Amid energy security and price crisis, key winter outlook report takes on particular significance
The National Grid’s electricity system operator and gas system operator will release one of their regular winter outlook reports later.
They are designed to set out supply and demand scenarios as the weather gets colder and energy consumption tends to peak.
Amid an energy security and price crisis, this year’s outlook report has taken on particular significance, especially after the energy regulator Ofgem warned earlier this week that “due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there (is) a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter”.
“As a result, there is a possibility that (the UK) could enter into a gas supply emergency.”
There are lots of things that will impact the National Grid’s report and ultimately how confident it feels that the lights will stay on.
Supply is a critical issue
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Risk of emergency gas shortage
About half of the UK’s gas comes from the North Sea, but we import the rest either through pipes, or interconnectors, from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium or via liquid natural gas shipments (LNG) from big producers like America and Qatar.
This supply is vital not just because 85% of UK homes rely on gas for heating, but also because the UK gets 40% of its electricity from gas fired power stations.
And although the UK doesn’t get very much gas at all from Russia, Europe does. If Russia further throttles supply to the continent, there could be knock on effects for the UK in the form of supply issues, rocketing prices, or both.
The UK is particularly exposed because of its limited gas storage facilities, meaning it can’t fall back on its own reserves in the same way that Germany can, for example.
Additionally the UK has to compete on the global market, particularly against Asia, for LNG shipments which make up about 17% of the gas supplied to the UK through production and imports.
UK’s large LNG imports infrastructure is an advantage
The UK has a big LNG imports infrastructure which gives it an advantage, but the predicted stability of this market will have a big impact on the National Grid’s risk assessment, as will any further predicted issues with the supply of electricity generated by France’s nuclear power stations, many of which have been offline for maintenance.
The National Grid will also estimate how much wind and solar power we can expect to generate in the coming months too, and how much “back up” electricity can be generated by some of the UK’s remaining coal fired power stations.
This brings us to the issue of demand.
In a tight situation, if supply cannot be increased, demand must be reduced.
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Prime Minister Liz Truss has pledged there won’t be energy rationing this winter but that is a bold promise to make.
Writing in The Times today, ahead of the inaugural European Political Community summit in Prague, she urged European leaders to work together “this winter so we keep the lights on across the continent”.
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Energy price rise: ‘It’s hideous’
But other European countries have already asked consumers to reduce consumption during peak hours and have been open about the possibility of energy rationing, beginning with big industry, should that be necessary.
There could be public awareness campaign asking people to use less energy
The National Grid has previously stressed that the blackout risk for homes is “very unlikely”, but in the spirit of preventing an emergency shortage is also consulting on measures like paying homes and businesses to reduce electricity and gas consumption if asked.
Separately the government might launch a public awareness campaign to ask (rather than tell) consumers use less.
And it is worth saying that despite Liz Truss’s promise, the government and the National Grid routinely updates plans for what is known as a “reasonable worst case scenario”, in which a combination of very cold weather and serious supply issues causes an energy shortage that requires rationing, rather than risking uncontrolled blackouts.
If this were to happen, gas fired power stations could be closed and big industrial users could be prevented from using energy.
There is also the possibility of electricity to households being turned off during critical hours, although the government has stressed this is unlikely.
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It has become almost impossible to book a driving test on the government website due to bots on the booking system, driving instructors have told Sky News.
The only official way to book a practical car driving test is through the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA) website.
New test slots are released by the DVSA at 6am every Monday, but “no matter how fast I am, there’s nothing available”, said Aman Sanghera, a driving instructor based in west London.
Driving instructor Aman Sanghera wants ‘stronger oversight and regulation’ from the DVSA
When asked about the cause, she said: “All of the tests are taken by bots, they are definitely taking over the booking system.”
In this context, bots are automated software designed to mimic human behaviour and programmed to carry out actions like searching for and reserving driving test appointments on the official government website much faster than humans can.
Individuals and companies use bots to block-book driving test slots and then resell them at a profit, which is not illegal, although it is a violation of the DVSA’s terms of use.
Recent data shows the DVSA has closed over 800 business accounts for misuse of its booking service in the past two years.
It takes five months on average for a test in England – unless you pay a middleman
Ms Sanghera, who has been in the trade for over a decade, said the usage of bots started a few months ago “but is now getting out of hand”.
She said: “I’ve actually heard about driving instructors being approached by certain individuals to then take on their IDs to log in and to run this scam.
