You have to go back to Tony Blair’s honeymoon period after his 1997 landslide general election victory to find a Labour opinion poll lead as massive as 33 points.
All those critics of Sir Keir Starmer – mostly on the Corbynista left-wing of the party, who’ve claimed with the Tories in turmoil, Labour should be 20 points ahead – have their answer now.
Even after a successful Labour conference, the results of YouGov’s poll for The Times are stunning. “You’re joking! That’s an annihilation!” one senior Tory MP told Sky News.
Potentially, yes. One estimate suggested, on that showing in a general election, the Conservatives would be left with just 61 seats in the Commons. That’s fantasy, however. It’s a very, very crude calculation. So dream on, Labour MPs!
Image: When the Blairs moved into Number 10 in 1997, it was the first time in 18 years Labour had been in power
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Opinion polls are a snapshot and this is just one poll and the next general election could be more than two years away.
But YouGov’s findings are damning for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. They will also bring smug smiles to supporters of Rishi Sunak, who will no doubt say privately: “Told you so.”
Asked whether Mr Sunak would have made a better or worse PM than Ms Truss, 44% said better and 13% said worse. And among Tory supporters, 36% said better and 29% worse.
The Times reports support for the Tories has fallen by seven points, from 28% to 21%, amid fears the government’s plans will lead to spiralling interest rates.
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And it appears it’s largely those “Red Wall” voters who handed victory to Boris Johnson in the 2019 general election who are deserting his successor, Liz Truss now.
A mini-budget, not a Budget
Some 17% of those who backed Mr Johnson in 2019 said they would vote Labour now and only 37% of 2019 Tory voters said they were planning to stick with the party, suggesting a Tory wipeout if an election were held now.
But it won’t be held now. And the veteran Conservative MP Sir Roger Gale correctly pointed out on Sky News that even if Mr Kwarteng’s “Growth Plan” was voted down in the Commons in a major backbench mutiny, the Truss government would not automatically fall.
That’s because, wisely, Mr Kwarteng insisted that despite his tax cuts, his statement last Friday was not a Budget. So the constitutional convention that a defeat on a Budget means a government falls, does not apply.
In a big boost for the Labour leader, allies of Sir Keir will be delighted almost three times as many voters said he would make a better PM than Ms Truss. Her support has fallen 10 points in four days.
The poll, based on a survey of 1,712 voters on 28 and 29 September, was published shortly after Mr Kwarteng issued a desperate plea to Tory MPs to back him.
“I understand your concern,” he said in a letter to his backbenchers, coming after he failed to reassure many of them in a phone call earlier this week. “We are one team and need to remain focused.”
He concluded: “We need your support to do this, as the only people who win if we divide is the Labour Party.”
Well, Labour is winning at the moment. And this devastating opinion poll will trigger more demands from apoplectic Conservative MPs for a U-turn in policy.
But for the time being at least, Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng remain defiant. Margaret Thatcher famously said in her 1981 Tory conference speech: “U-turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning.”
Image: Twitter commentators spotted Liz Truss appearing to recreate an outfit worn by Margaret Thatcher
This lady Prime Minister is not for turning, either, yet.
But there may come a point – if the money markets continue to plunge and interest rates soar, placing thousands of families at risk of losing their home – where a U-turn may be the only way out of the crisis for the PM.
Alarming levels
In one of her regional TV interviews, Ms Truss was challenged by an interviewer who claimed she seemed to be saying: “Crisis, what crisis?”
She replied: “I’m not saying that at all.
“I think we’re in a very serious situation.”
That’s as close as she’s likely to come to admitting she is facing a crisis. While polls are indeed just a snapshot, there’s a trend now, with Labour’s poll lead growing to alarming levels for the Conservatives.
Political parties usually get a boost in the polls from the publicity their conference brings, as Labour has spectacularly this week.
Anything less than even a modest poll recovery for the Tories after their Birmingham conference next week will plunge the morale of Conservative backbenchers to potentially perilous levels for the PM and her chancellor.
A Land Rover was spotted leaving Royal Lodge – the home of Andrew Mountbatten Windsor – on Saturday morning, as more US politicians call for him to testify before a congressional committee.
Emails released on Friday in unsealed court documents shed new light on Andrew’s correspondence with Epstein.
Months after the paedophile financier was released from prison in 2009 for prostituting minors, Andrew wrote that it would be “good to catch up in person”.
