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The National Grid’s electricity system operator and gas system operator will release one of their regular winter outlook reports later.

They are designed to set out supply and demand scenarios as the weather gets colder and energy consumption tends to peak.

Amid an energy security and price crisis, this year’s outlook report has taken on particular significance, especially after the energy regulator Ofgem warned earlier this week that “due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there (is) a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter”.

“As a result, there is a possibility that (the UK) could enter into a gas supply emergency.”

There are lots of things that will impact the National Grid’s report and ultimately how confident it feels that the lights will stay on.

Supply is a critical issue

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Risk of emergency gas shortage

About half of the UK’s gas comes from the North Sea, but we import the rest either through pipes, or interconnectors, from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium or via liquid natural gas shipments (LNG) from big producers like America and Qatar.

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This supply is vital not just because 85% of UK homes rely on gas for heating, but also because the UK gets 40% of its electricity from gas fired power stations.

And although the UK doesn’t get very much gas at all from Russia, Europe does. If Russia further throttles supply to the continent, there could be knock on effects for the UK in the form of supply issues, rocketing prices, or both.

The UK is particularly exposed because of its limited gas storage facilities, meaning it can’t fall back on its own reserves in the same way that Germany can, for example.

Additionally the UK has to compete on the global market, particularly against Asia, for LNG shipments which make up about 17% of the gas supplied to the UK through production and imports.

UK’s large LNG imports infrastructure is an advantage

The UK has a big LNG imports infrastructure which gives it an advantage, but the predicted stability of this market will have a big impact on the National Grid’s risk assessment, as will any further predicted issues with the supply of electricity generated by France’s nuclear power stations, many of which have been offline for maintenance.

The National Grid will also estimate how much wind and solar power we can expect to generate in the coming months too, and how much “back up” electricity can be generated by some of the UK’s remaining coal fired power stations.

Wind farm

This brings us to the issue of demand.

In a tight situation, if supply cannot be increased, demand must be reduced.

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Prime Minister Liz Truss has pledged there won’t be energy rationing this winter but that is a bold promise to make.

Writing in The Times today, ahead of the inaugural European Political Community summit in Prague, she urged European leaders to work together “this winter so we keep the lights on across the continent”.

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Energy price rise: ‘It’s hideous’

But other European countries have already asked consumers to reduce consumption during peak hours and have been open about the possibility of energy rationing, beginning with big industry, should that be necessary.

There could be public awareness campaign asking people to use less energy

The National Grid has previously stressed that the blackout risk for homes is “very unlikely”, but in the spirit of preventing an emergency shortage is also consulting on measures like paying homes and businesses to reduce electricity and gas consumption if asked.

Separately the government might launch a public awareness campaign to ask (rather than tell) consumers use less.

And it is worth saying that despite Liz Truss’s promise, the government and the National Grid routinely updates plans for what is known as a “reasonable worst case scenario”, in which a combination of very cold weather and serious supply issues causes an energy shortage that requires rationing, rather than risking uncontrolled blackouts.

If this were to happen, gas fired power stations could be closed and big industrial users could be prevented from using energy.

There is also the possibility of electricity to households being turned off during critical hours, although the government has stressed this is unlikely.

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Bill Dare: Spitting Image producer dies after accident abroad

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Bill Dare: Spitting Image producer dies after accident abroad

Comedy writer Bill Dare, – who worked on shows including Spitting Image and Dead Ringers – has died after an accident overseas, his agent said.

Described as a “super producer” by his peers, Dare, 64, worked on eight series of hugely popular satire puppet show Spitting Image.

Airing on ITV during the 1980s and 1990s, the show delighted in lampooning public figures including politicians, celebrities and royalty, winning BAFTAs and Emmys. It was rebooted in 2020.

Dare also created Dead Ringers, a comedy impressions show broadcast on BBC Radio 4.

He also produced The Now Show, a satirical take on the news which ran on Radio 4 from 1998 to 2024.

Dare worked on a wide range of comedy shows during his career, including the radio production of The Mary Whitehouse Experience in the late 1980s and early 1990s. He had also written several novels.

In a statement released on Monday, his agent JFL Agency confirmed he died at the weekend.

A spokesperson said: “We are shocked and greatly saddened to have to announce the death of our brilliant client Bill Dare, who died at the weekend following an accident overseas.

