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The country has been put on notice that the chances of gas shortages this winter have risen markedly, prompting a contingency plan to prioritise heating.

National Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) warned that planned three-hour power blackouts could be imposed in some areas, in the “unlikely” event supplies of gas fall short of demand.

It revealed the measure in an update on the UK’s state of energy readiness for the cold months ahead but it said that the risk of temporary power cuts could be avoided with help from the public.

The report showed, under a base case scenario, that margins between peak demand and power supply were expected to be sufficient and similar to recent years thanks to secure North Sea gas supplies, imports via Norway and by ship.

Electricity cables and pylons lit by the evening sun

Cost of living latest

It comes as EU countries formally agreed to a voluntary 10% cut in gross electricity consumption and a mandatory reduction of 5% during peak hours – in what have been labelled “extraordinary measures”.

The European Council said: “Member states will identify 10% of their peak hours between 1 December 2022 and 31 March 2023 during which they will reduce the demand.

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“Member states will be free to choose the appropriate measures to reduce consumption for both targets in this period.”

The ESO urged households to help manage that balance by signing up to an energy-saving scheme through their supplier, in a bid to help ease the risk of the lights going out.

The “demand flexibility service”, due to start next month, will see bill-payers be paid to save energy during peak hours.

Coal generators, that the operator said would have otherwise closed, will be used to maintain supply. In an effort to generate enough power to supply 600,000 homes the ESO is securing contracts with three generators to keep five coal units open and on standby.

A separate study by National Grid Gas Transmission, which is a separate business to the ESO, saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe – as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine – to impact the UK’s usual ability to attract imports.

It suggested gas needed to power the UK’s electricity grid was expected to rise by nearly 22% – offsetting savings from lower household and business use – largely because of a need for power in France where many nuclear plants are offline.

It saw LNG (liquefied natural gas) from the US and Qatar acting as the new primary source of supply flexibility.

Gas accounts for over 40% of UK power generation – more if the wind fails to blow and other plants are offline for maintenance.

The ESO’s report marked a darkening in the prospect for disruption in the months ahead following a comparatively rosy early view report in July.

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Risk of emergency gas shortage

There was a clear sign of a shift in direction earlier this week when it emerged that the energy regulator Ofgem had warned of a “significant risk” of a gas supply emergency.

It blamed the international scramble for supplies because of the war, which has starved continental Europe of its main source of natural gas.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Liz Truss refused to reiterate a promise she made during the Tory leadership election that there will not be blackouts this winter.

Pushed to repeat that promise, she told reporters in Prague: “Well what we’re clear about is we do have a good supply of energy in the UK, we’re in a much better position than many other countries.

“But of course there’s always more we can do.”

A gas supply emergency can be declared when suppliers are unable to safely get gas to homes and businesses.

It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.

The aim would be to keep gas and gas-generated electricity supplies stable for households for as long as possible.

For the electricity market, coal-fired power stations can be brought back online under what is known as a system notice to help fill stopgaps. This has traditionally happened when nuclear plants go offline or the wind fails to blow.

The hope is that these sorts of measures will not be necessary because of the looming demand flexibility service.

It is expected to be implemented at least 12 times, whatever happens, from November to March to ensure a benefit for signatories.

The ESO’s director of corporate affairs, Jake Rigg, said: “If you put your washing machine or other electrical appliances on at night instead of the peak in the early evening, you can get some money back when we all need it.”

Energy bills have rocketed this year but now come under the protection of government caps on wholesale costs, shielding both households and businesses from the worst in the price surge ahead of winter.

It means the taxpayer will foot the bill for wholesale prices above the unit cap level.

The scheme does not cap your bill, which will continue to depend on the amount of energy used.

An Ofgem spokesperson said of the National Grid reports: “We have one of the most reliable energy systems in the world and we are in a favourable position.

“However, it is incumbent on a responsible and prudent energy sector to ensure the right contingency measures are in place, which is why we are working with the government, National Grid and key partners to protect consumers, so that Great Britain is fully prepared for any challenges this winter.”

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Royal Navy chief gives stark warning: Fund defence or risk losing Atlantic to Russia

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Royal Navy chief gives stark warning: Fund defence or risk losing Atlantic to Russia

The head of the Royal Navy has warned the government to “step up” and fund defence or risk losing the UK’s superiority in the Atlantic to Russia.

Should that happen, General Sir Gwyn Jenkins said it would be the first time since the end of the Second World War that Britain’s warships and submarines were not the dominant force in their most vital sea lanes alongside their allies.

