You have to go back to Tony Blair’s honeymoon period after his 1997 landslide general election victory to find a Labour opinion poll lead as massive as 33 points.
All those critics of Sir Keir Starmer – mostly on the Corbynista left-wing of the party, who’ve claimed with the Tories in turmoil, Labour should be 20 points ahead – have their answer now.
Even after a successful Labour conference, the results of YouGov’s poll for The Times are stunning. “You’re joking! That’s an annihilation!” one senior Tory MP told Sky News.
Potentially, yes. One estimate suggested, on that showing in a general election, the Conservatives would be left with just 61 seats in the Commons. That’s fantasy, however. It’s a very, very crude calculation. So dream on, Labour MPs!
Image: When the Blairs moved into Number 10 in 1997, it was the first time in 18 years Labour had been in power
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Opinion polls are a snapshot and this is just one poll and the next general election could be more than two years away.
But YouGov’s findings are damning for Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. They will also bring smug smiles to supporters of Rishi Sunak, who will no doubt say privately: “Told you so.”
Asked whether Mr Sunak would have made a better or worse PM than Ms Truss, 44% said better and 13% said worse. And among Tory supporters, 36% said better and 29% worse.
The Times reports support for the Tories has fallen by seven points, from 28% to 21%, amid fears the government’s plans will lead to spiralling interest rates.
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And it appears it’s largely those “Red Wall” voters who handed victory to Boris Johnson in the 2019 general election who are deserting his successor, Liz Truss now.
A mini-budget, not a Budget
Some 17% of those who backed Mr Johnson in 2019 said they would vote Labour now and only 37% of 2019 Tory voters said they were planning to stick with the party, suggesting a Tory wipeout if an election were held now.
But it won’t be held now. And the veteran Conservative MP Sir Roger Gale correctly pointed out on Sky News that even if Mr Kwarteng’s “Growth Plan” was voted down in the Commons in a major backbench mutiny, the Truss government would not automatically fall.
That’s because, wisely, Mr Kwarteng insisted that despite his tax cuts, his statement last Friday was not a Budget. So the constitutional convention that a defeat on a Budget means a government falls, does not apply.
In a big boost for the Labour leader, allies of Sir Keir will be delighted almost three times as many voters said he would make a better PM than Ms Truss. Her support has fallen 10 points in four days.
The poll, based on a survey of 1,712 voters on 28 and 29 September, was published shortly after Mr Kwarteng issued a desperate plea to Tory MPs to back him.
“I understand your concern,” he said in a letter to his backbenchers, coming after he failed to reassure many of them in a phone call earlier this week. “We are one team and need to remain focused.”
He concluded: “We need your support to do this, as the only people who win if we divide is the Labour Party.”
Well, Labour is winning at the moment. And this devastating opinion poll will trigger more demands from apoplectic Conservative MPs for a U-turn in policy.
But for the time being at least, Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng remain defiant. Margaret Thatcher famously said in her 1981 Tory conference speech: “U-turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning.”
Image: Twitter commentators spotted Liz Truss appearing to recreate an outfit worn by Margaret Thatcher
This lady Prime Minister is not for turning, either, yet.
But there may come a point – if the money markets continue to plunge and interest rates soar, placing thousands of families at risk of losing their home – where a U-turn may be the only way out of the crisis for the PM.
Alarming levels
In one of her regional TV interviews, Ms Truss was challenged by an interviewer who claimed she seemed to be saying: “Crisis, what crisis?”
She replied: “I’m not saying that at all.
“I think we’re in a very serious situation.”
That’s as close as she’s likely to come to admitting she is facing a crisis. While polls are indeed just a snapshot, there’s a trend now, with Labour’s poll lead growing to alarming levels for the Conservatives.
Political parties usually get a boost in the polls from the publicity their conference brings, as Labour has spectacularly this week.
Anything less than even a modest poll recovery for the Tories after their Birmingham conference next week will plunge the morale of Conservative backbenchers to potentially perilous levels for the PM and her chancellor.
It is “shameful” that black boys growing up in London are “far more likely” to die than white boys, Metropolitan Police chief Sir Mark Rowley has told Sky News.
In a wide-ranging interview with Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the commissioner saidthat relations with minority communities are “difficult for us”, while also speaking about the state of the justice system and the size of the police force.
Sir Mark, who came out of retirement to become head of the UK’s largest police force in 2022, said: “We can’t pretend otherwise that we’ve got a history between policing and black communities where policing has got a lot wrong.
“And we get a lot more right today, but we do still make mistakes. That’s not in doubt. I’m being as relentless in that as it can be.”
He said the “vast majority” of the force are “good people”.
However, he added: “But that legacy, combined with the tragedy that some of this crime falls most heavily in black communities, that creates a real problem because the legacy creates concern.”
Sir Mark, who also leads the UK’s counter-terrorism policing, said black boys growing up in London “are far more likely to be dead by the time they’re 18” than white boys.
“That’s, I think, shameful for the city,” he admitted.