“Our thoughts are with his wife Lucy, daughter Rebecca, and with all of Bill’s family and friends who will be devastated by his loss.

“Bill was a truly legendary producer and writer, and his comedy instincts were second to none.”

Pic: ITV/Shutterstock
Image:
Oasis depicted on Spitting Image in 1996. Pic: ITV/Shutterstock

Colleagues were quick to pay tribute and reflect on his talent.

Impressionist Jon Culshaw wrote on X: “It’s impossible to express the unreal sense of loss at the passing of the incredible Bill Dare. The wisest comedy alchemist and the dearest, dearest friend. Much love to Lucy and all Bill’s family and friends. We shall all miss him more than we can say.”

David Baddiel posted on the social media platform: “Just heard that the original producer of The Mary Whitehouse Experience on radio, Bill Dare, has died. Bill was an amazing creative force. I owe him much. RIP.”

Former EastEnders actress Tracy-Ann Oberman said she was “devastated” and that her “entire comedy career was down to Bill”.

She wrote: “When I was on the BBC Radio 4 rep company early on in career – I ran into Bill in the corridors – He asked if I was good at accents. I said yes.

“He cast me in a sketch show. I had to do about 15 different accents. We recorded in front of a live audience at Broadcasting House – afterwards Bill said ‘Why have I never met you – you’re going to have a big career’.

“He was incredibly loyal and supportive and really opened a path for me into the R4 comedy world and then TV having come out of the RSC and theatre it was all new. I will always be grateful. Fly high Bill.”

Comedian and writer Mark Steel wrote: “This is so grim. Bill was a compassionate hearty soul with the ability to be beautifully grumpy, a marvellously thoughtful comic mind.

“He’d argue but always listen and you’d always laugh, he made a million shows and wanted them all to matter and would have made a million more.”

Have I Got News for You writer Pete Sinclair said: “I am utterly devastated by Bill’s death. I still can’t believe it. He was a comedy genius. A hugely talented writer as well as a brilliant producer. A close friend and co-writer. I cannot begin to say how much I’ll miss him.”

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Julia McKenzie, comedy commissioner for Radio 4, said: “I am so terribly sorry to hear this tragic news and my thoughts are with Bill’s wife, family and friends.

“Bill has been a huge part of Radio 4 comedy for decades, as a writer and producer, and listeners will have heard his legendary name at the end of many of their favourite shows.

“Bill was a comedy obsessive, and very instinctive about making the funniest choices when it came to writing, directing and editing.

“He cared so much about his work that in the production booth during Dead Ringers you’d see him crouched over the script, utterly focused on the show.

“He was funny and very dry in person, amusingly cynical when he needed to be and always pushed to keep the comedy he made, and particularly satire, spiky.

“I’ve known and worked with him for 18 years and like many I can’t believe he has gone, he will leave a big hole in the comedy world and in our hearts.”

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‘Corrupt’ ex-prison officer who boasted about performing sex act on inmate jailed

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'Corrupt' ex-prison officer who boasted about performing sex act on inmate jailed

An ex-prison officer who boasted about performing a sex act on an inmate who “manipulated” her has been jailed. 

Mother-of-one Katie Evans, 26, burst into tears in court as the judge described how she was “corrupted” by an “experienced criminal” not long after she started work at Doncaster Prison when she was just 21.

As well as starting an intimate relationship with the prisoner, Daniel Brownley, Evans had more than 140 phone calls with him, moved money around bank accounts for him, and supplied him with information the prison held on him, the court heard.

Brownley had been jailed in 2016 for attempted robbery, burglary and handling stolen goods, the court heard.

“It appears you indulged in some form of sexual activity in the prison. It has been described that on one occasion you had oral sex with him,” Judge Jeremy Richardson KC told Evans at Sheffield Crown Court.

“It is truly a terrible situation for a judge to be passing sentence on a former prison officer who has been branded a corrupt prison officer.”

Judge Richardson told Evans “he corrupted you and not the reverse”, adding: “I’m entirely satisfied you were manipulated by an experienced criminal to assist him.”

He said Evans was “young and immature” at the time but added: “Your misconduct materially affected the good order and discipline of the prison.”

“You were inexperienced and immature but that is, however, no excuse for what you did.”

