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There is a mounting risk that fuel prices could soon begin to rise again as major oil-producing countries ponder a big cut in output.

The Opec+ cartel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia among its main members, is expected by markets to reveal this week a collective target to reduce delivery by more than one million barrels per day.

The price of Brent Crude, which rose 4% on Monday in anticipation of such a cut, was up further during Tuesday’s trading – to just shy of $90 per barrel.

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Opec+ is responding to weaker demand for oil globally as economies tackle high inflation though there is pressure from the West to maintain supply to help tame the pace of price rises.

While the current Brent price remains far below the early Russia-Ukraine war highs of above $120 per barrel, the recent weakness of the pound would be expected to contribute to pressure on UK pump prices, potentially adding to the cost of living crisis again according to motoring organisation the RAC.

That is because wholesale fuel, like oil, is traded in dollars.

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‘Further pain at UK pumps’

RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams told Sky News: “The extent of the (Opec+) cuts will be crucial, as will compliance from member countries throughout October.

“But one thing’s for sure, it’s likely to cause further pain for drivers at the pumps in the UK, particularly with the pound so weak against the dollar.

“If the cost of a barrel were to climb back up to $100, drivers at the current exchange rate would very soon see forecourts displaying prices around 175p a litre again, which is 12p more than the current UK average.”

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How rising costs will affect you

Average pump prices are currently 163p for unleaded and 180p for diesel – the latter remaining higher because of the loss of Russian supplies.

The pound was infinitely higher in value versus the US currency, around the $1.25 level, when petrol and diesel costs were hitting record levels daily in the spring following the Russian invasion.

It slumped to an all-time low of $1.03 last week in the wake of the government’s mini-budget when financial markets balked at the volume of giveaways and level of borrowing required to fund the growth programme.

How the markets are performing

It had recovered to just shy of $1.14 by Tuesday morning. That has been credited to government U-turns since Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement to the Commons and a weakening in the historic level of dollar strength.

The reason cited for the weakening was data suggesting the US economy was slowing faster than expected, raising the prospect of a pause to sharp US interest rate hikes.

Stock markets also recovered some poise as investors left the safety of the dollar, with the FTSE 100 putting on 1.5% in early dealing to take the index above the 7,000 points mark.

The more domestically-focused FTSE 250 was 2% higher.

Energy and commodity stocks were among those to enjoy the best gains as prices recovered from their recent recession -induced slump.

Opec sources told the Reuters news agency that voluntary output cuts by individual members could come on top of the group production reductions.

That being the case, it would amount to the largest output reduction since the start of the COVID pandemic in early 2020.

However, there were signs that the markets were yet to fully shrug off the fallout from the mini-budget that saw UK borrowing costs soar.

There were clear concerns around the UK’s credibility when the government raised £2.5bn on the bond markets.

The 0.5% of the 2061 (40-year) gilt on offer was sold at an average yield of 3.371%.

While that was the highest yield for any gilt sold at auction since 2014, it came in below that for a 30-year green bond syndicated last week.

It drew bids worth 1.97 times the volume on offer – the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since March.

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Christmas food price shock looms, chancellor warned

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Christmas food price shock looms, chancellor warned

Food inflation will rise to 6% by the end of the year – posing a “significant challenge” to household budgets in the run-up to Christmas, industry leaders have predicted.

The British Retail Consortium is warning that the chancellor risks “fanning the flames of inflation” if she hikes taxes in the coming budget.

Despite intense price competition between supermarket chains, the BRC has sounded the alarm over the pace of grocery price hikes.

As of this month, food inflation has risen 4% year on year – its highest level since February 2024.

The BRC said this increase is linked to global factors, such as high demand and crop struggles.

Beef, chicken and tea prices are among those that have risen the most this year – but some of the blame is being laid squarely at the chancellor’s door too.

The BRC said it was inevitable that a £7bn burden, through changes to employers’ national insurance contributions and minimum pay rules after last October’s budget, had been partly passed on to customers in the form of higher prices.

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Will we see tax rises in next budget?

It published the results of a survey of retail industry finance chiefs to illustrate its point – that nerves about what Ms Reeves’s second budget could bring were not helping companies invest in either new employment or prices.

Business was promised it would be spared additional pain after it was put on the hook for the bulk of the chancellor’s tax-raising measures last year.

However, speculation is now rife over who will feel the pain this autumn as she juggles a deterioration in the public finances.

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Options for wealth tax

A widening black hole is estimated at around £20bn.

The cost of servicing government debt has risen since the last budget, while U-turns on welfare reforms and winter fuel payment cuts have made her job even harder – making further tax-raising measures inevitable.

The survey of chief financial officers for the BRC showed the biggest current fear ahead was for the “tax and regulatory burden”.

Two-thirds of the CFOs predicted further price rises in the coming year, at a time when the headline rate inflation already remains stuck way above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

It currently stands at 3.6%.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: “Retail was squarely in the firing line of the last budget, with the industry hit by £7bn in new costs and taxes.

“Retailers have done everything they can to shield their customers from higher costs, but given their slim margins and the rising cost of employing staff, price rises were inevitable.

“The consequences are now being felt by households as many struggle to cope with the rising cost of their weekly shop.

“It is up to the chancellor to decide whether to fan the flames of inflation, or to support the everyday economy by backing the high street and the local jobs they provide.”

She concluded: “Retail accounts for 5% of the economy yet currently pays 7.4% of business taxes and a whopping 21% of all business rates.

