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The National Grid’s electricity system operator and gas system operator will release one of their regular winter outlook reports later.

They are designed to set out supply and demand scenarios as the weather gets colder and energy consumption tends to peak.

Amid an energy security and price crisis, this year’s outlook report has taken on particular significance, especially after the energy regulator Ofgem warned earlier this week that “due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there (is) a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter”.

“As a result, there is a possibility that (the UK) could enter into a gas supply emergency.”

There are lots of things that will impact the National Grid’s report and ultimately how confident it feels that the lights will stay on.

Supply is a critical issue

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Risk of emergency gas shortage

About half of the UK’s gas comes from the North Sea, but we import the rest either through pipes, or interconnectors, from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium or via liquid natural gas shipments (LNG) from big producers like America and Qatar.

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This supply is vital not just because 85% of UK homes rely on gas for heating, but also because the UK gets 40% of its electricity from gas fired power stations.

And although the UK doesn’t get very much gas at all from Russia, Europe does. If Russia further throttles supply to the continent, there could be knock on effects for the UK in the form of supply issues, rocketing prices, or both.

The UK is particularly exposed because of its limited gas storage facilities, meaning it can’t fall back on its own reserves in the same way that Germany can, for example.

Additionally the UK has to compete on the global market, particularly against Asia, for LNG shipments which make up about 17% of the gas supplied to the UK through production and imports.

UK’s large LNG imports infrastructure is an advantage

The UK has a big LNG imports infrastructure which gives it an advantage, but the predicted stability of this market will have a big impact on the National Grid’s risk assessment, as will any further predicted issues with the supply of electricity generated by France’s nuclear power stations, many of which have been offline for maintenance.

The National Grid will also estimate how much wind and solar power we can expect to generate in the coming months too, and how much “back up” electricity can be generated by some of the UK’s remaining coal fired power stations.

Wind farm

This brings us to the issue of demand.

In a tight situation, if supply cannot be increased, demand must be reduced.

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Eye-watering energy price cap may save businesses… but comes at a serious cost

Prime Minister Liz Truss has pledged there won’t be energy rationing this winter but that is a bold promise to make.

Writing in The Times today, ahead of the inaugural European Political Community summit in Prague, she urged European leaders to work together “this winter so we keep the lights on across the continent”.

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Energy price rise: ‘It’s hideous’

But other European countries have already asked consumers to reduce consumption during peak hours and have been open about the possibility of energy rationing, beginning with big industry, should that be necessary.

There could be public awareness campaign asking people to use less energy

The National Grid has previously stressed that the blackout risk for homes is “very unlikely”, but in the spirit of preventing an emergency shortage is also consulting on measures like paying homes and businesses to reduce electricity and gas consumption if asked.

Separately the government might launch a public awareness campaign to ask (rather than tell) consumers use less.

And it is worth saying that despite Liz Truss’s promise, the government and the National Grid routinely updates plans for what is known as a “reasonable worst case scenario”, in which a combination of very cold weather and serious supply issues causes an energy shortage that requires rationing, rather than risking uncontrolled blackouts.

If this were to happen, gas fired power stations could be closed and big industrial users could be prevented from using energy.

There is also the possibility of electricity to households being turned off during critical hours, although the government has stressed this is unlikely.

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All on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, on YouTube and Twitter.

The show investigates how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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Budget 2025: Reeves urged to ‘make the case’ for income tax freeze – as PM hits out at defenders of ‘failed’ policy

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Budget 2025: Reeves urged to 'make the case' for income tax freeze - as PM hits out at defenders of 'failed' policy

Rachel Reeves needs to “make the case” to voters that extending the freeze on personal income thresholds was the “fairest” way to increase taxes, Baroness Harriet Harman has said.

Speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, the Labour peer said the chancellor needed to explain that her decision would “protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes”.

In her budget on Wednesday, Ms Reeves extended the freeze on income tax thresholds – introduced by the Conservatives in 2021 and due to expire in 2028 – by three years.

The move – described by critics as a “stealth tax” – is estimated to raise £8bn for the exchequer in 2029-2030 by dragging some 1.7 million people into a higher tax band as their pay goes up.

Rachel Reeves, pictured the day after delivering the budget. Pic: PA
Image:
Rachel Reeves, pictured the day after delivering the budget. Pic: PA

The chancellor previously said she would not freeze thresholds as it would “hurt working people” – prompting accusations she has broken the trust of voters.

During the general election campaign, Labour promised not to increase VAT, national insurance or income tax rates.

Sir Keir Starmer has insisted there’s been no manifesto breach, but acknowledged people were being asked to “contribute” to protect public services.

He has also launched a staunch defence of the government’s decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap, with its estimated cost of around £3bn by the end of this parliament.

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Prime minister defends budget

‘A moral failure’

The prime minister condemned the Conservative policy as a “failed social experiment” and said those who defend it stand for “a moral failure and an economic disaster”.

“The record highs of child poverty in this country aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet – they mean millions of children are going to bed hungry, falling behind at school, and growing up believing that a better future is out of reach despite their parents doing everything right,” he said.

The two-child limit restricts child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households.

The government believes lifting the limit will pull 450,000 children out of poverty, which it argues will ultimately help reduce costs by preventing knock-on issues like dependency on welfare – and help people find jobs.

