Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng will meet the head of the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog today amid the fall-out from the government’s mini-budget.
The talks with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) come after a week of economic turmoil following last Friday’s announcements, which saw the pound plunge, mortgages rocked and pension funds needing to be saved.
It is highly unusual for a PM to attend an OBR meeting – which is usually held between the independent watchdog and the chancellor to discuss upcoming economic forecasts – but the Treasury has denied that this is an emergency measure.
The OBR was set up by the government in 2010 to provide independent analysis of the UK’s public finances.
Financial Secretary to the Treasury Andrew Griffith said it was “a very good idea” for the meeting to take place, but former Bank of England deputy governor Sir Charles Bean told Sky News “there is an element of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted”.
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Senior Tory blames mini-budget for turmoil
The news came hours after the Treasury Select Committee, made up of MPs from all parties, demanded that the chancellor release a full economic forecast from the OBR by the end of October.
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He is also being urged to bring forward his medium-term budget from 23 November.
Mr Griffith hinted to Sky News that a report could come sooner, saying the independent OBR has “got to be given the freedom and ability to do that”.
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But, he added: “That’s a decision for them. It’s not for me or anyone else to dictate that to them.”
Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng have said they are still committed to their policies – and argue that a £45bn package of tax cuts is the “right plan” for the economy.
But Labour’s shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the mini-budget was “without question one of the biggest unforced errors in policymaking in this country’s history”.
He reiterated the demand of his and other opposition parties to recall parliament and reverse the fiscal measures.
No independent OBR forecast accompanied last week’s announcements – but the watchdog said it had prepared a draft for the new chancellor on his first day in office.
The absence of this forecast reportedly contributed to concerns in the City.
Mr Griffith insisted a forecast last Friday would not have been able to “reflect [the] economic growth in their numbers” that he claimed would come from government policies, as the measures would have been “finalised in the hours before the chancellor stood up”.
But Mel Stride, Conservative chair of the Treasury Select Committee, had said in his letter to the chancellor it is “hard to conclude other than that an absence of a forecast has in some part driven the lack of confidence in markets”.
He added: “Some have formed the unfortunate impression that the government may be seeking to avoid scrutiny, possibly on account of expecting the OBR forecast to be unsupportive of the achievement of the economic outcomes the government expects from the Growth Plan, including 2.5% trend growth in the medium term.”
Sir Charles agreed, saying the lack of forecast was “clearly one of the factors that is contributing to the market turmoil”.
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Chancellor ‘sticking with growth plan’
Mr Kwarteng had said the forecast would be released on 23 November – but after last Friday’s mini-budget caused economic turmoil, the committee discovered the chancellor will be getting an initial OBR forecast on 7 October.
They asked him to publish “without delay” the initial economic and fiscal forecast the OBR provided to him when he started the job a few weeks ago.
A reply from the chancellor has been requested for no later than Monday.
Mr Stride also expressed frustration in his letter at having pressed Mr Kwarteng and his predecessor Nadhim Zahawi to publish an OBR forecast before the mini-budget and said the OBR had assured him on 26 August that it could produce a forecast to that timescale and had already been working on it for a month.
“The OBR was standing by ready to provide a meaningful forecast alongside the 23 September statement had the Treasury requested it. No such request was received,” Mr Stride said.
Mr Stride said he was pleased to see the OBR meeting happening.
“The PM and the chancellor must use this meeting as a reset moment – an opportunity to urgently bring forward the OBR forecast incorporating credible new fiscal rules and a plan which the OBR assesses as having a good chance of meeting them.
“Then we can all take a deep breath and start to move forward with greater confidence.”
The senior Tory told Sky News’ Daily Podcast earlier on Thursday: “Many colleagues are very concerned, and I think that’s totally unsurprising.
“I mean, I can speak for myself. I’m on the record as saying that I think if we’re not very careful, then our position as being the party of sound money and economic responsibility, fiscal responsibility, may be in jeopardy.”