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3:07
Will Andrew have to give evidence on Epstein?
The pair were pictured together in New York’s Central Park in December 2010, in a meeting Andrew later claimed was to end their friendship.
In Congress, the House Oversight Committee is investigating the Epstein affair, and several of its members have invited Andrew to come and give evidence, presenting it as an opportunity to clear his name.
Meanwhile, Virginia Giuffre’s family have called for Andrew to be “investigated” over her claims that – as a teenager – she had sex with Andrew on three occasions after being trafficked by Epstein and Maxwell.
Andrew has always denied the claims. Ms Giuffre sued in 2021 and the case was settled outside of court for a sum believed to have been around £12m.
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Virginia Guiffre’s family sends message to King
Andrew set for six-figure sum
Andrew could be in line for a six-figure payout and an annual payment as part of his “relocation settlement” after being forced out of the Royal Lodge, the Guardian reported.
One option includes an initial six-figure sum followed by an annual payment, which would be paid from the King’s private funds, and is thought to be several times his £20k-a-year navy pension, sources told the newspaper.
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He will move from Windsor to private accommodation in Sandringham, Norfolk. But on Saturday, people in Sandringham had mixed views about the move.
One man told Sky News he would be unwelcome: “This is a lovely, peaceful area. His reputation now is tarnished, and, I don’t think it’s right.
“This is where the royals come for Christmas… and come throughout the year. And, I don’t think people local really want to see him here.”
But another man was more sympathetic: “He hasn’t been found guilty of anything in my view. So and people forget that he was a war hero in the Falklands. That’s all gone now, isn’t it? Nobody’s thinking that he’s done any good.”
Public supports Charles, poll shows
A poll has revealed the public supports the King’s decision to strip Andrew of his titles and remove him from the Royal Lodge.
Of the 4,739 people surveyed by YouGov, 79% said it was “the right decision” to “strip Andrew Mountbatten Windsor (formerly Prince Andrew) of his prince title”.
But when asked about the speed of King’s response to the Andrew-Epstein revelations, 58% of respondents said the monarch moved “too slowly”.
Police provide update
The Metropolitan Police has given Sky News an update on allegations that Andrew asked a royal close protection officer to “dig up dirt” on Virginia Giuffre in 2011.
On Saturday, the Met said: “Following recent media reporting on the actions of officers in relation to this matter, we are considering whether any further assessment or review is necessary.”
Meanwhile, the police watchdog, the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC), issued a statement regarding allegations that Andrew’s royal close protection officers had obstructed lawyers serving a lawsuit from Virginia Giuffre in 2021.
The IOPC said: “We have not received any referrals in relation to this matter at this time.”
Graham Smith, from the anti-monarchy group Republic, told Sky News: “The problem that the royals have is that there’s going to be more information coming out, more scandals, more accusations and more emails.
“The idea that essentially… he’s [Andrew] told to live in a very large house, given a half million pound stipend, and told to use his own name, is any kind of punishment, is absurd in most people’s eyes.”
In the next few days, the King is expected to submit the royal warrant, affecting the dukedom, and letters patent, which will formally remove Andrew’s entitlement to use the title prince and HRH style.
A few years ago, another resident started a petition to change the name of the road, and somebody covered up part of the street sign.
“I think we should change it,” Shirley told us, “but don’t ask me what to.”
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Image: Shirley is one of the residents calling for the street to be renamed
After a few minutes weighing up the options, she settled on Prince George Drive.
“At least that looks to the future,” she added.
Linda Boden has lived on the road even longer – she and husband Phil moved here after getting married 45 years ago.
“We have actually had the conversation this morning, that the name of this road will get changed,” Linda said.
Phil told us he wasn’t bothered about the name. “It’s just a name, it’s not the man… I can’t tell you what I think [about him] without swearing you know.”
Image: A bird’s eye view of Prince Andrew Drive
Cheryl, who lives nearby, told us what really mattered to her were the victims of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal – particularly the late Virginia Giuffre.
“That poor girl needs justice,” she said. “It is ridiculous it has gone on this long to be perfectly honest. That poor family are still living with it.”
I asked where her sympathies lay within this long-running royal scandal and Julie was unequivocal.
“With anybody who has been sexually exploited,” she said bluntly.
