Liz Truss to face wretched week at Tory Party conference after mini-budget turmoil
Liz Truss is set to face a wretched week at the Tory Party conference after the disastrous reaction to Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting mini-budget.
The prime minister arrived in Birmingham on Saturday looking buoyant just hours before yet another injurious poll was released.
Hopes to be greeted by an adoring host of members have likely been dashed as some Tory MPs have questioned whether she will still be PM by the end of the year.
Nearly two dozen senior Conservative MPs have told Sky News they will not be attending after a tumultuous week that saw the pound hit a record low against the dollar and the Bank of England stepping in to prevent a pension funds collapse.
Ms Truss and her chancellor have doubled down in defending the £45bn of unfunded tax cuts that caused the economic turmoil, insisting it is necessary for growth.
The PM on Saturday said “rough decisions” were needed to boost growth and told the Sunday Telegraph she wants to “bring people with me on this journey”, insisting the “status quo isn’t an option”.
There are concerns the situation could get worse if the Bank of England is forced to hike interest rates to shore up the currency and keep inflation down.
A series of polls taken this week have shown a massive drop in popularity for the Tories and a record high for Labour following the mini-budget.
The latest poll from Opinium showed 55% of voters disapprove of both Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng while Labour enjoyed a 19-point boost.
And 75% of all voters think they have lost control of the economy. When it comes to Tory voters, 71% think they do not have the economy under control versus just 24% who believe they do.
Many of Ms Truss’ own MPs have been talking out against her economic plan and Tory grandee Michael Gove, who backed Rishi Sunak, is expected to demand the party changes course during eight official appearances at the conference.
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Truss arrives at Tory conference
Senior backbenchers told The Independent the PM has a matter of days to row back on tax and welfare cuts or a rebellion could see her removed from Downing Street by Christmas.
There are reports of letters going in to the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee from MPs calling for a vote of no confidence.
Under current rules she is safe from a leadership challenge for a year after her election but the 1922 executive could change the rules if demand from Tory MPs is overwhelming.
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News on Saturday that Mr Kwarteng held a champagne reception with hedge fund managers just hours after the mini-budget was met with incredulity.
A source close to the chancellor denied he had provided guests with privileged information and said: “The government’s ambitions on lowering the tax burden are hardly a state secret.”
Truss needs to reset if she is to survive
Liz Truss starts her first Conservative Party conference less than a month – 25 days – since becoming leader, all the more notable given 11 of those days were spent in official mourning for the death of the Queen.
Also notable in that time is that the government spent upwards of £160 billion, Sterling collapsed to the lowest level since 1985, UK is now at threat of downgrade by credit rating agencies, swathes of cheaper mortgages have disappeared from the market, the Bank of England has done an emergency intervention to save pension funds and the Tories have recorded their worst opinion poll rating for YouGov since the company was founded in the late 90s.
Everybody – Tory MPs, institutions, voters looking at the economic turmoil to come – is anxious.
Ms Truss’s most important job is to show the county and her party whose side she is on.
Which is why the story tonight from the Sunday Times about her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is so damaging.
On the day of the mini-budget, where he cut taxes for the richest, he went to a hedge fund party hosted by Andrew Law, Tory donor. 30 donors and financiers were there as he went round the top.
I’ve spoken to someone who has been at events such as these recently. They are amazed at just how casual Kwarteng is about spraying bold, potentially market moving views around such events, on topics such as the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.
Some in the City worry such talk undermines the credibility of the UK’s independent financial institutions, after the watchdog OBR and Treasury expertise already came in the firing line. Careless talk costs credibility.
Another difficult moment, one of just many.
Many Tories think Liz Truss now needs to reset with her party this week to survive.
‘The worst is yet to come’
Opposition parties used the opening of the Conservative conference to hit out at the Tories, with the SNP saying the worst is yet to come.
The SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford said: “It’s been a disastrous first few weeks of her premiership but if the rhetoric from the Tories is to be believed, the worst of this Truss government is yet to come.”
His comments came after a key ally of Ms Truss’, Levelling Up Secretary Simon Clarke, signalled ministers are looking to shrink the overall size of the state alongside falling tax cuts.
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Truss acknowledges ‘some disruption’
And Sir Keir Starmer said it was “unacceptable” voters nor MPs had had any say on the new economic measures announced.
“The economy is not a laboratory experiment for the maddest scientists of the Conservative Party,” the Labour leader wrote in the Sunday Telegraph.
“The pain about to be inflicted on the whole country is the result of a prime minister and a chancellor wedded to a disastrous ideology.”
