How a wave of fast, young defensemen is changing the NHL
LAS VEGAS — Roman Josi was kind of joking. But he also kind of wasn’t upon assessing what the Norris Trophy landscape could look like over the next decade.
Josi, who won the Norris as the NHL’s top defenseman after the 2019-20 season, would know. The 31-year-old Nashville Predators captain appeared to be in position to capture a second Norris last season, when he scored 23 goals, amassed 96 points and averaged more than 25 minutes per game.
Then came Cale Makar. The 23-year-old Colorado Avalanche star dazzled throughout the season in scoring 28 goals, accruing 86 points and also averaging more than 25 minutes per game.
Josi had more first- and third-place votes, but Makar, in his third NHL season, came away with his first Norris by a difference of 25 points.
“He could have left me that one, right? Because he’s probably going to win 10 in the next 10 years,” Josi said. “Last year, there were so many guys who had unbelievable years and it is going to be the same going forward. There are more and more guys coming. It’s going to be a huge challenge. It’s also going to be a lot of fun.”
Josi has a point. The year before Makar won, New York Rangers star Adam Fox took home the Norris as a 23-year-old. The achievements of Fox and Makar add to a growing belief that the impact the young, puck-moving defensemen will have on the NHL is only beginning.
Think about the blue-line talent age 25 or younger. It started with the “older group” featuring Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, Charlie McAvoy, Mikhail Sergachev and Zach Werenski. They were soon followed by a second wave led by Evan Bouchard, Rasmus Dahlin, Noah Dobson, Miro Heiskanen, Quinn Hughes, Fox and Makar. Now a third group is starting to emerge with players such as Bowen Byram, Jamie Drysdale and reigning Calder Trophy winner Moritz Seider at the vanguard, with others such as Luke Hughes, Owen Power and Jake Sanderson potentially on the verge of breaking through.
Many of them are not old enough to rent a car without signing a waiver, but they are playing a role in driving discussion about where this league is heading.
“Growing up, I felt like that was kind of the way the game was heading,” said Werenski, who was drafted eighth overall by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2015. “A lot of defensemen were puck-moving. I played at the U.S National Team [Development Program] with Noah Hanifin and Charlie McAvoy, guys who play similar styles to me. Now you see Cale Makar and Roman Josi. Those guys are so talented, almost scoring 30 goals and 100 points and still playing great D.
“Nowadays to be successful, the game is so fast, you have to be a good skater. But you also have to be able to create offensively as well.”
PUCK-MOVING DEFENSEMEN have always existed in the NHL, but the influx seems to have picked up considerably over recent seasons.
Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams, who played 10 years in the NHL as a center, said he felt like the evolution was starting to happen around the time he retired in 2008. Early in his career, defensemen played a bigger and meaner style. Toward the end, that type was still around, but players like two-time Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith, who could skate and take space away, had begun to emerge.
Adams said more defensemen over the years have developed into stronger skaters who could read plays, break up neutral zone activity and make life difficult for opposing forwards while also having the offensive skill to become a complete threat.
“I look at a player we drafted — Mats Lindgren — in the fourth round,” Adams said of one of the Sabres’ picks in 2022. “He has some elite skating tools at 18 years old. Those are the type of defensemen you are seeing more of. If you can have that, the feet, you can defend well and make a good first pass, those are valuable. The ones that are extremely intelligent who can process the game at a high level and sort out reads, those types of defensemen are becoming more valuable.”
The Sabres hired Adams in 2020, putting him in charge of a rebuild in Buffalo. Part of his strategy has centered around Dahlin and Power. Dahlin was drafted two years before Adams arrived, whereas Power was selected with the No. 1 pick of the 2021 draft.
Adams said Power’s ability to process the game in addition to his defending, skating, puck-moving ability and vision were all traits the organization believed would translate at a high level.
“You look at our team with Rasmus already in the group, there was a thought that if we get into a big game, they could both be on the ice for 30 minutes a game whether it is together or separately,” Adams said. “That is a really valuable thing to have.”
Dahlin, who was drafted with the first pick in 2018 by the Sabres, said growing up in Sweden shaped how he viewed the game. Countrymen Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson and Nicklas Lidstrom have combined to win 10 Norris Trophies since the start of the century.
That trio inspired a generation of Swedes. Dahlin said he grew up with Adam Boqvist, who plays for the Blue Jackets, and Rasmus Sandin, who plays for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He recalled how they all played the same style.
“I was able to realize at a young age that a defenseman can also have fun offensively,” Dahlin said. “I’m a little mixed. I have my own style. But I for sure looked at those guys.”
Makar, who was the second defenseman drafted after Heiskanen (No. 4 overall) in 2017, said he started playing defense in atom hockey (age 9-10). He said he liked being a forward but enjoyed being a defenseman more because it allowed him to be the first skater back and in a position to control the game.
He praised his youth coaches who helped him gradually get more comfortable being a puck-moving defenseman. Makar said those coaches showed him a lot of faith, to the point he admits to looking like “a little bit of a puck hog” when watching footage from his youth hockey days.
Even back then, Makar could use his agility, stickhandling, speed, timing and vision as a way of deceiving opponents to his advantage. But because he did not see defensemen at higher levels play that way, Makar thought it might not work as he went up the ranks.
“It might have been the first year in Canada they aired the NCAA championship with [Shayne] Gostisbehere and Union,” Makar recalled. “That was kind of the first guy where I was like, ‘Wow. He’s doing that. All the stuff that I am doing right now, but at a level that is way higher.’ In my mind, it was like, ‘Wow. There is some hope there.’
“It was the first moment I realized there was a change in style. That was definitely a defining moment for sure.”
Dahlin, Makar and Werenski were all top-10 draft picks who broke into the league at an early age. Dahlin played as an 18-year-old after spending two seasons with Frolunda, facing older competition back home in Sweden. Makar played at the University of Massachusetts prior to debuting in the Stanley Cup playoffs at 20, while Werenski, who starred at the University of Michigan, came to the league at 19.
By comparison, the 2008 draft had four defensemen — Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Alex Pietrangelo and Luke Schenn — who were taken with the second, third, fourth and fifth picks, respectively. Doughty debuted at 19 and played 81 games his first season. Bogosian debuted at 18 and played 47 games. Pietrangelo broke into the league at 19, but his first full season came at 21, while Schenn played 70 games in his age-19 season. Karlsson, who was drafted 15th, played in 60 games as a 19-year-old.
