Energy crisis: How worried should we be about the lights going out?

Published

2 years ago

October 6, 2022

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The latest information on the risks facing gas and electricity supplies suggests there is an increased risk of blackouts this winter – but they can be prevented.

National Grid’s Electricity System Operator’s (ESO) updated report on the pressures facing power generators revealed contingency plans for three-hour blackouts in areas where gas-fuelled power falls short of demand.

A separate National Grid Gas Transmission study suggested that the country would be relying more on LNG (liquefied natural gas) supplies from the US and Qatar this winter.

That is because of uncertainty over whether traditional EU imports would be available because of the squeeze on supplies in the bloc following Russia’s war in Ukraine – intensifying pressure on the UK power grid as a result.

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Here, Sky News examines the pressures on UK supplies, what may be done to help keep the lights on and just how perilous the country’s situation could become if a prolonged cold snap arrives.

How worried should I be about the outlook reports?

There is no getting away from the fact that these updates make for worse reading that the “early view” released by the ESO in July.

Then, it did not foresee the prospect of the lights going out, despite obvious pressure on supplies across Europe.

Thursday’s warning could not be starker, which is why they hope the risk of blackouts can be averted through an energy-saving scheme that will pay households not to use electricity-heavy products during peak hours and keep five coal-powered generators, that would otherwise have closed, open and on standby. More on the energy-saving scheme later.

Why is gas the main concern?

Gas-fired power stations account for more than 40% of UK electricity generation while gas is also responsible for heating the vast majority of homes.

Natural gas supplies have been severely disrupted since the war – forcing wholesale prices up and threatening much of continental Europe with shortages as most, such as Germany, have previously relied on gas from Russia.

While the UK holds its own in the warmer months, thanks to a mix of nuclear, wind, North Sea gas output and imports from Norway, Qatar and the US, we tend to lean more on the continent during winter to balance the gap between supply and demand.

This is because we lack gas storage.

But we have more gas than we need…

It’s true. Currently.

The UK has been exporting gas at record volumes since late spring to help EU nations fill their storage after Vladimir Putin turned off the taps.

The lack of gas storage, however, means that we tend to rely on imports in times of high demand such as winter.

Only 70% of British gas supplies last time around came from the North Sea and Norway. It meant that supplies via ship of LNG and from the continent accounted for the rest.

What are the main threats?

The big one has to be, energy experts agree, the risk of a prolonged cold snap.

Unplanned power station outages too, as well as the inability to import electricity from Europe if there are, for example, nuclear power plant outages in France or gas shortages across the continent. Gas shortages will reduce the ability for EU countries to generate electricity.

The Gas Winter Outlook saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe to impact the UK’s ability to secure imports, should they be required.

As a result, it saw LNG acting as the primary source of supply flexibility during the winter months.

“In the unlikely event there is insufficient gas supply available in GB to meet demand, and should the market be unable to resolve the resultant imbalance, we have the tools required to ensure the safety and integrity of the gas system in the event of a Gas Supply Emergency.

“All possible measures would be taken to minimise the extent to which we use these tools”, National Grid said.

What are those possible measures and what is a Gas Supply Emergency?

A Gas Supply Emergency can be activated in stages if suppliers are unable to guarantee gas for homes and businesses.

It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.

On the power side, the ability for coal-fired power stations to restart generation has been retained, the ESO previously announced, to help cover any imbalance between supply and demand for electricity.

It has been utilised, most recently, early this year because of poor wind power generation – due to a lack of… wind.

So what does this all mean for the lights?

The message seems to be that the lights should not go out – but we need your help to achieve it.

The “demand flexibility service” will run from November to March and households can sign up via their energy supplier.

In return for not charging your electric car or running dishwashers, tumble driers or washing machines during times of peak energy use during the day, you will be paid.

It is expected to be implemented 12 times, whatever happens, to ensure people get rewarded for being part of the scheme.

It is hoped it will deliver 2GW of power savings to balance supply and demand, preventing any disruption.

Has anything like the ‘demand flexibility service’ been done before?

Yes, on a big scale for industrial users of energy. Companies can be paid not to use power during times of increased demand in order to balance electricity supply and demand.

A small-scale trial of incentivising households to reduce electricity at peak times was carried out earlier this year with energy company Octopus Energy.

