There is a mounting risk that fuel prices could soon begin to rise again as major oil-producing countries ponder a big cut in output.
The Opec+ cartel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia among its main members, is expected by markets to reveal this week a collective target to reduce delivery by more than one million barrels per day.
The price of Brent Crude, which rose 4% on Monday in anticipation of such a cut, was up further during Tuesday’s trading – to just shy of $90 per barrel.
Opec+ is responding to weaker demand for oil globally as economies tackle high inflation though there is pressure from the West to maintain supply to help tame the pace of price rises.
While the current Brent price remains far below the early Russia-Ukraine war highs of above $120 per barrel, the recent weakness of the pound would be expected to contribute to pressure on UK pump prices, potentially adding to the cost of living crisis again according to motoring organisation the RAC.
That is because wholesale fuel, like oil, is traded in dollars.
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‘Further pain at UK pumps’
RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams told Sky News: “The extent of the (Opec+) cuts will be crucial, as will compliance from member countries throughout October.
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“But one thing’s for sure, it’s likely to cause further pain for drivers at the pumps in the UK, particularly with the pound so weak against the dollar.
“If the cost of a barrel were to climb back up to $100, drivers at the current exchange rate would very soon see forecourts displaying prices around 175p a litre again, which is 12p more than the current UK average.”
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How rising costs will affect you
Average pump prices are currently 163p for unleaded and 180p for diesel – the latter remaining higher because of the loss of Russian supplies.
The pound was infinitely higher in value versus the US currency, around the $1.25 level, when petrol and diesel costs were hitting record levels daily in the spring following the Russian invasion.
It slumped to an all-time low of $1.03 last week in the wake of the government’s mini-budget when financial markets balked at the volume of giveaways and level of borrowing required to fund the growth programme.
How the markets are performing
It had recovered to just shy of $1.14 by Tuesday morning. That has been credited to government U-turns since Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement to the Commons and a weakening in the historic level of dollar strength.
The reason cited for the weakening was data suggesting the US economy was slowing faster than expected, raising the prospect of a pause to sharp US interest rate hikes.
Stock markets also recovered some poise as investors left the safety of the dollar, with the FTSE 100 putting on 1.5% in early dealing to take the index above the 7,000 points mark.
The more domestically-focused FTSE 250 was 2% higher.
Energy and commodity stocks were among those to enjoy the best gains as prices recovered from their recent recession -induced slump.
Opec sources told the Reuters news agency that voluntary output cuts by individual members could come on top of the group production reductions.
That being the case, it would amount to the largest output reduction since the start of the COVID pandemic in early 2020.
However, there were signs that the markets were yet to fully shrug off the fallout from the mini-budget that saw UK borrowing costs soar.
There were clear concerns around the UK’s credibility when the government raised £2.5bn on the bond markets.
The 0.5% of the 2061 (40-year) gilt on offer was sold at an average yield of 3.371%.
While that was the highest yield for any gilt sold at auction since 2014, it came in below that for a 30-year green bond syndicated last week.
It drew bids worth 1.97 times the volume on offer – the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since March.
Poundland will halt rent payments at hundreds of its shops if a restructuring of the ailing discount retailer is approved by creditors later this summer.
Sky News has learnt that Poundland’s new owner, the investment firm Gordon Brothers, is proposing to halt all rent payments at so-called Category C shops across the country.
According to a letter sent to creditors in the last few days, roughly 250 shops have been classed as Category C sites, with rent payments “reduced to nil”.
Poundland will have the right to terminate leases with 30 days’ notice at roughly 70 of these loss-making stores – classed as C2 – after the restructuring plan is approved, and with 60 days’ notice at about 180 more C2 sites.
The plan also raises the prospect of landlords activating break clauses in their contracts at the earliest possible opportunity if they can secure alternative retail tenants.
In addition to the zero-rent proposal, hundreds of Poundland’s stores would see rent payments reduced by between 15% and 75% if the restructuring plan is approved.
The document leaves open the question of how many shops will ultimately close under its new owners.
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A convening hearing has been scheduled for next month, while a sanction hearing, at which creditors will vote on the plan, is due to occur on or around August 26, according to one source.
The discounter was sold last week for a nominal sum to Gordon Brothers, the former owner of Laura Ashley, amid mounting losses suffered by its Warsaw-listed owner, Pepco Group.
The UK’s cost of living crisis hangover is facing fresh pressure from the Israel-Iran conflict and growing tensions across the Middle East.
Whenever the region, particularly a major oil-producing country, is embroiled in some kind of fracas, the potential consequences are first seen in global oil prices.
The Middle East accounts for a third of world output.
Iran’s share of the total is only about 3%, but it is the second-largest supplier of natural gas.
Add to that its control of the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route, and you can understand why any military action involving Iran has huge implications for the global economy at a time when a US-inspired global trade war is already playing out.
What’s happened to oil prices?
Global oil prices jumped by up to 13% on Friday as the Israel-Iran conflict ramped up.
It was the biggest one-day leap seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which gave birth to the energy-driven cost-of-living crisis.
From lows of $64 (£47) a barrel for Brent crude, the international benchmark, earlier this month, the cost is currently 15% higher.
Iran ships all its oil to China because of Western sanctions, so the world’s second-largest economy would have the most to lose in the event of disruption.
Should that happen, China would need to replace that oil by buying elsewhere on the international market, threatening higher prices.
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How the Middle East conflict escalated
How are natural gas prices holding up?