“It is vital the upcoming reforms offer a meaningful reduction in retailers’ rates bill, and ensures no store pays more as a result of the changes.”

The Treasury has been approached for comment.

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US Federal Reserve defies calls from Donald Trump to cut interest rate

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US Federal Reserve defies calls from Donald Trump to cut interest rate

The Federal Reserve has defied calls from US President Donald Trump for a cut to the interest rate by leaving it unchanged.

The decision means it has an effective rate of 4.3%, where it has remained after the central bank, known as the Fed, reduced it three times last year.

“We’re keeping the rates high, and it’s hurting people from buying houses,” Mr Trump told reporters. “All because of the Fed.”

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Mr Trump has repeatedly been asked whether he would fire Fed chair Jerome Powell if he failed to heed his demand to cut the rate.

In June, the US president labelled Mr Powell a “stupid person” after the Fed decided not to change rates. Then less than two weeks later, in a further attack, he said the Fed’s chair should “ashamed” and would “love” him to resign.

The US president has spent months verbally attacking Mr Powell.

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Fed chair has ‘done a bad job’, says Trump

There were clear tensions between the pair last Thursday as they toured the Federal Reserve in Washington DC, which is undergoing renovations.

When taking questions, Mr Trump said: “I’d love him to lower interest rates,” then laughed and slapped Powell’s arm.

Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
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There were clear tensions between the US President and Mr Powell during last week’s visit to the Federal Reserve. Pic: Reuters

The US president also challenged him, in front of reporters, about an alleged overspend on the renovations and produced paperwork to prove his point. Mr Powell shook his head as Trump made the claim.

When Mr Trump was asked what he would do as a real estate mogul if this happened to one of his projects, he said he’d fire his project manager – seemingly in reference to Mr Powell.

Donald Trump challenges Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about the cost of renovations
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Donald Trump challenged Mr Powell in front of reporters. Pic: Reuters

Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.

The Fed has expressed concern about the impact of Mr Trump’s signature economic policy of implementing new tariffs, taxes on imports to the US.

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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know

On Wednesday, the president said he was still negotiating with India on trade after announcing the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country from Friday.

Mr Trump also signed an executive order on Wednesday implementing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff amount to 50%, excluding certain products, including oil and precious metals.

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The committee which sets rates voted 9 to 2 to keep the benchmark rate steady, the two dissenters were appointees of President Trump who believe monetary policy is too tight.

In a policy statement to explain their decision, the Federal Reserve said that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated” but growth “moderated in the first half of the year,” possibly bolstering the case to lower rates at a future meeting.

Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, described the rate decision as a “kind of a nothing burger” and it was “widely expected”.

Tony Welch, chief investment officer at SignatureFD, agreed that it was “broadly as expected”. He added: “That explains why you’re not seeing a lot of movement in the market right now because there’s nothing that’s surprising.”

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Apollo charges in for stake in £7bn petrol retailer Motor Fuel Group

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Apollo charges in for stake in £7bn petrol retailer Motor Fuel Group

The investment giant Apollo Global Management is close to snapping up a stake in Motor Fuel Group (MFG), one of Britain’s biggest petrol forecourt empires, in a deal valuing it about £7bn.

Sky News has learnt that Apollo could announce as soon as Thursday that it has agreed to buy a large minority stake in MFG from Clayton Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), its current majority-owner.

The transaction will come after several months of talks involving CD&R and a range of prospective investors in a company which is rapidly expanding its presence in the electric vehicle charging infrastructure arena.

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Banking sources said there had been a “large appetite” to invest in the next phase of MFG’s growth, with CD&R having built the company from a mid-sized industry player over the course of more than a decade.

Lazard and Royal Bank of Canada are understood to be advising on the deal.

A stake of roughly 25-30% in MFG has been expected to change hands during the process, with Apollo’s investment said to be broadly in that range.

MFG is the largest independent forecourt operator in the UK, having grown from 360 sites at the point of CD&R’s acquisition of the company.

It trades under a number of brands, including Esso and Shell.

CD&R, which also owns the supermarket chain Morrisons, united MFG’s petrol forecourt businesses with that of the grocer in a £2.5bn transaction, which completed nearly 18 months ago.

MFG now comprises roughly 1,200 sites across Britain, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of about £700m anticipated in this financial year.

It is now focused on its role in the energy transition, with hundreds of electric vehicle charging points installed across its network, and growing its high-margin foodservice offering.

MFG has outlined plans to invest £400m in EV charging, and is now the second-largest ultra-rapid player in the UK – which delivers 100 miles of range in ten minutes – with close to 1,000 chargers.

It aims to grow that figure to 3,000 by 2030.

CD&R, which declined to comment on Wednesday afternoon, will retain a controlling stake in MFG after any stake sale, while Morrisons also holds a 20% interest in the company.

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Bankers expect that the minority deal with Apollo will be followed a couple of years later with an initial public offering on the London stock market.

CD&R invested in MFG in 2015, making its investment a long-term one by the standards of most private equity holding periods.

The sale of a large minority stake at a £7bn enterprise valuation will crystallise a positive return for the US-based buyout firm.

CD&R and its investors have already been paid hundreds of millions of pounds in dividends from MFG, having seen its earnings grow 14-fold since the original purchase.

Morrisons’ rival, Asda, has undertaken a similar transaction with its petrol forecourts, with EG Group acquiring the Leeds-based grocer’s forecourt network.

EG Group, which along with Asda is controlled by private equity firm TDR Capital, is now being prepared for a listing in the US.

Apollo declined to comment.

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