So while playing young defensemen is nothing new, Pietrangelo said teams have changed their approach with them. The Vegas Golden Knights star said it feels like more teams are trying to find ways to take advantage of the salary cap, and one is by trusting young players on cheaper deals before they become too expensive. He also said the game has developed into requiring more skilled defensemen than in the past, when the focus was to have more physical blueliners.
“I think now the young players are just better skaters,” Pietrangelo said. “Some of these guys that come in now, obviously, you look at Makar and those guys are just exceptional. For the most part, every defenseman at our camp can skate and move the puck. That’s kind of where the game is going.”
Pietrangelo said he initially played third-pairing minutes in his first full season with the St. Louis Blues. He eventually gained more trust from the coaches and began working his way into a top-four role. Pietrangelo finished his rookie campaign with 11 goals and 43 points in 79 games while averaging 22 minutes.
Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said generating offense has become so difficult that teams need all five players on the ice to contribute. He said the previous philosophy was to pair a puck mover with a stay-at-home partner. There is still the expectation all defensemen know how to defend, but there is also an understanding they must be part of the offense.
Bednar, who is the third-longest tenured coach in the NHL, has gone through the experience of trusting a young puck-moving defenseman on three separate occasions. The process the Avs used to assimilate Samuel Girard, as well as Makar and Byram, required buy-in from the entire team.
“First and foremost, you have to be able to check to play in this league, whether you’re a forward or a defenseman,” Bednar said. “To help drive the offense out of them, we encourage our guys to push themselves up the ice and be part of it. There’s the decision-making process. Not only the defensemen who are up in the play, but for our forwards. It’s really team driven. If you want your defensemen to be up in the play, then your forwards have to know their responsibilities are filling in for them. So you’re working in that five-man unit all the time.”
WITH THE INCREASED responsibilities for this crop of young defenseman comes increased compensation. These players are now starting to get paid a lot of money by the time their entry-level contracts expire.
Getting to that point took time. ESPN interviewed four agents who spoke on the condition of anonymity so they could speak freely. All four have negotiated deals for young puck-moving defensemen.
“The market has moved $2.5 million in the course of three years,” one agent said. “When we did a client’s bridge deal, I wanted eight years at $7 million to $7.5 million and that is what I was fighting for. When we did his second deal, the first thing my client said was, ‘Boy, aren’t you glad we did not sign that deal?’ because by that point, the numbers had shifted into the $9 million range.”
For example, both McAvoy and Werenski were among the first of the group who signed bridge deals after their ELCs ended. McAvoy signed a three-year deal worth $4.9 million annually while Werenski signed for three years at $5 million.
Werenski signed with the Blue Jackets on Sept. 9, 2019 while McAvoy re-signed with the Boston Bruins less than a week later.
“I’ve never been on that side of the table [as a general manager]. But the point of the bridge deal is to keep the cap [hit] low,” the agent said. “The bridge deal allows you to have a competitive team with a player that has no leverage.”
The same agent compared the Bruins’ situation with McAvoy to that of the Maple Leafs with Auston Mathews, who was also drafted in 2016. He said the Bruins signing McAvoy to a bridge deal before agreeing in October 2021 to an eight-year extension worth $9.5 million per year that starts in 2022-23 allows the Bruins to hypothetically have McAvoy on their roster for 14 seasons, including the three years from his entry-level deal. It’s a contrast with Mathews, who signed a five-year extension after his ELC, which means he’ll be under team control for only eight seasons.
“As long as the marketplace is what it is, you are happy to pay them,” the agent said. “That is another piece of this. If a guy is that good, why not give them the money? You can keep them for 14 years or possibly lose them after eight or nine years.”
Signing bridge deals is still a possibility. Every team’s situation is different. But the class that featured Fox, Heiskanen, Hughes and Makar saw a deviation from bridge deals, with those players signing long-term contracts after their initial deals.
“We had a guy who went to college and then had an immediate impact in the NHL,” another agent told ESPN. “To me, that first class was the one that sort of opened the door for young defensemen playing immediately, and that second elite class blew the doors off and basically said, ‘Hey, we need to be paid.'”
That same agent said that was his approach when it came to getting his client a new contract after his entry-level deal ended. The agent’s argument was that even though his client is a defenseman, the statistical projections for him were higher than forwards of a similar age who were given long-term deals.
“We never thought a bridge deal was a possibility,” the agent said. “He accomplished enough at the point where we felt we could get some term there. In fact, the team wanted to go longer term and they felt very confident in my client’s value. They wanted to lock him up for as long as they could.”
So why not go longer if the team is willing? The agent explained how signing a deal of at least six years means his client will be around 29 or 30 when it comes time for his next contract. He would be young enough to sign one more large deal before having to worry about age being used against him.
While signing a long-term contract yields life-changing wealth and security, there is another factor to consider. Over time, the market almost surely will go up.
“While we felt good about the total dollar number,” the agent said, “we did not want to chase every last dollar on this contract knowing the landscape will rise.”
Consider the contracts signed by that second wave of young defensemen. Heiskanen signed first on an eight-year deal worth $8.45 million annually on July 17, 2021. Makar signed a week later for six years at $9 million annually. Hughes signed Oct. 1, 2021 for six years at $7.85 million annually while Fox, who still had a year left on his entry-level contract, signed a month later for seven years at $9.5 million annually.
The fourth agent who spoke with ESPN alluded to how those deals would lay the foundation for the next group of defensemen, which includes Dahlin, Drysdale and Seider.
“Makar is at $9 million and teams will say, ‘Are you better than Makar?'” the agent said. “That is what teams will say in negotiations. A [young] defenseman can come along and make $10 million and not be better than Makar or Werenski or Josi. It’s not a function of that player being better, but more how the market is moving.”
Doughty and Karlson are proof that teams are willing to sign a defenseman to a contract worth at least $10 million annually. But Doughty started making $11 million in the 2019-20 season. By that point, he had already won a Norris, two Stanley Cups and was a four-time All-Star. Karlsson’s new deal went into effect that season, and it saw him earn $11.5 million after he won two Norris Trophies and was a five-time All-Star.
