Tory conference is shrouded in gloom – has Liz Truss already sealed her own fate?
A little under four weeks as prime minister and it couldn’t really have gone worse for Liz Truss.
A mini-budget that precipitated a run on the pound (it has rallied a bit since), a £65bn emergency intervention by the Bank of England to prop up pension funds, and the withdrawal of nearly 1,000 mortgage deals from the market in anticipation of a big hike in interest rates later this year.
The Conservatives are experiencing their worst polling since the late 1990s and dozens of Tories are contemplating losing their seats at the next election.
The question for me in Birmingham this week is simple: Has Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget already sealed her fate?
Ask Conservative MPs, and there is already a movement to try to oust her. Her insistence that she will not reverse any elements of her budget, regardless of the political toxicity or the clear economic risks, has led some MPs to say privately they want her to go.
“There needs to be policy change and personnel change,” said one senior Conservative.
“There are MPs saying she simply cannot lead us through a general election and MPs are putting forward suggestions to Sir Graham Brady about rule changes.
“One scenario is that MPs decide a new PM and it’s not put to members.
“People are very anxious.”
Read more:
Liz Truss sticks by plan but admits mistakes – and says top-rate tax cut was chancellor’s idea
Labour surges to record lead in polls
When I asked the MP if Ms Truss could survive until Christmas, they told me: “I think it’s probable that she will be gone by Easter.”
‘This plan is not going to work’
A former cabinet member also confirmed that colleagues were working up options to try to remove Ms Truss, as they whispered to me that they might now stand down at the next election in the face of almost certain defeat.
“This plan is not going to work,” they said.
For a new prime minister, who in typical times might expect a honeymoon period rather than the mutterings of divorce papers, such remarks are totally damning and speak to the extremely difficult predicament she now faces.
For, just as I’d never been to a more positive Labour Party conference than the one last week, I’ve never been to a Conservative one so shrouded not just in gloom about the electoral prospects of the party, but palpable anxiety about the Truss administration.
And this is about more than even the existential threat her policies could pose to the Conservative Party.
There is genuine fear too that she might “tank the economy”. As one former senior minister told me after the mini-budget: “It’s madness and I’m scared.”
Already MPs mutter that she will have to change – the policies and the personnel, or face a showdown with her party.
One MP told me there are easily 100 MPs who could rebel against her budget. The political toxicity of abolishing the top rate of tax for those earning over £150,000 a year, while mulling a real terms benefits cut for the four million at the bottom end of the income scale relying on universal credit, is plain to see for many MPs – even if Ms Truss wants to turn a blind eye.
Read more:
A lesson from ‘Reaganomics’: Collision of theory and reality could prove fatal for PM and Tory party
Devolved nations demand meeting with chancellor as Tory top team double down
But it’s not just the politics of her mini-budget, it’s the economics of it.
“We can’t ignore the cost of borrowing line item,” is how one former minister puts it. “What are the fiscal rules?”
If the prime minister can’t prove to the country, the markets, the Office of Budget Responsibility, and her backbenches that her government can achieve 2.5% growth, then the tax measures will have to be funded through debt.
And that has an obvious knock-on effect for families, with those on average mortgages having to potentially pay more in higher mortgage costs than in tax cut gains.
All of it is causing acute anxiety for MPs as they look at the polls and the prospects of their own re-election.
Plenty of those in the Sunak camp are keeping quiet for now, telling me that they want to let this play out and don’t want to take aim at Truss publicly – yet. But two outriders – former cabinet ministers Michael Gove and Julian Smith – are saying publicly what many are saying privately.
This is Mr Gove on Sunday: “I think there are two specific concerns that I have about the unfunded nature of tax cuts and about the 45p tax cuts, which we now have an opportunity to reflect on.”
“And I think it would be wise for us to recognise that they are neither the right economic nor the right political response to the situation that we face at the moment,” he told journalist Christopher Hope at a Daily Telegraph event.
When he was asked whether the policy should be reversed, he didn’t blink: “Yes”.
‘We cannot clap for carers one month and cut tax for millionaires months later’
And this was former chief whip Julian Smith in response to chairman Jake Berry’s warning on Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday show that Tories who voted against the mini-budget would lose the whip: “The first job of an MP is to act in the interest of their constituents and in the national interest.
“We cannot clap for carers one month and cut tax for millionaires months later.”
Subscribe for free to the Sophy Ridge on Sunday podcast on Apple podcasts, Google podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker
All of it appears to be falling on deaf ears, with the PM and her team adamant that her plan is the right one and the mistakes over the past week were about the communications strategy not the policies.
As one of her key allies put it to me: “The PM gets this past week has been disruptive,” but “she firmly believes her plan for the economy is the right one.
“We’ve been stuck in a world of high taxes, cheap credit, and low growth for too long, with too much focus on tax and spend at the expense of growth.
“That status quo isn’t working, so we have to change course, otherwise we’re consigning the economy and country to long-term decline.