UK day-ahead prices are 15% up over the past week alone.
Europe is more dependent on Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) these days because of sanctions against Russia.
The UK is particularly exposed due to the fact that we have low storage capacity and rely so much on gas-fired power to keep the lights on and for heating.
The day-ahead price, measured in pence per therm (I won’t go into that), is at 93p on Monday.
It sounds rather meaningless until you compare it with the price seen less than a week ago – 81p.
The higher sum was last seen over the winter – when demand is at its strongest.
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Aftermath of Iranian missile strike in northern Israel
What are the risks to these prices?
Market experts say Brent crude would easily exceed $100 (£74) a barrel in the event of any Iranian threats to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz – the 30-mile wide shipping lane controlled by both Iran and Oman.
While Iran has a history of disrupting trade, analysts believe it will not want to risk its oil and gas income through any blockade.
What do these price increases mean for the UK?
There are implications for the whole economy at a time when the chancellor can least afford it, as she bets big on public sector-led growth for the economy.
We can expect higher oil, gas and fuel costs to be passed on down supply chains – from the refinery and factory – to the end user, consumers. It could affect anything from foodstuffs to even fake tan.
Increases at the pumps are usually the first to appear – probably within the next 10 days. Prices are always quick to rise and slow to reflect easing wholesale costs.
Energy bills will also take in the gas spike, particularly if the wholesale price rises are sustained.
The energy price cap from September – and new fixed-term price deals – will first reflect these increases.
But energy price rises are an inflation risk and a potential threat to future interest rate cuts.
While LSEG data shows financial markets continuing to expect a further two interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year, the rate-setting committee will be reluctant to cut if the pace of price growth is led higher than had been expected.
At a time when employers are grappling with higher taxes and minimum pay thresholds, and consumers a surge in bills following the ‘awful April’ hikes to council tax, water and other essentials, a fresh energy-linked inflation spike is the last thing anyone needs.
The cost of rural crime in Wales is at its highest in more than a decade, a new report has revealed.
Last year, rural crime cost an estimated £2.8m in Wales, according to insurance provider NFU Mutual.
That’s an 18% increase on the previous year, with Wales the only UK nation to have seen a rise.
For farmers like Caryl Davies, that makes their work harder.
The 21-year-old farms on a beef and sheep farm in Pembrokeshire.
She told Sky News that having the quad bike stolen from her family farm last August had made them feel “really unsafe at home”.
Image: Caryl Davies farms in North Pembrokeshire
The fact it happened in such a rural area was a “really big shock” for Ms Davies and her family.
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“We’d rely on the bike day in day out, to look after our cows and sheep, and it’s had a really negative impact on us,” she said.
The cost of replacing a bike exactly like theirs would be “close to £10,000”.
“They’re a really expensive piece of kit, but you can’t be without them, especially in these rural areas where we’ve got the mountain and maybe places that aren’t very accessible,” she added.
“The bike is totally crucial for our day-to-day running of the farm.”
Image: Caryl Davies
The incident was caught on camera in the calving shed, but the Davies family have since invested in an enhanced CCTV system. That comes at an additional cost.
“For some farmers, this is spare money that we haven’t really got,” Ms Davies added.
“Farming is hard enough as it is, without people stealing your things and having to spend this extra money on making your home farm safe.”
The total cost of rural crime across the UK has fallen since 2023 – down from £52.8m to £44.1m.
Quad bike and All Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) remained the top target for thieves during the past year, NFU Mutual’s figures show.
James Bourne farms in Pontypool, Torfaen, and claims to have had over 200 sheep stolen from common land adjoining his farm over a four-year period.
The 32-year-old told Sky News that losing sheep from his herd was a “big hit” on his business as well as the young family he is trying to support.
“The way agriculture is at the moment anyway, we’re struggling to make ends meet, and any profit that is in it is obviously being taken from me,” he said.
“So I really need to try and find out and get to the bottom of where they’re going because obviously it’s an ongoing issue.”
Image: James Bourne
Andrew Chalk, from NFU Mutual, told Sky News that while there had been a “significant drop” across the UK, there were “worrying signs”.
“In Wales,especially, rural crime’s gone up which just shows that organised criminals are looking for ways to target the countryside again and again,” he said.
“What we’ve found increasingly is that organised criminals are targeting certain areas of the countryside, so they’re hitting multiple farms in one night.
“They’re raiding them, they’re moving away to another area and then hitting multiple farms there. So it is hugely concerning.”
Image: Andrew Chalk
Mr Chalk said NFU Mutual had also heard reports of criminals using drones and other equipment to “look at the lay of the land”.
“What it does show is that organised criminals are always going to find new ways to target rural crime and that’s why we need to be on top of it and to work together to actually disrupt them,” he added.
Police forces in Wales say they are aware of the “significant impact” that rural crimes have on those affected.
A Dyfed-Powys Police spokesperson said the force had acquired new technology to help combat rural crime, including “advanced DNA asset-marking kits” and hopes to “empower farmers with effective tools and advice”.
The spokesperson acknowledged the difficulty of patrolling the entire police force area, “given the huge area” it has to cover, and thanked rural communities for their “continuing vigilance and for reporting any suspicious activity”.
Temporary Chief Superintendent Jason White, from Gwent Police, said the force would be “increasing resources” within the rural crime team throughout this financial year and urged anyone in a rural area who believes they have been a victim of crime to get in touch.