Tory conference is shrouded in gloom – has Liz Truss already sealed her own fate?
A little under four weeks as prime minister and it couldn’t really have gone worse for Liz Truss.
A mini-budget that precipitated a run on the pound (it has rallied a bit since), a £65bn emergency intervention by the Bank of England to prop up pension funds, and the withdrawal of nearly 1,000 mortgage deals from the market in anticipation of a big hike in interest rates later this year.
The Conservatives are experiencing their worst polling since the late 1990s and dozens of Tories are contemplating losing their seats at the next election.
The question for me in Birmingham this week is simple: Has Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget already sealed her fate?
Ask Conservative MPs, and there is already a movement to try to oust her. Her insistence that she will not reverse any elements of her budget, regardless of the political toxicity or the clear economic risks, has led some MPs to say privately they want her to go.
“There needs to be policy change and personnel change,” said one senior Conservative.
“There are MPs saying she simply cannot lead us through a general election and MPs are putting forward suggestions to Sir Graham Brady about rule changes.
“One scenario is that MPs decide a new PM and it’s not put to members.
“People are very anxious.”
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When I asked the MP if Ms Truss could survive until Christmas, they told me: “I think it’s probable that she will be gone by Easter.”
‘This plan is not going to work’
A former cabinet member also confirmed that colleagues were working up options to try to remove Ms Truss, as they whispered to me that they might now stand down at the next election in the face of almost certain defeat.
“This plan is not going to work,” they said.
For a new prime minister, who in typical times might expect a honeymoon period rather than the mutterings of divorce papers, such remarks are totally damning and speak to the extremely difficult predicament she now faces.
For, just as I’d never been to a more positive Labour Party conference than the one last week, I’ve never been to a Conservative one so shrouded not just in gloom about the electoral prospects of the party, but palpable anxiety about the Truss administration.
And this is about more than even the existential threat her policies could pose to the Conservative Party.
There is genuine fear too that she might “tank the economy”. As one former senior minister told me after the mini-budget: “It’s madness and I’m scared.”
Already MPs mutter that she will have to change – the policies and the personnel, or face a showdown with her party.
One MP told me there are easily 100 MPs who could rebel against her budget. The political toxicity of abolishing the top rate of tax for those earning over £150,000 a year, while mulling a real terms benefits cut for the four million at the bottom end of the income scale relying on universal credit, is plain to see for many MPs – even if Ms Truss wants to turn a blind eye.
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But it’s not just the politics of her mini-budget, it’s the economics of it.
“We can’t ignore the cost of borrowing line item,” is how one former minister puts it. “What are the fiscal rules?”
If the prime minister can’t prove to the country, the markets, the Office of Budget Responsibility, and her backbenches that her government can achieve 2.5% growth, then the tax measures will have to be funded through debt.
And that has an obvious knock-on effect for families, with those on average mortgages having to potentially pay more in higher mortgage costs than in tax cut gains.
All of it is causing acute anxiety for MPs as they look at the polls and the prospects of their own re-election.
Plenty of those in the Sunak camp are keeping quiet for now, telling me that they want to let this play out and don’t want to take aim at Truss publicly – yet. But two outriders – former cabinet ministers Michael Gove and Julian Smith – are saying publicly what many are saying privately.
This is Mr Gove on Sunday: “I think there are two specific concerns that I have about the unfunded nature of tax cuts and about the 45p tax cuts, which we now have an opportunity to reflect on.”
“And I think it would be wise for us to recognise that they are neither the right economic nor the right political response to the situation that we face at the moment,” he told journalist Christopher Hope at a Daily Telegraph event.
When he was asked whether the policy should be reversed, he didn’t blink: “Yes”.
‘We cannot clap for carers one month and cut tax for millionaires months later’
And this was former chief whip Julian Smith in response to chairman Jake Berry’s warning on Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday show that Tories who voted against the mini-budget would lose the whip: “The first job of an MP is to act in the interest of their constituents and in the national interest.
