason berth already.

There is still some postseason positioning to be decided for those teams who have clinched, but the question that remains is: Where does your favorite squad stand heading into October?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen this year and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Joon Lee to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 24 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings

Record: 107-48

Previous ranking: 1

The Dodgers are navigating through one of the most impressive runs in baseball history, as the first team to win at least 106 games in three consecutive full seasons. The Dodgers won 106 in 2019, 106 in 2021 and a franchise-record 107 — and counting — in 2022. In 2020, which was shortened to 60 games because of the COVID-19 pandemic, they navigated a 116-win pace during the regular season and then finally won it all.

Over these last four years, they’ve won at least 29 more regular-season games than anybody else. Now they need to validate this run with a traditional championship. And in order to do so, they need to get their pitching staff in order. A lot of uncertainties remain there as October approaches. — Gonzalez


Record: 102-54

Previous ranking: 2

Barring a severe, late-season slump, Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is going to join a prestigious club. He is likely to become just the fourth hitter in Houston franchise history to reach a .300 batting average, a .400 on-base percentage and a .600 slugging percentage in the same season. Lance Berkman (2001 and 2006) and Jeff Bagwell (1994 and 2000) both did it twice, while Moises Alou accomplished the feat in 2000.

Alvarez may be as close to a weakness-free hitter as there currently is in baseball, if only because of his remarkable consistency. Four seasons into his career, consider some of Alvarez’s splits (through Tuesday): .982 OPS at home .962 on the road; .984 against righties, .954 against lefties; .992 before the All-Star break, .956 after; 1.028 with the bases empty, .920 with runners on base. Simply put, Alvarez is great at pretty much everything when a bat is in his hands. — Doolittle


Record: 98-58

Previous ranking: 3

Yes, that line you saw from Jacob deGrom against the A’s on Saturday was correct: 4 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 1 HR. It was his worst Game Score since May 17, 2019, when the Marlins scored seven runs off him in five innings. OK, it happens to the best of them, but deGrom has now allowed 11 runs over his past three starts — and the other two games came against the Cubs and Pirates (although he did fan 23 across those two starts). His next start will be in the big showdown series against the Braves on Saturday. Time for the ace to deliver. — Schoenfield


Record: 97-59

Previous ranking: 4

Spencer Strider‘s oblique injury is obviously a huge blow, and while the Braves aren’t yet ruling him out of the postseason, he’s done for the regular season. Finishing 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 202 strikeouts in just 131⅔ innings, Strider becomes the first Braves rookie in the modern era to record 200 strikeouts. The Braves still have Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton to headline the playoff rotation, but rookie Bryce Elder may now be the No. 4 starter if Strider can’t go. He just tossed a six-hit shutout … against the Nationals. His excellent start before that one was also against the Nationals. His two starts before those two: against the Marlins. He hasn’t exactly been tested. — Schoenfield


Record: 96-59

Previous ranking: 5

The Yankees turned things around after their massive struggles during August. Aaron Judge has consistently hit homer after homer in tying Roger Maris’ franchise record of 61. The team has also seen a strong performance from Gleyber Torres, who has slashed .333/.404/.598 at the plate this month. On the mound, New York continues to try to figure out its bullpen situation ahead of the postseason with Aroldis Chapman‘s season-long struggles and the return of Zack Britton from the injured list. — Lee


Record: 90-66

Previous ranking: 6

St. Louis locked up another division title, dominating the NL Central in the second half of the season. Albert Pujols hit his 699th and 700th career home runs last Friday in back-to-back innings, continuing a trend of getting big hits when the Cardinals need them most. In game situations deemed late and close, Pujols has an OPS of over 1.100 this season with a team-leading four home runs while hitting around .321. Compare that to likely NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, who’s hitting .196 in those situations, and it’s another reason to marvel at the future Hall of Fame player. — Rogers


Record: 87-69

Previous ranking: 7

The Blue Jays continue their strong month of September, with shortstop Bo Bichette finding his swing and looking once again like the offensive spark plug the Toronto lineup needs. While one of the big questions the team faces in the postseason is pitching, young ace Alek Manoah looks like one of the best starters in the big leagues, with seven straight quality starts. He, along with Kevin Gausman, will be a focal point of the team’s pitching attack come October. — Lee


Record: 87-68

Previous ranking: 11

You may recall that all season in the power rankings commentary, we lamented how no one in the AL Central seemed able to take control of a division that was oh-so-winnable. In September, the Guardians silenced that lament. On Sept. 4, Cleveland lost to the Mariners, dropping it into a first-place tie with Minnesota. A week later, the Guardians were up by 2½ games. On Sept. 18, the lead was still just 3½ games. By Sept. 25, the lead had bulged to 10 games. Talk about getting hot at just the right time. The final margin is as yet unknown, but during the wild-card era, when the Guardians/Indians have won, they have really won. This will be the 11th first-place Cleveland team since 1995. The smallest margin of a division win has been six games (1997 and 2001). The average margin has been 13.3 games. — Doolittle


Record: 85-70

Previous ranking: 8

The Rays went 2-5 against the Astros and Blue Jays last week and scored just four runs in five losses while dealing with the loss of third baseman Yandy Diaz, who has battled shoulder soreness. The team did get a big boost from the return of Tyler Glasnow, who missed nearly 14 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Glasnow was one of the team’s best pitchers in 2021 before he went down with the injury and could be a massive boon for a team that has fought injuries all year, with Brandon Lowe and Shane Baz now out for the season, as well. — Lee


