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The latest information on the risks facing gas and electricity supplies suggests there is an increased risk of blackouts this winter – but they can be prevented.

National Grid’s Electricity System Operator’s (ESO) updated report on the pressures facing power generators revealed contingency plans for three-hour blackouts in areas where gas-fuelled power falls short of demand.

A separate National Grid Gas Transmission study suggested that the country would be relying more on LNG (liquefied natural gas) supplies from the US and Qatar this winter.

That is because of uncertainty over whether traditional EU imports would be available because of the squeeze on supplies in the bloc following Russia’s war in Ukraine – intensifying pressure on the UK power grid as a result.

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Here, Sky News examines the pressures on UK supplies, what may be done to help keep the lights on and just how perilous the country’s situation could become if a prolonged cold snap arrives.

How worried should I be about the outlook reports?

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There is no getting away from the fact that these updates make for worse reading that the “early view” released by the ESO in July.

Then, it did not foresee the prospect of the lights going out, despite obvious pressure on supplies across Europe.

Thursday’s warning could not be starker, which is why they hope the risk of blackouts can be averted through an energy-saving scheme that will pay households not to use electricity-heavy products during peak hours and keep five coal-powered generators, that would otherwise have closed, open and on standby. More on the energy-saving scheme later.

Why is gas the main concern?

Gas-fired power stations account for more than 40% of UK electricity generation while gas is also responsible for heating the vast majority of homes.

Natural gas supplies have been severely disrupted since the war – forcing wholesale prices up and threatening much of continental Europe with shortages as most, such as Germany, have previously relied on gas from Russia.

While the UK holds its own in the warmer months, thanks to a mix of nuclear, wind, North Sea gas output and imports from Norway, Qatar and the US, we tend to lean more on the continent during winter to balance the gap between supply and demand.

This is because we lack gas storage.

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How rising costs will affect you

But we have more gas than we need…

It’s true. Currently.

The UK has been exporting gas at record volumes since late spring to help EU nations fill their storage after Vladimir Putin turned off the taps.

The lack of gas storage, however, means that we tend to rely on imports in times of high demand such as winter.

Only 70% of British gas supplies last time around came from the North Sea and Norway. It meant that supplies via ship of LNG and from the continent accounted for the rest.

Read more on Sky News:
Plan for three-hour power blackouts to prioritise heating in event of gas shortages
Amid energy security and price crisis, key winter outlook report takes on particular significance

What are the main threats?

The big one has to be, energy experts agree, the risk of a prolonged cold snap.

Unplanned power station outages too, as well as the inability to import electricity from Europe if there are, for example, nuclear power plant outages in France or gas shortages across the continent. Gas shortages will reduce the ability for EU countries to generate electricity.

The Gas Winter Outlook saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe to impact the UK’s ability to secure imports, should they be required.

As a result, it saw LNG acting as the primary source of supply flexibility during the winter months.

“In the unlikely event there is insufficient gas supply available in GB to meet demand, and should the market be unable to resolve the resultant imbalance, we have the tools required to ensure the safety and integrity of the gas system in the event of a Gas Supply Emergency.

“All possible measures would be taken to minimise the extent to which we use these tools”, National Grid said.

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‘What can I do if I don’t have money?’

What are those possible measures and what is a Gas Supply Emergency?

A Gas Supply Emergency can be activated in stages if suppliers are unable to guarantee gas for homes and businesses.

It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.

On the power side, the ability for coal-fired power stations to restart generation has been retained, the ESO previously announced, to help cover any imbalance between supply and demand for electricity.

It has been utilised, most recently, early this year because of poor wind power generation – due to a lack of… wind.

Read more: How much will my bills increase now the energy price cap comes into effect

So what does this all mean for the lights?

The message seems to be that the lights should not go out – but we need your help to achieve it.

The “demand flexibility service” will run from November to March and households can sign up via their energy supplier.

In return for not charging your electric car or running dishwashers, tumble driers or washing machines during times of peak energy use during the day, you will be paid.

It is expected to be implemented 12 times, whatever happens, to ensure people get rewarded for being part of the scheme.

It is hoped it will deliver 2GW of power savings to balance supply and demand, preventing any disruption.

Has anything like the ‘demand flexibility service’ been done before?

Yes, on a big scale for industrial users of energy. Companies can be paid not to use power during times of increased demand in order to balance electricity supply and demand.

A small-scale trial of incentivising households to reduce electricity at peak times was carried out earlier this year with energy company Octopus Energy.

From that trial, the National Grid has been able to say, “we successfully proved the proof of concept for a demand flexibility service”.

Work has been going on between the National Grid, suppliers, aggregators and consumer groups to scale up to making demand flexibility a national service.