What is the likelihood that a team would be willing to give a player who is either 21 or 22 that kind of money? Especially if they do not have a Norris or a Stanley Cup?
“There will be a moment,” one of the agents said. “It’s going to be about the percentage of the cap by that point. I am really hopeful and bullish with where the NHL is. I am hoping in 10 years the cap has gone up significantly. In other sports, there are other young players who make $10 million a year and we don’t blink an eye. The way the game is played and the way offense has to be created from the back end, defensemen will continue to be more and more important.”
As the prominence of these players continues to rise, what does that mean for the Norris Trophy going forward? Pietrangelo said it has changed from the days of Chris Pronger, who won the Hart Memorial Trophy and the Norris in the 1999-2000 season. He said Pronger didn’t need to score 90 points to win the Norris because he had a physical style that made him impactful in every area of the game.
For the record, Pronger scored a career-high 14 goals and a career-high 62 points while averaging more than 30 minutes per game that season. He would have led the league in ice time by nearly four full minutes if he hit those numbers during the 2021-22 season. Pronger’s 14 goals would have been tied for seventh among defensemen while his 62 points would have been ninth.
Makar said it feels like the Norris balloting today leans more toward offensive defensemen. That, in turn, places those with fewer points but consistently strong defensive efforts at a disadvantage.
“It’s almost like you need an extra award for the most all-around guys,” Makar said. “For me, it’s rounding out that game and making sure I can be an option for my team and be up for those individual things. But at the end of the day, there has to be a ‘both sides of the game’ award. There has to be.”
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Bill Connelly
The 2025 college football season opened in earnest with incredible weather in most locales (Lubbock, Texas, aside), exciting and jam-packed environments … and very few points. No one topped 17 points in either of Saturday’s top-10 matchups, FBS teams averaged only 23.5 points per game against other FBS teams, and throughout the country, rebuilt offensive lines and new quarterbacks seemed at a disadvantage against rebuilt defenses.
What did we learn about how 2025 will play out? Not a ton. The season doesn’t end for almost four more months, after all. As LSU coach Brian Kelly said to ESPN’s Molly McGrath after his Tigers’ win over Clemson, the only statement his team made Saturday night was “that we got to 1-0. I mean, this is a long season. This is a journey, and this wasn’t our destination. We have to play better … but that’s why I love playing games like this, on the road, against a top-five team. It just gets you better for the rest of the season.”
Kelly is right, of course. But that’s absolutely no fun. From Thursday evening through Monday night, there were so many games and a lot to react to. It wouldn’t be fun if we didn’t let ourselves overreact a bit. We might even be right about a thing or two!
I’m not a “hot takes” person by nature, but Week 1 is the perfect time to fire off a few. So from Arch Manning, Bill Belichick and Alabama having really bad times to Tulane and Iowa State looking like playoff teams and Jonah Coleman looking like a Heisman contender, here are some (perhaps foolish) overreactions to everything we just saw.
Arch stinks! Matt Patricia for the Broyles Award!
OK, there might be a little hyperbole there. But it’s like Saturday’s Texas–Ohio State game — a 14-7 win for the defending national champs over the visiting Longhorns — was designed in a lab to maximize the potential takes emanating from it. New Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia looked like the greatest defensive coach in the history of the sport, and new Texas starting quarterback Arch Manning, after an offseason of limitless hype, laid an egg on national television.
First things first: My apologies to Chip Ferguson. In the intro to my Friday preview column, I referenced the 1988 Florida State-Miami game, in which preseason No. 1 FSU entered the game as just four-point favorites over the defending national champions — the narrowest point-spread for a preseason No. 1 since at least 1978 — and got rocked by the Canes 31-0. Ferguson started for FSU and was benched by the third quarter because of poor play, and I mentioned that Manning would almost assuredly clear the Ferguson bar.
He did. Barely.
Ferguson vs. Miami (1988): 10-for-16 for 121 yards and two interceptions — 101.0 passer rating
Manning vs. Ohio State (2025): 17-for-30 for 170 yards, one TD and one INT — 108.6 passer rating
Manning completed three passes for 65 yards late in the fourth quarter in Texas’ lone TD drive of the game. That allowed him to narrowly clear the bar. But it was about the only one he cleared. Manning was nervous and inaccurate for large portions of Saturday’s affair, and when he had time to look for an open receiver, none came open. With Ohio State’s all-world safety Caleb Downs lurking in the back, leading returning receivers DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Wingo combined to catch four of 12 passes for 41 yards, and the Buckeyes secondary blanketed Manning’s options.
I got a lot of mileage out of the “Matt Patricia hasn’t been successful in a job since 2016” line this offseason — what can I say, I enjoyed saying it — but any time I said it, I also acknowledged that it might turn out that nothing but raw talent matters. Ohio State clearly has a lot of that.
I couldn’t tell if Patricia was doing anything impressive schematically; all I knew for sure was, wherever Manning and Texas looked for a matchup advantage, they failed to find one. It seemed like they thought they’d run the ball behind their interior line, and they created some rushing efficiency overall, but they got stuffed on fourth-and-short twice, including once on fourth-and-goal from the OSU 1. And wherever Manning was looking downfield, he rarely saw what he wanted. He was forced to check down repeatedly: Only five of his 17 completions gained double-digit yardage, and when he tried to force the issue in the third quarter, his pass was picked off by Jermaine Matthews Jr.
There are quite a few differences between coaching at the pro and collegiate levels, but the biggest one might be that, at the right school, you can lean heavily on talent advantages than you can in the pros and put players where they need to be to exploit those advantages. What we saw Saturday certainly suggests Ohio State will have massive advantages over just about any offense it will face over the next three months.
The major question for the Buckeyes, at this point, is what advantages will they find on offense? Because, for as poor as Texas’ offense might have been Saturday, it was the more successful unit of the two.
Total yards: Texas 336, OSU 203
Yards per play: Texas 5.0, OSU 3.8
Success rate: Texas 43.3%, OSU 33.3%
First downs: Texas 16, OSU 11
Ohio State won because its defense stopped Texas inside the OSU 10 and forced the game’s only turnover. The Buckeyes offense finished only two drives inside the Texas 40, running backs CJ Donaldson Jr. and James Peoples averaged just 3.0 yards per carry, and in his first collegiate start, Julian Sayin went just 13-for-20 for 126 yards. Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1 player heading into the season, caught six of 10 balls for just 43 yards, and Carnell Tate‘s 40-yard touchdown catch early in the fourth quarter was very well timed and OSU’s only gain of more than 16 yards all game.