Record: 86-69

Previous ranking: 12

The Padres, hoping to secure one of two wild-card spots still up for grabs in the NL, are playing some of their best baseball of late, having won eight of their last 11. Their starting pitchers hold a major league-best 1.79 ERA during that stretch, which dates back to Sept. 16, and Juan Soto finally looks like himself again, slashing .341/.471/.585. The Padres will happily ride this formula into October, and their remaining schedule is favorable in that pursuit. The Padres only play at home from here on out; their final two regular-season series will come against the White Sox and Giants, two teams that no longer have much to play for. — Gonzalez


Record: 83-71

Previous ranking: 10

The scuffling continues as the Phillies have lost nine of their last 12 games, although they did manage to split a four-game series against the Braves over the weekend. They could use a sweep of the Nationals this weekend (four-game series) to put a little distance between them and the Brewers and secure that last wild-card spot. Fun stat of the season: J.T. Realmuto is 18-for-18 stealing bases, but that’s not even a team record for most steals without getting caught. Chase Utley holds the MLB record, going 23-for-23 with Philadelphia in 2009. — Schoenfield


Record: 84-70

Previous ranking: 9

The Mariners are limping home in their bid to end the majors’ longest playoff drought, going 3-7 on a disastrous road trip to Anaheim, Oakland and Kansas City, and then getting shut out by the Rangers in the first game of a season-ending homestand that will also see Oakland and Detroit visit Seattle.

That road trip concluded with a 13-12 loss to the Royals as the Mariners blew an 11-2 lead when the Royals scored 11 runs in the sixth inning. Some called it the worst loss in franchise history, right up there with the infamous 15-14 loss to Cleveland in 2001, when the Mariners blew a 14-2 lead — the largest lead an MLB team has ever blown and one that cost that club the all-time single-season record for wins (which it shares at 116 with the 1906 Cubs). — Schoenfield


Record: 83-72

Previous ranking: 13

Milwaukee hasn’t given in despite the odds against them to make the postseason. The Brewers’ biggest hurdle might be not having the tiebreaker against either Philadelphia or San Diego. A series win over Cincinnati over the weekend helped their chances, but their best hope might come in the final days of the season. Milwaukee plays its last two series at home against the Marlins and Diamondbacks, who are both below. 500. The Brewers are 11 games over this season against such teams. A sweep of either one would go a long way towards their playoff hopes. — Rogers


Record: 80-75

Previous ranking: 14

The Orioles impressively split a four-game series against the juggernaut Astros with strong starts from Dean Kremer — who pitched a four-hit complete game with six strikeouts — and Kyle Bradish — who went 8⅔ innings, allowing just two hits and striking out 10. Meanwhile, Adley Rutschman ranks among the top 25 players in baseball in bWAR with 5.1 in 106 games despite not playing a full season. The future looks brighter and brighter at Camden Yards by the day. — Lee


Record: 77-78

Previous ranking: 17

The Giants, on the cusp of elimination, are basically 30 games worse than they were just last season, despite navigating through the offseason in hopes of contending once again. Question is: Why?

You can point to the improbability of the 2021 team reeling off 107 wins and consider this merely a regression to the mean, sure, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Former catcher Buster Posey’s absence, for one, loomed incredibly large. There were also major steps back from Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford, both in their mid-30s. And an underperformance from a bullpen that acted as a major strength last year. And injuries that sapped this team’s ability to match up both on the mound and in the batter’s box. Now comes an offseason littered with uncertainty about this franchise’s path forward. — Gonzalez


Record: 76-79

Previous ranking: 15

Let’s just say that it feels unlikely that Tony La Russa will return as the White Sox manager next season. The team fell far short of expectations this season, he turns 78 years old next week and he didn’t finish this season because of health problems. La Russa is under contract for 2023 and he’s tight with the person who owns the ballclub, so you can never say never. Let’s just agree that it seems unlikely he’ll be back.

If that is the case, La Russa will finish his Hall of Fame managerial career with 2,897 career wins, second all-time behind Connie Mack. In terms of White Sox managers, La Russa’s 691 wins for the Pale Hose will rank third behind Jimmy Dykes (899) and Al Lopez (840). By coming out of retirement, La Russa passed John McGraw on the all-time wins list and Ozzie Guillen among White Sox managers. — Doolittle


Record: 74-81

Previous ranking: 18

As the Red Sox finish up their season, they’re preparing for an enormous offseason ahead with the contracts of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers likely to take center stage and Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, Michael Wacha, Tommy Pham and Rich Hill all headed towards free agency. The Boston front office will need to respond to a deeply unsatisfied fanbase that expected the team to make another playoff run after making it to the ALCS last season. — Lee


Record: 76-79

Previous ranking: 16

The Twins’ biggest offseason question has already been answered: Yes, Minnesota will be updating its uniforms and logos this winter. Let’s pack for spring training now! OK, the real No. 1 question is the status of shortstop Carlos Correa, who can opt out of his contract and return to the free-agent market. The Twins’ offseason plan will be determined by Correa’s decision.

