It took 10 days for the most eye-catching and controversial element of Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget to unravel.
The abolition of the top 45p of rate next April is not going ahead.
And it matters not so much because of the impact the decision has on the economic plan – the tax cut was £2bn in a £45bn package of cuts – but because what it tells us about Liz Truss and her government.
The first phase of her reign is over already.
For, as little as 24 hours ago, the prime minister insisted that she was not going to change course.
On Sunday night two Truss-backing newspapers, the Express and the Mail, had it plastered across their front pages that the chancellor was going to “stay the course”.
All evening, cabinet ministers and other government figures I bumped into at the Tory conference insisted there would be no change of policy.
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What a cabinet minister told me would happen instead, was that the government would delay the finance bill – the piece of legislation required to pass Mr Kwarteng’s mini-budget – until the spring of next year to try to avoid a confrontation.
Overnight that resolve unravelled as the PM and chancellor, battered by a growing opposition led by former cabinet ministers Michael Gove and Grant Shapps, decided the policy had to go.
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The cabinet were told the next morning, even as some – like Sky News – were reporting the expected U-turn.
“I think it was the cumulative effect of pressure within and without the cabinet,” said one cabinet minister.
“It was best to get this out of the way ahead of his big speech and the PM’s on Wednesday.”
But lancing the boil on the matter of the top rate of tax does not cure the malady that has beset the Truss administration.
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‘We have a plan and we need to deliver it’
This was a prime minister who built her image with the public and the party as a leader who was not for turning, and who was prepared to be unpopular in pursuit of her goals.
She has now shown her opponents that the lady is for turning and the immovable is movable.
One cabinet minister, who privately didn’t much like the policy, told me the PM should have stuck to it in order to try and maintain credibility and protect her brand.
Floodgates are open
In reversing the policy, the PM has opened the floodgates and backbenchers will try to move her on lots of other policies too.
Already in their sight is the PM’s refusal to commit to Boris Johnson’s promise to uprate benefits by inflation rather than earnings in order to make sure four million low-income families and workers don’t have to take a real-terms benefits cut.
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What do young Tories think of Truss?
Ms Truss and her allies say the decision was the recognition of the political reality they faced with a party and a country opposed to the plan.
Attempt to calm the choppy waters
Her allies admit that the groundwork in selling the original package has been wanting in the rush to introduce the first batch of economic reforms – the tax cuts – to try to push for that 2.5% economic growth target in time for the next election.
Their hope is that the supply side reforms, coupled with the independent Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts, and medium-term fiscal plan will calm choppy waters and buy Ms Truss time.
But the political miscalculation to announce a cut to the top rate of tax in the midst of the worst cost of living crisis since the 1970s, only to then have to U-turn, is no doubt a deep body blow for this PM.
She wasn’t initially the first choice for leader amongst her MPs and already had a battle on her hands to stamp her authority on the party. A massive U-turn designed to build bridges with a divided parliamentary party and a deeply unconvinced public.
But some MPs here are quietly asking, is there any way back?
Two men have been arrested after a customer was stabbed to death inside a Lloyds bank.
The victim – a man in his 30s – was attacked at the branch in St Peter’s Street, Derby, at around 2.35pm on Tuesday.
He was pronounced dead at the scene, Derbyshire Police said.
A man in his 40s has been arrested on suspicion of murder, while another man in his 30s is being held on suspicion of assisting an offender. Both remain in police custody.
They were detained around 6pm at the same property in Western Road, Normanton.
Detective Inspector Tony Owen said: “No one else was hurt and while the investigation is at an early stage, at this time we are treating it as an isolated incident.”
The victim has not yet been formally identified, but police said his family had been made aware.
“Good luck, because it’s a shithole here,” a prisoner shouts as we walk around the grounds at HMP Foston Hall.
Other inmates described this women’s prison in Derbyshire as a “holiday camp”, even “rehab”.
There was no one homogenous view, but there is also not one type of prisoner here – it is home to both murderers and shoplifters.
We’ve come to talk to people ahead of the publication of the sentencing review in the coming days. It’s likely to recommend the scrapping of short sentences for some lower-level crimes, and suggest prison isn’t the best place to punish certain “vulnerable” groups of offenders, including women.
“My kind of theft, I nick chocolate from shops,” inmate Connie Parsons told us as we gathered in her cell.
She’s been convicted of shoplifting nine times and says she’s been in and out of prison since she was 15 years old.
“I normally only get four weeks, three weeks, two weeks. It’s a constant cycle of going out, committing crime,” she said.
Image: Connie has a teenage son but hasn’t seen him for years
At points, Parsons has been homeless and addicted to drugs.
“I used to just come to prison before to have a little lie down and get myself well… to keep myself safe,” she said. “But this prison, you’re not safe… I never self-harmed before I came to this prison. And now I self-harm quite a lot.”