“The challenge for us is, as we reach in to tackle those issues, that confrontation that comes from that reaching in, whether it’s stop and search on the streets or the sort of operations you seek.
“The danger is that’s landing in an environment with less trust.
“And that makes it even harder. But the people who win out of that [are] all of the criminals.”
Image: Met Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley
The commissioner added: “I’m so determined to find a way to get past this because if policing in black communities can find a way to confront these issues, together we can give black boys growing up in London equal life chances to white boys, which is not what we’re seeing at the moment.
“And it’s not simply about policing, is it?”
Sir Mark said: “I think black boys are several times more likely to be excluded from school, for example, than white boys.
“And there are multiple issues layered on top of each other that feed into disproportionality.”
‘We’re stretched, but there’s hope and determination’
Sir Mark said the Met is a “stretched service” but people who call 999 can expect an officer to attend.
“If you are in the middle of a crisis and something awful is happening and you dial 999, officers will get there really quickly,” Sir Mark said.
“I don’t pretend we’re not a stretched service.
“We are smaller than I think we ought to be, but I don’t want to give a sort of message of a lack of hope or a lack of determination.”
“I’ve seen the mayor and the home secretary fighting hard for police resourcing,” he added.
“It’s not what I’d want it to be, but it’s better than it might be without their efforts.”
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How police tracked and chased suspected phone thief
‘Close to broken’ justice system facing ‘awful’ delays
Sir Mark said the criminal justice system was “close to broken” and can be “frustrating” for police officers.
“The thing that is frustrating is that the system – and no system can be perfect – but when the system hasn’t managed to turn that person’s life around and get them on the straight and narrow, and it just becomes a revolving door,” he said.
“When that happens, of course that’s frustrating for officers.
“So the more successful prisons and probation can be in terms of getting people onto a law-abiding life from the path they’re on, the better.
“But that is a real challenge. I mean, we’re talking just after Sir Brian Leveson put his report out about the close-to-broken criminal justice system.
“And it’s absolutely vital that those repairs and reforms that he’s talking about happen really quickly, because the system is now so stressed.”
Giving an example, the police commissioner went on: “We’ve got Snaresbrook [Crown Court] in London – it’s now got more than 100 cases listed for 2029.”
Sir Mark asked Trevor Phillips to imagine he had been the victim of a crime, saying: “We’ve caught the person, we’ve charged him, ‘great news, Mr Phillips, we’ve got him charged, they’re going to court’.
“And then a few weeks later, I see the trial’s listed for 2029. That doesn’t feel great, does it?”
Asked about the fact that suspects could still be on the streets for years before going to trial, Sir Mark conceded it’s “pretty awful”.
He added: “If it’s someone on bail, who might have stolen your phone or whatever, and they’re going in for a criminal court trial, that could be four years away. And that’s pretty unacceptable, isn’t it?”
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She pinned the primary blame for the Met’s culture on its past leadership and found stop and search and the use of force against black people was excessive.
At the time, Sir Mark, who had been commissioner for six months when the report was published, said he would not use the labels of institutionally racist, institutionally misogynistic and institutionally homophobic, which Baroness Casey insisted the Met deserved.
However, London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who helped hire Sir Mark – and could fire him – made it clear the commissioner agreed with Baroness Casey’s verdict.
A few months after the report, Sir Mark launched a two-year £366m plan to overhaul the Met, including increased emphasis on neighbourhood policing to rebuild public trust and plans to recruit 500 more community support officers and an extra 565 people to work with teams investigating domestic violence, sexual offences and child sexual abuse and exploitation.
A leading NHS hospital has warned measles is on the rise among children in the UK, after treating 17 cases since June.
Alder Hey Children’s Hospital in Liverpool said it is “concerned” about the increasing number of children and young people who are contracting the highly contagious virus.
It said the cases it has treated since June were for effects and complications of the disease, which, in rare cases, can be fatal if left untreated.
“We are concerned about the increasing number of children and young people who are contracting measles. Measles is a highly contagious viral illness which can cause children to be seriously unwell, requiring hospital treatment, and in rare cases, death,” the hospital said in a statement to Sky News.
In a separate open letter to parents and carers in Merseyside earlier this month, Alder Hey, along with the UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) and directors of Public Health for Liverpool, Sefton and Knowsley, warned the increase in measles in the region could be down to fewer people getting vaccinated.
The letter read: “We are seeing more cases of measles in our children and young people because fewer people are having the MMR vaccine, which protects against measles and two other viruses called mumps and rubella.
“Children in hospital, who are very poorly for another reason, are at higher risk of catching the virus.”
What are the symptoms of measles?
The first symptoms of measles include:
• A high temperature
• A runny or blocked nose
• Sneezing
• A cough
• Red, sore or watery eyes
Cold-like symptoms are followed a few days later by a rash, which starts on the face and behind the ears, before it spreads.
The spots are usually raised and can join together to form blotchy patches which are not usually itchy.
Some people may get small spots in their mouth too.
What should you do if you think your child has measles?
Ask for an urgent GP appointment or call 111 if you think your child has measles.