“I struggle to actually book a test for my students, which means that by the time my students are logging in, they’ve got no chance.”
Driving instructors can book driving tests on behalf of their pupils using a dedicated service, allowing them to bypass the general queue and potentially secure test slots more efficiently.
As a result, Ms Sanghera said students are “forced to go to third-party sites” to secure “the same test dates which are then available later on during the day at a premium rate of like £200-£300”.
She added: “Given that the DVSA is a government-regulated body, one would expect a more robust and fair system to ensure affordability and accessibility for all candidates.”
The long waiting lists and high demand for tests has led some to take advantage
The standard test fee is £62, offered by the DVSA, which is responsible for carrying out driving tests in Great Britain.
The biggest concern for the driving instructors Sky News has spoken to, including Ms Sanghera, is “the fact that students are being exploited”.
When Ahmed Ali struggled to find a practical test on the DVSA website, he turned to third-party sites – a decision he now regrets.
Ahmed Ali started looking for a test two years ago
He said: “I’ve spent about £650 on driving tests, and I’ve sat zero tests. I’ve given all this money to third-parties that look for cancellations so they could try to get you a faster test.”
But the 20-year-old said that despite making the payments, he “didn’t hear back from them again”, which is illegal.
“When you lose all that money, you get to a point where you can’t really afford to find another driving test,” he said.
“I just feel very frustrated because I’ve spent all this money, all this time into driving, and I haven’t sat a single driving test.”
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The DVSA urged applicants to only book tests via the official Gov.uk website and told Sky News it “deploys enhanced bot protection to help stop automated systems from buying up tests unfairly”.
“These applications, however, are constantly evolving and changing, and DVSA’s work on this is ongoing,” it said.
From Tuesday, the DVSA will require learner drivers to provide 10 full working days’ notice to change or cancel their car driving test without losing the test fee, up from the current three days.
Also part of the DVSA’s crackdown to reduce waiting times is a consultation expected to launch in spring 2025 “to streamline the driving test booking process” and “tighten terms and conditions”.
The last blast furnaces left operating in Britain could see their fate sealed within days, after their Chinese owners took the decision to cut off the crucial supply of ingredients keeping them running.
Jingye, the owner of British Steel in Scunthorpe, has, according to union representatives, cancelled future orders for the iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the furnaces running.
The upshot is that they may have to close next month – even sooner than the earliest date suggested for its closure.
Read more: Thousands of jobs at risk as British Steel consults unions over closure
The fate of the blast furnaces – the last two domestic sources of virgin steel, made from iron ore rather than recycled – is likely to be determined in a matter of days, with the Department for Business and Trade now actively pondering nationalisation.
The upshot is that even as Britain contends with a trade war across the Atlantic, it is now working against the clock to secure the future of steelmaking at Scunthorpe.
The talks between the government and Jingye broke down last week after the Chinese company, which bought British Steel out of receivership in 2020, rejected a £500m offer of public money to replace the existing furnaces with electric arc furnaces.
The sum is the same one it offered to Tata Steel, which has shut down the other remaining UK blast furnaces in Port Talbot and is planning to build electric furnaces – which have far lower carbon emissions.
These steel workers could soon be out of work
However, the owners argue that the amount is too little to justify extra investment at Scunthorpe, and said last week they were now consulting on the date of shutting both the blast furnaces and the attached steelworks.
Since British Steel is the main provider of steel rails to Network Rail – as well as other construction steels available from only a few sites in the world – the closure would leave the UK more reliant on imports for critical infrastructure sites.
However, since the site belongs to its Chinese owners, a decision to nationalise the site would involve radical steps government officials are wary of taking.
They also fear leaving taxpayers exposed to a potentially loss-making business for the long run.
The dilemma has been heightened by the sharp turn in geopolitical sentiment following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The incipient trade war and threatened cut in American support to Europe have sparked fresh calls for countries to act urgently to secure their own supplies of critical materials, especially those used for defence and infrastructure.
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Gareth Stace, head of UK Steel, the industry lobby group, said: “Talks seem to have broken down between government and British Steel.
“My advice to government is: please, Jonathan Reynolds, Business Secretary, get back round that negotiating table, thrash out a deal, and if a deal can’t be found in the next few days, then I fear for the very future of the sector, but also here for Scunthorpe steelworks.”
British Steel declined to comment.
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