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Move over, Roger Maris: New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has hit his 62nd home run of the 2022 MLB season, setting the single-season record for the American League.

His 62nd home run — which came off Texas Rangers righty Jesus Tinoco on Tuesday in the Yankees’ final series of the regular season — moved him past Maris, who held the previous Junior Circuit record with 61 home runs in 1961. Judge also broke Maris’ famed franchise record, previously held by Babe Ruth, who hit 60 in 1927. Now, Judge joins Ruth and Maris as the only AL players to hit 60 or more home runs in a season.

So how did he do it? Let’s break down Judge’s road to 62.


When we all started talking about 62

While Judge’s season hasn’t exactly come out of nowhere — after all, he did hit a then-rookie-record 52 home runs in 2017 — this run to 62 wasn’t exactly anticipated, either. While remaining an enormously productive hitter in the ensuing seasons, after averaging a home run every 10.42 at-bats in 2017, Judge averaged one every 14.14 at-bats from 2018 to 2021. Remaining healthy and playing 148 games in 2021, he hit 39 home runs, hardly a harbinger for a historic season when you consider Brandon Lowe and Mitch Haniger also hit 39.

Judge also didn’t come roaring out of the gate: He hit one home run in his first 13 games. It took some time before everyone realized this could be a special season. My colleague Bradford Doolittle set up a day-by-day spreadsheet for Judge, creating estimated levels of playing time and home run percentage to compute a projected end-of-season home run total (differing from just a straight-up season pace).

Judge began the season with a projected total of 40.9 home runs — which dipped to 39.5 after he went homerless in his first five games. That would equal his lowest projected total. After finishing the abbreviated April schedule with six home runs in 20 games, Judge’s projected total had climbed to 47.9. Impressive, but he was hardly the talk of baseball yet, especially since teammate Anthony Rizzo led the majors with nine home runs in April.

Judge first reached a season pace of 50 on May 13 after homering against the Chicago White Sox but went back and forth between 49 and 50 for 10 days, until homering twice on May 23 in a loss to the Baltimore Orioles, bumping his projected total to 52.6. But he homered just once more the rest of the month, dropping his projection to 50.9. Nobody was talking 62, although Judge’s 18 home runs now topped the majors.

After belting 11 more home runs in June, Judge’s projection had climbed to 54.2 (with a straight-up pace of 61.0). This was starting to get interesting, but you might remember that Yordan Alvarez hit .418 in June, and while he trailed Judge by six home runs, Alvarez had a much higher weighted runs created plus (wRC+), hitting .316/.412/.658 to Judge’s .286/.361/.627. Judge had 62 in his sights, but the debate over the best hitter of 2022 was on.

Then came July — or, more specifically, a hot streak that started just before the All-Star break and saw Judge crack 12 home runs in 14 games through July 30. His projected total was now up to 62.0, and his straight-up pace was a ridiculous 66.7 (and that number would peak Aug. 1 at 67.0).

Judge did slow down a little in August, and a nine-game homerless streak through Aug. 21 dropped his projected total to 58.5 (with a straight-up pace of 61.1). He then responded with another barrage of power in September to make history and join Ruth and Maris in the American League’s 60-homer club.

It’s interesting how Judge’s season tracks with Maris’. Not only did Maris hit 39 home runs in 1960, the year before he hit 61, he also started slow in his recorded-breaking campaign, with just one homer in 15 games in April. Maris was a model of consistency after that, however, with at least 10 home runs in each of the final five months. Maris’ biggest hot streak was a stretch from May 28 to June 22, when he hit 19 homers in 29 contests.

Ruth’s race to 60 was a little different, as he hit nine home runs in each of June, July and August, before finishing with a flourish — 17 in 28 games in September and October, including seven over his final nine games (including a homerless game in the season finale). Of course, Ruth only played 151 games in his 154-game schedule, leading one to wonder what he might have done with an extra eight games.

Then again, Ruth wasn’t seeing too many 95 mph fastballs — and Judge has hit 11 home runs off pitches of at least that speed.


Home-field advantage? Hardly!

