You have to go back to Tony Blair’s honeymoon period after his 1997 landslide general election victory to find a Labour opinion poll lead as massive as 33 points.
All those critics of Sir Keir Starmer – mostly on the Corbynista left-wing of the party, who’ve claimed with the Tories in turmoil, Labour should be 20 points ahead – have their answer now.
Even after a successful Labour conference, the results of YouGov’s poll for The Times are stunning. “You’re joking! That’s an annihilation!” one senior Tory MP told Sky News.
Potentially, yes. One estimate suggested, on that showing in a general election, the Conservatives would be left with just 61 seats in the Commons. That’s fantasy, however. It’s a very, very crude calculation. So dream on, Labour MPs!
Image: When the Blairs moved into Number 10 in 1997, it was the first time in 18 years Labour had been in power
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Opinion polls are a snapshot and this is just one poll and the next general election could be more than two years away.
But YouGov’s findings are damning for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. They will also bring smug smiles to supporters of Rishi Sunak, who will no doubt say privately: “Told you so.”
Asked whether Mr Sunak would have made a better or worse PM than Ms Truss, 44% said better and 13% said worse. And among Tory supporters, 36% said better and 29% worse.
The Times reports support for the Tories has fallen by seven points, from 28% to 21%, amid fears the government’s plans will lead to spiralling interest rates.
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And it appears it’s largely those “Red Wall” voters who handed victory to Boris Johnson in the 2019 general election who are deserting his successor, Liz Truss now.
A mini-budget, not a Budget
Some 17% of those who backed Mr Johnson in 2019 said they would vote Labour now and only 37% of 2019 Tory voters said they were planning to stick with the party, suggesting a Tory wipeout if an election were held now.
But it won’t be held now. And the veteran Conservative MP Sir Roger Gale correctly pointed out on Sky News that even if Mr Kwarteng’s “Growth Plan” was voted down in the Commons in a major backbench mutiny, the Truss government would not automatically fall.
That’s because, wisely, Mr Kwarteng insisted that despite his tax cuts, his statement last Friday was not a Budget. So the constitutional convention that a defeat on a Budget means a government falls, does not apply.
In a big boost for the Labour leader, allies of Sir Keir will be delighted almost three times as many voters said he would make a better PM than Ms Truss. Her support has fallen 10 points in four days.
The poll, based on a survey of 1,712 voters on 28 and 29 September, was published shortly after Mr Kwarteng issued a desperate plea to Tory MPs to back him.
“I understand your concern,” he said in a letter to his backbenchers, coming after he failed to reassure many of them in a phone call earlier this week. “We are one team and need to remain focused.”
He concluded: “We need your support to do this, as the only people who win if we divide is the Labour Party.”
Well, Labour is winning at the moment. And this devastating opinion poll will trigger more demands from apoplectic Conservative MPs for a U-turn in policy.
But for the time being at least, Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng remain defiant. Margaret Thatcher famously said in her 1981 Tory conference speech: “U-turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning.”
Image: Twitter commentators spotted Liz Truss appearing to recreate an outfit worn by Margaret Thatcher
This lady Prime Minister is not for turning, either, yet.
But there may come a point – if the money markets continue to plunge and interest rates soar, placing thousands of families at risk of losing their home – where a U-turn may be the only way out of the crisis for the PM.
Alarming levels
In one of her regional TV interviews, Ms Truss was challenged by an interviewer who claimed she seemed to be saying: “Crisis, what crisis?”
She replied: “I’m not saying that at all.
“I think we’re in a very serious situation.”
That’s as close as she’s likely to come to admitting she is facing a crisis. While polls are indeed just a snapshot, there’s a trend now, with Labour’s poll lead growing to alarming levels for the Conservatives.
Political parties usually get a boost in the polls from the publicity their conference brings, as Labour has spectacularly this week.
Anything less than even a modest poll recovery for the Tories after their Birmingham conference next week will plunge the morale of Conservative backbenchers to potentially perilous levels for the PM and her chancellor.
A teenager suddenly becomes violent, his anger towards women fuelled by online influencers, while his parents struggle to process what their son is capable of.
Does this sound familiar?
It’s the story of the hit drama Adolescence – but for Jess and Rob, it’s their life.
Their 14-year-old son Harry’s violence has escalated so rapidly he’s had to be taken into care. We’ve changed all their names to protect their identities.
Until the age of 12, Harry’s parents say he was a “wonderful” son. But they saw a change in his personality, which they believe was sparked by an incident when he was hit by a girl. Soon, he developed an online interest in masculine power and control.
Image: Harry’s personality changed after he was assaulted (this image shows an actor in a Sky News reconstruction)
“Harry became obsessed with being strong, and I think he developed a difficulty around certain female people because of the assault,” Jess says.
“He had to be in charge… in every setting,” Rob adds.
Then one night, he punched his mother, Jess. His parents called the police in the hope it would shock him out of doing it again. But, as time went on, the violence escalated.
“We probably must have called the police over 100 times,” Rob says.
One attack was so serious, Jess ended up in hospital. The violence spilled outside the home too as Harry assaulted neighbours and friends.
Then he threatened to stab a teacher.
“Every time we think it can’t get any worse, something else happens and it does get worse,” Rob says. “Unfortunately, him getting hold of a knife is quite likely to happen.”
They say Adolescence, which stars Stephen Graham, Ashley Walters and Owen Cooper, touched a nerve.
