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Liz Truss will meet the head of the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog today after a powerful group of cross-party MPs demanded the chancellor release a full economic forecast by the end of October – a month earlier than planned.

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will join the prime minister as they meet the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Richard Hughes before they are handed a first draft of its full fiscal forecasts next week.

The Treasury confirmed to Sky News the meeting is happening but would not comment on the fact it is highly unusual for a PM to attend an OBR meeting.

They also denied it was an emergency meeting.

A Treasury spokesman said: “We are committed to working with the OBR.”

The news that the pair will be having a meeting with the OBR came just hours after the Treasury Select Committee, made up of MPs from all parties, demanded Mr Kwarteng release a full economic forecast from the OBR by the end of October and bring forward his medium-term budget from 23 November.

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Mel Stride, Tory chair of the committee, had said in his letter to the chancellor it is “hard to conclude other than that an absence of a forecast has in some part driven the lack of confidence in markets”.

He added: “Some have formed the unfortunate impression that the government may be seeking to avoid scrutiny, possibly on account of expecting the OBR forecast to be unsupportive of the achievement of the economic outcomes the government expects from the Growth Plan, including 2.5% trend growth in the medium term.”

Mr Kwarteng had said the forecast would be released on 23 November but after last Friday’s mini-budget caused economic turmoil for the UK, the committee discovered the chancellor will be getting an initial OBR forecast on 7 October.

They asked him to publish “without delay” the initial economic and fiscal forecast the OBR provided to him when he started the job a few weeks ago.

A reply from the chancellor has been requested for no later than Monday.

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Senior Tory blames mini-budget for turmoil

Mr Stride also expressed frustration in his letter at having pressed Mr Kwarteng and his predecessor Nadhim Zahawi to publish an OBR forecast before the mini-budget and said the OBR had assured him on 26 August they could produce a forecast to that timescale and had already been working on it for a month.

“The OBR was standing by ready to provide a meaningful forecast alongside the 23 September statement had the Treasury requested it. No such request was received,” Mr Stride said.

Read more:

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Mr Stride said he was pleased to see the OBR meeting happening.

“The PM and the chancellor must use this meeting as a reset moment – an opportunity to urgently bring forward the OBR forecast incorporating credible new fiscal rules and a plan which the OBR assesses as having a good chance of meeting them.

“Then we can all take a deep breath and start to move forward with greater confidence.”

The senior Tory told Sky News’ Daily Podcast earlier on Thursday: “Many colleagues are very concerned, and I think that’s totally unsurprising.

“I mean, I can speak for myself. I’m on the record as saying that I think if we’re not very careful, then our position as being the party of sound money and economic responsibility, fiscal responsibility, may be in jeopardy.”

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Chancellor ‘sticking with growth plan’

He added that he did not think it was incompetence that caused the current problems and suspects “some of those involved have been taken slightly by surprise how quickly the markets turned” but he thinks publishing an OBR forecast would be central to calming the markets by “demonstrating credibility”.

Liz Truss and Mr Kwarteng have today been defending the mini-budget, with the prime minister insisting the government took “decisive action” that will aid growth.

The chancellor said the plan is aimed at “protecting people right across the country” and was “absolutely essential” for growth.

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Russia sanctions-busting? Big questions remain over UK car exports

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Russia sanctions-busting? Big questions remain over UK car exports

The extraordinary, unprecedented and largely unexplained flows of millions of pounds of British luxury cars into states neighbouring Russia continued in February, according to new official data.

Some £26m worth of British cars were exported to Azerbaijan in February, according to data from HM Revenue & Customs.

The numbers show that in the latest quarter this former Soviet state with developing economy status was the 17th biggest destination for UK cars, bigger than long-established export markets such as Ireland, Portugal and Qatar.

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Azerbaijan’s ascent has coincided almost to the month with the imposition of sanctions on the export of cars to Russia.

British cars are banned from being sent into Russia, both as “dual use” goods, which could be repurposed as weapons, and, for any cars over the value of £42,000, under specific luxury goods restrictions.

However, even as UK car exports to Russia plummeted to zero, they have risen sharply to states neighbouring Russia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and, most notably of all, Azerbaijan.

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While it is impossible to prove where those shipments end up eventually, there is plentiful anecdotal evidence that these countries are being used as conduits to smuggle banned goods to Russia.

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The latest HMRC data shows that in the three months to February, the average value of the cars being sent to Azerbaijan was over £115,000, making this small, relatively poor economy one of the most high-value luxury car markets in the world – alongside Switzerland, Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia.

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The total value of UK car exports to Azerbaijan in the two years since the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions is now £523m. That compares to £58m in the immediately preceding two years.

Britain’s motor lobby group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), has insisted that this 800% increase can be explained by domestic factors in the Azerbaijani economy – and is not connected with Russian sanctions.

