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The National Grid’s electricity system operator and gas system operator will release one of their regular winter outlook reports later.

They are designed to set out supply and demand scenarios as the weather gets colder and energy consumption tends to peak.

Amid an energy security and price crisis, this year’s outlook report has taken on particular significance, especially after the energy regulator Ofgem warned earlier this week that “due to the war in Ukraine and gas shortages in Europe, there (is) a significant risk that gas shortages could occur during the winter”.

“As a result, there is a possibility that (the UK) could enter into a gas supply emergency.”

There are lots of things that will impact the National Grid’s report and ultimately how confident it feels that the lights will stay on.

Supply is a critical issue

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Risk of emergency gas shortage

About half of the UK’s gas comes from the North Sea, but we import the rest either through pipes, or interconnectors, from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium or via liquid natural gas shipments (LNG) from big producers like America and Qatar.

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This supply is vital not just because 85% of UK homes rely on gas for heating, but also because the UK gets 40% of its electricity from gas fired power stations.

And although the UK doesn’t get very much gas at all from Russia, Europe does. If Russia further throttles supply to the continent, there could be knock on effects for the UK in the form of supply issues, rocketing prices, or both.

The UK is particularly exposed because of its limited gas storage facilities, meaning it can’t fall back on its own reserves in the same way that Germany can, for example.

Additionally the UK has to compete on the global market, particularly against Asia, for LNG shipments which make up about 17% of the gas supplied to the UK through production and imports.

UK’s large LNG imports infrastructure is an advantage

The UK has a big LNG imports infrastructure which gives it an advantage, but the predicted stability of this market will have a big impact on the National Grid’s risk assessment, as will any further predicted issues with the supply of electricity generated by France’s nuclear power stations, many of which have been offline for maintenance.

The National Grid will also estimate how much wind and solar power we can expect to generate in the coming months too, and how much “back up” electricity can be generated by some of the UK’s remaining coal fired power stations.

Wind farm

This brings us to the issue of demand.

In a tight situation, if supply cannot be increased, demand must be reduced.

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Prime Minister Liz Truss has pledged there won’t be energy rationing this winter but that is a bold promise to make.

Writing in The Times today, ahead of the inaugural European Political Community summit in Prague, she urged European leaders to work together “this winter so we keep the lights on across the continent”.

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Energy price rise: ‘It’s hideous’

But other European countries have already asked consumers to reduce consumption during peak hours and have been open about the possibility of energy rationing, beginning with big industry, should that be necessary.

There could be public awareness campaign asking people to use less energy

The National Grid has previously stressed that the blackout risk for homes is “very unlikely”, but in the spirit of preventing an emergency shortage is also consulting on measures like paying homes and businesses to reduce electricity and gas consumption if asked.

Separately the government might launch a public awareness campaign to ask (rather than tell) consumers use less.

And it is worth saying that despite Liz Truss’s promise, the government and the National Grid routinely updates plans for what is known as a “reasonable worst case scenario”, in which a combination of very cold weather and serious supply issues causes an energy shortage that requires rationing, rather than risking uncontrolled blackouts.

If this were to happen, gas fired power stations could be closed and big industrial users could be prevented from using energy.

There is also the possibility of electricity to households being turned off during critical hours, although the government has stressed this is unlikely.

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Zebra died in Colchester Zoo after rhino ‘unintentionally punctured his stomach’

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Zebra died in Colchester Zoo after rhino 'unintentionally punctured his stomach'

The zebra that died in a zoo in Essex after an “incident” with a rhinoceros was killed after the larger animal unintentionally punctured its stomach.

Colchester Zoo had revealed over the weekend that a male zebra had died due to an “extremely rare” incident with a rhino, but it did not say how the animal’s death came about.

In an update, the zoo said a female rhino named Astrid had been sparring with her son Tayo in a mixed-species enclosure on Friday.

The rhino had “unfortunately” attempted to move the male zebra named Ziggy out of the way but in doing so “unintentionally punctured his stomach”, the zoo added.

The zebra died of his injuries a few minutes later.

Undated handout photo of a three-week-old male white rhino calf exploring his enclosure with mum Astrid, at Colchester Zoo in Essex. PA
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A three-week-old male white rhino calf with mum Astrid at Colchester Zoo. File pic: PA

Ziggy had been living “happily” with the other species in the enclosure, including the rhino, since November 2017, the zoo said.

It added in a statement: “In the light of these rare events, we review our care for the animals to minimise the risk of these incidents reoccurring.

“As a result, the animal care team will continue to closely monitor the animals’ behaviour in the coming weeks.

“These sorts of incidents are extremely rare and we are devastated by this loss, Ziggy was a much-loved animal who will be dearly missed.

“We would really like to thank our supporters for the well wishes at this difficult time and thank our fantastic animal care team who dealt with this very difficult situation extremely professionally.”

The zoo initially announced the zebra’s death on social media over the weekend, with some users claiming they witnessed what happened.

“I was there and I feel so bad for everyone,” one person wrote on Instagram.

“It was heart-breaking. The keepers did a great job handling it.”

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Another said: “We knew it had to be something serious, however every member of staff handled it so well, especially now looking back knowing the circumstances.”