However, the No. 2 question might be just as pertinent to Minnesota’s hopes of getting back to the top of the division: Can the Twins get where they want to go when their most talented player, Byron Buxton, can only be counted on for roughly half a season? After undergoing a knee procedure last week, Buxton’s season ends with 92 games … and 28 homers. Over the last two seasons, Buxton has homered at a rate of 50 per 162 games. But he’s played in just 76 games. It’s a dilemma. — Doolittle


Record: 72-84

Previous ranking: 19

Madison Bumgarner finished his up-and-down 2022 season on a strong note, firing six innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers last Wednesday. The D-backs decided to shut him down with two weeks remaining in the regular season, partly to give some of their young pitchers an opportunity down the stretch. Bumgarner, 33, finished with a 4.88 ERA and a 16% strikeout rate — second-lowest of his career — in 158⅔ innings. The D-backs have received great contributions this year from Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but they need to figure something out with Bumgarner, who’s owed $37 million over the next two years. — Gonzalez


Record: 69-86

Previous ranking: 21

Shohei Ohtani might finish second to Judge for the AL MVP, but it’s worth noting that Ohtani’s 2022 season has somehow been better than his 2021 — when he won an MVP unanimously and did a multitude of things no man had ever done. With seven games left in the Angels’ schedule, Ohtani’s 8.8 FanGraphs WAR has already surpassed last year’s total of 8.0. His .887 OPS is the eighth-highest in the majors, slightly above Austin Riley, and his 2.47 ERA is the seventh-lowest among those who have accumulated at least 150 innings, slightly above Fried.

The question, of course, is whether the Angels will keep him beyond this season. If not, he’ll be the most coveted player on the market this winter — even with only one season remaining before free agency. — Gonzalez


Record: 66-88

Previous ranking: 20

Like most teams playing the Guardians these days, Texas had a weekend collapse against them which may have solidified a fourth place finish in the AL West. Cleveland scored 20 runs in the three-game sweep, further emphasizing the Rangers’ need for pitching in 2023. Texas starters rank 25th in ERA and that’s with lefty Martin Perez having a career year. Glenn Otto and Jon Gray have had their moments but it’s been a disappointing season on the mound for Texas. It’s likely that will be the team’s offseason focus. — Rogers


Record: 69-86

Previous ranking: 23

While pitching continues to be the name of the game for the Cubs in the second half, they’ll head into the offseason looking for power to augment a young staff. They may find that power down in the minors — the organization boasts two of the biggest home run-hitting prospects this season. Lefty first baseman Matt Mervis has come out of nowhere to smash 36 home runs at three different minor-league levels while outfielder Alex Canario — a more touted player — has 35, also at three different levels. Mervis is likely to get a shot at first base in 2023; fans are hopeful he’ll be the heir apparent to former Cub Anthony Rizzo. — Rogers


Record: 64-91

Previous ranking: 24

As expected, the Marlins announced they will part ways with long-time manager Don Mattingly after the season. Hired in 2016, the only managers still with their respective teams from that season are Terry Francona in Cleveland, Scott Servais in Seattle and Brian Snitker in Atlanta. The Marlins went 79-82 that season, which would prove to be the team’s best in a full season under Mattingly. In the end, the organization’s inability to develop young hitters did him in. He had one final moment of glory Tuesday, however, getting ejected after reliever Richard Bleier was called for three balks in one plate appearance. — Schoenfield


Record: 65-90

Previous ranking: 22

The Rockies will miss the playoffs and finish with a losing record for the fourth straight year, but if you think they’re going to embark on some prolonged rebuild, think again. The Rockies, manager Bud Black told reporters recently, will try to supplement their roster in hopes of competing in the NL West — even though the Dodgers are a juggernaut, the Padres are legitimate contenders, the Giants have more resources and the Diamondbacks seem better-equipped moving forward.

“We’ll try to do things for sure,” Black said, according to The Athletic’s Nick Groke. “There’s a desire from our front office, from our owner, to acquire some players, whatever it might be, to get some pieces in here.” — Gonzalez


Record: 63-92

Previous ranking: 25

After being promoted last week to the head of the Royals’ baseball operation department, J.J. Picollo said the team is “in the very infantile stages” of talking about an extension with prized rookie shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Witt looks like he’ll be a fixture in the Royals’ infield for a long time to come, so an early extension would make a lot of sense, especially when such arrangements are becoming increasingly common with baseball’s younger stars. Still, Witt has ample room for development as a big leaguer.

The areas he should target jump out of his Statcast profile: Witt ranks in the 9th percentile by walk rate, 16th percentile in chase rate and 2nd percentile in defensive outs above average. By contrast, the raw tools are equally apparent: 92nd percentile in average exit velocity and 100th percentile in speed score. — Doolittle


Record: 60-96

Previous ranking: 26

Once again, rookie starter Nick Lodolo was impressive last week, giving up just one run on six hits in a 2-1 win over Milwaukee on Sunday. That outing continued a great finish to his first season, as he’s given up no more than three runs in any start in September. Lodolo has given up just 20 hits in 31⅓ innings this month while compiling a 2.59 ERA. His 1.24 WHIP on the season is third among qualified rookie starters in the NL. The Reds may have a solid starter in Lodolo for 2023. — Rogers


Record: 62-92

Previous ranking: 27

After possibly hinting that his 2023 status was uncertain, Miguel Cabrera quickly backtracked and told reporters that he would be back. Cabrera hit just four homers in 2022 but if he returns and enjoys a Pujols-like rejuvenation, he could move into the all-time top 20 in homers. With another 100 hits (he had 95 this season), Cabrera could move up as high as No. 16 on the hits list, passing Cal Ripken Jr.

