OPEC and its oil-producing allies agreed Wednesday to their largest cut to daily crude output since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, a decision the Club took steps to prepare for earlier this week by paring our energy exposure. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of partner producers led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, said they are cutting oil output targets by 2 million barrels per day. The move is seen as an attempt to reverse a steep slide in crude prices since early June, when prices topped $120 per barrel before tumbling more than 30%. Oil rose over 1% on the heels of the announcement, adding to strong gains at the start the week. Club holdings Halliburton (HAL), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Devon Energy (DVN) and Coterra Energy (CTRA) also were in the green. The details Officially, OPEC+ is cutting production by 2 million barrels a day starting in November, from their August production target of 43.856 million barrels a day. However, analysts say, the actual number of barrels coming offline could ultimately be less than the headline figure given that many OPEC+ members have already been producing below their targets. Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities at Bank of America, addressed the potential discrepancy in a CNBC interview Wednesday . “I think one of the big questions is, are we really going to get a 2 million barrel a day real cut or is it going to be a 2 million barrel a day nominal cut that is, essentially, readjusted by the fact OPEC itself is producing 3 million barrels a day under their actual quotas?” Blanch explained. “I think if you reallocate those countries that are underproducing and they don’t actually cut, you’ll get, probably, more like [a] 1 million, 1.2 million barrels a day actual cut,” he added. The cartel’s decision to lower production is not a complete surprise to markets, but the expected magnitude ratcheted up in recent days. For example, last week, some analysts had been warning of a reduction between 500,000 and 1 million barrels per day, well below the headline cut OPEC+ delivered Wednesday. In the days leading up to the decision, energy markets started to price in OPEC+’s looming production adjustment. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose nearly 7% over the first two days of the week. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, climbed more than 8% combined on Monday and Tuesday. After the OPEC+ announcement Wednesday, Brent was trading around $93 a barrel, while WTI was hovering above $87 a barrel. The Club’s positioning The Club’s energy exposure is all about protecting our portfolio from inflation, while collecting sizable dividend payouts along the way. In general terms, elevated oil prices are good for energy stocks and a headwind for the broader market. Owning stocks like Pioneer Natural Resources, Devon Energy, Coterra Energy and Halliburton has been a way to hedge against that dynamic. With oil supply already tight, OPEC+’s decision to slash production further is all about shoring up crude prices. Fears of a recession denting oil demand — combined with other factors like a strong U.S. dollar —contributed to crude prices tumbling during the summer months. We stuck to our investment discipline in the run-up to the OPEC+ meeting, as expectations for the cut pushed up oil prices. We trimmed 25 shares of Pioneer Natural Resources on Monday, redeploying cash from that sale into Estee Lauder (EL), and sold 100 shares of Devon Energy on Tuesday. We made those two sales of PXD and DVN into outsized strength — just as we trimmed our energy exposure when the sector was outperforming the overall market in late August and early September. After allowing our energy position to grow too large in early June, when oil was around $120 per barrel, we’ve been committed to our discipline in periods of outperformance. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long PXD, DVN, CTRA and HAL. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
The OPEC logo on a sign at the group’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
OPEC and its oil-producing allies agreed Wednesday to their largest cut to daily crude output since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, a decision the Club took steps to prepare for earlier this week by paring our energy exposure.
The tire-blistering SU7 Ultra has been the Xiaomi brand’s flagship super sedan since its launch, but a controversial software setting has limited the car to “just” 900 hp in regular driving – resulting in an outcry from owners who ponied up for the big boy numbers. With its latest software update, that missing 648 hp is back on tap!
The SU7 Ultra made waves throughout the performance car world when a bright yellow striped example lined up alongside a white quarter mile king, the 1,000+ hp Tesla Model S Plaid, and promptly smoked it.