Yes, we all know that right field at Yankee Stadium is a joke. There are high school fields where it’s more difficult to hit a home run to right; at Yankee Stadium, it is only 314 feet down the line and doesn’t arc out as quickly as other ballparks. And, yes, for a right-handed batter, Judge is adept at going the other way, as 15 of his 62 home runs went to the opposite field. But, no, he hasn’t really taken big advantage of Yankee Stadium.

On the most basic level, Judge hit 30 of his 62 home runs at Yankee Stadium — one every 10 at-bats. He has hit 32 on the road — one every 8.8 at-bats. Mostly, Judge just doesn’t hit many cheap home runs. His shortest of the season was a 355-foot shot to right, but it came at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. He has hit three 364-foot home runs this year at Yankee Stadium. I reviewed those three:

  • April 22 off Tanner Tully: Line drive into the third row of bleachers in right field. Not a massive blast and maybe not out at every park, but not one I call a cheap home run.

  • June 15 off Shane McClanahan: Just over the fence in right-center. Definitely a Yankee Stadium home run given its dimensions in that area of the park.

  • July 30 off Jon Heasley: Another cheap one in the same vicinity as the homer against McClanahan. In fact, if a fan didn’t reach out to make the catch, Royals right fielder MJ Melendez might have hauled it in.

So, Judge has received a couple of gifts from his park. But he has homered even more often on the road. That doesn’t mean he would have hit this many in every park. Statcast, using just raw distances of his home runs, estimates Judge would have just 49 home runs if he had played all his games at Comerica Park (where right-center is particularly deep). But he would have 70 if he played all his games in Cincinnati or Colorado. So no real home-field advantage here. Sit back and appreciate his feats of strength.


Judge’s most valuable homers

What have been Judge’s biggest home runs? We can rank his top seven home runs by win probability added (WPA), which simply tells us how much the odds of the Yankees winning the game changes after each play (or, in this case, each home run), given the score, inning and number of outs and baserunners.

1. May 10: Walk-off against Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays to give the Yankees a 6-5 victory

WPA: 0.796

The most dramatic of Judge’s home runs sent Yankee Stadium into a frenzy as he crushed a 1-2 slider into the second deck in left field in the bottom of the ninth, a 414-foot blast off one of the better closers in the game. That kicked off a stretch of eight home runs in 13 games for Judge.

2. July 28: Walk-off against Scott Barlow of the Royals to give the Yankees a 1-0 victory

WPA: 0.424

Judge’s 39th home run came with one out off of a first-pitch, 95-mph fastball from Barlow, a 431-foot shot over the bullpen in center field. This came during his post All-Star blitz.

3. June 26: Walk-off in the bottom of the 10th off Houston’s Seth Martinez to give the Yankees a 6-3 victory

WPA: 0.360

With runners at first and third and two outs, the Astros elected to go after Judge. Martinez got a swinging strike on a first-pitch slider but came back with another slider and Judge didn’t miss, sending a low liner over the fence in left-center. Judge nearly cost himself a home run though: He started making a turn for the dugout after reaching first base, before he was reminded to finish his trot around the bases.

4. May 22: Home run off Kendall Graveman of the White Sox that tied the game 1-1 in the bottom of the eighth

WPA: 0.328

Graveman tried to slip an 0-2, 97-mph sinker past Judge, but left it up in the zone and Judge drilled into the second deck in left field (although the White Sox would win the game with two runs in the top of the ninth).

5. July 22: Three-run homer off Baltimore’s Tyler Wells to give the Yankees a 3-0 lead in the third

WPA: 0.290

This one doesn’t seem so dramatic, but it came with two outs (win probability goes up) and with two runners on, meaning the Yankees’ chances of winning the game increased significantly. Judge would add a second home run off Wells as the Yankees held on for a 7-6 victory.

6. Sept. 28: Go-ahead two-run homer in the top of the seventh off Toronto’s Tim Mayza

WPA: 0.267

Judge’s record-tying 61st home run of the season made an impact. At 117.4 mph, the line drive was also Judge’s hardest-hit home run of 2022.