From that trial, the National Grid has been able to say, “we successfully proved the proof of concept for a demand flexibility service”.

Work has been going on between the National Grid, suppliers, aggregators and consumer groups to scale up to making demand flexibility a national service.

Has this been done before anywhere else?

Countries across Europe have been working on plans to reduce their electricity demand.

Just last month France‘s national grid operator said it might have to ask households, local government and businesses to reduce their consumption at peak times. It aims to reduce electricity use by 10%.

Germany has planned to reduce its gas usage by 2% through a range of public and private measures. From last month most public buildings have not been heated above 19C, public monuments have not been lit up and heating private swimming pools has been banned.

Will electricity prices come down?

Not yet. The ESO said on Thursday that, notwithstanding the mitigation measures, it is “highly likely” that the wholesale price of gas and electricity will remain “very high” throughout winter.

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Energy price cap falls today but £600 lift to annual bills ahead, report warns

Published

5 hours ago

June 30, 2024

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Energy price cap falls today but £600 lift to annual bills ahead, report warns

As the latest reduction in the energy price cap takes effect, households are being warned of a big lift in bills ahead due to higher wholesale gas prices.

The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge per unit of energy, fell by 7% overnight in the wake of the latest three-month review by industry regulator Ofgem.

The reduction meant that typical 12-month bills will be around £500 cheaper than a year ago.

It left the average bill at £1,568 – a figure that will apply until the result of the next review takes effect in October.

However, a report by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said on Monday that consumers should brace for an additional hit of up to £600 over the coming winter, largely due to higher wholesale prices.

It pointed to a possible £200 price cap hike from October on the back of some analyst calculations, suggesting it was plausible the total could remain around that level until June.

One calculation, by experts at Cornwall Insight and released on Friday, predicted a 10% – or £155 – increase from 1 October to £1,723 a year but said there remained uncertainty on the market path ahead.

Consumer groups say there is an alternative to the price cap, pointing to a growing number of fixed-rate deals on the market following a dearth of competition in recent years.

European wholesale costs are again elevated for the time of year based on pre-energy shock norms.

Recent pressures have included strong competition from Asia, particularly China, for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

That has replaced some of the Russian natural gas volumes that were stripped away in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

A planned extension of the European Union’s sanctions regime against Russia will see its LNG exports targeted for the first time – potentially placing further pressure on supply across the continent.

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UK household costs for both gas and electricity stood at an average of just below £1,090 ahead of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The ECIU report said: “By September 2025, the average household could have paid an extra £2,600 on energy bills during the ongoing gas crisis.

“With the government also spending £1,400 per home earlier in the crisis, the total extra costs could be £4,000 per home, and counting.”

Energy has been among the big battlegrounds of the election.

Much of the debate has centred on costs but the impact of gas use in particular has fuelled argument too on the UK’s climate commitments.

Dr Simon Cran-McGreehin, head of analysis at ECIU, said: “The UK’s high dependence on gas for electricity generation and heating has cost bill payers £2,000 so far during the gas crisis and the economy as a whole tens of billions of pounds.

“Common sense measures like investing in insulating the poorest homes, switching to electric heat pumps and fast-tracking British renewables will leave us less vulnerable to the whims of the international gas markets.

“North Sea gas output is declining so unless we make the switch we’ll be ever more dependent on foreign imports.

“The maths is clear, when it comes to energy independence, new drilling licences are a side show making a marginal difference compared to the immense quantity of homegrown energy that offshore wind and other renewables can generate.”

Emily Seymour, the editor of Which? Energy, said: “Consumers will be relieved to hear that the price cap is dropping by around £122 for the typical household from 1st July.”

She added: “With the price cap predicted to rise again in October, many consumers will also be wondering whether to fix their energy deal.

“There’s no ‘one size fits all’ approach but the first step is to compare your monthly payments on the price cap to any fixed deals to see what the best option is for you.

“As a rule of thumb, if you want to fix, we’d recommend looking for deals as close to the July price cap as possible, not longer than 12 months and without significant exit fees.”

Business

Boots chief James to run ophthalmology chain Veonet

Published

17 hours ago

June 30, 2024

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Boots chief James to run ophthalmology chain Veonet

The outgoing boss of Boots is leaving to run Veonet, one of Europe’s largest chains of ophthalmology clinics.

