‘That’s an annihilation’: Labour’s poll lead spikes alarmingly, increasing Tory pressure for government U-turn
You have to go back to Tony Blair’s honeymoon period after his 1997 landslide general election victory to find a Labour opinion poll lead as massive as 33 points.
All those critics of Sir Keir Starmer – mostly on the Corbynista left-wing of the party, who’ve claimed with the Tories in turmoil, Labour should be 20 points ahead – have their answer now.
Even after a successful Labour conference, the results of YouGov’s poll for The Times are stunning. “You’re joking! That’s an annihilation!” one senior Tory MP told Sky News.
Potentially, yes. One estimate suggested, on that showing in a general election, the Conservatives would be left with just 61 seats in the Commons. That’s fantasy, however. It’s a very, very crude calculation. So dream on, Labour MPs!
When the Blairs moved into Number 10 in 1997, it was the first time in 18 years Labour had been in power
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Opinion polls are a snapshot and this is just one poll and the next general election could be more than two years away.
But YouGov’s findings are damning for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. They will also bring smug smiles to supporters of Rishi Sunak, who will no doubt say privately: “Told you so.”
Chancellor urged to bring forward statement – follow live economy updates
Asked whether Mr Sunak would have made a better or worse PM than Ms Truss, 44% said better and 13% said worse. And among Tory supporters, 36% said better and 29% worse.
The Times reports support for the Tories has fallen by seven points, from 28% to 21%, amid fears the government’s plans will lead to spiralling interest rates.
And it appears it’s largely those “Red Wall” voters who handed victory to Boris Johnson in the 2019 general election who are deserting his successor, Liz Truss now.
A mini-budget, not a Budget
Some 17% of those who backed Mr Johnson in 2019 said they would vote Labour now and only 37% of 2019 Tory voters said they were planning to stick with the party, suggesting a Tory wipeout if an election were held now.
But it won’t be held now. And the veteran Conservative MP Sir Roger Gale correctly pointed out on Sky News that even if Mr Kwarteng’s “Growth Plan” was voted down in the Commons in a major backbench mutiny, the Truss government would not automatically fall.
That’s because, wisely, Mr Kwarteng insisted that despite his tax cuts, his statement last Friday was not a Budget. So the constitutional convention that a defeat on a Budget means a government falls, does not apply.
Read more:
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In a big boost for the Labour leader, allies of Sir Keir will be delighted almost three times as many voters said he would make a better PM than Ms Truss. Her support has fallen 10 points in four days.
The poll, based on a survey of 1,712 voters on 28 and 29 September, was published shortly after Mr Kwarteng issued a desperate plea to Tory MPs to back him.
“I understand your concern,” he said in a letter to his backbenchers, coming after he failed to reassure many of them in a phone call earlier this week. “We are one team and need to remain focused.”
He concluded: “We need your support to do this, as the only people who win if we divide is the Labour Party.”
Well, Labour is winning at the moment. And this devastating opinion poll will trigger more demands from apoplectic Conservative MPs for a U-turn in policy.
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‘This lady’s not for turning’
But for the time being at least, Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng remain defiant. Margaret Thatcher famously said in her 1981 Tory conference speech: “U-turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning.”
Twitter commentators spotted Liz Truss appearing to recreate an outfit worn by Margaret Thatcher
This lady Prime Minister is not for turning, either, yet.
But there may come a point – if the money markets continue to plunge and interest rates soar, placing thousands of families at risk of losing their home – where a U-turn may be the only way out of the crisis for the PM.
Alarming levels
In one of her regional TV interviews, Ms Truss was challenged by an interviewer who claimed she seemed to be saying: “Crisis, what crisis?”
She replied: “I’m not saying that at all.
“I think we’re in a very serious situation.”
That’s as close as she’s likely to come to admitting she is facing a crisis. While polls are indeed just a snapshot, there’s a trend now, with Labour’s poll lead growing to alarming levels for the Conservatives.
Political parties usually get a boost in the polls from the publicity their conference brings, as Labour has spectacularly this week.
Anything less than even a modest poll recovery for the Tories after their Birmingham conference next week will plunge the morale of Conservative backbenchers to potentially perilous levels for the PM and her chancellor.
A teenage girl who was killed after getting out of a police car on the M5 in Somerset has been named.
Tamzin Hall, 17 and from Wellington, was hit by a vehicle that was travelling southbound between junction 24 for Bridgwater and junction 25 for Taunton shortly after 11pm on Monday.
She had exited a police vehicle that had stopped on the northbound side of the motorway while transporting her.
A mandatory referral was made to the Independent Office for Police Conduct, which is now carrying out its own investigation into what happened.
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Avon and Somerset Police said: “Our thoughts and sympathies go out to Tamzin’s family for their devastating loss.
“A specially-trained family liaison officer remains in contact with them to keep them updated and to provide support.
“The family have asked for privacy at this difficult time.”
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The police watchdog, the IOPC, has been asked to investigate.
In a statement, director David Ford, said: “This was a truly tragic incident and my thoughts are with Tamzin’s family and friends and everyone affected by the events of that evening.