7. Sept. 13: Game-tying home run in the top of the eighth off Boston’s Garrett Whitlock

WPA: 0.245

This was Judge’s second game-tying home run that day, coming off a 1-1 slider he lifted over the Green Monster. If you factor in game importance — mid-September, with the Rays having clawed closer to the Yankees — this home run deserves a higher ranking. Oh, in the top of the 10th, the Red Sox intentionally walked Judge with a runner on third and two outs. It backfired, as Gleyber Torres would later smack a three-run double and the Yankees won 7-6.

By the way, average WPA for Ruth, Maris and Judge:

Ruth: 0.119

Maris: 0.132

Judge: 0.137


He hits … well, everything

Thanks to the marvels of modern pitch tracking, we know everything about the pitcher-batter confrontation. And I mean everything. One of the coolest Statcast numbers found at MLB’s Baseball Savant site is how each batter fares against different pitches, broken down into overall run value produced.

The best hitter in baseball in 2022? Aaron Judge against sliders, with a run value of plus-28.

The second-best? Aaron Judge against four-seam fastballs, with a run value of plus-26.

To show how Judge has dominated the sport, the only other hitter with a run value over 20 against a single pitch is Alvarez against four-seamers, at plus-21.

Look at Judge’s numbers against individual pitches:

  • 1.254 OPS against four-seamers

  • 1.250 OPS against two-seamers/sinkers

  • 1.191 OPS against curveballs

  • 1.100 OPS against sliders

  • .794 OPS against changeups

And in limited results, an .832 OPS against cutters and .476 against splitters (2-for-14). Anyway: Judge is punishing everything.

His big improvement in 2022 has come against sliders. From 2017 to 2021, he hit .217/.331/.408 against them, while hitting over .300 against four-seamers and two-seamers. Last season, he ranked 90th in run value against sliders at plus-3 — and as we just saw, he’s No. 1 in 2022.

That all adds up to 62 home runs … and a slice of baseball history.

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Padres’ Bogaerts leaves after diving for ball

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Padres' Bogaerts leaves after diving for ball

ATLANTA — San Diego Padres second baseman Xander Bogaerts apparently injured his left shoulder and was removed from Monday’s game against the Atlanta Braves.

Bogaerts landed on the shoulder while diving for a bases-loaded grounder hit by Ronald Acuña Jr. in the third inning. Bogaerts stopped the grounder but was unable to make a throw on Acuña’s run-scoring infield hit.

Bogaerts immediately signaled to the bench for assistance and a trainer examined the second baseman before escorting him off the field.

Tyler Wade replaced Bogaerts at second base. The run-scoring single by Acuña gave Atlanta a 5-0 lead over Dylan Cease and the Padres.

Bogaerts entered Monday’s first game of a doubleheader hitting .220 with four homers and 14 RBI.

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MLB opens investigation into ex-Angel Fletcher

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MLB opens investigation into ex-Angel Fletcher

MLB opened an investigation Monday into allegations that former Los Angeles Angels infielder David Fletcher gambled with an illegal bookie, an MLB source told ESPN, but investigators face a significant hurdle at the start — where they’re going to get evidence.

ESPN reported Friday that Fletcher, who is currently playing for the Atlanta Braves‘ Triple-A affiliate, bet on sports — but not baseball — with Mathew Bowyer, the Southern California bookmaker who took wagers from Shohei Ohtani‘s longtime interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara.

Fletcher’s close friend Colby Schultz, a former minor leaguer, also bet with Bowyer and wagered on baseball, including on Angels games that Fletcher played in while he was on the team, according to sources.

“Government cooperation will be crucial in a case like this where we don’t have evidence,” the MLB source said.

MLB investigators will request an interview with Fletcher at some point, but he has the right to refuse cooperation if he can claim he could be the subject of a criminal investigation.

Fletcher did not respond to multiple requests for comment Friday.

The source declined to say whether MLB has reached out to law enforcement for assistance yet, but investigators are expected to do so.

Fletcher might continue playing during the MLB investigation, according to the source. He went 0-3 with a walk Saturday for the Gwinnett Stripers, the day after ESPN’s report, and made a rare relief pitching appearance in Sunday’s game, giving up three runs in 1⅓ innings. Fletcher had never pitched professionally before this season, but has made three relief appearances for Gwinnett.

MLB sources have said that if a player bet illegally but not on baseball, it’s likely he would receive a fine rather than a suspension. Any player connected to any betting on baseball games could face up to a lifetime ban.