Neither of these teams is a finished product, and with both teams’ overall inexperience, especially on offense, it will take a while for them to become their finished versions. But while I billed this game as a fantastic opportunity to answer a lot of my questions about these two teams, I think I finished the game with more questions than when I started.
I was wrong about Alabama
The most disappointing thing about Alabama’s performance Saturday wasn’t quarterback Ty Simpson, though he wasn’t good enough (4.9 yards per dropback and as many negative plays as 20-yard gains). It wasn’t receiver Ryan Williams dropping multiple passes and catching just five of 11 targets for 30 yards. It wasn’t an experienced offensive line that I thought would hold the biggest advantage in the ballgame, but it did no such thing. It wasn’t even a Bama secondary that gave up a couple of big plays to speedy receivers Squirrel White and Jaylin Lucas. That stuff happens.
The most disappointing thing about the Tide’s performance in Tallahassee was how totally unprepared they looked.
Felt like old times tonight!! 🍢
— Coach Gus Malzahn (@CoachGusMalzahn) August 30, 2025
When FSU’s Mike Norvell hired Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and brought former Malzahn recruit Tommy Castellanos aboard to run the offense, it was fair to make a few assumptions about how things would go. Malzahn has built lots of fun rushing attacks around mobile quarterbacks through the years, and Castellanos is similar to Kyler Murray with his legs and running style (and very much not like Murray with his arm). It was easy to craft a vision of a motion-friendly FSU offense occasionally utilizing misdirection and giving Castellanos freedom to run and make things happen.
FSU drove 75, 65 and 52 yards and scored 17 points in its first three drives, then began the second half with a 68-yard TD drive. The progress slowed from there, but the Noles uncorked a 10-play, 75-yard drive to ice the win midway through the fourth quarter. Castellanos rushed for 86 yards, and five FSU ball carriers had at least one 10-yard rush. (Micahi Danzy had gains of 26 and 32 yards among his three carries.) When Castellanos was at Boston College last season, opponents quickly learned that, instead of attempting to sack him when he dropped to pass, it was best to corral him and force him to make plays with his arm. It was as if Bama’s defenders hadn’t watched any film. Time and again, they flew in for the sack, only to see him spin away and make a play with his legs.
Almost everyone on the Bama offense — including a few somewhat known players like Williams, who is expected to make big contributions this year — performed poorly, aside from receiver Germie Bernard and tight end Josh Cuevas (though even they combined to catch only 11 of 21 passes). But when the defense was getting bullied and Bama needed its offensive stars to keep up, they instead disappeared for swaths of time. FSU went 7-for-14 (50%) on third and fourth downs, while Bama went only 8-for-22 (36%), and though the Tide looked like they might come back from down 17 points, they never got the ball with a chance to tie.
My general approach to Bama heading into this season was pretty simple: If Simpson is good, Bama is great. Coach Kalen DeBoer’s pre-Bama track record was almost flawless, and I thought if Simpson was solid and the pass rush improved a little, the Tide would have everything they needed. But neither Simpson nor Bama’s pass rushers (in either sacks or containment) performed well enough, and the units I wasn’t concerned about also failed to come through. It was an all-around dud, starting with the coaching staff, and it’s not like they lacked motivation. This is a long season, and the Tide have time to recover. But it takes your GPA a while to rebound from an F on the first test of the semester.
This section is primarily about Bama, but Castellanos & Co. deserve massive praise. They made the Tide look unprepared. I’m still not sure what to expect from the Seminoles in 2025, and I still have the memory of Castellanos running out of steam after a lovely start to 2024. The crowd at Doak Campbell Stadium was loud enough to almost drown out Joe Tessitore on the TV call, and the team looked like it had all the motivation it lacked last season. And when you’re already 50% to last year’s win total after one game, you’re doing something right.
I was right about Clemson (and Miami is winning the ACC)
As questionable as it may have been to buy lots of Bama stock this offseason, I certainly felt justified in not buying Clemson stock. The Tigers led the nation in returning production in 2025 and were extremely likely to improve, but I struggled with the idea that a team that has averaged an 18.5 SP+ ranking and 3.5 losses per season over the past four years could suddenly become a top-five team, as poll voters suggested.
Clemson is obviously talented and will threaten to win the ACC this year. But a 17-10 home loss to LSU on Saturday night certainly threw doubt on the Tigers’ supposed top-five bona fides.
The Clemson run defense, a liability in 2024 despite loads of blue-chippers on the line, was mostly solid Saturday. Of course, the visiting Tigers were terribly inefficient on the ground last season, and LSU’s Caden Durham and Zavion Thomas still combined for 100 yards in 20 carries. Still, when you hold LSU — a team that hasn’t ranked in the defensive SP+ top 20 since 2019 — to 17 points, you should like your chances, and the experienced Clemson offense simply couldn’t move the ball. Only two of Clemson’s 58 snaps gained more than 20 yards, and half gained one or fewer. And with the game in the balance, Cade Klubnik‘s final 14 dropbacks netted 47 yards and a dreadful 14.3% success rate. Clemson has now lost its past seven games against ranked SEC foes.
Like any other Week 1 disappointment, the Tigers obviously have time to rebound and grow. But the whole point of buying stock in a team with actual experience — as opposed to all the highly ranked teams with major continuity and/or experience issues heading into 2025 — was that it would be pretty fully formed when the season began. The Tigers might not have that much room to grow, and within the ACC they now have to worry about a Miami team that actually has its act together.
Well, maybe. Miami looked really good to start 2024, too, so we know it can backfire to fully buy in on the Hurricanes. But with a 27-24 win over Notre Dame on Sunday night, they scored their first victory over a top-10 team in nine tries and nearly eight years. The Miami offense fell into a second-half funk as the Irish came back from 14 down to tie the game, but Georgia transfer Carson Beck threw for 205 yards and two touchdowns, North Dakota State transfer CharMar Brown moved the chains twice in short yardage on Miami’s final drive, and Carter Davis‘ 47-yard field goal provided the winning points. And against what is supposed to be an excellent Notre Dame offensive line, Miami sacked CJ Carr twice on the Irish’s final possession.
