Hopes to be greeted by an adoring host of members have likely been dashed as some Tory MPs have questioned whether she will still be PM by the end of the year.
Nearly two dozen senior Conservative MPs have told Sky News they will not be attending after a tumultuous week that saw the pound hit a record low against the dollar and the Bank of England stepping in to prevent a pension funds collapse.
Ms Truss and her chancellor have doubled down in defending the £45bn of unfunded tax cuts that caused the economic turmoil, insisting it is necessary for growth.
The PM on Saturday said “rough decisions” were needed to boost growth and told the Sunday Telegraph she wants to “bring people with me on this journey”, insisting the “status quo isn’t an option”.
There are concerns the situation could get worse if the Bank of England is forced to hike interest rates to shore up the currency and keep inflation down.
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A series of polls taken this week have shown a massive drop in popularity for the Tories and a record high for Labour following the mini-budget.
The latest poll from Opinium showed 55% of voters disapprove of both Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng while Labour enjoyed a 19-point boost.
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And 75% of all voters think they have lost control of the economy. When it comes to Tory voters, 71% think they do not have the economy under control versus just 24% who believe they do.
Many of Ms Truss’ own MPs have been talking out against her economic plan and Tory grandee Michael Gove, who backed Rishi Sunak, is expected to demand the party changes course during eight official appearances at the conference.
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Truss arrives at Tory conference
Senior backbenchers told The Independent the PM has a matter of days to row back on tax and welfare cuts or a rebellion could see her removed from Downing Street by Christmas.
There are reports of letters going in to the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee from MPs calling for a vote of no confidence.
Under current rules she is safe from a leadership challenge for a year after her election but the 1922 executive could change the rules if demand from Tory MPs is overwhelming.
News on Saturday that Mr Kwarteng held a champagne reception with hedge fund managers just hours after the mini-budget was met with incredulity.
A source close to the chancellor denied he had provided guests with privileged information and said: “The government’s ambitions on lowering the tax burden are hardly a state secret.”
Liz Truss starts her first Conservative Party conference less than a month – 25 days – since becoming leader, all the more notable given 11 of those days were spent in official mourning for the death of the Queen.
Also notable in that time is that the government spent upwards of £160 billion, Sterling collapsed to the lowest level since 1985, UK is now at threat of downgrade by credit rating agencies, swathes of cheaper mortgages have disappeared from the market, the Bank of England has done an emergency intervention to save pension funds and the Tories have recorded their worst opinion poll rating for YouGov since the company was founded in the late 90s.
Everybody – Tory MPs, institutions, voters looking at the economic turmoil to come – is anxious.
Ms Truss’s most important job is to show the county and her party whose side she is on.
Which is why the story tonight from the Sunday Times about her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is so damaging.
On the day of the mini-budget, where he cut taxes for the richest, he went to a hedge fund party hosted by Andrew Law, Tory donor. 30 donors and financiers were there as he went round the top.
I’ve spoken to someone who has been at events such as these recently. They are amazed at just how casual Kwarteng is about spraying bold, potentially market moving views around such events, on topics such as the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.
Some in the City worry such talk undermines the credibility of the UK’s independent financial institutions, after the watchdog OBR and Treasury expertise already came in the firing line. Careless talk costs credibility.
Another difficult moment, one of just many.
Many Tories think Liz Truss now needs to reset with her party this week to survive.
‘The worst is yet to come’
Opposition parties used the opening of the Conservative conference to hit out at the Tories, with the SNP saying the worst is yet to come.
The SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford said: “It’s been a disastrous first few weeks of her premiership but if the rhetoric from the Tories is to be believed, the worst of this Truss government is yet to come.”
His comments came after a key ally of Ms Truss’, Levelling Up Secretary Simon Clarke, signalled ministers are looking to shrink the overall size of the state alongside falling tax cuts.
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Truss acknowledges ‘some disruption’
And Sir Keir Starmer said it was “unacceptable” voters nor MPs had had any say on the new economic measures announced.
“The economy is not a laboratory experiment for the maddest scientists of the Conservative Party,” the Labour leader wrote in the Sunday Telegraph.
“The pain about to be inflicted on the whole country is the result of a prime minister and a chancellor wedded to a disastrous ideology.”