“We are holding on, but not by much,” he told a conference in London on Monday.

“There is no room for complacency. Our would-be opponents are investing billions. We have to step up, or we will lose that advantage.”

As a senior, serving military officer speaking publicly, he did not make any direct criticism of the speed of plans by Sir Keir Starmer’s government to increase defence spending.

But Sky News has reported that he and his fellow chiefs held a “very difficult meeting” last month over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts.

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Budget: what about defence spending?

Defence sources said there was growing concern at the very top of the armed forces about a gap between the promises being made by the prime minister to fix the UK’s hollowed-out defences and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise and transform the armed forces might need to be curbed, despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China, and pressure from Donald Trump on allies to spend more on their own defences.

A Sky News and Tortoise podcast series called The Wargame tracks the hollowing out of the UK’s military since the end of the Cold War and the risk that has created.

👉Search for The Wargame on your podcast app👈

General Jenkins, the first Royal Marine to serve as First Sea Lord, used a speech at the Sea Power Conference to say that Russia is still investing billions in its naval capabilities – in particular the Northern Fleet that operates in the Atlantic – even as it wages war against Ukraine.

There has been a 30% increase in Russian incursions in the North Atlantic in the past two years, he said.

That included the Yantar spy ship, which last month was spotted off the coast of Scotland and even shone a laser at the pilots of a Royal Air Force reconnaissance plane that was tracking the vessel.

The Russian spy ship Yantar. Pic: MOD/PA
Image:
The Russian spy ship Yantar. Pic: MOD/PA

Yet General Jenkins said what Russia is doing beneath the surface of the waves, where the UK and its allies store vital communications cables as well as critical oil and gas pipelines, was even more concerning.

“I can also tell you today that the advantage that we have enjoyed in the Atlantic since the end of the Second World War is at risk,” he said.

Read more:
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Does Britain’s threat to Russia ring hollow?

HMS Iron Duke shadowing the Russian Frigate Neustrashimy through UK waters in September. Pic: PA
Image:
HMS Iron Duke shadowing the Russian Frigate Neustrashimy through UK waters in September. Pic: PA

Navy facing huge challenges

It is a particularly tough time for the navy, which has more ships and submarines alongside and unable to operate than at sea or at least ready to sail.

The service is also suffering from a shortage of sailors and in particular submariners, which again is impacting the availability of the fleet.

The crisis follows decades of funding cuts since the end of the Cold War, compounded by a litany of botched procurement programmes that has all too often seen vessels coming into service years late, at an inflated price and in too few numbers.

Vision of ‘hybrid navy’

Despite the sombre tone, the First Sea Lord set out how he wants to transform his service and make it ready to fight a war – though not until 2029, a timeline that could be too slow if some predictions about the threat posed by Russia to NATO are correct.

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New UK military technology unveiled

His vision – working with industry and other allies – is about developing a blend of manned ships and submarines as well as unmanned ones – a “hybrid navy”.

He is also stripping back what he called the navy’s own bureaucracies to enable the service to move much faster – crucially at the pace of the threat and the pace of rapid and growing technological change.

“We will face headwinds, we will face rough seas, but together, we can solve these problems if we have the appetite, if we have the determination, and if we have the mindset.”

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Teen Afghan asylum seekers locked up for raping girl

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Teen Afghan asylum seekers locked up for raping girl

Two teenage asylum seekers from Afghanistan face possible deportation after being detained for abducting and raping a 15-year-old girl.

Jan Jahanzeb and Israr Niazal, both 17, led the “highly-distressed” victim away from friends near Leamington town centre to a secluded “den-type” area in parkland, where they pushed her to the ground and attacked her.

Sentencing the pair at Warwick Crown Court on Monday, Judge Sylvia de Bertodano said they ignored the victim’s “vigorous protests” and told them what they did “changed her life forever”.

“No child should have to suffer the ordeal that she suffered. It’s clear from the footage we have seen that no one can seriously entertain the thought that you believed she was consenting,” she said.

“You both knew perfectly well that what you were doing was criminal and wrong,” the judge added.

‘Highly distressing’

After lifting reporting restrictions protecting the identities of the defendants, the judge told them they had “betrayed” those who come to Britain seeking sanctuary and who observed the law.

Both defendants were unaccompanied child asylum seekers who arrived in the UK last year, prosecutor Shawn Williams said.

The incident happened in May of this year.

“Highly distressing” phone video found by police showed the victim screamed for help, but Jahanzeb placed his hand over her mouth.