She has a young teenage son on the outside. “I know this might sound harsh, but I think it’s got to the point now I don’t know what to miss about him. But I think about him every single day,” she said.
‘For lots of women, prison is the right place to be’
We put Parsons’ case to the prisons minister, Lord Timpson, who said it was “really sad to hear”, adding he sees “lots of people like Connie” in the prison system.
Pressed on how some will view Parsons as a repeat offender, perhaps deserving of prison, Lord Timpson said: “For lots of women, prison is the right place to be, but where there are certain circumstances, for example non-violent offences for women… you need to work out what is the right path to make sure they don’t commit further crime.”
Lord Timpson said for someone like Parsons, he’d like to see the use of an intensive supervision court or as he called it “problem-solving court”. These work by judges monitoring the progress of offenders on community sentences, offering “wraparound” support, including housing, help for addiction issues and mental health.
Image: Tilat Ajmal served less than three months
Prisoner leaves with jail on her CV
“I had a job, I ain’t got a job now,” said Tilat Ajmal.
Before she went to prison, Ajmal worked for the NHS as a cleaner for 18 years.
As we filmed, she was leaving jail after serving less than three months for smuggling an item into prison while visiting someone. It was her first offence.
Her bags were packed, and in them was a CV she’d prepared. But she didn’t seem hopeful.
“I think it’s a bit bad having a conviction, I’ve been working all my life,” she said.
“As soon as coming out of them gates, I think you just have hundreds and thousands of things going through your head.”
‘Just enough time to rip their lives apart’
After we filmed at the prison, Sky News joined a support session at a women’s centre in Nottingham. It offers mandatory services to people serving sentences in the community, and also those on probation or licence periods.
I asked a case worker to explain why certain women offenders should be considered unique in the criminal justice system.
“I think what happens when a man goes to prison is that there is usually a woman holding everything together,” said Rachel Strong.
“He will be released from prison, his home will still be there, his family. He may have lost his job but there will be someone there. He will come out to his support network in place.
“That woman is that support network – so when she goes to prison, there’s nobody holding that together. People will lose their homes, sometimes their children are taken into care.
“Usually when women are sent to prison it’s for short sentences. Not enough time for anything productive, just enough time to rip their lives apart.”
Image: Donna Pritchards
‘It’s like rehab’
“I don’t mind prison, it’s like rehab,” said Donna Pritchards, who has been to HMP Foston Hall three times.
“I know you get clean when you’re here, and I needed it.”
Drugs are ‘main issue’ in prison
Others told us it was “easy” to get hold of drugs inside jail, with one prisoner describing some leading a “life of luxury”, with jail being like a “holiday camp”.
Amanda Brewer, drug strategy lead, told us: “Illicit drugs are our main issue day to day in everything that we do.
“They’re the main drivers for violence, they can cause self-harm issues, they cause vulnerability.”
Prisoners are also “trading” prescription drugs between one another.
‘Prison is not a nice place to be’
As the government explores greater use of alternatives to custody and scrapping certain short prison sentences, I asked the prisons minister whether criminals might see their approach as a “soft touch”.
“Prison is not a nice place to be,” said Lord Timpson, “but they need to turn their lives around there.”
The government commissioned the sentencing review alongside the creation of the Women’s Justice Board because they have an overcrowding crisis across the prison estate. But they also fundamentally believe prison isn’t the best form of punishment for certain types of offenders.
Women offenders in England and Wales are likely to be disproportionately impacted by the recommendations made in the review.
That’s because we expect it to suggest the scrapping of certain short sentences. In 2022, the Prison Reform Trust found over half (58%) of terms given to women were for less than six months.
Women are also considered by ministers to be a “vulnerable” group, with prison having a knock-on impact on their lives and potential for reoffending. Many report being a victim of crimes like domestic abuse, and 55% of female prisoners are mothers.
After two days of rare and unique access to different parts of the criminal justice system, it’s clear many feel prison isn’t working for female offenders. But what exactly a greater use of alternatives to custody looks like will take some time to figure out.
New portraits of the King and Queen, commissioned to commemorate their coronation in 2023, have been unveiled.
The two separate full-length paintings of Charlesand Camilla were made by artists Peter Kuhfeld and Paul Benny, respectively.
Image: Pic: Reuters
The artists were personally chosen by the King and Queen, who were joined at the unveiling by Camilla’s daughter Laura Lopes.
Mr Kuhfeld, who has known the monarch for more than 40 years, added he hopes his depiction of Charles captured both “the man and the King”.
Mr Benny also said about the Queen: “She said nothing but wonderful things about it, more importantly Laura liked it – you know when the kids like it, you’re probably on the right track.”
Image: Pics: PA
Their portraits will be hung in the National Gallery until 5 June, before moving to their permanent home in Buckingham Palace’s Throne Room.