One possible milestone that Cabrera’s four-homer season seems to remove from the table is that as the Tigers’ all-time home run king. Cabrera has homered 368 times since moving over from the Florida Marlins before the 2008 season. The Detroit franchise mark is 399, set by Hall of Famer Al Kaline, so Cabrera needs another 32. More realistic at this point is the second slot: longtime first baseman Norm Cash hit 373 homers for the Tigers. — Doolittle


Record: 59-97

Previous ranking: 28

After some early season promise of avoiding a last place finish yet again, the Pirates have reverted to the mean. Despite those team woes, outfielder Bryan Reynolds continues to produce. He had an OPS over 1.100 last week, which included a couple of home runs. For the season, Reynolds has 26 long balls, pushing his OPS over .800. It’s been a solid campaign, leading to the question: How long will he be a Pirate? Reynolds still has two more years until free agency but trade talk is bound to heat up for a switch-hitting, solid outfield defender. — Rogers


Record: 56-99

Previous ranking: 29

Oakland may have taken two of three games against Seattle last week, but the team is on its way to the first 100-loss season since 1979. Outfielder Conner Capel has been a bright spot since being claimed off of waivers from the Cardinals a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking for the city of Oakland and the Athletics to come to a deal on a new ballpark in the city, as the franchise continues to explore options outside of the Bay Area. — Lee


Record: 54-101

Previous ranking: 30

The Nationals lost their first three games of 2022 and the season only went downhill from there. The closest they got to .500 was at 0-1, 2-3, 3-4 and 6-7, but an eight-game losing streak in late April sealed their fate and set in motion what will likely end up as the second-worst season in franchise history, after the expansion Expos lost 110 games in 1969. The team MVP? Soto and Josh Bell, traded at the deadline, will end up 1-2 in WAR. Ouch. — Schoenfield

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What defines an ace in 2025? Breaking down what success looks like for today’s star pitchers

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What defines an ace in 2025? Breaking down what success looks like for today's star pitchers

Baseball fans who grew up on 20-game winners understand — sometimes with much chagrin, sometimes with more emphatic degrees of horror — that the expectations for a starting pitcher are much different in 2025 than 10 years ago, let alone 20, 30 or 40 years ago.

The complete game is all but dead — no pitcher has more than one nine-inning complete game this season. One hundred pitches is now viewed as the top limit for a pitch count, with pitchers rarely exceeding 110 — Randy Johnson had more 110-pitch outings just in 1993 than every starter combined in 2025. Pitchers get more days off between starts. And the list goes on.

Forty years ago in 1985, 20-year-old right-hander Dwight Gooden went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA while leading the National League with 16 complete games and 268 strikeouts; left-hander John Tudor went 21-8 with a 1.93 ERA, 14 complete games and 10 shutouts.

Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal are this season’s equivalents to Gooden and Tudor, the top starting pitchers in the majors, but when you dig into their numbers compared to their 1985 counterparts, the change in the modern game for pitchers is obviously apparent and raises the question: What does an ace look like in 2025?

Skenes, who’s the heavy favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award and should finish with the highest WAR for a Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher since the lively ball era began in 1920, has an MLB-best 2.03 ERA while leading the NL in strikeouts and WAR. He has had 11 scoreless outings this season — but his win-loss record is just 10-10. Skubal is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award for the second straight season with just 13 wins and may not reach 200 innings, just as he didn’t this past season.

While Tudor had 10 shutouts in one season, there have been just 12 complete game shutouts across the entire major leagues in 2025, nobody with more than one. The only pitcher with a shot to win 20 games, which was once the longstanding prerequisite to win a Cy Young Award, is Max Fried, who has 17 but might make just two more starts. And Skubal’s and Skenes’ numbers aren’t even unique from recent Cy Young winners: We’ve seen starters secure the honor with 13 wins (Robbie Ray in 2021 and Felix Hernandez in 2010), 11 (Corbin Burnes in 2021 and Jacob deGrom in 2019) and even a mere 10 (deGrom in 2018).

But even if their stat lines differ from past top hurlers, Skenes and Skubal are having great seasons within the context of how the game is played in 2025 and how pitchers are now managed. We’re not going back anytime soon to 1969, when 15 pitchers won 20 games, or 1974, when 34 pitchers threw at least 250 innings (we’ll be lucky to get two or three pitchers to reach 200 innings in 2025).

So, as the regular season winds down, we set out to find what defines a great season for an ace in 2025. How should we compare the aces of the past to those of today? And what is the measure of success for an ace in 2025 compared to years prior?

To answer these questions, we went back 50 years to compare 2025 to 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2015. My colleague Kiley McDaniel suggests that there are generally about 12 aces in any given season, so we’ll use that: the 12 aces from each of those seasons. Let’s get into it.

Note: The 12 aces for each season were selected using Baseball-Reference WAR, innings pitched, ERA and ERA+ (which adjusts for each pitcher’s league and home park run-scoring context) as the primary guidelines.


1975

Aces: Jim Palmer, Catfish Hunter, Tom Seaver, Jim Kaat, Randy Jones, Frank Tanana, Andy Messersmith, Bert Blyleven, Steve Busby, Gaylord Perry, Jerry Reuss, Vida Blue

Average ace line: 20-12, 2.69 ERA, 288 IP, 244 H, 191 SO, 80 BB, 37 GS, 19 CG, 5 SHO, 138 ERA+, 6.8 WAR

Average MLB starter: 3.80 ERA, 4.9 SO/9, 1.49 SO/BB ratio

What defined an ace in 1975: Durability … and wins.