Has this been done before anywhere else?

Countries across Europe have been working on plans to reduce their electricity demand.

Just last month France‘s national grid operator said it might have to ask households, local government and businesses to reduce their consumption at peak times. It aims to reduce electricity use by 10%.

Germany has planned to reduce its gas usage by 2% through a range of public and private measures. From last month most public buildings have not been heated above 19C, public monuments have not been lit up and heating private swimming pools has been banned.

Will electricity prices come down?

Not yet. The ESO said on Thursday that, notwithstanding the mitigation measures, it is “highly likely” that the wholesale price of gas and electricity will remain “very high” throughout winter.

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Liam Payne’s cause of death confirmed during UK inquest opening

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Liam Payne's cause of death confirmed during UK inquest opening

One Direction star Liam Payne died of multiple traumatic injuries, a UK inquest into his death has heard.

The 31-year-old singer, who died in October after falling from the third-floor balcony of a hotel in Buenos Aires, Argentina, was confirmed to have died of “polytrauma”, the inquest opening heard.

The hearing, which Buckinghamshire Coroner’s Court said was held on 17 December, was told it may take “some time” to establish how Payne died.

The inquest into Payne’s death in the UK has been adjourned until a pre-inquest review on 6 November, the coroner’s court said.

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Mourners gather for Payne’s funeral

Five people have been charged over Payne’s death at the Casa Sur Hotel on 16 October.

The hotel’s manager, a receptionist and a “representative” of Payne have been charged with negligent homicide (similar to manslaughter in UK law), Argentina’s National Criminal and Correctional Prosecutor’s Office previously said in a statement.

They are hotel manager Gilda Martin, receptionist Esteban Grassi and Payne’s “representative” Roger Nores.

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Two others, hotel employee Ezequiel Pereyra and waiter Braian Paiz, have been charged with supplying cocaine.

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Family and friends attended Payne’s funeral on 20 November, including his girlfriend Kate Cassidy and former partner Cheryl, with whom he had a son, Bear.

His One Direction bandmates, Harry Styles, Louis Tomlinson, Niall Horan and Zayn Malik also attended the private ceremony.

Senior Coroner Crispin Butler said during the inquest hearing: “Whilst there are ongoing investigations in Argentina into the circumstances of Liam’s death, over which I have no legal jurisdiction, it is anticipated that procuring the relevant information to address particularly how Liam came by his death may take some time through the formal channel of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.”

It comes after the star’s final hours were recently detailed by a judge and the Argentinian Public Prosecutor’s Office, who said in a statement Payne had been “demanding” drugs and alcohol during his stay at the hotel.

On 16 October, Payne was in the hotel lobby and “unable to stand” due to the “consumption of various substances”, the court document said.

The receptionist and two others “dragged” the singer to his room.

The document also reiterated the hypothesis that Payne had “tried to leave the room through the balcony and thus fell”.

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Plan to sanction people smuggling gangs is a bold and novel departure – but can the government make it bite?

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Plan to sanction people smuggling gangs is a bold and novel departure - but can the government make it bite?

So can you stop people smugglers by lumbering them with sanctions? That is the government’s latest idea, and it is bold and innovative.

It will certainly get attention, even if that doesn’t mean it will work. But it is another effort by this government to differentiate itself from the leaders who came before.

In a nutshell, the idea is to cut the financing to what the Foreign Office refers to as “organised immigration networks” and is intended to deter “smugglers from profiting off the trafficking of innocent people”.

So far, so convincing. The rhetoric is good. The reality may be more difficult.

For one thing, and we await actual details of what’s going to be done, this raises an enormous question of how this can be accomplished.

A view of small boats and outboard motors used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel at a warehouse facility in Dover.
Pic: PA
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A view of small boats and outboard motors used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel at a warehouse facility in Dover. Pic: PA

Some of the people smugglers bringing people across the Channel are based in Britain, but most aren’t. And as a general rule, they’re quite hard to track down.

I know that, because I’ve met some of them.

In Kurdistan, I drank tea with a cheerful man, Karwan, who had been responsible for smuggling a thousand people into Europe.

He had absolutely no fear of being caught, and no sense that he was even breaking the law.

The smuggling gang did not want to reveal their faces. From Parsons October 2023 shorthand
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The smuggling gang, who we met in October 2023, did not want to reveal their faces


We meet that afternoon. The smuggler, *Karwan, turns up with three other men, all members of his group - he doesn't like the word "gang" - and accepts the offer of a cup of hot tea. From Parsons VT for shorthand October 2023

Instead, Karwan considered that he was doing a duty to Kurds, allowing them to escape from the hardship of their nation to a more prosperous life in other countries, including Britain. Or, at least, that’s what he said.

