Energy crisis: How worried should we be about the lights going out?

Published

2 years ago

October 7, 2022

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The latest information on the risks facing gas and electricity supplies suggests there is an increased risk of blackouts this winter – but they can be prevented.

National Grid’s Electricity System Operator’s (ESO) updated report on the pressures facing power generators revealed contingency plans for three-hour blackouts in areas where gas-fuelled power falls short of demand.

A separate National Grid Gas Transmission study suggested that the country would be relying more on LNG (liquefied natural gas) supplies from the US and Qatar this winter.

That is because of uncertainty over whether traditional EU imports would be available because of the squeeze on supplies in the bloc following Russia’s war in Ukraine – intensifying pressure on the UK power grid as a result.

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Here, Sky News examines the pressures on UK supplies, what may be done to help keep the lights on and just how perilous the country’s situation could become if a prolonged cold snap arrives.

How worried should I be about the outlook reports?

There is no getting away from the fact that these updates make for worse reading that the “early view” released by the ESO in July.

Then, it did not foresee the prospect of the lights going out, despite obvious pressure on supplies across Europe.

Thursday’s warning could not be starker, which is why they hope the risk of blackouts can be averted through an energy-saving scheme that will pay households not to use electricity-heavy products during peak hours and keep five coal-powered generators, that would otherwise have closed, open and on standby. More on the energy-saving scheme later.

Why is gas the main concern?

Gas-fired power stations account for more than 40% of UK electricity generation while gas is also responsible for heating the vast majority of homes.

Natural gas supplies have been severely disrupted since the war – forcing wholesale prices up and threatening much of continental Europe with shortages as most, such as Germany, have previously relied on gas from Russia.

While the UK holds its own in the warmer months, thanks to a mix of nuclear, wind, North Sea gas output and imports from Norway, Qatar and the US, we tend to lean more on the continent during winter to balance the gap between supply and demand.

This is because we lack gas storage.

But we have more gas than we need…

It’s true. Currently.

The UK has been exporting gas at record volumes since late spring to help EU nations fill their storage after Vladimir Putin turned off the taps.

The lack of gas storage, however, means that we tend to rely on imports in times of high demand such as winter.

Only 70% of British gas supplies last time around came from the North Sea and Norway. It meant that supplies via ship of LNG and from the continent accounted for the rest.

What are the main threats?

The big one has to be, energy experts agree, the risk of a prolonged cold snap.

Unplanned power station outages too, as well as the inability to import electricity from Europe if there are, for example, nuclear power plant outages in France or gas shortages across the continent. Gas shortages will reduce the ability for EU countries to generate electricity.

The Gas Winter Outlook saw the potential for the shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe to impact the UK’s ability to secure imports, should they be required.

As a result, it saw LNG acting as the primary source of supply flexibility during the winter months.

“In the unlikely event there is insufficient gas supply available in GB to meet demand, and should the market be unable to resolve the resultant imbalance, we have the tools required to ensure the safety and integrity of the gas system in the event of a Gas Supply Emergency.

“All possible measures would be taken to minimise the extent to which we use these tools”, National Grid said.

What are those possible measures and what is a Gas Supply Emergency?

A Gas Supply Emergency can be activated in stages if suppliers are unable to guarantee gas for homes and businesses.

It could mean that some customers, starting with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a temporary period.

On the power side, the ability for coal-fired power stations to restart generation has been retained, the ESO previously announced, to help cover any imbalance between supply and demand for electricity.

It has been utilised, most recently, early this year because of poor wind power generation – due to a lack of… wind.

So what does this all mean for the lights?

The message seems to be that the lights should not go out – but we need your help to achieve it.

The “demand flexibility service” will run from November to March and households can sign up via their energy supplier.

In return for not charging your electric car or running dishwashers, tumble driers or washing machines during times of peak energy use during the day, you will be paid.

It is expected to be implemented 12 times, whatever happens, to ensure people get rewarded for being part of the scheme.

It is hoped it will deliver 2GW of power savings to balance supply and demand, preventing any disruption.

Has anything like the ‘demand flexibility service’ been done before?

Yes, on a big scale for industrial users of energy. Companies can be paid not to use power during times of increased demand in order to balance electricity supply and demand.

