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Liz Truss will meet the head of the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog today after a powerful group of cross-party MPs demanded the chancellor release a full economic forecast by the end of October – a month earlier than planned.

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will join the prime minister as they meet the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Richard Hughes before they are handed a first draft of its full fiscal forecasts next week.

The Treasury confirmed to Sky News the meeting is happening but would not comment on the fact it is highly unusual for a PM to attend an OBR meeting.

They also denied it was an emergency meeting.

A Treasury spokesman said: “We are committed to working with the OBR.”

The news that the pair will be having a meeting with the OBR came just hours after the Treasury Select Committee, made up of MPs from all parties, demanded Mr Kwarteng release a full economic forecast from the OBR by the end of October and bring forward his medium-term budget from 23 November.

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Mel Stride, Tory chair of the committee, had said in his letter to the chancellor it is “hard to conclude other than that an absence of a forecast has in some part driven the lack of confidence in markets”.

He added: “Some have formed the unfortunate impression that the government may be seeking to avoid scrutiny, possibly on account of expecting the OBR forecast to be unsupportive of the achievement of the economic outcomes the government expects from the Growth Plan, including 2.5% trend growth in the medium term.”

Mr Kwarteng had said the forecast would be released on 23 November but after last Friday’s mini-budget caused economic turmoil for the UK, the committee discovered the chancellor will be getting an initial OBR forecast on 7 October.

They asked him to publish “without delay” the initial economic and fiscal forecast the OBR provided to him when he started the job a few weeks ago.

A reply from the chancellor has been requested for no later than Monday.

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Senior Tory blames mini-budget for turmoil

Mr Stride also expressed frustration in his letter at having pressed Mr Kwarteng and his predecessor Nadhim Zahawi to publish an OBR forecast before the mini-budget and said the OBR had assured him on 26 August they could produce a forecast to that timescale and had already been working on it for a month.

“The OBR was standing by ready to provide a meaningful forecast alongside the 23 September statement had the Treasury requested it. No such request was received,” Mr Stride said.

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Mr Stride said he was pleased to see the OBR meeting happening.

“The PM and the chancellor must use this meeting as a reset moment – an opportunity to urgently bring forward the OBR forecast incorporating credible new fiscal rules and a plan which the OBR assesses as having a good chance of meeting them.

“Then we can all take a deep breath and start to move forward with greater confidence.”

The senior Tory told Sky News’ Daily Podcast earlier on Thursday: “Many colleagues are very concerned, and I think that’s totally unsurprising.

“I mean, I can speak for myself. I’m on the record as saying that I think if we’re not very careful, then our position as being the party of sound money and economic responsibility, fiscal responsibility, may be in jeopardy.”

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Chancellor ‘sticking with growth plan’

He added that he did not think it was incompetence that caused the current problems and suspects “some of those involved have been taken slightly by surprise how quickly the markets turned” but he thinks publishing an OBR forecast would be central to calming the markets by “demonstrating credibility”.

Liz Truss and Mr Kwarteng have today been defending the mini-budget, with the prime minister insisting the government took “decisive action” that will aid growth.

The chancellor said the plan is aimed at “protecting people right across the country” and was “absolutely essential” for growth.

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Tesla’s board members have reportedly started looking for Elon Musk’s successor as CEO

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Tesla's board members have reportedly started looking for Elon Musk's successor as CEO

Tesla’s board members have reportedly started a search for someone to replace Elon Musk as CEO.

Several executive search firms were approached to find a successor around a month ago, the Wall Street Journal reported.

But it added that the current status of the succession planning for the electric car-maker was not known.

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Tesla’s chair, Robyn Denholm, later reacted to the report by insisting that any suggestion of an active search was “absolutely false”.

She added that the board was highly confident in Musk’s ability to continue “executing on the exciting growth plan ahead”.

Musk’s net worth has plunged and Tesla stocks have fallen sharply amid a public backlash over his role in Donald Trump’s government. He owns just under 13% of Tesla stock and is the largest shareholder.

The world’s richest man has been leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where he has overseen the firing of tens of thousands of government employees.

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He has also supported far-right parties in Europe, which has led to protests against Musk and Tesla, which have seen its showrooms and charging stations vandalised across the US and Europe.

President Trump has labelled the vandals “terrorists”.

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Musk pulls back from DOGE role

It comes after Musk said the time he spends with DOGE would “drop significantly” from May and he will dedicate more time to running his companies, such as Tesla, SpaceX and X.

The board members met with Musk and asked him to announce publicly he would spend more time at Tesla, the report said.

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It was unclear if Musk, who is a member of the board, was aware of any attempts to identify a successor, or if his pledge to spend more time at Tesla had affected succession planning, it added.

On Wednesday, Mr Trump said Musk could be part of his administration for as long as he wants.

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“You’re invited to stay as long as you want,” Mr Trump said.

