‘That’s an annihilation’: Labour’s poll lead spikes alarmingly, increasing Tory pressure for government U-turn
You have to go back to Tony Blair’s honeymoon period after his 1997 landslide general election victory to find a Labour opinion poll lead as massive as 33 points.
All those critics of Sir Keir Starmer – mostly on the Corbynista left-wing of the party, who’ve claimed with the Tories in turmoil, Labour should be 20 points ahead – have their answer now.
Even after a successful Labour conference, the results of YouGov’s poll for The Times are stunning. “You’re joking! That’s an annihilation!” one senior Tory MP told Sky News.
Potentially, yes. One estimate suggested, on that showing in a general election, the Conservatives would be left with just 61 seats in the Commons. That’s fantasy, however. It’s a very, very crude calculation. So dream on, Labour MPs!
When the Blairs moved into Number 10 in 1997, it was the first time in 18 years Labour had been in power
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Opinion polls are a snapshot and this is just one poll and the next general election could be more than two years away.
But YouGov’s findings are damning for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. They will also bring smug smiles to supporters of Rishi Sunak, who will no doubt say privately: “Told you so.”
Chancellor urged to bring forward statement – follow live economy updates
Asked whether Mr Sunak would have made a better or worse PM than Ms Truss, 44% said better and 13% said worse. And among Tory supporters, 36% said better and 29% worse.
The Times reports support for the Tories has fallen by seven points, from 28% to 21%, amid fears the government’s plans will lead to spiralling interest rates.
And it appears it’s largely those “Red Wall” voters who handed victory to Boris Johnson in the 2019 general election who are deserting his successor, Liz Truss now.
A mini-budget, not a Budget
Some 17% of those who backed Mr Johnson in 2019 said they would vote Labour now and only 37% of 2019 Tory voters said they were planning to stick with the party, suggesting a Tory wipeout if an election were held now.
But it won’t be held now. And the veteran Conservative MP Sir Roger Gale correctly pointed out on Sky News that even if Mr Kwarteng’s “Growth Plan” was voted down in the Commons in a major backbench mutiny, the Truss government would not automatically fall.
That’s because, wisely, Mr Kwarteng insisted that despite his tax cuts, his statement last Friday was not a Budget. So the constitutional convention that a defeat on a Budget means a government falls, does not apply.
Read more:
Chancellor insists govt ‘protecting people across UK’
Liz Truss defends economic strategy despite fiscal chaos
In a big boost for the Labour leader, allies of Sir Keir will be delighted almost three times as many voters said he would make a better PM than Ms Truss. Her support has fallen 10 points in four days.
The poll, based on a survey of 1,712 voters on 28 and 29 September, was published shortly after Mr Kwarteng issued a desperate plea to Tory MPs to back him.
“I understand your concern,” he said in a letter to his backbenchers, coming after he failed to reassure many of them in a phone call earlier this week. “We are one team and need to remain focused.”
He concluded: “We need your support to do this, as the only people who win if we divide is the Labour Party.”
Well, Labour is winning at the moment. And this devastating opinion poll will trigger more demands from apoplectic Conservative MPs for a U-turn in policy.
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‘This lady’s not for turning’
But for the time being at least, Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng remain defiant. Margaret Thatcher famously said in her 1981 Tory conference speech: “U-turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning.”
Twitter commentators spotted Liz Truss appearing to recreate an outfit worn by Margaret Thatcher
This lady Prime Minister is not for turning, either, yet.
But there may come a point – if the money markets continue to plunge and interest rates soar, placing thousands of families at risk of losing their home – where a U-turn may be the only way out of the crisis for the PM.
Alarming levels
In one of her regional TV interviews, Ms Truss was challenged by an interviewer who claimed she seemed to be saying: “Crisis, what crisis?”
She replied: “I’m not saying that at all.
“I think we’re in a very serious situation.”
That’s as close as she’s likely to come to admitting she is facing a crisis. While polls are indeed just a snapshot, there’s a trend now, with Labour’s poll lead growing to alarming levels for the Conservatives.