A small-scale trial of incentivising households to reduce electricity at peak times was carried out earlier this year with energy company Octopus Energy.

From that trial, the National Grid has been able to say, “we successfully proved the proof of concept for a demand flexibility service”.

Work has been going on between the National Grid, suppliers, aggregators and consumer groups to scale up to making demand flexibility a national service.

Has this been done before anywhere else?

Countries across Europe have been working on plans to reduce their electricity demand.

Just last month France‘s national grid operator said it might have to ask households, local government and businesses to reduce their consumption at peak times. It aims to reduce electricity use by 10%.

Germany has planned to reduce its gas usage by 2% through a range of public and private measures. From last month most public buildings have not been heated above 19C, public monuments have not been lit up and heating private swimming pools has been banned.

Will electricity prices come down?

Not yet. The ESO said on Thursday that, notwithstanding the mitigation measures, it is “highly likely” that the wholesale price of gas and electricity will remain “very high” throughout winter.

UK

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield quits Labour – criticising Sir Keir Starmer in resignation letter

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2 hours ago

September 28, 2024

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Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield quits Labour - criticising Sir Keir Starmer in resignation letter

Canterbury MP Rosie Duffield has resigned from the Labour Party.

The 53-year-old MP is the first to jump ship since the general election and in her resignation letter criticised the prime minister for accepting thousands of pounds worth of gifts.

She told Sir Keir Starmer the reason for leaving now is “the programme of policies you seem determined to stick to”, despite their unpopularity with the electorate and MPs.

In her letter she accused the prime minister and his top team of “sleaze, nepotism and apparent avarice” which are “off the scale”.

“I’m so ashamed of what you and your inner circle have done to tarnish and humiliate our once proud party,” she said.

Sir Keir has faced backlash after a Sky News report revealed he had received substantially more freebies than any other MP since becoming Labour leader.

Since December 2019, the prime minister received £107,145 in gifts, benefits, and hospitality – a specific category in parliament’s register of MPs’ interests.

Ms Duffield, who has previously clashed with the prime minister on gender issues, attacked the government for pursuing “cruel and unnecessary” policies as she resigned the Labour whip.

She criticised the decision to keep the two-child benefit cap and means-test the winter fuel payment, and accused the prime minister of “hypocrisy” over his acceptance of free gifts from donors.

“Since the change of government in July, the revelations of hypocrisy have been staggering and increasingly outrageous,” she said.

“I cannot put into words how angry I and my colleagues are at your total lack of understanding about how you have made us all appear.”

Ms Duffield also mentioned the recent “treatment of Diane Abbott”, who said she thought she had been barred from standing by Labour ahead of the general election, before Sir Keir said she would be allowed to defend her Hackney North and Stoke Newington seat for the party.

Her relationship with the Labour leadership has long been strained and her decision to quit the party comes after seven other Labour MPs were suspended for rebelling by voting for a motion calling for the two-child benefit cap to be abolished.

“Someone with far-above-average wealth choosing to keep the Conservatives’ two-child limit to benefit payments which entrenches children in poverty, while inexplicably accepting expensive personal gifts of designer suits and glasses costing more than most of those people can grasp – this is entirely undeserving of holding the title of Labour prime minister,” she said.

Ms Duffield said she will continue to represent her constituents as an independent MP, “guided by my core Labour values”.

UK

King Charles hails ‘uniquely special’ Scotland as it marks Holyrood milestone – before being hugged by woman

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2 hours ago

September 28, 2024

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King Charles hails 'uniquely special' Scotland as it marks Holyrood milestone - before being hugged by woman

The King has paid tribute to Scotland as a “uniquely special place” for the Royal Family as he marked the 25th anniversary of the Scottish parliament.

At the ceremony to commemorate a quarter of a century since parliament opened at Holyrood, the King said: “Speaking from a personal perspective, Scotland has always had a uniquely special place in the hearts of my family and myself.

“My beloved grandmother was proudly Scottish, my late mother especially treasured the time spent at Balmoral, and it was there in the most beloved of places, where she chose to spend her final days.”

