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A little under four weeks as prime minister and it couldn’t really have gone worse for Liz Truss.

A mini-budget that precipitated a run on the pound (it has rallied a bit since), a £65bn emergency intervention by the Bank of England to prop up pension funds, and the withdrawal of nearly 1,000 mortgage deals from the market in anticipation of a big hike in interest rates later this year.

The Conservatives are experiencing their worst polling since the late 1990s and dozens of Tories are contemplating losing their seats at the next election.

The question for me in Birmingham this week is simple: Has Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget already sealed her fate?

British Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng (not pictured) visit Berkeley Modular, in Northfleet, Kent, Britain, September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/Pool

Ask Conservative MPs, and there is already a movement to try to oust her. Her insistence that she will not reverse any elements of her budget, regardless of the political toxicity or the clear economic risks, has led some MPs to say privately they want her to go.

“There needs to be policy change and personnel change,” said one senior Conservative.

“There are MPs saying she simply cannot lead us through a general election and MPs are putting forward suggestions to Sir Graham Brady about rule changes.

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“One scenario is that MPs decide a new PM and it’s not put to members.

“People are very anxious.”

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When I asked the MP if Ms Truss could survive until Christmas, they told me: “I think it’s probable that she will be gone by Easter.”

‘This plan is not going to work’

A former cabinet member also confirmed that colleagues were working up options to try to remove Ms Truss, as they whispered to me that they might now stand down at the next election in the face of almost certain defeat.

“This plan is not going to work,” they said.

For a new prime minister, who in typical times might expect a honeymoon period rather than the mutterings of divorce papers, such remarks are totally damning and speak to the extremely difficult predicament she now faces.

For, just as I’d never been to a more positive Labour Party conference than the one last week, I’ve never been to a Conservative one so shrouded not just in gloom about the electoral prospects of the party, but palpable anxiety about the Truss administration.

And this is about more than even the existential threat her policies could pose to the Conservative Party.

There is genuine fear too that she might “tank the economy”. As one former senior minister told me after the mini-budget: “It’s madness and I’m scared.”

Already MPs mutter that she will have to change – the policies and the personnel, or face a showdown with her party.

One MP told me there are easily 100 MPs who could rebel against her budget. The political toxicity of abolishing the top rate of tax for those earning over £150,000 a year, while mulling a real terms benefits cut for the four million at the bottom end of the income scale relying on universal credit, is plain to see for many MPs – even if Ms Truss wants to turn a blind eye.

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Devolved nations demand meeting with chancellor as Tory top team double down

But it’s not just the politics of her mini-budget, it’s the economics of it.

“We can’t ignore the cost of borrowing line item,” is how one former minister puts it. “What are the fiscal rules?”

If the prime minister can’t prove to the country, the markets, the Office of Budget Responsibility, and her backbenches that her government can achieve 2.5% growth, then the tax measures will have to be funded through debt.

And that has an obvious knock-on effect for families, with those on average mortgages having to potentially pay more in higher mortgage costs than in tax cut gains.

All of it is causing acute anxiety for MPs as they look at the polls and the prospects of their own re-election.

Plenty of those in the Sunak camp are keeping quiet for now, telling me that they want to let this play out and don’t want to take aim at Truss publicly – yet. But two outriders – former cabinet ministers Michael Gove and Julian Smith – are saying publicly what many are saying privately.

This is Mr Gove on Sunday: “I think there are two specific concerns that I have about the unfunded nature of tax cuts and about the 45p tax cuts, which we now have an opportunity to reflect on.”

“And I think it would be wise for us to recognise that they are neither the right economic nor the right political response to the situation that we face at the moment,” he told journalist Christopher Hope at a Daily Telegraph event.

When he was asked whether the policy should be reversed, he didn’t blink: “Yes”.

‘We cannot clap for carers one month and cut tax for millionaires months later’

And this was former chief whip Julian Smith in response to chairman Jake Berry’s warning on Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday show that Tories who voted against the mini-budget would lose the whip: “The first job of an MP is to act in the interest of their constituents and in the national interest.

“We cannot clap for carers one month and cut tax for millionaires months later.”

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All of it appears to be falling on deaf ears, with the PM and her team adamant that her plan is the right one and the mistakes over the past week were about the communications strategy not the policies.

As one of her key allies put it to me: “The PM gets this past week has been disruptive,” but “she firmly believes her plan for the economy is the right one.

“We’ve been stuck in a world of high taxes, cheap credit, and low growth for too long, with too much focus on tax and spend at the expense of growth.

“That status quo isn’t working, so we have to change course, otherwise we’re consigning the economy and country to long-term decline.

“We’ll do that and manage the public finances responsibly.”

Pro-growth, pro-investment, low-tax. That’s the mantra.

‘There is still so much wastage across various parts of the system’

The PM’s cabinet and top team are also supporting her.