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March: British-made luxury cars still being bought by rich Russians

Read more:
UK-made cars are getting into Russia despite sanctions
2,000% increase in car sales to Azerbaijan ‘has nothing to do with Russia’

An SMMT spokesperson said: “UK carmakers comply with all trade sanctions and would condemn any party putting that commitment at risk. Car exports from UK factories to Azerbaijan have grown since 2019 due to multiple factors, including significant new model launches, pent-up demand and a growing domestic appetite for UK luxury cars. Indeed, UN data shows that just two cars of any origin have been officially exported from Azerbaijan to Russia this year.

“We have never ruled out the possibility that third parties might exploit any vulnerabilities in the sanction regime, and manufacturers do everything in their power to prevent this. Any UK-built vehicle on sale in Russia found its way there without their authorisation. This is a fast-moving global issue covering products from multiple sectors in many countries deploying sanctions, and tackling any vulnerabilities requires a coordinated, global response.”

However, while United Nations (UN) data suggests the quantity of cars being officially exported to Russia remains low, that same evidence suggests that, far from behaving like a normal car market, Azerbaijan does seem to be funnelling cars off elsewhere into Central Asia.

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Contrary to the SMMT’s analysis, which suggests the car exports can be explained by domestic factors, car exports from Azerbaijan have risen by 4,800% since the invasion of Russia, with most of the cars destined (according to UN data) for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and the United Arab Emirates.

According to UK government sources, these states are understood to be widely used as conduits for goods into Russia.

Cars are not the only British goods to have seen a large spike in exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus – so too have components and machinery used to make weapons. In a visit to Kyrgyzstan this week, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron admitted that Russia is using central Asian countries to sidestep sanctions and build its “war machine”.

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never ‘knowingly’ did anything wrong

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never 'knowingly' did anything wrong

A former top Post Office executive has told the Horizon scandal inquiry she never “knowingly” did anything wrong and did not remember a 2010 email saying that cash balances in sub-postmasters’ branch accounts could be remotely accessed.

Angela van den Bogerd, who held various roles over 35 years at the organisation, made the comments after opening her evidence on Thursday by saying she was “truly, truly sorry” for the “devastation” caused to wrongly convicted sub-postmasters.

Her roles at the Post Office included handling complaints about its Horizon software, which was provided by Japanese firm Fujitsu.

More than 700 Post Office managers were prosecuted between 1999 and 2015, after the system made it seem like money was missing from branches. At the time, the company insisted Horizon was robust.

Ms van der Bogerd, who was played by Coronation Street actress Katherine Kelly in the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, had previously not spoken publicly since a 2019 High Court case.

At the time, Judge Peter Fraser criticised her testimony and said she “did not give me frank evidence, and sought to obfuscate matters, and mislead me”.

Jason Beer KC, lead counsel to the inquiry, challenged Ms van den Bogerd’s opening statement, as he accused her of not saying sorry for her own role in the scandal.

Ms van den Bogerd, who resigned as the Post Office’s business improvement director in 2020, said she regretted missing significant documents and apologised for “not getting to the answer more quickly”.

She said: “But with the evidence I had and the parameters of my role at the time, I did the best I could to the best of my ability.”

Ms van den Bogerd added: “I didn’t knowingly do anything wrong and I would never knowingly do anything wrong.”

Read more on this story:
Review ordered into another Post Office IT system

Scandal victim demands jail for those who denied her justice
Leaked Post Office recordings revealed

The inquiry heard that Ms van den Bogerd was sent an email in December 2010 informing her Fujitsu could remotely amend cash balances in branch accounts via Horizon.

She told the inquiry she had no memory of it and only became aware of the issue in a January 2011 email.

The inquiry was shown a transcript of a meeting that same month between her and sub-postmistress Rachpal Athwal, who was sacked after being wrongly accused of stealing £710 before being reinstated.

In the meeting, Ms van den Bogerd said Horizon could not be accessed remotely by anyone from the Post Office, without mentioning that Fujitsu could, the inquiry heard.

Mr Beer asked: “Are you saying that what you said overall there is accurate?”

Ms van den Bogerd replied: “So that is accurate. I go on to talk later about Fujitsu, I believe”. Mr Beer said it was inaccurate because she had not given the full picture.

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Scandal ‘tip of the iceberg’

The inquiry also heard that, prior to a High Court case in 2019, Ms van den Bogerd made a witness statement in 2018 in which she said the first she knew of the possibility of inserting transactions into the system remotely was in the year or so before.

Mr Beer told the inquiry: “That was false.”

She replied: “Well, at the time I didn’t think it was.”

Pressed further on the issue, she said the messaging on remote access was “constantly changing” and that colleagues had been “very strong” that such access was “impossible”.

