Amid energy security and price crisis, key winter outlook report takes on particular significance
The National Grid’s electricity system operator and gas system operator will release one of their regular winter outlook reports later.
They are designed to set out supply and demand scenarios as the weather gets colder and energy consumption tends to peak.
Amid an energy security and price crisis, this year’s outlook report has taken on particular significance, especially after the energy regulator Ofgem warned earlier this week that “due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there (is) a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter”.
“As a result, there is a possibility that (the UK) could enter into a gas supply emergency.”
There are lots of things that will impact the National Grid’s report and ultimately how confident it feels that the lights will stay on.
Supply is a critical issue
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Risk of emergency gas shortage
About half of the UK’s gas comes from the North Sea, but we import the rest either through pipes, or interconnectors, from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium or via liquid natural gas shipments (LNG) from big producers like America and Qatar.
This supply is vital not just because 85% of UK homes rely on gas for heating, but also because the UK gets 40% of its electricity from gas fired power stations.
And although the UK doesn’t get very much gas at all from Russia, Europe does. If Russia further throttles supply to the continent, there could be knock on effects for the UK in the form of supply issues, rocketing prices, or both.
The UK is particularly exposed because of its limited gas storage facilities, meaning it can’t fall back on its own reserves in the same way that Germany can, for example.
Additionally the UK has to compete on the global market, particularly against Asia, for LNG shipments which make up about 17% of the gas supplied to the UK through production and imports.
UK’s large LNG imports infrastructure is an advantage
The UK has a big LNG imports infrastructure which gives it an advantage, but the predicted stability of this market will have a big impact on the National Grid’s risk assessment, as will any further predicted issues with the supply of electricity generated by France’s nuclear power stations, many of which have been offline for maintenance.
The National Grid will also estimate how much wind and solar power we can expect to generate in the coming months too, and how much “back up” electricity can be generated by some of the UK’s remaining coal fired power stations.
This brings us to the issue of demand.
In a tight situation, if supply cannot be increased, demand must be reduced.
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Prime Minister Liz Truss has pledged there won’t be energy rationing this winter but that is a bold promise to make.
Writing in The Times today, ahead of the inaugural European Political Community summit in Prague, she urged European leaders to work together “this winter so we keep the lights on across the continent”.
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But other European countries have already asked consumers to reduce consumption during peak hours and have been open about the possibility of energy rationing, beginning with big industry, should that be necessary.
There could be public awareness campaign asking people to use less energy
The National Grid has previously stressed that the blackout risk for homes is “very unlikely”, but in the spirit of preventing an emergency shortage is also consulting on measures like paying homes and businesses to reduce electricity and gas consumption if asked.
Separately the government might launch a public awareness campaign to ask (rather than tell) consumers use less.
And it is worth saying that despite Liz Truss’s promise, the government and the National Grid routinely updates plans for what is known as a “reasonable worst case scenario”, in which a combination of very cold weather and serious supply issues causes an energy shortage that requires rationing, rather than risking uncontrolled blackouts.
If this were to happen, gas fired power stations could be closed and big industrial users could be prevented from using energy.
There is also the possibility of electricity to households being turned off during critical hours, although the government has stressed this is unlikely.
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Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield has resigned from the Labour Party.
The 53-year-old MP is the first to jump ship since the general election and in her resignation letter criticised the prime minister for accepting thousands of pounds worth of gifts.
She told Sir Keir Starmer the reason for leaving now is “the programme of policies you seem determined to stick to”, despite their unpopularity with the electorate and MPs.
In her letter she accused the prime minister and his top team of “sleaze, nepotism and apparent avarice” which are “off the scale”.
“I’m so ashamed of what you and your inner circle have done to tarnish and humiliate our once proud party,” she said.
Rosie Duffield. Pic: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via Reuters
Sir Keir has faced backlash after a Sky News report revealed he had received substantially more freebies than any other MP since becoming Labour leader.
Since December 2019, the prime minister received £107,145 in gifts, benefits, and hospitality – a specific category in parliament’s register of MPs’ interests.
Ms Duffield, who has previously clashed with the prime minister on gender issues, attacked the government for pursuing “cruel and unnecessary” policies as she resigned the Labour whip.
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She criticised the decision to keep the two-child benefit cap and means-test the winter fuel payment, and accused the prime minister of “hypocrisy” over his acceptance of free gifts from donors.
“Since the change of government in July, the revelations of hypocrisy have been staggering and increasingly outrageous,” she said.
“I cannot put into words how angry I and my colleagues are at your total lack of understanding about how you have made us all appear.”
Ms Duffield also mentioned the recent “treatment of Diane Abbott”, who said she thought she had been barred from standing by Labour ahead of the general election, before Sir Keir said she would be allowed to defend her Hackney North and Stoke Newington seat for the party.
Her relationship with the Labour leadership has long been strained and her decision to quit the party comes after seven other Labour MPs were suspended for rebelling by voting for a motion calling for the two-child benefit cap to be abolished.
“Someone with far-above-average wealth choosing to keep the Conservatives’ two-child limit to benefit payments which entrenches children in poverty, while inexplicably accepting expensive personal gifts of designer suits and glasses costing more than most of those people can grasp – this is entirely undeserving of holding the title of Labour prime minister,” she said.