One senior minister pointed out to me on the eve of the conference that such a big change in approach – the biggest shift in economic approach for a generation or more – was “always going to shock the markets” but the principles of leaving more money with individuals and businesses was the right one, as were the efforts – and we’re going to see what this looks like in practice later this year – to cut back on government costs (read: spending).

“There is still so much wastage across various parts of the system,” they said.

But will this government even get that far?

Ms Truss has four days in Birmingham to try and sell her plan not just to her members and MPs, but to the country.

The problem she has is that so many people seem to have stopped listening already.

A PM not for turning and a parliament in which many MPs now think they have nothing more to lose. Strap in.

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Israel announces military operation expanding in Gaza to seize ‘large areas’

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Israel announces military operation expanding in Gaza to seize 'large areas'

Israel is beginning a major expansion of its military operation in Gaza and will seize large areas of the territory, the country’s defence minister said.

Israel Katz said in a statement that there would be a large scale evacuation of the Palestinian population from fighting areas.

In a post on X, he wrote: “I call on the residents of Gaza to act now to remove Hamas and return all the hostages. This is the only way to end the war.”

He said the offensive was “expanding to crush and clean the area of terrorists and terrorist infrastructure and capture large areas that will be added to the security zones of the State of Israel”.

The expansion of Israel’s military operation in Gaza deepens its renewed offensive.

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that had begun in January ended in March as Israel launched various air strikes on targets across Gaza.

The deal had seen the release of dozens of hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, but collapsed before it could move to phase two, which would have involved the release of all hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

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26 March: Anti-Hamas chants heard at protest in Gaza

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had already issued evacuation warnings to Gazans living around the southern city of Rafah and towards the city of Khan Yunis, telling them to move to the al Mawasi area on the shore, which was previously designated a humanitarian zone.

Israeli forces have already set up a significant buffer zone within Gaza, having expanded an area around the edge of the territory that had existed before the war, as well as a large security area in the so-called Netzarim corridor through the middle of Gaza.

This latest conflict began when Hamas launched an attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages.

The ensuing Israeli offensive has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

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Anti-Hamas chants heard at rare protest in Gaza

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Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza

Aid group Doctors Without Borders warned on Wednesday that Israel’s month-long siege of Gaza means some critical medications are now short in supply and are running out, leaving Palestinians at risk of losing vital healthcare.

“The Israeli authorities’ have condemned the people of Gaza to unbearable suffering with their deadly siege,” said Myriam Laaroussi, the group’s emergency coordinator in Gaza.

“This deliberate infliction of harm on people is like a slow death; it must end immediately.”

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‘Liberation day is here’: But what will it mean for global trade?

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'Liberation day is here': But what will it mean for global trade?

“Liberation day” was due to be on 1 April. But Donald Trump decided to shift it by a day because he didn’t want anyone to think it was an April fool.

It is no joke for him and it is no joke for governments globally as they brace for his tariff announcements.

It is stunning how little we know about the plans to be announced in the Rose Garden of the White House later today.

It was telling that we didn’t see the President at all on Tuesday. He and all his advisers were huddled in the West Wing, away from the cameras, finalising the tariff plans.

Follow the events of Liberation Day live as they unfold

Three key figures are central to it all.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is the so-called ‘measured voice’. A former hedge fund manager, he has argued for targeted not blanket tariffs.

Peter Navarro is Trump’s senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing. A long-time aide and confidante of the president, he is a true loyalist and a firm believer in the merits of tariffs.

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His economic views are well beyond mainstream economic thought – precisely why he appeals to Trump.

‘Stop that crap’: Trump adviser Peter Navarro reacts to Sky News correspondent’s question over tariffs

The third key character is Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary and the biggest proponent of the full-throttle liberation day tariff juggernaut.

The businessman, philanthropist, Trump fundraiser and billionaire (net worth ranging between $1bn and $2bn) has been among the closest to Trump over the past 73 days of this presidency – frequently in and out of the West Wing.

If anything goes wrong, observers here in Washington suspect Trump will make Lutnick the fall guy.

What are Donald Trump’s tariffs, what is ‘liberation day’ and how does it all affect the UK?

And what if it does all go wrong? What if Trump is actually the April fool?

“It’s going to work…” his press secretary said when asked if it could all be a disaster, driving up the cost of living for Americans and creating global economic chaos.

“The president has a brilliant team who have been studying these issues for decades and we are focussed on restoring the global age of America…” Karoline Leavitt said.

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‘Days of US being ripped off are over’

Dancing to the president’s tune

My sense is that we should see “liberation day” not as the moment it’s all over in terms of negotiations for countries globally as they try to carve out deals with the White House. Rather it should be seen as the start.

Trump, as always, wants to be seen as the one calling the shots, taking control, seizing the limelight. He wants the world to dance to his tune. Today is his moment.

But beyond today, alongside the inevitable tit-for-tat retaliation, expect to see efforts by nations to seek carve-outs and to throw bones to Trump; to identify areas where trade policies can be tweaked to placate the president.