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Judge Richardson said the sentence of 21 months should have been longer but, “purely as an act of mercy”, he reduced it to take into account the effect it will have on Evans’ relationship with her young daughter and the difficulties she will have in prison as a former officer.

Evans, of Hatfield, Doncaster, admitted misconduct in a public office at a previous hearing.

Still crying, she waved at family members in the public gallery as she was led from the dock.

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Matt Lucas apologises to Millie Bobby Brown after actress hits out at ‘bullying’

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Matt Lucas apologises to Millie Bobby Brown after actress hits out at 'bullying'

Comedian Matt Lucas has apologised to actress Millie Bobby Brown after he posted a Little Britain catchphrase alongside photographs of the 21-year-old on social media. 

Lucas, 50, wrote “no but yeah but”, a phrase used by delinquent teenager Vicky Pollard in the sketch comedy series he co-created, on an X post that reshared pictures of the Stranger Things star.

The photos show Brown in Los Angeles wearing hoop earrings and a pink top, which Lucas said had prompted him to point out “the similarity by posting one of her [Vicky’s] catchphrases”.

Jake Bongiovi and Millie Bobby Brown at Netflix's "The Electric State" world premiere
Image:
Jake Bongiovi and Millie Bobby Brown at Netflix’s “The Electric State” world premiere

Matt Lucas as Vicky Pollard in 2005. Pic: Shutterstock
Image:
Matt Lucas as Vicky Pollard in 2005. Pic: Shutterstock

The apology came after an Instagram post from Brown in which she hit out at negative comments and “bullying” about her appearance on social media and in news articles.

Lucas said: “Dear Millie, I just saw your post and wanted to respond, and provide some context. Nearly 25 years ago I co-wrote and appeared in a sketch show called Little Britain.

“There was a character in it called Vicky Pollard, who had blonde hair and always wore a pink top, and in the photo you had blonde hair and wore a pink top so I pointed out the similarity by posting one of her catchphrases.

“I thought you looked terrific and I was mortified when the press wrote that I ‘slammed’ you, firstly because that’s not my style, and secondly because I think you’re brilliant.

“I would not have posted it if I had thought it would have upset you but I realise it has and for that I apologise.”

Little Britain, which also starred David Walliams, began as a radio show in 2000 and moved to TV in 2003, running for three series.

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In her video, Brown said: “I want to take a moment to address something that I think is bigger than just me, something that affects every young woman who grows up under public scrutiny.

“I think this is very necessary to talk about. I started in this industry when I was 10 years old. I grew up in front of the world, and, for some reason, people can’t seem to grow with me.

“Instead, they act like I’m supposed to stay frozen in time, like I should still look the way I did on Stranger Things season one. And because I don’t, I’m now a target.”

She quoted headlines from articles, among them references to Lucas’s comments, which she said were “amplifying an insult rather than questioning why a grown man is mocking a young woman’s appearance”.

“This isn’t journalism. This is bullying. The fact that adult writers are spending their time dissecting my face, my body, my choices, is disturbing.

“The fact that some of these articles are written by women makes it even worse. We always talk about supporting and uplifting young women but, when it comes down to it, it seems a lot easier to tear them down for clicks,” she added.

“Disillusioned people can’t handle seeing a girl become a woman on her terms, not their own. I refuse to apologise for growing up. I refuse to make myself smaller to fit the unrealistic expectations of people who can’t handle seeing a girl become a woman.

“I will not be shamed for how I look, how I dress, or how I present myself. We have become a society where it’s so much easier to criticise than it is to pay a compliment.”

She ended her post by saying: “Let’s do better. Not just for me, but for every young girl who deserves to grow up without the fear of being torn apart for simply existing.”

Celebrities including Sex And The City’s Sarah Jessica Parker, as well as singers Pixie Lott and Lily Allen, left messages of support for the young actress.

Brown became a household name after starring as Eleven in the hit Netflix series Stranger Things.

The fifth and final series of the show, which started in 2016, is due to air this year.

The British actress also landed the title role as mystery-solving sleuth Enola Holmes in the 2020 film and its sequel two years later.

Brown, who married Jake Bongiovi, the son of rock star Jon Bon Jovi, last year, has been promoting the new Russo Brothers film, The Electric State, in which she stars alongside Chris Pratt.

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