That wasn’t all. A preproduction SU7 Ultra prototype lapped the legendary Nürburgring circuit in just 6 minutes and 46.874 seconds, firmly stamping the 1,500+ hp Xiaomi’s alphanumeric into the track’s record books with a time nearly fifteen seconds quicker than a Rimac Nevera or, on the ICE front, either a Corvette ZR1, Viper ACR, or Porsche 918 (take your pick).
It’s hardly any wonder, then, that the customers who signed up – in droves, too – were disappointed to learn that the SU7 they were allowed to buy had been neutered by the safety nannies to the tune of nearly 650 hp. (!)
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We’re so back
The outrage from SU7 Ultra owners was immediate. And, facing mounting pressure online and on social media, Xiaomi ultimately decided to withdraw the performance-limiting features while acknowledging the need for more transparent communication about future software updates they messed up, saying in a statement, “we appreciate the passionate feedback from our community and will ensure better transparency moving forward.”
So, rich people can rocket themselves down the road in 9 second hypercars again and all is right with the world. A happy ending – but one that sort of illuminates a fresh set challenges for automakers peddling “software-defined vehicles” to a market that still thinks of their cars as very much hardware defined products.
The new reality is playing out in real time now, and the Jeff Bezos-backed $20,000 electric compact pickup from Slate Auto is going the other way entirely – time will tell whether more, or less tech is the answer.
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Tesla (TSLA) has started offering reduced interest rates on the new Model Y in the US — this equates to a direct discount on the brand new vehicle that was supposed to spark Tesla’s demand back.
The automaker has announced “1.99% APR or $0 Due at Signing available for well-qualified buyers” on the new Model Y in the US for the first time:
This amounts to a direct discount worth a few thousand dollars. It is the first widely available discount on the new Model Y coming just weeks after the cheaper non-Launch Edition launched in the US.
These discounts and subsidized financing point to soft demand for the updated best-selling vehicle in the US. Tesla just delivered a disastrous first quarter, which it mostly blamed on the Model Y changeover, resulting in lower inventory.
However, industry watchers, including Electrek, noted many signs that the Model Y changeover was not the only issue. Tesla added significantly to its inventory in the first quarter, and the wait times for the new Model Y were extremely short.
Now, the discount weeks after launching the new Model Y confirm the soft demand in the US.
I think it’s clear by now: the new Model Y is not coming to save Tesla.
Let’s be honest: It will still be a significant vehicle program by volume. It just won’t help Tesla return to growth this year.
The RWD Model Y is still coming and has a chance to help in the US. It is already available in China, and it’s not helping Tesla much there, but that’s in a hyper-competitive market, especially at lower prices where the RWD Model Y operates.
Tesla’s performance in Q2 in China will be interesting since it is basically back to its regular lineup for the whole quarter.
The US appears to have been Tesla’s least affected market, but Q3 will be the real test with the full lineup and no backlog of demand for new Model Y.
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One of the largest electric bike brands in the US, Aventon, has recently shared several details about the company’s response to US tariffs on imported goods. The details reveal insight into how large e-bike makers are coping with the major disruption caused by the trade war launched by the Trump administration.
In a comprehensive post, Aventon covered the company’s response to several issues, from supply chain disruptions to manufacturing shifts to pricing policy.
Shift in manufacturing away from China
Like many e-bike brands, as Trump’s threats to cripple US imports from China grew, the company began focusing on alternative manufacturing locations. Despite being based in China and enjoying something of a home field advantage, the impact of potentially heavy tariffs threatened to offset the benefits of China’s lower-cost manufacturing and close proximity to the e-bike component supply chain.
Other Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand are seen as prime locations to shift e-bike manufacturing outside of China. Ironically, many of the new bicycle factories opened in these countries are actually Chinese-owned, built as investments by the very factory owners who anticipated a manufacturing shift brought on by tariffs initiated during the first Trump administration and increasingly hostile American rhetoric towards China.
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However, moving manufacturing outside of China comes with increasing costs and complexities beyond mere labor and investment in local manufacturing expertise. “The lack of localized suppliers means critical parts (e.g., motors, batteries) still often come from China,” explained Aventon. “This creates a logistical puzzle: components are shipped to Southeast Asia for assembly, then transported to the U.S. This multi-step process adds 50+ days to shipment times compared to direct manufacturing in China.”
