The country has been put on notice that the chances of gas shortages this winter have risen markedly, prompting a contingency plan to prioritise heating.
National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) warned that planned three-hour power blackouts could be imposed in some areas, in the “unlikely” event supplies of gas fall short of demand.
It revealed the measure in an update on the UK’s state of energy readiness for the cold months ahead but it said that the risk of temporary power cuts could be avoided with help from the public.
The report showed, under a base case scenario, that margins between peak demand and power supply were expected to be sufficient and similar to recent years thanks to secure North Sea gas supplies, imports via Norway and by ship.
The ESO urged households to help manage that balance by signing up to an energy-saving scheme through their supplier, in a bid to help ease the risk of the lights going out.
The “demand flexibility service”, due to start next month, will see bill-payers be paid to save energy during peak hours.
More on Energy Crisis
Related Topics:
Coal generators, that the operator said would have otherwise closed, will be used to maintain supply. In an effort to generate enough power to supply 600,000 homes the ESO is securing contracts with three generators to keep five coal units open and on standby.
A separate study by National Grid Gas Transmission, which is a separate business to the ESO, saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe – as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine – to impact the UK’s usual ability to attract imports.
Advertisement
It suggested gas needed to power the UK’s electricity grid was expected to rise by nearly 22% – offsetting savings from lower household and business use – largely because of a need for power in France where many nuclear plants are offline.
It saw LNG (liquefied natural gas) from the US and Qatar acting as the new primary source of supply flexibility.
Gas accounts for over 40% of UK power generation – more if the wind fails to blow and other plants are offline for maintenance.
The ESO’s report marked a darkening in the prospect for disruption in the months ahead following a comparatively rosy early view report in July.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:58
Risk of emergency gas shortage
There was a clear sign of a shift in direction earlier this week when it emerged that the energy regulator Ofgem had warned of a “significant risk” of a gas supply emergency.
It blamed the international scramble for supplies because of the war, which has starved continental Europe of its main source of natural gas.
A gas supply emergency can be declared when suppliers are unable to safely get gas to homes and businesses.
It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.
The aim would be to keep gas and gas-generated electricity supplies stable for households for as long as possible.
For the electricity market, coal-fired power stations can be brought back online under what is known as a system notice to help fill stopgaps. This has traditionally happened when nuclear plants go offline or the wind fails to blow.
The hope is that these sorts of measures will not be necessary because of the looming demand flexibility service.
It is expected to be implemented at least 12 times, whatever happens, from November to March to ensure a benefit for signatories.
The ESO’s director of corporate affairs, Jake Rigg, said: “If you put your washing machine or other electrical appliances on at night instead of the peak in the early evening, you can get some money back when we all need it.”
Energy bills have rocketed this year but now come under the protection of government caps on wholesale costs, shielding both households and businesses from the worst in the price surge ahead of winter.
It means the taxpayer will foot the bill for wholesale prices above the unit cap level.
The scheme does not cap your bill, which will continue to depend on the amount of energy used.
An Ofgem spokesperson said of the National Grid reports: “We have one of the most reliable energy systems in the world and we are in a favourable position.
“However, it is incumbent on a responsible and prudent energy sector to ensure the right contingency measures are in place, which is why we are working with the government, National Grid and key partners to protect consumers, so that Great Britain is fully prepared for any challenges this winter.”
The UK will buy up to 7,000 long-range missiles, rockets and drones and build at least six weapons factories in a £1.5bn push to rearm at a time of growing threats.
The plan, announced by the government over the weekend, will form part of Sir Keir Starmer’s long-awaited Strategic Defence Review, which will be published on Monday.
However, it lacks key details, including when the first arms plant will be built, when the first missile will be made, or even what kind of missiles, drones and rockets will be purchased.
The government is yet to appoint a new senior leader to take on the job of “national armaments director”, who will oversee the whole effort.
Andy Start, the incumbent head of Defence Equipment and Support – the branch of defence charged with buying kit – is still doing the beefed-up role of national armaments director as a sluggish process to recruit someone externally rumbles on.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a presentation of Ukrainian military drones. Pic: Reuters
Revealing some of its content ahead of time, the Ministry of Defence said the defence review will recommend an “always on” production capacity for munitions, drawing on lessons learned from Ukraine, which has demonstrated the vital importance of large production lines.
It will also call for an increase in stockpiles of munitions – something that is vitally needed for the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force to be able to keep fighting beyond a few days.
“The hard-fought lessons from [Vladimir] Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine show a military is only as strong as the industry that stands behind them,” John Healey, the defence secretary, said in a statement released on Saturday night.
“We are strengthening the UK’s industrial base to better deter our adversaries and make the UK secure at home and strong abroad.”