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Budget winners and losers

Speaking to Rigby, Baroness Harman said Ms Reeves now needed to convince “the woman on the doorstep” of why she’s raised taxes in the way that she has.

“I think Rachel really answered it very, very clearly when she said, ‘well, actually, we haven’t broken the manifesto because the manifesto was about rates’.

“And you remember there was a big kerfuffle before the budget about whether they would increase the rate of income tax or the rate of national insurance, and they backed off that because that would have been a breach of the manifesto.

“But she has had to increase the tax take, and she’s done it by increasing by freezing the thresholds, which she says she didn’t want to do. But she’s tried to do it with the fairest possible way, with counterbalancing support for people on low incomes.”

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She added: “And that is the argument that’s now got to be had with the public. The Labour members of parliament are happy about it. The markets essentially are happy about it. But she needs to make the case, and everybody in the government is going to need to make the case about it.

“This was a difficult thing to do, but it’s been done in the fairest possible way, and it’s for the good, because it will protect people’s cost of living if they’re on low incomes.”

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Twenty two stadiums and 4.5 million tickets – home nations submit bid for 2035 Women’s World Cup

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Twenty two stadiums and 4.5 million tickets - home nations submit bid for 2035 Women's World Cup

The football associations of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales have officially launched and released more details about their joint bid for the 2035 Women’s World Cup.

If the bid is successful, it would be the first football World Cup hosted in the UK since 1966, and the largest single-sport event ever staged in the country.

The bid includes 22 proposed stadiums – 16 in England, three in Wales, two in Scotland and one in Northern Ireland – across 16 host cities.

Organisers claim it would be the most accessible tournament ever, with 63 million people living within two hours of a proposed venue.

They predict the tournament would generate 4.5 million ticket sales and have a projected global TV audience of 3.5 billion.

The tournament would involve 104 matches contested by 48 teams over 39 days, with 48 team base camp training sites, 82 venue-specific training sites and 32 FIFA Fan Festival Sites proposed.

In April, FIFA president Gianni Infantino revealed that the home nations had submitted the only valid bid for tournament.

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In a joint statement, the CEOs of the various football associations, said: “We are proud of the growth that we’ve driven in recent years across the women’s and girls’ game.”

They added that: “A Women’s World Cup in the UK has the power to turbo charge the women’s and girls’ game both in the UK and globally.”

Where would the matches be played?

The bid details the host cities and stadiums as follow:

• Belfast – The Clearer Twist National Stadium at Windsor Park

• Birmingham – The Sports Quarter Stadium and Villa Park

• Brighton & Hove – The American Express Stadium

• Bristol – Ashton Gate

• Cardiff – Cardiff City Stadium and Principality Stadium

• Edinburgh – Easter Road

• Glasgow – Hampden Park

• Leeds – Elland Road

• Liverpool – The Hill Dickinson Stadium

• London – Chelsea FC Stadium, Emirates Stadium, Selhurst Park, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley Stadium connected by EE

• Manchester – Etihad Stadium

• Trafford – Old Trafford

• Newcastle – St James’ Park

• Nottingham – The City Ground

• Sunderland – Stadium of Light

• Wrexham – STōK Racecourse

However, some of the stadiums mentioned above were merely the ones put forward in the official bid and are likely to change after the construction of new stadiums are completed.

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Have you seen this nutcracker? CCTV shows thief stealing festive statue in Edinburgh

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Have you seen this nutcracker? CCTV shows thief stealing festive statue in Edinburgh

The manager of an Edinburgh cocktail bar will speak to police today over the “catastrophic” theft of an eight-foot tall nutcracker figure from outside his venue.

In what can only be described as a total nightmare before Christmas, a person riding an e-bike guaranteed a place on the naughty list by stealing the Copper Blossom’s festive statue on Monday.

They are seen on CCTV placing the soldier across their lap and riding off into the night down George Street towards St Andrew Square.

The thief was wearing a dark hoodie
Image:
The thief was wearing a dark hoodie

Speaking to The UK Tonight on Sky News, manager Paul Paxton said it was a massive financial blow for his bar.

“The individual nutcrackers are about £900 each,” he revealed.

The stolen one is named Nolan, while his “brother” Nelson remains “safe and sound”.

They were part of the Copper Blossom’s outdoor Christmas display, and Nelson has now been moved into the foyer.

Mr Paxton said he would be speaking to police about their investigation, with sightings having been reported “around Edinburgh” later on the night of the incident.

Nolan, who the owner described as “massive”, was taken at around 10.10pm. The CCTV footage shows the thief removing the statue and dragging it on to their bike.

You can see Nolan being taken away in this shot
Image:
You can see Nolan being taken away in this shot

As if losing a £900 nutcracker wasn’t bad enough, a table costing hundreds of pounds was also broken.

“It’s pretty catastrophic,” said Mr Paxton.

The bar had originally put out an appeal that said “if you return it, we’re all good” – but he admitted he doesn’t expect Nolan’s return any time soon.

Paul Paxton is dwarfed by his nutcracker soldiers
Image:
Paul Paxton is dwarfed by his nutcracker soldiers

And while he’d “never want someone to go into harm’s way”, he told Jayne Secker he was a little disappointed no witnesses alerted him or his staff to the theft.

“There were about 12 or 13 people who walked past,” he said.

“Even if someone had run in, that could have helped. It wasn’t a quick process – he fell off his bike.

“A heads-up would have been lovely.”

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