He said Musk had been “treated unfairly” for his role in helping Mr Trump slash the size of the federal government, adding: “You really have sacrificed a lot.”

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‘De minimis’: The rarely-examined trade clause about to become a very big deal

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'De minimis': The rarely-examined trade clause about to become a very big deal

The thing about trade, and the economics of trade, is that it is simultaneously desperately boring and desperately important.

For example, consider a little bit of legal small print no one spent all that much time thinking about until recently – a clause in most countries’ customs arrangements known as “de minimis”.

The idea behind de minimis is quite simple.

Collecting customs can be an expensive business. You need to employ lots of people to check goods, police the system and collect the relevant customs and tariffs.

In theory, you could fund that via the customs you’re charging people to import goods into the country.

But what if the items you’re imposing tariffs and charges on are so cheap that it makes no economic sense to actually impose those charges?

Consider a £5 t-shirt of the kind you might order from an online retailer such as Shein. In theory, that garment should face a 20% tariff when it arrives from China into the UK.

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But since 20% of a small number is an even smaller number, most customs authorities, including those in the UK, have taken the stance of essentially excluding any cheap imports from paying customs. This is the ‘de minimis’ rule.

There are similar rules in most countries, with the main difference being the threshold at which they kick in. Here in Britain, de minimis applies to anything worth less than £135. In the US the threshold at which you start paying customs charges is higher: $800.

Chart showing each country's de minimis level

Now, there’s a long and detailed set of discussions that have bored on for decades about the pros and cons of this scheme. The historic arguments against collecting those fees were that a) doing so probably cost more money than it would raise, b) scanning and checking every import would jam up ports and airports unnecessarily and c) it might have a bearing on the wider economy as it throws further sand in the wheels of commerce.

But in recent years, a host of mostly Chinese retailers have exploited the de minimis rule to ship (actually, mostly to fly) cheap products to the US, UK, Europe and beyond.

The most visible of these companies are Shein and Temu. By directly flying consignments of very cheap clothes and consumer goods to airports in the west, they have been able to undercut other companies without having to pay customs fees.

Number of de minimis packages imported in to the US since 2018

All of which is why, alongside the host of other tariffs imposed in recent weeks, Donald Trump is also doing something else – eliminating America’s de minimis rules altogether. At least, that’s the plan.

Having pledged to do so in February, the administration rapidly reversed the decision after consignments began to pile up at US airports.

However, the impending rule, which is due to kick in this Friday, sounds like it might be more concrete than the last one. And, if it’s actually imposed, tariffs of 145% will be imposed on goods that, once upon a time, didn’t face any tariffs at all. Which is a very big deal indeed.

chart showing the app store ranking for Chinese ecommerce brands

Already, prices on websites including Shein have begun to increase. Consumers have begun to abandon the sites’ apps. And consignments of goods bound for the US from China have begun to slow.

The real question is what happens next.

Chart on how Shein prices have changed

Does the White House U-turn again? Or does it stand firm? Even as American consumers see the cost of their hitherto cheap goods rise, and potentially even face empty supermarket shelves, the notion of which was summoned up by a delegation of retail chiefs who met with the president last week.

The short answer, as with so much about the current US administration is: no one really knows, and if they say they do, don’t believe them.

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Stamp duty changes knock house prices, lender says

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Stamp duty changes knock house prices, lender says

Lower stamp duty thresholds introduced at the start of the month are being widely blamed for the biggest monthly decline in UK house price growth since August 2023, according to a major lender’s measure.

Nationwide’s latest report on the housing market showed a 0.6% decline in April, taking the rolling annual rate of growth down to 3.4% from the 3.9% determined in March.

The bigger than expected decline has been widely explained by a slowdown in activity prompted by the stamp duty changes, which affected buyers in England and Northern Ireland at the beginning of the month.

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They had the greatest effect in England, where the changes included first-time buyers paying stamp duty on property costing £300,000 – up from £450,000 – while the surcharge for second homes also increased, by two percentage points, to 5%.

There was a rush to complete sales in March ahead of the deadline, which is also likely to have influenced prices.

But Nationwide said that April marked the first decline, in its measure, since August last year.

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The lender’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, said: “The softening in house price growth was to be expected, given the changes to stamp duty at the start of the month. Early indications suggest there was a significant jump in transactions in March, with buyers bringing forward their purchases to avoid additional tax obligations.

“The market is likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays. Nevertheless, activity is likely to pick up steadily as summer progresses, despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.”

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He pointed to the pace of wage growth continuing to outstrip inflation, coupled with low unemployment and retreating mortgage rates.

Rising expectations for a Bank of England interest rate cut next week, with a growing potential for more in the months ahead, are also forecast to bolster activity.

Prices have historically been supported by weak availability but estate agents have reported growth in seller listings as spring has got under way.

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