Defining stat: Our aces completed 226 of their 439 starts (51%) and averaged 7.8 innings per start.

The 1970s were a pitching-rich decade — there were 96 20-win seasons in the decade — with starters carrying big workloads, especially early in the decade when 40-start seasons and 300 innings were routine. If you were an ace, the expectation was that you would finish the game. No pitcher exemplified this quite like Gaylord Perry: From 1970 to 1975, he averaged 321 innings per season and completed 64% of his starts.

The Cy Young winners in 1975 were Palmer (23-11, 2.09 ERA, 8.4 WAR, 323 IP) and Seaver (22-9, 2.38 ERA, 7.8 WAR, 280 IP), and like all the Cy Young winners in the 1970s — except Seaver in 1973 (when he won 19 games) and three relievers who won — they won 20 games. The Cy Young-winning starters in this decade averaged 23 wins — and often, wins were the deciding factor in the vote.

There was no shortage of aces to choose from in 1975 — among those who failed to make the cut were Nolan Ryan (missed time with an injury and had just 2.6 WAR), Steve Carlton (3.56 ERA, 2.2 WAR), Fergie Jenkins (25 wins in 1974, but a 3.93 ERA in ’75), Don Sutton (16 wins, 3.5 WAR) and Phil Niekro (15 wins, 3.20 ERA). In other words: five future Hall of Famers in their primes.


1985

Aces: Dwight Gooden, John Tudor, Bret Saberhagen, Dave Stieb, Charlie Leibrandt, Bert Blyleven, Rick Reuschel, Orel Hershiser, Fernando Valenzuela, Jack Morris, Ron Guidry, Bob Welch

Average ace line: 18-8, 2.54 ERA, 248 IP, 204 H, 67 BB, 167 SO, 33 GS, 12 CG, 4 SHO, 157 ERA+, 6.6 WAR

Average MLB starter: 3.96 ERA, 5.2 SO/9, 1.65 SO/BB ratio

What defined an ace in 1985: A great secondary pitch.

Defining stat: The 157 ERA+ was a big increase from 1975.

It’s probably not fair to compare Skenes to Gooden, since Gooden’s 1985 season ranks as one of the best pitching seasons of all time. In a normal season, Tudor would have cruised to a Cy Young Award, but he finished second to Gooden in ’85 while Saberhagen — another right-hander who was just 21 years old — won AL honors after going 20-6 with a 2.87 ERA. Thanks to Gooden and Tudor, the average ERA+ of the 1985 aces soared much higher than in 1975, but because they were pitching fewer innings, their overall value remained almost identical.

Gooden and Saberhagen had blistering fastballs, and just them and Welch probably fit the description of “fastball pitcher” — unlike many of the 1970s aces who did rely heavily on a fastball. For the most part, however, this group stands out for a notable secondary pitch as the best weapon — and even Gooden had that monster 12-to-6 curveball. Tudor and Leibrandt were lefties with great changeups. Stieb had one of the best sliders of all time and Blyleven one of the best curveballs. The young Hershiser certainly had above-average fastball velocity, but changed speeds with his sinker, cutter, curveball and changeup. Fernando had the famous screwball, Morris a forkball and Guidry a slider.

By 1985, we had started to see an increase in the power game — home runs had increased from 0.70 per game in 1975 to 0.86 in 1985. It wasn’t quite so easy to rely primarily on a great fastball with more power up and down the lineup. Case in point: The 1975 Reds, with one of the best lineups of all time, hit just 124 home runs, which would be below average by 1985 and would outrank only the Pirates in 2025. We also see the transformation from four-man to five-man rotations and the advent of the modern closer, which led to fewer innings and fewer complete games — although our aces still averaged nearly 250 innings.

The 1980s was the worst decade for Cy Young selections. Four relievers won, but even worse were the selections of Pete Vuckovich in 1982 (3.34 ERA, 2.8 WAR) and LaMarr Hoyt in 1983 (3.66 ERA, 3.7 WAR), who won only because they led their respective leagues in wins. Leaving out the relievers and the 1981 strike season, the average Cy Young winner in the 1980s won 22 games.


1995

Aces: Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, David Cone, Mike Mussina, Kenny Rogers, Dennis Martinez, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, Tom Glavine, Hideo Nomo, Kevin Brown, John Smoltz

Average ace line: 16-7, 2.99 ERA, 202 IP, 170 H, 61 BB, 166 SO, 29 GS, 5 CG, 2 SHO, 157 ERA+, 5.9 WAR

Average MLB starter: 4.53 ERA, 6.0 SO/9, 1.82 SO/BB ratio

What defined an ace in 1995: Figuring out how to survive the PED era of increased offense.

Defining stat: We start to see an increase in K’s per nine from our aces. In 1975, it was 6.0; in 1985, 6.1; in 1995, it increased to 7.4.

This was the strike-shortened 144-game season, so the aces are missing about three or four starts from a full 162-game season, which would have given us at least a couple 20-game winners (Maddux and Mussina each won 19) and a bunch more pitchers with 200 innings.

Around this time, the game’s top-level pitchers became even more dominant in comparison to the league average starter as an offensive boom arrived due to PED usage and a livelier baseball. Our group of aces in 1995 — which didn’t include Roger Clemens or a young Pedro Martinez — had an ERA 52 percentage points better than the average starter and a strikeout rate per nine that was 23 percentage points higher. Despite the high-run environment, Maddux went 19-2 with a 1.63 ERA while Johnson went 18-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 294 strikeouts in just 30 starts to win Cy Young honors.