The conference will open today with a tribute to the Queen but it is Mr Kwarteng’s speech on Monday and Ms Truss’ closing speech on Wednesday that will command the political attention.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it carried out a “precise strike” on Hezbollah’s “central headquarters”, which it claimed was “embedded under residential buildings in the heart of the Dahieh in Beirut”.
The first wave of attacks shook windows across the city and sent thick clouds of smoke billowing into the air.
While Israel stressed it had been a “precise” strike, preliminary figures from Lebanon’s health ministry confirmed at least six other people were killed and 91 were wounded.
Israel said Nasrallah was the intended target and initially there were claims he had survived.
However, after several hours of confusion, his death was confirmed by Israel.
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“Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorise the world,” the IDF said.
Hours later, a defiant Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death but vowed their fight with Israel would continue after confirming they had fired upon sites in northern Israel.
“The leadership of Hezbollah pledges to the highest, holiest, and most precious martyr in our path full of sacrifices and martyrs to continue its jihad in confronting the enemy, supporting Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast and honourable people,” they said.
Alongside claiming to have killed Nasrallah, the IDF said it had killed a number of other commanders, including Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front.
The country’s military said the strike was carried out while Hezbollah leadership met at their underground headquarters in Dahieh.
In the aftermath of the most recent attacks, an Israeli military spokesperson declined to comment on whether US-made Mark 84 heavy bombs were used in the strike against Nasrallah.
“The strike was conducted while Hezbollah’s senior chain of command were operating from the headquarters and advancing terrorist activities against the citizens of the State of Israel,” Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said in a media briefing.
He continued: “We hope this will change Hezbollah’s actions.”
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Hezbollah leader killed says IDF
He added the number of civilian casualties was unclear but blamed Hezbollah for positioning itself in residential areas.
“We’ve seen Hezbollah carry out attacks against us for a year. It’s safe to assume that they are going to continue carrying out their attacks against us or try to,” he said.
Meanwhile, Iran said it was in constant contact with Hezbollah and other allies to determine its “next step”, but Reuters reported the country’s supreme leader was transferred to a secure location in light of the latest attack.
Speaking after the attack, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Muslims “to stand by the people of Lebanon and the proud Hezbollah” and said: “The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront,” state media reported.
Nasrallah’s death will be a blow to Hezbollah as it continues to reel from a campaign of escalating Israeli attacks.
Nasrallah is latest Hezbollah leader to fall
While Nasrallah’s death is certainly the most high-profile of recent attacks, it continues a trend of Israel targeting Hezbollah’s leadership structure.
Also on Saturday, in the early hours of the morning, the commander of the group’s missile unit and his deputy were killed in another Israeli attack in southern Lebanon.
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A Swiss teenage cyclist with “a bright future ahead of her” has died a day after suffering a serious head injury at the world championships.
Muriel Furrer crashed while competing on rain-slicked roads in the junior women’s road race in her home country.
The 18-year-old rider fell heavily on Thursday in a forest area south of the city of Zurich and was airlifted to hospital by helicopter, reportedly in a critical condition.
Race organisers announced on Friday she had died.
They said in a statement: “Muriel Furrer sadly passed away today at Zurich University Hospital.”
The UCI governing body for world cycling paid tribute to her in a statement on its website, entitled “The cycling world mourns the loss of Muriel Furrer”.
It read: “It is with great sadness that the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) and the Organising Committee of the 2024 UCI Road and Para-cycling Road World Championships today learned the tragic news of the death of young Swiss cyclist Muriel Furrer.
“With the passing of Muriel Furrer, the international cycling community loses a rider with a bright future ahead of her. We offer sincere condolences to Muriel Furrer’s family, friends and her Federation Swiss Cycling.”
Swiss Cycling said in a post on X: “Our hearts are broken, we have no words. It is with a heavy heart and infinite sadness that we have to say goodbye to Muriel Furrer today.
“We are losing a warm-hearted and wonderful young woman who always had a smile on her face. There is no understanding, only pain and sadness.”
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Furrer is the second Swiss cyclist to die in just over a year after crashing on home roads.
At the Tour de Suisse in June 2023, Gino Mader went off the road and down a ravine during a descent. The 26-year-old died from his injuries the next day.
“Obviously it is another tragic death,” Mr Senn said. “There are a lot of similarities, similar feelings. Today is about Muriel.”
Over the past 18 years Nasrallah has grown Hezbollah in his image, expanding its forces, building its infrastructure and significantly expanding its arsenal.