If your child has been vaccinated, it is very unlikely they have measles.
You should not go to the doctor without calling ahead, as measles is very infectious.
If your child is diagnosed with measles by a doctor, make sure they avoid close contact with babies and anyone who is pregnant or has a weakened immune system.
Image: The skin of a patient after three days of measles infection
It comes after a Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) report released earlier this month determined that uptake of vaccines in the UK has stalled over the last decade and is, in many cases, declining.
It said none of the routine childhood vaccinations have met the 95% coverage target since 2021, putting youngsters at risk of measles, meningitis and whooping cough.
The MMR vaccine has been available through the NHS for years. Two doses gives lifelong protection against measles, mumps and rubella.
Image: Two doses of the MMR vaccine give lifelong protection against measles, mumps and rubella. Pic: iStock
According to the latest NHS data, Liverpool was one of the cities outside London with the lowest uptake of the MMR vaccination in 2023-2024.
By the time children were five years old, 86.5% had been give one dose, decreasing to 73.4% for a second dose.
The RCPCH report put the nationwide decline down to fears over vaccinations, as well as families having trouble booking appointments and a lack of continuous care in the NHS, with many seeing a different GP on each visit.
In the US, measles cases are at their highest in more than three decades.
Cases reached 1,288 on Wednesday this week, according to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, with 14 states battling active outbreaks.
The largest outbreak started five months ago in communities in West Texas, where vaccination uptake is low. Since then, three people have died – including two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico – with dozens more in hospital.
Steve Barton is angry, and he has every right to be.
The 68-year-old retired engineer stares at his medical notes that, he says, expose in black and white the moment his life changed forever.
“I have somehow missed… due to my mistake,” a doctor writes in one of the notes, after it became apparent that Mr Barton had not been urgently referred to specialists over what later became an aggressive form of throat cancer.
Steve now has a prosthetic voice box and is one of many British patients fighting medical negligence claims after being misdiagnosed.
NHS officials in Scotland are dealing with thousands of cases annually. Meanwhile, Westminster’s Public Affairs Committee (PAC) recently disclosed England’s Department of Health and Social Care has set aside £58.2bn to settle clinical lawsuits arising before 2024.
Mr Barton, who lives in Alloa near Stirling, repeatedly contacted his doctors after he began struggling with his breathing, speaking and swallowing. His concerns were recorded by the NHS as sinus issues.
As panic grew and his voice became weaker, Mr Barton paid to see a private consultant who revealed the devastating news that a massive tumour had grown on his larynx and required part of his throat to be removed immediately.
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“I am angry, I am upset, I don’t want anyone else to go through this,” Mr Barton told Sky News.
“There were at least four, possibly five, conversations on the phone. He [the doctor] said to me that it sounds like I’ve got reflux.”
‘He was palmed off’
Mr Barton is now unable to work and cannot shower by himself because if water enters the hole in his neck, he could drown.
And a windy day can cause a debilitating coughing fit if a gust catches his prosthetic voice box.
Image: Steve Barton is one of thousands battling medical negligence cases
Asked if he believes this was avoidable, Mr Barton replied: “Absolutely. 100%.”
His wife, Heather, told Sky News: “He hates this. You see him crying. It breaks my heart. It’s been hard emotionally.”
She added: “Everybody knows their own body. He was palmed off and the consequence is a neck dissection. It [life] changed overnight.”
Legal battle over compensation
The Barton family have been locked in a legal battle over their ordeal with the Medical and Dental Defence Union Scotland (MDDUS) – a body which indemnifies GPs.
It has not admitted formal liability in this case but has agreed to settle financial compensation to Mr Barton.
Izabela Wosiak, a solicitor from Irwin Mitchell who represents the Bartons, said: “Cases like Steve’s are complex and usually quite difficult, but solicitors have accepted there was no defence to this case.
“They have arranged to make an interim payment; however we are still in the process of negotiating final settlement.”
A MDDUS spokeswoman refused to comment while talks are being finalised.
What is the scale of medical negligence in Britain?
The NHS in Scotland is under the devolved control of the Scottish government.
Figures suggest there were almost 14,000 clinical negligence claims and incidents in 2023/24, an increase on the previous year.
It comes as PAC warned that the total liabilities in England’s health service has hit £58.2bn.
PAC chair Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP told Sky News: “I extend my sympathies to Steve and his family. Unfortunately, he is not alone.
“Some are really heart-wrenching tales. Every single claim somebody is involved, someone has been in some way injured, so this is a terrible thing.
“We are going to be working on how we can make the whole system less litigious and get compensation paid out quickly because if the state does harm to somebody, the least they could do is to compensate them as quickly as possible.”
Paul Whiteing, the chief executive of patient safety charity Action Against Medical Accidents, told Sky News: “The NHS itself last year [in England] paid out just over £5bn in compensational set aside money for compensation that it would need to pay out.
“It’s a huge cost and of course that doesn’t speak to the cost to every individual, every family, every person who is impacted by the consequences of some form of medical accident and the trauma that can go with that.”