It was an excellent start against what is, on paper, the best team Miami will face in the regular season. LSU transfer CJ Daniels and freshman Malachi Toney combined for 11 catches, 128 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the single best play of Week 1. And at the very least, Miami erased the bitter taste from its poor 2024 finish.
0:59
CJ Daniels makes jaw-dropping 1-handed TD grab for Miami
CJ Daniels goes full extension for a one-handed touchdown grab to put Miami up late in the first half.
Rapid-fire overreactions
The big games were the big games, but we had so much else to overreact to. Here are some quicker takes:
A defensive player is winning the Heisman
Don’t ask me which one, though if Ohio State let Caleb Downs line up on offense a few times, I think we might have our answer. But some defender needs to get on a roll because offenses stunk in Week 1 — OK, some didn’t, but go with me here — and there has never been a better chance for an Ndamukong Suh-like charge from a defender (only, with the proper respect from Heisman voters this time).
Indeed, all the major offensive measures are down compared to where they were this time last year. In Week 1 of last season, in FBS vs. FBS games, teams averaged 2.11 points per drive and 5.52 yards per play; this year it was 1.9 points per drive and 5.4 yards per play. Efficiency numbers actually improved — success rate rose from 40.6% to 41.2%, completion rate rose from 61.0% to 61.3%, sack rates fell from 6.0% to 5.1% and overall turnover rates improved slightly from 2.0% to 1.7%.
So what’s the problem? Big plays vanished: The percentage of completions gaining at least 20 yards fell from 16.3% to 14.7%, and despite the uptick in completion rate (and the downtick in sacks), average yards per dropback fell from 6.4 to 6.0. You know how pro defenses adapted to force Patrick Mahomes to settle for checkdown after checkdown because they were basically forming an umbrella at the back? It appears college defenses are doing the same thing. They’re forcing quarterbacks — who, on average, are less experienced than in recent years — to dink and dunk and score points before making a crippling error or coming up short on third down. It’s working.
Somehow, scoring plummeted in Week 1 even as coaches got much more aggressive on fourth down. Or perhaps because of it. Teams went for it on fourth down in opposition territory 44.0% of the time in Week 1 (again, looking only at FBS vs. FBS games), up from 33.1% in Week 1 last year. And despite this increase, fourth-down conversion rates also went up, from 49.6% to 54.7%.
Coaches increasingly understand when going for it is to their advantage, but might that be further tamping down their willingness to take shots downfield, since it’s now more OK to come up just short of the line to gain and utilize fourth downs? “Nerds ruined college football” is quite the overreaction, especially coming from a nerd, but consider that food for thought as we advance further into the season.
At one point Saturday, the Under was 17-3 for the weekend; it ended up 29-14 (67.4%), a solid improvement over last year’s 26-16 (61.9%) in Week 1. Offenses eventually picked up steam a bit in 2024, and they probably will this season too. But damn, were points hard to come by this weekend.
Iowa State is winning the Big 12
ISU and Kansas State returned from Ireland just a few days ago, and both scheduled Week 1 games against FCS opponents. Perhaps somewhat predictably, K-State had to labor significantly against both jet lag and a solid North Dakota team, but against South Dakota, a top-five FCS team on paper, Matt Campbell’s Cyclones cruised.
Projected to win by 21.4 per SP+, they rolled 55-7. Rocco Becht completed 19 of 20 passes for 278 yards and 3 scores, and after giving up 80 yards in 12 plays on USD’s opening drive, the Cyclones allowed just 129 from there. Kicker Kyle Konrardy crushed a 63-yard field goal at the end of the first half.
ISU couldn’t have been more dialed in, and though plenty of other potential Big 12 teams looked the part — especially TCU (def. North Carolina 48-14), Utah (def. UCLA 43-10), Arizona (40-6 over Hawaii), BYU (69-0 over Portland State) and Texas Tech (67-7 over Arkansas-Pine Bluff) — the Cyclones passed a particularly unique test and blew me away.
The kids are alright
For as much as QBs seemed to struggle in Week 1, some particularly young ones looked the part of future stars. Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, the most touted freshman in the country, was solid in his debut against New Mexico, weathering a couple of mini-funks and finishing 21-for-31 for 251 yards and a touchdown. But a couple of others did even better.
No one made more of an out-of-the-gate impression than Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. In Cal’s surprisingly easy 34-15 win at Oregon State, the blue-chipper completed his first nine passes for 146 yards and 2 scores and finished with 234 yards and 3 TDs, no sacks and 2 rushes for 30 yards. It was one of the more poised and mistake-free debuts from a true freshman.
Maryland’s Malik Washington went about similar numbers differently: He started 3-for-11 for 19 yards, and the Terrapins were tied with Florida Atlantic 7-7 after one quarter. But from there, he went 24-for-32 and threw three touchdown passes in a 39-7 romp.
Thanks to offseason attrition, Cal and Maryland were forced to undergo youth movements of sorts, handing the reins to youngsters and hoping they could get enough help from transfers and random incumbents to get by. Both more than got by in Week 1.
While we’re at it, a couple of redshirt freshmen looked outstanding at the Group of 5 level: North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker went 24-for-32 for 329 yards, 3 touchdowns and 30 non-sack rushing yards in a 51-0 blowout of Lamar, while Texas State’s Brad Jackson, with help from a rampant run game, went 18-for-26 for 214 yards and 4 TDs (plus 57 rushing yards) as the Bobcats rolled 52-27 over Eastern Michigan. Quality quarterbacking was rare in Week 1, but these teams found plenty of it with youngsters.
Tulane to the CFP
A football game lasts a long time. About 45 minutes or so into the USF–Boise State game Thursday evening, things had loosely gone as BSU would have hoped. Sure, the Broncos had lost a costly fumble at the USF 20 on the opening drive, but they were moving the ball efficiently, and USF was not. Boise State had a 46% success rate to USF’s 10%, and the Bulls’ first nine snaps had lost 10 yards.
Then came the final 2 hours, 45 minutes. USF put together a couple of good drives, and BSU stalled. After looking strong early, the Broncos trailed 10-7 at halftime. Then it was 17-7. And 24-7. Boise State kept turning the ball over on downs, and USF kept scoring. And after about 3½ hours, the Bulls had won 34-7 — somehow BSU finished plus-6 in yardage and minus-27 in points — and completely flipped the race for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP spot on its head.