Even small offerings which change little in a material sense could give Trump the chance to spin and present himself as the winning deal maker he craves to be.

One significant challenge for foreign governments and their diplomats in Washington has been engaging the president himself with proposals he might like.

Negotiations take place with a White House team who are themselves unsure where the president will ultimately land. It’s resulted in unsatisfactory speculative negotiations.

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Treasury minister: ‘We’ll do everything to secure a deal’

Too much faith placed in the ‘special relationship’?

The UK believes it’s in a better position than most other countries globally. It sits outside the EU giving it autonomy in its trade policy, its deficit with the US is small, and Trump loves Britain.

It’s true too that the UK government has managed to accelerate trade conversations with the White House on a tariff-free trade partnership. Trump’s threats have forced conversations that would normally sit in the long grass for months.

Yet, for now, the conversations have yielded nothing firm. That’s a worry for sure. Did Keir Starmer have too much faith in the ‘special relationship’?

Downing Street will have identified areas where they can tweak trade policy to placate Trump. Cars maybe? Currently US cars into the UK carry a 10% tariff. Digital services perhaps?

US food? Unlikely – there are non-tariff barriers on US food because the consensus seems to be that chlorinated chicken and the like isn’t something UK consumers want.

Easier access to UK financial services maybe? More visas for Americans?

For now though, everyone is waiting to see what Trump does before they either retaliate or relent and lower their own market barriers.

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Bodies still remain among the ‘collapsed and inclining’ buildings in quake-hit Mandalay

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Bodies still remain among the 'collapsed and inclining' buildings in quake-hit Mandalay

A man inside Mandalay has told Sky News bodies remain under “collapsed and inclining” buildings after the Myanmar earthquake – as a woman was freed from rubble after 91 hours.

The local inside Myanmar said many of the structures in the city were wrecked or badly damaged after the 7.7 magnitude quake on Friday, adding: “There are some bodies, some dead bodies, that still remain and other destruction”.

Meanwhile, in a televised address, Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing said the number of dead had risen to 2,719 and is expected to exceed 3,000.

Some 4,521 people have been injured, while a further 441 are missing.

More than 10,000 buildings are known to have collapsed or been severely damaged in central and northwest Myanmar, the World Health Organisation said.

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Before and after: Myanmar earthquake

Smell of dead bodies near destroyed buildings

In Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, which was close to the quake’s epicentre, 50 children and two teachers were killed when their preschool collapsed, the United Nations said.

The local in the city told Sky News that “a lot of local assistance associations like charity groups are still struggling with digging out the corpses, the dead bodies, from the destruction”.

He said that “when we pass near the destructions, the collapsed building or very damaged building, we can smell” dead bodies.

“The smell of the dead bodies after four days… it still remains,” he said, before adding: “For the social assistance association… they need permission [to give aid] especially from the government.

“If they don’t have permission, then they cannot do anything.”

People sheltering in a makeshift tent camp in Mandalay. Pic: Reuters
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People sheltering in a makeshift tent camp in Mandalay. Pic: Reuters

He also said others in Mandalay are struggling after the earthquake, which followed the city being affected by cyclones, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the civil war in Myanmar – where a junta seized power in a coup in 2021.

“Some people, they say they have nothing at all,” the local added. “They have no more home, they have no more belongings, because its already damaged.”

Woman freed after 91 hours under rubble

It comes after the fire department in Myanmar’s capital freed a woman trapped under rubble 91 hours after the building collapsed.

The 63-year-old woman was freed early on Tuesday in Naypyidaw.

As the country continues to recover, a worker from the International Rescue Committee said people fear aftershocks and are sleeping outside on roads or in open fields.

Communities are struggling to meet basic needs such as access to clean water and sanitation, and emergency teams are working “tirelessly” to locate survivors and provide aid, the UN said in a report.

Rescue efforts have been complicated by the civil war, as rebel groups say the junta has conducted airstrikes, even after the quake, while NGOs fear that certain areas could be denied vital supplies.

“Myanmar’s military has a longstanding practice of denying aid to areas where groups who resist it are active,” said Joe Freeman, a researcher with Amnesty Myanmar.

“It must immediately allow unimpeded access to all humanitarian organisations and remove administrative barriers delaying needs assessments.”

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Myanmar earthquake leaves some areas almost completely destroyed

The quake was the strongest to hit the southeast Asian country in more than a century.

In neighbouring Thailand, rescuers are still scouring the ruins of a collapsed, unfinished skyscraper for any signs of life.

“There are about 70 bodies underneath, and we hope by some miracle one or two are still alive,” volunteer rescue leader Bin Bunluerit said.

Six human-shaped figures have been detected by scanners, said Bangkok’s deputy governor, Tavida Kamolvej.

Thirteen deaths have been confirmed at the building site, with 74 people still missing, while Thailand’s national number of dead stands at 20.

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