Image: Army Commandos load a 105mm Howitzer in Norway. Pic: Ministry of Defence/PA
The UK used to have a far more resilient defence industry during the Cold War, with the capacity to manufacture missiles and other weapons and ammunition at speed and at scale.
However, much of that depth, which costs money to sustain, was lost following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when successive governments switched funding priorities away from defence and into areas such as health, welfare and economic growth.
Even after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and a huge increase in demand from Kyiv for munitions from its allies, production lines at UK factories were slow to expand.
Image: A reaper drone in the Middle East. Pic: Ministry of Defence
Sky News visited a plant run by the defence company Thales in Belfast last year that makes N-LAW anti-tank missiles used in Ukraine. Its staff at the time only worked weekday shifts between 7am and 4pm.
Under this new initiative, the government said the UK will build at least six new “munitions and energetics” factories.
Energetic materials include explosives, propellants and pyrotechnics, which are required in the manufacturing of weapons.
There were no details, however, on whether these will be national factories or built in partnership with defence companies, or a timeline for this to happen.
There was also no information on where they would be located or what kind of weapons they would make.
Image: King Charles visits HMS Prince of Wales. Pic: PO Phot Rory Arnold/Ministry of Defence/PA
In addition, it was announced that the UK will buy “up to 7,000 UK-built long-range weapons for the UK Armed Forces”, though again without specifying what.
It is understood these weapons will include a mix of missiles, rockets and drones.
Sources within the defence industry criticised the lack of detail, which is so often the case with announcements by the Ministry of Defence.
The sources said small and medium-sized companies in particular are struggling to survive as they await clarity from the Ministry of Defence over a range of different contracts.
One source described a sense of “paralysis”.
The prime minister launched the defence review last July, almost a year ago. But there had been a sense of drift within the Ministry of Defence beforehand, in the run-up to last year’s general election.
The source said: “While the government’s intentions are laudable, the lack of detail in this announcement is indicative of how we treat defence in this country.
“Headline figures, unmatched by clear intent and delivery timelines which ultimately leave industry no closer to knowing what, or when, the MOD want their bombs and bullets.
“After nearly 18 months of decision and spending paralysis, what we need now is a clear demand signal from the Ministry of Defence that allows industry to start scaling production, not grand gestures with nothing to back it up.”
As well as rearming the nation, the government said the £1.5bn investment in new factories and weapons would create around 1,800 jobs across the UK.
A leading British palliative care consultant has described the assisted dying bill as “not fit for purpose” and is urging MPs to stop the bill from progressing any further.
Rejecting assurances from supporters of assisted dying who claim the proposed British version would be based on the scheme used in the American state of Oregon – widely regarded as the model with the most safeguards – Dr Amy Proffitt said “it’s far from a safe system”.
“The majority, 80% of the people that have assisted death have government insurance with Medicaid or Medicare suggesting that the vulnerable in society are not worth it,” she said.
“Put that into our NHS and what does it say about us as a society… those with disability, those with learning disabilities, those with social deprivation?”
Image: Oregon’s assisted dying method is ‘far from a safe system,’ Dr Amy Proffitt said
Dr Proffitt added: “I think it’s deeply dangerous for the bill that has been proposed and it needs to be scrapped and we go back and look again.”
She and other leading palliative care doctors have expressed concern about the erosion of end of life care if the bill passes. It is a fear expressed by Britain’s hospice sector.
Dr Ted Gruber, a retired Oregondoctor who has assisted numerous assisted deaths, says those fears have not been realised and the state’s hospice sector has strengthened since the introduction of assisted dying in Oregon in 1994.
He says he has never had any doubts about his role as a physician who assists a patient’s death.
“I’ve never been conflicted,” he explains. “I’ve attended a number of them.
“Each of the ones I’ve attended has been almost sacred if you will, it’s hard to explain but with the family there, the family dog in the bed, with the music playing that they want.
“Everyone’s sad, everyone’s crying, it’s not a joyful moment but in a way it’s kind of a sacred moment.”
Image: Dr Ted Gruber told Sky News ‘I’ve never been conflicted’ about assisted dying
Oregon’s assisted dying laws have not seen the same number of changes to widen the cohort groups who would qualify for an assisted death in the way, for example, Canada has.
So it has managed to steer clear of the “slippery slope” criticism levelled at other programmes.
Dr Gruber also said the assisted death scheme in Oregon had enhanced the patient-physician relationship.
“The role of the doctor who is attending the dying patient is one of listening and paying attention to what the needs of the dying patient are and it’s eroded when the patient can’t trust the doctor,” he said.
“When I’ve seen a patient who has tried to talk to a doctor about aid in dying and they’re like ‘oh, I won’t do that, I’m opposed to it’… well that doesn’t enhance a doctor-patient relationship, it will be enhanced when a doctor says let’s talk about why you want to ask that.”