“We cannot clap for carers one month and cut tax for millionaires months later.”
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All of it appears to be falling on deaf ears, with the PM and her team adamant that her plan is the right one and the mistakes over the past week were about the communications strategy not the policies.
As one of her key allies put it to me: “The PM gets this past week has been disruptive,” but “she firmly believes her plan for the economy is the right one.
“We’ve been stuck in a world of high taxes, cheap credit, and low growth for too long, with too much focus on tax and spend at the expense of growth.
“That status quo isn’t working, so we have to change course, otherwise we’re consigning the economy and country to long-term decline.
“We’ll do that and manage the public finances responsibly.”
Pro-growth, pro-investment, low-tax. That’s the mantra.
‘There is still so much wastage across various parts of the system’
The PM’s cabinet and top team are also supporting her.
One senior minister pointed out to me on the eve of the conference that such a big change in approach – the biggest shift in economic approach for a generation or more – was “always going to shock the markets” but the principles of leaving more money with individuals and businesses was the right one, as were the efforts – and we’re going to see what this looks like in practice later this year – to cut back on government costs (read: spending).
“There is still so much wastage across various parts of the system,” they said.
But will this government even get that far?
Ms Truss has four days in Birmingham to try and sell her plan not just to her members and MPs, but to the country.
The problem she has is that so many people seem to have stopped listening already.
A PM not for turning and a parliament in which many MPs now think they have nothing more to lose. Strap in.
The UK has stopped sharing some intelligence with the US on suspected drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean following concerns over America’s strikes against the vessels.
The US has reported carrying out 14 strikes since September on boats near the Venezuelan coast.
The death toll from the US attacks in the Pacific and the Caribbean Sea has risen to more than 70, as the US escalates a military build-up in the Caribbean Sea.
Downing Street did not deny reporting by CNN that the UK is withholding intelligence from the US to avoid being complicit in US military strikes it believes may breach international law.
Britain, which controls several territories in the Caribbean where it bases intelligence assets, has long assisted the US in identifying vessels suspected of smuggling narcotics based on intelligence gathered in its overseas territories in the region.
The USS Gravely destroyer arrives to dock for military exercises in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago on 26 October (AP Photo/Robert Taylor)
That information helped the US Coast Guard locate the ships, seize the drugs and detain their crews, CNN cited sources as saying.
But since the Trump administration started carrying out strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in early September, UK officials have become concerned their intelligence may be used to acquire targets for the attacks they believe may be illegal.
The intelligence-sharing pause began more than a month ago, CNN reported, quoting sources as saying Britain shares UN’s human rights chief Volker Turk’s assessment that the strikes amount to extrajudicial killing.
The reports could provide an awkward backdrop for a meeting between Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and her US counterpart Marco Rubio, expected on Wednesday at the G7 foreign ministerial summit in Canada.
A Number 10 spokesman did not deny the move when asked about the pause in intelligence sharing.
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“We don’t comment on security or intelligence matters,” the official said in response to repeated questions.
“The US is our closest partner on defence, security and intelligence, but in line with a long-standing principle, I’m just not going to comment on intelligence matters.”
He added that “decisions on this are a matter for the US” and that “issues around whether or not anything is against international law is a matter for a competent international court, not for governments to determine”.
A Pentagon official told CNN the department “doesn’t talk about intelligence matters”.
On Monday, US secretary of war Pete Hegseth said on X that the previous day, “two lethal kinetic strikes were conducted on two vessels operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations”.
He said: “These vessels were known by our intelligence to be associated with illicit narcotics smuggling, were carrying narcotics, and were transiting along a known narco-trafficking transit route in the Eastern Pacific.
“Both strikes were conducted in international waters and 3 male narco-terrorists were aboard each vessel. All 6 were killed. No U.S. forces were harmed.”
The United Nations human rights chief has described the US strikes on alleged drug dealers off the coast of South America as “unacceptable” and a violation of international human rights law.