He said we are all “united by our love of Scotland”, paying tribute to its “natural beauty”, “strength of character”, “diversity of its people”, “passions and frequently deeply held beliefs”.

“From the central belt to the north Highlands, across the islands in Ayrshire, in the Borders, the cities, towns and villages, all the coastal communities, who I wonder, could not fail to be moved by this complex Caledonian kaleidoscope?,” he asked as presiding officer Alison Johnstone and the Queen sat beside him.

After he gave the speech, the King was hugged by a member of the public – who said she did so “because of him being unwell”.

The 75-year-old was diagnosed with cancer in February but has since returned to public duties.

Yvonne Macmillan, 59, from East Renfrewshire, attended the anniversary ceremony with her husband Russell who is registered blind and chosen as a “local hero” for work in their area.

“I asked him if he was feeling better and if I could give him a hug. I actually said to him: ‘Can I hug you?’,” she said.

“As I hugged him I said, ‘God bless you’, so it was like God giving him a hug.”

While Sir Tony Blair’s Labour government legislated for Scottish devolution in 1997 – parliament officially opened at Holyrood on 1 July 1999.

The King has made six visits to the parliament since 1999 – while his mother Queen Elizabeth II made 10 visits during her lifetime.

Scottish First Minister John Swinney is one of a number of MSPs who have been at Holyrood since the start of devolution.

He said in his own speech in Edinburgh on Saturday that the parliament has “placed itself at the very heart of the nation”, describing it as a “vessel of enlightenment, invention and creativity”.

The SNP’s Christine Grahame is another MSP who has been there since the start.

“Free tuition, free prescriptions, game-changing policies to tackle child poverty, the ban on smoking, the baby box, ScotRail back in public ownership – none of this would have been possible without the Scottish parliament and the strength of our commitment to self-determination,” she said on Saturday.

The King said the devolved parliament has the ability to “touch and to improve the lives of so many individuals”.

But he added that “there remains much more to be done” for Scotland, the rest of the UK, particularly with regards to climate change.

“Let this moment therefore be the beginning of the next chapter,” he told those assembled.

“The achievement of the past and the commitment shown in the present give us the soundest basis for confidence in the future.”

UK

Phone thief caught red-handed hours after snatching device from woman’s hand in Croydon

Published

2 hours ago

September 28, 2024

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Phone thief caught red-handed hours after snatching device from woman's hand in Croydon

A moped riding phone thief was caught red-handed after police tracked the device down hours after he snatched it from a woman’s hand.

CCTV footage released by police showed a masked moped rider mount the pavement in Croydon, south London, to swipe a phone from a woman’s hand on 6 March, while another victim had theirs stolen while they waited for a bus an hour later.

Amari Scott, 20, looked surprised when confronted by officers inside a shop, where he was found with two mobile phones.

“We’ve just had a moped rob a mobile phone off the pavement and the phone is pinging in this location,” one of the officers told him in body-worn camera footage before Scott was handcuffed and led away.

Police also recovered a stolen motorbike and Scott, from Sutton, south London, was later jailed for four years.

Two teenagers who committed four robberies in the space of just half an hour were also arrested as part of a crackdown in Croydon.

Aged 16 and 17, the teens were issued with referral orders after pleading guilty to charges of robbery, attempted robbery and attempted grievous bodily harm.

They were behind a spree of eight robberies across Croydon and nearby Bromley, including four within 30 minutes on the morning of 5 August.

Their crimes, which included the knife point robbery of a rough sleeper outside Croydon library, were caught on CCTV.

One of the teenagers tried to discard a knife before she was arrested after a foot chase, telling officers: “The knife wasn’t mine”.

The other ran away, leaving a knife and his bag, but was lying in bed at home when he was arrested shortly after.

The Metropolitan Police said officers are intensifying efforts to tackle robbery and theft, encouraging victims to report incidents as they happen to increase the chances of catching the criminals.

Chief Inspector James Weston said: “We understand the impact that robbery has on victims – it is invasive and frightening.

“That’s why our teams are working so hard to deter and catch offenders to reassure our local community.

“Thanks to the hard work of officers, our partners and community grassroots organisations, we are stepping up our efforts and tackling the issues that matter most to the people of Croydon.”