Now, Boise State remains a contender. The Broncos are still very talented and will likely be favored in every game besides their Oct. 4 trip to Notre Dame. But the upset opened a door, and above all others, Tulane walked through it.
The Green Wave were 6.5-point favorites against Northwestern on Saturday, but that was a bit of an insult to the home team. SP+ projected Tulane as a 15-point favorite, and even that eventually undersold the Green Wave in a 23-3 win that was more dominant than the final score indicated. They converted most of the game’s big plays and made new Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone‘s life hell, picking off four of his passes and sacking him three times. Green Wave QB Jake Retzlaff threw for 152 yards and rushed for 113, including a 69-yard touchdown sprint in the second quarter. Tulane was basically bigger, stronger, faster and angrier than the Wildcats at every position. The Green Wave could also be favored in all but one remaining game — their Sept. 20 trip to Ole Miss being the exception — and unlike BSU, they haven’t used a mulligan yet.
Rice will bowl
Because I didn’t include a “how sexy is your offense?” component in preseason SP+ projections, Rice was projected only 116th, with an average projected win total of 4.8, heading into Scott Abell’s first season in charge. But that offense did something sexy Saturday.
Turner turns it up!
Rice 14 – Louisiana 3 pic.twitter.com/MVk9EH97Fa
— Rice Football (@RiceFootball) August 31, 2025
It took the Owls no time to spin an opponent into the ground with Abell’s option offense. Rice rushed for 206 yards, and thanks to a surprisingly spry defensive effort, the Owls upset Louisiana 14-12. They’ll probably need another upset or two to get to 6-6, but this is overreaction territory! I say they get to at least 6-6!
North Carolina won’t
If nothing else, Bill Belichick’s first North Carolina team won the scripted portion of its first game. TCU’s defense had no way of really knowing what the Tar Heels, with almost completely new personnel and a coaching staff heavy in pro influences, were going to attempt when their Monday night affair started. And sure enough, UNC carved the Horned Frogs up for 83 yards and a touchdown in just seven plays. TCU quickly went four-and-out, and everything was sunshine and moonbeams in Chapel Hill.
Unfortunately, the game continued. Over the next 30 minutes and change, TCU outgained the Heels 402-39 and outscored them 41-0. UNC briefly perked up when backup quarterback Max Johnson came in and threw a touchdown pass to his brother Jake Johnson — unfortunately not the same guy who starred in New Girl — but the Horned Frogs rolled, 48-14.
When Michael Lombardi, UNC’s general manager and a longtime NFL front-office guy, would talk to the media this offseason, you would hear a lot about running an NFL-style organization at North Carolina, with all sorts of scouting and cap knowledge. That’s great, and maybe that know-how will benefit the program in future seasons as it learns some lessons from 2025. But 2025 doesn’t look like it’s going to go particularly well. The roster Belichick and his NFL staff compiled this season simply doesn’t have enough talent, especially in the trenches, to aim for anything higher than 6-6 in year one. This isn’t the NFL, and you can’t draft talent — there’s still a recruiting element to the college game that goes with all the cap math. We’ll see what happens in future seasons, but in 2025 it looks like the college game, with all its quirks and oddities, is going to get the best of the best coach in NFL history.
But on the bright side, just think of how many Super Bowls TCU’s Sonny Dykes might win if he gets the chance!
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am, once again, awarding the Heisman every week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). For the first time last season, I had a different winner than the actual winner — Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty took the crown with a slight advantage over the actual winner Travis Hunter and Miami’s Cam Ward. How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the real Heisman voting?
With almost no preseason Heisman favorites really looking the part in Week 1, this race hasn’t begun. But we still had some standout performances.
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Jonah Coleman, Washington (24 carries for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 22 receiving yards against Colorado State)
𝘉𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘔𝘰𝘥𝘦 😤
Jonah Coleman was ruled down before the end zone, but it takes nothing away from his effort on this @UW_Football run.
📺: BTN pic.twitter.com/UIMei214Iu
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) August 31, 2025
2. Rocco Becht, Iowa State (19-for-20 passing for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns against South Dakota)
3. Parker Navarro, Ohio (21-for-31 passing for 239 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 93 rushing yards and a touchdown against Rutgers)
4. Taylen Green, Arkansas (24-for-31 passing for 322 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 53 rushing yards against Alabama A&M)
5. Mekhi Mason, Louisiana Tech (9 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup against Southeastern Louisiana)
6. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (22-for-34 passing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 39 rushing yards against UTSA)
7. Robert Henry Jr., UTSA (16 carries for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns against Texas A&M)
8. Devon Dampier, Utah (21-for-25 passing for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 87 rushing yards and a touchdown against UCLA)
9. Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State (5 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 1 sack and 2 forced fumbles against Nevada)
10. KC Concepcion, Texas A&M (three catches for 72 yards and a touchdown, plus an 80-yard punt return TD against UTSA)
0:49
KC Concepcion with a spectacular touchdown vs. UTSA Roadrunners
KC Concepcion (Texas A&M) with a spectacular touchdown vs. UTSA Roadrunners on Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025.
Jonah Coleman’s “beast mode” run late Saturday night was one of the best plays of the weekend, and without his efforts, the Huskies would have been in trouble against Colorado State. And though plenty of QBs posted good stat lines against FCS opponents, only Rocco Becht went 19-for-20. He and his Cyclones were almost perfect against a solid South Dakota squad.
Honorable mention:
• Jackson Arnold, Auburn (11-for-17 passing for 108 yards, plus 151 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against Baylor)
• Bryson Donelson, Fresno State (23 carries for 167 yards and a touchdown, plus 25 receiving yards against Georgia Southern)
• Jordan Dwyer, TCU (nine catches for 136 yards and a touchdown against North Carolina)
• Justice Haynes, Michigan (16 carries for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns against New Mexico)
• Jayden Maiava, USC (15-for-18 passing for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Missouri State)
• Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (28-for-38 passing for 230 yards and a touchdown against Clemson)
• Beau Pribula, Missouri (23-for-28 passing for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 72 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against Central Arkansas)
• Braylan Shelby, USC (4 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 2 sacks against Missouri State)
• Evan Simon, Temple (19-for-25 passing for 248 yards and 6 touchdowns against UMass)
• Steven Soles Jr., Kentucky (3 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles against Toledo)
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
We can admit that Week 1 wasn’t exactly overloaded with great games … or close games of any kind. But here’s where college football’s endless depth kicks in. There’s always a great game and a heart-stopping finish somewhere, even if you have to search a bit.