Oregon’s assisted death model is the closest to what is being proposed in the UK.
Both require it to apply only to adults who are terminally ill, mentally competent, and have six months to live or less, and to take the drugs themselves.
But while Oregon cases are reviewed by two doctors, in the UK they would be reviewed by a panel including a psychiatrist, a social worker and a legal professional.
In Oregon, the drugs are posted to the individual for them to take when ready, whereas in the UK, a healthcare professional would bring them on the day of the planned death.
Marcy Lehman’s father Ted was “her hero, the person I looked up to’. An Oregon doctor, he chose to have an assisted death at home in Portland surrounded by his family.
Marcy was there by his side. And it was for her, her mother and ultimately her father, the right decision.
“This was my hero, the person I looked up to, and now the roles were switched and I was taking care of him, and I had to be his hero,” Marcy said.
She explained that his stomach cancer “was starting to work up his system so he couldn’t eat.”
“My dad was a strong person and stronger even up until his death,” Marcy added.
Image: ‘He didn’t want someone to have to go to the bathroom with him,’ Marcy Lehman said
“He didn’t want someone to have to go to the bathroom with him to help with that or to feed him that wasn’t what he wanted – yeah, he was in pain, he could endure the pain, but it was really more the dignified way he wanted to leave this Earth.”
Ted’s family are grateful that they live in a state where assisted death is allowed. It’s a choice they would make again if they had to.
Now the UK must soon decide if that same choice is made available over here.
The Terminally Ill Adults (End Of Life) Bill was introduced to the House of Commons last October. Later next month, MPs will be asked to vote again in a ballot that will decide the fate of the proposed legislation.
As a ban on the sale of disposable vapes comes into force on Sunday, a doctor who set up the first-ever clinic to help children stop vaping has said she has seen patients so addicted they couldn’t sleep through the night without them.
Professor Rachel Isba established the clinic at Alder Hey Hospital in Liverpool in January and has now seen several patients as young as 11 years old who are nicotine dependent.
“Some of the young people vape before they get out of bed. They are sleeping with them under their pillow,” she told Sky News.
Image: Professor Rachel Isba set up the first-ever stop vaping clinic for children
“I’m hearing stories of some children waking up at three o’clock in the morning, thinking they can’t sleep, thinking the vape will help them get back to sleep. Whereas, actually, that’s the complete opposite of how nicotine works.”
Ms Isba said most of her patients use disposable vapes, and while some young people may use the chance to give up, others will simply move to refillable devices after the ban.
“To me, vaping feels quite a lot like the beginning of smoking. I’m not surprised, but disappointed on behalf of the children that history has repeated itself.”
A government ban on single-use vapes comes into effect from Sunday, prohibiting the sale of disposable vaping products across the UK, both online and in-store, whether or not they contain nicotine.
More on Children
Related Topics:
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said usage among young vapers remained too high, and the ban would “put an end to their alarming rise in school playgrounds and the avalanche of rubbish flooding the nation’s streets”.
Image: Pic: PA
Circular economy minister Mary Creagh said: “For too long, single-use vapes have blighted our streets as litter and hooked our children on nicotine. That ends today. The government calls time on these nasty devices.”
At nearby Shrewsbury House Youth Club in Everton, a group of 11 and 12-year-old girls said vape addiction is already rife among their friends.
Yasmin Dumbell said: “Every day we go out, and at least someone has a vape. I know people who started in year five. It’s constantly in their hand.”
Image: Yasmin Dumbell says she knows students who started vaping in year five
Her friend Una Quayle said metal detectors were installed at her school to try to stop pupils bringing in vapes, and they are having special assemblies about the dangers of the devices.
But, she said, students “find ways to get around the scanners though – they hide them in their shorts and go to the bathroom and do it”.
Image: Una Quayle says metal detectors installed at her school won’t stop students using vapes
The girls said the ban on disposables is unlikely to make a difference for their friends who are already addicted.
According to Una, they’ll “find a way to get nicotine into their system”.
As well as trying to address the rise in young people vaping, the government hopes banning single-use vapes will reduce some of the environmental impact the devices have.
Although all vapes can be recycled, only a tiny proportion are – with around eight million a week ending up in the bin or on the floor.
Pulled apart by hand
Even those that are recycled have to be pulled apart by hand, as there is currently no way to automate the process.
Scott Butler, executive director of Material Focus, a recycling non-profit group, said vapes were “some of the most environmentally wasteful, damaging, dangerous consumer products ever sold”.
His organisation worries that with new, legal models being designed to almost exactly mimic disposables in look and feel – and being sold for a similar price – people will just keep throwing them away.
He said the behaviour “is too ingrained. The general public have been told ‘vapes are disposable’. They’ve even been marketed this way. But they never were disposable”.