Fletcher told ESPN in March that he was present at the 2021 poker game in San Diego where Mizuhara first met Bowyer. Fletcher said he never placed a bet himself with Bowyer’s organization.

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What to know ahead of this week’s House v. NCAA settlement votes

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What to know ahead of this week's House v. NCAA settlement votes

The trajectory of major college sports is set to bend this week to give athletes a significantly larger portion of the billions of dollars they help generate for their schools.

The industry’s top leaders will gather in the next few days to vote on the proposed terms of a landmark settlement. The deal would create a new framework for schools to share millions of dollars with their athletes in the future and create a fund of more than $2.7 billion to pay former athletes for past damages.

The settlement would also mark the end of at least three major federal antitrust lawsuits looming as existential threats to the NCAA and its schools, and would resolve the most pressing — and arguably most formidable — legal challenges facing the college sports industry. The deal would not, however, solve all of the NCAA’s problems or even provide clear answers to many crucial questions about how a more professionalized version of major college sports might look in the near future.

Here are some of the details and unsolved questions shaping conversations during what could be a monumental week in the history of college sports.

Terms of the settlement

While several important details are not yet finalized, sources have confirmed the following general structure of an agreement to settle the House v. NCAA case:

The NCAA’s national office would foot the bill for a $2.7 billion payment for past damages over the course of the next 10 years. The NCAA would generate the majority of that money partly by cutting back on the funds that it distributes to Division I schools on an annual basis.

The power conferences would agree to a forward-looking revenue sharing structure that would give schools the ability to spend a maximum of roughly $20 million per year on direct payments to athletes. The $20 million figure could grow larger every few years if school revenue grows. Each school would be left to decide how to allocate that money while remaining compliant with Title IX laws.

The plaintiffs, which could include all current Division I athletes, would give up their right to file future antitrust claims against the NCAA’s rules. This would include dropping two pending antitrust cases (Hubbard v. NCAA and Carter v. NCAA) that also have been filed by plaintiff attorneys Steve Berman and Jeffrey Kessler.

The sides would also agree to renew the class on an annual basis to include new athletes. New athletes — mostly incoming freshmen — would have to declare that they are opting out of the class in order to challenge the NCAA’s restrictions on payments in the future.

This rolling new class of athletes would, in effect, retire the most impactful tool that has been used over the past decade to chip away at the NCAA’s amateurism rules. Previously, Berman and Kessler needed only one athlete to lend his or her name to a case that would aim to remove illegal restrictions for all college athletes. Moving forward, a lawyer pushing to provide more benefits for athletes will first have to organize and gain commitments from a large group of players who opted out of the settlement.

Athletic and university administrators have long argued that their athletes are generally happy with what the schools provide and that the last decade’s lawsuits are the product of agitating lawyers and advocates. A settlement would not close the door on bargaining with athletes in the future, but it would make it less appealing for attorneys to test the legality of the NCAA’s rules without an explicit demand from a large swath of athletes.

While individual athletes could still opt out and sue the NCAA, the damages for a single athlete or small group of athletes would be far smaller. So, in practice, the House case settlement would provide schools with protection from future suits by removing the financial incentives that make these cases — which often takes years to fight — worthwhile for a plaintiffs’ attorney.

Class action cases have been an important tool to date for plaintiff attorneys because organizing college athletes — a busy and transient group of young people — is extremely difficult. (Although there are a number of groups actively attempting to form college players’ associations.) Some sports antitrust experts, such as Baruch College law professor Marc Edelman, say that, by making future class action lawsuits more difficult, this settlement would give schools ample license to collude on restricting payment to players. Edelman said this conflict could give a judge pause when deciding to approve the terms of the settlement.

Who’s in?

Attorneys representing the plaintiff class of all Division I athletes proposed terms to all defendants involved in the lawsuit in late April. To settle the case fully, the NCAA and each of the five power conferences will have to agree to the terms. Leaders from each group are expected to hold votes by Thursday.

The NCAA’s Board of Governors is scheduled to meet Wednesday.