1. No. 10 Miami 27, No. 6 Notre Dame 24. Loud crowd, late drama and a jaw-dropping one-handed touchdown catch? Yep, this game was awesome.
2 and 3. NAIA: No. 2 Keiser 38, No. 6 Indiana Wesleyan 31 and No. 4 Benedictine 38, No. 3 Morningside 34. The NAIA’s top-10 doubleheader produced a pair of thrillers. First, Keiser traveled from Florida to Marion, Indiana, and led most of the way. But Arjun Lothe scored on a keeper and threw a 21-yard touchdown pass to Isaac Smith to tie the score at 31-31. But then Jaden Miller ripped off a 70-yard touchdown run, his fourth score of the day, and Keiser prevailed. Meanwhile, in Atchison, Kansas, there were some long touchdowns and nine lead changes, the last of which came with 12 seconds left: Jackson Dooley’s 2-yard keeper allowed Benedictine to open the season with a thrilling win over NAIA royalty for the second straight year.
4. Tarleton State 30, Army 27 (2OT). On Friday, I wrote that Tarleton State jumping to second in FCS SP+ last week might have been a bit of a small-sample overreaction. Whoops. The Texans forced three Army turnovers, got a combined 196 rushing yards and two scores from Caleb Lewis and Tre Page III, overcame a 14-point second-half deficit and took down the defending American Conference champs with better late-game place-kicking.
TSU is one of the most ambitious programs in the country; the Texans moved up from Division II recently and are almost openly pining to move up further. They’ve certainly looked like an FBS team in 2025.
5 and 6. No. 9 LSU 17, No. 4 Clemson 10 and No. 3 Ohio State 14, No. 1 Texas 7. Great games with huge plays from all the big-name guys? Not really. Down-to-the-wire battles with electric atmospheres? Absolutely.
7 and 8. FCS: Gardner-Webb 52, Western Carolina 45 and Monmouth 42, Colgate 39. We got two enormous comebacks at the FCS level Saturday evening, both from visiting teams. First, Gardner-Webb spotted Western Carolina a 35-7 lead in the second quarter, then scored 45 of the next 52 points. WCU kicked a late field goal, but the Bulldogs recovered the onside kick and survived. Then, in upstate New York, Colgate took a 31-7 lead midway through the third quarter, but watched Monmouth score 35 points in 14 minutes to take a stunning 42-31 lead. The Raiders responded with a touchdown, but Monmouth moved the chains three times and ran out the clock.
9. Kent State 21, Merrimack 17. Kent State entered the game with a 21-game (and nearly two-year) losing streak, and it looked like that streak could continue for a while when Merrimack took a 17-14 lead with 5:40 left. But Da’Realyst Clark — DA’REALYST CLARK! — returned the ensuing kickoff 100 yards for a score.
1:17
Merrimack Warriors vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: Full Highlights
Merrimack Warriors vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: Full Highlights
10. Prairie View A&M 22, Texas Southern 21. The HBCU universe did its best to provide. Howard upset Florida A&M 10-9 with a Matt Conord field goal at the buzzer, and NC A&T missed a tying field goal at the buzzer in a 24-21 Tennessee State win. In Orangeburg, South Carolina, SC State blew a fourth-quarter lead against Wofford but scored late to win anyway. And after a weather delay at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Prairie View gave up a go-ahead touchdown to Texas Southern with 1:15 left but drove 84 yards and won the game on a 14-yard walk-off touchdown pass from Cameron Peters to Rodny Ojo.
(Also, a quick shoutout to Presbyterian: The Blue Hose knocked off their highest-ranked FCS opponent ever, No. 11 Mercer, with a 16-yard Zach Switzer touchdown run and a late stop. Blue Hose 15, Bears 10.)
Welcome to September! Five months into Major League Baseball’s 2025 season, a number of things seem to be settled — from a few divisions to some award races — but plenty of intrigue remains entering the homestretch.
Which of the current contenders will reach the playoffs? How will the closer division races play out? Which teams will secure first-round byes? And how many games will the Colorado Rockies lose?!
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked 16 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond, and to explain their answers. We also asked them to make bold predictions about what will happen over the final stretch.
Let’s get into it.
Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?
Milwaukee Brewers: 14
Detroit Tigers: 1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1
What makes the Brewers the favorite to secure the majors’ best record? Besides the buffer the Brewers have built as we enter the final month of the regular season, there’s just nothing to suggest a falloff. They are on track to win about 100 games and their run differential supports that pace. The remaining schedule is friendly. And Milwaukee’s production has come from every position and category. It’s just a really complete team. — Bradford Doolittle
How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?
All 12: 15
11: 1
You have the Royals ousting the Mariners from the playoff field. Why do you think that will happen? The Kansas City Royals will make the playoffs. Crazy? Not so. They’ve played great in July and August. Vinnie Pasquantino is mashing home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. is red hot and the players they added at the trade deadline have chipped in to make this a good offense. The Royals also have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. But which team can they catch?
It might hinge on a three-game series at home against Seattle in mid-September. The Mariners have a recent history of falling just short of the postseason — including last year, when the Royals clinched a wild-card spot with 86 wins and the Mariners won 85 (the Mariners blew an 8-0 lead against Kansas City in June, which loomed large at the end of the season). Seattle has struggled on the road, so the aforementioned series can catapult the Royals back into the postseason. — David Schoenfield
Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL: Toronto or Detroit?