Mr Stride added that he did not think it was incompetence that caused the current problems and suspects “some of those involved have been taken slightly by surprise how quickly the markets turned” but he thinks publishing an OBR forecast would be central to calming the markets by “demonstrating credibility”.
A YouGov poll for The Times shows Labour has opened up a massive 33-point lead over the Conservatives.
Tory MP Sir Charles Walker admitted his party would be “wiped out” if an election was called tomorrow – and “would cease to exist as a functioning political party”.
Mr Griffith tried to urge calm within his party, telling Sky News: “This is a difficult time for all developed economies and for all governments. This is a government that’s taken decisive steps to deal with the immediate energy crisis.”
But former Bank of England top brass Sir Charles took issue with the government’s focus on energy bills and the war in Ukraine, saying: “If all the government had announced last Friday was the energy price guarantee… I don’t think there would have been a problem with there not being an accompanying forecast because those support measures are intended to be temporary and will be self-terminating when wholesale energy prices fall back.
“The thing that created the problem, in my view, was the fact alongside that the chancellor chose to announce the rolling back of National Insurance increases and the slated increase in corporate taxes… and those are intended to be permanent, so they potentially have implications for the sustainability of the public finances.”
A teenager suddenly becomes violent, his anger towards women fuelled by online influencers, while his parents struggle to process what their son is capable of.
Does this sound familiar?
It’s the story of the hit drama Adolescence – but for Jess and Rob, it’s their life.
Their 14-year-old son Harry’s violence has escalated so rapidly he’s had to be taken into care. We’ve changed all their names to protect their identities.
Until the age of 12, Harry’s parents say he was a “wonderful” son. But they saw a change in his personality, which they believe was sparked by an incident when he was hit by a girl. Soon, he developed an online interest in masculine power and control.
Image: Harry’s personality changed after he was assaulted (this image shows an actor in a Sky News reconstruction)
“Harry became obsessed with being strong, and I think he developed a difficulty around certain female people because of the assault,” Jess says.
“He had to be in charge… in every setting,” Rob adds.
Then one night, he punched his mother, Jess. His parents called the police in the hope it would shock him out of doing it again. But, as time went on, the violence escalated.
“We probably must have called the police over 100 times,” Rob says.
One attack was so serious, Jess ended up in hospital. The violence spilled outside the home too as Harry assaulted neighbours and friends.
Then he threatened to stab a teacher.
“Every time we think it can’t get any worse, something else happens and it does get worse,” Rob says. “Unfortunately, him getting hold of a knife is quite likely to happen.”
They say Adolescence, which stars Stephen Graham, Ashley Walters and Owen Cooper, touched a nerve.
Image: Jess and Rob say they called the police 100 times (this image shows actors in a Sky News reconstruction)
“My worst fear is that he’s going to end up killing one of us,” says Jess. “If not us, then somebody else…”
It’s a shocking thought for any parent to have. As well as contacting police, the family have tried many times to get help from social services and the NHS for Harry’s deteriorating mental health.
“We’ve been told that we’re using too many resources and accessing too many services,” Rob says. “We tried for 18 months to get him more intensive therapeutic help. At every turn it was ‘no, no, no’.”
They have found help with an organisation called PEGS that supports parents who are victims of their own children’s violence.
Image: PEGS founder Michelle John says many families struggle to have their concerns taken seriously
Last year it was contacted by over 3,500 families, a 70% increase on 2023. Founder Michelle John says many families struggle to have their concerns taken seriously.
“What we’re hearing time and time again is that referrals are not being picked up because thresholds aren’t being met and perhaps the parent or caregiver isn’t a risk to the child,” she says. “Families are falling through gaps.”
In some parts of the country, local organisations are attempting to fill those gaps. Bright Star Boxing Academy in Shropshire has children referred by schools, social workers and even the police.
Joe Lockley, who runs the academy, says the problem is services that deal with youth violence are “inundated”.
“The biggest cause of the violent behaviour is mental health,” he says. “They lack that sense of belonging and control, and it’s quite easy to gain that from the wrong crowd and getting involved in violence.
“Social media is having a huge impact, especially around that young person’s identity.”
