The pound’s value ebbed and flowed on Friday – supported by a Bank of England deputy governor’s vow to persist in the fight against inflation but later hammered as stronger than expected US jobs data lifted the dollar.
Remarks by Sir Dave Ramsden, a member of the monetary policy committee (MPC) which sets Bank rate, helped lift under-fire sterling from intraday losses versus the dollar following its mini-budget mauling last month.
The UK currency gained four-tenths of a cent to return back above $1.12 – but it later sank on renewed dollar strengthening when the US employment data failed to dampen expectations of further, big, interest rate hikes ahead.
The pound was down to $1.1108 – a cent lower – after the jobs report was released.
Sir Dave’s speech to the Securities Industry Conference had given support to sterling as it laid bare a determination to quash the surge in inflation, even if it meant more pain for the economy and conflict with the aims of the Truss government.
He was among three to vote at the last MPC meeting for a 0.75 percentage point rise, as opposed to the 0.5 percentage point hike implemented.
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Sir Dave used his speech to argue that high inflation would do more long term harm – with the tax-cutting plans of the government potentially adding to the problem.
Image: Sir Dave Ramsden
“However difficult the consequences might be for the economy, the MPC must stay the course and set monetary policy to return inflation to achieve the 2% target,” he said.
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The growth plan outlined by Kwasi Kwarteng in his mini-budget last month placed Number 11’s fiscal policy on a direct collision course with the Bank’s monetary policy.
That is because the Bank is trying to shrink demand and the pace of price growth in the economy by raising borrowing costs.
Sir Dave said the Bank would factor in the likely effects of the chancellor’s economic stimulus plan, along with the hostile market reaction to them which included the pound dipping to a record low of $1.03, in to its next economic forecasts due next month.
That meeting, financial markets believe, could see Bank rate raised by up to 1% to 3.25% – piling further misery on many borrowers.
Market consensus currently sees the rate hitting around 5.75% by next June.
For its part, the government has signalled that it has listened to the negative feedback – all linked to fears that its plans will lead to unsustainable levels of public borrowing.
Following a U-turn on abolishing the 45p rate of income tax, Mr Kwarteng is now understood to be planning a full budget – including, this time, analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility – for 23 November.
It has not been totally ruled out that the date could be brought forward.
Donald Trump has cancelled a loophole from today that had allowed consumers and businesses to be spared duties for sending low-value goods to the United States.
The so-called de minimis exemption had applied across the world before Trump 2.0 but the president has taken action – and the UK may soon follow suit – as part of his trade war.
The relief had allowed goods worth less than $800 (£595) to enter the US duty-free since 2016.
But now, low-cost packages face the same tariff rate as other, more expensive, goods.
The reasons for the latest bout of protectionism are numerous and the ramifications are country and purpose specific.
What is changing?
It was no accident that China was the first destination to be slapped with this rule change.
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The duty exemption on low-value Chinese goods was ended in May as US retailers, in fact those across the Western world, complained bitterly that they were being undercut by cheap clothing, accessories and household goods shipped by the likes of Shein and Temu.
From today, Mr Trump is expanding the end of the de minimis rule to the rest of the world.
Why is Trump doing this?
Image: Number of de minimis packages imported in to the US since 2018
The president is not acting purely to protect US businesses.
More duties mean more money for his tariff treasure chest, bolstering the goodies already pouring in from his base and reciprocal tariffs imposed on trading partners globally this year.
The Trump administration has also called out “deceptive shipping practices, illegal material and duty circumvention”.
It also believes many parcels claiming to contain low-value goods have been used to fuel the country’s supplies of fentanyl, with the importation of the illegal drug being used by the president as a reason for his wider trade war against allies including Canada.
How will it apply?
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New tariffs threaten fresh trade chaos
Under the new rules, only letters and personal gifts worth less than $100 (£74) will still be free of import duties.
Charges will depend on the tariff regime facing the country from where the goods are sent.
Fox example, a parcel containing products worth $600 would raise $180 in extra duties when sent from a country facing a 30% tariff rate.
It has sparked chaos in many countries, with postal services in places including Japan, Germany and Australia refusing to accept many items for delivery to the US until the practicalities of the new regime become clearer.
What about the UK?
All goods not meeting the £74 exemption criteria now face a 10% charge because that is the baseline tariff the US has slapped on imports from the UK.
We were spared, if you remember, higher reciprocal tariffs under the so-called “trade deal”.
How will the process work?
All shipping and delivery companies will be wading through the changes, with the big international operators such as DHL, FedEx and the like all promising to navigate the challenge.
Royal Mail said on Thursday that it would be the first international postal service to have a dedicated operation.
It said consumers could use its new postal delivery duties paid (PDDP) services both online and at Post Offices.
But it explained that business customers faced different restrictions to individuals.
Businesses would be charged a handling fee per parcel to cover additional costs and duties would be calculated based on where items were originally manufactured.
While business account customers could be handed an invoice for the duties, it explained that consumers would have to pay at the point of buying postage.
No customs declaration would be required, it concluded, for personal correspondence.
Is the US alone in doing this?
The answer is no, but it remains a fairly widespread relief globally.
The European Union, for example, removed de minimis breaks back in 2021, making all e-commerce imports to the bloc subject to VAT.
It is also now planning to introduce a fee of €2 on goods worth €150 or less to cover the costs of customs processing.
Should the UK do the same?
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July: The value of ‘de minimis’ imports into Britain
The UK has been under pressure for many years to follow suit and drop its own £135 duty-free threshold as retailers battle the cheap e-commerce competition from China we mentioned earlier.
A review was announced by the chancellor in April.