In one sense, we were entering the era of the super pitcher: Maddux, Johnson, Clemens and Pedro all arguably rank among the 10 greatest starting pitchers of all time, dominating in a high-offense era, while Mussina, Glavine and Smoltz are Hall of Famers. In 1995, the MLB average was 4.85 runs per game — compared to 4.21 in 1975 and 4.33 in 1985 — and would climb above five runs per game in 1996, 1999 and 2000. The increased offense across the sport contributed to the decline in innings pitched, along with the continued evolution of the modern bullpen.

The average nonreliever Cy Young winner in the 1990s (skipping the shortened 1994 season) won 20 games per season, with a few still securing the honor mainly because of their win total (most famously, 27-game winner Welch in 1990 over 21-game winner Clemens, despite Clemens posting an ERA more than a run lower, 1.93 to 2.95).


2005

Aces: Roger Clemens, Dontrelle Willis, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Randy Johnson, Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, John Smoltz, Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy

Average ace line: 16-8, 2.82 ERA, 220 IP, 190 H, 46 BB, 185 SO, 32 GS, 4 CG, 2 SHO, 155 ERA+, 6.1 WAR

Average MLB starter: 4.36 ERA, 6.0 SO/9, 2.08 SO/BB ratio

What defined an ace in 2005: Striking out a lot more batters than they walked.

Defining stat: Strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 1975, our aces had a SO/BB ratio of 2.4; in 1985, 2.5; in 1995, 2.7; but in 2005, it was all the way up to 4.0.

For whatever reason, 2005 saw a minor dip in offense from surrounding seasons (the MLB average was 4.81 runs per game in 2004 and 4.86 in 2006 but 4.59 this season). Clemens had his last great season, leading the NL with a 1.87 ERA and 7.8 WAR, although with 13 wins, he finished third in the Cy Young voting behind Carpenter (21-5, 2.83 ERA, 5.8 WAR) and Willis (22-10, 2.63 ERA, 7.3 WAR). The AL Cy Young voting similarly registered wins as the priority: Santana was 16-7 with a 2.87 ERA and 7.2 WAR and should have won, but 21-game winner Bartolo Colon with a 3.48 ERA captured the honor.

Overall, our aces carried a similar workload to 1995 and remained as productive, with a high ERA+ while averaging over 6.0 WAR. The biggest difference, of course, was how the aces got there: more strikeouts and fewer walks. Halladay best symbolized this new generation of aces, who combined strikeout stuff with great control. Indeed, he made the list of aces even though he made just 19 starts in 2005 — but he went 12-4 with a 2.41 ERA and 5.5 WAR, good enough to crack the top 12. Call that season a sign of things to come, where you wouldn’t need to pitch 220 innings to be one of the most valuable starters.

The typical Cy Young winner in the 2000s still averaged 19.5 wins, with new “lows” set in 2006 when Brandon Webb won with just 16 wins and then Tim Lincecum in 2009 with 15 wins.


2015

Aces: Zack Greinke, Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Dallas Keuchel, David Price, Sonny Gray, Jacob deGrom, Madison Bumgarner, Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber, Gerrit Cole

Average ace line: 17-8, 2.56 ERA, 218 IP, 172 H, 45 BB, 225 SO, 32 GS, 3 CG, 2 SHO, 156 ERA+, 6.1 WAR

Average MLB starter: 4.10 ERA, 7.4 SO/9, 2.73 SO/BB ratio

What defined an ace in 2015: Strikeouts!

Defining stat: The strikeout rate for our aces climbed to over one per inning at 9.3 K’s per nine.

This season featured one of the best three-way Cy Young races of all time, when Greinke and Arrieta posted ERAs under 2.00 while Kershaw had a 2.13 ERA with 301 strikeouts. Greinke was 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA and 8.9 WAR, but Arrieta won after going 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and 8.3 WAR.

The increased strikeout rate is a reflection of a couple of things: We were near the beginning of the high-velocity era for pitchers, but what set apart these aces is multiple strikeout pitches to go along with their fastballs. Arrieta featured two fastballs, a slider, curveball and changeup, and Greinke had the same five-pitch repertoire. Kershaw had pinpoint control of his fastball and two unhittable off-speed pitches in his curveball and slider. King Felix had an A+ changeup and a great curveball. Kluber parlayed a cutter/slider/curveball combo into two Cy Youngs. Scherzer and deGrom had everything — overpowering fastballs, control and multiple off-speed weapons. It was a new wave of dominance that we had never seen before.

The typical Cy Young winner in the 2010s still averaged 18.8 wins. It was a very controversial selection when Hernandez won in 2010 despite going just 13-12 for a terrible Mariners team, and wins still generally remained a key factor in Cy Young voting during this decade. As late as 2016, Rick Porcello (22-6, 4.7 WAR) beat out Justin Verlander (16-9, 7.4 WAR) primarily because he won more games (Verlander actually had more first-place votes, 14 to 8). However, the tide had shifted by the time deGrom took home the honor in 2018 and 2019 despite winning just 10 and 11 games, respectively. He was clearly the best pitcher in the NL and received 29 of 30 first-place votes both years.