Pricing could still take a hit
While the tariffs on other countries pale in comparison to the current 170% tariffs on Chinese e-bikes (145% retaliatory tariffs on top of 25% Section 301 tariffs), there’s no guarantee that tariffs on e-bikes from countries like Vietnam and Thailand will remain comparatively low. The current tariff on e-bikes from countries other than China sits at a minimum of 10%, but those could rise this summer after a 90-day pause granted by the Trump administration ends without a new negotiated deal or backtrack from the administration.
Those tariffs, Aventon made clear, are not paid by the countries who produce the goods, but rather by the companies who import them, and then ultimately by American consumers. “Tariffs are paid by importers during customs clearance before products reach the U.S. soil. These costs typically trickle down to consumers through price adjustments,” Aventon explained.
For now, Aventon has committed to keeping costs as low as possible by absorbing the increase in costs. “In early 2025, we proactively shifted 100% of our production to Thailand, investing in factory partnerships by sending Aventon key stakeholders from the production, quality control, and industrial engineering teams. While this transition increased our manufacturing and logistics costs by 10-15%, we’ve chosen to absorb many of these expenses.”
The brand cited sensitivity to inflation in the US causing an increase in living costs as one of the key reasons it intends to absorb the current price increases, which Aventon says aligns with its long-term vision of “keeping electric bikes accessible to everyone, not just those who can afford premium pricing.”
Can e-bikes be produced in the US?
For its part, Aventon won’t be bringing production of its electric bikes to the US anytime soon, citing a lack of domestic supply for critical components and the heavy tariffs applied to those components.
However, the company doesn’t rule out the possibility for e-bike assembly to occur on a smaller scale if tariffs are lifted, potentially as a precursor to true manufacturing in the future.
“Unfortunately, there is no supply chain of e-bike components here in the US and all key components are imposed with significant tariffs coming from China. Having e-bikes made in the US is not practical unless the parts tariffs are lifted. Then assembly first, followed by key components manufacturing in the long run, is possible.”
Electrek’s Take
There are a few things to unpack here. First of all, Aventon is right. Electric bike manufacturing isn’t coming to the US. While the company correctly cited the lack of a domestic supply chain as a key issue, what they perhaps wisely left unsaid is that the world experts on building bicycles currently live in China. Unless someone is going to invest millions in infrastructure to build factories and then pay the millions more it will take to train and payroll a new bicycle-building workforce, then it just isn’t going to happen.
Yes, small-scale bicycle building is happening in the US. Electric Bike Company in Newport Beach, California, is a prime example. They deserve all the respect in the world for building e-bikes in the US for years, long before tariffs were an issue. However, the most important components for their e-bikes come from China, and I don’t see how they can survive without raising prices substantially to cover the near-tripling cost of the most important components. And if they raise prices, then that’s another threat to their future.
Next, there’s something ironic about a Chinese-owned e-bike company telling Americans that it will keep prices lower because it knows Americans are already hurting financially. If the Murica crowd were ever to do some reflecting, this might be the time. There’s nothing wrong with being patriotic and wanting your country to succeed, but if the other country you’re trying to spite feels sympathy for you and thinks you need help, perhaps the “America First” policies aren’t working the way it was hoped.
And lastly, keep in mind that this is all extremely volatile and fluid. There is absolutely no stability in the e-bike market right now, nor larger global trade. This entire global financial tailspin was sent into action by the whims of one geriatric firebrand, and it can change just as quickly. Trump could decide to reduce tariffs on China tomorrow to prevent supply crises in the US, or he could double down and put similar embargo-level tariffs on countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand. It could literally go either way in a single day, or it could stagnate for months, with recent events showing us that both possibilities could be just as likely. The point being, this is the situation today, but no one knows what could come tomorrow.
Ooof – I need to go for a bike ride.
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