Political parties usually get a boost in the polls from the publicity their conference brings, as Labour has spectacularly this week.
Anything less than even a modest poll recovery for the Tories after their Birmingham conference next week will plunge the morale of Conservative backbenchers to potentially perilous levels for the PM and her chancellor.
British politics is changing after a night that saw a sensational, record-breaking victory by Nigel Farage in the North West.
That’s the conclusion of a nail-biting night that delivered more drama than expected and gives strong indications – though not yet certainty – about how politics is being reshaped for a new era, which means greater political unpredictability and challenges for the main parties in highly uncomfortable ways.
The significance of this morning’s results will be argued over for years to come.
Reform beats Labour by six votes; follow Politics latest
Hours after counting began, there are two big themes for definite.
The first is that Reform UK proved they continue to evolve into a mature and potentially lethal political force.
Across the country they are now winning votes in Labour areas as well as Conservative, and they have run both parties close in a number of key contests.
They achieved vote shares of 40% or more, twice their share at the General Election. They even won a seat from the Liberal Democrats.
Read more:
Mayoral election results as they come in
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First Reform UK mayoral win
The second is that while Labour was able to deliver a number of physiologically important mayoral wins – often by the smallest of margins – they need to go up a gear to fight.
Labour’s vote declined but did not collapse and they are still able to get “their people” to the ballot box from Bristol to Tyneside.
But in the most important battle of all – the North West seat of Runcorn and Helsby – they could not, and Reform UK pulled off a stunning triumph, taking the 49th-safest Labour seat in the country.
Karen Shore, Labour’s losing candidate in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election. Pic: PA
Nigel Farage and the team had poured huge amounts of time and resource into the seat, with multiple visits and the chairman Zia Yusuf on the ground to direct operations. It paid off.
By contrast, Sir Keir Starmer did not turn up once. Number 10 will be asking itself today whether a prime ministerial visit could have been worth those six precious votes.
It is true to say that politics has become so unpredictable because neither party knew what was about to happen.
The evening started with Reform UK hinting at victory, but by 2am Labour was quietly confident. By 3am, it had turned out neither really knew, and a full recount was launched after Reform UK was four votes ahead. After the recount, Labour had lost by six.
This is the moment Reform UK proved itself a protest party for Labour voters as well as Tories.
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‘Keir is making life easy’ for Reform
Significance for Reform is immense
The significance is immense. At last year’s general election, there were over 150 seats where the Tories lost because Reform UK got more votes than the margin by which the Conservatives lost to the winner.
Now this suggests that Reform UK has the capacity to mete out the same damage to Labour and puts the two traditional parties on notice that they face a threat.
Labour has already shown itself willing to bend because of the threat of Reform UK, slashing the aid budget to pay for more military spending and slashing Whitehall with a promise of more to come.
The question is, how much further can Labour go in this direction? In some of the council by-elections there was already evidence of bleeding to the Greens – a sign that more left-leaning one-time Labour supporters are deserting the party because they think it no longer represents them.
What course does this Number 10 chart now? A slew of announcements on immigration and slashing red tape – and risk a greater schism on the left – or end up in the mushy middle and pleasing no one? The choices are unappetising.
Robert Jenrick featured in a leaked recording about a Tory ‘coalition’ with Reform UK
Then there is the challenge for the Tories.
For those hoping for a non-aggression pact on the right, today’s results suggest that Reform UK can credibly question whether they are a party of the right, given their success in Labour areas.
This is a complicating factor. Where does the logic heard in the leaked recording by Robert Jenrick – brought up by Nigel Farage this morning – take us now?
There will be those who point to UKIP’s success in the early 2010s and lack of impact in the 2015 election, and say that there is no certainty that Reform UK will fly.
Of course, there is a chance they may fade, particularly if their infighting gets worse.
But UKIP never achieved a breakthrough on the left like Reform UK has done to date, and its impact may never actually be in the seats that it wins.