2025

Aces: Paul Skenes, Cristopher Sanchez, Tarik Skubal, Hunter Brown, Garrett Crochet, Nick Pivetta, Freddy Peralta, Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Webb, Max Fried

Average ace line: 13-6, 2.65 ERA, 174 IP, 137 H, 44 BB, 195 SO, 16 HR, 29 GS, 1 CG, 0 SHO, 162 ERA+, 5.4 WAR

Average MLB starter: 4.23 ERA, 8.2 SO/9, 2.77 SO/BB ratio

What defines an ace in 2025: Dominance over shorter outings.

Defining stat: Our aces have allowed no runs or one run in 171 out of 346 starts.

Those totals will climb a bit over the final days of the season, but we’re still seeing a 30-to-40-inning drop in workload from a decade prior, and thus a slight drop in overall value despite a high rate of productivity. The trade-off with fewer innings is that these aces are expected to dominate over those shorter outings, which often now last just six or seven innings. Skenes has pitched more than seven innings just three times and Skubal just twice (although, one of those was his first career complete game).

Of course, fewer innings means fewer decisions and thus fewer wins from the elite starters. The eight Cy Young winners from 2021 to 2024 averaged just 15.1 wins per season and the last 20-game Cy Young winner was Verlander in 2019.


Conclusion

The days of multiple 20-game winners vying for Cy Young honors are long gone, but I hope we’ve adjusted our thinking and can still appreciate what Skenes and Skubal — and Sanchez, Crochet, Brown and the other top starters — have accomplished in an era that is much different from 1975 or 1985.

A stat like WAR is a good way to look at this. Skenes has 7.2 WAR — higher than nine of the Cy Young starting pitchers of the 1970s and eight from the 1980s. Skenes is just as valuable in 2025 as many of the top pitchers were 40 and 50 years ago in their era.

Will his 2025 campaign go down as a legendary season like Gooden had in 1985? No, 10-10 is not the same as 24-4, and losing that aspect of baseball history no doubt stirs up much of the consternation about the “decline” of the starting pitcher. But let’s leave it at this: Dwight Gooden was a must-watch star in 1985, just as Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux were in 1995, just as Clayton Kershaw in 2015 and just as Skenes and Skubal are in 2025.

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Bottom 10: Where the teams aren’t hot, but the coaches’ seats are

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Bottom 10: Where the teams aren't hot, but the coaches' seats are

Inspirational thought of the week:

Time everlasting
Time to play B sides
Time ain’t on my side
Time I’ll never know

Burn out the day
Burn out the night
I’m not the one to tell you what’s wrong or what’s right
I’ve seen suns that were freezing and lives that were through
But I’m burning, I’m burning, I’m burning for you

— “Burnin’ For You,” Blue Oyster Cult

Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, currently located behind the huge pile of to-go containers that Jess Sims brings home from all of her “College GameDay” road eats segments, we know that where there is smoke, there is also fire. And barbecue. And ash. But hopefully no ash on the barbecue.

There are a lot of chairs being barbecued in college football these days. Hot seats that became kindling, and way too early for an October fall harvest bonfire. UCLA and Virginia Tech became the first FBS teams to part ways in-season with their head coaches, one a legendary former player and the other a legendary former assistant coach. And that has led to a hunka hunka burning “Who’s Next?” hot seat lists.

It’s enough to make one, well, take a seat, and pause to contemplate their place in this world. Might one day we wake up to find an athletic director standing in the door of our office with a pink slip? Or a booster who sells cars and thinks he’s an expert on the spread offense standing in our door with a buyout check? Or Lane Kiffin standing in the door of our kitchen with a tape measure and fabric samples? And … wait … as we sit here … did someone spill some Tabasco on this chair or did we accidentally get some muscle rub in our drawers?

With apologies to Navy O-lineman Connor Heater, Ole Miss D-tackle Jon Seaton and Steve Harvey, here are the post-Week 3 Bottom 10 rankings.

The Amherst Amblers fell to 0-3 via a 47-7 loss at Iowa, which was also Kirk Ferentz’s 206th victory, making him the winningest coach in Big Ten Conference history. It was a fitting coincidence considering that Ferentz took the Hawkeyes job while the original Minutemen were still in Massachusetts.


The Bearkats kouldn’t enjoy the bye week on their kalendar bekause they still kouldn’t kover the spread against Open Date U. Now they will kombat Texas and kuarterbacking konundrum Arch Manning.


There are currently 11 0-and-something teams in the FBS, and five reside in #MACtion. Sources have told Bottom 10 JortsCenter that those teams have all asked Ohio if they can have the contact info for West Virginia’s scheduling guy.


In related news, sources are also telling us that after firing head coach DeShaun Foster, UCLA officials attempted to see if the NCAA would let them return to the Pac-2, but their calls kept getting kicked to voicemail because the NCAA lines were tied up with all of the UCLA players ringing the transfer portal hotline.


Since their dramatic run to the College Football Playoff national title game, the Irish are 0-3. It’s not an ugly 0-3. It’s 0-3 against three ranked teams by a combined 15 points — and the two losses this season are by a combined four points. But with no conference championship at their disposal and only one ranked opponent remaining on their schedule, the Irish CFP safety net is thinner than the margin of whether Rudy was or wasn’t offside.


Virginia Tech spent the offseason having its roster raided like a rum runner boat boarded by Jack Sparrow, lost a game to the son of its legendary coach, got run over by Vandy, got blown out by supposed little brother in-state school Old Dominion and fired its head coach so early in the season that the players who were left from the first transfer portal raid could start their own transfer portal exit if they wanted. My pal Marty Smith hasn’t been this upset since I accidentally spilled Swiss Miss on his white Air Jordan Dior’s.