The conference will open today with a tribute to the Queen but it is Mr Kwarteng’s speech on Monday and Ms Truss’ closing speech on Wednesday that will command the political attention.
World
Body pulled from mine after police cut off supplies to ‘smoke out’ thousands of illegal miners
A body has been recovered from a South African mine after police cut off basic supplies in an effort to force around 4,000 illegal miners to resurface.
The body has emerged from the closed gold mine in the northwest town of Stilfontein a day after South Africa’s government said it would not help the illegal miners.
Around 20 people have surfaced from the mineshaft this week as police wait nearby to arrest all those appearing from underground.
It comes a day after a cabinet minister said the government was trying to “smoke them [the miners] out”.
The move is part of the police’s “Close the Hole” operation, whereby officers cut off supplies of food, water and other basic necessities to get those who have entered illegally to come out.
Local reports suggest the supply routes were cut off at the mine around two months ago, with relatives of the miners seen in the area as the stand-off continues.
Relatives of miners and community members wait at the mine shaft. Pic: AP
A decomposed body was brought up on Thursday, with pathologists on the scene, police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe said.
It comes after South African cabinet minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni told reporters on Wednesday that the government would not send any help to the illegal miners, known in the country as zama zamas, because they are involved in a criminal act.
“We are not sending help to criminals. We are going to smoke them out. They will come out. Criminals are not to be helped; criminals are to be prosecuted. We didn’t send them there,” Ms Ntshavheni said.
An aerial view of a mineshaft. Pic: AP
Senior police and defence officials are expected to visit the area on Friday to “reinforce the government’s commitment to bringing this operation to a safe and lawful conclusion”, according to a media advisory from the police.
In the last few weeks, over 1,000 miners have surfaced at various mines in South Africa’s North West province, where police have cut off supplies.
Many of the miners were reported to be weak, hungry and sickly after going for weeks without basic supplies.
Illegal mining remains common in South Africa’s old gold-mining areas, with miners going into closed shafts to dig for any possible remaining deposits.
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Relatives of miners and community members wait near the mine shaft. Pic: AP
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The illegal miners are often from neighbouring countries, and police say the illegal operations involve larger syndicates that employ the miners.
Their presence in closed mines has also created problems with nearby communities, which complain that the illegal miners commit crimes ranging from robberies to rape.
Illegal mining groups are known to be heavily armed and disputes between rival groups sometimes result in fatal confrontations.
World
Ukrainian frontline commander warns: ‘The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem’
In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.
We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.
The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.
They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.
War latest: Russia ready to carry out ‘massive attack’
The captain known by his men as ‘Genius’
In the summer, Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, in Kursk
Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.
Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.
He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.
His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.
Captain Sasha Shyrshyn and Sky News chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay
‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’
Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.
We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.
“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.
He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.
Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.
Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.
“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.
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‘The world is scared of Russia’
It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.
The disguised American Bradley vehicle hidden in the forest
Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.
A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.
He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.
“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”
The American Bradley fighting vehicle that Ukrainian soldiers have found vital in their efforts
Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.
Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.
If President-elect Donald Trump cuts the supply of military aid, the Ukrainians will lose – it’s that simple.
US President-elect Donald Trump has been clear he intends to change his nation’s policy on the war in Ukraine. Pic: Reuters
Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.
“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”
Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.
He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.
“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.
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‘Losing will be not only our problem’
These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.
Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.
Barbed wire rolled out in the Sumy region ahead of expected fighting
Tank traps in the Sumy region
Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.
“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.
But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.
“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”
Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.
A weather warning has been issued for parts of Spain, as the country counts the cost of recent flooding.
The orange warnings are in place for parts of southwestern Spain – the area around Seville down towards Gibraltar.
Up to 8cm (3ins) of rain could fall within 12 hours, but the weekend looks much more settled in the country.
The latest warnings come just two weeks after flash flooding in Valencia and other parts of the country killed more than 200 people.
Malaga saw 14.2cm (5.6ins) of rainfall on Wednesday – Spain’s highest of the day – most of which fell in six hours.
All train services were halted in Malaga. Some flights have now resumed after the initial disruption.
Pic: Jamie Marchant
Emergency services in the province have moved 3,000 people from homes at risk of flooding close to the Guadalhorce River in the west of the city.
Jamie Marchant, 29, from Caerphilly in South Wales travelled to Malaga last Wednesday.
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He told Sky News that “debris” had been left behind by the recent rainfall in the region.
“Everyone is pitching in to clean up and some shops are opening as usual,” he added.
Orange warnings for the Valencia region in eastern Spain expired earlier on Thursday.
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The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.
Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.
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