Julie believes Princess Anne Drive would be a better name for her neighbours’ road.
“She’s one of the better ones,” she added.
Image: Julie lives on the nearby Queen Elizabeth Way and suggests a renaming that would stick to the royal theme
Changing the road name would be a logistical headache for local authorities and residents, with some telling us it did not bother them and they would not fancy the extra paperwork to amend things such as household bills and driving licences.
But Postman Gary told us every time he’s making deliveries on Prince Andrew Drive, he feels for the residents.
“We have a little giggle because we know they don’t want it named that anymore and I wouldn’t either if I lived here. It’s probably time it changed.”
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‘Huge’ part of royal statement you might have missed
We did not find anyone on Prince Andrew Drive who disagreed with the King’s decision to remove his titles and oust him from his home in Windsor.
The monarchy needs to retain the support of the public across the UK – that’s one of the reasons the King has taken such decisive action at this point in the scandal.
A former sergeant major has been jailed for six months for sexually assaulting a teenage soldier, who later took her own life after being bombarded with messages by another senior colleague.
Michael Webber, who was a 39-year-old Battery Sergeant Major at the time, previously pleaded guilty to one count of sexual assault. He was sentenced at Bulford Court Martial Centre in Salisbury on Friday.
He had assaulted 19-year-old Royal Artillery Gunner Jaysley Beck, from Cumbria, at a work social event in July 2021.
Gunner Beck, who had joined the Army at 16, said that Webber had “made a pass” at her, put his hand between her legs and “pinned her down” while trying to kiss her.
Image: Jaysley Beck and her mother Leighann McCready. Pic: Family handout/PA
She pushed him away and spent the night locked in her car before making a complaint to her superiors in the morning.
Webber was given a minor sanction, involving him being interviewed and writing Gunner Beck a letter of apology, but the incident was not reported to police.
An inquest into her death heard she was later bombarded with messages by bombardier Ryan Mason, another senior colleague, who has since left the army, who expressed his love for her.
Image: Jaysley Beck at her passing out parade. Pic: Centre for Military Justice/PA
The 19-year-old’s body was found in her room at Larkhill barracks, Wiltshire, on 15 December, 2021. An inquest ruled that her death was a suicide.
During the inquest, coroner Nicholas Rheinberg ruled that “on the balance of probabilities” the Army’s failure to take appropriate action “more than minimally” contributed to her death.
An army report published in October 2023 also described Gunner Beck being exposed to “an intense period of unwelcome behaviour”, and said it was “almost certain this was a causal factor” in her death.
Wiltshire Police investigated a complaint of harassment submitted by Gunner Beck’s family after her death, relating to Mr Mason’s behaviour, but found the evidence did not support a criminal harassment case.
Image: Gunner Beck was found dead at Larkhill Camp in Wiltshire in December 2021. Pic: Family handout/PA
Gunner Beck’s mother Leighann McCready said outside the court after Webber’s sentencing: “No sentence will ever be enough.
“While he serves his time, it’s us who will live with a life sentence for what he did. And now the army failed to protect her afterwards.”
Ms McCready said her daughter “did everything right, but was failed by the system that was meant to support and protect her”.
“She followed the rules, but those responsible didn’t follow as they failed to act. Failed to report and failed to follow up,” she added.
Ms McCready said she will continue fighting for “real change” in the British Army after Gunner Beck’s death: “Not hollow promises or recycled words that have already failed our daughter and continue to fail others.
“Real action means giving soldiers somewhere truly independent to report serious complaints without fear or favour.
“We cannot bring our daughter back. But I will keep fighting to make sure her life leads to change.”
Minister for veterans and people Louise Sandher-Jones said the sentencing of Webber was an “important step on the journey to justice”.
She said: “We are honouring Jaysley’s legacy by bringing about crucial reform, to provide a place where people are proud to work and have faith in the service justice system.
“The Army has accepted the failings identified by the service inquiry in full and has also responded to the recommendations to improve service life across its culture, policies and practices.”
Major General Jon Swift, assistant chief of the general staff, said: “We will always be profoundly sorry for the failings that were identified at Jaysley’s inquest in February.”
He said the Army acknowledges that Webber’s sentencing “has come too late for their beloved daughter”, adding: “We are sorry we didn’t listen to Jaysley when she first reported her assault. We are determined to make sure the same mistakes don’t happen again.”
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.