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‘I have had breakdowns’

Ms van den Bogerd was also asked about an October 2014 email she and other senior staff were sent by Post Office media officer Melanie Corfield, which discussed what the response should be if anyone asked about remote access to Horizon.

The email said: “Our current line if we are asked about remote access potentially being used to change branch data/transactions is simply: ‘This is not and never has been possible’.”

Mr Beer said: “You knew that was false from multiple sources by then, by now, didn’t you?”

Ms van den Bogerd appeared flustered, before replying: “Clearly I was aware of that and just didn’t pick this up… it didn’t register with me at the time, but obviously from what we’ve discussed then this was incorrect terms of reference of a flow of information, yes.”

She added she was “certainly not trying to cover up… it wasn’t just me, there were other people party to the same information”.

Meanwhile, earlier in the hearing, the former executive said she agreed with Mr Beer that using words such as “exception” or “anomaly” to describe computer bugs had been an “attempt to control the narrative”.

The inquiry continues.

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never ‘knowingly’ did anything wrong

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never 'knowingly' did anything wrong

A former top Post Office executive has told the inquiry into the Horizon scandal that she never “knowingly” did anything wrong.

Angela van den Bogerd, who held various roles over 35 years at the organisation, made the comment after opening her evidence on Thursday by saying she was “truly, truly sorry” for the “devastation” caused to wrongly convicted sub-postmasters.

Her roles at the Post Office included handling complaints about its Horizon software, which was provided by Japanese firm Fujitsu.

More than 700 Post Office managers were prosecuted between 1999 and 2015, after the system made it seem like money was missing from branches. At the time, the company insisted Horizon was robust.

Ms van der Bogerd, who was played by Coronation Street actress Katherine Kelly in the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, had previously not spoken publicly since a 2019 High Court case.

At the time, Judge Peter Fraser criticised her testimony and said she “did not give me frank evidence, and sought to obfuscate matters, and mislead me”.

Jason Beer KC, lead counsel to the inquiry, challenged Ms van den Bogerd’s opening statement, as he accused her of not saying sorry for her own role in the scandal.

Ms van den Bogerd, who resigned as the Post Office’s business improvement director in 2020, said she regretted missing significant documents and apologised for “not getting to the answer more quickly”.

She said: “But with the evidence I had and the parameters of my role at the time, I did the best I could to the best of my ability.”

Ms van den Bogerd added: “I didn’t knowingly do anything wrong and I would never knowingly do anything wrong.”

Read more on this story:
Review ordered into another Post Office IT system

Scandal victim demands jail for those who denied her justice
Leaked Post Office recordings revealed

The inquiry heard that Ms van den Bogerd was sent an email in December 2010 informing her Fujitsu could remotely amend cash balances in branch accounts via Horizon.

She told the inquiry she had no memory of it and only became aware of the issue in a January 2011 email.

The inquiry was shown a transcript of a meeting that same month between her and sub-postmistress Rachpal Athwal, who was sacked after being wrongly accused of stealing £710 before being reinstated.

In the meeting, Ms van den Bogerd said Horizon could not be accessed remotely by anyone from the Post Office, without mentioning that Fujitsu could, the inquiry heard.

Mr Beer asked: “Are you saying that what you said overall there is accurate?”

Ms van den Bogerd replied: “So that is accurate. I go on to talk later about Fujitsu, I believe”. Mr Beer said it was inaccurate because she had not given the full picture.

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Scandal ‘tip of the iceberg’

The inquiry also heard that, prior to a High Court case in 2019, Ms van den Bogerd made a witness statement in 2018 in which she said the first she knew of the possibility of inserting transactions into the system remotely was in the year or so before.

Mr Beer told the inquiry: “That was false.”

She replied: “Well, at the time I didn’t think it was.”

Pressed further on the issue, she said the messaging on remote access was “constantly changing” and that colleagues had been “very strong” that such access was “impossible”.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘I have had breakdowns’

Ms van den Bogerd was also asked about an October 2014 email she and other senior staff were sent by Post Office media officer Melanie Corfield, which discussed what the response should be if anyone asked about remote access to Horizon.

The email said: “Our current line if we are asked about remote access potentially being used to change branch data/transactions is simply: ‘This is not and never has been possible’.”

Mr Beer said: “You knew that was false from multiple sources by then, by now, didn’t you?”

Ms van den Bogerd appeared flustered, before replying: “Clearly I was aware of that and just didn’t pick this up… it didn’t register with me at the time, but obviously from what we’ve discussed then this was incorrect terms of reference of a flow of information, yes.”

She added she was “certainly not trying to cover up… it wasn’t just me, there were other people party to the same information”.

Meanwhile, earlier in the hearing, the former executive said she agreed with Mr Beer that using words such as “exception” or “anomaly” to describe computer bugs had been an “attempt to control the narrative”.

The inquiry continues.

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