Image: Ethan at the Bright Star Boxing Academy
Ethan, 18, agrees. He joined the academy aged 14. By then he had already been arrested several times for getting into fights.
He believes bullying sparked anxiety and depression. “Someone could look at me, I’d be angry,” he says.
“Social media – that’s definitely a massive part. You’ve got so many people that are living this material life. They’ve got loads of money.
“My main thing was seeing people with amazing bodies – I felt I couldn’t reach that point and it made me self-conscious, which would add on to the anger which then turned to hatred towards other people.”
Image: Ethan says boxing has helped him turn his life around
Without the support of the boxing academy, he believes, he wouldn’t have been able to turn his life around.
“I would either be in prison or I would have done something a lot worse to myself,” he says.
“It’s just this massive mess in your head where you’ve got a million thoughts at once – you don’t know what to think or how to even speak sometimes,” he adds.
“All we need is someone that’s got the time for us… and the understanding that it’s a war in our heads.”
A government spokesperson told Sky News: “We have seen too many preventable tragedies caused by the failings of mental health services, and it’s unacceptable that young people have not been getting the care and treatment they need to keep them, their families and the wider public safe.
“We are working to ensure children and their families get that help. We are investing over £50m to fund specialist support in schools, launching a Young Futures hub in every community, and providing access to a specialist mental health professional in every school in England.”
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK
A plastic surgeon has been found guilty of the attempted murder of a fellow doctor who he stabbed after a failed attempt to set his house on fire.
Peter Brooks had cycled to the home of Graeme Perks in Halam, near Southwell, Nottinghamshire, while wearing camouflage gear and armed with a crowbar, petrol, matches and a knife in the early hours of 14 January 2021.
The 61-year-old then doused the ground floor of the property with petrol before stabbing fellow plastic surgeon Mr Perks because he wanted him “out of the way”, his trial at Loughborough Courthouse heard.
The victim’s wife and children were sleeping at the time of the attack, the jury was told.
Mr Perks, a consultant plastic surgeon, had provided evidence in disciplinary proceedings against Brooks, who faced potentially losing his job with Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, the jury was told.
Brooks was “voluntarily absent” from his month-long trial because he was on hunger strike and said he would “rather be dead than incarcerated”, it can now be reported.
He also sacked his lawyers before the trial and was unrepresented in the case.
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Image: Graeme Perks is fighting for his life in hospital. Pic: BAPRAS
When opening the prosecution’s case, Tracy Ayling KC had told the jury it was “clear that the defendant hated Graeme Perks” and wanted him “out of the way”.
Mr Perks, who was 65 at the time, had retired the month before the attack and suffered “extremely life-threatening” injuries to his liver, intestines and pancreas, and was given a 95% chance of death, the court was told.
He had woken up on the night of the attack when Brooks smashed through his conservatory, the jury heard.
Image: The camouflage suit worn by Peter Brooks during the attack. Pic Nottinghamshire Police
Mr Perks then went downstairs where his feet “felt a bit damp” from the petrol, which Brooks had also thrown against the wall next to the stairs, before he felt a “blow to his body”, the court was told.
Brooks was later found asleep on a garden bench later that morning when he was taken to hospital for injuries to his hand, and was arrested.
His blood was found on a door at the scene of the attack.
Brooks has been convicted of two counts of attempted murder, attempted arson with intent to endanger life, and possession of a knife in a public place.
Jurors deliberated for more than 12 hours before finding Brooks guilty of all the charges against him.
Image: Graeme Perks leaves court in Loughborough after giving evidence.
Pic: PA
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
A two-phase statutory public inquiry into the Southport murders has been formally launched.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the first phase would look at the circumstances around Axel Rudakubana’s attack on a Taylor Swift-themed dance class last summer.
It will focus on issues around policing, the criminal justice system and the multiple agencies involved with the attacker who killed three girls – seven-year-old Elsie Stancombe, six-year-old Bebe King and Alice da Silva Aguiar, nine.
It follows the revelation Rudakubana had been referred to the government’s Prevent scheme on three occasions, with the cases being closed each time.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.