“We’ll do that and manage the public finances responsibly.”
Pro-growth, pro-investment, low-tax. That’s the mantra.
‘There is still so much wastage across various parts of the system’
The PM’s cabinet and top team are also supporting her.
One senior minister pointed out to me on the eve of the conference that such a big change in approach – the biggest shift in economic approach for a generation or more – was “always going to shock the markets” but the principles of leaving more money with individuals and businesses was the right one, as were the efforts – and we’re going to see what this looks like in practice later this year – to cut back on government costs (read: spending).
“There is still so much wastage across various parts of the system,” they said.
But will this government even get that far?
Ms Truss has four days in Birmingham to try and sell her plan not just to her members and MPs, but to the country.
The problem she has is that so many people seem to have stopped listening already.
A PM not for turning and a parliament in which many MPs now think they have nothing more to lose. Strap in.
World
Taliban internet blackout has created an extreme scenario in Afghanistan with far-reaching consequences
At Kabul International Airport, there are dozens of confused looking families.
Many are holding flowers, waiting and hoping their loved ones will touch down.
Others came here hoping to take-off but are now sitting bewildered in the hot sun.
After the Taliban imposed a nationwide shutdown of the internet, no one knows if any flights are still operating and no one can use their phones to find out.
The Taliban caught many in the country off-guard with their shutdown. File pic: West Asia News Agency via Reuters
“I am waiting for my brother from Australia,” one man tells me, “but I don’t know if he’s coming”.
Beyond the gates, the runway is full of grounded planes.
After hours of waiting on Tuesday, no international flights took off or arrived at Kabul Airport, despite some airlines scheduling departures.
The Taliban caught many in the country off-guard with their shutdown – reportedly even some of their own ministers.
Initially, there appeared to be no official indication of how long the shutdown might last or an explanation for why it was imposed.
A man tries to use Google on his smartphone in the Afghan capital. Pic: Reuters
On Wednesday, the Taliban government rejected reports of a nationwide internet ban, saying old fibre optic cables are worn out and are being replaced.
But, at the airport, people worry it could be indefinite. Others speculate about rumours it’s to do with security protocols and the movement of officials in the country.
No one knows, and the TV and radio stations they get their news from have not been providing the latest information.
Men try to connect their smart TV to the internet. Pic: Reuters
The banks are open but no one can get out money. An employee at the bank in our hotel in Kabul told us they haven’t been able to open their operating systems since Tuesday morning and that Western Union isn’t accessible either.
That’s hugely significant in a country where many are reliant on money sent back by relatives abroad and banks are already struggling with sanctions.
No one can call the police, no one can call an ambulance, and hospitals and medical services are wrestling with how to adjust too.
It follows more than a week of temporary connectivity issues in some parts of the country, with the northern region of Balkh among the first to be affected by a ban on fibre optic internet.
Read more: Internet ban ‘extinguishing the only light that still reaches us’
Taliban fighters ride on a pickup truck during celebrations marking the fourth anniversary of the US withdrawal. Pic: AP
In the last 10 days, we have been travelling across Afghanistan. People in Nangarhar, Kunar, Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat all expressed concern about possible impending blackouts, and we personally experienced a slowdown in connectivity in these places. But nothing as widespread or sustained as this shutdown which is nationwide.
Two weeks ago, the Taliban’s provincial government spokesman Haji Attaullah Zaid said leader Hibatullah Akhundzada had imposed a “complete ban” on cable internet access in Balkh.
“This measure was taken to prevent immorality, and an alternative will be built within the country for necessities,” Mr Zaid said.
It was said to be connected to concerns around pornography – but this was never officially stated by the Taliban.
We have tried to reach the government for comment via satellite phone but with no success.
No one knows how long the shutdown will last. Pic: Reuters
The blackout has disrupted phone services. In countries with limited telecom infrastructure, phone networks are often routed through fibre-optic systems which have now been disabled.
The lack of connectivity has raised immediate concern in the aid community. Amnesty International called it “reckless” and said the shutdown would have “far-reaching consequences for the delivery of aid, access to healthcare and girls’ education”.
After the Taliban banned school for girls over the age of 12, many in the country have been secretly studying online.
Read more from Sky News:
US government shuts down
Eurovision rebellion emergency vote
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Everyone we’ve spoken to seems dumbfounded.
During the previous temporary blackouts, the Taliban did warn more was to come. But no one appears to have anticipated this – not ordinary citizens, not foreign officials here in Kabul, not big business, not the airlines or the hospitals.
It is an indication of how quickly this country can turn and the power the Taliban has to disrupt and reshape its future.
Internationally, many are raising concerns that this is an attempt by the Taliban at widespread censorship and further restriction of girls’ education.
Whatever the intention of their move, it has created an extreme scenario: no one in this country can currently contact anyone – for an emergency, for a family member, or for guidance – creating a major information vacuum.