Sky News revealed in July how the total declared trade value of de minimis imports into the UK in the 2024-25 financial year was £5.9bn – a 53% increase on the previous 12-month period.
Any rise in revenue would be welcomed, not only by UK retailers, but by Rachel Reeves too as she looks to fill a renewed black hole in the public finances.
Sanjeev Gupta, the metals tycoon whose main British business was forced into compulsory liquidation last week, is facing a deepening probe by Australian regulators into his operations in the country.
Sky News has learnt that officials from the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) last week served Mr Gupta’s Liberty Steel group with a new demand for information about its activities.
Sources said the regulator had also taken possession of a mobile phone belonging to Mr Gupta as part of the probe.
One insider said that other senior executives at the company may also have had electronic devices confiscated, although the accuracy of this claim could not be verified on Thursday morning.
Both ASIC and a spokesman for Mr Gupta’s GFG conglomerate refused to comment on the suggestion that a search warrant had been produced by the watchdog.
ASIC’s deepening investigation comes a month after it said that three of GFG Alliance’s companies had been ordered by the Supreme Court of New South Wales to lodge outstanding annual reports with it.
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It is the latest headache to hit Mr Gupta, whose companies remain under investigation by the Serious Fraud Office in the UK.
Last week, the Official Receiver took control of Speciality Steels UK following a winding-up petition from creditors led by Greensill Capital, the collapsed finance firm.
Mr Gupta remains intent on buying SSUK back, and has assembled financing from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, Sky News revealed last week.
SSUK employs nearly 1,500 people at steel plants in South Yorkshire, and makes highly engineered steel products for use in sectors such as aerospace, automotive and oil and gas.
“[Gupta Family Group] will now continue to advance its bid for the business in collaboration with prospective debt and equity partners and will present its plan to the official receiver,” Jeffrey Kabel, chief transformation officer, at Liberty Steel, said after SSUK’s collapse.
“GFG continues to believe it has the ideas, management expertise and commitment to lead SSUK into the future and attract major investment.”
“The plan that GFG presented to the court would have secured new investment in the UK steel industry, protecting jobs and establishing a sustainable operational platform under a new governance structure with independent oversight,” Mr Kabel added.
“Instead, liquidation will now impose prolonged uncertainty and significant costs on UK taxpayers for settlements and related expenses, despite the availability of a commercial solution.”
Mr Gupta wants to hand control of SSUK to his family in a bid to alleviate concerns about his influence.
One source close to the situation claimed that the ownership structure devised by Mr Gupta would be independent, ring-fenced from him and have “robust standards of governance”.
Behind Tata Steel and British Steel, SSUK is the third-largest steel producer in the country.
Other parts of Mr Gupta’s empire have been showing signs of financial stress for years.
Mr Gupta is said to have explored whether he could persuade the government to step in and support SSUK using the legislation enacted to take control of British Steel’s operations.
His overtures were dismissed by Whitehall officials.
He had previously sought government aid during the pandemic but that plea was also rejected by ministers.
The world’s most valuable company, and first to be valued at $4trn (£2.9trn), beat market expectations in keenly anticipated financial results.
Microchip maker Nvidia recorded revenues of $46.7bn (£34.6bn) in just three months up to July, latest financial data from the company showed, slightly better than Wall Street observers had expected.
The company’s performance is seen as a bellwether for artificial intelligence (AI) demand, with investors paying close attention to see whether the hype is overblown or if significant investment will pay off.
Originally a creator of gaming graphics hardware, Nvidia’s chips help power AI capability – and the UK’s most powerful supercomputer.
Nvidia’s graphics processors underpin products such as ChatGPT from OpenAI and Gemini from Google.
Other tech giants – Microsoft, Meta and Amazon – make up Nvidia’s biggest customers and are paying large sums to embed AI into their products.
Why does it matter?
Nvidia has been central to the boom in AI development and the surge in tech stock valuations, which has seen stock markets reach record highs.
It represents about 8% of the value of the US S&P 500 stock market index of companies relied on to be stable and profitable.
Strong results will continue to fuel record highs in the market. Conversely, results that fail to live up to the hype could trigger a market tumble.
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Nvidia itself saw its share price rise more than 40% over the past year. Its value impacts anyone with cash in the US stock market, such as pension funds.
The S&P 500 rose 14% over the past year, and the tech-company-heavy NASDAQ gained 21%, largely thanks to Nvidia.
As such, its earnings can move markets as much as major economic or monetary policy announcements, like an interest rate decision.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer with NVIDIA chief Huang at London Tech Week. Pic: AP
What next?
Revenue rises are forecast to continue to rise as Nvidia said it expected a rise to roughly $54bn (£40bn) in the next three months, more than the $53.14bn (£39.3bn) anticipated by analysts.
This excludes any potential shipments to China as export of Nvidia’s H20 chip, designed with the Biden administration’s export crackdown on advanced AI powering chips in mind, had been banned under US national security grounds.
But in recent weeks, Nvidia and another chipmaker, AMD, reached an unprecedented agreement to pay the Trump administration a 15% portion of China sales in return for export licences to send chips to China.
There were no H20 sales at all to China in the second quarter of the year, the period for which results were released on Wednesday evening.
Previously, 13% of Nvidia’s revenue came from China, with nearly 50% coming from the US.
Market reaction
Despite the expectation-beating results, Nvidia shares were down in after-hours trading, as the massive revenue rises previously booked by the company were not repeated in the latest quarter.
Compared to a year ago, revenues rose 56% and 6% compared to the three months up to April.
The absence of Chinese sales in forecasts appeared to disappoint.