Image: Jess and Rob say they called the police 100 times (this image shows actors in a Sky News reconstruction)
“My worst fear is that he’s going to end up killing one of us,” says Jess. “If not us, then somebody else…”
It’s a shocking thought for any parent to have. As well as contacting police, the family have tried many times to get help from social services and the NHS for Harry’s deteriorating mental health.
“We’ve been told that we’re using too many resources and accessing too many services,” Rob says. “We tried for 18 months to get him more intensive therapeutic help. At every turn it was ‘no, no, no’.”
They have found help with an organisation called PEGS that supports parents who are victims of their own children’s violence.
Image: PEGS founder Michelle John says many families struggle to have their concerns taken seriously
Last year it was contacted by over 3,500 families, a 70% increase on 2023. Founder Michelle John says many families struggle to have their concerns taken seriously.
“What we’re hearing time and time again is that referrals are not being picked up because thresholds aren’t being met and perhaps the parent or caregiver isn’t a risk to the child,” she says. “Families are falling through gaps.”
In some parts of the country, local organisations are attempting to fill those gaps. Bright Star Boxing Academy in Shropshire has children referred by schools, social workers and even the police.
Joe Lockley, who runs the academy, says the problem is services that deal with youth violence are “inundated”.
“The biggest cause of the violent behaviour is mental health,” he says. “They lack that sense of belonging and control, and it’s quite easy to gain that from the wrong crowd and getting involved in violence.
“Social media is having a huge impact, especially around that young person’s identity.”
Image: Ethan at the Bright Star Boxing Academy
Ethan, 18, agrees. He joined the academy aged 14. By then he had already been arrested several times for getting into fights.
He believes bullying sparked anxiety and depression. “Someone could look at me, I’d be angry,” he says.
“Social media – that’s definitely a massive part. You’ve got so many people that are living this material life. They’ve got loads of money.
“My main thing was seeing people with amazing bodies – I felt I couldn’t reach that point and it made me self-conscious, which would add on to the anger which then turned to hatred towards other people.”
Image: Ethan says boxing has helped him turn his life around
Without the support of the boxing academy, he believes, he wouldn’t have been able to turn his life around.
“I would either be in prison or I would have done something a lot worse to myself,” he says.
“It’s just this massive mess in your head where you’ve got a million thoughts at once – you don’t know what to think or how to even speak sometimes,” he adds.
“All we need is someone that’s got the time for us… and the understanding that it’s a war in our heads.”
A government spokesperson told Sky News: “We have seen too many preventable tragedies caused by the failings of mental health services, and it’s unacceptable that young people have not been getting the care and treatment they need to keep them, their families and the wider public safe.
“We are working to ensure children and their families get that help. We are investing over £50m to fund specialist support in schools, launching a Young Futures hub in every community, and providing access to a specialist mental health professional in every school in England.”
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK
A plastic surgeon has been found guilty of the attempted murder of a fellow doctor who he stabbed after a failed attempt to set his house on fire.
Peter Brooks had cycled to the home of Graeme Perks in Halam, near Southwell, Nottinghamshire, while wearing camouflage gear and armed with a crowbar, petrol, matches and a knife in the early hours of 14 January 2021.
The 61-year-old then doused the ground floor of the property with petrol before stabbing fellow plastic surgeon Mr Perks because he wanted him “out of the way”, his trial at Loughborough Courthouse heard.
The victim’s wife and children were sleeping at the time of the attack, the jury was told.
Mr Perks, a consultant plastic surgeon, had provided evidence in disciplinary proceedings against Brooks, who faced potentially losing his job with Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, the jury was told.
Brooks was “voluntarily absent” from his month-long trial because he was on hunger strike and said he would “rather be dead than incarcerated”, it can now be reported.
He also sacked his lawyers before the trial and was unrepresented in the case.
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Image: Graeme Perks is fighting for his life in hospital. Pic: BAPRAS
When opening the prosecution’s case, Tracy Ayling KC had told the jury it was “clear that the defendant hated Graeme Perks” and wanted him “out of the way”.
Mr Perks, who was 65 at the time, had retired the month before the attack and suffered “extremely life-threatening” injuries to his liver, intestines and pancreas, and was given a 95% chance of death, the court was told.
He had woken up on the night of the attack when Brooks smashed through his conservatory, the jury heard.
Image: The camouflage suit worn by Peter Brooks during the attack. Pic Nottinghamshire Police
Mr Perks then went downstairs where his feet “felt a bit damp” from the petrol, which Brooks had also thrown against the wall next to the stairs, before he felt a “blow to his body”, the court was told.
Brooks was later found asleep on a garden bench later that morning when he was taken to hospital for injuries to his hand, and was arrested.
His blood was found on a door at the scene of the attack.
Brooks has been convicted of two counts of attempted murder, attempted arson with intent to endanger life, and possession of a knife in a public place.
Jurors deliberated for more than 12 hours before finding Brooks guilty of all the charges against him.
Image: Graeme Perks leaves court in Loughborough after giving evidence.
Pic: PA
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
A two-phase statutory public inquiry into the Southport murders has been formally launched.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the first phase would look at the circumstances around Axel Rudakubana’s attack on a Taylor Swift-themed dance class last summer.
It will focus on issues around policing, the criminal justice system and the multiple agencies involved with the attacker who killed three girls – seven-year-old Elsie Stancombe, six-year-old Bebe King and Alice da Silva Aguiar, nine.
It follows the revelation Rudakubana had been referred to the government’s Prevent scheme on three occasions, with the cases being closed each time.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.