Nuclear strike could become more appealing for Putin as options shrink
More losses for Russia in Ukraine, this time around Kherson.
Ukraine’s long-telegraphed Kherson counter-offensive is making some headway along the western banks of the Dnipro river, between the villages of Zolota Balka and Dudchany around 100km north of the port city.
Ukraine makes biggest breakthrough in the south – live updates
Russia’s ministry of defence admitted on Monday that the Ukrainians had broken through Russian lines at Zolota Balka and Oleksandrivka, but that the Russians had taken up pre-prepared defensive positions and were continuing to inflict “massive fire on the enemy”.
Just four days after Russia declared all this territory theirs, it doesn’t look good for them. And Russian losses are appearing in the public domain, in a way that one month ago they would not have done. Russian military bloggers are documenting Russian setbacks to expanding groups of followers.
The likes of Ramzan Kadyrov, who incidentally has just announced he’ll be sending his three teenage sons to fight (including his 14-year-old), has poured criticism on the Russian military command in charge of the Lyman debacle.
As has Evgeny Prigozhin, who recently revealed himself to nobody’s great surprise as head of Russian mercenary group Wagner.
Kremlin criticism could work in Putin’s favour
Pundits on state TV are expressing concern at the dire state of affairs.
Could this open a Pandora’s box for the Kremlin, criticism which gathers pace and which it cannot control, triggering a slow unravelling?
Perhaps. It could also, intentionally or not, serve a purpose for Vladimir Putin.
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Russian flags removed in liberated city
If his nuclear bluffs are to be taken seriously, and given Russian capabilities it would be foolish not to, he needs to present a case to his people that the nuclear option is – at some point – justified.
He and his propagandists are pitching this as an existential battle against the military might of the collective West, out to destroy and dismantle Russia.
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A nuclear strike is an abhorrent option in any scenario, but it makes no sense if you’re winning.
With Russia losing ground though, and the outlook increasingly bleak, it might become more appealing as Vladimir Putin sees his options shrink.
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The cardinals have arrived, the finishing touches are being made; Vatican City is preparing for an election like no other.
On Wednesday, the papal conclave begins and many visitors to St Peter’s Square already have a clear view on what they would like the outcome to be.
“I want a liberal pope,” says Joyce who has travelled to Rome from the US.
“My number one is Pierbattista Pizzaballa,” says blogger Teodorita Giovannella referencing the 60-year-old Italian cardinal.
Rome resident Michele Rapinesi thinks the next pope will be the Vatican’s secretary of state, Pietro Parolin, who was Pope Francis’ number two.
Joyce has travelled all the way to Rome from the US
Michele Rapinesi speaks to Siobhan Robbins
Although the job of selecting the next pontiff lies with 133 cardinal electors, Ms Giovannella and Mr Rapinesi are among 75,000 Italians playing an online game trying to predict who they’ll pick.
Fantapapa is a similar format to fantasy football, but teams are made up of prospective pontiffs.
Ms Giovannella has chosen three popular Italians as her favourites: Cardinals Pizzaballa, Zuppi and Parolin.
After 47 years she wants an Italian pope but believes an Asian or African would be a good “plot twist”.
Despite the growing speculation and excitement, for the cardinal electors the papal conclave is the serious and sombre process of choosing the next leader of the Catholic Church and its 1.4 billion followers.
Teodorita Giovannella is hoping the next pope will be a fellow Italian
To keep the vote secret, they are locked in the Sistine Chapel which has been swept for hidden cameras, recording equipment and bugs.
The windows are covered to keep the outside world out and to stop drones from spying.
Mobile phones are banned and signal jammers have been installed to help stop any information being leaked.
Ballots are burned after they are cast and a plume of coloured smoke shows people if a new pope has been chosen.
Read more:
How Pope Francis heralded a new kind of leadership for Catholic Church
When does conclave start and how does it work?
How does the Sistine Chapel prepare for conclave?
Preparations inside the Sistine Chapel
The cardinal who is elected will become one of the most powerful men in the world and will set the course for the Catholic Church for years to come, making decisions which will affect the lives of millions of people worldwide.
Pope Francis’ 12-year reign pulled the church in a more progressive direction.
His fight for migrants and climate change made him a muse for Roman street artist Mauro Pallotta.
He met him five times and painted more than 30 pictures of him, celebrating his life on the walls of Rome.
Siobhan Robbins with Rome street artist Mauro Pallotta
One of Mr Pallotta’s artworks of Pope Francis
One shows Francis with a catapult shooting out hearts.
“It depicts the strong love he had for people,” Mr Pallotta explains.
In another, he wears a cape and is depicted as a superhero.
“I hope the new pope continues the way of Pope Francis and remembers the poor people of the world,” he says.
Whether the next pontiff is another pope of the people, a progressive or conservative will soon be decided by the cardinals.
Their choice will determine if the Catholic Church continues down the route set by Francis or takes a different path.
Israel has approved a plan to capture all of the Gaza Strip and remain there for an unspecified length of time, Israeli officials say.
According to Reuters, the plan includes distributing aid, though supplies will not be let in yet.
The Israeli official told the agency that the newly approved offensive plan would move Gaza’s civilian population southward and keep humanitarian aid from falling into Hamas’s hands.
On Sunday, the United Nations rejected what it said was a new plan for aid to be distributed in what it described as Israeli hubs.
Israeli cabinet ministers approved plans for the new offensive on Monday morning, hours after it was announced that tens of thousands of reserve soldiers are being called up.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far failed to achieve his goal of destroying Hamas or returning all the hostages, despite more than a year of brutal war in Gaza.
Palestinian children struggle to get donated food at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, Gaza. Pic: AP
Officials say the plan will help with these war aims but it would also push hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to southern Gaza, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis.
They said the plan included the “capturing of the strip and the holding of territories”.
It would also try to prevent Hamas from distributing humanitarian aid, which Israel says strengthens the group’s rule in Gaza.
The UN rejected the plan, saying it would leave large parts of the population, including the most vulnerable, without supplies.
It said it “appears designed to reinforce control over life-sustaining items as a pressure tactic – as part of a military strategy”.
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IDF reservists call for end to war in Gaza
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Israeli pilots’ letter reveals deepening rift
Seriously ill children from Gaza allowed into UK
More than 52,000 Palestinians have been killed since the IDF launched its ground offensive in the densely-populated territory, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
It followed the deadly Hamas attacks on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and saw around 250 people taken hostage.
A fragile ceasefire that saw a pause in the fighting and the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners collapsed earlier this year.
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