7. Oregon Trail State (You have died of dysentery) (0-3)

Full disclosure: I am currently writing this in a hotel room in Corvallis, where I’m working on a “College GameDay” feature about the platypus trophy that the Beavers and Ducks will play for this weekend. I am … pretty … sure … they’re … messing … wItH … THEE … hOtEl … WHYFY … 2 … kEEp … mE … frum … FY-LING … this … STorY …


I don’t want y’all to get too excited, but I am looking at the schedule and on back-to-back Tuesday nights in November, Weeks 12 and 13, Akron hosts UMess and State of Kent. That rapid clicking you heard was me checking on hotels and flights and then emailing the GameDay honchos to try to convince them to do shows from Akron with me for seven straight days. That one solitary click you heard was them hanging up on me.


The Golden Flashes in the Pan lived up to that name, constructing a NSFW 21-play, 93-yard, 12-plus-minute drive to take a 28-24 lead over the Buffalo Bulls Not Bills with 2:38 remaining … and then surrendering 76 yards on eight plays in 1:29 to lose their 24th straight FBS game, 17th straight MAC game and 11th straight conference game at home. That’s not NSFW, that’s NC-17. Shoutout to a year ago, when the Flashes’ upcoming visit to Florida State would have been the Pillow Fight of the Week.


Speaking of NC-17, have y’all peeped Florida’s schedule? It’s the scariest thing I’ve seen since that time my family visited a Florida truck stop and my daughter bought what she thought was a souvenir rubber alligator, but then a few miles down the road it bit the dog.

Waiting list: Do You Know The Way to San Jose State, Northworstern, My Hammy of Ohio, Western Not Eastern or Central Michigan, Kennesaw Mountain Landis State, No-vada, the team that barely beat No-vada, Baller State, We’re Not In Kansas State Anymore, replay reviews that make on-field refs quit.

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Dabo defends record following 1-2 start, poll exit

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Dabo defends record following 1-2 start, poll exit

Dabo Swinney defended his program, which has started 1-2, during a fiery news conference Tuesday, saying, in part, that if Clemson was tired of winning “they can send me on my way.”

The Tigers started the season ranked No. 4 with College Football Playoff hopes but fell out of the Top 25 this week after losing to Georgia Tech 24-21. They opened the year with a 17-10 home loss to LSU and trailed Troy at halftime in Week 2, also at home, before rallying to win.

“Hey, listen, if Clemson’s tired of winning, they can send me on my way,” Swinney said. “But I’m gonna go somewhere else and coach. I ain’t going to the beach. Hell, I’m 55. I’ve got a long way to go. Y’all are gonna have to deal with me for a while.”

Clemson has not been in sync on offense, with third-year starting quarterback Cade Klubnik struggling to find rhythm and consistency, and the defense is still learning to adapt to new defensive coordinator Tom Allen.

Swinney said Tuesday that he was confident his team would respond, starting Saturday against Syracuse, because that is what his program has done during hard moments. But he also had a message to critics who have questioned where Clemson goes from here after two tough losses.

“I would just say, if you don’t believe in us because we’ve lost two games down to the last play and we’re 1-2? You didn’t believe in us anyways, so it don’t matter,” Swinney said. “You weren’t all-in anyway.”

Swinney pointed out that in his 17 years as head coach at Clemson, he has had one bad season — going 6-7 in 2010. In 13 of the last 14 years, Clemson has won 10 or more games. That lone season without 10 wins came in 2023, when Clemson started 4-4 but wound up winning five straight to finish 9-4.

“All we’ve done is win,” Swinney said. “We’ve won this league eight out of the last 10 years. Is that not good? I’m just asking. Is that good? To win your league eight out of 10 years, to go to the playoffs seven out of 10 years, be in four national championships, win it twice. Yeah, we’re a little down right now. Take your shots. I’ve got a long memory. We’ll be all right. We’ll bounce back.”

Swinney pointed out all the other times Clemson has rebounded from difficult losses — including 2021, after losing to Georgia to open the season, and last season — winning the ACC title and making the 12-team CFP after losing to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.

Clemson lost to Texas in the first round of the playoff 38-24, but the bulk of its team returned for 2025, making the Tigers the heavy favorite to repeat as ACC champions. Instead, the season has not started the way anybody expected.

“If we stink because we haven’t played for the national championship since January of ’20, well, I guess we stink,” Swinney said. “But why are we held to a different standard from all these other teams out there who ain’t ever won nothing?”

Swinney has had to fight off questions about his program nearly every year since it last made the playoff in 2020.

In 2023, Swinney made similar comments about leaving Clemson after “Tyler from Spartanburg” called into his radio show and wondered why the school paid over $10 million to go 4-4.

“I work for the board of trustees, the president and the AD, and if they’re tired of me leading this program, all they got to do is let me know. I’ll go somewhere else where there is an appreciation,” Swinney said at the time. “I don’t know if it’ll be here, but it’ll be somewhere.”

On Tuesday, Swinney returned to the missed plays his team made in the two losses that could have made a difference and said he continues to have “faith in the storm.”

“We’re not perfect, and we may suck this year,” Swinney said. “We may lay a freaking egg and go 6-6. But I don’t think so. I know that’s going to disappoint a lot of people, but I don’t think so. The reason we are the best program in college football is because we’ve always battled. We’ve always responded.

“Let’s respond like we always have and let the story be written.”

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