Ms Duffield said she will continue to represent her constituents as an independent MP, “guided by my core Labour values”.
UK
King Charles hails ‘uniquely special’ Scotland as it marks Holyrood milestone – before being hugged by woman
The King has paid tribute to Scotland as a “uniquely special place” for the Royal Family as he marked the 25th anniversary of the Scottish parliament.
At the ceremony to commemorate a quarter of a century since parliament opened at Holyrood, the King said: “Speaking from a personal perspective, Scotland has always had a uniquely special place in the hearts of my family and myself.
“My beloved grandmother was proudly Scottish, my late mother especially treasured the time spent at Balmoral, and it was there in the most beloved of places, where she chose to spend her final days.”
He said we are all “united by our love of Scotland”, paying tribute to its “natural beauty”, “strength of character”, “diversity of its people”, “passions and frequently deeply held beliefs”.
“From the central belt to the north Highlands, across the islands in Ayrshire, in the Borders, the cities, towns and villages, all the coastal communities, who I wonder, could not fail to be moved by this complex Caledonian kaleidoscope?,” he asked as presiding officer Alison Johnstone and the Queen sat beside him.
After he gave the speech, the King was hugged by a member of the public – who said she did so “because of him being unwell”.
The 75-year-old was diagnosed with cancer in February but has since returned to public duties.
Yvonne Macmillan, 59, from East Renfrewshire, attended the anniversary ceremony with her husband Russell who is registered blind and chosen as a “local hero” for work in their area.
“I asked him if he was feeling better and if I could give him a hug. I actually said to him: ‘Can I hug you?’,” she said.
“As I hugged him I said, ‘God bless you’, so it was like God giving him a hug.”
The King listens to the presiding officer of the Scottish parliament at Holyrood. Pic: PA
The Queen sits alongside the King as he makes his speech on Saturday. Pic: PA
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While Sir Tony Blair’s Labour government legislated for Scottish devolution in 1997 – parliament officially opened at Holyrood on 1 July 1999.
The King has made six visits to the parliament since 1999 – while his mother Queen Elizabeth II made 10 visits during her lifetime.
The King arrives at the Scottish parliament on Saturday. Pic: PA
Scottish First Minister John Swinney is one of a number of MSPs who have been at Holyrood since the start of devolution.
He said in his own speech in Edinburgh on Saturday that the parliament has “placed itself at the very heart of the nation”, describing it as a “vessel of enlightenment, invention and creativity”.
The King shakes hands with First Minister John Swinney in Edinburgh on Saturday. Pic: PA
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The SNP’s Christine Grahame is another MSP who has been there since the start.
“Free tuition, free prescriptions, game-changing policies to tackle child poverty, the ban on smoking, the baby box, ScotRail back in public ownership – none of this would have been possible without the Scottish parliament and the strength of our commitment to self-determination,” she said on Saturday.
The King said the devolved parliament has the ability to “touch and to improve the lives of so many individuals”.
Former first ministers Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf take a selfie as they wait for the King. Pic: PA
But he added that “there remains much more to be done” for Scotland, the rest of the UK, particularly with regards to climate change.
“Let this moment therefore be the beginning of the next chapter,” he told those assembled.
“The achievement of the past and the commitment shown in the present give us the soundest basis for confidence in the future.”
A moped riding phone thief was caught red-handed after police tracked the device down hours after he snatched it from a woman’s hand.
CCTV footage released by police showed a masked moped rider mount the pavement in Croydon, south London, to swipe a phone from a woman’s hand on 6 March, while another victim had theirs stolen while they waited for a bus an hour later.
Amari Scott, 20, looked surprised when confronted by officers inside a shop, where he was found with two mobile phones.
Amari Scott was caught red-handed. Pic: Met Police
“We’ve just had a moped rob a mobile phone off the pavement and the phone is pinging in this location,” one of the officers told him in body-worn camera footage before Scott was handcuffed and led away.
Police also recovered a stolen motorbike and Scott, from Sutton, south London, was later jailed for four years.
Two teenagers who committed four robberies in the space of just half an hour were also arrested as part of a crackdown in Croydon.
Aged 16 and 17, the teens were issued with referral orders after pleading guilty to charges of robbery, attempted robbery and attempted grievous bodily harm.
Amari Scott was jailed for four years. Pic: Met Police
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They were behind a spree of eight robberies across Croydon and nearby Bromley, including four within 30 minutes on the morning of 5 August.
Their crimes, which included the knife point robbery of a rough sleeper outside Croydon library, were caught on CCTV.
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One of the teenagers tried to discard a knife before she was arrested after a foot chase, telling officers: “The knife wasn’t mine”.
The other ran away, leaving a knife and his bag, but was lying in bed at home when he was arrested shortly after.
Two teenagers committed four robberies in 30 minutes. Pic: Met Police
The Metropolitan Police said officers are intensifying efforts to tackle robbery and theft, encouraging victims to report incidents as they happen to increase the chances of catching the criminals.
Chief Inspector James Weston said: “We understand the impact that robbery has on victims – it is invasive and frightening.
“That’s why our teams are working so hard to deter and catch offenders to reassure our local community.
“Thanks to the hard work of officers, our partners and community grassroots organisations, we are stepping up our efforts and tackling the issues that matter most to the people of Croydon.”
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