CCTV footage showed that after being led away against her will, the terrified victim was “moved to a bushy den-type area – a really secluded location” before, according to her, she was “pushed to her knees before being raped”.

“The prosecution case is that it was probably Jahanzeb that did that, but what is certain is that Israr Niazal was present and participating,” Mr Williams said.

The victim had made “explicit verbal protests” during what Mr Williams described as an abduction.

What are their sentences?

Jahanzeb, who has already been served with deportation notification papers, was given 10 years, eight months’ youth detention.

Niazal, who may also be deported, was sentenced to nine years and 10 months.

They will start their sentences in a young offenders’ institution and move to prison at a later date, police said.

Both pleaded guilty to rape at an earlier hearing.

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Detective Chief Inspector Richard Hobbs said the offenders “went out of their way to befriend the victim with the intention of raping her”.

“The length of their sentence reflects the severity of their crime and the need to protect the public from them,” he added.

After sentence was passed, Judge de Bertodano said the victim had been “beyond brave” in attending court at a previous stage, when the defendants had intended to plead not guilty.

They were both ordered to register as sex offenders.

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‘Striking’ new artwork for UK trains revealed – as MPs debate rail nationalisation

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'Striking' new artwork for UK trains revealed - as MPs debate rail nationalisation

A “striking” new design for UK trains has been revealed by the transport secretary – but you may well think it looks familiar.

Train services already in public ownership will begin to adopt a Union flag-inspired design from this spring, Heidi Alexander has confirmed.

It’s part of the government’s efforts to nationalise most passenger rail services in the UK and run them under the new Great British Railways (GBR) brand – with its logo to be unveiled later today.

Ms Alexander will be speaking more about GBR – which is due to be formally established in 2027 – on Mornings With Ridge And Frost from around 7.10am.

The new Great British Railways logo has drawn on the original logo of British Rail from 1965.
Pic: Dovetail Games.
Image:
The new Great British Railways logo has drawn on the original logo of British Rail from 1965.
Pic: Dovetail Games.

Haven’t I seen this somewhere before?

The branding features the familiar double arrow symbol used by British Rail when the country’s trains were last state-owned.

A spokesperson for the Department for Transport (DfT) said the “iconic” symbol has been incorporated into the new GBR logo to reflect “Britain’s proud railway heritage”.

Ms Alexander has insisted it “isn’t just a paint job”, saying: “It represents a new railway, casting off the frustrations of the past and focused entirely on delivering a proper public service for passengers.”

Special one-day public exhibition launched

People in the capital will be able to see the new train livery for themselves today, with a special one-day exhibit being held at London Bridge station, where a GBR-branded Hornby model train will be on display.

The government has also partnered with a gaming company to create mock-ups of the new design, and those at the station will be able to see a digital demonstration of the new artwork in Train Sim World 6.

The new designs will also be beamed on to digital display boards over the coming days at Manchester Piccadilly, Birmingham New Street, Glasgow Central, and Leeds City.

People in the capital will be able to see a mock-up of a train in the new livery in a Train Sim World 6 game.
Pic: Dovetail Games.
Image:
People in the capital will be able to see a mock-up of a train in the new livery in a Train Sim World 6 game.
Pic: Dovetail Games.

It comes as MPs prepare to debate the government’s Railways Bill in the Commons.

The government has taken control of seven major operators so far, but has pledged to return all passenger services to public ownership as contracts with existing operators expire or are broken through a failure to deliver.

Read more:
What is Labour’s rail nationalisation plan?

Rail fares frozen for first time in 30 years

What will nationalisation actually involve?

The government has said its Railways Bill will bring 17 different organisations together and will also lead to greater accountability, better services and an easier way to buy tickets.

Among the measures is the creation of a GBR app, where passengers will be able to check train times and buy tickets without booking fees, while those with disabilities will be able to also request assistance.

A new 'one-stop shop' app will be launched as part of the scheme.
Pic: Department for Transport
Image:
A new ‘one-stop shop’ app will be launched as part of the scheme.
Pic: Department for Transport

The draft law would also beef up accountability by creating a strengthened Passenger Watchdog, while GBR would operate both services and maintain the railways themselves.

Ministers have pointed to improvements to existing services since they have been nationalised, such as South Western Railway boosting capacity by almost 10% by quadrupling its number of Arterio trains in service.

A new East Coast Main Line timetable will also come into effect this month, which the government says will lead to 10,000 extra LNER services every year, or roughly 60,000 extra seats a week.

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