The two animals were kept in the zoo’s “Kingdom of the Wild” enclosure, which is also home to animals and birds, including an African crowned crane, an ostrich, a greater kudu and a reticulated giraffe.

The habitat was completed in 2001 and is comprised of an indoor building and outdoor paddock, according to the zoo’s website.

Its rhinos are the near-threatened southern white species and since the first ones arrived in 1972, seven calves have been born at the popular tourist attraction.

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Football fan who mocked dead player at Sheffield derby match banned and fined

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Football fan who mocked dead player at Sheffield derby match banned and fined

A football fan who mocked a dead player at a derby match has been banned and fined.

During a game between Sheffield Wednesday and Sheffield United, Brandon Pedryc typed out “Where’s Baldock” in large letters on his phone and waved it at rival fans during the Championship game at Bramall Lane on 11 November last year.

The message was a reference to the death of a former United player George Baldock, who died in Greece a month earlier at the age of 31, Sheffield Magistrates’ Court was told on Monday.

Fans unfurl a banner in tribute to Baldock.
Pic: PA
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Fans unfurl a banner in tribute to Baldock after news of his death.
Pic: PA

The 23-year-old, a Wednesday fan, said he was responding to being pelted by coins and a bottle, as well as being spat on by rival fans – a claim district judge Marcus Waite accepted.

But Judge Waite described his actions as a “moment of madness” and said they had caused “upset” to fans as well as “enormous distress to the family and friends” of the deceased player.

Pedryc has been fined £300, ordered to pay £205 in costs and surcharges, and given a football banning order for three years.

Speaking to the defendant, the judge said: “You may have been provoked but you reacted by raising the stakes”, adding he had “risked greater disorder” in the highly charged environment of the derby.

Judge Waite went on to say Pedryc had done the right thing, approaching a police officer in Sheffield city centre within an hour of the incident once he realised his actions had gone viral on social media.

The court heard that while the officer made note of what Pedryc admitted to, he did not think a crime had been committed.

After a review by a more senior officer, Pedryc was arrested.

Pedryc told interviewing officers it had been a “sick joke, nothing more” and an attempt to “wind up” the United fans.

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Judge Waite said he had received a lengthy letter from Pedryc who he accepted was “thoroughly remorseful”.

Pedryc, who lives in Barnsley, admitted displaying writing, a sign or other visible representation which was threatening or abusive within the hearing or sight of a person likely to be caused harassment, alarm or distress.

Alex Nolan, defending, told the court his client had already lost one £30,000 job because of the incident, but he had secured other employment.

Baldock had been a Greek international.

He was found dead in his swimming pool in Athens, in October.

He had made 219 appearances for the Blades over seven seasons before leaving last year for Greek side Panathinaikos.

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Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

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Scotland's former first minister Nicola Sturgeon splits from husband

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced she has split from her husband, Peter Murrell.

Ms Sturgeon and Ms Murrell met via the SNP and first became a couple in 2003. They later married in July 2010 at Oran Mor in Glasgow.

Nicola Sturgeon with her new husband Peter Murrell following their wedding service at the Oran Mor in Glasgow in  2010.
Pic PA
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Ms Sturgeon with Mr Murrell following their wedding service at Oran Mor in Glasgow in 2010. Pic PA

File photo dated 19/11/14 of the then SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon is given a kiss by her husband Peter Murrell at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, after she was voted in as First Minister of Scotland. Former first minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon and former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell have "decided to end" their marriage, she said in a post on social media. Issue date: Monday January 13, 2025.
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Mr Murrell giving Ms Sturgeon a kiss after she was voted in as first minister in 2014. Pic: PA

In a statement posted to Instagram stories, she wrote: “With a heavy heart I am confirming that Peter and I have decided to end our marriage.

“To all intents and purposes we have been separated for some time now and feel it is time to bring others up to speed with where we are.

“It goes without saying that we still care deeply for each other, and always will.

“We will be making no further comment.”

Nicola Sturgeon announcing the split on Instagram
Image:
Ms Sturgeon announcing the split on Instagram

Ms Sturgeon unexpectedly announced she was stepping down as Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader in February 2023 after succeeding Alex Salmond following the independence referendum in 2014.

Mr Murrell, who had been SNP chief executive since 2001, resigned from his post the following month after taking responsibility for misleading the media over party membership numbers amid the leadership race, which Humza Yousaf went on to win.

At the time, he said: “While there was no intent to mislead, I accept that this has been the outcome.”

In April 2023, Mr Murrell was arrested as part of a probe into the SNP’s funding and finances. He was later charged with embezzling SNP funds in April last year.

Ms Sturgeon and ex-party treasurer MSP Colin Beattie have also been arrested and released without charge as part of Police Scotland’s long-running Operation Branchform.

The probe, which has been ongoing since July 2021, is linked to the spending of around £600,000 raised by SNP supporters to be earmarked for Scottish independence campaigning.

In September, it emerged senior officers had contacted the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) the month before for “advice and guidance” on the next steps in the investigation.

Meantime, Ms Sturgeon continues to deny any wrongdoing.

In an interview last month, the Glasgow Southside MSP said she knew “nothing more” about the inquiry and was getting on with life “as best I can at the moment”.

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