How exactly Britain could impose sanctions on him is hard to imagine.

Nor is it hard to think of fear now creeping into the minds of the various smugglers I’ve met during years of reporting from the beaches of northern France.

These people are well aware that they’re breaking the law. You can hardly spend your time dodging French police and claim to be innocent.

Guns are becoming more commonplace in migrant camps. The spectre of sanctions won’t stop them.

Man suspected of supplying small boats for Channel migrant crossings arrested
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Life jackets allegedly belonging to a gang of people smugglers which were seized by police in November

So the question is whether the British government can track down the people at the very top of these organisations and find a way of levying financial sanctions that bite.

Presumably, if these people were in Britain, they’d be arrested, with the prospect of their assets being frozen.

So imposing sanctions will probably involve working alongside European countries, coordinating action and sharing information. A process that has become more complicated since Brexit.

Sanctions have previously worked well when targeted towards high-profile people and organisations with a clear track record.

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The oligarchs who have propped up Vladimir Putin’s regime, for instance, or companies trying to procure armaments for hostile states. All have been targeted by a coalition of nations.

But this idea is novel – unilateral for a start, even if, one assumes, the French, Germans, Belgians and others have been warned in advance.

It’s also not quite clear how it will work – organised crime is famously flexible and if you successfully sanction one person, then someone else is likely to take over.

As for levying sanctions on the smuggling leaders in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Albania and beyond – well, good luck.

An inflatable dinghy carrying migrants makes its way towards England in the English Channel.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
An inflatable dinghy carrying migrants makes its way towards England in the English Channel. Pic: Reuters

What it does is to draw that distinction between the recent past, when the Rwanda plan was the main ambition, and Keir Starmer’s reliance on focusing on criminality and working together with partners.

And one other note. For years, the government has talked about people crossing the Channel as illegal migrants, even though there is a dispute between UK and international law about whether these people are actually breaking the law.

Now the Foreign Office is using the term “irregular migration”. Is this a change of tone, or just a stylistic whim? Just as with the sanctions, we will wait and see.

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Senior Tory MP Sir David Davis calls for Lucy Letby retrial

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Senior Tory MP Sir David Davis calls for Lucy Letby retrial

A senior Conservative has called for a retrial for Lucy Letby, the nurse jailed for murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven others.

Former minister Sir David Davis has said he believes a retrial will “clear” her, as her conviction was “built on a poor understanding of probabilities” and lacked “hard evidence”.

He told MPs on Wednesday “there is case in justice” for a retrial, but admitted there was a problem.

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David Davis

Much of the expert analysis of the case notes he was referring to, was available at the time but not presented to the jury, he said.

That meant the Court of Appeal can dismiss it, “basically saying the defence should have presented it at the initial trial”.

In effect, he said, the court can say: “‘If your defence team weren’t good enough to present this evidence, hard luck you stay banged up for life’.”

Such an outcome “may be judicially convenient, but it’s not justice,” he said.

He said earlier: “There was no hard evidence against Letby, nobody saw her do anything untoward. The doctor’s gut feeling was based on a coincidence – she was on shift for a number of deaths, and this is important, although far from all of them, far from all of them.

“It was built on a poor understanding of probabilities, which could translate later into an influential but spectacularly flawed piece of evidence.”

Sir David said Letby’s case “horrified the nation” and that it “seemed clear a nurse had turned into a serial killer”.

“Now I initially accepted the tabloid characterisation of Letby as an evil monster, but then I was approached by many experts, leading statisticians, neonatal specialists, forensic scientists, legal experts and those who had served at Chester Hospital who were afraid to come forward,” he added.

These experts convinced Sir David that “false analyses and diagnoses” had been used to “persuade a lay jury” to find Letby guilty.

Responding to Sir David, Justice Minister Alex Davies-Jones said it is “an important principle of the rule of law that the Government does not interfere with judicial decisions”.

She added: “It is not appropriate for me or the government to comment on judicial processes nor the reliability of convictions or evidence.”

Ms Davies-Jones later told the Commons that Letby could apply to the Criminal Cases Review Commission if she believed she had been wrongly convicted.

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Letby, from Hereford, is serving 15 whole-life orders after she was convicted at Manchester Crown Court of murdering seven infants and attempting to murder seven others, with two attempts on one of her victims, between June 2015 and June 2016.

Letby, who was in her mid-20s and working at the Countess of Chester Hospital at the time of the murders, is now the UK’s most prolific child killer of modern times.

The 33-year-old killed her victims by injecting the infants with insulin or air or force-feeding them with milk.

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