The Big Ten presidents are planning to meet in person and vote this week as part of the league’s regularly scheduled meetings. That league has long been considered the major conference with the least amount of pushback on the vote. ACC presidents, SEC leaders and Big 12 leaders will also vote this week. In an odd twist, the Pac-12’s membership from this past season will gather virtually to vote, as the 10 departing programs will not vote in the conferences they plan to join next year. Since the Pac-12 was part of the suit as a 12-team league, the 12 presidents and chancellors of those schools will vote as a 12-school unit.

While the NCAA and conferences have to opt in, any athletes involved in the class will have an opportunity to opt out once the attorneys hammer out the details of settlement terms. Any athletes who opt out would retain the right to sue the NCAA in the future, but they would miss out on their cut of the $2.7 billion in damages. On the flip side, it’s unlikely that a current athlete who opts out would give up the opportunity to receive the forward-looking revenue share money, according to legal sources.

Next steps

If all parties agree to the broader terms of a settlement of the House case this week, their attorneys will get to work drafting the fine print of an agreement. That process can take weeks, according to attorneys with experience settling complex antitrust cases.

The judge overseeing the case, Judge Claudia Wilken of California’s Northern District, would then hold a preliminary hearing to review the terms of the settlement. If the judge approves, notice would be sent to all athletes providing them with a chance to formally object or opt out. And finally, the agreement would go back to the courthouse where Wilken would consider any arguments presented in objection before deciding whether the settlement meets her approval.

The Fontenot Case

Alex Fontenot is a former Colorado football player who sued the NCAA in late November for restricting athletes from sharing in television rights revenue. He filed his case a few weeks before Berman and Kessler (the two attorneys representing athletes in the current settlement negotiations) filed a similar complaint called Carter v. NCAA.

Both Kessler and the NCAA have argued that the two complaints are similar and should be consolidated into a single case, which would likely lead to the Fontenot case being part of the pending settlement talks. Fontenot’s attorneys do not want to consolidate and will present their argument for why the cases should be separate in a Colorado courtroom this Thursday.

Garrett Broshuis, Fontenot’s attorney, said he has concerns about how the House settlement could make it harder for future athletes to fight for more rights. Broshuis, a former pitcher at Missouri, has spent most of the last decade successfully suing Major League Baseball to help minor leaguers negotiate better working conditions.

The judge in the Fontenot case has not yet made a ruling on whether it should qualify as a class action lawsuit. If the House settlement is finalized, any college athlete would have to opt out of the settlement in order to take part in the Fontenot case. Opt-outs or objections raised during the House settlement hearings could give Judge Wilken additional pause in approving its terms.

Would Fontenot and other athletes who are working with his attorneys on this case opt out of the House settlement in hopes of pursuing a better deal in their own case?

“To the extent we can, we’re monitoring the media reports surrounding the proposed settlement,” Broshuis told ESPN this weekend. “Once the actual terms are available, we’ll closely scrutinize them. We do have concerns about what’s being reported so far, especially when it comes to the ability for future generations of athletes to continue to fight for their rights.”

Scholarship and roster limits

In the sprint to settle, there’s a bevy of details that are going to be left to college sports leaders to work out in coming months.

The inclusion of roster caps could impact college sports on the field. Right now, college sports operate with scholarship limits. For example, Division I football is limited to 85 scholarships, baseball to 11.7, and softball to 12. Meanwhile, Division I football rosters run to nearly 140 players on the high end, while baseball rosters top out around 40 players, and softball averages about 25 players.

Leaders in college sports are considering uniform roster caps instead of scholarship limits, which could be viewed as another collusive restraint on spending. This would give schools the choice to give out 20 baseball scholarships, for example, if they wished.

If rosters are capped at a certain number, the ripple effect could be more scholarships and smaller roster sizes. The viability of walk-ons, especially for rosters with dozens of them, could be at risk.

Sources caution that this won’t be determined for months, as formalizing roster caps are not part of the settlement. Sources have told ESPN that football coaches in particular will be vocal about radical changes, as walk-ons are part of the fabric of the sport. Stetson Bennett (Georgia), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) and Hunter Renfrow (Clemson) are all recent examples of transformative walk-ons.