Detroit Tigers: 14
Toronto Blue Jays: 2
The Tigers were the overwhelming choice. Why did you take them? For me, this was mostly a schedule play. The top seed, based on the standings, is likely to be the Tigers or the Blue Jays, with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners all within plausible striking distance. Toronto doesn’t have an easy series left. Detroit’s schedule isn’t nearly as rigorous. In a race this close, with teams this close in talent and production, little things like schedule luck often determine the outcome. — Jeff Passan
You were one of two voters to pick the Blue Jays. Why do you think they top Detroit? The Tigers are a wonderful story, but not so much since the All-Star break, as they have played .500 ball, struggled to score runs and their ERA is among the bottom 10 in baseball. The Blue Jays are peaking at the right time, scoring plenty of runs, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber make the rotation formidable. Frankly, all three AL East contenders are better than the current Tigers, and it should show in the final standings. — Eric Karabell
Assuming the Brewers get one, who will get the second bye in the NL?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 9
Philadelphia Phillies: 5
San Diego Padres: 2
Despite dealing with star players slumping and a mountain of injuries this season, the Dodgers are still the slight favorites for the No. 2 seed in a stacked NL. Explain why. Because those are the very reasons why the Dodgers firmly believe their best baseball is still ahead of them. Their bullpen will soon be as close to whole as it has been all season. The same can be said about the lineup. The rotation already is, and the four-man group they’ll put together in October will be scary if the starters remain healthy.
That’s a big “if,” considering the pitching ailments that have plagued them the last couple years. But at the end of the day, the Dodgers possess the most depth and talent in the sport. They feel as if they’re on the verge of truly showcasing it. — Alden Gonzalez
The Phillies also received a fair number of votes. What makes them your pick? The Phillies seem to be flying under the radar for a team that has spent most of the season on a 95-win pace. Maybe it’s the Zack Wheeler injury, maybe it’s their struggles against the New York Mets — or maybe it’s just that this is about what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Philly over the past few seasons.
But there is plenty to like here over the final month and into October as well. Even without Wheeler, the Phillies have the best Game 1 starter of any NL contender in Cristopher Sanchez. Kyle Schwarber has a real shot at Ryan Howard’s franchise home run record (58). They acquired the best reliever to move at the deadline in Jhoan Duran and filled their biggest hole by trading for outfielder Harrison Bader. Oh, and they currently hold that second spot in the NL — with a 1 1/2 game cushion over the Dodgers. — Dan Mullen
Will the Dodgers or Padres win the NL West?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 13
San Diego Padres: 3
The Dodgers were our voters’ overwhelming favorite to win the division. Why — and how — do you think San Diego can overtake L.A.? More than any other team, I think the Dodgers look at their seasons from 30,000 feet, rather than succumbing to the concerns of the moment. They demonstrate this every year with their handling of pitching injuries — they essentially rest veteran starters through long stretches of the season, rather than push them in May and June, in order to do what they can to ensure that the players will be relatively fresh in October. This is why we’ve seen such a deliberate ramp-up with Shohei Ohtani.
That’s why I think the Padres will wind up winning the division. They bolstered their bullpen with Mason Miller at the trade deadline, and since then, it feels like they’ve been playing a series of Game 7s. And, let’s face it, San Diego is all-in in trying to win right now, with its top-heavy roster and the likes of Dylan Cease and Michael King headed for free agency in the fall. The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t go to the whip in September in the same way. No matter how their own division plays out, they’ll make the playoffs and have a shot to repeat as World Series winners, while it feels as if San Diego is going to go all-out down the stretch to win the NL West.
Different pressures, different styles, different context. — Buster Olney
Who will win the AL West?
Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 8
Make the case for the Astros: Picking Houston to win the West isn’t going out on much of a limb: They’re currently in first place, just got slugger Yordan Alvarez back from injury and simply have more pedigree than Seattle. The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way but their road woes are for real — and will likely prevent them from going on an extended run. Picking against the Astros would be the headline-scratching move. They’re the division champ once again. — Jesse Rogers
Make the case for the Mariners: The Mariners aren’t playing their best baseball, but they are healthy and within striking distance of the Astros for the division entering September. Their starting rotation is elite. The bullpen and offense should be better. Meanwhile, the Astros have recently gotten Yordan Alvarez back from injury, but they’re without Josh Hader and Isaac Paredes, among others. The division could come down to the three-game series between the two rivals in late September. — Jorge Castillo
How many games will the Rockies lose?
119: 1
118: 3
117: 1
116: 3
115: 3
114: 3
113: 1
112: 1
We got quite the breadth of answers to this question, but you were one of three to say 118 losses — our second-highest loss total. Why is that your prediction? The Rockies aren’t far removed from being on a modern record-setting pace for losses, and they’ve been especially awful against the current 12 teams in the playoff field: 9-50 (.153). They play 13 of their final 24 against that group, at a time when they’re increasingly leaning on younger and less experienced players. Their September isn’t going to be pretty. — Tristan Cockcroft
Make one bold prediction about the final stretch
Tim Kurkjian: Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh will finish the season with 60 home runs.
Matt Marrone: With most of the playoff field set — other than last-minute jockeying for seeds — all eyes will be on the Mariners over the final days of the season, as Raleigh sets a new AL home run record.
Kiley McDaniel: Between hitting and pitching, Shohei Ohtani catches Raleigh in total WAR.
Passan: Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz will finish in the top five of AL MVP voting.
Karabell: The Phillies call up top pitching prospect Andrew Painter on Sept. 7 and he goes 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.
Mullen: Nolan McLean will be the NL’s best pitcher not named Paul Skenes over the final month and take the mound in October — as the Mets’ Game 1 playoff starter.
Paul Hembekides: Boston’s Garrett Crochet will overtake Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and win the AL Cy Young Award.
Schoenfield: The Red Sox will catch the Blue Jays and win the AL East.
Gonzalez: Actually, the Yankees will win the AL East.
Cockcroft: Not only do the Yankees overtake Toronto for the division title, but they also grab a first-round bye, even if they can’t quite catch the Tigers for the No. 1 seed.
Olney: The Yankees have such a soft schedule in the final weeks that they wind up with the second-best record in the AL … but because Toronto holds on to win the division, New York is the No. 4 seed and faces Boston in the wild-card round.
Tim Keown: The Padres, with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, will go 7-0 against the Colorado Rockies in September to win the NL West and take the second first-round bye spot.
Castillo: The Mets will overtake the Phillies and win the NL East.
Doolittle: If we started the playoffs tomorrow, the bracket would look exactly the same as it will after we’ve played out the season.
Voters: Dan Mullen, Liz Finny, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Eric Karabell, Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Tim Keown, Jorge Castillo, Matt Marrone, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney
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