He wasn’t just the leader of Hezbollah, he was a global figurehead of anti-Israel resistance.
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With Iran’s help, Hezbollah became one of the best armed non-state militaries in the world.
It is now decapitated and in disarray.
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During the past decades Israel has also been at work, steadily gathering intelligence on Nasrallah and Hezbollah, building a vast database of information, an effort which arguably distracted them from better understanding the intentions of Hamas.
The intelligence successes of the past days have helped restore Israel’s reputation after the stunning failures on October 7.
Iran and Hezbollah must choose
This is a pivotal moment.
Iran and Hezbollah must now decide how to respond: fight, or backdown.
The strike also killed Ali Karaqi, commander of Hezbollah’s southern front and labelled as the second most wanted by the IDF.
It is still unclear who else died in the strike, but given the location and the presence of top officials, it seems likely that other senior figures would have been eliminated too.
Nasrallah will be replaced.
The assassination of enemy leaders can prove to be a short-term victory because they are often succeeded by someone more formidable than before, as witnessed by the killing of the former Hezbollah leader Abbas al Moussawi in 1992.
He was succeeded by Nasrallah.
The working assumption is that the group will respond with barrages of missiles into Israel, probably targeting Tel Aviv.
But Hezbollah’s command structure has been severely degraded by Israel.
Nasrallah had become isolated as the IDF had steadily killed commanders over a fortnight of scything airstrikes on their compounds in Beirut and elsewhere.
It will probably take time to co-ordinate a response and it will probably be done with Iranian guidance.
Nasrallah might be dead, but Hezbollah isn’t
Hezbollah is badly wounded, not just as a paramilitary force but in the eyes of the Lebanese people, many of whom are angry their country is now facing another period of devastating violence.
This might be a moment for more moderate voices within Lebanon, including the national armed forces, to step in.
As the war escalated over recent weeks, noticeable divisions emerged between Tehran and Nasrallah.
He remained an important ally, however, a trusted advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, and this will come as a personal blow to him.
Having resisted the opportunity to get involved so far, Iran might decide the time has come to take the gloves off and deploy what is left of the thousands of missiles they’ve provided Hezbollah with.
Alternatively, after such a difficult ten days, Tehran might conclude that this round of fighting needs to end and pull back with its main proxy still in some shape to rebuild and fight another day.
With such momentum behind Israel, Iran will also be concerned about its own fate and that of its smaller proxies in Iraq and Syria.
Ultimately, the reason for Hezbollah’s existence – to act as insurance against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – hasn’t changed, but if Tehran calculates its proxies can no longer act as that shield it might try to accelerate its nuclear programme.
Could a ground invasion follow?
The Israeli government has choices of its own: order a ground invasion of southern Lebanon or continue with an air campaign that has delivered such dramatic successes.
There will be strong and compelling voices in Netanyahu’s cabinet urging him to take advantage of the situation and send troops in, but Hezbollah is not defeated, thousands of its soldiers remain and they are likely hiding in the vast tunnel network under the hills across the border.
Even a limited ground invasion risks large loss of life, on both sides, and the potential Israel will be lured into something more prolonged than it intended.
Nasrallah’s death might change the dynamic in Gaza too.
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has clung on and rejected ceasefire attempts in the hope that Hezbollah and Iran would go to war with Israel, dragging its enemy into a multi-front and unwinnable conflict.
That might still happen, but just as Nasrallah became isolated, so too is Sinwar.
The much trumpeted “unity of arenas” has failed to join up.
The Middle East might often look chaotic to outsiders, but there are unspoken rules generally acknowledged and followed by belligerents.
For years Hezbollah and Israel acted within the unwritten but understood parameters of a shadow war.
Then, eleven months ago on 8 October, Hezbollah attacked Israel out of solidarity with Hamas.
Nasrallah tied Lebanon’s fate to Hamas, insisting that Hezbollah would only stop when the fighting ended in Gaza.
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The rules shifted as the crossfire escalated, but it remained broadly contained within boundaries understood by both sides.
Until two weeks ago, 17 September, when thousands of pagers started exploding across Beirut and Lebanon.
It is possible Nasrallah had concluded that Israel was war-weary, and he overestimated the domestic and international pressure Netanyahu was under to end the fighting.
He might have believed that Netanyahu had neither the will nor the support to open up another front.
He, like so many of us, maybe assumed US influence on Israel would prevail.