Arguably in that early 2010 period, Farage and UKIP left an even bigger legacy without ever holding power: a Brexit referendum which he went on to win.
There are now lots of paths for what Farage has started to change Britain. We do not know where this ends.
UK
Comedian and actor Russell Brand arrives at Westminster Magistrates’ Court after being charged with rape and sexual assault
Russell Brand has arrived at Westminster Magistrates’ Court, charged with sexual offences including rape.
The 49-year-old comedian, actor and author – who has most recently been based in the US – was charged by post last month with one count of rape, one count of indecent assault, one count of oral rape and two counts of sexual assault in connection with incidents involving four separate women between 1999 and 2005.
The allegations were first made in a joint investigation by The Sunday Times, The Times and Channel 4 Dispatches in September 2023.
Russell Brand arriving at Westminster Magistrates’ Court.
Pic: PA
The star, who is over 6ft tall, wore a black shirt which was unbuttoned to his mid-chest, black jeans and sunglasses.
He slowly made his way into the court’s main entrance, surrounded by a scrum of journalists and photographers. Remaining composed and looking around as he walked, he didn’t speak or respond to any of the questions shouted at him as he went.
In a video posted on X after he was charged, Brand said: “I am now going to have the opportunity to defend these charges in court, and I’m incredibly grateful for that.”
Pic: Reuters
Pic: Reuters
In a video referencing the court case posted on social media on Thursday, he said he welcomed the opportunity to prove his innocence and was “going to [his] country right now”.
The comedian has denied the accusations and said he has “never engaged in non-consensual activity”.
Brand surrounded by media. Pic: Reuters
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Six mayors are being elected in England, with most of the mayoralties last contested in 2021.
These include four combined authority mayors , otherwise known as metro mayors, as well as two city mayors.
Two of the mayors will take up new positions in the Hull and East Yorkshire, and Greater Lincolnshire combined authorities. The other mayoralties were all last contested in 2021.
Metro mayors
• Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
• Greater Lincolnshire (REFORM GAIN)
• Hull and East Yorkshire
• West of England (LABOUR HOLD)
City mayors
• Doncaster (LABOUR HOLD)
• North Tyneside (LABOUR HOLD)
All of these mayoralties will be elected under a first-past-the-post electoral system, which is also used for Westminster parliamentary elections.
See below for more detailed breakdowns of results for each race.
Metro mayors
There are four metro mayors being elected in combined authorities. These mayors are elected by voters from several different areas and counting will take place at local council level. Tables will be updated as each local area reports its result.
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
First established in 2017, the combined authority covers six areas. These are Peterborough, Fenland, Huntingdonshire, East Cambridgeshire, South Cambridgeshire, and Cambridge local council areas.
Labour won the mayoralty from the Conservatives when it was last contested in 2021.
Greater Lincolnshire
Reform’s Andrea Jenkyns has won the race to be Greater Lincolnshire’s first mayor, with 104,133 votes to the Conservative candidate’s 64,585.
The combined authority covers nine areas. These are North Lincolnshire, North East Lincolnshire, Boston, Lincoln, East Lindsey, West Lindsey, North Kesteven, South Kesteven, and South Holland local council areas.
Hull and East Yorkshire
This is a new mayoralty, being elected for the first time in 2025.
The combined authority area covers both Hull City and East Riding of Yorkshire local council areas.
West of England
Labour have avoided losing the West of England mayoralty to Reform, but their margin has been cut in half to just under 6,000 votes.
Labour won the mayoralty from the Conservatives when it was last contested in 2021 by a margin of 12,019 votes.
The combined authority covers three areas: Bristol City, South Gloucestershire, and Bath and North East Somerset local council areas. The authority was established in 2017.
City mayors
There are two city mayors being elected, one for Doncaster and one for North Tyneside.
Labour’s Ros Jones, who has been the Mayor of Doncaster since 2013, has been re-elected, but came just 698 votes ahead of the Reform candidate.
Labour have managed to hold onto the mayoralty of North Tyneside with an even thinner majority of just 444 votes, with Reform coming in second place.
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