“We are contacting her family to express our sympathies, explain our role, and set out how our investigation will progress. We will keep them fully updated as our investigation continues.”
Paramedics attended the motorway within minutes of the girl being hit but she was pronounced dead at the scene.
The motorway was closed in both directions while investigations took place. It was fully reopened shortly after 11am on Tuesday, Nationals Highways said.
A survivors group advocating for women allegedly assaulted by Mohamed al Fayed has said it is “grateful another abuser has been unmasked”, after allegations his brother Salah also participated in the abuse.
Justice for Harrods Survivors says it has “credible evidence” suggesting the sexual abuse allegedly perpetrated at Harrods and the billionaire’s properties “was not limited to Mr al Fayed himself”.
The group’s statement comes after three women told BBC News they were sexually assaulted by al Fayed’s brother, Salah.
One woman said she was raped by Mohamed al Fayed while working at Harrods.
Helen, who has waived her right to anonymity, said she then took a job working for his brother as an escape. She alleges she was drugged and sexually assaulted while working at Salah’s home on Park Lane, London.
Two other women have told the BBC they were taken to Monaco and the South of France, where Salah sexually abused them.
Mohamed al Fayed. Pic: AP
The Justice for Harrod Survivors representatives said: “We are proud to support the survivors of Salah Fayed’s abuse and are committed to achieving justice for them, no matter what it takes.”
The group added it “looks forward to the others on whom we have credible evidence – whether abusers themselves or enablers facilitating that abuse – being exposed in due course”.
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Ex-Fulham captain makes Al Fayed allegation
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Salah was one of the three Fayed brothers who co-owned Harrods.
The business, which was sold to Qatar Holdings when Mohamed al Fayed retired in 2010, has said it “supports the bravery of these women in coming forward”.
A statement issued by the famous store on Thursday evening continued: “We encourage these survivors to come forward and make their claims to the Harrods scheme, where they can apply for compensation, as well as support from a counselling perspective and through an independent survivor advocate.
“We also hope that they are looking at every appropriate avenue to them in their pursuit of justice, whether that be Harrods, the police or the Fayed family and estate.”
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Bianca Gascoigne speaks about Al Fayed abuse
The Justice for Harrods Survivors group previously said more than 400 people had contacted them regarding accusations about Mohamed al Fayed, who died last year.
One of those alleged to have been abused is Bianca Gascoigne, the daughter of former England player Paul.
Speaking to Sky News in October, Gascoigne said she was groomed and sexually assaulted by al Fayed when she worked at Harrods as a teenager.
UK
Wes Streeting ‘crossed the line’ by opposing assisted dying in public, says Labour peer Harriet Harman
Wes Streeting “crossed the line” by opposing assisted dying in public and the argument shouldn’t “come down to resources”, a Labour peer has said.
Speaking on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Baroness Harriet Harman criticised the health secretary for revealing how he is going to vote on the matter when it comes before parliament later this month.
MPs are being given a free vote, meaning they can side with their conscience and not party lines, so the government is supposed to be staying neutral.
But Mr Streeting has made clear he will vote against legalising assisted dying, citing concerns end-of-life care is not good enough for people to make an informed choice, and that some could feel pressured into the decision to save the NHS money.
He has also ordered a review into the potential costs of changing the law, warning it could come at the expense of other NHS services if implemented.
Baroness Harman said Mr Streeting has “crossed the line in two ways”.
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“He should not have said how he was going to vote, because that breaches neutrality and sends a signal,” she said.
“And secondly… he’s said the problem is that it will cost money to bring in an assisted dying measure, and therefore he will have to cut other services.
“But paradoxically, he also said it would be a slippery slope because people will be forced to bring about their own death in order to save the NHS money. Well, it can’t be doing both things.
“It can’t be both costing the NHS money and saving the NHS money.”
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Review into assisted dying costs
Baroness Harman said the argument “should not come down to resources” as it is a “huge moral issue” affecting “only a tiny number of people”.
She added that people should not mistake Mr Streeting for being “a kind of proxy for Keir Starmer”.
“The government is genuinely neutral and all of those backbenchers, they can vote whichever way they want,” she added.
Read more on this story:
‘Fix care before assisted dying legislation’
Why assisted dying is controversial – and where it’s already legal
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has previously expressed support for assisted dying, but it is not clear how he intends to vote on the issue or if he will make his decision public ahead of time.
The cabinet has varying views on the topic, with the likes of Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood siding with Mr Streeting in her opposition but Energy Secretary Ed Miliband being for it.
Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband is said to support the bill. Pic: Reuters
Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has concerns. Pic: Reuters
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The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill is being championed by Labour backbencher Kim Leadbeater, who wants to give people with six months left to live the choice to end their lives.
Under her proposals, two independent doctors must confirm a patient is eligible for assisted dying and a High Court judge must give their approval.
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Labour MP Kim Leadbeater discusses End of Life Bill
The bill will also include punishments of up to 14 years in prison for those who break the law, including coercing someone into ending their own life.
MPs will debate and vote on the legislation on 29 November, in what will be the first Commons vote on assisted dying since 2015, when the proposal was defeated.
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