Venezuela says they are illegal, amount to murder and are aggression against the sovereign South American nation.
World
Hundreds of Russian troops roll into key frontline Ukrainian city ‘Mad Max-style’, video appears to show
Hundreds of Russian troops have pushed deeper into eastern Ukrainian cities ‘Mad Max-style’, video released by the Russians appears to show.
The troops were seen rolling through the fog on motorbikes, with some on the roofs of battered cars and vans, apparently into the city of Pokrovsk, as Russia said its forces had also pressed further into Kupiansk on Tuesday.
Ukraine has acknowledged the presence of the troops on its territory, although Reuters news agency says that when the video was shot is yet to be verified.
The fight to gain hold of Pokrovsk, a strategic point on a large road and rail artery in the Donetsk region, has been raging for well over a year, in Vladimir Putin’s push to gain control of the whole of Ukraine’s industrial east.
Situation on the battlefield
The Donbas region comprises the neighbouring regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Ukraine’s military said around 300 Russian soldiers were now inside Pokrovsk and that Moscow had intensified efforts to get more troops in over the past few days – using dense fog for cover from drones.
It said Ukrainian forces were fighting Russian groups in the city.
Russian soldiers enter Pokrovsk in this screen grab obtained from a social media video released on 10 November, 2025. Pic: Reuters
Moscow says taking Pokrovsk, dubbed “the gateway to Donetsk” by Russian media, would give it a platform to push north towards the two largest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the Donetsk region – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Posting on X on Tuesday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “The front: our main focus right now is on the Pokrovsk direction and the Zaporizhzhia region, where the Russians are increasing the number and scale of assaults.
“The situation there remains difficult, in part because of weather conditions that favor the attacks. But we continue to destroy the occupier, and I thank every one of our units, every warrior involved in defending Ukraine’s positions.”
Destruction in Pokrovsk on 1 November. Pic: AP
Moscow and Kyiv have given different accounts of the battle for Pokrovsk. Moscow has for days said the city is surrounded, while Kyiv has denied Moscow controls the city and said on Monday that it was still able to supply neighbouring Myrnohrad.
Moscow has been threatening Pokrovsk for more than a year, attempting to surround it and threaten supply lines, rather than use the deadly frontal assaults it used to take the city of Bakhmut in 2023.
Russian war bloggers published a video on Tuesday showing what they said were Russian forces entering Pokrovsk along a road enveloped in fog, in what some Telegram users said looked like scenes from the Mad Max action film series, many of which are set in a post-apocalyptic landscape.
The date of the footage has not been independently verified.
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Satellite image shows armoured vehicles in the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, on 3 November, 2025. Pic: Reuters
Russia said it had taken 256 buildings and that Moscow’s forces were actively advancing to the northwest and east of Pokrovsk as well as around the railway station.
Russia has executed a pincer movement around the city and was close to closing it, open-source battlefield maps from both sides show, though Kyiv has counter-attacked around the town of Dobropillia.
Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said in an interview with the New York Post that Russia was concentrating some 150,000 troops in a push to capture Pokrovsk, with mechanised groups and marine brigades forming part of this drive.
Russia said its forces had taken full control of the eastern part of Kupiansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. A Russian commander, who gave his call sign as Hunter, said his troops had taken control of an oil depot on the eastern edge of Kupiansk.
In a video statement issued by Russia’s defence ministry, he said his forces had also taken control of a series of train stops along the railway to Kupiansk Vuzlovyi, a settlement around 6km (4 miles) south of the centre of Kupiansk itself.
Russia also said its troops had taken control of the settlement of Novouspenivske in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region.
Ukraine withdrew from some villages, including Novouspenivske, due to intense attacks involving more than 400 artillery strikes per day, RBC-Ukraine news agency cited a military spokesperson as saying.
Russia’s military says it now controls more than 19% of Ukraine, or some 116,000 square km (44,800 square miles), up from 18% nearly three years ago, according to Ukrainian maps tracking frontline changes.
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