Princess Anne has placed a toy bear as a poignant tribute at a children’s memorial in Ukraine, during an unexpected visit to the war-ravaged country where she also met Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The King’s sister travelled to the capital Kyiv on Tuesday, at the request of the Foreign Office, in a show of solidarity with children and families facing the horrors of the Russian invasion.
The Princess Royal met Mr Zelenskyy to discuss the UK’s support for Ukraine and its ongoing resistance.
The Princess Royal and First Lady Olena Zelenska laid soft toys during a visit to a memorial for children killed in the war. Pic: PA
Anne’s secret visit, which was not publicised beforehand for security reasons, came just two days after a Russian aerial bombardment killed at least four people in Kyiv, including a 12-year-old girl, and injured at least 70 others.
The attack, which lasted more than 12 hours, was one of the heaviest in recent months.
The purpose of her trip was to highlight the traumatic experiences of children living on the frontline, Buckingham Palace said.
Joining First Lady Olena Zelenska at the children’s memorial, Anne left the teddy in tribute to youngsters killed in the conflict, saying her daughter Zara Tindall had the same bear.
As the 75-year-old princess stepped back after placing the traditional-looking teddy at the base of the memorial alongside scores of other cuddly toys, she told Mrs Zelenska: “That was one that my daughter had.”
Mrs Zelenska also left a bear in tribute.
Anne is the latest British royal to make a trip to Kyiv. Pic: PA
The site commemorates more than 650 children who have died since the start of the conflict in 2022.
In Kyiv, she also met female police and armed forces representatives and heard about their key role protecting women and children.
Visiting the Child Rights Protection Centre, she spoke to families and children who have been returned and reintegrated, and met some of those working to return more Ukrainian children.
Read more:
Putin issues defiant message over Ukraine
Moldova’s pro-EU party wins elections against Russia-leaning rivals
Princess Anne spoke to young people who lived under occupation. Pic: PA
The Princess Royal met Ukrainian war veterans relaxing in a salt therapy room at a rehabilitation centre. Pic: PA
More than 19,500 Ukrainian children have been forcibly transferred or deported by the Russian authorities to Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Princess Anne is the second working royal to visit Ukraine.
In April last year, the Duchess of Edinburgh was the first to go and bring a letter of support from the King.
Anne’s trip also follows that of her nephew Prince Harry, who made a surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital just over two weeks ago with a team from his Invictus Games Foundation.
Anne also visited a rehabilitation centre, where she met Ukrainian veterans returning from the frontline.
The King has met Mr Zelenskyy a number of times and marked the country’s independence day in August by sending a message of solidarity.
During Donald Trump’s recent state visit to the UK, Charles also took the opportunity to stress the importance of supporting Ukraine.
He told the US president in his banquet speech: “Today, as tyranny once again threatens Europe, we and our allies stand together in support of Ukraine, to deter aggression and secure peace.”
At least 69 people have been killed in a powerful 6.9-magnitude earthquake that rocked the central Philippines.
The centre of the quake, which knocked out power lines and sent people running out into the streets, was about 12 miles northeast of Bogo, a coastal city of about 90,000 people on the island of Cebu.
Civil defence official Raffy Alejandro told reporters that the city’s hospital has been “overwhelmed,” and that the number of dead remains “fluid”.
Earlier, authorities said at least 14 residents in Bogo had died. Another official said more than 150 people were injured.
The tremor was set off by movement in a local fault at a depth of three miles at around 10pm (3pm in the UK) on Tuesday.
Pic: AP
Gemma Villamor, head of the local disaster office, said earlier that in the town of Medellin, near Bogo, at least 12 residents died when the ceilings and walls of their homes collapsed, with some asleep at the time.
And in nearby San Remigio, vice mayor Alfie Reynes added that five people – including three coastguard members, a firefighter, and a child – were killed by collapsing walls while fleeing a basketball game.
He later told DZMM Radio: “It is raining heavily and there is no electricity so we really need help, especially in the northern part because there’s a scarcity of water after supply lines were damaged by the earthquake.”
Read more from Sky News:
US government shuts down after last-ditch votes fail
Trump gives Hamas peace deal deadline
Princess Anne makes surprise Ukraine visit
Medical teams in Cebu city, central Philippines, help the injured. Pic: AP
Pic: AP
Businesses and landmark buildings have suffered damage, including an old Catholic church in the town of Daanbantayan, and roads have shown deep cracks.
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology briefly issued a tsunami warning for Cebu and nearby provinces, but later lifted it after no unusual waves were detected.
The quake struck while Cebu and surrounding areas were still recovering from a severe storm that hit the central region days earlier, killing at least 27 people mainly from drownings and fallen trees, cutting power across cities, and forcing evacuations.
The Philippines, located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is highly prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
It also faces around 20 typhoons and storms annually, making it one of the world’s most disaster-prone nations.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment12 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024