The future of collectives

Multiple sources have told ESPN that some school leaders are hopeful the future revenue sharing model will eliminate or significantly decrease the role that NIL collectives play in the marketplace for athletes.

While an additional $20 million flowing directly from schools to athletes could theoretically satisfy the competitive market for talent and decrease the interest of major donors from contributing to collectives, experts say there is no clear legal mechanism that could be included in a settlement that would eliminate collectives. Those groups — which are independent from schools even if they often operate in a hand-in-glove fashion — could continue to use NIL opportunities to give their schools an edge in recruiting by adding money on top of the revenue share that an athlete might get from his or her school.

For the schools with the deepest pockets or most competitive donors, a $20 million estimated revenue share would be in reality more of a floor than a ceiling for athlete compensation. Most well-established collectives are planning to continue operating outside of their school’s control, according to Russell White, the president of TCA, a trade association of more than 30 different collectives associated with power conference schools.

“It just makes $20 million the new baseline,” White told ESPN. “Their hope is that this tamps down donor fatigue and boosters feel like they won’t have to contribute [to collectives]. But these groups like to win. There’s no chance this will turn off those competitive juices.”

How would the damages money be distributed?

Any athlete who played a Division I sport from 2016 through present day has a claim to some of the roughly $2.7 billion in settlement money. The plaintiffs’ attorneys will also receive a significant portion of the money. The damages represent money athletes might have made through NIL deals if the NCAA’s rules had not restricted them in the past.

It’s not clear if the plaintiffs will disburse the money equally among the whole class or assign different values based on an athlete’s probable earning power during his or her career. Some class action settlements hire specialists to determine each class member’s relative value and how much of the overall payment they should receive. That could be a painfully detailed process in this case, which includes tens of thousands of athletes in the class.

The NCAA also plans to pay that money over the course of the next 10 years, according to sources. It’s not clear if every athlete in the class would get an annual check for the next decade or if each athlete would be paid in one lump sum with some of them waiting years longer than others to receive their cut.

Are there any roadblocks to settlement expected?

In short, the NCAA’s schools and conferences will likely move forward with the agreement this week despite unhappiness in how the NCAA will withhold the revenue from schools to pay the $2.7 billion over the next decade.

There is significant pushback among leagues outside the power leagues on the proposed payment structure. According to a memo the NCAA sent to all 32 Division I conferences this week, the NCAA will use more than $1 billion from reserves, catastrophic insurance, new revenue and budget cuts to help pay the damages, sources told ESPN this week. The memo also states that an additional $1.6 billion would come from reductions in NCAA distributions, 60 percent of which would come from the 27 Division I conferences outside of the so-called power five football leagues. The other 40 percent would come from cuts the power conferences, which are the named defendants with the NCAA in the case.

The basketball-centric Big East is slated to sacrifice between $5.4 million and $6.6 million annually over the next decade, and the similarly basketball-centric West Coast Conference between $3.5 million and $4.3 million annually, according to a source familiar with the memo. The smallest leagues would lose out on just under $2 million annually, which is nearly 20% of what they receive annually from the NCAA.

(The NCAA would withhold money from six funds across Division I leagues — the basketball performance fund via the NCAA tournament, grants-in-aid, the academic enhancement fund, sports sponsorships, conference grants and the academic performance fund.)

In an e-mail obtained by ESPN from Big East commissioner Val Ackerman to her athletic directors and presidents on Saturday morning, she said the Big East has “strong objections” to the damages framework. She wrote that she’s relayed those to NCAA president Charlie Baker.

The 22 conferences that don’t have FBS football — known as the CCA22 — have also been engaged in conversations about their disappointment with the damages proposal, according to sources.

Per a source, some members of the CCA22 are planning on sending a letter to the NCAA requesting the responsibility be flipped — the power conferences contributing to 60 percent of the damages and the other 27 leagues contributing 40 percent. In her message, Ackerman wrote she expects former FBS football players will be “the primary beneficiaries of the NIL ‘back pay’ amounts” — suggesting that the damages may not be shared equally among athletes.

Ackerman’s letter does mention the widely held belief in the industry that it may be tough for any significant change: “At this stage, it is unclear how much time or leverage we will have to alter the plan the NCAA and [power conferences] have orchestrated.”

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