Sky News has learnt that Sebastian James is to become the new group chief executive of Veonet, which is owned by the private equity firm PAI Partners and Canada’s Ontario Teachers Pension Plan.

He will leave Boots in November, as Sky News revealed on Saturday, and will join Veonet soon afterwards, insiders said.

Veonet was acquired by its current owners in early 2022 from Nordic Capital, another buyout firm.

In the UK, Veonet owns SpaMedica, which performs eye operations such as cataract removals for the NHS.

Overall, the group provides eye care services to more than 2m patients annually across five European markets, including Germany, the Netherlands and Spain.

Dr Markus Hamm, the current Veonet CEO, is retiring but will remain on its board.

Mr James is leaving Boots after its parent, Walgreens Boots Alliance, abandoned plans to sell or float the pharmacy chain for a second time in two years.

His departure will come during the retailer’s 175th anniversary year.

An announcement about his exit from Boots and appointment at Veonet is expected to be made early this week.

Veonet could not be reached for comment, while both PAI and OTPP declined to comment.

Business

Boots chief James quits after owner’s £5bn sale plan stalls

Published

2 days ago

June 29, 2024

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Boots chief James quits after owner's £5bn sale plan stalls

The chief executive of Boots, Britain’s biggest high street pharmacy chain, is quitting after its owner’s plans for a £5bn sale or stock market listing stalled.

Sky News has learnt that Sebastian James, who has run Boots since 2018, will leave the company in November.

City sources said this weekend that he had accepted a new role in the healthcare industry.

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His exit comes soon after it emerged that New York-listed Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), the British retailer’s owner, had decided for the second time in two years against pursuing a sale or stock market flotation of the chain.

An announcement about Mr James’s departure is expected in the coming days.

WBA is not yet thought to have lined up a successor.

Mr James, who previously ran the electricals retailer Dixons (now named Currys), recently endorsed Sir Keir Starmer – a notable move because of his long friendship with Lord Cameron, the foreign secretary.

His departure from Boots will come during the Nottingham-based company’s 175th year.

Boots employs about 52,000 people and trades from roughly 1,900 stores.

Its recent trading performance has been strong, with WBA this week saying that like-for-like sales at Boots during the quarter to the end of May rose by 6% and 5.8% across its retail and pharmacy operations respectively.

An insider said Mr James had overseen a successful turnaround, with market share having grown for 13 successive quarters.

It has been a rare bright spot for WBA, which has had a torrid time and has seen its shares slump.

A WBA spokesperson said this week: “As Walgreens Boots Alliance continues a strategic review of the Company’s assets, we took a critical look at Boots.

“While we believe there is significant interest in this business at the right time, Boots’ growth, strategic strength and cashflow remain key contributors to Walgreens Boots Alliance.

“We are committed to continuing to invest in Boots UK and to find innovative ways for this business to fulfill its potential.”

During a previous auction in 2022, only one bidder – a consortium of Apollo Global Management and Reliance Industries – tabling a formal offer worth about £5.5bn.

However, growing concerns about the global economy had triggered severe doubts among large banks which help finance leveraged buyouts, with Boots among the biggest such deals in Europe.

Among the other challenges facing prospective acquirers at the time was finding an adequate solution for Boots’ £8bn pension scheme – one of the largest private retirement funds in the UK.

This issue has now been resolved through an insurance deal struck with Legal & General.

Like many retailers, Boots had a turbulent pandemic, announcing 4,000 job cuts in 2020 as a consequence of a restructuring of its Nottingham head office and store management teams.

Shortly before the COVID pandemic, Boots earmarked about 200 of its UK stores for closure, a reflection of changing shopping habits.

Boots’ heritage dates back to John Boot opening a herbal remedies store in Nottingham in 1849.

It opened its 1000th UK store in 1933.

In 2006, Boots merged with Alliance Unichem, a drug wholesaler, with the buyout firm KKR acquiring the combined group in an £11bn deal the following year.

In 2012, Walgreens acquired a 45% stake in Alliance Boots, completing its buyout of the business two years later.

Boots declined to comment on Mr James’s exit on Saturday.